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Speaker 1: Live from val Hartbier and the Crossroads of America.

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Speaker 2: It's Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 1: It's not that I have been led to believe that

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Speaker 1: Republicans don't want to win. It's that they have told me,

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Speaker 1: in no uncertain terms, whether it's members of Congress, House

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Speaker 1: and Senate, whether it's the influencer chattering class of absolute fools,

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Speaker 1: they have no interest in winning. They have no interest

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Speaker 1: in a fight. They don't actually want to fight, they

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Speaker 1: don't know how to fight. They would rather complain about

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Speaker 1: forever wars than ending them. Now, this is going to

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Speaker 1: be seen as heresy amongst a lot of people, some

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Speaker 1: of whom are maga and some of whom are part

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Speaker 1: of this influencer set that thinks Tucker is making a

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Speaker 1: point I put forth to you that he's not.

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Speaker 2: The point is.

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Speaker 1: We win or we lose, and you don't win until

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Speaker 1: the deal is done. Tony Katz, Tony Katz.

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Speaker 2: Today, Good to be here, Good to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Noah Roffman joins me right now from National Review. That's

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Speaker 1: where you find his work and also his latest book,

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Speaker 1: which will soon be available, Blood in Progress, A Century

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Speaker 1: of Left Wing Violence, available on Amazon dot Com in

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Speaker 1: May or wherever fine books are sold. And I was

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Speaker 1: overjoyed to see your piece over at National Review last week,

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Speaker 1: this regarding this very concept about winning America and where

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Speaker 1: is it there? It is America and Israel remind the

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Speaker 1: world how wars are fought to victory. And what I

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Speaker 1: am saying is that it very much seems when I'm

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Speaker 1: hearing this talk of we could declare victory and be

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Speaker 1: done right now, My gosh, we've already achieved everything. The

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Speaker 1: regime is not gone. You still have missiles flying, there's

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Speaker 1: still the possible ability of oil being sold to China

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Speaker 1: and therefore dollars being utilized for terrorism. You still have

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Speaker 1: because the regime has not been dismantled, destroyed, obliterated, however

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Speaker 1: you want to call it.

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Speaker 2: The people still under threat.

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Speaker 1: And even if you think that the Iranian people still

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Speaker 1: under threat and not being able to live their lives.

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Speaker 2: It's something you shouldn't concern yourself with.

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Speaker 1: One can clearly say if President Trump said help is

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Speaker 1: on its way, that's what he meant. So let's start

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Speaker 1: with my original premise. Your story there at National Review.

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Speaker 1: Are Republicans afraid of winning?

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Speaker 3: I don't think Republicans are afraid of winning. I think

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Speaker 3: Republicans are afraid of losing, which is a prudent consideration. However,

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Speaker 3: it's a consideration that needs to be informed by more

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Speaker 3: than the perspective that you've gleaned from the first eleven

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Speaker 3: days of this conflict. It's a perspective that needs to

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Speaker 3: incorporate the twenty five years or more of wargaming that

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Speaker 3: has been going on in Washington, in Jerusalem and Westtern

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Speaker 3: and capitals in Europe about how this conflict would unfold.

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Speaker 3: And so far it looks nothing like what we anticipated,

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Speaker 3: and it looked nothing like what we anticipated in a

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Speaker 3: good way, in a way that favors the West. So,

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Speaker 3: just like any conflict, the enemy gets a vote, no

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Speaker 3: plan survives first contact with the enemy, as the axiom holds,

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Speaker 3: and that's all true in this conflict. We can't control

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Speaker 3: every outcome, but we control a lot of outcomes. So

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Speaker 3: we should start back in let's say two thousand mid

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Speaker 3: adds two thousand two to two thousand and seven, and

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Speaker 3: the anticipation of what this war would look like, and

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Speaker 3: the wargames anticipated that Arean would activate its network of

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Speaker 3: proxies that Europeans and Americans would be targeted on the

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Speaker 3: homeland in the United States and in Europe, as well

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Speaker 3: as our vulnerable positions in places like Iraq and Syria.

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Speaker 3: Sleeper cells would activate in Latin America and perhaps cross

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Speaker 3: through the border southern border. Hezblah would roar to Life

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Speaker 3: and Lebanon and rain missiles down on Israel, crippling cyber

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Speaker 3: attacks across the Western landscape. Governmental and commercial interests like

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Speaker 3: banks would be significantly disrupted. Individual financial transactions would be disrupted. Bombs, missiles, drones,

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Speaker 3: and mines would close off the Hormuz straight for the

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Speaker 3: foreseeable future, creating crippling pressure on the energy markets. We

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Speaker 3: were anticipated to say, within days, if not weeks, of

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Speaker 3: that conflict two hundred three hundred dollars dollars a barrel

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Speaker 3: for Brent crude, to say nothing of the military campaign

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Speaker 3: on the ground, which would likely necessitate a significant ground

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Speaker 3: invasion upwards of five hundred thousand ground troops US ground

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Speaker 3: troops maybe a million in arms on the ground. By

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Speaker 3: the end of combat operations, it was anticipated that about

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Speaker 3: a million people would be dead, civilians and military alike.

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Speaker 3: Iranian cities would be in ruins, compelling the West to

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Speaker 3: commit untold fortune to its rebuilding, because those who survived

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Speaker 3: the conflict will mainly live in a state of economic

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Speaker 3: devastation for years, and some perhaps will pick up arms

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Speaker 3: in the form of insurgent groups to fight the invading

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Speaker 3: US force. According to vox dot com, a civil war

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Speaker 3: would follow the regimes collapse, followed by a massive refugee

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Speaker 3: crisis across the region, and pockets of instability would create

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Speaker 3: conditions in which terrorist groups, transnational islam As terrorist groups

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Speaker 3: would thrive and project power outward.

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Speaker 2: So this was the scenario.

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Speaker 1: This was the scenario that was put forth by the

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Speaker 1: people in the think tanks who say, well, if you

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Speaker 1: do this, here's what's going to happen. Worst case scenario,

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Speaker 1: here's what you got. That was the thoughts in the

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Speaker 1: early two thousands right.

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Speaker 3: So to date, according to Admiral Brad Cooper, who's in

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Speaker 3: charge of this campaign, the US alone has struck five

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Speaker 3: five hundred military targets. Our goal is simply to eliminate

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Speaker 3: Iran's capacity to project power across its borders, and we're

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Speaker 3: doing that. Iranian missile launches are down ninety two percent

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Speaker 3: from the outset of hostilities, its missile stockpiles are roughly depleted.

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Speaker 3: Those that aren't depleted are entombed in these underground missile cities.

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Speaker 3: We have drones that orbit above those that we haven't

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Speaker 3: hit and just simply strike when they see activity. Roughly

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Speaker 3: sixty percent of Iran ballistic missile launchers have been disabled,

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Speaker 3: so even if it has significant stockpiles, and it still does,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't have the means to launch them. The Iranian

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Speaker 3: Navy is now fodder for artificial reefs. We've hit approximately

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Speaker 3: sixty vessels, including every one of the most advanced class

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Speaker 3: of ships warships, the Solamani class. They're all gone. Sixteen

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Speaker 3: Iranian mind layers have been destroyed. We've hit ten of

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Speaker 3: Iran's eighteen air fields, rendering most of them just completely inoperable,

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Speaker 3: hitting their their runways. For example. The Iranian Air Force

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Speaker 3: is a non issue. The United States now maintains, if

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Speaker 3: not air supremacy or superiority, which allows us to back

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Speaker 3: off these really expensive rockets, stand off exquisite munitions they're called,

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Speaker 3: and lean more into gravity bombs, which are you know,

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Speaker 3: dumb dumb bombs as you remember them from the twentieth century.

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Speaker 3: But all of them, all of them are fitted with

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Speaker 3: jadeam kits which allow them to be precision, precision guided munitions.

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Speaker 3: So people who say things like we're carpet bombing US

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Speaker 3: cities just don't understand Iranian cities just don'tnderstand what our

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Speaker 3: capabilities are. We just don't do that anymore because we

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Speaker 3: don't have to. In addition, just as was the case

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Speaker 3: in Venezuela, Iranian technology, or rather Russian and Chinese technology

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Speaker 3: stealth radars for example, these advanced as three hundred as

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Speaker 3: four hundred anti air batteries are just simply not a

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Speaker 3: factor in this fight. So we've demonstrated, we've conveyed to

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Speaker 3: the capitals in Beijing and Moscow precisely how limited their

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Speaker 3: capacities are. Now, that's not to say that there aren't

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Speaker 3: problems with this whole campaign, and in particular the Iranian

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Speaker 3: strategy to project force outward to draw the Gulf into

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Speaker 3: this fight. That was also anticipated. In fact, it was

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Speaker 3: anticipated that the Gulf States would sue for peace, or

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Speaker 3: if not, at least ensure their neutrality by virtue of

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Speaker 3: how they were being hit, and the opposite has happened.

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Speaker 3: It's emboldened the Gulf States to support this campaign. Tacitly

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Speaker 3: or even actively in some cases. And we're seeing, you know,

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Speaker 3: some efforts by the Uranian regime to create this oil

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Speaker 3: price spike that we also anticipated would be the case

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Speaker 3: with the cutting off of the Strait of Hormuz. For

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Speaker 3: the most part, however, the Strait of Hormones is closed

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Speaker 3: off not because it's mined, not because missiles are flying.

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Speaker 3: Short range missiles are a significant threat, but they're not

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Speaker 3: the threat that is closed off the strait. It's largely

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Speaker 3: market considerations, insurance and what have you that has put

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Speaker 3: traffic to a halt, which is a financial weapon, not

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Speaker 3: necessarily a kinetic weapon, and we have the means to

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Speaker 3: deal with that as well, but it's not what we

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Speaker 3: anticipated in two thousand and two or two thousand and

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Speaker 3: seven what this conflict would look like.

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Speaker 2: Talking to them, the enemy.

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Speaker 3: Always gets a vote, but the enemy's vote is attenuated

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Speaker 3: significantly in ways that I don't think is being really

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Speaker 3: appreciated by lay observers of this conflict.

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Speaker 1: So I appreciate a full layout of what happened there

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Speaker 1: the background talking to Noah Rothman of National Review, And

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Speaker 1: we should note that as we're discussing this, the news

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Speaker 1: out today that the IEA, the International Energy Agency two

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Speaker 1: member countries, they're going to release four hundred million barrels

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Speaker 1: of oil to address the shortfall. It still doesn't change

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Speaker 1: what has to happen in the Straits, the removal of

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Speaker 1: minds and possibly the escorting of ships through.

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Speaker 2: We can get to that at another time.

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Speaker 1: But I started this conversation with our Republicans afraid of winning.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to tell you why I bring that up.

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Speaker 1: Now. What you're saying is is that everything they thought

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Speaker 1: would be true is not true, did not come to pass.

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Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, the opposite has taken place.

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Speaker 1: This was Senator Josh Hawley Missouri on Fox News yesterday.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that he's achieved his objectives the way

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Speaker 4: that he's laid them out, and you just put it beautiful, Jesse.

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Speaker 4: I mean, what is there really that's left to do

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Speaker 4: that we haven't already done. I mean, we have demonstrated

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Speaker 4: to the world and anybody who's watching by the way,

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Speaker 4: that we have overwhelming military superiority and we know how.

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Speaker 2: To use it.

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Speaker 4: We have totally destroyed forever their nuclear program. We have

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Speaker 4: destroyed their ballistic missiles, we have destroyed their Navy. I mean,

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Speaker 4: this has been a total success in whatever it's been

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Speaker 4: eleven days, and I thought the president's remarks last night

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Speaker 4: that he could declare victory today and it would be

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Speaker 4: a one victory. I think it's true. I think we

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Speaker 4: ought to say to our heroes, thank you for a.

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Speaker 3: Job well done.

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Speaker 4: This has been absolutely amazing, it's been astounding, it's been historic,

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Speaker 4: and now it's time to declare victory.

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Speaker 1: Now allow me for a moment. I have no problem

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Speaker 1: with declaring victory. But if the victory is not the

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Speaker 1: end of the regime, if the victory is not the

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Speaker 1: end of anybody connected to the eyetoe.

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Speaker 2: Of being in power.

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Speaker 1: If the end if victory it is not the end

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Speaker 1: of dollars flowing to terrorist organizations, whether whoever's left of

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Speaker 1: Hamas has blow or anywhere else, well, then it's not victory.

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Speaker 1: If it's not the people running or deciding their leadership

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Speaker 1: and running.

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Speaker 2: Their own life lives. I don't even begin to.

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Speaker 1: Understand how it's victory, which leads me back to my

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Speaker 1: initial question. Are Republicans afraid of winning? Because what I

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Speaker 1: hear from Josh Holly, and you could argue that I'm wrong,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking it in the wrong direction, it's super possible.

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Speaker 2: I think that this is a cut and run.

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Speaker 1: I think if you're saying they're afraid to lose, not

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Speaker 1: afraid to win. Being afraid to lose is an insane proposition,

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Speaker 1: in a foolhardy one. And that's what this sounds like,

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Speaker 1: is have we achieved the objectives?

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Speaker 3: No and premature withdrawal. No matter how much bravado you

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Speaker 3: package it in, is never going to be anything less

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Speaker 3: than pusillanimous. And the Senator and many people in the

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Speaker 3: political class, particularly on the Republican side, seem to think

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Speaker 3: that they can convey messages that are cowardly in substance,

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Speaker 3: but as long as they pound the table enough, you

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Speaker 3: won't notice. And the senator's own terms, we have not

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Speaker 3: achieved the objectives that he says. We have to obliterate

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Speaker 3: the Iranian nuclear program for all time would require the

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Speaker 3: collapse of this regime. But if you're going to commit

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Speaker 3: yourself to a perpetual campaign of mowing the lawn, for example,

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Speaker 3: anytime Iranians poke their heads up and try to reconstitute

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Speaker 3: their nuclear program, we hit them, which could be which

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Speaker 3: could be considered the precedent that was set in Operation

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Speaker 3: Midnight Hammer, that we hit these we will not allow

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Speaker 3: rand to have nuclear capabilities. Anytime they try to do so,

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Speaker 3: we'll hit them again. That will not be achieved if

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Speaker 3: Araan maintains the capacity to develop long range and short

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Speaker 3: range ballistic missiles. We're only now, according to Brad Cooper,

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Speaker 3: beginning to strike their capacity to manufacture these weapons. And

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Speaker 3: they can manufacture these weapons and droves much faster than

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Speaker 3: we can manufacture interceptors. And what the Administration has been

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Speaker 3: laying out over the course of a week, and not

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Speaker 3: sure if the Senator just simply isn't privy to this

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Speaker 3: sort of thing, but they've been saying it for anyone

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Speaker 3: willing to listen, is that the Iranian regime was developing

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Speaker 3: a ballistic missile capacity that would prevent us from accessing

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Speaker 3: the Middle East. It would be it would create unacceptable

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Speaker 3: costs for military intervention against a future Iranian nuclear program.

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Speaker 3: I agree that there wasn't many indications ahead of this

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Speaker 3: campaign that the Iranians were reconstituting that program in ways

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Speaker 3: that mirrored what it looked like before Midnight Hammer, but

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Speaker 3: that's not to say that they weren't doing anything. And

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Speaker 3: a crash course missile program could create the conditions in

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Speaker 3: which the United States has denied access to this region,

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Speaker 3: which fundamentally seeds if we were to accept that proposition,

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Speaker 3: which seeds to I RAN a nuclear program and inevitably

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Speaker 3: nuclear breakout. So yes, that position is a very muscular

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Speaker 3: way of saying that we should allow Ran to have

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Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon at some point in time based on

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Speaker 3: its own determination of when it would break out. So yes,

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Speaker 3: that it would be surrender. It's just couched in ways

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Speaker 3: that are more palatable to an audience that will accept

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Speaker 3: that sort of proposition as long as it's framed as

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Speaker 3: America first, America, muscle America alone. It's a very muscular

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Speaker 3: overture to the to the audience. But the thing is

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Speaker 3: is that we have very little indication that the audience

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Speaker 3: is receptive to it.

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Speaker 1: Now, that is a conversation I want to get into.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a little more time?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? All right, Noah Rothman, National Review dot Com. Keep

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Speaker 2: it here. This is Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 1: This did not hit the radars of many people, this

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Speaker 1: statement from UNI Birmingham. You're like, what is you need Birmingham,

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Speaker 1: University of Birmingham, This is the uk Tony Katz, Tony

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Speaker 1: Katz today, good to be with you. Statement on Sexual

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Speaker 1: Abuse and Organizational Accountability. Oh dear lord, what the heck

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Speaker 1: is this about? Well, this is about Hamas supporters raping people.

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Speaker 1: That's what it's about. I'll read it to you. Can't

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Speaker 1: make this up. I wouldn't know how to make this up.

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Speaker 1: It reads Statement on Sexual Abuse and Organizational Accountability. We

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Speaker 1: want to begin by acknowledging the serious harm that occurred

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Speaker 1: during the encampments. So far, we are aware that four

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Speaker 1: former participants in BLZ spaces were subjected to serious and

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Speaker 1: damaging abuse by Achmad code name Egypt, who is a

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Speaker 1: student at UOB and was a member of BLZ at

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Speaker 1: the time. Organizational failures meant that the survivor Pink was

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Speaker 1: excluded from spaces where the person who harmed her was

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Speaker 1: later able to return. You understand that these people speak

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Speaker 1: in in ways that make it impossible to follow. Let's

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Speaker 1: try and understand it. Hamas rape enthusiasts a college encampment

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Speaker 1: were raping each other.

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Speaker 2: Correct, absolutely accurate.

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Speaker 1: This BLZ Birmingham Liberated Zone right like the Chaz chop.

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Speaker 1: Oh oh, they've got all their buzzwords and you got

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Speaker 1: to just go through deciphering it to understand what was said.

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Speaker 1: What they're actually getting to Birmingham Queers for Palestine.

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Speaker 2: We could stop right there and take a breath. Uh

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Speaker 2: what did net Yahoo say?

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Speaker 1: A Queers for Palestine is like chickens for KFC. I

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Speaker 1: was in the room. They're in the chamber where the

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Speaker 1: House and Senate gathers. I was in the House chamber

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Speaker 1: when it got said. Birmingham Queers for Palestine began in

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Speaker 1: September twenty twenty four after a small group left the

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Speaker 1: Birmingham Liberated Zone at the University of Birmingham following a

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Speaker 1: pattern of sexual assault and normalization of abusive behavior within

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Speaker 1: the organization. In June twenty twenty four, a member of

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Speaker 1: BLZ Achmad code named egypt that doesn't mean the dude

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Speaker 1: was Egyptian, was credibly accused of both sexual and emotional

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Speaker 1: abuse by another camper named Pink.

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Speaker 2: When questioned on this decision, camp leaders.

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Speaker 1: Claimed that Achnaud was a useful contributor to the camp

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Speaker 1: and a personal friend, and that the accusations were false,

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Speaker 1: despite his openly violent and misogynistic attitude towards Pink and

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Speaker 1: other campers.

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Speaker 2: Guys.

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Speaker 1: The the horror here is that this woman was sexually

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Speaker 1: abused and everyone looked the other way.

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Speaker 2: But we have seen this pattern before. We've seen this

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Speaker 2: in New York.

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Speaker 1: Do you remember Eric Schneiderman, former New York Attorney General

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Speaker 1: for women, accusing him of physical and sexual abuse in

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Speaker 1: past relationships. And one of those women acknowledged that she

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Speaker 1: wanted to say something about it, she wanted to go

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Speaker 1: to authorities about it. And other are democrats because this

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Speaker 1: guy was a Democrat, said.

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Speaker 2: Hey, listen, we need him. He's going to run for

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Speaker 2: higher office. We need it. You can't do that.

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Speaker 1: They're all about standing up for women right until it

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Speaker 1: affects their politics, or their relationships, or their friendships or

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Speaker 1: their opportunities. And then oh no, you got to take

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Speaker 1: a say, you know, stay quiet. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: your skirt was probably too short. This is a known

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Speaker 1: thing that happens. And one could argue that the idea

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Speaker 1: of hey, you don't want to make waves happens on

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Speaker 1: every side of the aisle. Make all the waves, don't

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Speaker 1: You don't deserve to be sexually abused.

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Speaker 2: But you think these chaz chop.

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Speaker 1: Blz areas, you think these people are good people.

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Speaker 2: They're not good people. This is abusive.

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Speaker 1: I organized a lot of tea party events, a lot

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Speaker 1: of tea party events I organized back in the day,

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Speaker 1: thousands of people, hundreds of people, tens of people. No

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Speaker 1: one ever made a claim like this. Mostly the claim

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Speaker 1: is what no snacks was it this? Because that ain't

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Speaker 1: what we do. You had people killed in the chaz

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Speaker 1: Chop raped there in the Birmingham Liberated Zone.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the left should learn that you want to stay

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Speaker 2: away from these things.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you're on the wrong side with wrong, bad people

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Speaker 1: who want to do bad things. Maybe some people think

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Speaker 1: it's culturally acceptable. Whatever is going on, we're gonna notice,

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Speaker 1: and you need to make sure you steer your kids

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Speaker 1: and your friends far away from this crowd. I've got

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Speaker 1: more with Noah Rothman and whether or not social media

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Speaker 1: is influencing our politicians.

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Speaker 2: Keep it here. It's Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 1: So how much pressure does social media put on our politicians?

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Speaker 2: Do they move the needle?

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Speaker 1: Because what I'm seeing from what I will call the GLC,

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Speaker 1: the groper loser class, is that it's seems to be

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Speaker 1: a lot. But why is anybody listening to social media?

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Speaker 1: Social media? Real life Tony Katz. Tony Katz Today, Noa.

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Speaker 1: Rothman continues with me from Nationalreview dot com. Be sure

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Speaker 1: to check out his latest book, Blood and Progress, essentially

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Speaker 1: of left wing violence, available at Amazon dot com wherever

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Speaker 1: fine books are sold starting in May of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: The Quinnipiac poll you had pointed out to me earlier,

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Speaker 1: I'd like for you to take a moment and go

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Speaker 1: through just a little bit of what it is. Those

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Speaker 1: findings are about this difference between where maybe Maga is and.

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Speaker 2: Where well, some of these other people are. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So we have a lot of polling on this, on

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Speaker 3: this war so far, and each of those polls find

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Speaker 3: this conflict to be unpopular. We should be honest about

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Speaker 3: that at the outset. And I'm sympathetic to why the

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Speaker 3: President and this administration did not enlist the American people

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Speaker 3: in what is a national project. It did not solicit

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Speaker 3: their support, and it did not prep them for the

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Speaker 3: sacrifices that they would have to make in order to

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Speaker 3: ensure an outcome that the American people, according to Poling again,

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Speaker 3: have welcomed for the better part of two generations, which

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Speaker 3: is the collapse of this regime. The American public poll

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Speaker 3: after poll recognized as Iran is a threat to the

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Speaker 3: United States and as long as the war is short.

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Speaker 3: According to CBS News polling within weeks, for example, it's

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Speaker 3: a seventy percent proposition popularity. What the American people don't

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Speaker 3: know is how long this is going to go and

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Speaker 3: what the objectives are and how much is going to

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Speaker 3: be asked of them. And the President didn't trust the

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Speaker 3: American people to put that to them. So I sympathize

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Speaker 3: with those who think that this has not been a

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Speaker 3: very clearly outlined conflict and they don't know what's expected

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Speaker 3: of us, and I don't know where this is going

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Speaker 3: to end, and that trepidation, that uncertainty is leading to trepidation.

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Speaker 3: I mean, even Joe Biden, at the outset of the

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Speaker 3: Russian invasion of Ukraine spoke to the American public and

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Speaker 3: set listen, gas prices are going to go up, and

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Speaker 3: the President should have said that. However, there is an indication,

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Speaker 3: there are many indications from those who court the internet

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Speaker 3: as though it's a constituency to be wooed, that they

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Speaker 3: seem to think that MAGA as an as a political

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Speaker 3: entity is up for grabs, that it can be manipulated

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Speaker 3: and perhaps even co opted. It can't. Maga is the

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Speaker 3: President's creation. It does whatever he says is good for us,

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Speaker 3: for good for him, and they back it wholeheartedly. They

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Speaker 3: have the outset of this presidency in twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 3: and they continue to do so. And you can cite,

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Speaker 3: for example, NBC news is polling which has found that

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Speaker 3: eighty nine percent of Democrats are opposed to these strikes,

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Speaker 3: but seventy seven percent of Republicans support them, whereas including

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Speaker 3: ninety percent of self described MAGA Republicans. This is you know,

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Speaker 3: they're on the outlie. They're not with the majority of

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Speaker 3: the public fifty four percent of that of whom in

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Speaker 3: that poll do not favor this conflict. But the MAGA

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Speaker 3: right and the GOP broadly does, and they do because

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Speaker 3: the present and is behind it, and they say that

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Speaker 3: they should be behind it. It's as simple as that.

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Speaker 3: And Republicans and influencer types who seem to think that

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Speaker 3: there is a different Maga out there that they can channel,

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Speaker 3: they're may be talking to ten percent at most of

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Speaker 3: this population of pro Trump voters who are trepidacious about

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Speaker 3: this conflict and are willing to tell pollsters that they

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Speaker 3: don't support the President's you're going to be part. Maybe

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Speaker 3: they're just not giving posters the satisfaction of telling them

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Speaker 3: that they don't support the president having voted for him

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. That's a real possibility. But how

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Speaker 3: many does that constitute as a percentage? A couple of

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Speaker 3: percent five, Maybe it's generally not a phenomenon that accounts

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Speaker 3: for a really significant portion of public opinion.

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Speaker 1: So if we're asking ourselves, you know, you make a

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Speaker 1: very solid point, one that I agree with that social

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Speaker 1: media is not real life, and that in real life

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Speaker 1: you see a very different approach here, But you're the

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Speaker 1: ever popular. The approach is based on time. That's a

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Speaker 1: newer phenomenon. I don't think if we were to take

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Speaker 1: a look at a post Pearl Harbor Americans saying well,

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Speaker 1: I'm in favor of taking out the Imperial Japanese, but

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Speaker 1: only if it takes three months, it takes more than

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Speaker 1: three months, I don't know about that, although I'm sure

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Speaker 1: there were some people who said those kinds of things.

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Speaker 1: So the idea of making the case to America is

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Speaker 1: something that I agree with, and the President has been

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Speaker 1: very bad at this, did a bad job with the

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Speaker 1: economy on this conversation, a bad job with tariffs and

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Speaker 1: what they could mean better down the road for trade deals, This,

435
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 1: that and the other.

436
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: Did not sell that well. They have not sold it. Well.

437
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 2: It's the idea that he says it.

438
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: Everybody buys in and that's it, and that's not the

439
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 1: way the world works. But if MAGA is behind him

440
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 1: ninety percent, as you discuss it, which is an overwhelmingly

441
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: large number, then how does one describe the people who

442
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 1: are part of the chattering classes in this social media

443
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: world that get all these clicks and all this attention.

444
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: Is this the groper, loser class, the GLC? What is

445
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: this group of people?

446
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: This now begins to verge on entertainment analysis, because we're

447
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 3: talking about audience share, which I cannot adjudicate and don't

448
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 3: have real firm grasp on. But that's what's animating this

449
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: is and you hear them talk about it all the time.

450
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,719
Speaker 3: Is they measure themselves relative to the audience of their

451
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: competitors in the podcast space, as though that matters, as

452
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 3: though that is reflective of political dynamics in America, or

453
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: of geopolitical outcomes on the world stage. But this is

454
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: the present through which they view the world. And again,

455
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 3: the opacity of these statistics makes them difficult to analyze.

456
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 3: But when you talk about the quote unquote groper class,

457
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: plenty of information out there and you can go find

458
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: it yourself about the extent to which these numbers are

459
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 3: inflated by foreign entities, particular foreign assets that are attracted

460
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 3: to this kind of content, and also that are deliberately

461
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 3: inflating the numbers, for example Nick Fuintes and his podcast

462
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 3: in order to destabilize the American landscape, discourse landscape, and

463
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 3: promote the notion that anti regime, anti administration sentiment, and

464
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: anti Semitism in particular are on the rise and in

465
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 3: fact really relevant political forces in the United States. And

466
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 3: I just don't find a ton of evidence for that

467
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 3: on the ground. It's mostly anecdotal. It is supported, however,

468
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 3: by pulling like what we've recently discussed. So the burden

469
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 3: of evidence is really on the podcast types who contend

470
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: that they're speaking for a silent majority of the public.

471
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 3: We just don't see that in the numbers, and I'm

472
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 3: going to need more data from them to support that contention.

473
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 3: If they're interested in mustering it, which they're not.

474
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: We don't deny that they have numbers, making the argument

475
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 1: of do the numbers translate into anything of legitimacy in

476
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:11,199
Speaker 1: the political square, but politics downstream of culture. If you

477
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: have members of Congress who are watching these social media nutters,

478
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 1: and by the way, I'm very disparaging. They're more than

479
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 1: welcome to have their careers, and I'm more than welcome

480
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 1: to notice the serious issues they're in. And they could

481
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: do the same about me. And the world keeps turning.

482
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 1: We'll keep spinning. But if the Josh hawleyes or if

483
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: the name the other member of Congress is looking to

484
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: these people Tucker, Meghan, etc. And saying they're the ones

485
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: with the big audiences, I got to go make them happy.

486
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: The Steve Bannon said, Steve Bennon is now a speaker

487
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: at Seapack, the Conservative Political Action Conference. Well, then that

488
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 1: does indeed politics downstream of cultures. The late Andrew Breitbart

489
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: would explain, that does create an issue, and I argue

490
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: that that needs to be pushed back upon with massive

491
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 1: levels of force.

492
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and typically it'll be voters who do the pushback.

493
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 3: Democrats already went through this and it would be extremely

494
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,239
Speaker 3: foolish for Republicans to follow their example. But think back

495
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 3: to twenty nineteen and the Democratic primary race in twenty

496
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 3: nineteen ahead of the twenty twenty primaries, and it was

497
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 3: a contest between everybody, including Joe Biden to a lesser extent,

498
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 3: although much lesser extent, was a competition to be the

499
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 3: most woke, the most progressive, the most outlandish in support

500
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 3: for policies that the American public would never support, and

501
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 3: they did so knowingly because they were courting the Internet

502
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 3: as a constituency. The Internet was four sware behind the

503
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 3: Green New Deal, free college for everyone, universal basic incomes

504
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 3: for everyone, DEI as the load star of the United States,

505
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 3: sluffing off meritocracy as a vestage, a vestige rather of

506
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,040
Speaker 3: the Enlightenment, so on and so forth. Every illegal immigrant

507
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: should get drivers' licenses and visas, and the border should

508
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: be open. It was just a festival of self incrimination

509
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 3: in ways that a lot of those elements did not

510
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: recover from. Defund the police is now something that you

511
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 3: hang around Democratic candidates like a millstone, whereas it was

512
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: something that everyone endorsed in twenty nineteen. Again with the

513
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 3: limited exception of Joe Biden, who can't by the way,

514
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 3: who came from behind in South Carolina to emerge victorious

515
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 3: in that primary contest. So the far left, which is

516
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 3: represented far left and usually monochromatically white, we should be

517
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: clear about, was attracted to that sort of thing, whereas

518
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 3: the majority of the Democratic Party, its Hispanic voters, it's

519
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:43,239
Speaker 3: African American voters, and its older voters, were not as

520
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 3: attracted to these ideas, and they demonstrated that they had

521
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 3: very little purchase among even Democratic constituencies over the course

522
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 3: of that season. That those lessons are being lost on Democrats,

523
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,200
Speaker 3: but apparently they're being lost on the Republicans too, because

524
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 3: if they were to if these Republicans who perceive of

525
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 3: themselves as having a future in twenty twenty eight or beyond,

526
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 3: think that the most radical the most radical position is

527
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 3: the ascendant position. It may not be now, but in

528
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,480
Speaker 3: the future it will be the position in which the

529
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 3: political careers will rise and fall on the right. They're

530
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 3: going to place their bets now, and those could be

531
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 3: really bad bets. And I think Josh Holly is placing

532
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: a really risky gamble on the notion that this war

533
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 3: is ultimately a failure, and if it proceeds a pace

534
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 3: that he can come back and say I called it here.

535
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 3: I said that we should be over with it here,

536
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 3: and the fact that we were not means they don't

537
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 3: listen to me. So you should trust my judgment. It's

538
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: a big it's a big gamble, and I'm not sure

539
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 3: it's going to be a winning one.

540
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: And so everyone understands what you just said that Senator

541
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: Josh Holly is calling this a failure.

542
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: That's what I think he said on Phoo, calling failure.

543
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 3: He's setting the stage to call it a failure, correct,

544
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 3: so he can say I said this was a victory here,

545
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 3: and we could have had a victory and we've sacrificed it.

546
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: So I just taken a step further, I think, And

547
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 1: how his couch get which you get out now? I

548
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: think he is engaging the idea of failure. He's saying

549
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 1: that this is the most we can do, the best

550
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: we can do. Let's get out before it's too late,

551
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: as opposed to why would we ever think it's too late,

552
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 1: Why don't we just do the job.

553
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: It is saying.

554
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: That we aren't capable. That's my take of it. And

555
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: that's where I think the larger scale problem is. I'll

556
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: get called a warmonger. Doesn't matter what I'm called. What

557
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 1: matters is is that I want to finish the job

558
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: and then go home so I don't have to come

559
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: back to this eighteen months from now or three years

560
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 1: from now, or four years from now or four days

561
00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: from now. And I think that we have a serious

562
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: issue that if we have Republicans who are taking their

563
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: cues from social media, we can't actually engage any level

564
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 1: of victory because I again I sat afraid of winning.

565
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: I don't think that's what they want. I say that

566
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 1: they would rather take this loss by a thousand cuts,

567
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 1: this death by a thousand cuts, then then deliver one

568
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 1: punch to stop those people from cutting us. And I

569
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: think it's a real philosophical breakdown in these people that

570
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: somehow this concept of forever wars means just take punches.

571
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: We're big enough, we can handle it.

572
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 3: It's possible. On the upside, however, I'm reasonably sure that

573
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: Senator Hawley at least will abandon this position if the

574
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 3: campaign looks like a success moving forward. You know, there's

575
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 3: no hope for Rand Paul. He's a true believer. But

576
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: I don't think Josh Holly really genuinely believes what he's saying.

577
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 3: He's trying to seek political advantage, and he'll amend his

578
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 3: position in order to find political advantage in the conditions

579
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: that he doesn't anticipate. If there's some sort of a

580
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 3: much more robust victory, a much more ambiguous victory in

581
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 3: the near future, Josh Holly will take credit for that too.

582
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 3: And nobody will remember the comments that were made here, unfortunately,

583
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: because there should be accountability for them. But he could

584
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: end up being pressent. You know, we should say that

585
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 3: the pressure on the oil market is real. I don't

586
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 3: think it's kinetic. I don't think it's military. I think

587
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 3: it's mostly market dynamics. But it's real, and it's having

588
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 3: a profound impact on the thinking of the political class

589
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: in Washington, if not the war planners and those in

590
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 3: the National Security Council. And you never know how that

591
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 3: could unfold. There could be a lot of week spines

592
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 3: in Washington after a week, So Josh Holly may be

593
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 3: a leading indicator and not a lagging one.

594
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 2: Noah Rothman, National Review dot Com.

595
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: The new book Blood and Progress, A Century of Left

596
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: Wing Violence available at Amazon dot Com in May. You

597
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: should get your pre orders in right now. No, I

598
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: appreciate you taking the time to be with us.

599
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 2: More is coming up. I'm Tony Katz.

600
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: This is Tony Katz today, and things continue to rage

601
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 1: on in Iran. The US has wiped out an entire

602
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 1: class of Iranian warships. Adamal Cooper US Central Command Commander

603
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: adamal Cooper saying that American forces have taken out the

604
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: last four of Solomoni class warships. That's an entire class

605
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: of warships out of the fight. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, good.

606
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 2: To be with you. We are hitting well into.

607
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,360
Speaker 1: Iran and the US is now warning Iranians to flee

608
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 1: the ports.

609
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,959
Speaker 2: You may want to leave. We are we are here.

610
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 1: The Iranian regime is using civilian ports along the Straits

611
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: and WARMUS to conduct military operations that threaten international shipping.

612
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 1: So the warning is you may want to leave because

613
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: we're about to handle this sun. So I argued that

614
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: we need to put assets into the straits and engage

615
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 1: in in protection that way and escort these oil tankers through.

616
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: What is being argued I would take as a.

617
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: Response from US Central Command is we're just going to

618
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 1: take these people out where they are. If they are

619
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: if they aren't in the ports, We're just going to

620
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: take out the ports and they're not going to be

621
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:55,439
Speaker 1: able to move a maneuver. But by saying this, isn't

622
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,959
Speaker 1: that giving warning or do you already have a plan

623
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: for that? And I want to be a reminder to

624
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 1: myself and to others as I go over and I

625
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: discuss what's going on and how we're engaging and these

626
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: people who seem to not want to go forward and

627
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: finish the job and they want to an early out.

628
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 1: I have stated in public and in private events that

629
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: the misdirection of this Pentagon has been exceptional. It's a

630
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: pleasure to have adults back in the room. That's exactly

631
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 1: the term I've used. And they have been able to

632
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: engage misdirection to say we're going to do this, and

633
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: then they did that. So I'll take I'll take everything

634
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: a little bit step back and see what results. I

635
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: just want us to finish the job and end the

636
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: regime and make American lives safety the end.

637
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: Find everything at Tony Katx dot com tomorrow. Everyone take

638
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 2: care

639
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 1: In and an amat