1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,840 Speaker 1: So statements for me will not add anything here. And 2 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: when it comes to the Arctic, I think President Trump 3 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: is right, other leaders in NATO are right. We need 4 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: to defend the Arctic. We know that these sea lanes 5 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,120 Speaker 1: are opening up. We know that China and Russia are 6 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: increasingly active in the Arctic. There are eight countries bordering 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: only Arctic. Seven are a member of NATO, that's Finland 8 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: and Sweden and Norway and Denmark, Iceland, Canada and the US. 9 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: And there's only one country bordering on the Arctic outside NATO, 10 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: and that's Russia. And I would argue that it's a 11 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: ninth country, which is China, which is increasingly active in 12 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: the Arctic region. So President Trump and other leaders are right. 13 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: We have to do more there. We have to protect 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: the Arctic against Russian and Chinese influences. That's exactly what 15 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 1: Natal ambassadors design us to do in September. We are 16 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,400 Speaker 1: working on that, making sure that collectively will we defend 17 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:50,560 Speaker 1: the Arctic region. 18 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 2: That is Mark Root, that is the Secretary General of NATO. 19 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: There is just no question that a deal is going 20 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 2: to be struck and you are going to see Greenland 21 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 2: become part of the United States in some part. And 22 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: I love Georgia Maloney who has been saying, you guys 23 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 2: are getting all worked up. You want to get out 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 2: of NATO. What next we store McDonald's, No, McDonald's. 25 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 3: What what are we gonna do? 26 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: Because those people who are rational know that this is 27 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 2: all just for show. A deal is going to be made. 28 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:38,959 Speaker 2: That's happening, and it's in Europe's best interest. Tony Katz, 29 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 2: Tony Kats today, good to be here, good to be 30 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:48,840 Speaker 2: with you. What is nuts is that Europe suspended their 31 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 2: trade agreement with the United States. Why why, why, why 32 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: would you do this? American markets will just throw that 33 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: We're not going to go to war over Greenland. European 34 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 2: markets are like, what the bloody heck is wrong with you? 35 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: You worked out this trade deal, as economists have said, 36 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 2: not a bad trade deal at all, and now you're 37 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: going to blow it up to prove what you could 38 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 2: stand up to Trump. And then of course there's a 39 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 2: question of whether or not you actually did it, or 40 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 2: whether or not you're just saying you're going to do it. 41 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: I spoke with doctor Matt Will, economist at the University 42 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: of Indianapolis about this to get an idea of what 43 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 2: exactly the Europeans are doing. Talk to me about what 44 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 2: this trade deal is and how the whole thing comes together. 45 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 2: The Europeans are stating that they are going to suspend 46 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: the trade deal regarding the conversation about tariffs if we 47 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 2: don't get Greenland. Walk me through the trade deal and 48 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: what it is you're seeing. 49 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 3: So this trade deal was struck last year. You know, 50 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 3: Trump started the TI war in April, and then he 51 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 3: signed signed. I don't know if it was signed or 52 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 3: if it was agreed to, but the details are all 53 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: worked out, and there's the key elements of these deals, 54 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 3: where for example, there was energy purchases that the EU 55 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 3: committed to buying a significant part of LNG from the 56 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 3: United States, plus oil, plus nuclear fuels, and this is 57 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 3: supposed to reduce their reliance on Russia. So that was 58 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 3: probably the key part. Then Trump got what he usually gets. 59 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 3: He got this six hundred billion dollars of new investment 60 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 3: into the US economy from European companies. He's you know, 61 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: he walks around saying I got a billion here, a 62 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 3: trillion there. They agreed to reduce the terrorists. You know, 63 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 3: he's got that cap everybody's got to pay at least 64 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 3: fifteen percent. Okay, So that was part of the deal. 65 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 3: They had a zero for zero on aircrafts, So between 66 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: Boeing and Airbus. I mean, there's a lot of good things. 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 3: It was worked out, it was hammered. This was the 68 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 3: art of the deal. This was quintessential Trump. He got 69 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 3: the deal with Europe. I was in favor of using 70 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 3: the terroriffs. I'm not in favor of the fifteen percent tariffs. 71 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 3: But he got a deal. Everyone's happy. Now Europe is 72 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 3: going to throw it in the trash. This is so 73 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 3: bad for them to throw this deal in the trash 74 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 3: simply because of a threat. You said it, a threat 75 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 3: of ten to twenty five percent, and so throwing the 76 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 3: deal in the trash. 77 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 2: Man, I have been harping on this and trying to 78 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 2: make sure everybody's aware of this, that the argument made 79 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 2: about the tariffs hasn't happened. It is the difference between 80 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,040 Speaker 2: the saying it and the doing it. Is the doing it, 81 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 2: but the saying it has gotten just an outrageous reaction. 82 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 2: I'm not asking you where your position is on Greenland. Rather, 83 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 2: I want to stick with what we're hearing about the economics. 84 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis, 85 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: the conversation from President Trump has been if you get 86 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 2: in the way, if you aren't helpful in getting us 87 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: the United States, getting us into place to secure greenlands, 88 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 2: well we are going to place the terrify and you 89 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: were going to increase that tariff over time. So you 90 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 2: will do what it is we want as a matter 91 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: of economic policy. 92 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 3: You like this plan, which part of it? 93 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 2: The threat just doesn't the saying of it engage a 94 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:28,919 Speaker 2: level of destabilization. 95 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 3: It's okay, So you're you're you're talking about the economics 96 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 3: the economics of the threat versus the economics that of 97 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 3: actually doing it well. 98 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: Talk about first the economics of the threat and then 99 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: what happens if we do it well. 100 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 3: The economics of the threat is self imposed paranoia. It's 101 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: Trump derangement syndrome. I mean, even you know Maloney, she 102 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,799 Speaker 3: was the one who said stop overreacting to what tariff, 103 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 3: what Trump is saying. So the threat is how Trump acts. 104 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 3: But still to this day, four years of a presidency, 105 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 3: a year plus into a presidency, they still don't understand 106 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 3: how the guy works. He throws something crazy out there 107 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: to the extreme, and she's trying to explain to the 108 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 3: world calm down, people, calm down. He's just talking. So 109 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 3: the threat is Trump derangement syndrome. They just don't know 110 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: how to react to when he says something. The actual 111 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 3: tariff that's not good. It's not disastrous, Okay, it's just 112 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 3: it's ten to twenty five percent on top of the 113 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 3: fifteen if the original deal sticks. But as we just discussed, 114 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 3: they're going to throw it in the trash. So the 115 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 3: threat is Trump derangement syndrome. The actual tariff would not 116 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:47,479 Speaker 3: be good because he's going to target specifically Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, 117 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 3: UK and Finland, the ones who are really being the 118 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 3: problem with Greenland. 119 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 2: See and so right, you're you're correct. I was going 120 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 2: to correct you, but no, you're you're right. You're correct 121 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: that that's the way they phrase it, or being phrased. 122 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,599 Speaker 2: They're the ones causing the problem. I make the argument, 123 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 2: of course, that the Europeans know exactly how this is 124 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 2: gonna go down. They absolutely know it's gonna happen. They 125 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 2: know that the United States is going to get some 126 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: part of Greenland, right, they're not negotiating for the whole 127 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 2: island in another shape for part of the island, and 128 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 2: then a place over here in a place over there, 129 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 2: and maybe a condo by the beach. And all this 130 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: is going to happen, and so they're playing to their 131 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 2: own constituencies to show strength. What's happening with markets in 132 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: Europe as this happens, you know, you see, hey, we're 133 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 2: gonna suspend the trade deal. And what was interesting at 134 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 2: first blush I immediately went to check the markets and 135 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 2: they were up for all. They were down yesterday, like hey, 136 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 2: you know the other day, like eight hundred some points. 137 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 2: Markets at one point after this got announced the suspension 138 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 2: of the trade deal, We're up over four hundred and 139 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 2: fifty was the Dow. The Nasdaq was over two fifty up. 140 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: So it doesn't seem like people are particularly upset about it. 141 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 2: What are they saying in Europe? 142 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 3: Well, in Europe they're negative. The tax is down, that's 143 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 3: the German index. The indexes in Europe are reacting negatively 144 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 3: this because this is going to hurt the European economy, 145 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 3: even though you and I know it's a tax and 146 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 3: we will pay the tax. And all the new research 147 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 3: shows that US citizens pay the tax on a tariff. 148 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 3: This is going to harm the European economy. Europe had 149 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 3: a deal. They're throwing their own deal in the trash bin. 150 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: This is bad for Europe and so European markets are reacting. 151 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 3: So they have the same problem we do. They have 152 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 3: politicians who do dumb economic things, so throwing out the 153 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 3: deal that we had. By the way, let me clarify this, 154 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 3: the threat from Trump is not a good thing. We 155 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 3: just talked about it. The threat is not good. The 156 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 3: implementation would not be good. But Europe is shooting themselves 157 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 3: in the foot. They're doing an even dumber thing because 158 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 3: they're throwing out the old deal. That's what's hurting the 159 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 3: European market. As the speak this moment. 160 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: A better way to see it is we could see 161 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 2: American markets going up because Trump in the speech at 162 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 2: Davos ruled out military intervention, yes, and markets in Europe 163 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 2: going down because they just shot themselves in the foot, 164 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 2: punched themselves in the face, or whatever it is you 165 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: want to say there. 166 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 3: Why would I repeat what you just said? You said 167 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 3: it exactly correct. 168 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 2: So what comes next? I agree with you about Georgia 169 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: Maloney and It's an argument I've made here. Everyone just 170 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 2: calmed down. The deal is going to get made. Is 171 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: this another example of they say they're going to do something, 172 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: but it hasn't been done yet. Or did the Europeans 173 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 2: Are they actually doing it? Did they actually suspend the 174 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 2: trade deal? And right now they're playing by the old 175 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 2: rules that are not better for them. 176 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 3: Okay. The reason I love that question is are they 177 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 3: going to suspend the trade deal? They are playing Trump's game, 178 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 3: but they're not as good as Trump at the game. 179 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 3: They're making an outrageous threat and they don't understand they 180 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,559 Speaker 3: may be forced to follow through with the threat, and 181 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 3: they're going to look in the mirror and think, oh crap, 182 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 3: we can't follow through on our threat. So they're trying 183 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 3: to play a game of chicken with the guy who's 184 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 3: the best in the world at playing a game of chicken. 185 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 3: But let me put on my hat. Okay. I grew up. 186 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,559 Speaker 3: My dad was career military. I'm an Air Force brat. 187 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 3: I know a little bit about this world, and I 188 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 3: can tell you that in my opinion, I'm putting in 189 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 3: my crystal ball. I'm gonna do what I tell you. 190 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 3: I never do. Trump wants a huge military presence there. 191 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 3: If they give him massive amounts of land to put 192 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 3: up military bases, he'll be fine, I predict because just 193 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 3: from my historical knowledge, my experience in my life, that's 194 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 3: what he wants. He just some forward deployment bases that 195 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: are strategically located that we have permanent access to. He 196 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 3: doesn't know what the whole country I mean, he does, 197 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 3: but I think that's going to be the middle ground. 198 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: And Europe doesn't know how to negotiate. They are bad 199 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 3: at negotiating. 200 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 2: That is doctor Matt Well, economist at the University of Indianapolis. 201 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 2: I appreciate you taking the time to be with us. 202 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 2: More is coming up. I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony 203 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: Katz today.