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Speaker 1: American consumers, plain and simple. Trump would have you believe

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Speaker 1: it's the biggest deal ever. That's his words, Dangley, two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollars of new energy purchases and

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Speaker 1: more in new investments. They're just one heat cup. It's fake.

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Speaker 1: Even Today's Wall Street Journal has pierced this miasma of distortion.

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Speaker 2: You know, every time you hear Chuck Schumer talk, you

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Speaker 2: have to wonder, my god, his staff has to hear

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Speaker 2: that every day.

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Speaker 3: That's rough, very rough. Tony Katz, good to be with you.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Mattwell joins as economist at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 2: Senator Schumer is talking about the trade deal with the EU.

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Speaker 2: It's fake, it's not real. Well, it's clearly real. The

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Speaker 2: question is how much of this stuff would have come anyway,

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Speaker 2: deals on energy and deals on on buying military hardware.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't this going to be purchased no matter what? But

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Speaker 2: maybe the story here is that it got announced as

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Speaker 2: a deal, which certainly has put the European Union on

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Speaker 2: its heels, saying, my gosh, how could we have let

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Speaker 2: this happen with a tariff of fifteen percent of our

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Speaker 2: goods and no tariff on the vast majority of American goods.

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Speaker 2: But in the end, the question before us is what

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Speaker 2: do we get out of it? And how do we

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Speaker 2: know that it's happening. So let's start a doctor Matt Will,

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Speaker 2: economist at the University of Indianapolis. Where we start, which

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Speaker 2: is you hear about this story from the about this

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Speaker 2: trade deal with the EU. We've heard about other trade

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Speaker 2: deals as well, it's the UK or Japan, et cetera.

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Speaker 3: What say you, Well, first of all, let's start with

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Speaker 3: the terms.

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Speaker 4: I like what I'm hearing as far as the terms,

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Speaker 4: and we've been saying forever we just need clarity, we

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Speaker 4: need certainty, and we now know the framework. It's pretty

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Speaker 4: much going to be globally about a fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 4: percent tariff on all goods imported into the US. We're

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Speaker 4: going to have what we call trques, which is tariff

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Speaker 4: right quotas. That's what you just mentioned Tony about this.

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Speaker 4: They're going to buy all these things from US military

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Speaker 4: hardware and other things. That was maybe gonna happen anyway,

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Speaker 4: maybe not, because what it does is it creates a

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Speaker 4: zero for zero tariff, meaning that no tariffs on stuff

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Speaker 4: that goes back or forth in that category, which makes

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Speaker 4: our products more competitive. Our energy will be cheaper, our

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Speaker 4: military hardware will be cheaper. They're not going to go

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Speaker 4: to the UK, They're not going to go someplace else.

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Speaker 4: They're going to buy it from US. So that's a

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Speaker 4: really good thing. And they've agreed to invest in the USA.

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Speaker 4: So you know, Schumer is completely wrong. There's a lot

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Speaker 4: of good parts to this, and the most important thing

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Speaker 4: is Wall Street loves that there's certainty. They now can

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Speaker 4: say we can move forward. We know what the terms

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Speaker 4: are going to be. That's been the biggest issue so

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Speaker 4: far is the uncertainty, and now we have certainty.

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Speaker 2: So this certainty is predicated on them actually buying from

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Speaker 2: the US right markets are are going to be open

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Speaker 2: in there for the first time. Is it that they're

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Speaker 2: going to be buying or does a certainty come from

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Speaker 2: fifteen to twenty percent that's the tariff right now? Everybody

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Speaker 2: can budget if you will from that place.

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Speaker 3: It's both.

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Speaker 4: It's both of those things. We know the range of

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Speaker 4: the tariffs. It's not going to be thirty five fifty

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Speaker 4: two hundred percent. It's going to be fifteen to twenty

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Speaker 4: percent against for everyone in the world. That's a good thing,

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Speaker 4: and it makes our goods cheaper. It's not that they're

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Speaker 4: guaranteed to buy these things, Tony, But when you remove

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Speaker 4: all the trade barriers and all the tariffs, US goods

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Speaker 4: are going to be more affordable. So yes, they will

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Speaker 4: buy these things. If you're looking around to buy a gun,

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Speaker 4: and you can buy a gun a Burretta made in Italy,

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Speaker 4: or you can buy one made in the US. And

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Speaker 4: by the way, Bretta makesed guns in the US, and

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Speaker 4: the US made gun is cheaper, that's what you're going

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Speaker 4: to buy.

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Speaker 2: Talking to doctor Matt Will economists at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 2: that might be true in for example, the scenario that

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Speaker 2: you just laid forth.

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Speaker 3: But we are.

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Speaker 2: Saying that any good you buy outside of something made

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Speaker 2: in the US, and not every good is made in

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Speaker 2: the US, it's going to be fifteen to twenty percent higher.

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Speaker 3: Just deal with it. This is coming correct.

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Speaker 4: Oh yes, And in fact, you know I've been saying,

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Speaker 4: what all the good parts of these deals, they are

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Speaker 4: bad parts. There are losers in this. The losers are

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Speaker 4: any company that's a net importer. The loser is anything

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Speaker 4: that's made with steel or aluminum, and the biggest loser

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Speaker 4: is you and I. We're going to pay a fifteen

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Speaker 4: percent tariff, Tony, let me explain very clearly what that is.

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Speaker 4: That's a fifteen percent national sales tax. We've never had

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Speaker 4: that before. And people need to be ready because corporations

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Speaker 4: have been reporting earnings this week, they're not good, and

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Speaker 4: they've indicated they will pass along their price increases. Delant

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Speaker 4: has made a huge announcement yesterday about that.

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Speaker 3: Now, let's get into this because this has been right.

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Speaker 2: You've got Bill Maher saying, I can't believe the tariffs

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Speaker 2: are working a lot of people are talking very very

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Speaker 2: well about the tariff.

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Speaker 3: Trump was right about the tariffs.

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Speaker 2: The argument has been in a very rational way, tariffs

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Speaker 2: tactic fine tariffa's policy I oppose.

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Speaker 3: But the tariffs have not been passed through.

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Speaker 2: And whether it's it's General Motors, Toyota hosts people specifically

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Speaker 2: on the auto manufacturing, they're not passing the tariffs along,

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Speaker 2: and the economics would dictate that that cannot last for forever.

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Speaker 2: Are you saying that the dam is about to break

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Speaker 2: and we're about to see the price increases on the

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Speaker 2: things we can't avoid spending.

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Speaker 4: On absolutely and we've already seen it. Remember the last

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Speaker 4: inflation report we saw last week had an uptick inflation.

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Speaker 4: Yet today this week, okay, stillant has announced a two

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Speaker 4: point sixty five billion dollar cut in or loss, and

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Speaker 4: they warned we're going to increase car prices. Whirlpool, they

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Speaker 4: cut their dividend by fifty percent, Tony, that has not

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Speaker 4: happened in decades. And they make eighty percent of their

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Speaker 4: appliances in the US, and they said they're going to

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Speaker 4: have to increase costs. Novo, Nordis, Murk, they all cut

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Speaker 4: guidance these companies. Tony, you can't be a car maker

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Speaker 4: and lose money. So Lantas can't lose two and a

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Speaker 4: half billion dollars without increasing prices. You will see a

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Speaker 4: price increase just I don't know when, but it'll be soon.

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Speaker 2: But with Stilantis, we should at least admit that they

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Speaker 2: have not done the job in making the vehicles they

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Speaker 2: needed to over the last five years.

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Speaker 3: They will admit to that.

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Speaker 2: You had the massive fight between the dealers and the

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Speaker 2: CEO of Carlos I'm forgetting his last name right now,

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Speaker 2: where he eventually got pushed out because the cars were

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Speaker 2: not well made, and they weren't getting the backup at

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Speaker 2: the dealerships, and he basically said to the dealers I'm

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Speaker 2: in charge, You'll do what I tell you. So there

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Speaker 2: is a specific story there regarding maybe their own losses.

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Speaker 2: Those aren't not never situation. Is the tariff the reason

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Speaker 2: for the loss?

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Speaker 4: But Tony, you said it perfectly, and we talked about

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Speaker 4: this on one of your shows before. If we create

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Speaker 4: a tariff to protect a company like Stilantis or like Whirulepool,

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Speaker 4: does that make them a better company. Whirlpool's market share

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Speaker 4: went from forty two percent down to thirty two percent

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Speaker 4: last year. They had disastrous financial results reported this week.

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Speaker 4: And we're gonna tariff to protect Whirlpool from competition. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna tariff to protect the domestic Stilantis when they're a

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Speaker 4: bad company. Tariffs aren't going to make a bad company

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Speaker 4: into a good company. It's just going to make them pain.

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Speaker 2: Prolonged talking to doctor Matt Will, economists at the University

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Speaker 2: of Indianapolis. Now we have these deals in place, everything

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Speaker 2: to me, all roads leads to a lead to what

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Speaker 2: happens to a deal with China. I had said, you

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Speaker 2: need Japan, you need Vietnam, you need South Korea, you

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Speaker 2: need India, you need of those deals set until you

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Speaker 2: see a pressure point on China. But China has to

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Speaker 2: be paying attention to what it is they're seeing. Are

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Speaker 2: they trying to maneuver for a better deal, Are they

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Speaker 2: trying to maneuver for any deal? Or are they still

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Speaker 2: full steam ahead not worrying about what happens with the US.

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Speaker 4: I think they're full steam ahead, Tony. But China is

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Speaker 4: Can I say, a very technical nerdy, a professional would stupid?

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Speaker 3: Ah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that you might want to write that down and

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Speaker 4: look it up on Google. This we just found out

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Speaker 4: this week. India now exports more apple products to the

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Speaker 4: United States than China. Their exports are up two hundred

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Speaker 4: and forty percent. I see the world shifting away from China.

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Speaker 4: We've talked about this on your show before, that India

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Speaker 4: is in Bangladesh and Vietnam, these other places are starting

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Speaker 4: to take China's business. So yeah, China, they're probably walking

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Speaker 4: along thinking everything's going to be fine. Look around, Say

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Speaker 4: where'd all the businesses go?

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Speaker 3: The the India being up?

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Speaker 2: As China responded to this, at all of they look

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Speaker 2: to reducing the costs of of their of their production

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Speaker 2: or anything else.

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Speaker 4: No, No, that's that's That's why I call it pure stupidity.

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Speaker 4: They have not reacted to this. And really they're in

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Speaker 4: the cheap goods market. Other than making things like you know,

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Speaker 4: the iPhones and apple products, they mostly make the cheap

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Speaker 4: good products. They make the chotskys, they make the low,

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Speaker 4: low value items. So you know, they're just neander and

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Speaker 4: along getting eaten up by the competition. They're in a recession.

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Speaker 4: We all know this.

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Speaker 1: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I think China may be a bystanderd at the end

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Speaker 4: of the day.

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Speaker 2: China's bystander is certainly an interesting topic. Doctor Mattwell, economist

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Speaker 2: at the University of Indianapolis. I appreciate you and the conversation.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious to see how they'll move. But the the

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Speaker 2: idea that they'll simply accept that their dollars will be

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Speaker 2: lost to people like India and they'll just take it,

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Speaker 2: that seems to me to be a very, very far stretch.

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Speaker 3: Now. One of the things that we're not contemplating.

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Speaker 2: Here is what if they don't have an option, which

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Speaker 2: is to say, the weakness in China has already occurred.

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Speaker 2: This goes back to the whole idea of the population bomb,

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Speaker 2: where if you take a look at their population, they

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Speaker 2: are set to lose eight hundred million people over the

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Speaker 2: next hundred years. The one China policy decimated them. You

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Speaker 2: have an aging population, you have people not even having

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Speaker 2: children now, never mind getting married or anything like that,

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Speaker 2: and you'd simply by people dying, you're going to lose population.

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Speaker 3: You're not replenishing the population. That's what's happening. And so

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Speaker 3: that's been talked about this population bust, if you will, explosion, population.

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Speaker 2: Bomb, however you want to describe it. And then somebody

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Speaker 2: else said, the problem is is that their numbers don't

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Speaker 2: make any sense. They were arguing they were over a

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Speaker 2: billion people X number of years ago, but we know

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Speaker 2: about their birth rates and they argue they still have

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Speaker 2: a larger population than India. We know what India's birth

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Speaker 2: rate is, and simply, if you take a look at

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Speaker 2: the math, it's not possible that China has this population. Now,

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Speaker 2: the birth rate was sixteen point seventy five, that is

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Speaker 2: a three point seven four percent increase from twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: For twenty twenty five, it's sixteen point five five, So

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Speaker 2: that was twenty twenty four one point one nine percent

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Speaker 2: decline from twenty twenty four. So that's the number of

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Speaker 2: births per one thousand in population, right, So you can

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Speaker 2: argue that their birth rate has gone down own considerably

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Speaker 2: since the nineteen fifties. But you could also argue that

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Speaker 2: as a quality of light things get better. That often happens.

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Speaker 2: You see birth rates go down all over the place.

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Speaker 2: You see this in a number of places. But if

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Speaker 2: we were talking about China's birth rate, and I'm not

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Speaker 2: saying that we are through this problem in the United States,

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Speaker 2: We've got this problem in the United States. Well, the

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Speaker 2: Chinese birth rate they claim in twenty twenty four was

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Speaker 2: ten point four eight maybe, but in the year before

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Speaker 2: that it was six point thirty nine. The point becomes,

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Speaker 2: first of all, China lies about everything, absolutely everything. That

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Speaker 2: if you just take a look at birth rate to

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Speaker 2: birth rate, India's got a bigger birth rate. In twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty the birth rate in India was sixteen point seventy four.

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Speaker 2: In China it was eight point five two per thousand.

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Speaker 2: So the point becomes, what if this population explosion bomb

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Speaker 2: for China isn't what's coming.

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Speaker 3: What if it's already here. What if it already exists.

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Speaker 2: And they are already losing population and the losing of

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Speaker 2: these jobs is well insignificant because they don't have the

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Speaker 2: people to do the jobs anyway. What if that's already coming,

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Speaker 2: already happening. So when we talk about this recession in China,

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Speaker 2: that is true. But since China lies about everything, the

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Speaker 2: communists lie about everything, I tend to ask myself, what

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Speaker 2: if it's far worse, far worse than imagine, far worse

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Speaker 2: than understood. What if it's already happening and some things

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Speaker 2: they know they're going to lose because they were going

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Speaker 2: to lose it anyway, and they can't fight certain fights

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Speaker 2: because they're gonna have to fight other fights.

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Speaker 3: That's that is a thought that could keep me up

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Speaker 3: at night.

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Speaker 2: But it's interesting, the numbers, the data, it's all. It's

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Speaker 2: all very very interesting stuff. Meanwhile, let's see if these

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Speaker 2: trade deals do work out for US.

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Speaker 3: I hope they do.

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Speaker 4: Not.

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Speaker 2: Everything about them says they will. But one thing at

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Speaker 2: a time. I'm Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today,