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Speaker 1: Now Lord only knows where the markets are going to end,

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Speaker 1: and who knows. You know, people listen to this show

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Speaker 1: at all different times. Some people are with us live,

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Speaker 1: and some people are with us on podcasts, and some

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Speaker 1: people all sorts of hearing it in the evening. Show

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Speaker 1: plays everywhere all the time. I'm Tony Kats. The show

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Speaker 1: is Tony Kats Today.

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Speaker 2: Good to be with you. Find everything at tonycats dot com.

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Speaker 1: But midday on Friday, right end of the week, a

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Speaker 1: week before Halloween, the Dow was up over five hundred points.

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Speaker 2: And it's up over five hundred.

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Speaker 1: Points because inflation's at three percent and the market believes

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Speaker 1: that ray cuts are going to come. I'm gonna save

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Speaker 1: this again for the people in the cheap seats because

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Speaker 1: it makes no damn sense. Inflation is at three percent,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I think it's three point six percent.

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Speaker 1: The market is cheering the three percent I say three

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Speaker 1: point six percent inflation, and they think a rate cut

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Speaker 1: is going to come. I can make no sense of

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Speaker 1: this economy. Doctor Matt will joins us economist at the

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Speaker 1: University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 2: Let me try and understand.

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Speaker 1: Sir, at least set a baseline for the conversation. The

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Speaker 1: consumer price index showed a point three percent increase on

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Speaker 1: the month. They say over at CNBC, that creates in

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Speaker 1: an annual inflation rate of three percent. I say, that creates,

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Speaker 1: based on your math, three point six percent. But they

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Speaker 1: also go on to say that because that is lower

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Speaker 1: than the expectation of point four percent, everybody should be cheering,

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Speaker 1: popping champagne, chugging bourbon, doing lines off of whoever they

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Speaker 1: could hire to do lines off of, and be super excited.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, by the way, don't do lines. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: This makes no This makes no sense that we're all

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Speaker 1: sort of excited on three percent inflation, which I say

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Speaker 1: is three point six.

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Speaker 2: So walk me down the road.

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Speaker 1: What is the consumer price index and what did it

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Speaker 1: tell us this month?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's three point six because it's point three, and

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Speaker 3: the course you and I know how to do maths,

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Speaker 3: so we multiply it by twelve and we get three

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Speaker 3: point six. Where the government, which is politically motivated, kind

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Speaker 3: of tries to report it differently. But that's beside the point.

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Speaker 3: The reason the market reacted so much to this is

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Speaker 3: because the market is starved for data. We haven't got

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Speaker 3: any data there hasn't been any data released. This report

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Speaker 3: is two weeks old. This is supposed to come out

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Speaker 3: two weeks ago. In fact, the only reason we got

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Speaker 3: it is because they needed it to calculate the COLA,

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Speaker 3: the cost of living adjustment for Social Security. If it

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Speaker 3: weren't for that, we wouldn't have got this data today.

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Speaker 3: So the market is so desperate for data. When it

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Speaker 3: got the data, it reacted, and you know what, it

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Speaker 3: was better than expected. It was supposed to be point four.

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Speaker 3: It was point three. So the market over reacted because

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Speaker 3: it's the only data it's had. It's looking, it's desperate,

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Speaker 3: and it finally got some information, so it reacted. But

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Speaker 3: let me add it also reacted because of some other

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Speaker 3: good news. The S and P does a flash PMI report.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best one. The one that comes out

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Speaker 3: next week is the best one from ISM. It's a

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Speaker 3: manufacturing report. That manufacturing report that came out today actually

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Speaker 3: said good news. It said that it looks like we're

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Speaker 3: going to have an expansion of manufacturing. We'll see next week.

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Speaker 3: But the flash report indicates a probable growth, and we've

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Speaker 3: had seven months of shrinking, declining manufacturing, so we have

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Speaker 3: to wait to next week. But those two things, Tony,

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Speaker 3: that's what caused the market bumper.

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Speaker 1: So any data or any port in a storm, any

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Speaker 1: data you're saying they saw as something they could utilize.

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Speaker 1: And because there was a little bit of twisting to

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Speaker 1: get to the good good news, it's like saying that, hey,

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Speaker 1: I got.

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Speaker 2: A place in Manhattan with a view.

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Speaker 1: If I'm standing in the bathroom on the toilet and

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Speaker 1: looking out between seven and seven fifteen am, I have

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Speaker 1: a great view of the Hudson River.

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Speaker 2: So they're looking for anything they can gom onto.

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Speaker 1: But the bigger story here is that we might see

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Speaker 1: an increase in manufacturing.

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Speaker 2: Where does that come from?

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Speaker 3: That's from S and P. Their flash report says this

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Speaker 3: might happen. Now, I'm not holding any my breath on

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Speaker 3: this one. And the reason is, even if we do

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Speaker 3: see a growth, I think it's going to be AI driven.

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Speaker 3: You know, I want to say this. I think there's

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Speaker 3: the tale of two economies we're dealing with. There's AI

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Speaker 3: and there's everybody else. Today IBM announced that they're taking

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Speaker 3: their business away from Intel, shoving it over to AMD.

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Speaker 3: AMD has this huge contract, They've got a huge bump

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Speaker 3: their AI AI up. AI is up across the board.

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Speaker 3: But General Motors just announced two hundred layoffs. Target just

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Speaker 3: announced eighteen hundre job cuts. Procter and Gamble just announced

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Speaker 3: a decrease of demand the non AI industry. By the way,

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Speaker 3: that's just today. The non AI industries still look bad.

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Speaker 3: So I think, what's what's highlighting the S and P

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Speaker 3: slash report? Is Ai AI is driving this economy?

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Speaker 2: Still its AI driving manufacturing?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Well yeah, because AI makes chips, AI makes chips,

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Speaker 3: AI builds data centers. I mean, yeah, there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of stuff. Not how amon you think AI.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's not how we normally think of manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: But that's a that's a great point. Now it becomes

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Speaker 1: a lot easier to understand talking to doctor Matt Will

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Speaker 1: economists at the University of Indianapolis. By the way, I

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Speaker 1: read that story about Targets in the Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 1: eighteen hundred jobs. But these are corporate jobs, are they

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Speaker 1: and there are two hundred open roles that they.

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Speaker 2: Are now getting rid of.

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Speaker 1: Did they realize they could do more with less? Because

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Speaker 1: I would consider that a positive thing for a company.

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Speaker 3: And it is. Let's go back to why the market's up.

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Speaker 3: You know you are hitting on this thing. You said

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Speaker 3: it doesn't make any sense. You are pointing out where

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Speaker 3: it does make sense. If I'm a company and I

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Speaker 3: can be more efficient because of AI, it does my

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Speaker 3: ordering for me, It does my distribution. It allocates my

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Speaker 3: materials and my goods to the proper store. I need

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Speaker 3: less labor. So yes, AI is driving all the gain

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Speaker 3: in the economy. I can't emphasize this enough, but if

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Speaker 3: you're not AI, you're in trouble. Thirty nine percent of

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Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred has lost money this year.

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Speaker 3: Let me say that clearly again. Thirty nine percent of

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Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred companies have lost money

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Speaker 3: this year. Foreign That is not a broad based recovery.

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Speaker 2: Four and ten have lost money.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: So it's not that the AI itself works as advertised.

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Speaker 1: It's that the money is pouring in and is seen

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Speaker 1: now in a lets a building of AI infrastructure, and

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Speaker 1: that's manufacturing, and that is driving the entirety of our

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Speaker 1: economy right now.

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Speaker 3: I would say mostly forty four percent of the gain

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Speaker 3: of this year's S and P five hundred and the

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Speaker 3: S and p's up. It's up fifteen percent year to date.

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Speaker 3: Forty four percent of it has come from the mag seven,

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Speaker 3: which is almost all AI. Let me look at Procter

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Speaker 3: and Gamble. Procter and Gamble announced record profits and then

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Speaker 3: decreasing demand for their product. What does that tell you.

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Speaker 3: They're using AI as well. They're doing distribution, they're doing

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Speaker 3: allocation of resources, they're purchasing patterns, they're manufacturing. It's all

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Speaker 3: using AI. But AI is driving things.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying no, I think that your point is taken.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you something else that took place in

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Speaker 1: terms of earnings and beating expectations.

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Speaker 2: Airline stocks.

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Speaker 1: There's a couple of airline stocks that have beaten expectations.

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Speaker 1: I don't even know how that's possible. More people are flying,

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Speaker 1: or they're charging more to fly, and the same amount

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Speaker 1: of people are flying because they have to and that's

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Speaker 1: turned out to be a more profitable response.

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Speaker 2: Or is AI now dealing with my flights?

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Speaker 1: Which is just the scariest proposition in the world.

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Speaker 3: All of the above, the truth is that airline prices

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Speaker 3: have gone up substantially. I believe it's about between ten

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Speaker 3: and fifteen percent. And we've seen record flying even during

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Speaker 3: the shutdown of the government. The fall break travel set

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Speaker 3: records this year, so we've seen record travel, increase in

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Speaker 3: prices and AI is not flying. You're playing Tony, but

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Speaker 3: AI is determining the prices. They're able to maximize their

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Speaker 3: price by figuring out how you're searching. I recommend that

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Speaker 3: you not go to the website for your prices. You

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Speaker 3: go to a non a third party to find the

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Speaker 3: price and then go to the airline and buy it.

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Speaker 1: You're talking about dynamic pricing things, Yes, things like that

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Speaker 1: that are used in concert and in other ways. When

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Speaker 1: is the most opportunity time when most people buying what

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Speaker 1: is they're determining where the pressure moments are and then

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Speaker 1: supply and demands being very very real things. One of

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Speaker 1: the other things that you discussed, you know four percent

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Speaker 1: of the game is from AI. It used to be

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Speaker 1: it was the fang stocks, right, it was Facebook, Apple, Amazon,

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Speaker 1: I forget.

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Speaker 2: What the n was gus Google and is not interview?

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Speaker 2: Was it Nvidia? No?

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Speaker 3: Netflix?

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Speaker 2: Netflix?

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Speaker 3: Clucks?

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Speaker 1: Are you telling me that those things aren't the drivers

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Speaker 1: now or they are just in this AI capacity.

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Speaker 3: Some of them are Amazon is still in the equation. Face.

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Speaker 3: Meta is still in the equation, but they've shifted. They

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Speaker 3: are more an AI driven company. Now, I could give

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Speaker 3: you a boring story about how Amazon's been using AI

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Speaker 3: since twenty fifteen and they've really picked up the pace.

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Speaker 3: So no AI is driving this growth. And you're right,

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Speaker 3: the thing has been replaced by the Mag seven. But

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Speaker 3: the Mag seven is real, you know, I know. I

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Speaker 3: hear you talk about it a lot about you know,

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Speaker 3: how AI comes into the media world, and you know,

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Speaker 3: but I must tell you it is legitimate. I've seen

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Speaker 3: it increase value. I met with people this week in

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Speaker 3: person who are telling me how much it's helping their

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Speaker 3: plumbing company, how much is helping their their workout department

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Speaker 3: of their financial institution. AI is definitely it's a revolutionary

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Speaker 3: productivity game changer.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: the Mag seven is the Magnificent seven stocks. So it's

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Speaker 1: alphabet which is Google, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla.

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Speaker 1: Those are the mag seven. We haven't had a discussion

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Speaker 1: here about tariffs. You had Aaron Ross Sorkin over there

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Speaker 1: at CNBC discussing, Oh I got the tariffs wrong. I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure what I'm supposed to get right or

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Speaker 1: get wrong. Tariffs are taxes.

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Speaker 2: I haven't changed on this. These are just the facts.

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Speaker 1: We're paying more for products, and yet somehow everybody's happy.

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Speaker 3: No, No, Toyota USA is losing money. GM is losing money.

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Speaker 3: John Deere is losing money. The companies that the tariffs

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Speaker 3: are supposed to help manufacturing have been hurt.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 3: Not for the AI, this economy would be in the toilet.

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Speaker 3: I sincerely believe that the tariffs have counteracted so many

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Speaker 3: of the great things Trump has done. And you know

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Speaker 3: this is where the trolls are going to say, Oh,

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Speaker 3: he's loom, doom and gloom. Good. I am doom and gloom.

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Speaker 3: Tariffs are bad. They're dragging the economy down. Trump is

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Speaker 3: his own worth worst enemy. Everything he's doing is hitting

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Speaker 3: on all cylinders except for the tariffs, and we see

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Speaker 3: it across the board in manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: Except he keeps saying it's the greatest word in the world.

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Speaker 1: Everything's great. We're taking in all of this money. What

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Speaker 1: do you There's been conversations about what he's going to

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Speaker 1: do with the money. It's been a conversation's gonna pay

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Speaker 1: off debt and then all of a sudden, it's going

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Speaker 1: to help out the farmers.

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Speaker 2: And then what about a subsidy for this?

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Speaker 1: You've collected these billions of dollars from the American people.

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Speaker 2: What would you do with it?

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Speaker 3: What would I do with it?

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Speaker 2: What would you do with it? You're doctor Matt Will.

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Speaker 1: You've got the power to decide what happens to all

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Speaker 1: the dollars collected by taris.

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Speaker 2: What are you gonna do with it?

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Speaker 3: Okay, assuming the terrorists exists, I would pay off the debt.

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Speaker 3: First of all, I don't want the terroiffs because tarists

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Speaker 3: are taxes, and I don't agree with increasing taxes. But

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Speaker 3: if you've taken the tax increased, which he has big

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Speaker 3: tax increase, and he's collected the money, then just pay

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Speaker 3: off the debt. Don't become a democrat. Don't be given

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Speaker 3: out goodies and handing money out to people. That's not

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Speaker 3: what a capitalist does. That's what a socialist does. And

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Speaker 3: I'm not a fan of taking money from one person

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Speaker 3: and given it to another.

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Speaker 1: To Matt Weell economists at the University of Indianapolis, I

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Speaker 1: appreciate and taking the time more.

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Speaker 2: To get to. I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz

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Speaker 2: today