1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,360 Speaker 1: Some very strange things are happening in China. Those the 2 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: words of President Trump saying on True's Social quote, they 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: are becoming very hostile and sending letters to countries throughout 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: the world that they want to impose export controls on 5 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 1: each and every element of production having to do with 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: rare earths and virtually anything else they can think of, 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: even if it's not manufactured in China. And with them, 8 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: We're supposed to meet in South Korea in two weeks, 9 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: but I don't think there's a reason to do so now. 10 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: And the market then dropped five hundred points in the 11 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: gold price shot up because well, this is instability, but 12 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:43,519 Speaker 1: there is a foreign policy conversation to be had in 13 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 1: this instability. Tony Kats, Tony Kats today, good to be 14 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:48,640 Speaker 1: with you. Chuck de Board joins me right now. He 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: is the Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public 16 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: Policy Foundation Texas policy dot Com, served in the California 17 00:00:56,280 --> 00:01:00,639 Speaker 1: Assembly and served in the Reagan era Pentagon. People are 18 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: going to look at this as an economic conversation. I'm 19 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: telling you this is in no way simply an economics conversation. 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 1: This is all breaking today. You hear this information shocked. 21 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: What does it say to you, Well. 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: There's a couple of things going on. I mean, first 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: of all, it's very important to understand that the People's 24 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party is pursuing 25 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 2: a mercantilist, predatory capitalist model. So at the very least 26 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 2: from an economic standpoint, what China has methodically done is 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 2: it has seized certain key portions of the supply chain, 28 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,199 Speaker 2: without which not only the United States but the entire 29 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: world can't operate. And the way it does that with 30 00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: rare earth is to make sure that it controls all 31 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: of the rare earth refining. Rare earths aren't really as 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 2: rare as the name would imply. They're all over the place. 33 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: The challenge is it's difficult to dig them out of 34 00:01:54,960 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: the ground with economically viable concentrations and then refine it. 35 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: It's actually the refining, which is very dirty, energy intensive, difficult. 36 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: We don't do much of that in America because China 37 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 2: has undercut our prices so that they can control the 38 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: entire supply chain. These things are important for magnets, they're 39 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 2: important for sensors used for high tech military defense articles. 40 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: You really can't have either a modern economy or a 41 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 2: modern military without rare earth, and China controls the. 42 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: Rare earth now the control aspect, though the adding the 43 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: controls to that is not specifically to an economic advantage. 44 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: We have been hearing that this is to a geopolitical advantage. 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: Trying to increase things now so when they do meet, Hey, 46 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 1: we can make a trade deal with this. China saying 47 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 1: we can make a trade deal with that, but maybe 48 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: you could do us a favor and stop paying attention 49 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: to Taiwan so much in their defense. Is a lot 50 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: of this maneuver to try, as the Wall Street Journal 51 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: had written the story, to get the United States to 52 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: back off defending Taiwan, so China can have its reunification 53 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: policy without question. 54 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 2: Yeah they I think China sees an opening right now. 55 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: They see an opening for a number of reasons. First 56 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 2: of all, they have engaged in an unprecedented military build up, 57 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: unprecedented in modern history, mostly because if Hitler had a 58 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 2: bigger economy under Germany, perhaps their build up in the 59 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 2: nineteen thirties would be the largest. But because China's economy 60 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 2: is so giant, their military build up has actually eclipsed 61 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 2: what Hitler was able to do in the late nineteen thirties. 62 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: It's truly unprecedented. And what's important for America, a huge 63 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: amount of that build up has been with the Navy, 64 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: not army or air force strength, but the Navy. And 65 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 2: that's a direct threat to US interests in the Indo 66 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 2: Pacific and really globally. So that's number one. They have 67 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 2: this huge build up. Number two is that America because 68 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: of the weakness under both Obama and Biden and the 69 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 2: fact that it takes a while to turn this defense 70 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 2: ship around or the Department of Wars it's now properly 71 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 2: been renamed. There is some people around Trump who think 72 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,719 Speaker 2: that we don't have enough military force to be able 73 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 2: to defend Taiwan. And on top of that, the Taiwanese 74 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 2: themselves have been pretty lackadaisical about their defense. They don't 75 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 2: really put a lot of their GDP into defense. And 76 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 2: some of it is because they're only ninety miles away 77 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 2: from China at the narrowest park point, and they have 78 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 2: a divided government. The Gomuendang, the old Nationalist party, controls 79 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 2: the legislature in Taiwan, and they are very reluctant right 80 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 2: now to increase defense spending because the Gomundang is corrupt 81 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: and they look to Beijing to cut deals with and 82 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 2: to try to get rich off of. And so Taiwan 83 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: itself is divided. And so you have this this feeling 84 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 2: that perhaps America's commitment to Taiwan is not as strong 85 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: as it could be. So you have a growing, strengthening 86 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 2: China and supposedly at least perceptionalize a weakening commitment to Taiwan. 87 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: So Shishiping thinks, well, you know, maybe maybe I can 88 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: pry Trump away from any commitment to Taiwan and we 89 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: can perhaps in air quotes, peacefully reunify with Taiwan because 90 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 2: America won't do anything about it. 91 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 1: Talking to Chuck to Vore of the Texas Public Policy 92 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: Foundation find his work at Texas policy dot com. I 93 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 1: do look at the geopolitical here, and I do think 94 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: that that it matters this canceling of this this trip 95 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: with China. Is it possible that, you know, with Trump, 96 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:55,839 Speaker 1: he looks at everything as hey, if it's not going 97 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: to be on my terms, if it's not going to 98 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: be to my veteran condition, I'm not interested in it. 99 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: How does China respond to this type of cancelation. 100 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: Well, certainly they're going to see if they can engage 101 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: in some sort of negotiation, right, They're going to you know, 102 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 2: certainly the drop in the stock market today is going 103 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 2: to get Trump's attention, is going to get the attention 104 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,040 Speaker 2: of people around Trump who are in the business community. 105 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 2: People are going to say, gee, you know this is 106 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 2: we don't refine these rare earths yet. Can you make 107 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,559 Speaker 2: a deal? Can can some sort of an arrangement be had. 108 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 2: The other thing, of course, is that Trump has been 109 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 2: trying to crack down on the Russian ghost fleet and 110 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 2: has been enacting secondary sanctions on people who have been 111 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: illegally buying Russian energy, mostly of course India. And then 112 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 2: you know, another target being China, because those are the 113 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:55,359 Speaker 2: two countries that are buying the most Russian oil. And 114 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 2: so this is a way of fighting back. This is 115 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,839 Speaker 2: a way of China fighting fire with fire and showing 116 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 2: up that America isn't the only country that holds significant 117 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: economic cards, and so they're trying to increase pain to 118 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 2: get what they want. And I think what they want 119 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 2: isn't merely you know, maybe it is simply more favorable 120 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 2: economic terms. But there's something about this round that makes 121 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 2: me think that this may be as you speculate more 122 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 2: about Taiwan than merely trying to even the the you know, 123 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: to shift the the terrain more in China's favor on 124 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 2: trade terms. So look, you know, the fact of the 125 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 2: matter is that October is one of the best two 126 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: months for invading Taiwan. It's that in April the weather 127 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: in the Taiwan Strait is usually pretty bad. Uh, And 128 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 2: so October is a is a good or better month 129 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 2: than normal for military operations in the strait. And so 130 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 2: you've got another couple two or three weeks before that 131 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 2: window starts to close. 132 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: Talking to to Bar the Texas Public Policy Foundation before 133 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: I let you go really quickly here, I never got 134 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: your thoughts on Pete hag Set, the Secretary of War, 135 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: and that conversation he had with the assembled generals and 136 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: admirals regarding standards a fitness. He has removed another member 137 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 1: of the Navy's leadership because of a guy coming in 138 00:08:29,120 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: name of Hong Kow who ran for Senate in Virginia. 139 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: But on these moves and really on the idea of 140 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: these standards, did you think that the Secretary was on 141 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,439 Speaker 1: point or did you think that this meeting was much 142 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 1: ado about nothing. 143 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 2: I think it was completely on point. Look, you know, 144 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 2: the enforcement of standards happens at the top, and the 145 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 2: erosion of standards can happen very gradually over time. I 146 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 2: was a company commander back you know, in the early 147 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: nineteen nineties for three years. Back then, if you didn't 148 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 2: meet the heightened weight standards, you couldn't get promoted, you 149 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: couldn't go to any sort of special schools. Your career 150 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: was basically put on hold until you took care of 151 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 2: that heightened weight standard and you can pass the physical 152 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,359 Speaker 2: training test. And you know, we've been seeing these photographs, 153 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 2: for example, a senior naval enlisted personnel who are old 154 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 2: beests if they're getting promoted, and I look at that 155 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 2: and it's like, excuse me, Really, we come to this 156 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 2: point where it looks like you can't even touch your 157 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 2: toes and you're getting promoted. That's unacceptable. And so how 158 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,320 Speaker 2: did that happen? Right, Well, it happened under the watch 159 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 2: of the general officers, the admirals and the generals that 160 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 2: were assembled in that big room to listen to the 161 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: Secretary of War talk to them about standards, and so 162 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 2: that's exactly what's needed. You bring everyone together and you say, look, 163 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 2: we are serious about this, and if you don't want 164 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 2: to do this, you know there's the door. You can 165 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 2: always resign your commission. Don't let the door hit you 166 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 2: on the ass on way out. But for those who 167 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 2: who want to join me in restoring the lethality of 168 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 2: our US military, then let's do it together as a team. 169 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 2: So I was inspired by it. It was a great talk, 170 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 2: and you know, as a as a retired lieutenant colonel, 171 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 2: I was one hundred percent for it. 172 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: It seems that there are a lot of people who 173 00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 1: are freaked out by the idea that our military should 174 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: be about lethality. That seems to it that seems to 175 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: shock some very very softer people's senses that this is 176 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 1: the this is its purpose. We the military has a 177 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 1: purpose more than looking not so good in a uniform. 178 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 2: Well absolutely, And you know, this again is something that's 179 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 2: been creeping into the military for decades. I remember in 180 00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 2: the nineties when Bill Clinton was president and some of 181 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 2: the mandatory training that was beginning to creep into our 182 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 2: training calendar, they had nothing to do with lethality. I 183 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 2: had to do with things like you know, sexual harassment 184 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 2: or you know, proper proper treatment. And it's like, excuse me, 185 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 2: this is like leadership one oh one. If you don't 186 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 2: treat your soldiers, well, you're a bad leader. Right, you 187 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 2: don't need these mandatory training sessions. And then Tony, a 188 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 2: few years later, when I was due to be promoted 189 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 2: to major and I made the major's promotion board, my 190 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 2: promotion was then postponed by a year. Why did that happen, Well, 191 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 2: it happened because some white male members of the Judge 192 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 2: Advocate Corps were not promoted and they found out that 193 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 2: the under Clinton, that they had allowed gender and race 194 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 2: to creep into the selection process rather than merit, and 195 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: they sued and they won the lawsuit. And so what 196 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 2: the military, what the Army had to do was canceled 197 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 2: the entire promotion class to major for judge advocate generals, 198 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 2: for military intelligence which is what my branch was, and 199 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 2: for docs for doctors, and they wait till the next 200 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: year where that they could then include the officers who 201 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 2: were of lower merit that happened to be of the 202 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 2: right sex and the right race. Right, they included those 203 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 2: people who were of lower merit along with the people 204 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 2: who would have been promoted and combine them into one 205 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: big promotion class the next year. So it delayed my 206 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 2: promotion to major by year. This policy that focused on 207 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: our immutable characteristics, how we were born, right, what race 208 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 2: or sex we were born into, rather than our merit, 209 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: which is all lethality cares about, is merit. And so 210 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: that was back around nineteen ninety eight that it happened 211 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 2: under Clinton. Right, so this has been happening for a 212 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,719 Speaker 2: long time, and so the officers that he saith that 213 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 2: Secretary War was addressing were precisely those officers under whom 214 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 2: this regime was enacted over the last few decades. 215 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 1: For Texas Public Policy Foundation, I appreciate taking the time 216 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: to be with us. More's coming up. I'm Tony Katz. 217 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: This is Tony Katz today.