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Speaker 1: So what am I supposed to do about this economy?

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Speaker 1: Because I take a look at precious metals and they

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Speaker 1: go up, and that's a hedge against inflation. I take

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Speaker 1: a look at prices and say they're still too high

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Speaker 1: in many places. Yet I see that GDP continues to

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Speaker 1: move upward. Are we hearing about four percent? And we've

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Speaker 1: got November prices even though the data was delayed at

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Speaker 1: two point seven for the CPI, that's below three percent

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Speaker 1: is inflation and check Tony Kats, Tony Kats today. Good

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Speaker 1: to be with you, doctor Mattwell, joins US economist at

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Speaker 1: the University of Indianapolis. I know that you're busy. You're

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Speaker 1: taking care of a bunch of things before the holidays,

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Speaker 1: but you made some time for us. I appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: You've taken a look at some of these numbers. It's

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Speaker 1: two point seven. It's even lower than three percent on

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Speaker 1: the core CPI. What does this tell you?

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Speaker 2: It tells me you should take the report, wodd it

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Speaker 2: up into a big piece of paper and thrown in

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Speaker 2: the trash. This is a worthless report. And here's why. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's two point seven year over year, but we don't

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Speaker 2: have October data. We don't have November Day. They just

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Speaker 2: took one big, massive, year over year piece of data.

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Speaker 2: There's so much missing information in this you can't draw

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Speaker 2: conclusion the market. The market had a big yawn. It

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Speaker 2: just said, oh oh, well, that's nice. Move along. There's

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Speaker 2: nothing to see here, and there's nothing to see here.

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Speaker 2: It is not a report that you can use. I

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Speaker 2: would ask everybody, don't rely on it when you're making decisions.

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Speaker 1: So why is that? Is it because the data is delayed,

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Speaker 1: or is it because the data is incomplete?

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Speaker 2: It's incomplete because they've decided they made a decision since

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Speaker 2: we last spoke that they're simply not going to try

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Speaker 2: to collect data for October November. They're just going to

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Speaker 2: skip it. They're not going to go back and recreate it.

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Speaker 2: So we're looking at simply year over year data. So

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Speaker 2: we're including way too much data from eleven twelve months ago,

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Speaker 2: and we're talking data that before Trump was president is

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Speaker 2: included in this data. The most important, which is the

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Speaker 2: most recent two months, it's just not in there. And

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Speaker 2: so that's unfortunate that they decided not to go back

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Speaker 2: and collect historical data. They're just going to exclude it.

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Speaker 2: For the future into statement.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will economists at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: what do you mean they're going to exclude it for

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Speaker 1: the future.

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Speaker 2: They're not even going to go back and recreate it.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to know if October was up or down,

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Speaker 2: if this November was up or down. It's possible that

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Speaker 2: the November data had a big jump or could have

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Speaker 2: been a big decrease. They simply aren't going to collect

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Speaker 2: the data. So we can't multiply by twelve. You and I, Tony,

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Speaker 2: we always multiply by twelve to get the annual number.

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Speaker 2: We can't do that now. So, and they're not even

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Speaker 2: going to collect the information to see what it was.

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Speaker 1: By the way these numbers sent the markets, not a

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Speaker 1: doubt one moment over four hundred could have been higher

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Speaker 1: by the time it closes the Nasdaq above a four hundred.

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Speaker 1: You're making the argument that these numbers are incomplete. I

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Speaker 1: asked you, Are you saying that that's political or should

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Speaker 1: I be looking at that as saying, well, that's the

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Speaker 1: reality of not doing things in real time because of

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Speaker 1: the shutdown.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's the second one. It's not doing things in

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Speaker 2: real time because of the shutdown is there's nothing political

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Speaker 2: about it. They simply aren't going to go back and

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Speaker 2: spend the labor and the manpower to get it done.

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Speaker 1: So, now we take a look at this economy. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to give you two numbers to think about right here, sir.

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Speaker 1: West Texas crude, this is the per barrel price is

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Speaker 1: at fifty six dollars and fifty cents. It's sticked up

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Speaker 1: a little bit today. And the Brent crude, which comes

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Speaker 1: out of the oceans, has just crossed over sixty dollars,

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Speaker 1: just over sixty dollars as I'm talking to you right now. Now,

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Speaker 1: these numbers have been in the mid sixties for a

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Speaker 1: long time and then they both dropped under sixty dollars

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Speaker 1: a barrel. Meanwhile, silver, not even gold, gold is at

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Speaker 1: forty three hundred and forty two dollars an ounce. Silver

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Speaker 1: has cracked sixty six dollars an ounce. Full disclosure, I

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Speaker 1: sold mine at fifty one and I did pretty well,

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Speaker 1: so you can imagine I could be angry, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not a guy who gets angry. The point is an

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Speaker 1: ounce of silver is worth more than a barrel of oil.

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Speaker 1: You're an economist, what does that mean.

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Speaker 2: Hedge against inflation? It's pure and simple. Silver and gold

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Speaker 2: are hedges against inflation. So that tells you the people

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Speaker 2: in the commodities market, they are strongly in favor of

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Speaker 2: the fact that inflation is not killed. It's here, and

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Speaker 2: they're going to bed against it by putting their money

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Speaker 2: into commodities. And that's why that cracked the number you

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Speaker 2: just mentioned. They're simply hedging against inflation. So it contradicts

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Speaker 2: the other data that we just got from the CPI.

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Speaker 1: And that's the part that gets everybody nuney. What are

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Speaker 1: you supposed to look at? What are you supposed to

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Speaker 1: think when you see how Americans act in general? Not

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Speaker 1: the markets Americans you're to be an economist is to

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Speaker 1: be a philosopher's to be an observer of moods and movements.

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Speaker 1: What are the American people telling you?

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Speaker 2: You know what I believe, I strongly say this all

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Speaker 2: the time. Trump is his own worst enemy. And what

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Speaker 2: the people believe is they know that that this guy

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Speaker 2: can't get out of his way. For all the great

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Speaker 2: things he does, he does some bad things. And I

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Speaker 2: sound like a broken record when I say that, But

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Speaker 2: that's what we're getting today's data. CPI says inflation's not

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Speaker 2: as bad as we thought. Silver says inflation is bad.

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Speaker 2: People say, hey, my economy is good, and some people

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Speaker 2: say economy doesn't look so great, Tony. We're in a

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Speaker 2: massive state of uncertainty and confusion at the moment, and

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Speaker 2: I think the President is causing this by contradicting his

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Speaker 2: good policies with some bad ones.

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Speaker 1: Is this all about tariffs or is this all about

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Speaker 1: something else?

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Speaker 2: It's all about tariff, Sony, because when you look at

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Speaker 2: the year over year, remember that's the two point seven

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Speaker 2: data we're looking at. That includes pre tariff data, the

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Speaker 2: post tariff data. That number is higher than it really

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Speaker 2: than it appears at two point seven. The post tariff

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Speaker 2: data is still coming into the information and so we're

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Speaker 2: going to see that. We saw it in the is

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Speaker 2: MPM I report earlier this month. We saw that number

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Speaker 2: creeping up. There is still inflation, especially on the whole

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Speaker 2: sale side. That's where we're seeing it, and it's not gone. Inflation. Affordability,

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Speaker 2: you know, that's the word that the Democrats are trying

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Speaker 2: to use. Trump needs to legitimately admit, Okay, we've got

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Speaker 2: an inflation problem. Let's fix it.

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Speaker 1: And do we have a manufacturing problem? Still?

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Speaker 2: Define manufacturing problem? Are we making stuff? No? We are

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Speaker 2: still on nine months nine months of declining manufacturing in

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Speaker 2: the US. We haven't seen that kind of decline since

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Speaker 2: the pandemic. The terrorifts are causing the terarfs are causing

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Speaker 2: the manufacturing shrinking in the United States. And Trump needs

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Speaker 2: to get rid of these dang terrorists because they're the

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Speaker 2: ones hurting the manufacturing. He thinks it helps. But I

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Speaker 2: got to tell you, as good as he is, he's

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Speaker 2: wrong on this, and he's been wrong from the beginning.

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Speaker 1: But he's not moving from it. He told you last

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Speaker 1: night and the speech tarror for the most beautiful word

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Speaker 1: in the world.

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Speaker 2: Well, and you know why I got to tell you.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm a Trump fan, and I'll admit it

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Speaker 2: on the air. I loaded for Trump. But this guy,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's he could be one of the greatest

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Speaker 2: economic presidents of history if he would stop stranding himself

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Speaker 2: with people. To tell me you already is.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Matt Will, economists at the University of Indianapolis. I

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Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time to be with us more

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Speaker 1: to get to this is Tony Katz Today,