1 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 1: Line from Vaal Hartbeiner and The Crossroads of America. 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 2: It's Tony Katz today. 3 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: So President Trump decided fifteen days to come up with 4 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: some kind of negotiation with Iran about their nuclear capability. 5 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,160 Speaker 1: And I've always taken that as a great But what 6 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: is that supposed to tell us? I mean, I thought 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: we dismantled, abolished, obliterated their nuclear capability, but clearly that's 8 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: not the case. And I can live with the fact 9 00:00:34,400 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 1: that people talked about a thing, but it wasn't one 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: hundred percent accurate. I can also accept the fact that 11 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: the Iranians absolutely want nuclear power, they want to engage 12 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 1: nuclear weaponry, and everything the Obama administration ever said about 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: it was wrong. Ben Rhodes has no idea what he's 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: talking about. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, Good to be here, 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: Good to be with you. But if there is a 16 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: deal to be made, does that mean the iatola stays. 17 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 1: I discussed this with Noah Rothman over at Nash. 18 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: Review, who I love his takes on national on foreign policy. 19 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 1: Even if I disagree with him, and the argument was 20 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: that everything leads to the idea of the ayatola, eventually 21 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:15,800 Speaker 1: leaving leaving or being moved out. And when Iran says 22 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: they're gearing up for war, a war with whom, how 23 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: is this the activation of terrorist cells or is this? Well, 24 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: if you do this the United States, we're gonna drop 25 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 1: everything we have on Israel because we have nothing left 26 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: to offer, and maybe we can get the twelfth Emams 27 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 1: showing up. 28 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: Anyway, Major Mike Lyons joins me. 29 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 1: Right now retired to the United States Army, our military 30 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: analyst West Point graduate does work there still with the 31 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 1: fantastic world of West Point. 32 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: And let's start with the basics. 33 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: Where is the Iranian military right now in their capabilities 34 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: after the bombing of Fordeaux, Isfahans and Atons, these nuclear sites. 35 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 3: Tony, they are very fragmented. They they are having challenges 36 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 3: within their revolutionary Guards. From a generational fault line perspective, 37 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 3: that the younger troops kind of the captains and the 38 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 3: majors and the colonels are now being led by the 39 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 3: generals of that organization. That should there be a revolution, 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 3: as what normally happens is, people will be held accountable, 41 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 3: that entire organization will be you know, head to the gallows, 42 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 3: so to speak. And that younger generation doesn't want to 43 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 3: have any part of that. So there's a generational fault 44 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 3: line that exists there that ran an Intel report. So 45 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:38,839 Speaker 3: that's pretty important because if the military, if their United 46 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: States does attack and the military is forced to respond, 47 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 3: and what will that response be, Well, you might it 48 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 3: might tip over and you might see that revolution to 49 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 3: come from with him. But to answer your specific question, 50 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 3: that the Uranian military is very weak right now. Their 51 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 3: navy is not not very capable. They have probably one 52 00:02:57,040 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 3: shot with ballistic missiles heading towards Israel, heading towards maybe 53 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 3: some United States some hard locations in the their least, 54 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 3: but for for all practical purposes, that would be it. 55 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 3: But that's still not to say that there's still military 56 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: targets that the United States could go after if they 57 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 3: decided to. 58 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: But when the Iranians say we're preparing for war, a 59 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: lot of that is the standard saber rattling that the 60 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 1: Iranians have done for forever. I was Senator Tom Cotton 61 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: who said they don't win any wars, but they're extremely 62 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 1: good at negotiating, And it's the idea of trying to 63 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: get them to settle down and giving them things instead 64 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: of them instead of actually having to fight them. It's 65 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: a very North Korea point of view. Is there still 66 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: a concern though, that even though they may be fragmented, 67 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: they still have mobile missile launchers, they still have certain capabilities, 68 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: and they could still create a lot of problems in 69 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: the region, not just for Israel because they seem to 70 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: want to take it out on everybody, because everybody else 71 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: wants them gone. 72 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 3: Yes, they could likely impossibly mobilize forces like heads Bellah 73 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 3: and Hamas and other terrorist organizations that exist there, even 74 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: though they've been severely degraded. But they could possibly do 75 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 3: that create some problems. But the one shot that they 76 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: could have if they're that close to breakout and they 77 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,600 Speaker 3: could somehow weaponize three or four nuclear weapons, I mean, 78 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 3: that's what the concern has to be right now. The 79 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 3: concern is not iron getting you know, one hundred nuclear 80 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: weapons and moving a program as similar to what we 81 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 3: saw in North Korea. It's just a few of them. 82 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 3: If they had a few nuclear weapons and use them 83 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 3: and even launch them on ballistic missiles without any real 84 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 3: you know, knowing where they're going to go, without the 85 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 3: level of fire direction that has normally required, then that's 86 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 3: a significant threat, and that's what that's what I think 87 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 3: they're racing towards. They're racing towards a breakout of some sort, 88 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 3: which is why the military targets, if we go back again, 89 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 3: have got to be where they make ballistic missiles, where 90 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 3: they test the nuclear weapons, not just the enrichment sites. 91 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 3: It's going to go a step further in places that 92 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 3: we hadn't really hit the first time. 93 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired to the United States 94 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: Army military analyst, staying on this part of the subject, 95 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: one wonders, if you talk about being able to activate, 96 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: it has blow whatever is left of Hamas, which is 97 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: bothersome to hear that there's still something left of Hamas. 98 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: You've got the Houthi rebels in Yemen. But there's also 99 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 1: the concern about the activation of cells and what we 100 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: have allowed on our southern border during the four years 101 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: of the Biden administration. While the border certainly was porous 102 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: for years and presidents going back over the last thirty years, 103 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: the last four years under Joe Biden was horrifying and 104 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: what was allowed into the country is their concern that 105 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: if Iran feels like well, this run for the Ayatola 106 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:53,480 Speaker 1: is over. 107 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 2: Let it all loose, let it all hang out. Is 108 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 2: there the possibility? 109 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: Is there the concern from Trump and the Pentagon that 110 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: that could mean salves in the United States. 111 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, law enforcement that I've spoken to don't believe that 112 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 3: is a threat. That's pure rhetoric coming from the Iranians. 113 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 3: And there's no really way to mobilize them, if they 114 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 3: even do exist. And if there's one thing that we've 115 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 3: done since nine to eleven is tie all these intelligence 116 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 3: agencies together, and now with the use of artificial intelligence, 117 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 3: even more so, every league gets run down. And so 118 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 3: we're on top of any situation like that, so as 119 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 3: the Department PubL Land Security looks to go out and 120 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 3: chase down some of the people that have crossed over. 121 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 3: And there is the unknown unknown, but that's the lone wolf, 122 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 3: and that's always a threat that could exist anywhere. But 123 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 3: to have some kind of coordinated, large scale attack like 124 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 3: a nine to eleven is probably not likely because we're 125 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,599 Speaker 3: no longer asleep at the switch, We're no longer not 126 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 3: as creative as what our enemies could be. And I've 127 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 3: got confidence in the people I've spoken to. A law 128 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 3: enforcement that think that that's just the case. 129 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: Now, let's take a look what President Trump has said. 130 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 1: Because President Trump has said I want to create a 131 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: deal regarding nuclear which leads to the idea that somehow 132 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: the Iyatola. 133 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,559 Speaker 2: Gets to stay. Now, maybe that's not the case. 134 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: Maybe a deal is this is the moment for you 135 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 1: Iotola to catch a plan into China or Russia because 136 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: you can't go to ven as. 137 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 2: Well anymore and be done with you. 138 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: And that's the end of that is this let's start 139 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: Maybe I'll even go back another step. 140 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 2: What is this argument that the president is making. 141 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't see Aron negotiating any nuclear deal with 142 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 3: the United States. This is just a way to buy 143 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 3: time right now. The president, I believe, is just doing 144 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 3: all he can to put it out there that he's 145 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 3: trying to have peace, he's trying to get something done. 146 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 3: I don't think he will do what Obama did, and 147 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 3: that's basically a peaceians by signing a deal with them 148 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 3: that all that did was kick the nuclear capability down 149 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 3: the road. So I don't see this president doing that. 150 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 3: He's pretty much drawn a very hard line in the 151 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: saying and you combine that with Israel's feeling about the 152 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: ballistic missiles that they're all together, and so the Uranians 153 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 3: are not going to agree to that. So that's why 154 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 3: the race is on. The race is on for the 155 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 3: Iranians to try to cobble together some kind of breakout 156 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,559 Speaker 3: something in order to get some level of the terns 157 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 3: that would cause the United States not to attack, let's say. 158 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 3: But I just don't see the President thinking that that's 159 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 3: going to be the case. So the leverage that the 160 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 3: military has put on the Uranians right now is just 161 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 3: not felt by them. And that's what Trump understands. He 162 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 3: understands leverage. But they've not changed their behavior even though 163 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 3: we have two carrier groups and all the intel is 164 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 3: showing all the troops that are moving and the level 165 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 3: of capability that we have right now. 166 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: What deterrents possibly could the Iranians show because outside of oh, 167 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: they've got the nuclear weapon, I don't know what could 168 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: possibly exist. 169 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 3: Yeah. I think if they once they feel they have 170 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: some weapon, they can weaponize something. They have ballistic capability, 171 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 3: right have anuth to get to deliver a nuke, and 172 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 3: unlike other countries that could develop it, they can't, like 173 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 3: North Korea has a challenge because of its rocket program. 174 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 3: It's just not as sophisticated, and they could push it 175 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 3: across to South Korea. But but in this case, the 176 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 3: Uranians have a sophisticated missile and rocket program that could 177 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 3: deliver it within theater. And so the threat is Israel. 178 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 3: So Israel. Could Israel absorb four or five nuclear weapons 179 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 3: even low grade one five to five level? Could they 180 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 3: absorb four or five nuclear weapons coming into downtown Tel 181 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 3: Aviv or in some in high Far or some other 182 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 3: place inside of Israel? I don't think so. And I 183 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 3: think that would just open up a complete regional conflict 184 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 3: that nobody wants to see. 185 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 2: See that. No, don't get me wrong, I don't want 186 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 2: that for anybody. But I'm I'm curious as to what 187 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 2: we think regional conflict is now. And this goes to 188 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 2: what President Trump is trying to do with this Board. 189 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: Of Peace, because this isn't about getting input from neighbors 190 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: about how you think we should rebuild Gazish. 191 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 2: We put the hotel over here, condo's over here, you. 192 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 1: Ot put the water plants over here. No, no, no, 193 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: This is about saying everybody puts in their money. Now 194 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,319 Speaker 1: you all have skin in the game, and that forces 195 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: Iran to rethink terrorism and everyone else in the region 196 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: to rethink terrorism. Nobody wants terrorist activities when they're going 197 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: to lose money. They don't care if the other guy 198 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: loses lives, but they don't want to lose money. So 199 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: you force everybody in. Everybody's now a skin in the game. 200 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 1: You gotta work together, even if you don't like each other. 201 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: And I think that a bunch of these nations would 202 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,079 Speaker 1: rather that because they see Iran as this constant, looming threat. 203 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: They'll deal with trying to figure out who's going to 204 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: be the hegemonic power Turkey or Saudi. 205 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 2: Arabia in the region. So what is the where is 206 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 2: the real concern? 207 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: It's not that you want Israel to take these hits, 208 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: it's that who else. 209 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 2: Other players don't seem to want this either. 210 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 3: You know, for forty seven years, the Iranians have not 211 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 3: played well with anybody there. The Turks talk to them, 212 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:16,199 Speaker 3: but that's about it. The Iraqis have also speak to 213 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 3: them because they're aligned from their religious aspects of them. 214 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 3: But Syria remains a wildcard. The Saudis hate the Iranians 215 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 3: because there's a different sect of the Muslim religion, and 216 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 3: so you know, there's no expectation that the Iranians are 217 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 3: all of a suddenly going to agree to play and 218 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 3: get along with everybody just for the base of survival. 219 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 3: Now I'm sure the regime would like to survive here, 220 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 3: but the calculus I think they're doing is if they 221 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 3: could get a nuclear weapon, they'll look at what's happened 222 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 3: in history. They'll look at places like Libya, and they'll 223 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 3: look at places where these countries that didn't get the 224 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,080 Speaker 3: nuclear capability and what happened to their leadership, which is 225 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 3: what I think they're with their face, their face that 226 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 3: their regime is not going to survive, and there's nobody 227 00:11:58,040 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: in the reason that wants that to happen. 228 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired in the United States 229 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 1: Army military analyst, Now let's get into how hitting military 230 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: targets helps the people. President Trump said to the protesters 231 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: who desperately want the Eye totally gone, they do not 232 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: want this Islamic yoke on them anymore. They're not Muslims, 233 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: not a Muslim nation, but we the President said, help 234 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: is on its way and then talks about military targets. 235 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: Now I can appreciate you take out military targets to 236 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: soften them up, to make it easier to. 237 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: Do other things. 238 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: But how does the president now live up to the 239 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: words help is on its way if you don't break 240 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: the IRGC. You're making an argument of And so first 241 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 1: I'm really hearing of it, regarding that there are two 242 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: types of views in the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 243 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: which is the group that keeps the oppression on the people, 244 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: that a younger generation doesn't want to go down the 245 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 1: road to the older generation. But it seems like everybody 246 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 1: will do anything as long as the money is flowing. 247 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: Isn't the better move to stop the money from flowing? 248 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:04,719 Speaker 1: And that would mean if there's going to be some 249 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: level of bombing raid, how about hitting the oil fields 250 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: and figuring you'll remake them later. 251 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 3: Well, you know, those are not military targets, and I 252 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 3: think that that would create a future problem for the people. 253 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 3: And anytime we do go to war and have a 254 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 3: conflict like that, we try to keep the infrastructure in place. 255 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 3: Even our enemies try to do that. The Russians only 256 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 3: recently are going after the Ukrainian infrastructure, knowing full well 257 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 3: that if they wanted to take it over, they have 258 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 3: to repair it. So the bigger challenge would be the 259 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:37,439 Speaker 3: Uranians deciding to mine the state of Remotes or deciding 260 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 3: to create havoc there with other countries moving what's one 261 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 3: fifth of the of the of the oil supply of 262 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 3: the world through that very tenuous area there that the 263 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 3: United States now has to has to guard and make 264 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 3: sure it goes through. But you've got to go after 265 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 3: the military targets. From a legal perspective that I think 266 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 3: that if all those things factor, it's not legal for 267 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 3: us to go after the leadership. For example, there's no 268 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 3: way this is not Maduro, this is not Venezuela. We're 269 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,400 Speaker 3: not going to target Komenie, We're not going to target 270 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 3: any of the Mulah's there. That just doesn't make any 271 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 3: real sense. So again, if you destroy and take down 272 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 3: the military and take out their capability, you still want 273 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 3: to hope that they just didn't quote from within, because 274 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 3: no troops on the ground, The army's not in this fight. 275 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 3: There's no army troops ready to invade or anything like that. 276 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 3: So this is all has to come from within. 277 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: When you take a look at the rest of the board, 278 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 1: you take a look at the rest of how the 279 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: world is watching this. You take a look at what 280 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: we did in Venezuela and the capture of Maduro. Is 281 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: there a scenario by which the United States is saying, 282 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: we want to do this because it is going to 283 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 1: allow us. You know, you're the guy who wrote the 284 00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: article and quasi coined the phrase Trump and the doctrine 285 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: of visible leverage, which you wrote about when people can 286 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 1: find I believe it real clear policy. You go over 287 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: to that site and this idea that President Trump is 288 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 1: a believer in the full on showing of the force 289 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: to remind other nations what we are capable of. Maduro's 290 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: capture showed a lot of nations what we are capable of. 291 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 1: Is there a move here where the President feels the 292 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: Pentagon feels that this is an opportunity through a very 293 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: very high possibility of low risk. Really say to the 294 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: rest of the world, specifically China and to a smaller extent, Russia, 295 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: we are more capable than you understand. 296 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 2: We had to show you a little bit. Don't bother 297 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 2: us again. Is there a bit of that going on? 298 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: Possibly? I think that they really believe that this is 299 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 3: the right thing to do. That the Iranian nuclear capability, 300 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 3: he threatens the peace in that region. And this president 301 00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 3: wants to take care of this problem right now. That's 302 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 3: been a problem for forty seven years to the United States. 303 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 3: So I applaud him from that perspective. But there's a 304 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 3: lot more risk in this situation. This is a much 305 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 3: more sophisticated military. They have air defense artillery that has 306 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 3: come in from China over the last eight months. They 307 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 3: commanders expect losses, and the fact that we pulled off 308 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 3: that Venezuela mission was nothing short of miraculous. But that's 309 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 3: not to say that would be the same right now. 310 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 3: For example, there's so many different things. If they decide 311 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 3: to attack this week, the nighttime mid moon illumination is 312 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 3: getting better, and that's not good for our pilots, and 313 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 3: so that the President is going to take the time 314 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 3: to make sure that if we do something militarily, it 315 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 3: gives us the best possible advantage, which is at night 316 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 3: when we could see things that our enemy can't see. 317 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 3: But you have to have this expectation of something still 318 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 3: could go very wrong, and nothing is guaranteed. 319 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analyst m 320 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: a J for Major Mike Lions y O n S 321 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: m Aj. Mike Lyons on the Twitter X find him there. 322 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,400 Speaker 1: Moore is coming up on Tony Katz. This is Tony 323 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 1: Katz today