1 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: Live from val Hartber and the Crossroads of America. It's 2 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: Tony Katz today. 3 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 2: It's not that I have been led to believe that 4 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 2: Republicans don't want to win. It's that they have told me, 5 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 2: in no uncertain terms, whether it's members of Congress, House 6 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:29,639 Speaker 2: and Senate, whether it's the influencer chattering class of absolute fools, 7 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: they have no interest in winning. They have no interest 8 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: in a fight. They don't actually want to fight, they 9 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 2: don't know how to fight. They would rather complain about 10 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: forever wars than ending them. 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: Now, this is going. 12 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: To be seen as heresy amongst a lot of people, 13 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: some of whom are MAGA and some of whom are 14 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,480 Speaker 2: part of this influencer set that thinks Tucker is making 15 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: a point I put forth to you that he's not. 16 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 1: The point is. 17 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: We win or we lose, and you don't win until 18 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 2: the deal is done. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, Good 19 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: to be here, Good to be with you. Noah Roffman 20 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: joins me right now from National Review. That's where you 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: find his work and also his latest book, which will 22 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: soon be available, Blood in Progress, A Century of Left 23 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 2: Wing Violence, available on Amazon dot Com in May or 24 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: wherever fine books are sold. And I was overjoyed to 25 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 2: see your piece over at National Review last week, this 26 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 2: regarding this very concept about winning America and where is 27 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: it there? It is America and Israel remind the world 28 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 2: how wars are fought to victory. And what I am 29 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 2: saying is that it very much seems when I'm hearing 30 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: this talk of we could declare victory and be done 31 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 2: right now, My gosh, we've already achieved everything. The regime 32 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 2: is not gone. You still have missiles flying, there's still 33 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 2: the possible ability of oil being sold to China and 34 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: therefore dollars being utilized for terrorism. You still have because 35 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: the regime has not been dismantled, destroyed, obliterated, however you 36 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 2: want to call it. 37 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: The people still under threat. 38 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 2: And even if you think that the Iranian people still 39 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 2: under threat and not being able to live their lives. 40 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,399 Speaker 1: It's something you shouldn't concern yourself with. 41 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 2: One can clearly say if President Trump said help is 42 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:26,519 Speaker 2: on its way, that's what he meant. So let's start 43 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 2: with my original premise. Your story there at National Review. 44 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: Are Republicans afraid of winning? 45 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 3: I don't think Republicans are afraid of winning. I think 46 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 3: Republicans are afraid of losing, which is a prudent consideration. However, 47 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 3: it's a consideration that needs to be informed by more 48 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: than the perspective that you've gleaned from the first eleven 49 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 3: days of this conflict. It's a perspective that needs to 50 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 3: incorporate the twenty five years or more of wargaming that 51 00:02:57,600 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 3: has been going on in Washington, in Jerusalem, and Westtern 52 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 3: and capitals in Europe about how this conflict would unfold. 53 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 3: And so far it looks nothing like what we anticipated, 54 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 3: and it looked nothing like what we anticipated in a 55 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,640 Speaker 3: good way, in a way that favors the West. So, 56 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: just like any conflict, the enemy gets a vote, no 57 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 3: plan survives first contact with the enemy, as the axiom holds, 58 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 3: and that's all true in this conflict. We can't control 59 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 3: every outcome, but we control a lot of outcomes. 60 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 4: So we should start. 61 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 3: Back in let's say two thousand mid adds two thousand 62 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 3: two to two thousand and seven, and the anticipation of 63 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,279 Speaker 3: what this war would look like, and the wargames anticipated 64 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 3: that Arean would activate its network of proxies, that Europeans 65 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 3: and Americans would be targeted on the homeland in the 66 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 3: United States and in Europe, as well as our vulnerable 67 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 3: positions in places like Iraq and Syria. Sleeper cells would 68 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: activate in Latin America and perhaps cross through the border 69 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 3: southern border. Hezblah would roar to Life and Lebanon and 70 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 3: rain missiles down on Israel, crippling cyber attacks across the 71 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 3: Western landscape. Governmental and commercial interests like banks would be 72 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 3: significantly disrupted. Individual financial transactions would be disrupted. Bombs, missiles, drones, 73 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 3: and mines would close off the Hormuz straight for the 74 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 3: foreseeable future, creating crippling pressure on the energy markets. We 75 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,720 Speaker 3: were anticipated to say, within days, if not weeks, of 76 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 3: that conflict two hundred three hundred dollars dollars a barrel 77 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 3: for Brent crude, to say nothing of the military campaign 78 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 3: on the ground, which would likely necessitate a significant ground 79 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 3: invasion upwards of five hundred thousand ground troops US ground 80 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 3: troops maybe a million in arms. 81 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 4: On the ground. 82 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: By the end of combat operations, it was anticipated that 83 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 3: about a million people would be dead, civilians and military alike. 84 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: Iranian cities would be in ruins, compelling the West to 85 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 3: commit untold fortune to its rebuilding, because those who survived 86 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 3: the conflict will mainly live in a state of economic 87 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 3: devastation for years, and some perhaps will pick up arms 88 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 3: in the form of insurgent groups to fight the invading 89 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 3: US force. According to vox dot com, a civil war 90 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 3: would follow the regimes collapse, followed by a massive refugee 91 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 3: crisis across the region, and pockets of instability would create 92 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 3: conditions in which terrorist groups, transnational islam As terrorist groups 93 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 3: would thrive and project power outward. 94 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 4: So this was the scenario. 95 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 2: This was the scenario that was put forth by the 96 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: people in the think tanks who say, well, if you 97 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 2: do this, here's what's going to happen. Worst case scenario, 98 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 2: here's what you got. That was the thoughts in the 99 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 2: early two thousands right. 100 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 3: So to date, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, who's in 101 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 3: charge of this campaign, the US alone has struck five 102 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 3: five hundred military targets. Our goal is simply to eliminate 103 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 3: Iran's capacity to project power across its borders, and we're 104 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 3: doing that. Iranian missile launches are down ninety two percent 105 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 3: from the outset of hostilities, its missile stockpiles are roughly depleted. 106 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 3: Those that aren't depleted are entombed in these underground missile cities. 107 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 3: We have drones that orbit above those that we haven't 108 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 3: hit and just simply strike when they see activity. Roughly 109 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 3: sixty percent of Iran ballistic missile launchers have been disabled, 110 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 3: so even if it has significant stockpiles, and it still does, 111 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 3: it doesn't have the means to launch them. The Iranian 112 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 3: Navy is now fodder for artificial reefs. We've hit approximately 113 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 3: sixty vessels, including every one of the most advanced class 114 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 3: of ships warships, the Solamani class. 115 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 4: They're all gone. 116 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 3: Sixteen Iranian mind layers have been destroyed. We've hit ten 117 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:26,480 Speaker 3: of Iran's eighteen air fields, rendering most of them just 118 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 3: completely inoperable, hitting their their runways. For example. The Iranian 119 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 3: Air Force is a non issue. The United States now maintains, 120 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 3: if not air supremacy or superiority, which allows us to 121 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: back off these really expensive rockets, stand off exquisite munitions 122 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 3: they're called, and lean more into gravity bombs, which are 123 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 3: you know, dumb dumb bombs as you remember them from 124 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 3: the twentieth century. But all of them, all of them 125 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 3: are fitted with jade am kits which allow them to 126 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 3: be precision, precision guided munitions. So people who say things 127 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 3: like we're carpet bombing US cities just don't understand Iranian 128 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 3: cities just don'tnderstand what our capabilities are. We just don't 129 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 3: do that anymore because we don't have to. In addition, 130 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 3: just as was the case in Venezuela, Iranian technology, or 131 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 3: rather Russian and Chinese technology stealth radars for example, these 132 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 3: advanced as three hundred as four hundred anti air batteries 133 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: are just simply not a factor in this fight. So 134 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 3: we've demonstrated, we've conveyed to the capitals in Beijing and 135 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 3: Moscow precisely how limited their capacities are. Now, that's not 136 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 3: to say that there aren't problems with this whole campaign, 137 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 3: and in particular the Iranian strategy to project force outward 138 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 3: to draw the Gulf into this fight. That was also anticipated. 139 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 3: In fact, it was anticipated that the Gulf States would 140 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: sue for peace, or if not, at least ensure their 141 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,239 Speaker 3: neutrality by virtue of how they were being hit. 142 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 4: And the opposite has happened. 143 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 3: It's emboldened the Gulf States to support this campaign. Tacitly 144 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 3: or even actively in some cases. And we're seeing, you know, 145 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,679 Speaker 3: some efforts by the Uranian regime to create this oil 146 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: price spike that we also anticipated would be the case 147 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 3: with the cutting off of the Strait of Hormuz. For 148 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 3: the most part, however, the Strait of Hormones is closed 149 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 3: off not because it's mined, not because missiles are flying. 150 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 3: Short range missiles are a significant threat, but they're not 151 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 3: the threat that is closed off the strait. It's largely 152 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 3: market considerations, insurance and what have you that has put 153 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 3: traffic to a halt, which is a financial weapon, not 154 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: necessarily a kinnetic weapon, and we have the means to 155 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 3: deal with that as well, but it's not what we 156 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 3: anticipated in two thousand and two or two thousand and 157 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 3: seven what this conflict would look like. 158 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: Talking to them, the enemy. 159 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 3: Always gets a vote, but the enemy's vote is attenuated 160 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 3: significantly in ways that I don't think is being really 161 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 3: appreciated by lay observers of this conflict. 162 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: So I appreciate a full layout of what happened there 163 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: the background talking to Noah Rothman of National Review, And 164 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: we should note that as we're discussing this, the news 165 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 2: out today that the IEA, the International Energy Agency two 166 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: member countries, they're going to release four hundred million barrels 167 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: of oil to address the shortfall. It still doesn't change 168 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 2: what has to happen in the Straits, the removal of 169 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: minds and possibly the escorting of ships through. 170 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: We can get to that at another time. 171 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 2: But I started this conversation with our Republicans afraid of winning. 172 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you why I bring that up. 173 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: Now. What you're saying is is that everything they thought 174 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 2: would be true is not true, did not come to pass. 175 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, the opposite has taken place. 176 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:43,199 Speaker 2: This was Senator Josh Hawley Missouri on Fox News yesterday. 177 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 5: Well, I think that he's achieved his objectives the way 178 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 5: that he's laid them out, and you just put it beautiful, Jesse. 179 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 5: I mean, what is there really that's left to do 180 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 5: that we haven't already done. I mean, we have demonstrated 181 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 5: to the world and anybody who's watching by the way, 182 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 5: that we have overwhelming military superiority and we know how. 183 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 4: To use it. 184 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 5: We have totally destroyed forever their nuclear program. We have 185 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 5: destroyed their ballistic missiles, we have destroyed their Navy. I mean, 186 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 5: this has been a total success in whatever it's been 187 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 5: eleven days, and I thought the president's remarks last night 188 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 5: that he could declare victory today and it would be 189 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 5: a one victory. I think it's true. I think we 190 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 5: ought to say to our heroes, thank you for a. 191 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:22,960 Speaker 4: Job well done. 192 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 5: This has been absolutely amazing, it's been astounding, it's been historic, 193 00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 5: and now it's time to declare victory. 194 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 2: Now allow me for a moment. I have no problem 195 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 2: with declaring victory. But if the victory is not the 196 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 2: end of the regime, if the victory is not the 197 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 2: end of anybody connected to the eyetoe. 198 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 1: Of being in power. 199 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 2: If the end if victory it is not the end 200 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 2: of dollars flowing to terrorist organizations, whether whoever's left of 201 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 2: Hamas has blow or anywhere else, well, then it's not victory. 202 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 2: If it's not the people running or deciding their leadership 203 00:10:59,280 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 2: and running. 204 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 1: Their own life lives. I don't even begin to. 205 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 2: Understand how it's victory, which leads me back to my 206 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 2: initial question. Are Republicans afraid of winning? Because what I 207 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 2: hear from Josh Holly, and you could argue that I'm wrong, 208 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 2: I'm taking it in the wrong direction, it's super possible. 209 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: I think that this is a cut and run. 210 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: I think if you're saying they're afraid to lose, not 211 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 2: afraid to win. Being afraid to lose is an insane proposition, 212 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 2: in a foolhardy one. And that's what this sounds like, 213 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 2: is have we achieved the objectives? 214 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 3: No and premature withdrawal. No matter how much bravado you 215 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: package it in, is never going to be anything less 216 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 3: than pusillanimous. And the Senator and many people in the 217 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 3: political class, particularly on the Republican side, seem to think 218 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 3: that they can convey messages that are cowardly in substance, 219 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 3: but as long as they pound the table enough, you 220 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 3: won't notice. And the senator's own terms, we have not 221 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 3: achieved the objectives that he says. We have to obliterate 222 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:00,959 Speaker 3: the Iranian nuclear program for all time would require the 223 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: collapse of this regime. But if you're going to commit 224 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:07,079 Speaker 3: yourself to a perpetual campaign of mowing the lawn, for example, 225 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 3: anytime Iranians poke their heads up and try to reconstitute 226 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 3: their nuclear program, we hit them, which could be which 227 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 3: could be considered the precedent that was set in Operation 228 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 3: Midnight Hammer, that we hit these we will not allow 229 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 3: rand to have nuclear capabilities. Anytime they try to do so, 230 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 3: we'll hit them again. That will not be achieved if 231 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 3: Araan maintains the capacity to develop long range and short 232 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 3: range ballistic missiles. We're only now, according to Brad Cooper, 233 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 3: beginning to strike their capacity to manufacture these weapons. And 234 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: they can manufacture these weapons and droves much faster than 235 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 3: we can manufacture interceptors. 236 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 4: And what the. 237 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 3: Administration has been laying out over the course of a week, 238 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 3: and not sure if the Senator just simply isn't privy 239 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: to this sort of thing, but they've been saying it 240 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 3: for anyone willing to listen, is that the Iranian regime 241 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 3: was developing a ballistic missile capacity that would prevent us 242 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 3: from accessing the Middle East. 243 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 4: It would be it would create. 244 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 3: Unacceptable costs for military intervention against a future Iranian nuclear program. 245 00:13:04,520 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 3: I agree that there wasn't many indications ahead of this 246 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 3: campaign that the Iranians were reconstituting that program in ways 247 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 3: that mirrored what it looked like before Midnight Hammer, but 248 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 3: that's not to say that they weren't doing anything. And 249 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 3: a crash course missile program could create the conditions in 250 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 3: which the United States has denied access to this region, 251 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 3: which fundamentally seeds if we were to accept that proposition, 252 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 3: which seeds to I RAN a nuclear program and inevitably 253 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:36,479 Speaker 3: nuclear breakout. So yes, that position is a very muscular 254 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 3: way of saying that we should allow RAN to have 255 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon at some point in time based on 256 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 3: its own determination of when it would break out. So yes, 257 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 3: that it would be surrender. It's just couched in ways 258 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 3: that are more palatable to an audience that will accept 259 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 3: that sort of proposition as long as it's framed as 260 00:13:55,920 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 3: America first, America, muscle America alone. It's a very muscular 261 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 3: overture to the audience. But the thing is is that 262 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 3: we have very little indication that the audience is receptive 263 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 3: to it. 264 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,200 Speaker 2: Now, that is a conversation I want to get into. 265 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 2: Do you have a little more time? 266 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 4: Yeah? 267 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: All right, Noah Rothman, National Review dot Com. Keep it here. 268 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: This is Tony Katz today. 269 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: So how much pressure does social media put on our politicians? 270 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: Do they move the needle? Because what I'm seeing from 271 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: what I will call the. 272 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 2: GLC, the Groyper loser class is that it seems to 273 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 2: be a lot. But why is anybody listening to social media? 274 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 2: Social media, real. 275 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 1: Life Tony Kats Tony Kats Today. 276 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 2: Noah Rothman continues with me from National Review dot com. 277 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 2: Be sure to check out his latest book, Blood and Progress, 278 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 2: essentially of left wing violence, available at Amazon dot com 279 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 2: wherever fine books are sold starting in May of twenty 280 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: twenty six. 281 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: The Quinnipiac poll you had pointed out to. 282 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 2: Me earlier, I'd like for you to take a moment 283 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 2: and go through just a little bit of what it is. 284 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: Those findings are about this difference between where maybe Maga 285 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: is and where well, some of these other people are. 286 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 4: Yeah. 287 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,240 Speaker 3: So we have a lot of polling on this on 288 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 3: this war so far, and each of those polls find 289 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 3: this conflict to be unpopular. We should we should be 290 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 3: honest about that at the outset, and I'm sympathetic to why, uh, 291 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 3: the president and this administration did not enlist the American 292 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 3: people in what is a national project. 293 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 4: It did not. 294 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 3: Solicit their support, and it did not prep them for 295 00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 3: the for the sacrifices that they would have to make 296 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 3: in order to ensure an outcome that the American people, 297 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 3: according to polling again, have welcomed for the better part 298 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 3: of two generations, which is the collapse of this regime. 299 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 3: The American public, in polling poll after poll recognized as 300 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 3: Iran is a threat to the United States and as 301 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 3: long as the war is short. According to CBS News 302 00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 3: polling within weeks, for example, it's a seventy percent proposition popularity. 303 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 3: What the American people don't know is how long this 304 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 3: is going to go, and what the objectives are and 305 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 3: how much is going to be asked of them. And 306 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 3: the President didn't trust the American people to put that 307 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: to them. So I sympathize with those who think that 308 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 3: this has not been a very clearly outlined conflict and 309 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 3: they don't know what's expected of us, and I don't 310 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 3: know where this is going to end, and that trepidation, 311 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 3: that uncertainty is leading to trepidation. I mean, even Joe Biden, 312 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 3: at the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine spoke 313 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 3: to the American publican and said, listen, gas prices are 314 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 3: going to go up, and the President should have said that. However, 315 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 3: there is an indication, there are many indications from those 316 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 3: who court the internet as though it's a constituency to 317 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 3: be wooed. That they seem to think that MAGA as 318 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 3: a political entity is up for grabs, that it can 319 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 3: be manipulated and perhaps even co opted. 320 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 4: It can't. 321 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 3: Maga is the President's creation. It does whatever he says 322 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 3: is good for us, for good for him, and they 323 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 3: back it wholeheartedly. They have since the outset of this 324 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,679 Speaker 3: presidency in twenty sixteen twenty seventeen, and they continue to 325 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 3: do so. And you can cite, for example, NBC news 326 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: is polling which has found that eighty nine percent of 327 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 3: Democrats are opposed to these strikes, but seventy seven percent 328 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 3: of Republicans support them, whereas including ninety percent of self 329 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,880 Speaker 3: described MAGA Republicans. This is, you know, they're on the outlier. 330 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 3: They're not with the majority of the public fifty four 331 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 3: percent of that of whom in that poll do not 332 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 3: favor this conflict. But the MAGA right and the GOP 333 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 3: broadly does, and they do because the president is behind it, 334 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 3: and they say that they should be behind it. 335 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 4: It's as simple as that. 336 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 3: And Republicans and influencer types who seem to think that 337 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 3: there is a different MAGA out there that they can 338 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 3: channel they're may be talking to ten percent at most 339 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 3: of this population of pro Trump voters who are trepidacious 340 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,199 Speaker 3: about this conflict and are willing to tell pollsters that 341 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,639 Speaker 3: they don't support the President's you're going to be part of. 342 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 3: Maybe they're just not getting polsters the satisfaction of telling 343 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 3: them that they don't support the president having voted for 344 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 3: him in twenty twenty four. That's a real possibility. But 345 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 3: how many does that constitute as a percentage? A couple 346 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 3: of percent, five, Maybe it's generally not a phenomenon that 347 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 3: accounts for a really significant portion of public opinion. 348 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 2: So if we're asking ourselves, you know, you make a 349 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 2: very solid point, one that I agree with that social 350 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,400 Speaker 2: media is not real life, and that in real life 351 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 2: you see a very different approach here. But you're the 352 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 2: ever popular. The approach is based on time. That's a 353 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 2: newer phenomenon. I don't think if we were to take 354 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:51,440 Speaker 2: a look at a post Pearl Harbor Americans saying, well, 355 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 2: I'm in favor of taking out the Imperial Japanese, but 356 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,479 Speaker 2: only if it takes three months. It takes more than 357 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 2: three months, I don't know about that. Although I'm sure 358 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 2: there are some people who said those kinds of things. 359 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 2: So the idea of making the case to America is 360 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 2: something that I agree with. 361 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 1: And the President has been very bad at this. 362 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 2: Did a bad job with the economy on this conversation, 363 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 2: a bad job with tariffs and what they could mean 364 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 2: better down the road for trade deals, this, that, and 365 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: the other. 366 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: Did not sell that well. They have not sold it. Well. 367 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: It's the idea that he says it. 368 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,439 Speaker 2: Everybody buys in and that's it, and that's not the 369 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 2: way the world works. But if MAGA is behind him 370 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 2: ninety percent, as you discuss it, which is an overwhelmingly 371 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 2: large number, then how does one describe the people who 372 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 2: are part of the chattering classes in this social media 373 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 2: world that get all these clicks and all this attention. 374 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,080 Speaker 1: Is this the groiper, loser class, the GLC? What is 375 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: this group of people? 376 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 3: This now begins to verge on entertainment analysis, because we're 377 00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 3: talking about audience share, which I can adjudicate and don't 378 00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 3: have real firm grasp on. But that's what's animating this 379 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 3: is and you hear them talk about it all the time. 380 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 3: Is they measure themselves relative to the audience of their competitors. 381 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 3: In the podcast space as though that matters, as though 382 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:17,439 Speaker 3: that is reflective of political dynamics in America or of 383 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,600 Speaker 3: geopolitical outcomes on the world stage. But this is the 384 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 3: present through which they view the world. And again, the 385 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 3: opacity of these statistics makes them difficult to analyze. But 386 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: when you talk about the quote unquote Groiper class, plenty 387 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 3: of information out there and you can go find it 388 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 3: yourself about the extent to which these numbers are inflated 389 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 3: by foreign entities, particular foreign assets. 390 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,640 Speaker 4: That are attracted to this kind of content, and. 391 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 3: Also that are deliberately inflating the numbers, for example Nick 392 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:54,520 Speaker 3: Fointes and his podcast in order to destabilize the American landscape, 393 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:59,640 Speaker 3: discourse landscape, and promote the notion that anti regime, anti 394 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 3: administration sentiment and anti Semitism in particular are on the 395 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 3: rise and in fact really relevant political forces in the 396 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 3: United States. And I just don't find a ton of 397 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 3: evidence for that on the ground. It's mostly anecdotal. It 398 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 3: is supported, however, by pulling like what we've recently discussed. 399 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,359 Speaker 3: So the burden of evidence is really on the podcast 400 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 3: types who contend that they're speaking for a silent majority 401 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 3: of the public. We just don't see that in the numbers, 402 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 3: and I'm going to need more data from them to 403 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 3: support that contention if they're interested in mustering it, which 404 00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 3: they're not. 405 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: We don't deny that they have numbers. 406 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 2: You're making the argument of do the numbers translate into 407 00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 2: anything of legitimacy in the political square? But politics downstream 408 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 2: of culture. If you have members of Congress who are 409 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 2: watching these social media nutters, and by the way, I'm 410 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 2: very disparaging. They're more than welcome to have their careers, 411 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 2: and I'm more than welcome to notice the serious issues, 412 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 2: and they could do the same about me. And the 413 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 2: world keeps turning, will keep spinning. But if the Josh 414 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 2: hawleyes or if the name the other member of Congress 415 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 2: is looking to these people Tucker, Meghan, et cetera and 416 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: saying they're the ones with the big audiences, I got 417 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 2: to go make them happy. The Steve Bennen set Steve 418 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 2: Bennan is now a speaker at Seapack, the Conservative Political 419 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 2: Action Conference, Well then that does indeed politics downstream of cultures. 420 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 2: The late Andrew Breitbart would explain that does create an issue, 421 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 2: and I argue that that needs to be pushed back 422 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,200 Speaker 2: upon with massive levels of force. 423 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, and typically it'll be voters who do the pushback. 424 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 3: Democrats already went through this, and it would be extremely 425 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 3: foolish for Republicans to follow their example. But think back 426 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 3: to twenty nineteen and the Democratic primary race in twenty 427 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 3: nineteen ahead of the twenty twenty primaries, and it was 428 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 3: a contest between everybody, including Joe Biden to a lesser extent, 429 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:01,040 Speaker 3: although much lesser extent, was a compet to be the 430 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,640 Speaker 3: most woke, the most progressive, the most outlandish in support 431 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,679 Speaker 3: for policies that the American public would never support. And 432 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 3: they did so knowingly because they were courting the Internet 433 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,679 Speaker 3: as a constituency. The Internet was four square behind the 434 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:18,640 Speaker 3: Green New Deal, free college for everyone, universal basic incomes 435 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 3: for everyone, DEI as the load star of the United States, 436 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,119 Speaker 3: sluffing off meritocracy as a vestage, a vestige rather of 437 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 3: the Enlightenment, so on and so forth. Every illegal immigrant 438 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 3: should get driver's licenses and visas, and the border should 439 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:32,880 Speaker 3: be open. 440 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,040 Speaker 4: It was just a festival of. 441 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 3: Self incrimination in ways that a lot of those elements 442 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 3: did not recover from. Defund The police is now something 443 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 3: that you hang around Democratic candidates like a millstone, whereas 444 00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 3: it was something that everyone endorsed in twenty nineteen, again 445 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,880 Speaker 3: with the limited exception of Joe Biden, who can't by 446 00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 3: the way, who came from behind in South Carolina to 447 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 3: emerge victorious in that primary contests. So the far left, 448 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 3: which is represented far left and usually monochromatically white, we 449 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 3: should be clear about, was attracted to that sort of thing, 450 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 3: whereas the majority of the Democratic Party, it's Hispanic voters, 451 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,719 Speaker 3: it's African American voters, and its older voters, were not 452 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 3: as attracted to these ideas, and they demonstrated that they 453 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,679 Speaker 3: had very little purchase among even Democratic constituencies over the 454 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 3: course of that season. That those lessons are being lost 455 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,720 Speaker 3: on Democrats, but apparently they're being lost on the Republicans too, 456 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 3: because if they were to if these Republicans who perceive 457 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 3: of themselves as having a future in twenty twenty eight 458 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 3: or beyond, think that the most radical, the most radical 459 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 3: position is the ascendant position. It may not be now, 460 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 3: but in the future it will be the position in 461 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,400 Speaker 3: which the political careers will rise and fall on the right. 462 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 3: They're going to place their bets now and those could 463 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 3: be really bad bets. And I think Josh Holly is 464 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 3: placing a really risky gamble on the notion that this 465 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,600 Speaker 3: war is ultimately a fail and if it proceeds a 466 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,479 Speaker 3: pace that he can come back and say I called 467 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 3: it here. I said that we should be over with 468 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 3: it here, and the fact that we were not means 469 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 3: they don't listen to me, So you should trust my judgment. 470 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 3: It's a big it's a big gamble, and I'm not 471 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 3: sure it's going to be a winning one. 472 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 2: And so everyone understands what you just said that Senator 473 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: Josh Hawley is calling this a failure. 474 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: That's what I think he said on Fox, calling failure. 475 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 3: He's setting the stage to call it a failure, correct, 476 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 3: so he can say I said this was a victory here, 477 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 3: and we could have had a victory and we've sacrificed him. 478 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: So I just taken a step further. 479 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 2: I think in how his couch get what should get 480 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 2: out now, I think he is engaging the idea of failure. 481 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 2: He's saying that this is the most we can do, 482 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 2: the best we can do. Let's get out before it's 483 00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 2: too late, as opposed to why would we ever think 484 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 2: it's too late. Why don't we just do the job? 485 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 2: It is saying that we aren't capable. That's my take 486 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 2: of it. And that's where I think the larger scale 487 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 2: problem is. I'll get called a warmonger. Doesn't matter matter 488 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 2: what I'm called. What matters is is that I want 489 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 2: to finish the job and then go home so I 490 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 2: don't have to come back to this eighteen months from 491 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,640 Speaker 2: now or three years from now, or four years from 492 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 2: now or four days from now. And I think that 493 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,720 Speaker 2: we have a serious issue that if we have Republicans 494 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 2: who are taking their cues from social media, we can't 495 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 2: actually engage any level of victory because I again I 496 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 2: sat afraid of winning. I don't think that's what they want. 497 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 2: I say that they would rather take this loss by 498 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 2: a thousand cuts, this death by a thousand cuts, then 499 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 2: deliver one punch to stop those people from cutting us. 500 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 2: And I think it's a real philosophical breakdown in these 501 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 2: people that somehow this concept of forever wars means just 502 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:48,679 Speaker 2: take punches. 503 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 1: We're big enough, we can handle it. 504 00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 4: It's possible. 505 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 3: On the upside, however, I'm reasonably sure that Senator Hawley 506 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 3: at least will abandon this position if the campaign looks 507 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 3: like a success moving forward, you know, there's no hope 508 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 3: for Rand Paul. He's a true believer. But I don't 509 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 3: think Josh Holly really genuinely believes what he's saying. He's 510 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 3: trying to seek political advantage, and he'll amend his position 511 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,719 Speaker 3: in order to find political advantage in the conditions that 512 00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 3: he doesn't anticipate. If there's some sort of a much 513 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 3: more robust victory, a much more an ambiguous victory in 514 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 3: the near future, Josh. 515 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 4: Holly will take credit for that too. 516 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,160 Speaker 3: And nobody will remember the comments that were made here, unfortunately, 517 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 3: because there should be accountability for them. But he could 518 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 3: end up being pressure in You know, we should say 519 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 3: that the pressure on the oil market is real. I 520 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 3: don't think it's kinetic. I don't think it's military. I 521 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,440 Speaker 3: think it's mostly market dynamics. But it's real and it's 522 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 3: having a profound impact on the thinking of the political 523 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 3: class in Washington, if not the war planners and those 524 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,920 Speaker 3: in the National Security Council. And you never know how 525 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 3: that could unfold. There could be a lot of week 526 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 3: spines in Washington after a week, so Josh Holly may 527 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 3: be a leading indicator and not a lagging one. 528 00:27:59,119 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 5: No. 529 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 1: Roman at National Review dot com. 530 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 2: The new book Blood and Progress, A Century of Left 531 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 2: Wing Violence available at Amazon dot com in May. You 532 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 2: should get your pre orders in right now. No, I 533 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 2: appreciate you taking the time to be with us. More 534 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 2: is coming up. I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz Today.