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Speaker 1: Live from val Hartland and the Crossroads of America.

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Speaker 2: It's Tony Katz today. I don't think it's.

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Speaker 1: Possible to discuss the situation in Iran, in the situation

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela without discussing China and the connection points between.

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Speaker 1: And one has to wonder whether or not this was

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Speaker 1: the geopolitical strategy from the Trump administration the whole time.

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Speaker 1: If you already see Iran on the ropes, if you

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Speaker 1: could already capture Maduro and change how oil flows out

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Speaker 1: of Venezuela, therefore change the entire game. You're changing how

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Speaker 1: oil flows out of Iran, changing the entire game.

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Speaker 2: Who does the game change for? Well, certainly there's an

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Speaker 2: effect on China.

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Speaker 1: There a very thirsty country that wants to grow and

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Speaker 1: already has its own issues. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 1: Good to be here, Good to be with you. Steve

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Speaker 1: Yates joins us right now. He's from the Heritage Foundation,

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Speaker 1: Senior Research Fellow for China and National Security Policies, from

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Speaker 1: his days at AFPI, from the other work that he

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Speaker 1: has done. We have had numerous conversations in the past,

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Speaker 1: but it's time to get deep, and I mean real deep.

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Speaker 1: On these subjects, and we have to start where we start,

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Speaker 1: and that's going to be in our hemisphere. With Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: You saw the President make this move, engauge, this capture,

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Speaker 1: this operation that took place where there's a question of

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Speaker 1: the level of hardware we use the level sophistication that

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Speaker 1: we have. The Venezuelans, accordans of first hand accounts, had

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Speaker 1: no idea what was coming. I had no way of countering.

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Speaker 1: But we still have Delsea. Rodriguez is number two in place,

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Speaker 1: so you can argue that the Maduro regime is still

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Speaker 1: in place. So let's start where we start in the

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Speaker 1: Venezuela operation.

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Speaker 2: Was this regime change.

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Speaker 3: Well, Tony, I see it as moving in that direction.

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Speaker 3: But while President Trump sometimes gets labeled by people, mostly

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Speaker 3: who don't like him, as acting in rash ways that

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Speaker 3: don't really have a strategic plan at least if you're

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Speaker 3: looking at this Venezuela exercise, there's a lot more to

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Speaker 3: it than just the flash bang of that extraction, which

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Speaker 3: was amazing in any number of ways. The speed, the

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Speaker 3: lack of fatalities on our part being able to go

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Speaker 3: in and do that, the number of Cubans who were

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Speaker 3: sent home to their little mini Honor Guard a few

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Speaker 3: days ago. There's a whole host of things that were

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Speaker 3: truly amazing about that. But it doesn't happen like that

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Speaker 3: without the armada that had been put in place hitting

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Speaker 3: some of those drug boats, showing a willingness to act

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Speaker 3: on the high seas and hit some of these shipments,

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Speaker 3: making the international community more aware of what these ghost

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Speaker 3: fleets are. And as you rightly point to, there is

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Speaker 3: an international nexus that has been operating out of Venezuela

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Speaker 3: and through these ghost fleets. It involves China, Russia, Iran,

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Speaker 3: a number of other actors, and that very much was

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Speaker 3: front and center. So this is not an Venezuela only

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Speaker 3: kind of move. And I myself know whether it is

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Speaker 3: all about China for President Trump and the team, but

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Speaker 3: they definitely are aware of the way this vibrates in

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Speaker 3: other areas. China is the dominant funder for the Russia

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Speaker 3: war machine. Oil markets are relevant to that calculation. China

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Speaker 3: gets a great deal of oil and other economic activity

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Speaker 3: from Iran, and so both China and Iran have links

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Speaker 3: into Venezuela and China is vulnerable to the Straits of

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Speaker 3: Malacca for the imports of oil that might try to

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Speaker 3: come in a time of crisis, and they saw diversifying

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Speaker 3: to the Venezuelan and supply is important enough to consider

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Speaker 3: digging a second canal across Central America potentially, so very much.

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Speaker 3: China is linked very much. The administration is looking at

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Speaker 3: the echo of these things. But as far as the

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Speaker 3: transition in Venezuela goes, I think that they didn't want

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Speaker 3: to try to go too far, too fast. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot of ghosts of Iraq and Afghanistan that are getting

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Speaker 3: sorted out, and so I see them as making this

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Speaker 3: gradual move. Ultimately that's going to have to go to

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Speaker 3: an election where I do think the opposition should be

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Speaker 3: favored in a free and fair contest.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Steve Yates the Heritage Foundation, where he works

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Speaker 1: on China and national security policy, you mentioned really quick

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Speaker 1: the ghost fleets, and it should be understood that we're

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Speaker 1: not talking about war fleets, We're not talking about battleships.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about how oil that has been sanctioned by

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Speaker 1: the United States so it can't be sold, is actually

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Speaker 1: being purchased by our adversaries, by our enemies, Russia and China.

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Speaker 1: There was a nice write up about this in the

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Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal, I think it was last week, about

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Speaker 1: how this works nine hundred some odd ships.

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Speaker 2: To the extent that you can on this.

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Speaker 1: Idea of these ghost fleets walk us through what it

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Speaker 1: is that's happening and what it is you know.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's sort of like the classical definition of piracy.

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Speaker 3: You have ships that go out with a flag of

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Speaker 3: convenience that if or none at all, where they're not

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Speaker 3: accurately reflecting the country of ownership and registration they're they're

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Speaker 3: they're doing this deliberately to avoid the national sovereign interests

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Speaker 3: of others involved, so sanctions and otherwise. And so basically

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Speaker 3: we've known that Russia, China, Iran have collaborated to bust

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Speaker 3: sanctions on any of them at any given time. And

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Speaker 3: these fleets become relevant because they're moving this oil, which

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Speaker 3: is a fungible resource fancy way of saying value in

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Speaker 3: that in your left pocket affects the value in your

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Speaker 3: right pocket too, And so it's really been heart and

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Speaker 3: front center in terms of trying to get at real

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Speaker 3: pressure on these hostile i think, non status quo regimes

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Speaker 3: around the world world, and so they might be moving

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Speaker 3: the fuel from Venezuela to somewhere else. But they're going

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Speaker 3: to have an impact on everything from hamas and terrorist

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Speaker 3: organizations that are linked to Iran and others, and they'll

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Speaker 3: have impacts in other areas too. But basically you're right,

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Speaker 3: it's commercial vessels primarily operating in a gray zone. And

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Speaker 3: this is one of the founding reasons we have a

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Speaker 3: United States Navy is to deal with piracy.

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Speaker 1: So we see that how China is connected to Venezuela

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Speaker 1: regarding oil. And certainly your point about the regime is

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Speaker 1: taken that something I may want.

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Speaker 2: To move faster might not be able to move faster.

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Speaker 1: It's that sometimes if you listen to President Trump, he

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Speaker 1: hints that maybe there could be some acceptability to the

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Speaker 1: status quo, and I temper that with my own words,

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Speaker 1: saying that what President Trump says versus what he does

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Speaker 1: are oft times two different things. Calling Delsa Rodriguez a

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Speaker 1: fine person or a terrific person, as he did the

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Speaker 1: other day from the oval, doesn't mean that she's going

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Speaker 1: to have a long career.

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Speaker 2: The what's the best way to say this?

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Speaker 1: What was the message sent to the rest of the

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Speaker 1: Western hemisphere, Really South America. What was the message sent

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Speaker 1: to the globe regarding the taking of Maduro.

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Speaker 3: I think there were few that definitely come front and center.

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Speaker 3: One is, at least to the countries that are essentially

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Speaker 3: run by cartels. This is a country that had a

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Speaker 3: cartel boss running it, and it proved that if you

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Speaker 3: have indictments related to injury suffered by the American people

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Speaker 3: in our own national interests, that your time is on

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Speaker 3: the clock. And the United States has proven willing and

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Speaker 3: able to act decisively. And there's nothing that the Russian, Chinese,

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Speaker 3: and Iranian arms are going to be able to do

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Speaker 3: to help you, and certainly Huban security forces are not

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Speaker 3: going to be able to help you. And so I

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Speaker 3: think there's at least some shade thrown in the direction

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Speaker 3: of Columbia, Mexico and a few others that you're going

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Speaker 3: to have to take seriously that the United States is

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Speaker 3: going to operate against these cartels at some point, and

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Speaker 3: you might want to take seriously the idea of engaging

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Speaker 3: in negotiations with the Trump administration of some kind of

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Speaker 3: a deal before the deal is made for you. When

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Speaker 3: you end up in New York going through O Maduro's

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Speaker 3: going through and so there's at least that message. I

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Speaker 3: think that the combination of the bombing of Iranian nuclear

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Speaker 3: facilities completely undetected from this side of the world of

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Speaker 3: that side of the world, gave a pretty dramatic demonstration

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Speaker 3: effect too. And you put that sort of the stealth

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Speaker 3: activity in Iran, the Special Forces rapid immediate activity with Venezuela,

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Speaker 3: it just sends to the broader world the United States

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Speaker 3: is going to allow these outside actors to act with

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Speaker 3: impunity in our hemisphere, and we do still have some power.

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Speaker 3: We can't be huguistic about it. We're not going to

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Speaker 3: be in the invade occupy in nation build phase. But

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Speaker 3: you better take American power and interest seriously, or at

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Speaker 3: least under this current president will act from time to.

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Speaker 2: Time that American power, that American interest.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Steve Vight to the Heritage Foundation, we're research

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Speaker 1: fellow for China and National Security Policy. We've heard this

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Speaker 1: as a discussion of a remake, a rebirth, a rethink

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Speaker 1: of the Monroe doctrine, which was President James Monroe and

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Speaker 1: trying to thwart European influence in the Western hemisphere.

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Speaker 2: Whether you call it the Trump doctrine.

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Speaker 1: Now or, as he's joked about it, the donro A doctrine.

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Speaker 1: Now we're talking about Chinese and Russian influence, which is

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Speaker 1: still Chinese influence. If we think that Russia's closer and

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Speaker 1: closer to becoming a vassal state of China in the

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Speaker 1: region and in the western hemisphere here, how does that

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Speaker 1: get applied outside of the removal of Maduro? Does this

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Speaker 1: mean that the leader of Columbia is next? Is this

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Speaker 1: a we're going to force the Russian subs to get

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Speaker 1: off the coast of Cuba. No, you can't drill China.

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Speaker 1: I don't care what some other nation gave you rights

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Speaker 1: to do. The answer is no. How does this progress?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you what my hope is, what my

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Speaker 3: assumption is about where the next steps might be. I

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Speaker 3: think the administration very correctly as a reaction and a

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Speaker 3: pendulum swing back in the direction of we need to

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Speaker 3: use the resources that the creator endowed us with for

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Speaker 3: the benefit of our people, our economy, together with our

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Speaker 3: allies and neighbors, if they are willing to play along

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Speaker 3: by the right rules of the road. And so, if

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Speaker 3: you think of this, there's been a rightful focus on oil.

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Speaker 3: Oil is kind of still front and send. No matter

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Speaker 3: what the Green New Deal or Green New scam dreams

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Speaker 3: might have been, oil still matters an awful lot. But

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Speaker 3: there's also rare earths and other kinds of critical inputs.

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Speaker 3: We need supply chains that are closer to our market

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Speaker 3: that are not going to be leveraged buy our adversaries

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Speaker 3: against us in a time of crisis. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: of raw materials to work with in this hemisphere. So

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Speaker 3: I look all the way from Argentina up to the

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Speaker 3: discussion of Greenland as being aimed at two things, keeping

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Speaker 3: the outside competitors and adversaries out as much as possible,

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Speaker 3: and opening that up to the United States and allies

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Speaker 3: to have a cleaner ecosystem that runs our economies free

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Speaker 3: from this malign leverage. I think that it's also sort

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Speaker 3: of been mistakenly framed as putting this our country in

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Speaker 3: this hemisphere first, to the exclusion of projection of power

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Speaker 3: and opportunity in other areas. I'd argue that these adversaries

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Speaker 3: haven't really respected us and our projection of power if

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Speaker 3: we left our country and our borders vulnerable to severe

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Speaker 3: attack in our own hemisphere for their kind of playing

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Speaker 3: around with impunity, and so buttoning these things down doesn't

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Speaker 3: preclude rebalancing and projection of opportunity and power in these

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Speaker 3: other theaters. I think it actually enhances our options into

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Speaker 3: our allies, makes us a more trustworthy and resilient partner.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into the conversation of Iran, which is

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Speaker 1: the part too.

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Speaker 2: Here. You brought up Greenland.

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Speaker 1: No, I don't think we're taking Greenland by military force.

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Speaker 1: I would oppose it on every single level. I think

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Speaker 1: as a concept it's ridiculous. I think the overreaction is massive,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's purposeful from understanding Trump and how

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Speaker 1: he likes to do things to try and get people

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Speaker 1: to the table.

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Speaker 2: We need Greenland that badly.

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Speaker 3: Well, we definitely need to keep Russia and China out,

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Speaker 3: and we need to keep them out before they have

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Speaker 3: more of a toe hold, and so I support any

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Speaker 3: kind of preempt Shaka and Awe to get at that.

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Speaker 3: I think the way the President has approached it has

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Speaker 3: exposed the fecklessness of Europe, especially Denmark. It's incredibly stupid

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Speaker 3: really for them to say somehow it's offensive for America

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Speaker 3: to say that they would take it. They freaking took

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Speaker 3: it and so this is kind of just stupidity on

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Speaker 3: steroids on their part. And then you're going to rally

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Speaker 3: what military to do what, So you're going to talk

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Speaker 3: about threatening the United States while you can't really reasonably

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Speaker 3: threaten Russia on your own to defend Ukraine. So this

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Speaker 3: is exposing hypocrisy, weakness on seriousness on many many levels.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's part of the process, and we

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Speaker 3: don't need to take it militarily. We can isolate where

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Speaker 3: the populated areas on Greenland are and completely control the

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Speaker 3: entire rest of that island and have access to what

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Speaker 3: we need to keep the Chinese Russians out, and that's

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Speaker 3: probably where this is going. So there's the Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: way of saying, or you know, the Godfather way of saying,

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Speaker 3: we could do this the easy way or the hard way.

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Speaker 3: But I agree with you that ultimately this isn't about

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Speaker 3: Team America going in and doing a Venezuela and Greenland,

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Speaker 3: and I think this is really all about negotiations. But

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Speaker 3: ultimately it comes down to they're on the North American shelf,

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Speaker 3: They're not part of Europe economically in the terms of security,

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Speaker 3: that's where their future is and needs to be.

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Speaker 1: I've got more with Steve Yates of the Heritage Foundation

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Speaker 1: coming up. Find everything at Tony Katz dot com and

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Speaker 1: don't forget to check out the video of this interview.

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Speaker 1: Just look for my YouTube channel, Tony Katz. Subscribe do that.

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Speaker 1: This is Tony Katz Today, continuing my conversation with Steve

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Speaker 1: Yates from the Heritage Foundation.

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Speaker 2: Tony Katz.

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz Today, Steve Yates from Heritage where he focuses

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Speaker 1: on national security policy and China policy. We've discussed Venezuela

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Speaker 1: and we discussed Greenland as it through in there, and

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Speaker 1: I was connecting what's happening in Venezuela to what's happening

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Speaker 1: regarding Iran and how these things affect China. Iran is

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Speaker 1: a story of I think this all goes back to

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Speaker 1: how Israel responded to October seventh, where Israel did not

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Speaker 1: do what the world expected, which was throw some bombs

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Speaker 1: and then okay, we'll back off because you're all so angry.

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Speaker 1: They miscalculated how the Israelis would feel. The Israeli said, no,

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Speaker 1: we're done here. We had enough of this. The population

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Speaker 1: changed in a moment. They went to bed one way

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Speaker 1: on October seventh, and they woke up differently on October eighth,

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Speaker 1: and it hasn't changed in going on on three years.

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Speaker 1: So Iran then had to deal with the consequence of

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Speaker 1: the US wanting to get involved in taking out the

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Speaker 1: nuclear facilities at Foordah Isfahan and the tons. And then

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Speaker 1: you saw that the people saw this who have no

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Speaker 1: interest in the Ayatola and an Islamic regime.

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Speaker 2: It's not how they see themselves at all. They would

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Speaker 2: see them. They certainly see them as Persians.

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Speaker 1: They would see themselves more as Europeans than they were

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Speaker 1: would anything else. And they've decided that this is an

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Speaker 1: opportunity to take like they tried to take in twenty

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Speaker 1: twelve with the Arab Spring Green Revolution, et cetera.

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Speaker 2: This one seems to have more legs.

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Speaker 1: President Trump has said help, it's on its way, the

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Speaker 1: USS Abraham Link and aircraft carriers making its way to

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Speaker 1: the Middle East. Right now, walk me through where we

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Speaker 1: have gone regarding what has taken place since October seventh

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Speaker 1: and the drone attacks and missile atacks. Iran has dealt with,

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Speaker 1: the attacks Israel has put on them. Does it lead

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Speaker 1: us to a moment that we're at now? That President

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Speaker 1: Trump and the administration could see and end to the

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Speaker 1: Iotola means a possible peace in the Middle East, and

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Speaker 1: that's everything he's ever wanted.

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Speaker 3: So you're right, Tony to look at this arc and

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Speaker 3: there's a lot that can be said about it, and

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Speaker 3: I'll do an imperfect job, but I you know, I

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Speaker 3: think so did I a lot there to work with

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Speaker 3: the I think to me one of the real inflection points,

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Speaker 3: outside of just the population of Israel was that the Israelis,

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Speaker 3: but everyone around the world saw these flash mobs instantly

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Speaker 3: out in the streets and saw basically a Neo Maoist

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Speaker 3: Marxist network that were doing violent and crazy things all

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Speaker 3: over the world. And so it made it very very

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Speaker 3: clear that the old way of talking about Israel Palestine

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Speaker 3: or whatever kind of peace deals and the debates about

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Speaker 3: settlement and all that kind of thing that had defined

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Speaker 3: the past, this is what we're talking about anymore. This

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Speaker 3: is an international movement that is at odds, not just

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Speaker 3: with Israel. All of these same people are the rental

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Speaker 3: mobs that are protesting against ice will call Trump hitler

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Speaker 3: and whatever worse there could possibly be, and they're destroying

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Speaker 3: what used to be known as London and the country

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Speaker 3: of France. And so there's something that came out of

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Speaker 3: the genies bottle after October seventh that has taken a

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Speaker 3: while to settle in. But I think that sort of

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Speaker 3: feeds into why people are looking at Iran differently in

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Speaker 3: this case. And so we also saw that America was

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Speaker 3: able to take action that we didn't, at least in

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Speaker 3: that near time frame afterwards, have devastating or expanded risk.

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Speaker 3: This was not the ghost of Iraq. A lot of

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Speaker 3: some of our fellow center right pundits were saying this

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Speaker 3: is going to lead to World War III. It has not,

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Speaker 3: and so we're dealing with a different set of facts.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't surprise me that Israel sees no going back

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Speaker 3: October seventh. I just can't imagine how people have been

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Speaker 3: able to either forget or minimize the shock of that

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Speaker 3: kind of activity. But clearly the population of Israel, not

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Speaker 3: just the hardcore, not just the supporters of President Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister net Yahoo, the broader population sees this. And the

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Speaker 3: attack on Jews everywhere around the world that was linked

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Speaker 3: directly to that certainly made it bigger than Israeli politics,

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Speaker 3: and this bigger than the security of the state of Israel.

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Speaker 3: So we have the nuclear program that has been dealt

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Speaker 3: with somewhat, but that's an ongoing exercise. I think now

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Speaker 3: with the oil markets pressure there is I think maybe

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Speaker 3: some hope that broader sanctions can't be busted as easily.

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Speaker 3: The ghost feats fleets being dealt with by our armada

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Speaker 3: means the sanctions can't be busted as easily. Some of

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Speaker 3: our sort of comprehensive pressure tactics can be more comprehensive now,

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Speaker 3: and so threat of a military strike, greater economic pressure

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Speaker 3: peeling off, Russia being distracted with a grinding war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 3: China having to watch out for its oil supplies and

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Speaker 3: some other equities. You now have the theocratic regime having

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Speaker 3: a stand on its own, and I don't think the

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Speaker 3: point you've made can be made too much. The Persian

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Speaker 3: people are not first and foremost theocratic. This forty plus

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Speaker 3: year cancer was imposed upon them and it's frustrating. I

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Speaker 3: can't wait for the regime to go, and I have

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Speaker 3: to have even you know, I can be more patient

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Speaker 3: about it than I think the Iranian people want to

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Speaker 3: be on that, But I do think that the administration

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Speaker 3: somewhat like we were talking about with Venezuela, is trying

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Speaker 3: to figure out how do we roll this forward without

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Speaker 3: things vibrating out of control and with their on there's

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Speaker 3: more variables than there were with Venezuela.

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Speaker 1: That's where we are when you talk about the variables

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Speaker 1: talking to Steve Yates the Heritage Foundation, what are they?

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Speaker 1: What is it that the general populace isn't considering or

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Speaker 1: isn't aware of because we don't study these things every

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Speaker 1: day that you think we should be well.

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Speaker 3: Some of them. I think people, if they take a moment,

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Speaker 3: will know instinctively, and we've seen it in the past.

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Speaker 3: Iran has more military capability than Venezuela does, and so

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Speaker 3: they could choose to launch a number of things in

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Speaker 3: a number of different directions. If they chose to strike

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Speaker 3: a military base or two in the broader Middle East,

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Speaker 3: that can't happen without actually opening a wider war with

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Speaker 3: that host nation as well. But we don't, i think,

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Speaker 3: have unanimity across those allies about what their risk tolerance

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Speaker 3: is and whether and how they would want us or

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Speaker 3: themselves to respond. There's also navigating the same question as Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: If you take out a regime where you go. We

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Speaker 3: are against at this point of reviewing what happened in Iraq.

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Speaker 3: We're against sort of looking at debathification and sending a

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Speaker 3: bunch of academics to stand up in departments of government

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Speaker 3: and rewrite a constitution and to preside over an election ourselves.

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Speaker 3: Presumably there are allies in the region that are better

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Speaker 3: positioned to be able to navigate some of that political

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Speaker 3: way forward, and they would have assets to deal with that.

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Speaker 3: It can include exiles who come back to different other movements,

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Speaker 3: but there's a lot that has to get sorted, and

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Speaker 3: I don't think it's been sorted yet, and that might

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Speaker 3: lead to some hesitation on the part of President Trump,

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Speaker 3: maybe even some hesitation on the part of the government

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Speaker 3: of Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE and others that would have

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Speaker 3: shared equities in this way forward. But the model and

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Speaker 3: infrastructure is there with the Abraham Accords. That is the

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Speaker 3: future of having that coalition economically, merit militarily, trying to

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Speaker 3: contain them, align influences and chart this alternative path to

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Speaker 3: peace and prosperity.

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Speaker 1: That's the model, and I would assume that with that,

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Speaker 1: with an Iran that was a signator of the Abraham Accords.

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Speaker 1: It also would limit the opportunities and ideas of Erdowan

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Speaker 1: in Turkey. It keeps that further separation between the Turks

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Speaker 1: and maybe the Saudis, as they would both be fighting

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Speaker 1: to be the hegemonic power in the area. Talking to

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Speaker 1: Steve Yates of the Heritage Foundation, all of this I

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Speaker 1: connect to China in these places where these two places

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Speaker 1: Iran in Venezuela, where China gets oil, where China has

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Speaker 1: been trying to build influence, where China utilizes these relationships

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Speaker 1: to build disruptions for the United States, which is of

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Speaker 1: course the goal and the desire, because their desire is

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Speaker 1: to be the superpower of the globe.

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Speaker 2: It is about their domination. Now, this brings about a

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Speaker 2: lot of questions. One of the.

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Speaker 1: Most recently is about the population bomb, the idea of

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Speaker 1: whether or not China is the superpower. We think they

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Speaker 1: are one point four billion people, but you take a

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Speaker 1: look at birth rates, take a look at death rates,

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Speaker 1: take a look at one child policy.

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Speaker 2: Is this even possible?

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Speaker 1: This population was supposed to drop from one point four

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Speaker 1: billion to five six hundred million in the course of

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Speaker 1: one hundred years.

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Speaker 2: Some argue, we're already there.

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Speaker 1: How is China dealing with the moves in Venezuela that

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Speaker 1: have an effect on them economically, the moves in around

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Speaker 1: that have an effect on them economically. How do we

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Speaker 1: see the Chinese navigating this? And where is the pressure

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Speaker 1: point for the United States and for Western aligned nations

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Speaker 1: to further China's degradation.

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Speaker 3: Well, there are several pressure points that have been evolving,

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Speaker 3: I think in very interesting and probably positive ways for

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Speaker 3: our interests from twenty twenty five spilling into twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 3: One could say that China is engaged in this kind

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Speaker 3: of activity in order to distract, degrade, or tie down

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Speaker 3: America in other parts of the world so that China

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Speaker 3: can act with greater impunity in its own part of

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Speaker 3: the world. And I think there's something to that thought process.

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Speaker 3: Another is they're gaining out if there was some kind

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Speaker 3: of a conflict. They've watched Russia in day Ukraine for

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Speaker 3: an additional time and the world, the so called free world,

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Speaker 3: thumped its chest about imposing different kinds of sanctions, and

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Speaker 3: they are studying every detail about how has Russia weathered

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Speaker 3: those sanctions so that if China were to act against Taiwan,

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Speaker 3: the Philippines, Japan, anyone that would China be similarly disposed

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Speaker 3: to be able to weather sanctions, blockades, changes in trade patterns,

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Speaker 3: whatever those things might be. And so they learned by

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Speaker 3: what mucking around in these other areas. But the other

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Speaker 3: is that the Chinese Communist Party, at its origin and

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Speaker 3: through its life cycle is all about political warfare first,

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Speaker 3: and comprehensive warfare on top of that. What that means

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00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 3: is they don't really segregate sort of the organized military

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00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 3: as operating in its own under the separate kind of rules.

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Speaker 3: They will use civilian fishing vessels for military or national

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Speaker 3: security or economic security means as they see fit. They

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Speaker 3: will use students they send into universities, or professors they

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Speaker 3: send into universities in ways that they see fit. Everything

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00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: to them is dual use. And the first reason for

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00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 3: being in all of this for them is to serve

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00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 3: the party, to keep it in power, and to inflect

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00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 3: pain or confusion on others that get in the way

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00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 3: of the party. And they've done that in all these theaters.

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00:26:54,720 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 3: So resetting in these other theaters limits their ability to

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Speaker 3: tie us down and be better a position to be

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Speaker 3: able to focus on what they want to do in

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Speaker 3: perhaps East Asia. It gives them areas to be able

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Speaker 3: to rely upon to survive sanctions or a time of crisis,

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Speaker 3: like I was saying with the Straits of Malaca. If

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00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 3: they have other pathways to energy, they can be more

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00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 3: resilient in a time of crisis in theory, but they

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00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,960
Speaker 3: remain vulnerable on energy. They remain vulnerable in needing access

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00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 3: to our consumer market. They are an export led economy.

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00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 3: They cannot survive as an economy without sustaining that access.

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Speaker 3: And frankly, well, I don't think that that President Trump's

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Speaker 3: toolkit has been perfect. It is far improved over the

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00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: toolkit that previous presidents were willing to even use. I

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Speaker 3: think at this point China has to be careful. They

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00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 3: see a revitalized Japan acting more independently. That matters. People

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00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: can try to minimize Japan, and it's a major economy

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00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 3: and has significant capabilities, and it plays a vital role

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00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 3: in that first island chain in Asia, but it also

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00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 3: echoes into Europe and other areas because no one sees

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Speaker 3: Japan as a threat or any stabilizers. So whatever they

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00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 3: want to demonize Trump about, you can't paint Japan with

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00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 3: that same brush, and so it helps balance some of

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00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 3: these areas of opportunity and we'll see how it all

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00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 3: shakes out. But that's a little bit of a I

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00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: think dog's breakfast and putting up onto the table of

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Speaker 3: all the many ways that we're tackling the China challenge,

477
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 3: but it definitely is involved in all of the areas

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00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 3: that you've.

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Speaker 1: Outlined, and certainly the mention of Takaichi, the new Prime

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00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: Minister of Japan is she has not shown herself to

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Speaker 1: be any type of wilting flower. There is the Japanese

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Speaker 1: people see. I think what a lot people see. There's

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00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: an opportunity here to reset the stage. And that's so

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Speaker 1: much of what we're looking at and how I believe,

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00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: you know, as we've been discussing all these things, connect

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00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 1: Venezuela and Iran reset the stage with China and China's

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00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: abilities and ambitions. And I appreciate hearing that I'm not

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00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: off base with my theory.

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Speaker 3: We are together.

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00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: Steve Yates you can catch him at the Heritage of

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00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: Foundation and his work on national security and China policy.

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00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: He also hosts the China Desk podcast over at the

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00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: Federal Newswire.

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00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: Federal was a federalnewswire dot com.

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00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: Is that where I got the Federalnewswire dot com?

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00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: The Federal Newswire dot com. I figured it out all by.

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Speaker 1: Myself, Steve. I appreciate you being here more to get

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00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 1: to I'm Tony Katz