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Speaker 1: But what if I'm reading the whole situation about Disney wrong.

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Speaker 1: What if that when I take a look at the

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Speaker 1: CNBC reporting another reporting, they're telling me the more people

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Speaker 1: are going to theme parks, but theme parks are actually flat.

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Speaker 1: And what if I'm seeing that there's an increase in subscribers.

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Speaker 1: But maybe that's not telling the whole story. Because when

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Speaker 1: I saw this story about Disney, and I said, how

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Speaker 1: is it possible if the economy is having problems and

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Speaker 1: more people are going to Disney? And then how does

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Speaker 1: any of this relate to Trump's economic policies? Is there

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Speaker 1: actually some progress happening that we don't note? And then

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Speaker 1: you take a look that he's already made his nomination

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Speaker 1: to replace Jerome Powell with Kevin Walsh Warsh, which is

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Speaker 1: a plan that our own doctor Matt Will, has wanted

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Speaker 1: to happen for a long time. Now, Tony Katz, Tony

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Speaker 1: Katz today, good to be here, Good to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Matt Will joins me right now, economist at the

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Speaker 1: University of Indianapolis. We have talked often about Kevin Walsh

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Speaker 1: as being a possible selection as the next Shair and

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Speaker 1: what you have liked about him and discussed, is this

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Speaker 1: idea of removing things from the balance sheet? Talk to

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Speaker 1: me about the nomination and if he gets his way,

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Speaker 1: what will be the immediate difference between a Jerome Powell

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Speaker 1: led FED and a Kevin Walsh lead FED.

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Speaker 2: Well, first of all, the markets like this selection. Because

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Speaker 2: the markets reacted positively. The commodity prices plummeted gold, silver,

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Speaker 2: because the market believes we will now have control over inflation.

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Speaker 2: And this is how he's going to control inflation. I

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Speaker 2: love his formula. He's going to do two things. One,

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Speaker 2: he's going to cut interest rates. Now that's going to

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Speaker 2: cause inflation. People get nervous about that. But he will

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Speaker 2: combine it with selling the assets owned on the FED

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Speaker 2: balance sheet. He's going to sell treasury bonds, He's going

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Speaker 2: to sell mortgages, and when he does that, that will

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Speaker 2: pull cash out of the economy. That dual approach is

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Speaker 2: the ideal approach. That's the opposite of what Jerome Palell

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Speaker 2: was doing. Jerome pal said, no, no, we're going to

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Speaker 2: hold all these mortgages. We're going to hold all these

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Speaker 2: treasure We're going to keep all this cash floating in

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Speaker 2: the economy. And Kevin Warsh has said he's going to

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Speaker 2: do the opposite. So the market understands this. I realize

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Speaker 2: that's a complicated topic, but people need to understand. The

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Speaker 2: market's happy because he is going to control inflation. That

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Speaker 2: is the best news. It's going to be independent. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot of people in the Senate who are nervous

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Speaker 2: about this. They think he's not going to be independent

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Speaker 2: because he said, yes, he wants to cut rates like Trump.

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Speaker 2: But the people saying that are not knowledgeable. They don't understand.

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Speaker 2: He's got a too pronged approach, and the too pronged

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Speaker 2: approach is going to be successful as controlling inflation. The

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Speaker 2: market believes us. Why do we know the market believes

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Speaker 2: it because silver drop and gold drop. The market believes

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Speaker 2: he will cut inflation.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: So when we see that massive silver and gold drop down,

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Speaker 1: it's that the wah pick brings down inflation, which tells

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Speaker 1: us that inflation has indeed still been there. Isn't that

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Speaker 1: kind of a proof of concept is the wrong word,

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Speaker 1: but a proof of our arguments. So where people have

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Speaker 1: been yelling at me for months, the inflation's down. Why

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Speaker 1: won't you admit it down where it was with Biden? Yes, gone, no.

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Speaker 1: So there's already the market saying that if you have

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Speaker 1: this new guy, everything.

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Speaker 3: On the inflation side will get better.

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Speaker 1: But don't those plans have to be implemented and don't

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Speaker 1: those plans take time?

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Speaker 2: Yes, they do take time, and it's going to take

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Speaker 2: some while to implement. But the market reacts to news instantly,

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Speaker 2: So as soon as something is known, a fact occurs,

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Speaker 2: a piece of information comes out, the market reacts. So

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Speaker 2: the fact that he is going to be the FED chair,

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Speaker 2: the market has reacted positively. So the market reacts to news.

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Speaker 2: So he doesn't have to do it yet, but we

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Speaker 2: know that he's going to do it because he has

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Speaker 2: indicated that he will, and he's been very emphatic about it,

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Speaker 2: which is why I support even though I got to

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Speaker 2: tell you, Tony, I wasn't a fan of his in

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Speaker 2: the past, because this is the guy who invented too

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Speaker 2: Big to Sail and yes, he's had a mea kolpa

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Speaker 2: on that, but he was the guy that did something

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Speaker 2: that you and I have said we don't like.

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Speaker 1: Let's move it off of Kevin Washing and get into

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Speaker 1: this conversation specifically about Disney. It was an interesting piece

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Speaker 1: over there at CNBC that the Disney stock was up

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Speaker 1: and it's being led by streaming and theme parks. And

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Speaker 1: I said, now, wait a second, how in the world

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Speaker 1: is anybody affording to take their family to Disney.

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Speaker 3: It's an outrageously expensive thing to do.

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Speaker 1: Never mind the fact that I was told that there

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Speaker 1: were people boycotting Disney and they're streaming for things that

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Speaker 1: they were putting on there, and how they ruined certain things,

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Speaker 1: and I guess that didn't hold.

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Speaker 3: Is often these things don't hold.

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Speaker 1: Ej Antni economist things that the issue regarding Disney has

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Speaker 1: to do with income disparity, that there are people who

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Speaker 1: have been making more money, the idea of the rich

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Speaker 1: are getting richer, and they're now spending their money. And

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Speaker 1: so it's not at any level of traditional blue collar worker.

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Speaker 1: It's mom and dad each making more than one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand a year who could afford to take their family

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Speaker 1: to Disney. First things First, you think the CNBC reporting

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Speaker 1: is right or wrong regarding Disney in the stock price, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I first.

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Speaker 2: Have to just fully disclose Tony that my student fund

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Speaker 2: that my students and I manage. We own Disney, and

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Speaker 2: we have voted to get rid of Disney, so we

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Speaker 2: haven't sold it yet, but we have voted to get

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Speaker 2: rid of it, and all this information is part of

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Speaker 2: the reason we made that decision. I think the CNBC

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Speaker 2: reporting initially is just reproducing the public relations release from Disney.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't have a deep dive. How do I know that?

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Speaker 2: Because the market's down five points on Disney. The stock

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Speaker 2: price has plummeted. That's a five percent drop at the

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Speaker 2: current price by one oh seven, So the market's says

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Speaker 2: this is not good news. And let me go into

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Speaker 2: a deep dive on the streaming Hulu. They've acquired Hulu,

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Speaker 2: and in their press release they said, oh, Hulu and

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Speaker 2: Disney Plus is up. Well, yeah, because Hulu is up,

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Speaker 2: they bought subscribers. You don't grow by buying subscribers when

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Speaker 2: you acquire a company like Hulu. So the fact is

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Speaker 2: Disney Plus was at one hundred and sixty one thousand

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Speaker 2: subscribers two years ago. The forecast that they will be

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Speaker 2: this year at one hundred and twenty seven thousand. One

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty seven thousand is lower than one hundred

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Speaker 2: and sixty one thousand, and ESPN Plus will be down

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Speaker 2: I mean million, I'm at million subscribers. I apologize. YESPN

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Speaker 2: Plus will be down from twenty six million to twenty

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Speaker 2: three million. So there, they cannot get people to buy

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Speaker 2: ESPN Plus. They can't get people to buy Disney Plus.

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Speaker 2: Hulu is the only thing they have that is of

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Speaker 2: any worth in their streaming service, but they lump it

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Speaker 2: all together to make you think their streaming is great

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Speaker 2: when they're streaming stinks. So I don't think their streaming

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Speaker 2: numbers are legitimate, and I think the market agrees with me.

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Speaker 1: So how does how in today's world could you possibly

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Speaker 1: have And that's one heck of an allegation that that's

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Speaker 1: that's being made there. And I hear you that you're

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Speaker 1: not making an allegation. This is your personal opinion. This

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Speaker 1: personal opinion and view has formed you and for your

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Speaker 1: students there at the University of Indianapolis, some ideas on

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Speaker 1: where to invest and not invest. How does one come

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Speaker 1: to the place where you don't trust a number because

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Speaker 1: you're not the only person who's ever invested and said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's actually what's happening and I have

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Speaker 1: reasons for it. Is it the idea of where they've

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Speaker 1: been in the past, Is it the idea of other

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Speaker 1: examples of over inflation by Disney?

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Speaker 3: Can you get a little more specific, Well.

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Speaker 2: Let me say that it's not my opinion. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I just gave you actual numbers as to what their

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Speaker 2: subscribers are and what they were. That's a fact. That's

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Speaker 2: nothing disputable about that. It's not an opinion. And if

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Speaker 2: I were to look at like their affiliate fees, so

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Speaker 2: the fees they get from affiliates for their networks, that's

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Speaker 2: down from it was about eleven point seven billion in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. At the end of this year, it's

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Speaker 2: going to be eight point five billion. I don't care

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Speaker 2: how you slice it. Eight point five is less than

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Speaker 2: eleven point seven billion. That's just a fact. So the

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Speaker 2: only thing they're doing well on their on their entertainment

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Speaker 2: side is direct to consumer. They are making money direct

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Speaker 2: to consumer. Why because they're selling all that Disney archive.

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Speaker 2: People are buying tons of Disney products. But it's true

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Speaker 2: their theme parks are up for the moment, that is true,

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Speaker 2: and maybe their theme parks will continue to grow. But

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Speaker 2: Tony that's you know, their theme parks, park experiences, you know,

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Speaker 2: ten and a half billion dollars of revenue. That's they

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Speaker 2: make more money on licensing their content. They make thirty

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Speaker 2: eight billion dollars a year licensing Disney. So yeah, okay,

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Speaker 2: they're up ten point five billion in theme parks. Correct,

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Speaker 2: good job. Okay, they had a billion dollar increase. That's

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Speaker 2: nothing compare to their overall revenue scheme. They're heavily into content,

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Speaker 2: they're heavily into streaming services, and those two areas they

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Speaker 2: need some improvement.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economists at the University of

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis before I let you go, my take on this

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Speaker 1: economy has been that these first six months of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six looked.

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Speaker 3: Very, very rough. They look like.

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Speaker 1: A kind of resetting of all, right, here's what Trump's doing.

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Speaker 1: You never know when a tariff is going to get

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Speaker 1: implement You never never know when a tariff is going

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Speaker 1: to get removed. That leads to a level of uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: And after this this spending season, this holiday spending season

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Speaker 1: where more was spent on luxury goods but less was

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Speaker 1: spent overall. As at least I've looked at the numbers.

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Speaker 1: I certainly could be wrong there, but more was spent

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Speaker 1: on luxury goods than everyday goods. It is continuing this

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Speaker 1: idea of not wage gap but income gap, this idea

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Speaker 1: of the K curve instead of you know, where the

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Speaker 1: rich are getting rich or the poor are getting poorer

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Speaker 1: and the middle class is shrinking. Although one could argue

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Speaker 1: that all wages are going up overall, just some of

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Speaker 1: faster than others. I have looked at these next six

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Speaker 1: months saying this is going to be rough, and it's

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Speaker 1: going into a midterm, and Trump needs a couple of

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Speaker 1: things to turn around to be able to show some

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Speaker 1: success on the economy, to get back some voters who

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Speaker 1: may have left and not be with him for the

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Speaker 1: mid term.

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Speaker 3: Is the pick of wash or is there are there.

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Speaker 1: Any moves that you see in the in the offing,

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Speaker 1: things that have already happened, that are going to show

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Speaker 1: a result that you think either work for the Republicans

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Speaker 1: or are going to continue to trend for the Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, that was a backhanded way of making me

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Speaker 2: predict the future. But I will do it, will I

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Speaker 2: will do it, and I will say this. I believe

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Speaker 2: in the analogy that I've used all along. It's a

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Speaker 2: boxing match where Trump is against Trump, and he makes

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Speaker 2: some good moves and he makes some bad moves. And

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Speaker 2: I think the worst decision is a great move, and

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Speaker 2: I believe it's going to lower prices going into the midterms.

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Speaker 2: So he's going to get lucky on that. If he

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Speaker 2: falls back to tariffs are beautiful, I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to hurt him because tariffs are not beautiful and they

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Speaker 2: harm the economy. As far as the luxury goods, I

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Speaker 2: got to tell you you've seen a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a blip. That is true. There's been a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a blip. But the leading indicator for this is

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Speaker 2: LVMH moet Hennessy. It's they own the brand names across

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Speaker 2: the board in luxury goods, and their revenue has declined

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Speaker 2: from eighty six billion to eighty four to eighty They

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Speaker 2: had a blip this year of up to eighty two,

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Speaker 2: but that's a blip. They are still on the downward trajectory,

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Speaker 2: so the luxury good market is still being hurt. I

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Speaker 2: don't know who's going to win the battle in Trump

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Speaker 2: versus Trump. I'm hoping that good Trump wins if he

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Speaker 2: cannot believe the terrors are beautiful and the sights to

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Speaker 2: stop using them as a weapon. I think this could

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Speaker 2: be a really good year, but I cannot predict what

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Speaker 2: he's going to do. If you can let me know.

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Speaker 1: Well, I only went with where where I hear things

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Speaker 1: anecdotally and what the numbers seem to be showing me.

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Speaker 1: So they don't show me that things are great. The

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Speaker 1: anecdotally in the discussion with business owners don't show me

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Speaker 1: that things are great. We talking about manufacturing numbers. They

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Speaker 1: don't show me this level of growth that I think

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Speaker 1: is necessary in the place is to be able to

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Speaker 1: have a strong economy, and it does. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to take much, Sir, for things to turn

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Speaker 1: around or for people to feel good. I have said,

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Speaker 1: gas prices have to keep coming down. You have to

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Speaker 1: be able to afford a stake to grill in your backyard,

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Speaker 1: and you have to be able to afford to take

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Speaker 1: your family out to dinner. You do those three things

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Speaker 1: and people start feeling good, and I think it'll show

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Speaker 1: in an election. That was That was my three. Do

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Speaker 1: you have your three or do you have an opinion

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Speaker 1: on what I just said?

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Speaker 2: Yes, I think you know. I gave you the positive

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Speaker 2: upside potential for Trump, but let me explain the absolute

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Speaker 2: downside horrendous, and that is the manufacturing. You hit the

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Speaker 2: nail on the head. Manufacturing has been shrinking. The report

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Speaker 2: In fact, you know, the report just came out today

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Speaker 2: and okay, ready for this. It reversed a ten month decline.

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Speaker 2: We now had a growth in manufacturing last month for

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Speaker 2: the first time in ten months. That's a good thing.

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Speaker 2: That's positive. At the same time, the prices were going

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Speaker 2: through the roof. They went I mean, the PMI report

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Speaker 2: came out and we had growth in manufacturing, we had

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Speaker 2: growth in new wars. It was a great report. So

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Speaker 2: I see some good news. But that's not a trend yet.

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Speaker 2: It's not a trend. We had ten months of shrinking

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Speaker 2: manufacturing because of tariffs. Have we turned the corner yet?

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Speaker 2: I hope we have, but I don't know for sure.

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Speaker 2: I know I didn't give you. I didn't give you

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Speaker 2: maybe a concrete reply to your question.

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Speaker 3: Tony, I assume you did.

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Speaker 1: You did it like some kind of politician. I see,

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Speaker 1: I see, you see where this friendship has gone. Doctor Mattwell, Economist,

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Speaker 1: University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate you taking the time. Moore's coming up on

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Speaker 3: Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today