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Speaker 1: The GDP comes in for the fourth quarter at one

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Speaker 1: point four percent, and I said, my gosh, that's not

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Speaker 1: big at all. Tony Katz. Tony Katz today, good to

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Speaker 1: be with you. One point four percent is anemic. What

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Speaker 1: in the world is happening.

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Speaker 2: What happened to the five percent GDPs?

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Speaker 1: What happened to the massive growth we saw good numbers

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Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: This number doesn't seem to make any sense at all.

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Speaker 1: Doctor mattwill joins this economist at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 2: I want to get to the GDP numbers.

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Speaker 1: But of course, the big story today the Supreme Court six'

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Speaker 1: three decision saying that, no THE, ieepa which is the

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Speaker 1: ability to utilize the emergency, powers is not a reason

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Speaker 1: or is not something that can be utilized to put forth.

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Speaker 1: Tariffs The International Emergency Economic Powers act does not authorized

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Speaker 1: the presidents to offer up tariffs of basically unlimited size and.

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Speaker 2: Scope a six to three.

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Speaker 1: Decision the descends From Samuel, Alito Clarence, thomas And Brett,

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Speaker 1: kavanaugh who wrote the descents a rather interesting descense at

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Speaker 1: that as an, economist you look at this, right this

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Speaker 1: is the law not necessarily. Economics what does this decision

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Speaker 1: say to, You, well it says a.

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Speaker 3: Lot this is this is going to be a landmark.

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Speaker 3: Decision it's going to go down in. History it's going

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Speaker 3: to be taught in law schools for a long. Time

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Speaker 3: And i'll focus on just the economic. Aspects they say

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Speaker 3: it right out of the, gate they say tariffs are.

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Speaker 3: TAXES i know this will be a shock to everyone

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Speaker 3: in the, world but you AND i have been saying this.

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Speaker 3: Forever they say, It they just, okay terarifts are. Taxes

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Speaker 3: then it goes on to Say article one Gives congress

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Speaker 3: the power to levy. Taxes. Surprise so right out of the,

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Speaker 3: gate this thing is very. Clear and then it gets

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Speaker 3: into some very important issues such as you, know this

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Speaker 3: is not a teriff, statute again emphasizing the point that

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Speaker 3: you AND i keep saying that terroriffs are taxes and

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Speaker 3: the president doesn't have the power to impose. Taxes and

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Speaker 3: one THING i really love about. It it says tariffs

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Speaker 3: are a tax on THE us, citizen, again something that's

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Speaker 3: obvious to all of. Us and they say the president

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Speaker 3: doesn't have the authority to impose taxes on us without congressional,

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Speaker 3: approval that it's Only. Congress but what it does say

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Speaker 3: is that the IE pa it allows, regulation and the

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Speaker 3: president can regulate, things so he can block Import it's

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Speaker 3: clear on this he can, Say i'm, Sorry, taiwan you

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Speaker 3: cannot send something to THE. Us i'm, Sorry, japan you

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Speaker 3: cannot export this to THE. Us he can block, imports

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Speaker 3: but he can't TAX US us citizens on those. Goods

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Speaker 3: and that's the economic, angle AND i think they made

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Speaker 3: the right. Decision SO i.

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Speaker 1: Will counter only by saying THAT i think the tariffs are.

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Speaker 1: TAXES i state that tariffs are. Taxes but with THE,

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Speaker 1: ieepa the converse, is how is it, Possible and this

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Speaker 1: is The kavanaugh, descent how is it possible THAT i.

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Speaker 2: Can REGULATE i could literally stop.

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Speaker 1: Goods from coming into a, country BUT i can't tariff.

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Speaker 1: THEM i would consider a tariff in that, case, regulating

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Speaker 1: AND i would still be able to hold that a

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Speaker 1: tariff is a. Tax now this doesn't, mean of, course

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Speaker 1: that the president can't engage tariffs through other.

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Speaker 2: MEANS i believe that he, will or at least he will.

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Speaker 1: Try but there's an argument to be made of, maybe,

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Speaker 1: HEY i gave it the. Shot they said, no and

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Speaker 1: there's something better that comes from, this the, tariffs let's

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Speaker 1: say fall, away maybe. Money the, money of COURSE i

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Speaker 1: shouldn't say maybe it is going to have to get

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Speaker 1: paid back some one hundred and seventy billion dollars whatever it.

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Speaker 1: IS i don't know how that part actually. Works what

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Speaker 1: is going to be the market's response to these tariffs

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Speaker 1: being now basically?

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Speaker 3: Nullified, well, okay long, term the market's going to like.

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Speaker 3: This this is good because we don't like this. Axes

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Speaker 3: nobody wants more, taxes well except for the. Left but

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Speaker 3: in the short, term it's going to be a. Negative

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Speaker 3: even Though i'm against, tariffs it's a negative because we

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Speaker 3: just took a tool of bargaining chip away from the.

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Speaker 3: President so he's going to have to use another bargaining,

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Speaker 3: tool another chip to put on the. Table and are

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Speaker 3: all these deals that he did are they now null and?

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Speaker 3: Void he just signed one yesterday With? Indonesia is that

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Speaker 3: null and? Void because those things do include? Tariffs do

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Speaker 3: they have to be approved by The? Senate because again

84
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Speaker 3: their trade agreements now and those things the president can't do.

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Speaker 3: Unilaterally he has to get the approval of The. Senate

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Speaker 3: SO i think long. Term Wall street's going to be

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Speaker 3: happy with. Us but right now there's some, chaos and you,

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Speaker 3: KNOW i guess that's the definition of The trump presidency

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Speaker 3: is throw some chaos out there and see what.

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Speaker 1: Happened talking to, you Doctor Matt, will economist at The

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Speaker 1: university Of.

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Speaker 2: Indianapolis now let's move it over.

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Speaker 1: To THIS gdp one point four, percent and you, ALSO

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Speaker 1: i have a conversation of inflation firming.

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Speaker 2: Up they're saying a three.

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Speaker 1: Percent The fed is, very very concerned about cutting.

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Speaker 2: Rates they absolutely don't want to do.

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Speaker 1: This this is Going i'm going to be yet another

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Speaker 1: fight that's going to take place Before Jerome powell is.

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Speaker 1: Replaced but let's talk about this one point four PERCENT.

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Speaker 1: Gdp in the fourth, quarter it was a two and

102
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Speaker 1: a half percent. Estimate that's a miss by basically a full.

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Speaker 1: Percent what the heck happened?

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Speaker 3: Here, okay there's a lot of parts to, this AND

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Speaker 3: i want us to cover all of them because it's.

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Speaker 3: Important but let me say the. Headline it's not as

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Speaker 3: bad as the president. Thinks The president went right out

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Speaker 3: of the gating and he attacked The democrats for the.

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Speaker 3: Shutdown he attacked Jer Own poal for not cutting. Rates

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Speaker 3: and you know, WHAT i understand him on both of those,

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Speaker 3: points but it's not as bad as he. Thinks and

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Speaker 3: you got to look under the. Hood you AND i

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Speaker 3: always do, this and let's look under the. Hood first of,

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Speaker 3: all there is a one percent reduction IN gdp because

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Speaker 3: of the government, Shutdown so right out of the, gate

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Speaker 3: there's a one percent off number that we need to

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Speaker 3: take into. Account but there's some really good stuff in this. Report,

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Speaker 3: okay first good. Thing consumer spending is up two and

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Speaker 3: a half, percent two point Four that is an excellent.

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Speaker 3: Number probably my favorite number in this well maybe it's

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Speaker 3: my second. Favorite is domestic. Investment people putting shovel in the,

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Speaker 3: ground putting up, buildings building their businesses up three point eight.

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Speaker 3: Percent that's a very good. Number but there's two. Drags

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Speaker 3: there's two things that are pulling it, down AND i

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Speaker 3: think they're good. Things one is the government shrink by

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Speaker 3: five point one. Percent remember we talked About BIDEN'S gdp

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Speaker 3: was up because he was growing. Government THIS gdp is

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Speaker 3: down because government shrank five point one. Percent this is a.

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Speaker 3: Flaw it's a flaw with this Ridiculous knesy AND gdp

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Speaker 3: formula in that the growth of government contributes to THE gdp.

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Speaker 3: Number so IF i Were trump might, say, hey, yeah

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Speaker 3: one point, four but come, on we shrun. Government that's

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Speaker 3: a good. Thing private industry is, growing consumer spending is. Up,

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Speaker 3: okay government's. Down that's perfectly. Fine but there's also an

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Speaker 3: import export angle on this that relates back to The

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Speaker 3: Supreme court. DECISION i thought they could be breath first

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Speaker 3: BECAUSE i actually were a lot at you just, Then.

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Speaker 1: Yeah the idea that the shutdown is CAUSING gdp to go?

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Speaker 2: Down what's? Shutdown are referring to that The.

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Speaker 1: Homeland security shutdown that's been going on for just about a.

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Speaker 1: Week are we talking about the shutdown From October? November that's,

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Speaker 1: well we'll talking fourth, quarter so of course you're talking

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Speaker 1: about the shutdown From october And.

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Speaker 2: NOVEMBER i thought these were.

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Speaker 1: Good things because it reduces government. Payrolls now you're telling

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Speaker 1: me that that also leads to a SMALLER.

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Speaker 3: Gdp, yes because remember we're not traveling as. Much you,

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Speaker 3: know The Homeland security had. Issues flights were, canceled a rail,

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Speaker 3: issue who's. Occurred people at the docks couldn't get goods,

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Speaker 3: off you, know boats In Long beach and in they

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Speaker 3: Own New. Jersey so, no there's a lot of these

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Speaker 3: things that government does that you AND i, like you,

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Speaker 3: know national. Defense, okay those things are. Good they contribute

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Speaker 3: to the activity of the, country even if it's not

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Speaker 3: government spending that's causing. It so the government infrastructure that

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Speaker 3: shut down cause all of the, economy private economy to pull.

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Speaker 3: Back and that's where we get the one percent. From

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Speaker 3: and that's kind of the consensus estimate from economists across the.

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Speaker 1: Board President trump putting out on a truth Social The

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Speaker 1: democrats shutdown costs THE usa at least two points IN.

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Speaker 1: Gdp that's why they're doing it in many form again

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Speaker 1: talking about this latest.

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Speaker 2: Shutdown no shutdowns also lower interest. Rates too. Late powell

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Speaker 2: is the. Worst yet he hasn't fired.

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Speaker 1: Too Late, powell AS i, said THE fed seems very

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Speaker 1: very concerned about. Inflation they're saying three percent and There's

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Speaker 1: i'm saying they're they're hinting that there won't be another rate.

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Speaker 2: Cut you cutting? Rates?

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Speaker 3: Good, well, okay, again let's let's let's put aside the

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Speaker 3: wash combo decision of rate cuts and balance. Sheet but

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Speaker 3: this report indicates. Inflation they have their own numbers called

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Speaker 3: the gd price. Deflator it's an indication of inflation that's

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Speaker 3: built into THE gdp. Report it was three point seven.

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Speaker 3: Percent that's not an annualized. Number it was actually by their,

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Speaker 3: definition not the matt. Willmath by their definition in this,

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Speaker 3: report three point seven percent inflation for the third court

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Speaker 3: or for the fourth. Quarter that is. Real and that

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Speaker 3: also was a drag ON gdp because you, know we

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Speaker 3: call it NOMINAL gdp versus REAL. Gdp it's adjusted for,

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Speaker 3: inflation and the inflation was three point seven. Percent it

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Speaker 3: is not. Gone and to cut rates right now without

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Speaker 3: a setting of the balance sheet would even contribute more to.

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Speaker 3: Inflation so the president's wrong to be pulling the finger

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Speaker 3: at your own paler on this that that's NOT i

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Speaker 3: don't agree.

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Speaker 1: With, him but you do agree that the shutdown Of

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Speaker 1: October november led to a LOWER gdp.

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Speaker 3: Overall, yes it led to a LOWER, gdp AND i

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Speaker 3: believe the one percent. Estimate you, know the president likes

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Speaker 3: to use. Hyperbole but, again the shutdown also reduced the

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Speaker 3: size of, government which also REDUCED. Gdp but there's a

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Speaker 3: very interesting part of this report import, export because again

193
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 3: this is a flaw with THE gdp it doesn't consider

194
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Speaker 3: foreign direct. Investment so we had fewer exports last quarter

195
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Speaker 3: and more. Imports that's a drag ON gdp because it's

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Speaker 3: a flaw in THE gdp. FORMULA i want a lot of.

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Speaker 3: IMPORTS i want to buy cheap stuff From germany and

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Speaker 3: From switzerland and from THE. Uk but that's a drag

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00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,200
Speaker 3: ON gdp and his. Tariffs we've said it a million

200
00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 3: times And I'm i'm not going to stop saying. It

201
00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:02,280
Speaker 3: his tariffs actually harm manufacturing and exports and. IMPORTS i

202
00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,439
Speaker 3: give you The whirlpool, EXAMPLE i give you The intel.

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00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 3: Example whenever you put protectionist tariffs in, place it only

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00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,840
Speaker 3: protects your industry short. Term long, term it hurts your.

205
00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,439
Speaker 3: Industry and that's what we see in THIS. Gdp The

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00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,680
Speaker 3: april tariffs hurt the fourth QUARTER.

207
00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:21,400
Speaker 1: Gdp, hey you, know sometimes the gift comes in all

208
00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,240
Speaker 1: sorts of. Ways if the tariffs are, gone your argument

209
00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,080
Speaker 1: would be. High my, argument we're going to see some

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Speaker 1: very good growth that could take, place but really quick

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Speaker 1: on this trade. Deficit because The Wall Street journal had

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Speaker 1: the Story america imported a record amount last year despite

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Speaker 1: seismic trade policy. Changes you saw seventy point three billion

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Speaker 1: DOLLARS us trade deficit goods and services. Monthly and what

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Speaker 1: you're saying is that even with the tariffs and this

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Speaker 1: claim that we were going to close trade, gaps that's

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Speaker 1: not the way it. Works the trade gap is as

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Speaker 1: big as.

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Speaker 3: Ever, yes this is not news liberal, economists conservative, Economists

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Speaker 3: it doesn't. Matter trade tariffs do not reduce your trade.

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Speaker 3: Deficit The president has this false impression in his mind

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Speaker 3: and he can't get rid of. It and The Wall

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Speaker 3: street journal is reporting exactly the. DATA i just explained

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Speaker 3: the tariffs had a short term bump in trade deficits

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Speaker 3: long term harm to. Him but, Again i'm a fan

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Speaker 3: of trade. DEFICITS i don't like the word. DEFICITS i

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Speaker 3: don't want to include some other things in the.

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Speaker 1: Explanation so if you're advising the, president, hey The Supreme

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Speaker 1: court ruled against you just on the IE E pa,

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Speaker 1: right not tariffs AND. Toto we should be clear about.

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Speaker 2: That six y three.

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Speaker 1: Decisions The Supreme court rules against utilizing taras via This

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Speaker 1: Emergency Powers.

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Speaker 2: Act what are you advising?

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Speaker 1: Him you're his, economist just sitting there in the, oval

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Speaker 1: and he's, Like, matt what do you THINK i should?

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Speaker 3: Do. Ooster, president this is a great opportunity for. You

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Speaker 3: what you need to do is use some other tools

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Speaker 3: other than the tariff tool block import of. GOODS i

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Speaker 3: think that is a bigger hammer to use against a

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Speaker 3: country in a trade negotiation than a tariff or attacks

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Speaker 3: on THE us. Citizen use other tools to bring them

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Speaker 3: to their. KNEES i think he's capable of doing. THAT

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Speaker 3: i have incredible trust in this present in his negotiating.

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Speaker 3: Skills just use a different technique rather than, tariffs AND

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Speaker 3: i think you can accomplish the same, results if not, Better.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Matt, well economists at The university Of. INDIANAPOLIS i

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Speaker 1: appreciate you being with. Us more to get To I'm

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Speaker 1: Tony katz