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Speaker 1: So we're told by the President of the United States

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Speaker 1: that Iran wants to make a deal. They always want

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Speaker 1: to make a deal. You can never ever count them out.

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Speaker 1: They want to make a deal. As the President once

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Speaker 1: said it was in a post on Twitter years ago.

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Speaker 1: Iran never won a war, never lost a negotiation. This

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Speaker 1: is who they are. Tony Katz, Tony Kats today, great

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Speaker 1: to be with you. For days, we have not engaged

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Speaker 1: at a bombing raid on Iran. They're asking us not to.

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Speaker 1: They're begging to make a deal. We're talking at the

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Speaker 1: highest levels. It was Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz

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Speaker 1: saying things are going well. And then last night it

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Speaker 1: was Sentcom that announced that the Iranian regime lobbed missiles

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Speaker 1: at a US base. At five forty five pm Eastern Time,

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Speaker 1: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Core forces launched multiple ballistic missiles

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Speaker 1: from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on US forces

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Speaker 1: based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted.

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Speaker 1: US forces remained vigilant and at a high state of readiness.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how anything is a surprise from the

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Speaker 1: Iranians at this moment. Major Mike Lyons joined US right

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Speaker 1: now retired United States Army military analyst West point Man.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the basic serp. What is it that

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Speaker 1: the Iranians attempted to do yesterday evening.

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Speaker 2: I think they sent a couple of messages they sent.

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Speaker 2: The first one was that they still have capability in

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Speaker 2: order to fire a few missiles at you know, not

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Speaker 2: at scale, but a few missiles at precise targets. I mean,

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Speaker 2: getting likely intel from China or from Russia or somebody else.

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Speaker 2: I think that they're getting held from somebody. And they

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Speaker 2: did it during the funeral for Lindsey Graham, which again

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Speaker 2: sends another message to the president. The United States did

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Speaker 2: not decide to attack Iran when they were having their

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Speaker 2: funeral for komen A. So, you know, it just shows

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Speaker 2: you the people that we're dealing with, and you know

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Speaker 2: we still you know, reading Insue Study of War this

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Speaker 2: morning was interesting because they brought up the different factions

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Speaker 2: that are existing and're on right now. And there are

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Speaker 2: factions there that want to make a deal with the US.

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Speaker 2: They don't want to get bombed into submission, and they're

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Speaker 2: trying to do something. But the IRGC and some of

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Speaker 2: the hardliners still have decentralized that those military assets, and

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Speaker 2: they still have capability that can reach out and strike Jordan,

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Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and those Gulf states that are there

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Speaker 2: and potentially target US assets in the region.

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Speaker 1: So as we we look at what they did this bombing,

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Speaker 1: and you talk about capability, and I agree with you

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Speaker 1: that is something to note that they still have the missiles,

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Speaker 1: but in doing so they let us know that they can.

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Speaker 1: Is that as a matter of strategy, one doesn't do

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Speaker 1: something unless they have to do it. So there's a

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Speaker 1: question of purpose here. Was the purpose here to show

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Speaker 1: strength and force to others within the Iranian leadership? Or

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Speaker 1: was this a lashing out they're working on last gasp.

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Speaker 1: If they can't get the other nations around them to

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Speaker 1: push back against the United States, they have nothing and

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Speaker 1: this is their only way they know to do it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is kind of a win by not losing. Right,

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Speaker 2: They're trying to run the clock out. They're trying to

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Speaker 2: spike the price of oil again, it was up unfortunately

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Speaker 2: the past few days, and they think if they can

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Speaker 2: put this kind of military pressure on the president, and

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Speaker 2: if one of those missiles got through and we had

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Speaker 2: casualties again, we're seeing reports of casualty rates that are

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Speaker 2: higher than have been reported before. A Foyer report made

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Speaker 2: that change recently, and so you know again, Ron is

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Speaker 2: just trying to survive. I you know again, there's other

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Speaker 2: reports that show that it's working. At the blockade plus

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Speaker 2: the sanctions, plus the military strikes are working. It's just

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Speaker 2: a matter of time. If I'd like to see us

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Speaker 2: go back to fourteen fifteen straight days of continuous military strikes,

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Speaker 2: taking out all we can, and then and then deciding

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk, then not just get taking a

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Speaker 2: phone call in the middle of it saying you know,

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Speaker 2: we want to make a deal. I don't think any

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Speaker 2: deal happens until we decide that we're going to make

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Speaker 2: a deal.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired to the United States

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Speaker 1: Army Military analyst Axios in their reporting that that came

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Speaker 1: out yesterday or was it this morning, saying that the

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Speaker 1: economic blockade is working very well, that there is talk

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Speaker 1: that the factions, the terrorist factions, has Blahamas, the IERGC

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Speaker 1: itself are not getting paid. Payments have been reduced, and

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Speaker 1: that this is working to keep that up the pressure,

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Speaker 1: and one could argue if that's what's working, you don't

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Speaker 1: actually need the bombings. So now I take it and

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Speaker 1: turn it the other way. Does this show that we

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Speaker 1: need the bombings or can the bombings be more strategic

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Speaker 1: to where the IRGC is located as opposed to what

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Speaker 1: we've been doing in the coastal areas.

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Speaker 2: You know, I think that the military assets accelerate that

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Speaker 2: process of getting them to the table, and they're just

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Speaker 2: human nature is involved with that. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: we do need to continuous go after them, and if anything,

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Speaker 2: if we use the military to do nothing more than

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Speaker 2: tease out where some of those mobile launch units are

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Speaker 2: for example, right, I think that we know that they

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Speaker 2: don't have many of them left, and we know that

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Speaker 2: they have capability to fire and scoot to kind of shoot, move, communicate,

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Speaker 2: and that still is what those military targets would be.

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Speaker 2: So I still believe that we don't declare any kind

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Speaker 2: of ceasefire until we're confident that there's really virtually a

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Speaker 2: minimal thread almost no threat whatsoever to the regional countries

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Speaker 2: that are there, and make sure that they can't do

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Speaker 2: anything more.

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Speaker 1: We talk about these missiles. You mentioned the idea of

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Speaker 1: a deal. I'm not somebody who believes the deal can

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Speaker 1: be made. There is no one to make a deal with.

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Speaker 1: Your point is that there are still factions that can

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Speaker 1: make the own that want to make a deal, but

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Speaker 1: we have these other factions that want to keep fighting.

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Speaker 1: How does one get the IRGC under control the Islamic

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Speaker 1: Revolutionary Guard core if in any way other than destroying them,

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Speaker 1: And can that be done from the air.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I hadn't seen it historically. It's we've never

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Speaker 2: done something like this just from the air. And we're

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Speaker 2: not sending two hundred thousand ground troops to Tehran anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: But we might not get regime total regime change. But

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Speaker 2: we've talked about before this idea of regime compliance. What

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Speaker 2: we have in Venezuela, for example. It is difficult to

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Speaker 2: say forty seven years there are well in the fabric

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Speaker 2: and the dye in the communities of everything going on

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Speaker 2: in Iran right now. But I think the Iranians are

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Speaker 2: you know, there's other wildcard factors that play here. The

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Speaker 2: Turks could factor in. The Kurds. We still haven't talked

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Speaker 2: about them, their capability if they decide to invade certain

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Speaker 2: portions of the South. Let's say they decide to pick

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Speaker 2: up a military mission in southern in the southern part

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Speaker 2: of Iran and help with the United States as ground force.

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Speaker 2: That would go a long way as well. So that

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Speaker 2: threatens it. That's there. And then we also haven't talked

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Speaker 2: about the Ukrainians. I think that no one you know

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Speaker 2: that we've opened up another front to the north. The

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Speaker 2: fact that the Ukrainians can fire missiles at Russian assets

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Speaker 2: a thousand kilometers away in the Caspian Sea and hit

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Speaker 2: Iranian ships. That is another really bad signal if you're

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Speaker 2: the Iranians. So now you've got enemies on three sides.

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Speaker 2: In the south with the United States, you have them

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Speaker 2: do eastern Israel, and now you have them to the

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Speaker 2: north with Ukraine. If they're going to start shooting at

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Speaker 2: Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea. So a lot of

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Speaker 2: pressure being still being put on them militarily.

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Speaker 1: The Ukraine conversation, the turn there is absolutely amazing. We've

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Speaker 1: discussed this in right depth. With their ability to make drones,

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Speaker 1: President Trump seeing a value in them. They've proven that

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Speaker 1: Zelenski has proven that he can learn and that he

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Speaker 1: can say listen, I'm okay with being the tip of

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Speaker 1: the spear here. All I'm asking is for some help

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Speaker 1: so we can continue this fight against this aggressor. It's

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Speaker 1: learning from Netanyahu, it's learning from these rallies how they

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Speaker 1: have approached the terrorists and the Islamis throughout the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: But let's go over three things that you just discussed.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the idea of Ukraine hitting from the north.

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Speaker 1: They want in this so they can further build their

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Speaker 1: ties closer to the United States. That they're taking advantage

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Speaker 1: of an opportunity, and I don't blame them. It's also

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Speaker 1: helpful to us. How much have the Russians been helping

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Speaker 1: the Iranians throughout all this and can will will it end?

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Speaker 1: Can the Russians afford to have ended?

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Speaker 2: I think I think it's been ministerial support as I've

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Speaker 2: as I understand, as I've researched and talked to folks

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Speaker 2: and looked at it. What I mean by that is

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Speaker 2: potentially intel. Some of the satellite shots maybe in that regard,

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Speaker 2: But the bottom line is all the Russian equipment that

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Speaker 2: the Uranians bought has been destroyed. Most of it's been destroyed.

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Speaker 2: The air defense system's destroyed. You're seeing reports Reuters is

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Speaker 2: reporting this morning that the Chinese are bringing hundreds of

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Speaker 2: manpads back into into Iran, coming over land somehow. Now

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Speaker 2: the Chinese are denying it. But this was a deal

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Speaker 2: that was made a few months ago, and that was

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Speaker 2: this was part of that m that OpEd I had

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Speaker 2: wrote that we can't let China in the game here.

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Speaker 2: The next MoU has got to be restrictive about what

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Speaker 2: Uranians can do about rebuilding their military. And so so

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Speaker 2: again when the Russians providing mysterial support, that's about it

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Speaker 2: they got. They got their hands full trying to defend

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Speaker 2: the navy. Again. Think about the Caspian Sea. There's there's

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Speaker 2: never been a NATO vehicle inside of that. The Caspian

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Speaker 2: Sea a landlocked sea. Uh that borders are on Kazakhstan, Russia,

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Speaker 2: all those other countries there. Russia thought it was a

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Speaker 2: complete safe haven. They could just sit there and lob

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Speaker 2: missiles into into Ukraine, use it as a way to

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Speaker 2: protect crimea and stuff. That's over. He who would have

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Speaker 2: thought five years ago that Ukrainians would have developed the

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Speaker 2: capability to shoot missiles over a thousand kilometers and hit

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Speaker 2: naval assets of Russia in the Caspian c not me.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analysts,

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Speaker 1: just to give a look here of the Caspian Sea.

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Speaker 1: This is an area where you've got Ukraine right there.

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Speaker 1: Caspian Sea is a far ways away, uh sir. But

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Speaker 1: the Caspian Sea Iran is to the south. That is

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Speaker 1: a long way away to be able to make a

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Speaker 1: hit as you're discussing. But Ukraine is able to make

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Speaker 1: that happen now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and and hit. So looking at the Iranians sending

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Speaker 2: Shahi drones and sending some of their technology into Russia,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure Russia is still pressuring them to do that.

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Speaker 2: There those ships are now vulnerable. And so in some ways,

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Speaker 2: Zolenski comes to d C meets with bb NET Yaho.

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Speaker 2: You saw that they had a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: of a glance at each other. And now you know,

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Speaker 2: as far as I'm concerned, Ukraine has joined this fight.

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Speaker 2: It was a pleasure.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't It wasn't an aggressive glance. It was it

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Speaker 1: was a conversation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the unspoken words about to combat, you know. Leaders Here,

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Speaker 2: I look at zelenz Key for where it started, for

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Speaker 2: where he is now is turning out is going to

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Speaker 2: go down history as saving that country and getting them

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Speaker 2: he just fired as Defense minister, ready to fire. He's

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Speaker 2: starting to try to put the people around him now

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Speaker 2: that you really trust to put a deal together. But

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Speaker 2: and again I wouldn't have never said this in the past,

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Speaker 2: but I'll say it now. I'm more than happy to

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Speaker 2: put Ukraine into NATO because they will be leading the

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Speaker 2: EDG clearly the edge of the spear, not only just

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Speaker 2: on the defense side of things, but just the way

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Speaker 2: they innovate in their technology alone. Look, they're going to

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Speaker 2: They've got licenses now to make patriots right, so when

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Speaker 2: they get the rare rest minerals, they'll have patriots up

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Speaker 2: and running in six months in that country and we

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Speaker 2: won't have to sell them a single patriot missige.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I hate having to disagree with you publicly, but man,

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Speaker 1: do I not want Ukraine in NATO at all. We're

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Speaker 1: going to save that conversation for another day. I only

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Speaker 1: have about a minute, So I do have a question

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Speaker 1: about the koords and will they need to be armed,

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Speaker 1: but I'm going to hold that for another day as well.

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Speaker 1: I want to get into the missiles that were shot

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Speaker 1: and the idea of surprise was the United States really

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Speaker 1: caught off guard by missiles heading their way towards Jordan,

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Speaker 1: towards military bases and American assets, whether it's in Jordan

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Speaker 1: or other parts of the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: No, the fact of the matter is they are intercepted.

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Speaker 2: If none of them were intercepted, then we'd be caught

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Speaker 2: off guard. The question is they are coming from higher

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Speaker 2: altitudes and it's more difficult to shoot out missiles that

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Speaker 2: are coming at hyperstonic speeds from different altitudes, and that's

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Speaker 2: normally how these attacks go. They come in ways with

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Speaker 2: drones and different things. So no, but if we were

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Speaker 2: caught off guard, some of those missiles would have got through,

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Speaker 2: it would have been a disaster. But again, they're staying

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Speaker 2: on their toes and they're making sure that their defense

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Speaker 2: platforms are working there.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analyst. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time to be with us. We

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Speaker 1: got a lot more show to get to keep it here.

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Speaker 1: This is Tony Katz today,