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Speaker 1: Line from vall Hartband and the Crossroads of America. It's

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz today. It's about the oil. I just want

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Speaker 1: to say for the.

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Speaker 2: Record, it's always about the oil.

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Speaker 3: Is there even anything remotely new to this idea? Tony Kats,

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Speaker 3: Tony Kats today. Good to be here, Good to be

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Speaker 3: with you. The question is is it about us having it?

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Speaker 2: Or is it about them?

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Speaker 3: Not? People think linearly, they think in. It's not literally,

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Speaker 3: they think in just one one kind of phrasing.

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Speaker 2: The best way to say that, they don't think outside

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Speaker 2: the box. What's the best way to say that?

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Speaker 3: They can't see the whole board. I will tell you

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Speaker 3: there are moments where you don't see it, the moments

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Speaker 3: where you're like, oh, man, I did not see that coming.

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Speaker 2: Oh I did not see around that corner.

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Speaker 3: That's true because when we are in our jobs and

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Speaker 3: we are in our lives, our families, etc. We're thinking

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Speaker 3: about the things we're thinking about, and we're not making

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Speaker 3: other considerations.

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Speaker 2: When we talk about the level of misdirection.

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Speaker 3: For example, from the Pentagon in the bombing of the

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Speaker 3: nuclear facilities, they send B two bombers out and they

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Speaker 3: had a whole another series of B two bombers going

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Speaker 3: that misdirection was amazing, And we don't think like that

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Speaker 3: because it is not our job.

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Speaker 2: You think like that in our workplace.

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Speaker 3: Maybe in the things that we do, we can see

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Speaker 3: around the corner because we've had the experience of doing so, well,

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Speaker 3: that's just it. When you don't have the experience of

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Speaker 3: doing so, when you don't have the ability to engage

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Speaker 3: that institutional knowledge, well, sometimes you miss things and you're

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Speaker 3: sometimes surprised by things like why didn't I think of that?

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Speaker 3: I said the other day, and I say it now.

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Speaker 3: I am thankful we have adults back in charge of

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Speaker 3: the Pentagon.

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Speaker 2: Because we do. We don't have people concerned with what

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Speaker 2: your DEI training is.

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Speaker 3: We have made a statement we are about killing the

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Speaker 3: enemy until the enemy is dead. That's what we do

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Speaker 3: with this military. This military is not here to look

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Speaker 3: good in a uniform. It is there to do the

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Speaker 3: job when the job needs to be done. This seems

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Speaker 3: to offend some people. Luckily for us, we don't actually

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Speaker 3: spend too much time caring about those people.

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Speaker 2: We care about the best of our.

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Speaker 3: Ability destroying the enemy with the least amount of damage

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Speaker 3: to us. We've lost six brave Americans so far in

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Speaker 3: this attack on Iran, and it's horrifying. And I'm here

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Speaker 3: to tell you that the left is going to put

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Speaker 3: up counters of lives lost, no counter for the thirteen

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Speaker 3: loss to Abby Gate in Afghanistan. I can point to

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Speaker 3: you to a million places where they will not notice

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Speaker 3: the lives lost. I'm not going to pretend to not

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Speaker 3: notice because I favor an administration the people who do that, well,

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Speaker 3: I favor this, so I won't look at that, or

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Speaker 3: I don't favor that, so I will look at it.

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Speaker 3: That kind of partisan crap when it comes to the

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Speaker 3: lives of American soldiers has no place in our society.

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Speaker 3: And the people who do that, whether they're on the

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Speaker 3: left or the right, should be pushed to the side.

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Speaker 3: They're disgusting, despicable, low people. To hell with them. We

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Speaker 3: remember those who gave all for us, regardless of our

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Speaker 3: political posture. But this is about the idea of the misdirection,

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Speaker 3: and really about the idea of what is it we're after,

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Speaker 3: What is it that's actually trying to get done here,

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Speaker 3: What is it that we're accomplishing, and is it indeed

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Speaker 3: possible to accomplish two tasks at once do I believe

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Speaker 3: we should have taken out the Iranian regime? Absolutely? And

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Speaker 3: twice on Sunday. If you had asked me this six

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Speaker 3: months ago, I would have said yes. If you ask me,

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Speaker 3: do I believe we should put boots on the ground,

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Speaker 3: I would say to you that's always my problem. But

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you crack the IRGC without doing so.

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Speaker 3: As a matter of fact, I believe I said those words.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how it's done. Certainly you have President

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Speaker 3: Trump with the threat to the Islamic Revolutionary guardcore surrender,

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Speaker 3: laid on your weapons. You've got immunity, nothing will happen

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Speaker 3: to you. But if you don't, we're gonna kill you.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how you do that from the air.

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Speaker 3: It has to be done hand to hand. What is

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Speaker 3: the expression? In the end, all war comes down to

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Speaker 3: the bowie knife, comes down to the knife. It comes

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Speaker 3: down to that, one on one in so many ways,

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Speaker 3: how do you crack them without.

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Speaker 2: Troops on the ground.

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Speaker 3: And then we're having a conversation about troops on the ground,

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Speaker 3: which is why I really do think it is very

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Speaker 3: okay for Americans to be discussing what's happening and do.

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Speaker 2: We want it or not want it?

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Speaker 3: Me? I do, And then I dismiss, of course the

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Speaker 3: people who say, well then why don't you enlist? That

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Speaker 3: is not an argument. That is the argument of silly

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Speaker 3: people who don't want to have debate. I don't think

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Speaker 3: any of this should be done for light or transient

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Speaker 3: causes or reasons. I don't think these moments are.

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Speaker 2: But this is the.

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Speaker 3: Conversation about, you know, taking out the regime. Taking out

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Speaker 3: this regime I think is a good thing. Do I

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Speaker 3: think it was right to take out Nicholas Maduro? I

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Speaker 3: have no issue with taking out Nicholas Maduro. I'm only

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Speaker 3: bothered we haven't taken out the regime. And I don't

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Speaker 3: think leaving Delcia Rodriguez or anybody else there is valuable

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Speaker 3: to us or to the Venezuelan people, and does not

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Speaker 3: help us with oil.

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Speaker 2: By any stretch. But it could be this is.

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Speaker 3: What you have to do now, and put yourself in

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Speaker 3: a position to get the right people in place to

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Speaker 3: then make the next changes. Again, we think I shouldn't

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Speaker 3: say it's all of we, the general populace. How about

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Speaker 3: that the general populace looks at this and says, well,

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Speaker 3: just fix it.

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Speaker 2: These things take time. That's very frustrated.

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Speaker 3: But once you realize, as we discussed yesterday, that you

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Speaker 3: now have control of Venezuela in a facto sense and

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Speaker 3: taken out the leadership of Iran, you have now taken

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Speaker 3: control of a lot of oil. Now, this is the

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Speaker 3: way the left is going to paint it. They're going

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Speaker 3: to paint it as the idea of oh, sure, this

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Speaker 3: is a war for oil. Look what America is doing

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Speaker 3: just so they can have control of the oil. Well,

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Speaker 3: better we have control of it than the Iranian regime

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Speaker 3: that tortures at citizens and throw throws gay people off

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Speaker 3: of rooftops.

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Speaker 2: Better us than them.

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Speaker 3: But what gets forgotten is that if we have it,

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Speaker 3: other people don't have it. And we discussed this yesterday

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Speaker 3: that once you take a look at Venezuela and when

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Speaker 3: you seek, once you take a look at Iran, you

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Speaker 3: realize the people people or hit hardest are the communist Chinese,

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Speaker 3: which utilize the ghost ships run by the Russians taking

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Speaker 3: Venezuelan oil out of the country and then transferring it

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Speaker 3: into Chinese tankers then to Chinese ports. You have eliminated

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Speaker 3: a massive supply of their oil. We know that the

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Speaker 3: Cubans are already feeling it. They don't get any oil

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Speaker 3: from Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: So therefore.

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Speaker 3: They can't refuels, ships, boats, everything else.

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Speaker 2: They can't do it. When you take control.

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Speaker 3: Of the oil out of Iran, that is a lot

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Speaker 3: of oil going to China that no longer does this

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Speaker 3: very very thirsty nation of China.

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Speaker 2: That leaves China turning to Russia.

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Speaker 3: It's the only other place that they can go, and

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Speaker 3: certainly they already go there. But what it really does

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Speaker 3: is forces China onto the market, forces them to spend

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Speaker 3: much greater.

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Speaker 2: Dollars in order to get the oil.

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Speaker 3: And they have to compete for it like everybody else,

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Speaker 3: which brings us to this article from Politico. Five charts

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Speaker 3: show China's oil dilemma after US strikes.

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Speaker 2: No kidding, thanks for coming to the party, Politico. We

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Speaker 2: appreciate it.

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Speaker 3: They have a series of charts here about the amount

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Speaker 3: of Venezuelan and Iranian oil that goes to China. Venezuelan

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Speaker 3: oil was upwards of sixty percent, and I climb that

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Speaker 3: way since really twenty nineteen Iranian oil seven point two percent.

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Speaker 3: Because Iranian oil has all the sanctions on it and

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Speaker 3: there's only one buyer of it. Seventeen percent of the

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Speaker 3: oil that came into China came from Venezuela and Iran

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Speaker 3: last year, that's seventeen percent. So what happens when a

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Speaker 3: fifth of your oil is now gone? What happens to

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Speaker 3: that moment? They get one and a half million barrels

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Speaker 3: from Saudi Arabia, one point four million from Iran, then

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Speaker 3: they get one point two from Russia, one point two

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Speaker 3: from Iraq, about a million from Brazil. Then it goes

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Speaker 3: down there Oman, the UAE and Gola, Kuwait, Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: What do you do?

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Speaker 3: What do you do?

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Speaker 2: How do you function? After that?

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Speaker 3: Now, it should be noted you take a look at

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Speaker 3: a map that the vast majority of Asian continents, Asian continents,

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Speaker 3: Asian countries, the subcontinent are reliance on oil that comes

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Speaker 3: out of the Straits of Hormuz. That is that little

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Speaker 3: hook there off of Iran. And Iran's plan right now

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Speaker 3: is to figure out how to disrupt the Straits of

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Speaker 3: Hormuz to keep oil from flowing out of the Persian Gulf.

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Speaker 2: Right how do they disrupt that?

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Speaker 3: And the answer is you take as many boats as

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Speaker 3: you can and you sink them right there to make

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Speaker 3: it unpassable. That's how you engage disruption. And that's a

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Speaker 3: little bit of what's shaking the oil markets about how

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Speaker 3: that will affect things. But a lot of nations are

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Speaker 3: getting their oil imports through this area. So yes, this

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Speaker 3: war has the ability to shake things up for a

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Speaker 3: lot of people.

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Speaker 2: But when twenty percent of your.

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Speaker 3: Oil comes from these two players, let's not think it

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Speaker 3: doesn't have an effect. Well, Tony, what about oil that

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Speaker 3: goes to South Korean, oil that goes to Japan, what

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Speaker 3: happens there? Well, you're right, they could easily be affected

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Speaker 3: in their allies, and maybe we can provide them some help.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a lot easier for Japan and South

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Speaker 3: Korea to get oil from let's say Venezuela, considering they're

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Speaker 3: our ally and we control the thing.

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Speaker 2: That it will for China.

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Speaker 3: This leads us to another point, which is people saying, well,

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Speaker 3: great now China can't get the oil, but it's going

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Speaker 3: to increase our gas prices, and I don't want to

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Speaker 3: pay more for gas prices.

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Speaker 2: I don't disagree.

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Speaker 1: There.

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Speaker 3: And this has been a question that has gone on

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Speaker 3: on other subjects. If we in the United States entered recession,

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Speaker 3: people would be angry.

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Speaker 2: But we could weather it.

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Speaker 3: Right, people would be angry, but we would weather it.

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Speaker 3: We can weather that storm. And you're not going to

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Speaker 3: see aggressive protests. You're going to see movement in a

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Speaker 3: ballot box, but not aggressive protests. If the communists, the

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Speaker 3: Communist Chinese Party enters recession, how do they handle such

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Speaker 3: a thing. They promised their people this, and the communism

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Speaker 3: will give you that. And we promised them this, and

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Speaker 3: you promise them that. Now you enter recession, they're going

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Speaker 3: to manipulate the yuon. They're going to manipulate that. They're

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Speaker 3: going to reduce the ability of people to do X,

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Speaker 3: y and z. And those people have a tendency when

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Speaker 3: they realize they've been sold to bill of goods, like

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Speaker 3: any person would, they get a little upity. We keep

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Speaker 3: forgetting that while indeed China will utilize any violent tactic

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Speaker 3: it can to put down any type of rebellion, the

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Speaker 3: idea of disruption through that protest is far greater a

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Speaker 3: possibility in China than it is in the United States.

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Speaker 3: And I know we can point to the George Floyd riots.

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Speaker 3: This is what happens when you don't put down the rioting.

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Speaker 3: I am saying that in the vast majority of the country,

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Speaker 3: you won't see that because of gas prices, you won't.

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Speaker 3: But when a nation that this is a fifth of

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Speaker 3: its oil is not able.

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Speaker 2: To produce and therefore there are no jobs.

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Speaker 3: And therefore the manufacturing is even further slowed, even though

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Speaker 3: it was already slowed because of what they did to

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Speaker 3: themselves to COVID.

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Speaker 2: Right, COVID.

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Speaker 3: Now we got to lock everybody down and everything else,

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Speaker 3: and now you can't even get the manufacturing back. Now

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Speaker 3: people don't have jobs. See we're inconvenienced. They lose jobs.

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Speaker 2: It's different.

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Speaker 3: So we take a look at what is going on

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Speaker 3: in China, we take a look at the moves from

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Speaker 3: the United States on Venezuela and Iran. You realize it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be a very interesting play. Anything that destabilizes the communists,

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Speaker 3: I'm cool with.

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Speaker 2: I'm Tony Kats and this is Tony Kats today. Why

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Speaker 2: from the Hartlier yea I