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Speaker 1: Live from vall Hartbeiner and the Crossroads of America. It's

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 2: I do think there is a lot to take from

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Speaker 2: Trump's speech on Wednesday night, although I don't think it

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Speaker 2: said anything new. But I don't think it said anything

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Speaker 2: new for those of us who've been paying attention, maybe

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Speaker 2: if you only get your news through these guarded filters

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Speaker 2: of CNN and MS now in the New York Times,

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Speaker 2: you didn't know that things were going well, that we

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Speaker 2: were taking out so many Iranian assets, that we were

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Speaker 2: incredibly effective in ruining their navy.

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Speaker 1: If you listen to.

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Speaker 2: The political left or the woke right, it's a disaster.

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Speaker 2: We're losing, we have to get out, will never win.

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Speaker 2: But the President did get into one or two things,

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Speaker 2: an admission of regime change and leaving the open question

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Speaker 2: of well, if you expect other nations to take the

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Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz, what hey, are you willing to endure

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Speaker 2: for us as Americans while they get the oil free flowing.

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Speaker 2: Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, guys, good to be here,

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Speaker 2: Good to be with you. Steve Yates joins me right now,

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Speaker 2: Seenior Research fellow for China and National security Policy at

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Speaker 2: the Heritage Foundation Heritage dot org. Let's walk through this

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Speaker 2: speech now that we've had a couple of days to digest.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of.

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Speaker 2: People have already talked about it, but I think that

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Speaker 2: there's still there's a moment I think that was missed,

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Speaker 2: and then I think that people are somewhat missing a moment.

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Speaker 2: So let's start with you the twenty plus minutes the

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Speaker 2: President spoke on Wednesday night. What did you take from it?

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Speaker 2: What did you think America took from it?

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Speaker 3: Well, Tony, I very much agree with your intro in

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Speaker 3: that for those of us that have followed this every

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Speaker 3: single day of the entire operation, there.

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Speaker 4: Wasn't a lot of new ground broken in the remarks.

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Speaker 4: There were a little bit of the.

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Speaker 3: Crackpot gallery saying what he was going to say, and

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Speaker 3: he didn't say those things. When I'm alluding to is

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Speaker 3: there are all kinds of people who said they had

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Speaker 3: inside scoop and he was going to take sort of

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Speaker 3: a dump on NATO in the course of his remarks.

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Speaker 3: And while there's a part of me that says that's

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Speaker 3: well deserved given how they've performed, but that's not what

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Speaker 3: he said. So basically, it was a cleanse. It was

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Speaker 3: a cleanse in the sense that people were saying, there

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Speaker 3: is no plan, there are no objectives.

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Speaker 4: And we're losing.

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Speaker 3: He was reiterating for the millionth time, frankly, that there

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Speaker 3: is a plan, always has been a plan.

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Speaker 4: Here's what the objectives are, and we're meeting the objectives

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Speaker 4: ahead of schedule.

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Speaker 3: And another important principle that he alluded to was that

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Speaker 3: he had turned to these allies for them to step in.

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Speaker 4: That's their moment of opportunity to prove their value.

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Speaker 3: They chose not to show value, and he just noted

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Speaker 3: for the record, he's going to remember that. And then

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Speaker 3: there are some other allies who are leaning in, primarily

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Speaker 3: Arab golf allies who are pretty much at their limit

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Speaker 3: with the attacks from Iran and now say that they're

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Speaker 3: going to form a coalition that will provide their own

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Speaker 3: security to make sure that their product gets freely moved

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Speaker 3: out of that strait to the market.

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Speaker 2: Now, chief amongst that group is the UAE. Now, don't

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Speaker 2: get me wrong, Saudi Arabia has always hated Iran. This

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Speaker 2: is a Sunni Shia fight in terms of how you

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Speaker 2: view the Islamic faith or political system, depending on how

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Speaker 2: you say these things. They've had the proxy war they've

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Speaker 2: been dealing with in Yemen for years. The Huti Rebels

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Speaker 2: are supported by the Iranian regimes and not only going

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Speaker 2: after the people of Yemen, not only going after Saudi's

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Speaker 2: but going after our ships and other ships in the

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Speaker 2: Red Sea and other places. But the UAE, the United

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Speaker 2: Arab Emirates, has been vocal and aggressive. They want to

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Speaker 2: add combatants to help the US and by extension, help Israel.

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Speaker 2: What is their argument, what is their look to the future,

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Speaker 2: and how they're trying to position themselves, because we should

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Speaker 2: be clear for these Arab nations, they hate Iran, they're

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Speaker 2: tired of the destabilization, but they are all trying to

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Speaker 2: position themselves in a level of safety and security for

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Speaker 2: the next twenty years as the world has now shifted.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Tony, you're right to focus on the United Air Memirates.

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Speaker 3: They are punching way above their weight in terms of geography,

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Speaker 3: population size.

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Speaker 4: They of course have some wealth.

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Speaker 3: Because of their energy endowment, but they're also diversifying their

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Speaker 3: economy and investing a lot in the United States and

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Speaker 3: in recent times, as you elluded, always had some things

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Speaker 3: to say about the theogratic regime in Iran.

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Speaker 4: There are a lot of Iranians that go to the.

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Speaker 3: UAE, and so it's not really about the Iranians as

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Speaker 3: much as it's about that regime, and they are fed

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Speaker 3: up with that regime destabilizing the region, destabilizing markets, supporting terrorism.

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Speaker 3: UAE is one of the leaders in designating the Muslim

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Speaker 3: Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. And throughout all of this

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Speaker 3: they've been speaking pretty bluntly to Europe as much as

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Speaker 3: they've spoken any where else. Is saying, you know, you

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Speaker 3: have this unfettered migration policy that makes no sense, and

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Speaker 3: now you have a huge radicalized population, and you won't

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Speaker 3: as we have, recognize these Muslim Brotherhood folks as terrorists,

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Speaker 3: and now you're siding essentially with Iran. So I think

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Speaker 3: what they're doing is very effectively putting a lie to

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Speaker 3: the notion that this is Israel dragging America and President

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Speaker 3: Trump along, or that it's Israeli United States operating alone

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Speaker 3: and for our own selfish interests.

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Speaker 4: There are others, real allies that.

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Speaker 3: Have skin in this game, and they're speaking up, and

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to be acting on their own

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Speaker 3: national interests going forward in a more aggressive way as well.

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Speaker 4: They should.

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Speaker 3: That's another part of trump Ism, letting allies have greater

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Speaker 3: independent capability and they can carry the share of burden

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Speaker 3: that they're able to carry.

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Speaker 2: Talking to Steve Yates the Heritage Foundation, Heritage dot org,

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Speaker 2: let me bring in something that President Trump said, right,

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Speaker 2: Hold on one second, because what the President said, well,

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Speaker 2: the President said specific to oil and the Strait of Hormos,

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Speaker 2: is Hey, European nations, stop looking to us. You want

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Speaker 2: this stuff, go get it. Here's what the President said.

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Speaker 5: The trees of the world that do receive oil through

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Speaker 5: the hormonestrait must take care of that passage. They must

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Speaker 5: cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They

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Speaker 5: can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they

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Speaker 5: should take the lead in protecting the oil that they

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Speaker 5: so desperately depend on. So to those countries that can't

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Speaker 5: get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in

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Speaker 5: the decapitation of Iran, we had to do it ourselves.

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Speaker 1: I have a suggestion.

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Speaker 5: Number one, buy oil from the United States of America.

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Speaker 1: We have plenty, we have so much.

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Speaker 5: And number two, build up some delayed courage should have

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Speaker 5: done it before. Should have done it with it, as

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Speaker 5: we asked, go to the strait and just take it,

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Speaker 5: protect it, use it for yourselves. Aran has been essentially decimated.

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Speaker 5: The hard part is done, so it should be easy.

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Speaker 5: And in any event, when this conflict is over, the

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Speaker 5: strait will open up naturally.

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Speaker 1: It'll just open up naturally.

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Speaker 2: No, I must tell you, sir, I don't know if

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Speaker 2: the strait opens up naturally. I think that's a little

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Speaker 2: more hope than anything else. The President had said this

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Speaker 2: a couple of days prior, so again not necessarily anything

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Speaker 2: new for the speech, but maybe new to some people

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Speaker 2: who hadn't heard it a prior. Is this somehow shocking

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Speaker 2: for the Europeans to hear in that go setting you

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Speaker 2: go set your own agenda and go live, live your

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Speaker 2: own life. Stop depending on the United States, And is

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Speaker 2: that what we want?

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Speaker 1: Well?

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Speaker 3: There is an element of how the President talks that

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Speaker 3: I absolutely love and find very necessary, in that we've

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Speaker 3: had very lazy, welfare queen like behavior from some of

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Speaker 3: our allies, where they sit back and expect, they don't ask,

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Speaker 3: they expect that we will pay, and we will carry

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Speaker 3: a burden and it will be in service of them.

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Speaker 3: Because somehow they're great, and he's basically telling them, look,

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Speaker 3: if you're great, then you have to demonstrate that you

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Speaker 3: have power, ability and responsibility, and you're doing none of

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Speaker 3: those things. And he's the kind of president that will

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Speaker 3: just speak openly and bluntly, not because we're a prisoner

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Speaker 3: of talking points. And I think that's necessary and I

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Speaker 3: love it, frankly. Now, the organic opening of the Strait,

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Speaker 3: there's a part I think I intellectually understand where he's

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Speaker 3: trying to go. He's made very very clear the United

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Speaker 3: States has done the heavy lift, the major military operation,

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Speaker 3: and you lesser powers who took a pass and sort

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Speaker 3: of gave sort of cat calls from the peanut gallery

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Speaker 3: through all of this.

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Speaker 4: You want, you.

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Speaker 3: Want some of this that you're dependent upon, then get

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Speaker 3: in here and get it. He's telling them to come

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Speaker 3: and occupy cart Island and all of that sounds like it,

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Speaker 3: but I don't really think that's what he's after.

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Speaker 4: He's just saying, you know, get.

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Speaker 3: In the game and protect your own stuff, and that

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Speaker 3: I think is really important. Will they I don't think

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Speaker 3: they will, and when they don't, they're once again failing

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Speaker 3: their people.

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Speaker 1: So part of this is I think that there's a.

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Speaker 2: Mistake being made as we as observers look at this

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Speaker 2: that somehow these nations were invited to the initial attack,

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Speaker 2: that they were invited to the hey, we're taking out

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Speaker 2: the Iranian regime. They weren't, as I have not seen

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Speaker 2: anything that shows me that they were, and a lot

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Speaker 2: of them. I've made this argument on the show repeatedly.

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Speaker 2: They need to look strong to their constituencies, and looking

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Speaker 2: strong means not following the leader of America, especially and

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Speaker 2: specifically Donald Trump because of this character that he is,

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Speaker 2: this charac make sure that other people make of him.

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Speaker 2: So they didn't want to play follow the leader. But

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Speaker 2: I thought the UK was going to lead with the

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Speaker 2: Royal Navy in trying to open up the strait of

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Speaker 2: horror moves. This hasn't happened, So they don't see an

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Speaker 2: opportunity for strength here and even the support of their

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Speaker 2: own citizens by ensuring the oil flows. Even if they

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Speaker 2: didn't want to be seen as follow the leader in

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Speaker 2: getting involved in this war to begin.

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Speaker 3: With, Yeah, well then it sort of makes sense to

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Speaker 3: go by the name United Kingdom rather than Great Britain

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Speaker 3: because there's nothing great about them at this point. In

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Speaker 3: terms of their behavior. And it's one thing if you

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Speaker 3: don't like a particular leader and how he talks. But

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Speaker 3: I think what President Trump is doing, and he's smarter

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Speaker 3: than they want to give him credit for, and he's

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Speaker 3: more responsible than they want to give him credit for.

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Speaker 3: He's engaged in a very calibrated campaign. He's given off

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Speaker 3: ramps multiple times to the Iranians, which they have chosen

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Speaker 3: not to take. He's given openings for allies to step

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Speaker 3: in which sometimes and maybe a lot of the time,

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Speaker 3: they chosen not to take. And he's left a lot

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Speaker 3: of the infrastructure for reconstruction and not going to do

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Speaker 3: in a rock two point zero. And so there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of these elements that a lot of their people,

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Speaker 3: if they thought about it, would see it as being calibrated, responsible,

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Speaker 3: what have you.

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Speaker 1: But they're not.

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Speaker 3: And what they're also not doing is giving any theory

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Speaker 3: for what exactly is their role in the world at

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Speaker 3: this point, what exactly is their position in the world

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Speaker 3: at this point.

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Speaker 4: It appears to.

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Speaker 3: Be taking dictation from illegal migrants in their country and

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Speaker 3: basically criticizing the United States.

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Speaker 4: That's not a recipe for any kind of future for

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Speaker 4: their people.

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Speaker 2: Talking to Stevevate to the Heritage Foundation Heritage dot org.

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Speaker 2: This exposing of Europe, I think is one of the

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Speaker 2: things that is absolutely underplayed in media. And you can

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Speaker 2: understand why they adore Europe, they ascribe themselves or they

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Speaker 2: aspire to be Europe, and to expose European.

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Speaker 1: Weakness is massive.

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Speaker 2: And one of the ways this is exposed is that

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Speaker 2: the President is like, hey, go secure the Straight and

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Speaker 2: now the UK. Instead of just sending a couple of

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Speaker 2: destroyers and saying, Okay, we're gonna do this for our

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Speaker 2: own interest, they go to the UN and they've assembled

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Speaker 2: the again we're in the Coalition of the willing World,

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Speaker 2: and they've got a coalition in forty nations and now

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Speaker 2: they're looking for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution.

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Speaker 1: I couldn't make this up, Steve if I wanted to.

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Speaker 1: They want the.

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Speaker 2: UN Security Council to pass a resolution to allow them

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Speaker 2: to use force in a defensive posture in order to

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Speaker 2: open up the strait, so they can only make moves

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Speaker 2: if they are attacked. This is their mathematics will show

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Speaker 2: up and we'll wait for Iran to do something and

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Speaker 2: then maybe we'll do something back and that'll be real strength.

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Speaker 2: This is an ugly, ugly, childlike scared look from the Europeans.

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Speaker 3: No, it is, and it basically just is complete blindness

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Speaker 3: to the memo that I think everybody should have received

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Speaker 3: ten years ago. And if not that then when President

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Speaker 3: Trump was reelected that the era of globalism is over.

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Speaker 3: The idea that good and bad powers around the world

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Speaker 3: are going to be controlled by and managed by some

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Speaker 3: overlord that's beyond the nation state is just fantasy. And

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Speaker 3: it's a fantasy that helped China break out as a

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Speaker 3: disruptive power. It's a fantasy that helped Russia be aggressive

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Speaker 3: against Ukraine and grind this war multiple years. And it's

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Speaker 3: a fantasy that allowed Iran for nearly five decades to

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Speaker 3: behave completely irresponsibly. And yet what the devil did the

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Speaker 3: United Nations exactly do, whether counterproliferation, human rights, or any

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Speaker 3: of the other covenants that they have in terms of enforcement,

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Speaker 3: and it comes back to nothing. So to kind of

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Speaker 3: go back and sort of appeal to the absolutely corrupt

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Speaker 3: and worthless United Nations to get a permission slip to

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Speaker 3: defend your national commercial interests.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it wasn't like asking.

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Speaker 3: Them to go and storm Tehran, or go install their

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Speaker 3: own preferred leader in Iran, or even to secure the

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Speaker 3: nuclear fissile material that might still be inside Iran, which

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Speaker 3: would be kind of an international peacekeeping like mission.

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Speaker 4: They're asking for none of that.

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Speaker 3: They're asking what we all have as nation states, which

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Speaker 3: is the right to defend ourselves, our ships and our

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Speaker 3: cargo for international commerce, one of the only reasons we

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Speaker 3: have a navy and a federal government.

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Speaker 2: Really quick though, on this idea of coalitions, and we

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Speaker 2: didn't ask these other nations. Do you think the president

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Speaker 2: should have asked some others if they want to be involved,

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Speaker 2: or was the idea of them leaking just simply too

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Speaker 2: much of a risk or some other issue.

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Speaker 3: I think you hit the bullseye, and basically Trump two

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Speaker 3: point zero has a near perfect record of keeping things

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Speaker 3: close hold, with very very few truly authority citative leaks,

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Speaker 3: and those are probably deliberate, lots of speculatory kinds of

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Speaker 3: things that are attributed as leaks that I'm not convinced

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Speaker 3: actually exist. But basically, the old rule of thumb in

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Speaker 3: tradecraft is the fewer people you tell, the fewer people

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Speaker 3: who could possibly leak, you keep your operation security, you

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Speaker 3: have your element of surprise, you hit hard and everyone's

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Speaker 3: on react and you have the advantage. And that's what

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Speaker 3: the President did. That's what he did in concert with

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Speaker 3: Israel in an historic way that I don't think has

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Speaker 3: ever been done with any other ally with a joint

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Speaker 3: operation like this. And so in retrospect, I think historians

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Speaker 3: are going to look at this and they're going to say,

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Speaker 3: this is really remarkable from an operational point of view.

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Speaker 3: And one of the keys to that operational success was

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Speaker 3: minimizing that circle. And if you'd have gone to Europe,

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Speaker 3: you know, it would have been on the front pages

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Speaker 3: of the New York Times and all over social media.

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Speaker 1: Steve Yate before I let you go.

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Speaker 2: The President brought up regime change in the speech, and

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Speaker 2: he's brought up in some other talks prior to that

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Speaker 2: that we didn't go in for regime change. But that's

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Speaker 2: what we've actually done, and we've changed it twice. I

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Speaker 2: believe I said to you last time we spoke, I

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Speaker 2: won't listen to any of that. Of course, it was

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Speaker 2: regime change, There's no question it was regime change. I

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Speaker 2: would say that to the president directly, completely unafraid of

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Speaker 2: being thrown out of the room.

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Speaker 1: It was regime change.

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Speaker 2: But we keep hearing about how this new group they're

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Speaker 2: more reasonable, but they're still radicals, and it's it's trying

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Speaker 2: to have it both ways. In the end, can any

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Speaker 2: deal be made with the current speaker of the Iranian Parliament?

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Speaker 2: With the Iranian president A Perezva. I can never pronounce

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Speaker 2: his name, A Poreshvian. I'm still not getting it right.

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Speaker 2: Based for the next one, is that's just it? Or

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Speaker 2: does this have to be completely gone, no connection to

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Speaker 2: the Ayatola for us to have an opportunity to create

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Speaker 2: a deal.

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Speaker 3: Well, look, if someone would have come to me and said,

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Speaker 3: here's how do you recommend going through this kind of

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Speaker 3: a strategy, I probably wouldn't have put very much credence

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Speaker 3: into negotiating with the remnants.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't have on that with Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: But I have to give some deference to the president

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Speaker 3: and taking this route. He is basically splitting the difference

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Speaker 3: between the maximalist Iraq policy of the Bush Cheney administration

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Speaker 3: in which I served and the sort of new isolationists

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Speaker 3: that don't want anything anywhere and don't even seem to

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Speaker 3: want any allies anywhere, and so he's not doing regime

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Speaker 3: change for building new democracy occupying and controlling a country.

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Speaker 3: But he's also not saying I'm going to sit on

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Speaker 3: my hands and only pay off the threat like Barack

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Speaker 3: Obama tried to do, so I give him some credit

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Speaker 3: for trying it. He also seems to have the patience

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Speaker 3: that if this next round fails, well, then he'll go

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Speaker 3: another round, and at some point rationality has to settle it.

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Speaker 3: On the other side of I think I'd rather stay alive,

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Speaker 3: and I think I'm going to at least keep the deal,

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Speaker 3: or at least fake keeping the deal long enough and

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Speaker 3: that changes behavior enough for the US to muddle through

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Speaker 3: and our coalition maybe to wake up.

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Speaker 2: Steve Yates from the Heritage Foundation Heritage dot org, I

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Speaker 2: appreciate you being with us more to

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Speaker 1: Get to this is Tony Katz today,