1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: So the GDP numbers are like through the roof, They're insane. 2 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: They don't even make sense. 3 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:09,440 Speaker 2: Can a country really grow like ours our economic output 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:10,480 Speaker 2: and four point four percent? 5 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: When another country says. 6 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 2: Four point four percent, you could say, hey, that's good, 7 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: but they're not doing the kind of volume when we do. 8 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: So when we've got four point four it's massive. 9 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 2: And now you've got predictions of over five percent that 10 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: are going to be coming. 11 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: And then you see the inflation index that the FED likes. 12 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 2: To use, and you're like, well, wait a second, does 13 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:33,599 Speaker 2: this mean that inflation is up? Well, maybe it is 14 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 2: because silver has now cossed one hundred dollars an ounce 15 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 2: and gold will be at five thousand an ounce. What 16 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 2: exactly is happening in our economics? Exactly where are we at? 17 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: Doctor Mattwill joined us right now? Did I say hello, 18 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 2: Tony Katz Tony Kats? Today I should say hello and 19 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 2: name the show. I'm just very excited. Doctor mattwill is 20 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,080 Speaker 2: an economist at the University of Indianapolis. 21 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: This is out of control. 22 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:04,240 Speaker 2: The numbers are an absolute conflict, seemingly to me with 23 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 2: one another. But let's start with this GDP number. Now 24 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 2: I know you're in transit right now. Did the numbers 25 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 2: get revised up or is the GDP was the four 26 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 2: point four the number? Is that the correct number for 27 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 2: the third quarter of twenty twenty five. 28 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 3: There were revisions up and multiple kinds of revisions. One 29 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 3: revision up was the actual GDP, So that was a 30 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 3: revision up from the previous number. I believe it was 31 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 3: maybe three point eight, and then it was revised at 32 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: four point two. Now it's four point four or four 33 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 3: point eight. I mean, it's just going up. And the 34 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 3: other revision, which was more shocking, is that the Atlanta Fed, 35 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 3: which projects GDP, is now projecting about a five to 36 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 3: five point four percent GDP in the next report. Revisions 37 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 3: are off the charts. And your description of this size 38 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 3: of economy growing like that, that's that's pretty impressive. And 39 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 3: I could get into the why it's projected to grow if. 40 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: You'd like, Well, yeah, I absolutely want to get into it. 41 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,559 Speaker 2: But before we get there, this flies in the face 42 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: of the tariff conversation, and you keep saying, no, it 43 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: actually doesn't. It's just that the tariffs are limiting Trump's 44 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 2: opportunities to grow even more. But I thought the tariffs 45 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: were going to limit levels of creation and production. But 46 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 2: are we producing more or does it just feel that 47 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: way because we're paying the tariffs. 48 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 3: No, it's you said it at the beginning. Very well, 49 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: there's this conflicting data. And I've said it before. The 50 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 3: Trump is it's like Trump versus Trump. Okay, the good 51 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 3: parts of this, the consumer spending is through the roof. Okay, 52 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 3: investment in AI is through the roof. Government spending, unfortunately, 53 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 3: is through the roof. Those are the things that drove 54 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 3: the revision. And now to the tariff issue. The tariff 55 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 3: caused the GDP to go up. But this is a 56 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 3: flaw of Canesy and economics, and we've talked about it before. 57 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 3: It's a nerd topic. Candy and Economics says that when 58 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 3: you have net exports that increases GDP, that's just the formula. 59 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 3: The formula is flawed, but it decreases long term consumer goods, 60 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 3: harms long term manufacturing in your country. We see the manufacturing, 61 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 3: the manufacturing in the US continues to decline. It did 62 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 3: again last month. So it is Trump versus Trump. And yes, 63 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:29,799 Speaker 3: the GDP number, exports is an anomaly that's causing the 64 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 3: number to go up. But the rest of it's good. 65 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 3: The rest of it's through the roof the consumer spending, 66 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: the government spending, not good investment in AI fantastic. So 67 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 3: those are all good things that are causing the GDP 68 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: to go up. 69 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis, 70 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 2: what I have been saying is I think this is 71 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: great news for Trump. This is great news going into 72 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 2: a midterm, but only if gas prices continue to go down, 73 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: beef prices go down, and I can afford to take 74 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: my family out to dinner. These are the things that 75 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 2: Midwest main Street needs to look at or are looking at. 76 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 2: And these are not the things so much at the 77 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: Trump administration is connecting with, although Besent is getting much 78 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: better at talking about here's what we've done for you, 79 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 2: Here's what we're doing for you. 80 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: Here's what the one big beautiful bill is gonna do. 81 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 2: Here's what you're gonna be seeing, gonna see coming down 82 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:20,160 Speaker 2: the pike. 83 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: Here's what's going to be happening. 84 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:23,799 Speaker 2: Although I don't know how many people get super excited 85 00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 2: about getting their tax return and they're just paying too 86 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: much in taxes as it is, is, does the GDP 87 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: growth lead to Americans on Midwest Main Street seeing those 88 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 2: three things that I mentioned. 89 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 3: Not necessarily, and there's two reasons for it. One is 90 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 3: this export anomaly, this flaw in the GDP formula is 91 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: going to snap back. These net exports will snap back 92 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 3: at the end of this year because it's an anomaly 93 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 3: because of his tariffs, and unless he keeps increasing the 94 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 3: tear I mean, which he could do, but it has 95 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 3: all these deals, so the tariffs are now locked in. 96 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 3: That means there will be a snapback and there will 97 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 3: be fewer exports towards the end of the year. So 98 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 3: that's going to hurt him come the elections. The other 99 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 3: thing is to answer your question directly, go to the 100 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 3: PCEE the inflation. The inflation was half a percent, that 101 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 3: is six percent for the year. If it's half a 102 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,479 Speaker 3: percent for the month, this inflation is not gone. The 103 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 3: Democrats are running on affordability and they have an issue 104 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 3: to run on, even though it's not all Trump's fault, 105 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 3: They've got an issue to run on. 106 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis, 107 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: and yes, it shows that this was the reporting from 108 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 2: CNBC that the main gage that they use at the FED, 109 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 2: the Personal Consumption expendits just Price Index showed inflation at 110 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 2: two point eight percent in November. But you just said 111 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: zero point five, which will give you six percent. 112 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: For the year. Where do you get that number from? 113 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,240 Speaker 3: Because that was the monthly number they're looking at last year. 114 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 3: Over this, that's a year long data. I don't care 115 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 3: what happened to last year. I don't care what happened 116 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 3: eleven or ten months ago. I want to know the 117 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 3: inflation in the last thirty days. And in the last 118 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 3: thirty days the inflation was half of one percent. It 119 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 3: doesn't take a genius to multiply that and get six. 120 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 3: That scares me. Inflation is legitimate. And how do we know? 121 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 3: I'm not the only person thinking this because silver went 122 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:28,159 Speaker 3: through the roof the safe haven for inflation skyrocketed as 123 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,359 Speaker 3: a result of this inflation report. You know what, I 124 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 3: think you were right earlier when you said gold's going 125 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: higher too. 126 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: Oh, gold's going higher. 127 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 2: There's no doubt. By the way, I do not invest 128 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 2: in gold nor silver. Maybe I am part of a 129 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: fund that does. Do not take your financial advice from me. 130 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 2: You can take up with doctor will, but do not 131 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 2: take it from me. I don't want to be responsible 132 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 2: for that. What I do want to say is that 133 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 2: the interesting part is that there's wins and losses in 134 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: this for Trump. 135 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:58,280 Speaker 1: There's wins and. 136 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: Losses in this for the Demo. Which is weird that 137 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 2: the Democrats are betting. 138 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:03,840 Speaker 1: Against the economy as. 139 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 2: Opposed to what Republicans did in the twenty twenty four campaign, 140 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 2: which is noticed the economy and say things can be better. 141 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: So do you advise that the White House continues to 142 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 2: go down this road? That's gott Best at the Treasury 143 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: Secretary continues to go down this road by saying everything's great, 144 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: look at the GDP, look at the growth, while not 145 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 2: noticing the harms happening on the inflation side on the 146 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: other side, or is there a move here that makes 147 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 2: us explode for Midwest Main Street and people can afford 148 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 2: to take their families out to dinner? 149 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 3: Again, Best and is wrong. He's got to explain to 150 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: the American public what's going on here, and they're ignoring 151 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 3: the inflation issue. And you see the inflation issue when 152 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: you go out to dinner, when you try to buy 153 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 3: your kids, you know, a baseball bat, when you try 154 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 3: to do things for your family and you can't do it. 155 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: They can't ignore it because you and I and every 156 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 3: person listening to this show sees it when we walk 157 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: out the door every day. And to ignore it is 158 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 3: to make the same crime that the Democrats made in 159 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 3: the last election. They try to ignore the bad news. 160 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: Best of wants to ignore the bad news because this 161 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 3: boss is afraid his boss cannot handle bad news. 162 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 1: But Trump goes to. 163 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 2: Davos and he's saying, hey, we've got one hundred We've 164 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 2: got eighteen trillion dollars worth of investment. We're tariffing this, 165 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 2: that and the other. We're gonna we will put on 166 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 2: tarifs because of Greenland. We won't put on towers because 167 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 2: of Greenland. Right, he uses it in the tool that 168 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 2: in that way. But he sees the investment because of 169 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 2: the tarifts that went on, and he says, look at 170 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 2: the success. 171 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: Again. 172 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: This is a conversation of when does that investment show 173 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 2: up from Midwest Main Street? And the answer cannot be 174 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: it never shows up from Midwest main Street. Somehow, some way, 175 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: during from some timeline, the money has to trickle down. 176 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 2: So exactly what is it that we should be looking 177 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 2: for or is there still a different lever that the 178 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 2: White House has to administer that will then get the 179 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 2: dollars to the rest of us. 180 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 3: That ship does not turn very fast. We see it 181 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: in the GDP revisions. Massive investment. It's already happening. You know, 182 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 3: you asked the question where we'll we see it. We 183 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 3: see it. We see it in the GDP number, we 184 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 3: see it in the investment that's happening in corporations at 185 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 3: this moment. It's gigantic. That's why the GDP is up. 186 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 3: I said it again. Trump is his own worst enemy. 187 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 3: He's talking about the great things he's doing, but he's 188 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 3: missing the fact that long term there will be benefit. 189 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,720 Speaker 3: But it's not here yet. You can't build an AI 190 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 3: data center, You can't build out your company's AI use 191 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 3: and expect the jobs to appear overnight. There's a lag 192 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 3: It may be a year or two. We're in transition. 193 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 3: We've talked about it before. We're transitioning like from horse 194 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 3: and buggies to cars. Now we're transitioning from computers to AI. 195 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 3: It's going to take some time, and we're not going 196 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 3: to see the benefit immediately. We have to be patient, 197 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 3: and Trump doesn't want to hear that. Between now and 198 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 3: then there's gonna be some pain. He doesn't want to 199 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 3: hear it, and everyone's afraid to tell him. 200 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 2: Well, I think he's hearing it, and what will I will? 201 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 2: I get your point. But I don't think that's actually 202 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 2: the real case with Trump. It's that he isn't afraid 203 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 2: to hear it. It's that he believes what he believes. 204 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: And I think that that there it lies the rub 205 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 2: in which you the economist look at these numbers and say, 206 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 2: these things have issues, and he's getting his own way, 207 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: and he looks at these things and says, this is 208 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 2: all part of the much larger plan. If you stick 209 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 2: with me, we're going to get there. Now, we could 210 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 2: be asking a question politically, where. 211 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 1: Does the voter go? 212 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 2: But let's get back to where the markets go. They 213 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 2: must be They understand that the AI investment is driving 214 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 2: all things. They clearly understand that there's still an inflation 215 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: that is there. 216 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: Yet this market. 217 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 2: Keeps going up and keeps going up, and it does stop, 218 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 2: and it doesn't rest and it doesn't quit. And even 219 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 2: when you were hugely down at the beginning of the week, 220 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 2: you came back up. Maybe you're gonna be down today. 221 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 2: You know midday, you know, the Dow was down, but 222 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 2: the NAZAC was up. How does the market view these things? 223 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 3: The market views it as a net good. The market 224 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 3: us it is exactly how I described it to you. 225 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 3: This is this is the world I live in. In an 226 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 3: applied economics. They see the good policies, they see the 227 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 3: bad policies. The inflation is here, so silver goes up, 228 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 3: and gold goes up, but the investment in AI is 229 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 3: through the roof, so the GDP goes up. The market's 230 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 3: up because it's the net good. There's good and there's bad, 231 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 3: but it's a net good. 232 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 1: You know what. 233 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,319 Speaker 3: Alarms me or shocks me. If Trump could get out 234 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 3: of his own way, it would be even better. The 235 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 3: net good would be even more than what we're seeing 236 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 3: right now, if he could just get out of his way. 237 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 2: But you cannot learn just for the definition. You say, 238 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 2: get rid of the town says that getting out of 239 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 2: his way. 240 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 3: Yes, yes, the tariffs are the thing that's preventing him 241 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 3: from having an even better economy. But you can't deny it. 242 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 3: You and I cannot deny it. The net good is 243 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 3: right in front of our face. But he's got to 244 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 3: be careful. This inflation nothing. Milton Friedman said it many times. 245 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 3: Inflation is a single worst threat to the economy, and 246 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 3: it's there, and he's got to be careful. 247 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 2: And Trump's math is very clearly the tariff is allowed 248 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 2: for the investments and any short term wobble will be 249 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 2: offset by the massive gains of investments and the trillions 250 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 2: into the American future. 251 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 1: That's what he's saying. That's the methodology, correct. 252 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,520 Speaker 3: That's exactly what he's thinking. But it doesn't talk to 253 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 3: the wallet of the person on mainstream who's trying to 254 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 3: go out to dinner. Inflation is here, and people's wages 255 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 3: aren't growing, but they're not growing enough, and we're seeing 256 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 3: the slow down and hiring, and we're going to have 257 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 3: a transition in the employment base to an AI based economy, 258 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 3: which isn't happening overnight. He's missing it. He's missing the 259 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,760 Speaker 3: impact on the average person. And guess what the average 260 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:08,679 Speaker 3: person votes. 261 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 2: So and so again, he understands the impact of the 262 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 2: average person, but he's willing to wait it out over 263 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 2: a longer. 264 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: Period of time. 265 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 2: What it's going to happen is the person who votes 266 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 2: isn't gonna see it for a midterm and that's where 267 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 2: he needs some basic things to turn around in order 268 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 2: to get him there to see that it's coming. 269 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: It cann't happen in the next six months. 270 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 2: That's the question, Doctor Matt Will, economist at the University 271 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 2: of Indianapolis. I appreciate you being with us more to 272 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 2: get to I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today.