WEBVTT - Episode 4657: Tony Katz Today Hour 3 - 08/07/26 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:10.400 Why from Baal Heartland and the crossroads of America. 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.400 It's Tony Katz today. So the economy shed twenty three 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:20.360 thousand jobs in July. It missed the expectations, and the 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:24.160 market said that's cool, and you said something, it's cool 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.240 by us. We're fine with it. We're good with it, 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.880 no problem. As a matter of fact, we'll go up 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:32.440 Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, Good to be with you. 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:38.040 There are reasons, though, there are reasons, including, of course, 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:43.199 inflation and rate hikes. Doctor Mattwell joined as economist at 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:47.720 the University of Indianapolis. I started to understand this one early, 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.200 but I want to understand what's in the jobs report. First, 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.440 you took a look at it. We've got jobs report, 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:59.840 We've got unemployment numbers. Walk me through what the report says, 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.040 the Job's report, and what it says to you. 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:04.920 Okay, Well, I'm going to start off by telling you 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:08.120 that the headline is bad. And just like the other 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:10.720 day we talked about this. You know, headlines are bad, 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.399 but when you look under the hood, it's actually good 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:15.920 for the economy, believe it or not. So let's start 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.720 with the headline minus twenty three thousand jobs, which is 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:23.720 really interesting because the expectation is plus eight eighty thousand, 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:27.600 so this was one hundred thousand job myths. That's a 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.800 big deal. But let's now start looking underneath the hood. 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:34.600 Unemployment rate dropped from four point two to four point 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:39.080 one percent. That's good, okay, Now for the bad. The 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.200 only reason to drop is because the participation rate declined. 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.399 Fewer people are looking for jobs. Fewer people are in 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:49.440 the workforce. Now more bad news for you. Tony, May 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:53.440 and June were revised down by one hundred and three 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:58.720 thousand jobs, so people didn't get employed this quarter. Argue 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.400 this month, two big revisions. I mean, there's a lot 0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.480 going on there that's not good. But there is a 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:10.280 good part to this. The private industry gained thirty thousand jobs, 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:13.359 so there was a growth in private and the government 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.720 lost fifty three thousand. This was all government job loss, 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:21.560 so as far as the market's concerned, good Again, back 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:25.919 to the same scene we've been talking about. Government is contracting, 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:30.000 private industry is growing, and if you look across the board, 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.600 there's some pretty good information in this. I mean, construction 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:38.760 twenty two thousand jobs up, durable goods manufacturing eighteen thousand 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:43.680 jobs up, Transportation warehousing ten thousand jobs up. I mean, 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:47.519 there is good news in this report for the private economy, 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:51.080 and wages didn't grow that much. I know, again that 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.200 sounds bad, but there's a story behind this and why 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:57.000 this job's report is loved by the market. 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:00.880 So I've with you on the government stuff, and I 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.240 have discussed this now in a couple of places. Your 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:06.240 point that GDP gross domestic product one point five percent 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:10.720 bad headline. But if government spending juices GDP, we had 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:13.440 less government spend, which is good for us the taxpayer. 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.840 It just makes the GDP number look worse. But when 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:19.320 you look as you describe it, under the hood, things 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:24.799 on some fundamentals, specifically manufacturing, very very solid. But when 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.840 I took a look at market response and I watched 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.880 the futures go up one hundred points in a blink 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:34.200 of an eye after this report came out, it became 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:36.960 pretty clear to me. And I feel like all this 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:39.840 talking together has finally gotten me some level of degree, 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.040 maybe only in associates, but still them on my way 0:03:43.440 --> 0:03:47.240 that what they saw is the job market might be weaker. 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:50.640 So those in the federal Reserve who are thinking about 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:55.160 rate hikes to tamp down and tamper down inflation. Might 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:58.080 think twice and no rate hikes is where the market 0:03:58.120 --> 0:03:59.480 wants to be true or false. 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.760 Uh close, tony close, I'm giving you a B, not 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:04.080 an A. 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.720 Yeah, teacher, ever. 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:09.640 I'm sorry. Well, every time someone gets the bad grade, 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.440 that's what they tell me. You're very close. The reason 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.800 was the unemployment rate drop. So it's not that the 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.520 job market is bad, it's that the wage growth is 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:24.080 not exorbitant. Wage growth would indicate inflation. So the bad 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.640 part where you're correct is in quotes, wage inflation is 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:32.800 not there. And the unemployment rate stayed at four point one, 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:34.560 I mean four to two to four to one, so 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:39.080 we didn't have hot unemployment. If we had significantly increasing unemployment, 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.760 there would be pressure on the SAD to cut rates. 0:04:43.279 --> 0:04:47.520 There's inflation, which seems to be in this case moderate 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:52.560 not outrageous. Moderate, which is less pressure to increase rates. 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.360 So the said, here's what happened this morning. In the markets, 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:59.320 there is a fifty seven percent chance that said was 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:03.480 going to do a rate hike in September. There's stuff 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:06.080 on Wall Street and the options market in futures, the 0:05:06.120 --> 0:05:09.520 market that predicts this that went down as soon as 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:11.599 this came out. As soon as it came out the 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:15.280 news on the unemployment, that probability dropped from fifty seven 0:05:15.320 --> 0:05:19.080 percent to forty seven percent. So the headline is this 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:24.960 inflation argues for a hike, employment argues against it, and 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.280 this morning the employment won. 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:32.480 Talking to doctor Matt will the economist from the University 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:38.160 of Indianapolis, So when you talk about winning this back 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:42.760 and forth, this seems to be a non scientific struggle. 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:46.279 This only seems to be a reaction struggle. Am I 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:46.839 right about that? 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:49.919 Oh? Absolutely, that's exactly what's happening. 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:59.159 So the reaction from Wall Street was that the lack 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:05.760 of of labor participation, which would show us that we 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:11.040 don't have wage inflation, means that everything is getting better. 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:18.520 Yes, But your phrase reaction is why you might get 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:22.120 an aus on this now, because what happened is it's 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:25.719 the reaction to the latest piece of news. You and 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:30.760 I the other day talked about the PCE very high, CPI, 0:06:31.160 --> 0:06:37.440 eh okay, PPI terrible. That was Then today's news is, look, 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:42.799 unemployment is pretty flat. That's good. Wage increase not going 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:47.039 through the roof. So what happened here is today's most 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:52.919 immediate current news reaction is okay, inflation under control, no 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:57.000 rate change. So that's what the market saw. The latest reaction. 0:06:57.360 --> 0:07:00.880 Now you know, something could happen tomorrow and completely changed 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.400 the game again. But this is what the market's doing 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:08.680 with the news that got today. Okay, unemployment's fine, wage inflacement, 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:12.840 inflation is reasonable, no reason to overreact here. So the 0:07:12.920 --> 0:07:17.200 Fed again only a forty four percent chance they're going 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:19.960 to do a rate increase. Now the market likes that. 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.680 The market liked it so much that as soon as 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:28.480 they got that information, the futures jump. Nasdaq futures immediately 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.640 went up one point one percent. S and T future 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:34.720 is one up half a percent instantly, instantly on the 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.000 news coming out. And the tenure treasury, which you talked about, 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:42.240 the tenure treasury sell eight BIPs, eight bases points down 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:44.200 the four point one six or the two year treasury 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:46.640 I mean, and the ten year also went down to 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:50.280 four point six to one immediately reaction lower treasury rates. 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:54.680 Market bumped both Nasdaq and S and P across the board. 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:55.880 The market loves this. 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:59.560 Can discuss something else that I'm surprised I haven't heard 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:03.160 from bet since the Treasury Secretary or President Trump that 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:07.160 the US trade deficit contracted. It went to seventy three 0:08:07.280 --> 0:08:10.560 point three billion in June from seventy seven point six 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:15.120 billion in May. That story just came out earlier this week. 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:19.680 Everything about tariffs is about trade deficits, that somehow trade 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.880 deficits are the end of civilization. I don't believe that 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:25.240 they are. I believe it's a bad reason to implement 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:31.360 tariffs as a concept. Does this trade deficit going down not? 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.240 Does that have an effect on people, on how people 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:40.560 see the market, manufacturing, futures, etc. No. 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:43.040 When you say people, if you're talking about Wall Street 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.680 and financial experts, No, because actually what you saw was 0:08:46.679 --> 0:08:50.800 a blip. The trade deficit has been growing since tariff 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:54.960 institution has been stabilized, and this is exactly what I 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.479 consider a good thing. Again, I'm a fan of trade deficits. 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:01.640 I'm not against them because to cause foreign direct investment, 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:05.560 we buy lots of cheap crap from overseas, and those 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.440 dollars that we spend flow back into the United States 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.720 in the form of investing in our country, which is 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.200 how you grow your economy. So I've got lots of 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.040 research on this. I'm a fan of these trade deficits, 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.120 so I don't think he made a comment about it 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:22.000 because it was just a blip. And if he here's 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.720 the big deal if he were to bring up the topic, Tony, 0:09:24.880 --> 0:09:27.280 the secret between you and me. If he were to 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:30.120 bring that topic up, then everyone would start talking about Wait, 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:33.640 the trade deficits have been growing significantly since you put 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:36.200 the terrorists in place, So I think he wants to 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:37.600 avoid that topic altogether. 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:42.840 Talking to doctor Matt Will, economists at the University of Indianapolis, 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:48.080 let's continue the conversation if we would, if we can, 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.000 because I have mentioned that there have been a couple 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.960 of FED governors before this report came out today and 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:57.520 the market is making their bet. A couple of FED 0:09:57.559 --> 0:10:00.200 governors have said it's time for a rate increase. The 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:05.480 inflation is not down, we need a rate hike. Are 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.600 are they correct? Does this report change them at all? 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:15.840 It changes them? They're correct that inflation isn't gone, but 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:21.079 their solution is wrong, and this report gives wash some 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:23.920 time to adjust. And this is where it gets that 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:29.000 complex assets thing again. They had a legitimate point, do 0:10:29.040 --> 0:10:31.640 you want to camp down inflation? And one of the 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:33.880 tools you do it is to increase rates. Well, when 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:36.720 you increase rates, that's going to decrease investment because money 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:40.000 costs more. So that's a you know, one of the 0:10:40.040 --> 0:10:42.480 things Trump always argues against me. But there's another way 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.200 to control inflation, and that's what Warsh is trying to do. 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:50.600 He's slowly moving the ship. He Slowly's got this commission going. 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.760 It's going to look at selling assets off the balance sheet. 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.880 Good for him. So he's working on that, and this 0:10:56.960 --> 0:11:00.280 report gives him cover. It gives him more time to 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:04.000 let his political technique, his little commission do its job, 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:06.000 because he's going to be able to say to these 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:10.079 three governors, Okay, hold on, can't you see look unemployment flat, 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:13.400 no reason to increase rates. Everything's wonderful right now, people 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:16.640 go back into your corner. So I think this buys 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:20.040 him time to not worry about the whole rape situation 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.080 while he gets his ducks in line to do a 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:25.880 huge asset sale. And I think he's going to pull 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.839 it off. I'm confident, I'm patient, and I think he's 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:29.440 going to succeed. 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:31.400 I want to see it happen, like I want to 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.560 see how that plays out. But there were some other 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.400 things that happen I want people to be aware of 0:11:35.559 --> 0:11:39.080 in the market, and you've been making mention of this. 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:43.160 We've talked often about layoffs, right, a lot of layoffs 0:11:43.160 --> 0:11:46.080 in Tech Wall Sheet Journal, discussing the fact that the 0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:48.440 new data shows that job cuts are down forty one 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.959 percent so far this year, which would make one believe that, Okay, 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:56.160 we've done enough cutting. Let's actually see if our AI 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:00.000 investments increased productivity. Maybe we just really need these people. 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:02.000 There's only so much you can cut. We saw have 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.440 a business to run, products to sell, et cetera. But 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:11.040 within this is the recognition that software is getting the living, 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.920 not kicked out of it. That when we talk all 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.840 about the technology and AI transforming the economy and all 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:20.840 that jazz software, I don't know if they mean software 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.600 as a service or software in general is getting slapped around. 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:27.120 What is happening in that in that sector? 0:12:27.880 --> 0:12:31.000 Well, I like what you said. You said productivity, and 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:34.760 we've seen in fact, today's report had a two percent 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:39.200 increase in productivity. So that is a side benefit at 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:43.439 a consequence the main benefit of AI. So what's happening 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.040 And you're right, it's SaaS as a service, software as 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.640 a service, I should say. And what's happening is companies 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:52.160 like work Day and Salesforce and Adobe, and we talked 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:56.760 about the other day, IBM while sixty nine billion dollars 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:01.360 in value in one single day because there's software got killed. 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:06.280 So what's happening is AI is replacing software. I'll give 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:09.320 you my own personal example. I've got to put together 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.360 this schedule of classes for students. It takes forever to 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:17.480 go through all the gyrations and the formulas, and I 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:20.400 now have an AI that can do it in minutes 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:25.520 compared todays. There's software on the market that does that. Well, 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:29.120 the people that sell that software, they're not selling the software. 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:31.360 I can just turn on my AI, tell it what 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.600 I want, and it gives me the same output. That 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.440 is what's happening to companies like Workday and Salesforce and 0:13:37.440 --> 0:13:42.480 Adobe and IBM. They're getting beaten down because people can 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.840 go on their computer on their phone and get the 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:49.400 same output quality that they were getting from a piece 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.200 of software that costs them a fortune just two years ago. 0:13:54.240 --> 0:14:01.679 How does this play into overall tech sector? Are there 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:06.600 companies that care about their software products or are they 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:11.920 willing to sacrifice at all to the h on the 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.640 altar of AI because it's the only thing that matters. 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.720 You know what, I don't like this phrase, but I 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:23.760 have to use it. It's a massive paradigm shift that phrase. 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:24.560 You're right about that. 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:27.440 You know again, I don't like using that phrase, but 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.760 that's what's happening. It's what companies are doing. Is it's 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.680 literally Shoepayer's creative destruction that you and I have talked 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:39.440 about before. This whole software industry is being upended. It's 0:14:39.480 --> 0:14:43.680 not going to disappear, it's going to reformulate. So people 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.040 companies that are willing to say, okay, we're going to 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.720 look at this differently. So instead of hiring IBM to 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:51.720 write some software, I'm going to hire a bunch of 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.280 AI experts and they're going to develop prompts and custom 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.600 gems and custom GPPs, and they're going to create these 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:02.800 AI environment so that any one of my lower level 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:07.280 employees can do the same thing that that software was 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:12.200 doing before at a cheaper price. So they're really transforming 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:16.400 their businesses away from reliance on software which is static. 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.120 You've got to buy updates. You know, it has bugs. Yeah, 0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:23.200 AI is not perfect, but it can do the job 0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:27.080 much easier, quicker, and with less overhead. So companies are 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.240 just transform they still have to do the same thing, Tony. 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:32.040 You still got to edit your audio and your videos, 0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:36.080 and you've got to get them published on your various platforms. Well, 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.920 now the AI is going to alleviate your need to 0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.240 buy a bunch of software to do that. 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:45.720 Doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis. I 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:47.920 appreciate you taking the time to be with us more 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:50.440 to get to this is Tony Katz. Today is the 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:54.480 ongoing war in Iran having an impact and negative impact 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:55.720 upon the US economy. 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.880 Oil energy prices are a little bit inflated, but we 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.600 could say that way less that people expected. But we're 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:05.760 mindful of the fact that gasoline prices are high, and 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.960 we're making many steps to help reduce the stress of 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:09.600 that for people. 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:14.760 Can we come over here? The answer is yes. I 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:20.040 mean I like Kevin Hassett a lot. National Economic Council Director, 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:24.800 I like them a lot. But that's were saying a 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:28.920 little bit, a bit of a thing. With the energy prices, 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.240 we still have barrel price up today, Tony Katz. Tony 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.480 Katz today. God's always great to be with you, Thanks 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:39.080 for having me here. The number is not going anywhere 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.920 because there's no deal with Iran. There's no deal with Iran. 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.760 Iran wanted to have a deal where no US or 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:53.600 Israeli tankers could go through the strait. Okay, okay, sure, 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:58.760 sure that's that's that's fantastic. Then there's the story that 0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.360 a deal with a Ran over her moves may require 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:06.760 a compromise from Trump. This is Newsmax with the article 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.960 he divides the world into winners and losers, and this 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.800 would make him a loser according to one expert, and 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:19.040 that is that image would be intolerable for him. So 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.240 this is about levels of control and whether or not 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:25.840 the Iranian regime can still have any control the way 0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:28.840 the Iranians want to see it. They control one route, 0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:33.520 oman controls another route, and so therefore there's still the 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.359 people who make the decisions on who goes through. The Iranians, 0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:43.920 in their entire methodology of negotiation is never ever, ever, 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:48.840 ever relent. Never keep up the heartache, up, keep up 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:51.840 the hassle. The other side relents because they just grow 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:54.840 tired of it, and you win. That's their methodology. Which 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:58.160 is why I have stated from the beginning the only 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:00.120 answer is the end of the regime, because it's the 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.359 only way anything can be done. And all I'm doing, 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.560 I mean, I knew this before Trump put anything out 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:09.720 on social media years ago. He put out on social media. 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:14.280 Iran never won a war, never lost a negotiation. That's 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:18.760 exactly what's happening here. And so if we want to 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.120 talk about how President Trump looks like he lost every day, 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:24.240 it's like, oh, we got We're gonna get to a 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:26.720 deal soon soon. I think we could see something soon. 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:29.480 And he was in the Oval yesterday talking about how 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:31.840 we saw oil prices down to numbers no one thought 0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.760 they could be this loan and we'll get there again soon. 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:37.800 You're telling me about what happened yesterday. I want to 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.000 know what's gonna happen today and what's gonna happen tomorrow. 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.360 Those oil prices are what I'm talking about. You can't 0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:45.920 sell well three months ago it was only a dollar 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:47.520 eighty five a gallon, or two months ago it is 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:49.800 only a dollar eighty five a gallon in Iowa. That 0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:54.119 doesn't move anybody. And every time you say well soon, 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:57.320 well soon, as I have argued, I think he looks 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.720 weak and who is advising him on this because he 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:04.800 doesn't want to look that way. Ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever. 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.560 If you want to argue, mister President, that you can 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.320 string this out for forever, you plenty of patients. Great, 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:13.720 that's a position of strength. But don't tell us a 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.520 deal'll be soon. You know, when the Iranians come to 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.520 us and they beg forgiveness and they surrender, we'll have 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.040 a deal. Than just go wait for them to learn 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:24.520 their lesson. We've got all the time in the world. 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:28.040 It's all on them. That would be a position of strength. 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:46.359 This is Tony Katz today. So the way this was 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:52.480 described was unhinged, which is a term you see often. 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:57.119 It was OutKick putting out a post, and then Fox 0:19:57.200 --> 0:20:01.240 News with Jones OutKick putting out the article Meghan Rapino 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:06.679 goes on an unhinged rant. Unhinged usually means screaming and 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.520 yelling and out of someone's mind. Well, I don't think 0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:13.280 Megan Rapino is screaming or yelling here. She's just out 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.119 of her mind. Tony Katz. Tony Katz today is so 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:18.040 good to be with you, guys. Find everything I do 0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:21.480 at Tony kats dot com. Don't forget to grab the 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:25.080 videos on YouTube and rumble a Tony Katz go and 0:20:25.160 --> 0:20:31.040 subscribe right now. Meghan Rapino, the soccer player who is 0:20:31.400 --> 0:20:34.760 beyond a leftist? Who is I would argue in this 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.679 bit of audio I'm going to share with you, is 0:20:37.680 --> 0:20:40.920 going to prove it hateful. We're talking about a hateful 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:45.480 person here. I would also argue, dishonest person. She's the 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:48.840 one who took the knee in solidarity with Colin Kaepernick 0:20:48.920 --> 0:20:52.040 for the national anthem. Colin Kaepernick didn't even do it 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:55.320 in solidarity with Colin Kaepernick. He wanted attention. He got attention. 0:20:55.560 --> 0:20:57.639 Didn't get a job in the NFL, but he got attention. 0:20:59.240 --> 0:21:03.680 When Dave should said of Colin Kaepernick, he didn't need 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:05.760 to do that. His belly was full, but he did 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:08.480 that for us, No, he did not. Dave has it 0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:11.040 completely wrong. Don't tell me. I can't tell Dave Schappell 0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.120 he's got it wrong. When he's wrong, he's wrong when 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:16.440 he's right. I've agreed many times when he has said 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:18.880 something I haven't thought of, I said, doubt say, that's amazing. 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:21.480 But he's wrong on this. He doesn't have it anywhere 0:21:21.480 --> 0:21:24.320 close and he can engage with me in all the 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:27.520 race this and you don't understand that he wants. In 0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:31.960 the end, I do understand, He's just wrong. Colin Kaepernick 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:34.520 did nothing for anyone else, and no one is stronger 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:37.200 for it. He did not even take a stand by 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:41.439 taking a knee. Not a conversation for another day. Meghan 0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:47.560 Rapino believes, in all of her radical leftism that men 0:21:47.600 --> 0:21:52.840 can be women and trans women which are men, can 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:56.880 be in women's sports. And this is her argument against 0:21:56.880 --> 0:22:03.480 Sophie Cunningham of the Indiana Fever and Riley Gaines, the 0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:07.880 swimmer who took on the madness of was it Mia 0:22:08.000 --> 0:22:11.600 Thomas or whatever his name was, and the swimmers and 0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:15.480 really has made this a front and center issue as 0:22:15.520 --> 0:22:19.320 it should be. Again, I will state we're talking about 0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:21.840 a culture war here that has to be won. It 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.960 is a culture war. I accept the terms. We win, 0:22:25.040 --> 0:22:29.399 they lose. That's that because it's far more than just 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:31.600 about whether or not a man is in women's sports. 0:22:31.920 --> 0:22:35.120 It is about a society written large, of course it is. 0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:37.440 It's about the idea of normalcy. And can I tell 0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:40.200 you I have put out videos about this where I've 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:45.000 discussed Sophie Cunningham being normal and the amount of people 0:22:45.040 --> 0:22:49.760 who come at me, Why in the world would you 0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.879 call it normal? What other people are not normal? Who 0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:56.640 are you to decide what normal is? Sophie Cunningham said, 0:22:56.640 --> 0:22:59.199 girls sports are for girls and if we can't call 0:22:59.240 --> 0:23:02.560 that normal, we can't call anything normal. And I think 0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:09.200 you understand that that's the objective. The objective is to 0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:14.359 end the concept of normalcy. Everything is up to debate, 0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:18.040 everything can be questioned, everything can be seen as okay 0:23:18.240 --> 0:23:20.800 or acceptable. That is a total lack of standards. And 0:23:20.840 --> 0:23:23.119 the answer is no, not going to have that society. 0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:26.320 And I get that it puts people like us on 0:23:26.359 --> 0:23:28.320 the ounce with these other people and they want to 0:23:28.320 --> 0:23:30.399 be very violent about it, and they control a lot 0:23:30.400 --> 0:23:33.960 of the institutions. And my answer is game on, let's 0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:37.480 go do this thing. It's a culture war. We win, 0:23:37.840 --> 0:23:42.600 they lose. That's that men are not women and men 0:23:42.640 --> 0:23:45.000 are not welcome in women's sports. Don't care if you 0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:46.720 like it, don't care if you're happy about it, don't 0:23:46.720 --> 0:23:49.639 care if you cry, and don't scream to me that 0:23:49.760 --> 0:23:52.199 it's going to lead to you committing suicide. Because with 0:23:52.240 --> 0:23:54.920 all due respect. A guy who has spent some time 0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:59.000 being suicidal myself doesn't make me an expert, not an 0:23:59.040 --> 0:24:02.000 expert in what makes someone suicidal. I can only tell 0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:04.680 you where I was in my twenties. Also at nine 0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:08.200 eight eight. That is the suicide prevention hotline. I never called. 0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:12.119 I never did that, but if you need to, you should. 0:24:12.880 --> 0:24:18.200 It gets better, it can, It takes work. I'm right here. Oh. 0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:22.240 My twenties were a miserable experience, and the depression took 0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:24.880