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Speaker 1: So as we were saying, you've got the shutdown that

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Speaker 1: is preventing the Bureau of Labor Statistics from putting out

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Speaker 1: its numbers. I mean, it could put out the numbers,

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Speaker 1: but no one's working or they're not getting paid to work.

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Speaker 1: The point is they're not putting out the numbers, so

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Speaker 1: we don't know jobs numbers in a whole host of things.

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Speaker 1: Yet the market up three hundred points plus. Who knows

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Speaker 1: where it'll end, But it hasn't shown that it's somehow

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Speaker 1: bothered or affected by any of this.

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Speaker 2: Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, good to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Doctor mattwill joins us economist at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with some basic stuff here. Do you need

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Speaker 2: the numbers? Do they even matter to the markets?

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Speaker 3: Well, they do matter, but we can't get them. I'll

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Speaker 3: answer your question in more details in a moment. But

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Speaker 3: Elizabeth Warren, she's screaming to release the report, and you

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Speaker 3: had just mentioned, well, could we release support. We actually

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Speaker 3: can't because people compile the report, they do surveys, and

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Speaker 3: they haven't been working for two days. They're working on

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Speaker 3: the same until the last minute, so it's just not available.

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Speaker 3: First of all, does it matter, Yes, and no, Okay,

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Speaker 3: it does matter because we need data that tells us

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Speaker 3: the direction of the market. We need data to tell

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Speaker 3: us if there's a trend. But no, we don't need

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Speaker 3: it because we have the ADP data, we have the

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Speaker 3: ISM data, we have the information that came out from

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Speaker 3: the GDP recently up to three point eight percent. We've

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Speaker 3: got other information, and we all know the labor market

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Speaker 3: is weak. So all this would do is reinforce what

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Speaker 3: we already know. So it's not the end of the world.

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Speaker 3: It's fine that we don't get the report today.

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Speaker 1: But it's clear that people do utilize those reports for

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Speaker 1: a level of reaction, and it can keep the market timid,

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Speaker 1: it can make things explode. But when you see a

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Speaker 1: day like today, you are left with the feeling of

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Speaker 1: First of all, shutdowns don't affect anything, which is an

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Speaker 1: argument that I have made in part and the other

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Speaker 1: part of it is the market doesn't care what the

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Speaker 1: numbers say. Whatever makes things go up and allows them

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Speaker 1: to cash.

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Speaker 2: Out, only thing that matters.

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Speaker 1: We saw oil refineries in Russia getting bombed by Ukraine

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Speaker 1: and oil prices went down, So do the numbers matter?

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Speaker 1: Anymore to this economy into this market.

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Speaker 3: No, they do matter. We need data. You can't make

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Speaker 3: a decision. You don't know if there's too many people

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Speaker 3: being laid off or too many people being hired. I

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Speaker 3: guess you can't have too many people being hired. You

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Speaker 3: don't know if the economy is growing or the economy shrinking. No,

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Speaker 3: you need data. Without data, you can't make decisions. Even

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Speaker 3: though the data is flawed, and we've talked about that

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Speaker 3: on your show. The BLS data is flawed, but the

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Speaker 3: market knows it's flawed. The market fixes the data. It says, Okay,

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Speaker 3: it's going to come in low, but we're going to

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Speaker 3: revise it even lower. We need the data, and the

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Speaker 3: market is good at it. But we have lots of data.

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Speaker 3: It's not the end of the world if we don't

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Speaker 3: get this today now. Long term, we need it long term.

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Speaker 3: The Fed uses this long term, This Congress and the

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Speaker 3: President uses this data to make decisions. So we do

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Speaker 3: need it. But trust me, we can live today. And

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Speaker 3: by the way, the market's up. Why is it up?

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Speaker 3: Because it Alreadys incorporated this in when the ADP data

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Speaker 3: came out and it was negative, and that reinforced previous

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Speaker 3: data we had that was negative on the labor market.

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Speaker 3: It's already in, it's already baked in. There's no news

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Speaker 3: to be made if the BLS gives us another report

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Speaker 3: that says labors down.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: let let me give you a couple other pieces of

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Speaker 1: economic stuff. So I knew I wanted to talk to

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Speaker 1: you about this, but I'm going to throw this stuff

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Speaker 1: at you. Let's see how quick you are on your fee.

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Speaker 1: Tesla said there was an increase in sales in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter. This matches a story regarding Tesla and General

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Speaker 1: Motors leading record US EV sales electric vehicles. Is this

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Speaker 1: all because the incentivectives are ending? Or is is this

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Speaker 1: the news that all the firebombings of Tesla is now

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Speaker 1: over and now you can own one without having a keyed.

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Speaker 3: No, what happened was we had a political ramification to

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk being in the government and that hurt his business.

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Speaker 3: That's an anomaly. These are things that shock the market temporarily.

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Speaker 3: That's now gone and we're now back into normal business operations.

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Speaker 3: And normal business operations. Is that Tesla is dominating the

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Speaker 3: EV market. They have lower cost production. I could give

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Speaker 3: you specifics, Tony about what they do with their semiconductor

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Speaker 3: chips they put in their cars. How they have almost

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Speaker 3: a unibody type when it comes to welding. No one

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Speaker 3: can compete with them even close in the production quality

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Speaker 3: of what they're making. Now they're just we're back into

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Speaker 3: the Okay, who's the best and guess who's the best Tesla.

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Speaker 3: So Tesla's growing again. The politics are set to the side,

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Speaker 3: and now actual performance matters. And I'm going to say

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Speaker 3: this very emphatically. The government has to get out of

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Speaker 3: the darn picture. Let business success and business failure rule

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Speaker 3: the day and not the business manipulating the market. And

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Speaker 3: Tesla's back to its normal business operations and I'm happy

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Speaker 3: to see that.

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Speaker 1: Also, if we take a look at the markets, we

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Speaker 1: take a look at April eighth and the Tesla stock price,

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Speaker 1: which full disclosure in a fund I do own Tesla

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Speaker 1: is it was two twenty one and right now the

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Speaker 1: stock is closed.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday at four twenty nine. Is that what I'm saying.

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Speaker 1: The moral of the story is things have been on

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Speaker 1: an upward climb for Tesla over the last months. This

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Speaker 1: was all a reaction to Doge and leaving and the

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Speaker 1: so called fight, the spat between Trump and Musk.

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Speaker 2: That was everything.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that's exactly what it was. And quite honestly, let's

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Speaker 3: be let's be blunt with your listeners. Elon Musk was

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Speaker 3: not folks and on Tesla. He was focusing on the government.

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Speaker 3: He's now the world's first half a trillionaire. Congratulations Devon.

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Speaker 3: I'm happy that you're successful. And he is focusing back

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Speaker 3: on his business again and now it's doing better. Thank

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Speaker 3: goodness for him, Thank goodness for Tesla owners and the

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Speaker 3: Tesla shareholders, the Doze saying we need it. You and I.

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Speaker 3: I wish he were running Doze, but I feel good

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Speaker 3: for him and his company because that's where his focus

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Speaker 3: is at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economists at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: let me bring you another story.

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Speaker 2: This is the CEO of Goldman Sachs.

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Speaker 1: It seems that a lot of these guys on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street take the money and are always screaming that the

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Speaker 1: sky is falling. I'm one of the people who argues, well,

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Speaker 1: the sky does eventually fall. I'm just stunned it hasn't

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Speaker 1: fallen yet. He's at a tech week in Turin, Italy,

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Speaker 1: and he believes a drawdown is likely to hit the stock.

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Speaker 2: Markets in the coming two years.

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Speaker 1: My problem here is I've been hearing about a draw down,

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Speaker 1: a reduction, a slow down, a things getting back.

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Speaker 2: To maybe a more normal number.

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Speaker 1: I've been hearing about this for five years and it

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Speaker 1: hasn't happened yet. What makes Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon

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Speaker 1: say this? And does anybody in the market as you

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Speaker 1: observe these things from a very intimate level, do you

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Speaker 1: think that the market is preparing itself in what it's

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Speaker 1: been doing for Okay, this party's gonna end sometime soon.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna enter some rough times.

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Speaker 3: Okay, you want a lightning round but I can't give

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Speaker 3: you a lightning round answer on this one.

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Speaker 2: Take it time and I got tom, I have bourbon.

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Speaker 2: We're good.

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Speaker 3: So, first of all, is the market going to turn down? Yes, eventually,

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Speaker 3: at some point. We all see the economic data pointing

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Speaker 3: to negative directions. The trades are the trade war is

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Speaker 3: finally harming the economy. We see it in prices now

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Speaker 3: up to four point eight percent. We see it in

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Speaker 3: the employment reports which are negative. So yeah, there's bad news.

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Speaker 2: So wow.

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Speaker 3: David Solomon is a genius because he predicts the future.

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Speaker 3: I think we all know there may be a recession

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Speaker 3: around the corner. Maybe maybe I'm gonna talk about the

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Speaker 3: AI stuff in a moment. But David Solomon is self serving.

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Speaker 3: I hope he doesn't listen to your show because he'll

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Speaker 3: probably send his lawyers after me. David Simon. Solomon is

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Speaker 3: self serving because Goldman Sachs makes money on churn, on

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Speaker 3: buying and selling, so if there's going to be a drawdown,

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Speaker 3: then people are going to rush to sell and change

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Speaker 3: the portfolio mixture. He makes money on that. His business

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Speaker 3: is making money by you trading, and if you reallocate

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Speaker 3: your assets to a different category, he makes money. This

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Speaker 3: is very self serving what he's saying. He is not

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Speaker 3: some expert economist. He runs a company that's based on

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Speaker 3: trading and that's what he does. And he's self serving

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Speaker 3: in his comments. I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm saying

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Speaker 3: he's very self serving in his comments.

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Speaker 1: Before I let you go talking to doctor Matt Will,

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Speaker 1: economist at the University of Indianapolis, let's talk.

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Speaker 2: About this shutdown.

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Speaker 1: The shutdown has really not thrown anything into the works

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Speaker 1: of the market, hasn't really thrown anything into the works

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Speaker 1: to mess up the works of everyday Americans. And this shutdown,

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Speaker 1: it only gets us through to November twenty first, where

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Speaker 1: we're going to be having this conversation all over again.

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Speaker 1: Is it that Americans have gotten used to shutdowns or

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Speaker 1: the threats of shutdowns and we've baked it into the cake.

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Speaker 1: Is there something different about what we're seeing and is

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Speaker 1: there something different about what might come down the road

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Speaker 1: that really does have an effect on the economy.

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm going to say this is a different kind

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Speaker 3: of shutdown because Trump is now in charge of this shutdown,

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Speaker 3: and this is actually good for the economy. In the

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Speaker 3: previous administrations, when we had a shutdown and the president

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Speaker 3: in charge was a Democrat and that we had this

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Speaker 3: massive government bureaucracy, then the world couldn't function without the government.

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Speaker 3: Trump has been getting the government out of your hair.

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Speaker 3: He's been taking them out of your life. So guess what,

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Speaker 3: we're independent now, We're functioning independently without big brother over

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Speaker 3: our shoulder. So no, I think this government shutdown is

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Speaker 3: a different kind of one. Because we don't need the

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Speaker 3: government the moment. We can survive without them. And lo

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Speaker 3: and behold you said it for the last few times

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Speaker 3: you've commented on this. Yeah, we're seemed to be doing fine.

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Speaker 3: Now we can't do long term. Okay, the military has

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Speaker 3: to get paid, the police need to be paid, Ice

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Speaker 3: needs to be paid, for sure, so you know, let's

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Speaker 3: you can't go on forever. But I think Trump is

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Speaker 3: managing it very well.

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Speaker 1: But you don't think that even if there was something prolonged,

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Speaker 1: whether it be now, whether it be this conversation in November,

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Speaker 1: whether these Obamacare at tax credits get extended or not,

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Speaker 1: there's nothing that.

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Speaker 2: We should be looking at that would.

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Speaker 1: Make you say, well, if X, then you might see

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Speaker 1: something very interesting and why.

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Speaker 3: I would need to know what the specific X is.

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Speaker 3: But I believe that the government being shut down for

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Speaker 3: a little bit isn't a bad idea. And I agree

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Speaker 3: with Trump and your analysis, maybe your analysis of Trump.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if Trump's using your analysis, but this

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Speaker 3: may be an opportunity to cut the fat out of government,

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Speaker 3: because can he fire someone and not just lay them

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Speaker 3: off and not have to bring them back. I think

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Speaker 3: there actually is a doze benefit, a side benefit, an

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Speaker 3: unintended consequence that may benefit the country from this shutdown.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Matt Well, economist at the University of Indianapolis. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time to be with us, more

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Speaker 1: to get to I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz

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Speaker 1: today