1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,200 Speaker 1: So how confident are you in the economy? 2 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:02,759 Speaker 2: Hmmm. 3 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: It's interesting because confidence in the company it fell to 4 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: its lowest level in twelve years, according to the Conference Board. 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: And people are still buying stuff though. 6 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is a this is a common metric 7 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 2: that we look at a lot. It's consumer confidence and 8 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 2: how it says. Now, you got to keep in mind 9 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 2: when they do this survey and they ask about it, 10 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 2: this is strictly the way Americans feel. 11 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: Oh, how you feed. 12 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 2: There's no data associated with this other than their individual responses. 13 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 2: They're not correlating this with wages and inflation and GDP. 14 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,880 Speaker 2: They're just asking actual numbers, right, It's just asking people 15 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 2: how confident are you in the US economy? And it's 16 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 2: it's taken a big dip. And we talked a little 17 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 2: bit about this because it was a different story yesterday 18 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,839 Speaker 2: or Monday that you know, there is this split that 19 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 2: is happening. If you are primarily driving your wealth via capital, 20 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: if you now owned a house for the last ten years, 21 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 2: if you've owned stock for the last ten years, if 22 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 2: you own a small business, things are probably looking great 23 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 2: because the value of assets have gone through the roof. Jeez. 24 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: If you've owned gold or silver. We talked about that yesterday, 25 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 2: the price of gold and silver through the roof. So 26 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 2: if you've owned things for a good bit of time 27 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,759 Speaker 2: the last ten or twenty years, things probably feel pretty 28 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: good for you because those assets have all gone up 29 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 2: in value, and a lot of times significantly up in value. 30 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,639 Speaker 2: But most Americans, there's certainly a lot of Americans don't 31 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: have a ton of assets, and they're relying on their 32 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: paycheck to create that value from and so I think 33 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 2: that's where we're seeing this kind of uneven and hollow 34 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 2: economic growth. The GDP numbers have been fantastic. They revised 35 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 2: them for third quarter. I think it was like four 36 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 2: point five percent. We're getting ready for the fourth quarter 37 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: GDP numbers to come out. All the economists are saying 38 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 2: it's going to be well over five percent, maybe five 39 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:51,400 Speaker 2: and a half percent. So you're going to keep hearing 40 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 2: this story about how the economy is great because the 41 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 2: GDP is fantastic and the trade deficit has gone down. 42 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: But the fact of the matter is there are a 43 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 2: lot of Americans that are just struggling every single day 44 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 2: to pay their bills, and that's where we're seeing the 45 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 2: results of this plunging consumer confidence. 46 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: The Consumer Confidence Index, it dropped nine point seven points. 47 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: It went to eighty four and a half in January, 48 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: and it was down from ninety four point two in December. 49 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 1: Twenty three percent of the respondent said jobs are plentiful, 50 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,080 Speaker 1: but it's down. And one of the reasons why they're 51 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: claiming they're not confident is inflation, gas and grocery costs, tariffs, politics, 52 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 1: the labor market, health insurance, and war. They cited all 53 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 1: of those things as key concern The economists said that 54 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: consumer pessimism may reflect fears of AI related job losses. Yeah, 55 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: if you're despite the strong GDP growth. 56 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 2: If you're an average American and you look at inflation 57 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 2: and grocery bills and healthcare costs and the job market 58 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 2: and property taxes, the average American is going to say, yeah, 59 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 2: I don't feel better off than I will before. So 60 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 2: it's not a surprise and it's not just pessimism. This 61 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: is real economic stress that a lot of American consumers 62 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 2: are sitting under, and it's showing up in this dramatic 63 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 2: drop in consumer confidence.