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Speaker 1: So now we have the clear hit on Iran, we

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Speaker 1: don't have to question whether or not it's coming. We

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Speaker 1: know that it is here. We know that for US

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Speaker 1: service members have been lost. We are fully aware that

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Speaker 1: the objective here is regime change. No matter what Pete Hegsett,

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Speaker 1: the Secretary of War says that it's not regime change.

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Speaker 1: Even President Trump's own words want to play into the

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Speaker 1: idea that it's up to the people of Iran to

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Speaker 1: run their government and change the regime. But this was

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Speaker 1: a full on hit to take out the Ayatola and

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Speaker 1: change the game. But the people who think that this

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Speaker 1: was just because of the United States are just because

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Speaker 1: of Israel, are missing the forest for the trees. Tony Katz,

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz today, good to be with you. Steve Yates

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Speaker 1: joins me right now from the Heritage Foundation, where he

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Speaker 1: is a research Fellow for China and National Security Policy

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Speaker 1: at the Heritage Foundation, and he has long been one

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Speaker 1: of the guys being able to well understand what's going

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Speaker 1: on in the Middle East and around the globe, not

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Speaker 1: just China, although there is, Steve, a rather large China

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Speaker 1: component here. But let's start with the basics. You see

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Speaker 1: this hit on around from the United States. What did

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Speaker 1: you immediately think.

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Speaker 2: Well, first, when I heard the President give a very

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Speaker 2: comprehensive video explanation for what the mission was, I mean,

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Speaker 2: I just always go back to thinking about what the

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Speaker 2: lessons of post nine to eleven were, and especially the

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Speaker 2: Iraq War were, because just like in the post nine

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Speaker 2: to eleven environment, there was a shaking off the ghosts

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Speaker 2: of Vietnam with first Golf War and then things that

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Speaker 2: were happening in a lot of ways now, the way

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Speaker 2: President Trump was using force is throwing off the ghosts

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Speaker 2: of the Iraq War. And so what I heard was

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Speaker 2: multiple reasons for why we had to act now, and

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Speaker 2: that the United States was not likely to be put

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Speaker 2: boots on the ground, but it was bringing overwhelming force

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Speaker 2: in cooperation with another country, in this case Israel. And

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Speaker 2: then Iran's immediate response was to strike at a lot

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Speaker 2: of Golf partners who were housing American bases, but the

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Speaker 2: net effect was to take those who might have been

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Speaker 2: fence sitters, and immediately they had a grievance once again

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Speaker 2: with Iran, which really reanimated what the theory behind the

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Speaker 2: Abraham Accords was that the prime reason why these Arab

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Speaker 2: countries were going to normalize relations with Israel and take

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Speaker 2: this different approach, and maximum pressure in Iran was because

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Speaker 2: Iran under the theocratic regime was the existential and destabilizing force,

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Speaker 2: and now this military operation is aimed at ending that threat.

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Speaker 2: So I was impressed with how the president was couching it.

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Speaker 2: The major military operations have been pretty incredible to watch.

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Speaker 2: We've seen some very advanced weapons systems. I mean, Israel

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Speaker 2: had a very advanced new missile defense system that's been

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Speaker 2: on display that frankly should be shivering the timbers of

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Speaker 2: Russia and China. If our allies are willing and able

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Speaker 2: to share said technology with, say Japan and Taiwan, the

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Speaker 2: scales tip in other theaters. It's not just about the

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Speaker 2: Middle East. But so far, I think this has been

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Speaker 2: judiciously executed. Sadly, we've had a few casualties and some

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Speaker 2: of our allies have had some difficulties, but overall, there

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Speaker 2: was a lot of big talk by Iran and some

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Speaker 2: big talk by others in the world, and now we

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Speaker 2: are starting to have I think the weaker leaders of

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Speaker 2: the world sort of admit and maybe we shouldn't have

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Speaker 2: just had Trump arrangement syndrome and said everything is bad

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Speaker 2: and maybe we should try to be an ally in

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Speaker 2: the United States again.

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Speaker 1: So I spoke to you on Saturday after this happened.

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Speaker 1: I was getting ready for this large event that I

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Speaker 1: was doing Trump one year and one month later and

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Speaker 1: the whole the parties that I often throw, and I

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Speaker 1: had to include this. So you were amongst the first

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Speaker 1: people I called. And what I said to you was,

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Speaker 1: I draw the straight line from the Abraham Accords through

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Speaker 1: October seventh to the Board of Peace to this moment.

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Speaker 1: That there is a through line, and what we are

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Speaker 1: really looking at is a rethink of how we engage

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Speaker 1: diplomatically and how we engage the Middle East as a whole.

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Speaker 1: And it isn't a policy of get more violent with them.

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Speaker 1: It started going back to the Abraham Accords, a conversation

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Speaker 1: of you don't have to listen to or be afraid

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Speaker 1: of the Iranians if you want to have trade with

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Speaker 1: Israel and start having a normal world. That's where this

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Speaker 1: starts from you. I was thrilled to see agreed with

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Speaker 1: the basic tenets of where I'm at, even if you

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Speaker 1: considered it's sophomoric in my attempt to explain it, which

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you not mocking me for, But I am

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Speaker 1: onto something here this. Talk to me about what you

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Speaker 1: saw from the Abraham Accords that would set up a

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Speaker 1: rethink of the Middle East and our presentation towards it.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's not just the euronto something. You're onto the

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Speaker 2: same thing that President Trump and the core group around

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Speaker 2: him in the first term, we're onto for way too long.

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Speaker 2: The alleged expert class of the world told us that

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Speaker 2: you can't have peace in the Middle East unless you

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Speaker 2: begin with recognizing an independent state for Palestine, whatever that means,

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Speaker 2: and that you have to have some kind of a

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Speaker 2: deal that is essentially compromised with Iran. So you have

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Speaker 2: to super peace with Iran, whether it's pallets full of cash,

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Speaker 2: some kind of arms control deal, but you're accepting some

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Speaker 2: permanent role of Iran under the theocratic leadership, playing a

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Speaker 2: dominant hegemonic like role in the region. And you have

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Speaker 2: to begin with this notion from the bottom up that

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Speaker 2: there's an independent state of Palestine, somehow Israel is fundamentally compromised,

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Speaker 2: and from there you can get to maybe broader dealings

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East and President Trump wasn't buying that.

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Speaker 2: In this first term. He was one hundred percent behind

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Speaker 2: the alliance with Israel and moved the recognized capital in Israel,

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Speaker 2: moved our embassy to the recognized capital in Israel. We

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Speaker 2: stopped playing this intellectual game, and we began, frankly to

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Speaker 2: see different reform minded leadership among some of our Arab allies.

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Speaker 2: And I give them a lot of credit for driving

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Speaker 2: this conversation. When America and Israeli politics can get crazy,

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Speaker 2: complicated and funky, the Arab allied leadership was pretty steady

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Speaker 2: in pushing what this vision was because they too saw

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Speaker 2: the need for a definition of a reformed version of

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Speaker 2: Islamic relations with a state, that these nations need to

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Speaker 2: be nations, not necessarily theocracies. That's an incomplete experiment for

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Speaker 2: a lot of them, but there were voices that were

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Speaker 2: talking this way, and that gives the room for someone

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Speaker 2: like a Trump that with this board of Peace personified,

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Speaker 2: they look at well, you can change fundamentals by doing

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Speaker 2: deals and doing meaningful things, and people have a skin

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Speaker 2: in a different kind of future. And then all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden they realize, if we build this building, we

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Speaker 2: build this park, we build this ice rink, all we're

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Speaker 2: living together, We're doing these again. All of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: You're not this alien being that I've been told to fear.

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Speaker 2: You're the person that I've been doing these things with,

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Speaker 2: and we're both better off for it. And it's that

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Speaker 2: pragmatism that I think was really really behind the ethos

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Speaker 2: of the Abraham Accords. The UAE led the way on

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Speaker 2: that in many many ways, and I think we've had

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Speaker 2: a revival of that with getting to your dots, connecting

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Speaker 2: through the travesty of October seventh, reminding people that the

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Speaker 2: theocracy in are on its tentacles, have not gone away,

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Speaker 2: They're not in a box, and we have to get

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Speaker 2: back to this. And maybe, like Saudi Arabia wobbling a

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Speaker 2: little bit, got pulled back into oh no, this is

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Speaker 2: going in a bad direction and something more needs to

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Speaker 2: be done.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Stephen Yates the Heritage of Foundation, his expertise

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Speaker 1: is China research trail for China National Security policy, and

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Speaker 1: China plays a huge part in this. I mean, his

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Speaker 1: expertise is in multiple places. China just happens to be

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Speaker 1: one of them. I should say. China gets oil from Iran,

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Speaker 1: China gets oils from Venezuela. China gets oil from the

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Speaker 1: ghost ships that the Russians are moving around that Venezuelan

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Speaker 1: oil avoiding sanctions, et cetera. You take out Nicholas Maduro,

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Speaker 1: you end the ghost ships, you end an oil supply.

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Speaker 1: Now you take out the Iranians. We've seen oil prices jump.

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Speaker 1: Opek said they would have a modest increase in oil

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Speaker 1: production of two hundred and six thousand barrels a day.

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Speaker 1: And that is the world really saying the our world

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Speaker 1: really saying, we're not so upset with the Iranians not

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Speaker 1: being around and bothering us anymore. This is better, But

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Speaker 1: we're not going to go overboard until Trump pushes us

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Speaker 1: to go overboard. But you're China, a desperately thirsty nation

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Speaker 1: trying to engage growth. They have had stunted growth because

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Speaker 1: of their own COVID policies. Now you have a manufacturing

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Speaker 1: slow down the world over, which has further exacerbated the issue.

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Speaker 1: You have levels of unrest in China, which of course

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Speaker 1: are put down in a militarily, in a violent and

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Speaker 1: aggressive military type of way, is what I should say there.

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Speaker 1: The removal of the Iranian regime, How does it affect

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Speaker 1: China and does that mean any level of changes or

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Speaker 1: destabilization in the Pacific rim.

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Speaker 3: I agree all of what your preamble entailed, and I

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Speaker 3: would only add one layer on to it, just in

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Speaker 3: terms of American decision making, China has long played a

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Speaker 3: role in helping Iran and others around sanctions, and so

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Speaker 3: everything that was trying to be that was attempted.

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Speaker 2: On arms control or counterproliferation, holding back nuclear programs, any

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Speaker 2: sanctions that were put in place, China was front in

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Speaker 2: line to undermine the effect of those kinds of pressure

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Speaker 2: and sanctions. And so there's the supply issue that you

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Speaker 2: actually are pointing to that China's discounted access to vast

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Speaker 2: quantities of oil that is profoundly affected by all of this.

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Speaker 2: And I think that the next realm that has to

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Speaker 2: play out is what happens with these resources. If the

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Speaker 2: Venezuelan oil is genuinely put to good use for the

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Speaker 2: people of Venezuela and it doesn't look like it was

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Speaker 2: just taken into America or Trump inc As a lot

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Speaker 2: of his critics try to accuse, and if Iranian resources

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Speaker 2: are put back to help the Iranian people. That's another

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Speaker 2: area where it really knocks the legs out from under

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Speaker 2: the theory that the Chinese Communist Party has been selling

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Speaker 2: to its people and the world world about what America

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Speaker 2: is in decline, That we're just out there with sort

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Speaker 2: of radical disruptive leadership taking things for ourselves when we're

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Speaker 2: ending protracted problems and maybe turning resources back to good purposes.

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Speaker 2: That's a cancerous idea inside China, because hundreds of millions

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Speaker 2: of people in China are not benefiting from the bright

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Speaker 2: and shining cities, They're not benefiting from the world class

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Speaker 2: GDP producing manufacturing hubs. They're still in grinding situations where

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Speaker 2: they don't share in that dream the perpetual promise is

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Speaker 2: there to them. So the bursting of these bubbles has

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Speaker 2: an effect in China.

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Speaker 3: Again.

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Speaker 2: We've sort of come back on China, though, where we

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Speaker 2: are dependent on whether their top leader is rational and

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Speaker 2: the people around them at the leadership level of CCP irrational.

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Speaker 2: There's been a purge in the military that should signal well,

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Speaker 2: maybe this isn't the best time to act. They've seen

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Speaker 2: some of their hardware and communications systems operate to no

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Speaker 2: avail in Venezuela and Iran. That would be a sobriety

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Speaker 2: checkpoint you would think in a rational world about are

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Speaker 2: we really ready to go up to with all its flaws,

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Speaker 2: still the most lethal and effective intelligence and military complex

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Speaker 2: in the world, And if a lot of the things

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Speaker 2: we've been promising to others, we've got these two conflicts,

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Speaker 2: and what's China's role been but a sidelined observer and

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Speaker 2: issue of angry letters when it came to Venezuela and Iran.

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Speaker 2: That's not exactly the power move that they've been trying

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Speaker 2: to sell with their people and their neighbors. So I'd

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Speaker 2: like to believe that while I don't think it as

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Speaker 2: the prime move or motivation by the President and others

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Speaker 2: to do what they've done with Iran, other than that

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Speaker 2: effect is improving our options set to deter China. But

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Speaker 2: I also hope that it's a wake up call to us.

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Speaker 2: We only have this because we won tech races of

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Speaker 2: the past, We've won military modernizations of the past. We've

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Speaker 2: got to win the AI war and the space war

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Speaker 2: of the future if we're going to be able to

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Speaker 2: do for ourselves what we see Israel and the United

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Speaker 2: States doing for others.

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Speaker 1: Now, before I let you go talking to Stephen Yates

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Speaker 1: of the Heritage of Foundation world reaction is no one

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Speaker 1: rushing to the side of the Ayatola. You don't see

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Speaker 1: this from Arab nations, and you talk about how Iran

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Speaker 1: lashed out at them, preventing them from even coming to

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Speaker 1: their side, which is a you're right crazed. What's the

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Speaker 1: next leadership of Iran? Is the crown prince coming back

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Speaker 1: as you see it or in about sixty seconds? What

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Speaker 1: is the next move? What can we expect to see?

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Speaker 2: Well, there's what we would like to see, which is

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Speaker 2: the free people of Iran getting their wish and having

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Speaker 2: no remnants of an evil regime playing a role in

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Speaker 2: real life, and the options that we have in the

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Speaker 2: near future. I think the Trump administration is looking for,

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Speaker 2: are there remnants of institutions that might be reform minded,

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Speaker 2: that might be able to work in the way the

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Speaker 2: remnants in Venezuela have for different results, to then work

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Speaker 2: toward a transition where there's true liberation and no more

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Speaker 2: of a legacy of this regime. But the Persian culture

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Speaker 2: is not naturally Islamist. There's a foundation on which to

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Speaker 2: work and build and those people don't want an Islamist

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Speaker 2: inheritor to the Iatola's regime, and so I think that's

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Speaker 2: where we have to have our partners in the world

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Speaker 2: play more of a role economically and politically and helping

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Speaker 2: read and shape this and empower those people. We're doing

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Speaker 2: the break it part, but the rest of the world's

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Speaker 2: going to have to do their part in the build

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Speaker 2: up and securing that future for the Iranian people.

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Speaker 1: Stephen Yates to the Heritage Foundation. I appreciate taking the

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Speaker 1: time to be with us. More is coming up on

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz and this many cats today