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Speaker 1: So what does it mean to be at war? What

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Speaker 1: does warfare actually look like? And let's discuss the art

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Speaker 1: of deception when it comes to warfare. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: a huge part of things. I get that we may

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Speaker 1: not like it. I get that the American press can't

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Speaker 1: stand it. But if you did what the American press

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Speaker 1: said to do, you would lose everything, all the time, everywhere.

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz, Tony Kats today, Good to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Steve Yates joins me right now. He is the Senior

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Speaker 1: Research Fellow on China Natural Security Policy and is at

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Speaker 1: the Young Fellow Asian Study Center with the Heritage Foundation,

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Speaker 1: and sir, good to be with you. We were talking

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Speaker 1: a little bit before we joined the radio show about

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Speaker 1: what it is that we're seeing from President Trump when

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Speaker 1: there is this conversation about how he is speaking to

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Speaker 1: the Iranians and how the Iranians offered him a gift

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Speaker 1: on about oil and natural gas. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: the gift is. You take a look at the Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal and they've got the headline a wannabe strong

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Speaker 1: man rises in Iran as Trump seeks a deal maker,

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Speaker 1: and this is Mohammed Bager Galibaf who is the spokesperson

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Speaker 1: or the speaker, I should say, of the Iranian parliament. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think the first question is who made this guy

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Speaker 1: as somebody who could speak for the Iranian people? And

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Speaker 1: then the follow up is, how can the president make

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Speaker 1: a claim that he's talking to Iran about a deal

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Speaker 1: and ending nuclear weapons this and ending the war that

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Speaker 1: when you've also bragged that you've killed the entire leadership.

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Speaker 2: Well, Tony, I think what makes it difficult for us

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Speaker 2: is that a lot of these things are true at

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Speaker 2: the same time. Number One, we don't really get to

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Speaker 2: know who the president is talking to yet, because to

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Speaker 2: publicly identify that person is to put the world's biggest

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Speaker 2: bullseye on them by Islamis, terror rists and the remnants

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Speaker 2: of the regime that are not yet cowed by getting

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Speaker 2: mowed over by major military operations. And the President talks

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Speaker 2: about this gift, I too sort of smile and wonder

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Speaker 2: what this possible gift is. But what it sounds to

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Speaker 2: me like in tradecraft is that you have someone you're

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Speaker 2: talking to, but you need to know are they the

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Speaker 2: real deal? And if they do something for you that

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Speaker 2: you can verify is done and is a value it's

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Speaker 2: sort of like an earnest deposit on credibility. Then you say, well,

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Speaker 2: if they can move those resources, they could open up

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Speaker 2: this ceilane or whatever it was the test that was given.

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Speaker 2: Then you know you're dealing with a credible counterpart who

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Speaker 2: has some measure of influence. And it seems like the

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Speaker 2: President is feeling his way across the stream, stepping rock

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Speaker 2: by rock in doing that, and so people might not

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Speaker 2: like it. People might want instant answers. I deeply, deeply

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Speaker 2: doubt the instant information is durable and useful information, and

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Speaker 2: I think that's necessary under the current circumstances.

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Speaker 1: Now, this idea that all warfarees deception, right, that's sunsu

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Speaker 1: of the art of war. This infuriates the American people

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Speaker 1: because what we want is information. What we want is answers.

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Speaker 1: I can go to my phone, I can turn on

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Speaker 1: any part of the internet anywhere if you will, and

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Speaker 1: I can get instant information, but I don't have information here.

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Speaker 1: And how the political left and how the media looks

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Speaker 1: at this and shares this is we're being lied to.

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Speaker 1: We had cenator Chris van Holland we're being lied to

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Speaker 1: about this, lied to about the other live to about

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Speaker 1: who's talking to you lied to about the thing which

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Speaker 1: I consider giving, it's giving aid and comfort to the enemy.

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Speaker 1: How standard is this throughout our history regarding what the

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Speaker 1: American people are told and what is well?

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you go deeper and just talk about

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Speaker 2: Western civilization, it goes back thousands of years. And if

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Speaker 2: we were talking with Victor Davis Hanson number one, it

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Speaker 2: would be a very long conversation, but it would also

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Speaker 2: be very well researched on what was going on in

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Speaker 2: those ancient cultures with exactly tradecraft, in use of power

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Speaker 2: and in warfare and political warfare, deception, manipulation, all these

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Speaker 2: things are very very important parts of comprehensive warfare. And

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Speaker 2: it's the way our enemies operate. It's the way that

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Speaker 2: Chinese Communist Party operates, It's the way the Islamist regimes operate.

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Speaker 2: They use all of these tools. I want to stop

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Speaker 2: you that from terms, if you're gambling.

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Speaker 1: I want to stop you there for a second because

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Speaker 1: you said something that I don't think people comprehend, and

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Speaker 1: I want a little more understanding of they operate this way.

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Speaker 1: You brought up the Communist Chinese Party and brought up

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Speaker 1: into the Islamist how do they operate? And when you

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Speaker 1: say they operate this way, who are you comparing them

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Speaker 1: to the United States or other forces that we have

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Speaker 1: fought before?

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Speaker 2: Right, Well, I would say when you're talking about the

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Speaker 2: Chinese Communist Party and say the Islamist regime that's in Iran.

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Speaker 2: The Islamists that we have faced before and after a

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Speaker 2: nine to eleve, they don't really fuss about about is

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Speaker 2: what they're broadcasting true? They only look at is it useful?

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Speaker 2: Is it moving or manipulating a target? Is it dividing

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Speaker 2: an enemy? And if I can divide and distract my enemy,

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Speaker 2: then I have a net advantage without having had the

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Speaker 2: fire a shot. So they use comprehensive tools, whether it's

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Speaker 2: economic influence and coercion, information influence and coercion, and then

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Speaker 2: also have the use of force, whether it is to

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Speaker 2: hit civilian in addition to military targets. We, however, try

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Speaker 2: to be better and I admire that impulse and it's

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Speaker 2: a good impulse. It's part of our checks and balances.

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Speaker 2: But especially since the Vietnam era, we have tried to

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Speaker 2: conduct warfare and ways that are that are constraining so

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Speaker 2: that we will limit the kind of public statements that

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Speaker 2: our leaders put out because we don't want them to

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Speaker 2: see us, and we shouldn't want them to deceive us.

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Speaker 2: But the problem is when you live in globalized and

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Speaker 2: instant information, you don't speak to only one audience. So

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Speaker 2: consider this like playing poker and I get to hold

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Speaker 2: my cards close to the chest, but yours have to

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Speaker 2: be faced up on the table because you've chosen to

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Speaker 2: live in a free and open society. Free and open

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Speaker 2: society is good, but it's also very vulnerable to manipulation

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Speaker 2: and attack, and at a time of crisis you at

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Speaker 2: least have to be aware of that and try to

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Speaker 2: figure are their options that can make us less vulnerable,

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Speaker 2: and are there ways to make them less cloaked and

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Speaker 2: have to show some of their cards. And that's where

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Speaker 2: some of the tools we're using in this campaign come

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Speaker 2: back into that category of making a headfake, maybe giving

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Speaker 2: out different information to try to draw them off guard,

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Speaker 2: and having them in negotiations. At the same time, we

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Speaker 2: don't believe them and we might just as well hit them.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Steve Yates, Senior Research til for China and

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Speaker 1: National Security Policy at the Heritage Foundation, Heritage dot Org.

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Speaker 1: So we can't be sure that anybody's being spoken to.

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Speaker 1: We had all the conversation about President Trump, if you

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Speaker 1: don't come to the table in two days, we're going

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Speaker 1: to hit all the power plants, and then saying all right,

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Speaker 1: we'll give it a five day reprieve. But he had

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Speaker 1: never hit a power plant, so who knows how what

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Speaker 1: that was. But I hear the political left telling me

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Speaker 1: that this would be a war crime. It is this

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Speaker 1: constant going at President Trump. Is this a Trump phenomenon

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Speaker 1: or is there always been a bit of Oh, the

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Speaker 1: administration's lying to you. I mean, I'm asking you more

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Speaker 1: of a political question. I am maybe a historical question here.

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Speaker 1: But this seems, even in a world of the left

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Speaker 1: hating Donald Trump, very new and very much to me,

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Speaker 1: and aid and comfort to the enemy conversation.

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Speaker 2: Well, it is all of those things. And I remember

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Speaker 2: twenty plus years ago being in the White House and

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Speaker 2: being subjected to all all of these kinds of things

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Speaker 2: back in that day, At that time, George W. Bush

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Speaker 2: wasn't seen as a warm and cuddly man of August

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Speaker 2: stature and kind of compassionate conservatism that was the brand.

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Speaker 2: He was called Hitler, All kinds of accusations of war

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Speaker 2: crimes were thrown at him and everyone who worked for

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Speaker 2: him in national security. It's on steroids with Trump, for sure.

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Speaker 2: And the oddity of it is that Donald Trump is

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Speaker 2: doing things that should actually be in alignment with what

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Speaker 2: a lot of these forces would want. He is trying

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Speaker 2: to avoid destruction of the civilian infrastructure, trying to avoid

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Speaker 2: civilian casualties. And if you get the scope of these

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Speaker 2: major military operations, number one, they're amazing in terms of

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Speaker 2: their lethality and effectiveness militarily, but also they're pretty amazing

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Speaker 2: in avoiding mass civilian casualties while hitting a wide geography

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Speaker 2: that's actually pretty cautious. And then his willingness to pull

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Speaker 2: back and talk with people that other people would refuse

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Speaker 2: to talk to that opens up a chance for de

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Speaker 2: escalation that others would have rejected. So in a lot

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Speaker 2: of ways, he's much more careful and pragmatic than any

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Speaker 2: of his critics would ever give him credit for.

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Speaker 1: When we talk about the pulling back, and this is

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Speaker 1: where I become concerned, it's that it's possible that I

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Speaker 1: have a different objective than the president. My objective is

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Speaker 1: to end the regime. So there is no more terrorist

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Speaker 1: threat of any kind that includes nuclear threat. It's an

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Speaker 1: all encompassing conversation. But no more funding of Hesbil and Hamas,

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Speaker 1: no more funding of the Houti rebels, no more funding

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Speaker 1: of cells that could be right here in the United

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Speaker 1: States and other places. It's overdone and complete. And yes,

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Speaker 1: you allow the Iranian people, these Persians to go about

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Speaker 1: living their lives and creating their life. For President Trump,

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Speaker 1: he sees the world differently. Right. It is for me

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Speaker 1: what I coined years ago is these are the two

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Speaker 1: rules of trump Ism. The first rule of trump Ism

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Speaker 1: is Trump wins. And the second rule of trump Ism

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Speaker 1: is that a deal can always be made as long

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Speaker 1: as it adheres to the first rule of trump Ism,

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Speaker 1: which gives me pause. It gives me real concern. As

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Speaker 1: you see it, your conversations, your insight, what do you

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Speaker 1: think the president's real goal is?

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Speaker 2: Well, first, I would say that I agree completely with

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Speaker 2: the Tony Katz theory of the universe as you've just

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Speaker 2: described it, and the theory of how the president operates.

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Speaker 2: Of course, he's more complex than that. When we use

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Speaker 2: these simplistic distillations to try to understand and make points,

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Speaker 2: and those are valid, and there's more to what he's

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Speaker 2: doing than just those things. But broadly speaking, what you

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Speaker 2: described is exactly why people get concerned, nervous, why they

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Speaker 2: wonder whether they're getting complete information. Some people pathologically unwilling

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Speaker 2: to accept the information they're given. But we have to

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Speaker 2: have to try to step back, and it's the hardest

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Speaker 2: thing in the world to do, because we are addicted

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Speaker 2: to instant information and belief that we have instant knowledge

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Speaker 2: and reality. When these are evolving situations, and President Trump

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Speaker 2: likes to operate in shifting sands sands he might have

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Speaker 2: made shift. That's where he finds his deals, that's where

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Speaker 2: he finds his leverage. But ultimately he is changing the

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Speaker 2: tectonic plates the world is moving around on. And so

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Speaker 2: when I get concerned about it, at least I just

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Speaker 2: remind myself. Broadly speaking, the Middle East has never been

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Speaker 2: in a better position to have a more stable next

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Speaker 2: decade or two than since the Abraham Accords and whatever

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Speaker 2: comes out of this.

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Speaker 1: Yes, and we should agree that the Abraham Accords is

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Speaker 1: the start of everything. It can all be brought back

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Speaker 1: to that. Steve Yates from the Heritage Foundation before I

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Speaker 1: let you go. Is there a consideration from Trump? The

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Speaker 1: War Powers Act, the price of oil? Do these things

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Speaker 1: move him to wanting to wrap things up more than

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Speaker 1: the idea of the regimes.

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Speaker 2: And I don't think President Trump needed any motivation to

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Speaker 2: try to want to want to wrap things up. It

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Speaker 2: has been his impulse, his DNA for four plus decades,

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Speaker 2: and he's been on television talking about it forever. And

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Speaker 2: so the idea that he would ever put himself at

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Speaker 2: risk of being in a forever war, as we like

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Speaker 2: to call them, is basically zero. And so we're in

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Speaker 2: a period where we've been going for a month. We

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Speaker 2: don't see clearly exactly how this land. But I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's the War Powers actn't which gives sixty to

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Speaker 2: ninety days slack, So we're still well within that. And

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's sort of the concern of the markets,

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Speaker 2: although he's really sensitive to markets. And so that's why

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Speaker 2: I believe some kind of a deal and a de

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Speaker 2: escalation is coming in the next week or two, or

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Speaker 2: a major major hit is coming in the next week

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Speaker 2: or two. And no matter what happens, when we deescalate

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Speaker 2: Israel and our Arab allies and perhaps others. They're going

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Speaker 2: to be mowing the lawn in this region while we're

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Speaker 2: there to come in as needed going forward, but I

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Speaker 2: don't expect America to be the everyday maintenance crew for

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Speaker 2: this region.

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Speaker 1: I've never heard the term in warfare and mowing the lawn.

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Speaker 1: That's going to get used right there, Steve Va. It's

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Speaker 1: followed on Twitter X yes Y A T E. S

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Speaker 1: from the Heritage Foundation. I appreciate you being here, Sir Morris.

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Speaker 1: Coming up. I'm Tony Katz