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Speaker 1: Live from the Hartbeyer and the Crossroads of America.

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Speaker 2: It's Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 3: So these reports come out today about inflation CPI Consumer

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Speaker 3: Price Index, and it says it rows two point four

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Speaker 3: percent annually, and off to the races, everybody wents Inflation's down,

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Speaker 3: Trump's done it, Inflation is over. Inflation is not over.

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Speaker 3: But why can't we say that point two percent is

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Speaker 3: a really good number? Tony Katz, Tony kats today. Good

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Speaker 3: to be here, Good to be with you. Doctor Matt

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Speaker 3: will joins us. He is our economist from the University

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Speaker 3: of Indianapolis. The report states that it is point two

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Speaker 3: percent up on the consumer prices point three percent, uh,

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Speaker 3: with the core really two and a half percent if

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Speaker 3: you in a CNBC. So we can annualize it to

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Speaker 3: two point four percent, which is very close to the

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Speaker 3: target of two percent. Shouldn't there be cheering in the

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Speaker 3: streets that inflation is slowly moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, no no. And I'm so disappointed that

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Speaker 1: we have become complacent and we accept a higher than

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Speaker 1: elevated inflation. And the core is point three that's three

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Speaker 1: point six percent. It is not under control. It is stalled.

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Speaker 1: At an elevated level. And remember the targets one to two,

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Speaker 1: and we always talk about two. No, I refuse to

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Speaker 1: it's one to two. That's the target, and just clipping

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Speaker 1: the top of the target is not good. That's still

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Speaker 1: too high. So we have not controlled inflation and it's

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Speaker 1: not gone. And producer prices are still annualized at six percent.

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Speaker 1: So no, inflation is not gone, and the market, the

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Speaker 1: market agrees with me. The market kind of took a

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Speaker 1: yawn and said, Okay, not bad, not good. I think

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Speaker 1: they're moving on and looking at other things.

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Speaker 2: Moving on and looking at what other things? You mean,

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Speaker 2: other indicators.

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Speaker 1: No, I think they're saying, okay, this is a nothing burger.

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Speaker 1: We're going to go back and look at earnings, how's

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Speaker 1: how our company's doing. We're gonna look at how AI

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Speaker 1: specifically anthropic, which is a big play in the market

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Speaker 1: right now. And you know, we're gonna move along and

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Speaker 1: look at other things. I don't think the market's going

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Speaker 1: to pay a lot of attention to this report because

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Speaker 1: this report did not move the needle. Inflation is here,

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Speaker 1: but it's not a killer, but it's also still here.

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Speaker 3: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 3: I understand how you do it. You take a look

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Speaker 3: at the point too, you multiply by twelve, you get

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Speaker 3: two point four. You take a look at the core

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Speaker 3: of which excludes food and energy pricing, and you get

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Speaker 3: to it's point three, and you get to three point

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Speaker 3: six percent.

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Speaker 2: But I guess if.

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Speaker 3: We see these numbers, and we see it rows less

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Speaker 3: than expected, you can still make the argument that there's

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Speaker 3: even if there's more money in the system, there's more

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Speaker 3: spending in the system, and it isn't causing inflation to

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Speaker 3: run away. There is something valuable in that that we

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Speaker 3: can all hang our hats on.

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Speaker 1: Yes, let me tell you whether there's something valuable. Where

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Speaker 1: there's something valuable is that it could be a lot worse,

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Speaker 1: and again it beat expectations. And the reason it's not

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Speaker 1: a lot worse is because of good Trump. Good Trump

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Speaker 1: is growing the economy at almost five percent. The Atlanta

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Speaker 1: Set is still over five percent in their forecast for

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Speaker 1: the next quarter, which is phenomenal for an economy of

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Speaker 1: our size. He is doing things like, you know, rescinding

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Speaker 1: this insane act that was issued by Obama many years ago,

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Speaker 1: which is causing growth. He's causing what's called we call

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Speaker 1: capital deepening with all these little things that he's doing.

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Speaker 1: We will to increase his capital expenditures. He's doing a

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Speaker 1: lot of things.

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Speaker 2: You brought up something interesting.

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Speaker 3: What doctor Will is talking about is what the EPA

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Speaker 3: put out just yesterday.

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Speaker 2: It was President Trump, it was Lee Zelden, and.

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Speaker 3: And this is what God SAIDs there right there, doctor, Well,

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Speaker 3: this is what President Trump said.

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Speaker 4: But I'm pleased to be joined today by e PA

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Speaker 4: Administrator LEEZ Elden, who you all know, and to announce

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Speaker 4: the single largest deregulatory action in American history.

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Speaker 2: That's a big statement in American history. And I think

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Speaker 2: we can add the words by far.

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Speaker 4: Under the process just completed by the EPA, we are

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Speaker 4: officially terminating the so called Endangerment Finding, a disastrous Obama

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Speaker 4: era policy that severely damaged the American auto industry and

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Speaker 4: massively drove up prices for American consumers. Prices went up incredibly.

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Speaker 2: For a worse product.

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Speaker 3: Listen, cars aren't rageously expensive fifty thousand dollars average price,

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Speaker 3: people doing thousand dollars a month payments.

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Speaker 2: But the Endangerment rule, the Endangerment Finding.

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Speaker 3: From two thousand and nine that discusses that carbon dioxide, methane,

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Speaker 3: nitrous oxide, hydroflora, carbons, per fluor carbons, at sulfur hexafluoride,

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Speaker 3: they threaten public health and welfare. Now I'm not saying

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Speaker 3: these things are great for you, but what happened in

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Speaker 3: two thousand and nine was to set up for the

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Speaker 3: Green New Deal and the huge progressive agenda. This push

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Speaker 3: that did raise the prices of all sorts of things,

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Speaker 3: including automobiles. When you take a look at this move

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Speaker 3: on the EPA's part, before we get into some of

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Speaker 3: the other things you're talking about regarding capital expenditures. This

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Speaker 3: move celebrated by Wall Street or is a meh by Walls.

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Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, genius. You know, Can I grab some

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Speaker 1: Trump hyperbole and throw it in here. This was It's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: Let me explain why it's a dual thing. Okay. One

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Speaker 1: is getting rid of this ridiculous EPA Endangerment finding, which

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Speaker 1: was basically a political decision, not a scientific decision. But

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Speaker 1: it compares it with this thing called NEPA reform, which

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Speaker 1: Trump did also National Environmental Policy Act. What he did

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Speaker 1: is he said, in injunction with what he did yesterday

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Speaker 1: is the EPA block things typically between eight and ten years.

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Speaker 1: The EPA just throws it into the black hole of

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Speaker 1: the EPA and you can't get a project approved to

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Speaker 1: grow your business. Well Trump said, no, no, no, no no.

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Speaker 1: The EPA must make a decision between one and two years,

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Speaker 1: and if they don't make a decision within one to

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Speaker 1: two years, you can go forward with your project. This

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Speaker 1: has accelerated investment in our country, domestic investment, foreign investment.

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Speaker 1: Who would wait eight to ten years to make an investment,

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Speaker 1: put up a factory to build something. The economy changes

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Speaker 1: in eight to ten years. This is a fantastic Again,

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Speaker 1: lots of hyperbole to get rid of the stupid NEPA

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Speaker 1: issue and get rid of the EPA endangerment. Finding these

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Speaker 1: two things are growing the economy, which goes back to

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Speaker 1: our conversation. It's growing the economy, which is counterbalancing the

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Speaker 1: bad policies that exist to cause inflation, which is why

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Speaker 1: inflation is moderated. But let's not accept it. I will

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Speaker 1: not accept three point six percent inflation. I refuse to.

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Speaker 1: It's still too high.

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Speaker 3: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 3: Now that is an interesting take because very often when

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Speaker 3: people hear you on the show, they're like, Tony, he's

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Speaker 3: so negative about Trump. And I make the argument, he's

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Speaker 3: not negative about Trump. He's wondering why there isn't more

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Speaker 3: happening to the positive. He celebrates one hundred positive things,

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Speaker 3: and then he notes, where where's some realcity are? You

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Speaker 3: don't want to accept three point six percent inflation?

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Speaker 2: We saw that tariffs.

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Speaker 3: The calculations calculation show that tariffs added one thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: of cost every household and that in twenty twenty six

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Speaker 3: the projection could be thirteen hundred dollars worth of cost.

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Speaker 3: Is it taraff malone that is leading to keeping inflation existing?

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Speaker 1: No, it's also government spending. Trump has reduced the size

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Speaker 1: of government relative to its employees, but the amount of

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Speaker 1: government spending continues to be out of control. And you know,

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Speaker 1: Trump is a He's a spender. He just doesn't spend

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Speaker 1: as much as the Democrat. He had that problem in

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Speaker 1: his first term, but he got away with it. There

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Speaker 1: wasn't inflation in this first term because he grew the economy.

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Speaker 1: Will he get away with it this time? I think

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Speaker 1: he can I really think he can grow this thing.

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Speaker 1: When you talk about his capital deepening, bonus depreciation, capital expenditures,

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Speaker 1: neper reform, his scope of practice reforms, this guy is

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Speaker 1: hitting on six steed to seventy percent cylinders, except he's

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Speaker 1: still spending too much and he's still doing the tariffs.

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Speaker 1: And I think he might be able to grow hisself

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Speaker 1: out of this inflation. Might. I'm not going to say

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Speaker 1: he can't. But we still have it. It's still at

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Speaker 1: the producer level. We're not seeing it as much in

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Speaker 1: the CPI, but it's still those those The PPI was

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Speaker 1: six percent. That is too much.

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Speaker 3: Now we get back to this number, this CPI. What

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Speaker 3: is we've seen and where the markets taken from here?

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Speaker 3: This inflation conversation that we keep discussing has zero effect

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Speaker 3: on the market. To say it, in a very gun

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Speaker 3: with the wind kind of setting, the market has said, Frankly,

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Speaker 3: my dear, I don't give a damn. They could not

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Speaker 3: care less what you scream about regarding inflation or when

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Speaker 3: I say regarding inflation, notice I called you.

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Speaker 2: The scream are not me.

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Speaker 3: And they say we're gonna keep going up. We're Dow

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Speaker 3: fifty thousand, even though right now, we're under fifty thousand.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna keep building, keep growing. Gas prices are down,

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Speaker 3: you got a whole host of other prices are down.

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Speaker 3: It's good enough for us to grow. So you're making

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Speaker 3: the argument of how dare we accept this?

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Speaker 2: And the market is.

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Speaker 3: Making the argument of, of course, this is just fine.

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Speaker 3: Is there a moment where the market doesn't accept?

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm gonna disagree with what you said. I think

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Speaker 1: the market is one hundred percent on the same page

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Speaker 1: as me. They see the inflation, they see it's real,

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Speaker 1: but they also see all these great things. The market

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Speaker 1: is not an anti.

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Speaker 3: Trump pro Trump.

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Speaker 1: The market is a realist. It's like me. We look

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Speaker 1: at the data. So I believe the market sees a

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Speaker 1: majority of the data that's good. That the tariffs are bad,

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Speaker 1: inflation is not good, but we see the earnings coming out.

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Speaker 1: You can't deny the earnings that have been announced by companies.

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Speaker 1: We talked about the other Coca Cola up twenty three

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Speaker 1: percent for the year. Coke doesn't grow that much. There

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Speaker 1: is good news on Wall Street, and Wall Street says, yeah,

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Speaker 1: we got some bad news over here, but man, this

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Speaker 1: is good news. It's pretty impressive.

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Speaker 2: So now what's next?

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Speaker 3: Right, the moves of the EPA we like quite a bit.

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Speaker 3: The moves the tarrifs we don't like quite a bit.

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Speaker 3: We're seeing that people are talking about investments. You have

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Speaker 3: another trade deal that just got struck with Taiwan. But

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Speaker 3: I haven't seen the dollars hit our shores. I haven't

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Speaker 3: seen shovels into the ground. As an economist views this,

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Speaker 3: what is next, What is the thing that if X, well,

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Speaker 3: then that is going to lead to a result that

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Speaker 3: Midwest main Street can feel.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to again say that you haven't seen

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Speaker 1: the shovels in the ground yet, but I think they're

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Speaker 1: in the planning process. Because when Trump announces these billions

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Speaker 1: of dollars of investing in the country, they're legit, but

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Speaker 1: you don't flip a switch and stick a shovel in

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Speaker 1: the ground. What he's doing with this Kneppa reform, what

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Speaker 1: he's doing with you know, his announcement yesterday, what he's

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Speaker 1: doing with you know, capital deepening. All these things take

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Speaker 1: a little bit of time, and he's put in pieces

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Speaker 1: in place. Trump is an interesting irony because he's so

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Speaker 1: much into the PT Barlum Barnum, you know, bragging about everything.

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Speaker 1: But then if you look behind the scenes, the nerdy

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Speaker 1: little things about Capex expenditures and Nipper reform and AI,

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Speaker 1: there's all these little things going on that don't make

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Speaker 1: headlines that I believe are even more important than the

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Speaker 1: stuff he announces with a big press conference.

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Speaker 3: So that leads us to what is it that we

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Speaker 3: should be looking for. We have venezuelan and oil sales

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Speaker 3: at a billion dollars. We're now controlling a whole bunch

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Speaker 3: of that. We're taking more of the lead in that.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about earnings. You know, we talked about Coca Cola.

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Speaker 3: Instacart had strong results going on. What we see is

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Speaker 3: this is building, This is building, this is growing, this

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Speaker 3: is successful. And yet what I think we also are

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Speaker 3: feeling in our homes are credit card debt is now

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Speaker 3: one point two eight trillion dollars. There's a report from

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Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal that Americans of higher incomes are

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Speaker 3: starting to fall behind on payments. And we still end

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Speaker 3: up with this dichotomy, this strange bit of we should

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Speaker 3: all be feeling better about this, this should be somehow

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Speaker 3: going better. Yet there are these.

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Speaker 2: Things that keep tugging at us and pulling back at us.

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Speaker 3: Some of it is indeed political, sir, It is a

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Speaker 3: political left versus Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: And they can't admit that anything's good.

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Speaker 3: They talked about egg prices until egg prices came down,

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Speaker 3: and then they never heard of an egg. They won't

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Speaker 3: talk about gas prices being down. And these things are happening.

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Speaker 3: So what do these things? Americans with higher incomes falling

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Speaker 3: behind on payments, right, We've got levels between thirty sixty

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Speaker 3: ninety and one hundred days one hundred twenty days late.

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Speaker 3: The idea that credit card debt is one point two

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Speaker 3: eight trillion dollars. Are these just well, that's that's cyclical,

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Speaker 3: or are these the ticking time bomb things that keep

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Speaker 3: everybody else, keep us from saying to everybody else everything's perfect.

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Speaker 1: They are not ticking time bombs, but they are a problem.

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Speaker 1: And I know this sounds so boring to people to hear,

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Speaker 1: but I'm just going to repeat what even Trump has said,

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Speaker 1: and that is patience. The good things that have been

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Speaker 1: put in place during this administration are still working their

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Speaker 1: way through the system. We just got the announcement yesterday

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Speaker 1: about repealing this ridiculous Obama era issue. We've seen the

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Speaker 1: reforms and energy policy. It's not going to happen overnight. Yes,

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Speaker 1: we still have some holdover credit problems. Yes we have

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Speaker 1: some income problems that are held over. But it is

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Speaker 1: moving in the right direction and we just have to

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Speaker 1: sit tight. I hope, and you know, because I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to lie about where I stand on these things,

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Speaker 1: but I hope that the ship turns sufficiently enough by November.

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Speaker 1: But it may take that long. We're in this social media,

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Speaker 1: instant gratification, instant information economy that is working to Trump's

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Speaker 1: disadvantage because he reacts too quickly to news and reports

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Speaker 1: and social media. He's got to take his own advice

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Speaker 1: and just be patient, do the right job, and things

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Speaker 1: will be on the right track again. If he could

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Speaker 1: get lower inflation and rid of the tariffs, they're not

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Speaker 1: going to happen. He's going to deal with those, But

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Speaker 1: most of the stuff he does is on the right track.

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Speaker 1: We just need to be patient. That may be a

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Speaker 1: boring answer, but that's the truth.

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Speaker 3: Not only is it the right answers I see, and

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Speaker 3: it's the answer that I've been trying to advise Scott

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Speaker 3: Besson to engage in. The answer is we're doing all

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Speaker 3: the right things. We're cleaning up the Biden mess and

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Speaker 3: look at the success. And there there was a there

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Speaker 3: was this conversation that Scott Best of the Treasury Secretary,

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Speaker 3: has been having about when you see your tax returns

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Speaker 3: because the one big beautiful bill, everything will be better.

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Speaker 2: Look at the refund checks you're getting.

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Speaker 3: Now, I already had to spend it, so I'm getting

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Speaker 3: some money back, great, But can refund checks?

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Speaker 2: Is that?

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Speaker 3: Uh?

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Speaker 2: Solid economic news?

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not solid economic news, but it's solid

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Speaker 1: pr news because the people who generally get those checks

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Speaker 1: are usually people in the lower income brackets. So that's

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Speaker 1: who Trump is trying to appeal to because those are

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Speaker 1: the folks being hurt most by the inflation. So I

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Speaker 1: actually think there's a good political play on the refund

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Speaker 1: check angle for that segment of the population. So I

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Speaker 1: don't I don't begrudge him for hyping that up. But

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Speaker 1: he's also you know, like you and I say, he

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Speaker 1: can't be lying about the inflation and the tariff thing.

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Speaker 1: That's that's still real.

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Speaker 3: Doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of in Indianapolis.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate you taking the time to be with us

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Speaker 3: more to get to keep it here.

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Speaker 2: Guys, I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today