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Speaker 1: So the war in Iran continues.

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Speaker 2: And yes, I say war, and yes, other people are

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Speaker 2: going to say conflict because no war was declared.

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Speaker 1: You need Congress to declare war.

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Speaker 2: The President has not violated any laws nor the Constitution

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Speaker 2: by engaging in this action. The War Powers Act gives

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Speaker 2: him every right to do so. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today,

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Speaker 2: good to be here, Good to be with you. But

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Speaker 2: it's just like in the same way that the White

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Speaker 2: House and the Israelis won't refer to this as regime change. Rather,

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Speaker 2: it's setting up the conditions for regime change. It's regime change.

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Speaker 2: And I don't think we should lie to each other

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Speaker 2: about anything.

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Speaker 1: It is what it is. The question is what is

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Speaker 1: winning now.

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Speaker 2: I believe it is the full annihilation of the aetola

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Speaker 2: and the regime until there's nothing less and the people

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Speaker 2: instituting a government that I might disagree with, but that

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Speaker 2: is indeed Theirs and not Islamic.

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Speaker 1: Others may see it differently.

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Speaker 2: How does the United States continue to maneuver and do

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Speaker 2: they have to be considering getting out?

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Speaker 1: And what have we learned on the world stage.

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Speaker 2: Mayor Mike Lyons joins me, and right now retired United

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Speaker 2: States Army military analyst does work with West Points and Sir,

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Speaker 2: I appreciate you taking the time.

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Speaker 1: It's good to see you.

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Speaker 2: I think that there have been a lot of questions,

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Speaker 2: will we see boots on the ground, What is the

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Speaker 2: exit strategy? I'm not so sure one needs an exit

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Speaker 2: strategy at the moment, but it's never a bad question.

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Speaker 2: Is it the feel that this was a rushed operation

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Speaker 2: by the Trump administration or is the feeling amongst the

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Speaker 2: people you speak to and the connections you have that

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Speaker 2: this was always the plan. There was a plan pulled

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Speaker 2: out of a drawer, tweaked, and someone said, meeting the president, Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's go do this thing.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Tony, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 4: Let's you and I today coin a new phrase, not

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Speaker 4: regime change, but regime compliance, because that's really what we're

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Speaker 4: trying to do here. Okay, look at Venezuela. Maybe that

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Speaker 4: is the model here. And it happened so swiftly and

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Speaker 4: so smoothly. We found the right individual within Venezuela that

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Speaker 4: was of that same regime but is looking to comply

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Speaker 4: with what the United States is trying to do. So

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Speaker 4: in this particular situation, the United States, uses war as

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Speaker 4: an extension of foreign policy, can't get the Iranians to

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Speaker 4: negotiate off their nuclear capability, recognizes that they're at their

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Speaker 4: weakest moment in history with regard to any kind of

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Speaker 4: military capability, and uses it as a leverage to try

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Speaker 4: to get regime compliance. And so while the President said

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Speaker 4: that he would be involved with anybody who takes over,

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Speaker 4: maybe somebody from this current regime will be that person

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Speaker 4: that stands up and says we surrender. That would be

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Speaker 4: the smartest thing they could do, because putting America on

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Speaker 4: your side is always good for your long term interests.

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Speaker 4: So again, this was always coming, you know, six months ago,

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Speaker 4: Operation Midnight Hammer was the beginning of it.

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Speaker 3: But we're settling old scores.

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Speaker 4: Right this president admits, Remember at the end of The Godfather,

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Speaker 4: when Michael Corleoni took care of all family business. That's

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Speaker 4: what's happened in the last year with the Trump administration. Venezuela, Iran,

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Speaker 4: Cuba's next. And I think this is all part of

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Speaker 4: a plan that they're executing on frankly, brilliantly.

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Speaker 1: Quick offshoot on the Cuba question.

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Speaker 2: You don't subscribe or ascribe to the idea of military

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Speaker 2: adventurism when we talk about the friendly takeover of Cuba.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's not military adventurism if the military is used

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Speaker 4: as the cudgel and as the effect to get the

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Speaker 4: kind of behavior we want out of the administration. Again,

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Speaker 4: regime compliance. That's all we're trying to get Cuba to do,

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Speaker 4: trying to kick out the Chinese, kick out communist partners

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Speaker 4: that they have. So that's the purpose of the military.

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Speaker 4: It serves as again, distinction of our foreign policy. It's

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Speaker 4: finally being used. I mean, I've watched the last forty

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Speaker 4: US Republicans and Democrats alone fail miserably at it. A Rock,

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Speaker 4: for example, A Rock was about regime change, Saddam Hussein's

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Speaker 4: got to go, and in fact, the regime changed so

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Speaker 4: much we fired everybody and completely destroyed the army.

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Speaker 3: We'll look with that.

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Speaker 4: Look what that ended us with a terrorist operation. Look

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Speaker 4: what that ended up happening. So we don't not necessarily

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Speaker 4: regime change. We want regime compliance. I will we'll have

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Speaker 4: a deal with Cuba. That likely doesn't mean a single

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Speaker 4: soldier or a single shots fired, but it's just in

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Speaker 4: their best interest to comply.

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Speaker 2: At this point, talking to major Mike Lyons, retired United

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Speaker 2: States Army military analyst. Now let's we're going to debate

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Speaker 2: this idea of compliance versus change in the future.

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Speaker 1: But let's let's head head back here.

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Speaker 2: To what we're seeing in Iran and you saying that

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Speaker 2: this was started with Operation Midnight Hammer. The arguments amongst

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Speaker 2: the social media sets, whether you've got the political left

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Speaker 2: or you've got the woke right, is that Israel dragged

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Speaker 2: the United States into this.

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Speaker 1: That's their continual argument. What say you to that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, not a chance. Ron.

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Speaker 4: We've talked about greatest foreign policy failure post World War

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Speaker 4: two forty seven years. They've been at war with US,

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Speaker 4: have killed Americans in the past, and we've just put

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Speaker 4: up with it. And I think this administration looked at

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Speaker 4: this situation on the ground right now, saw Iran at

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Speaker 4: its weakest. We were going to have a conflict with

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Speaker 4: a run at some point, it's just a matter of when.

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Speaker 4: And so the fact that we're aligned with Israel, who's

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Speaker 4: at its strongest. Now, look look at the look at

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Speaker 4: the the tactical and strategic mistake Hamas makes attacking October seventh,

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Speaker 4: and look what Look where we are now, three two

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Speaker 4: years three years later with with the situation with Iran.

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Speaker 3: How Iran has sponsored that whole situation.

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Speaker 4: So this is the time again to settle all scores

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Speaker 4: and bring bring the Middle East back to some level

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Speaker 4: of peace. The it's it's waiting with the abram Accords,

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Speaker 4: everything is on the doorstep. So no, Israel did not

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Speaker 4: drag us into this. We were eventually going to have

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Speaker 4: a conflict with a run at some point, and if

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Speaker 4: we're going to have that conflict, we might as well

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Speaker 4: do it when it runs out its weakest.

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Speaker 2: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analyst,

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Speaker 2: let's talk about China. And you know, one of the

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Speaker 2: things that's true, and you were one of the first

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Speaker 2: people to bring this up. The Chinese saw what we

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Speaker 2: did with Nicholas Maduro and they said, that's impressive. The

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Speaker 2: world saw exactly what the United States can do when

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Speaker 2: it applies itself. Now you see what's happened with Iran.

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Speaker 2: Does China say the same thing.

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Speaker 4: It's in their best interest that they should. And you know,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump when he meets with the Chinese leaders, I

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Speaker 4: guess in the end and this month or next month,

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Speaker 4: they'll have a lot more leverage, considering that the United

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Speaker 4: States when the situation goes in Iran, well, and we'll

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Speaker 4: control a lot of more than that we have right now,

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Speaker 4: really has China's energy security in the palm of our hands.

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Speaker 4: Hard to say that is that would have happened six

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Speaker 4: months ago. But the fact that we've stopped these ghost

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Speaker 4: shipments coming from Venezuela, then unsanctioned oil that they were

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Speaker 4: taking from there, and then plus twenty percent of whatever

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Speaker 4: they're getting out of the Strait of Hormusin and the

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Speaker 4: Middle Eastern spot.

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Speaker 3: Now again that's got to be fixed.

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Speaker 4: We recognize that this commodity is very volatile, and shutting

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Speaker 4: down the streets hurts India, Japan hurts some of our

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Speaker 4: our Eastern allies as well.

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Speaker 3: But China now is.

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Speaker 4: Really coming to grips with the fact that when the

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Speaker 4: United States says it's going to do something, it's going

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Speaker 4: to do it, and so it.

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Speaker 3: Should pay attention.

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Speaker 4: It's it's proven its military equipment is not up to speed,

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Speaker 4: and that's because it's likely copied from US factories. But

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Speaker 4: they didn't get the whole thing, and then they try

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Speaker 4: to improvise.

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Speaker 2: Now, wait, you're jumping ahead of me, but you brought

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Speaker 2: it up, so let let me let.

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Speaker 1: Me go with you.

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Speaker 2: The talk was was that the Chinese dropped off a

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Speaker 2: lot of missiles to the Iranians, helping them gear up

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Speaker 2: in case this moment would come. The talk after that

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Speaker 2: has been that the Chinese missiles have failed spectacularly and

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Speaker 2: that this is an incredible embarrassment for the politic bureau

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Speaker 2: for ji Jinping. What Chinese weaponry, if any, has been

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Speaker 2: used and what is the take on its efficacy?

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Speaker 4: Well, they have had some missiles deployed there that have

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Speaker 4: not gotten through, have not have failed in that regard,

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Speaker 4: but mostly their air defense systems. In the last six months,

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Speaker 4: the air defense systems that they deployed were used to

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Speaker 4: re establish what they had prior to that midnight Hammer

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Speaker 4: attack along with what Israel did back in June, and

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Speaker 4: they failed miserable. They were out in the first forty

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Speaker 4: eight hours. I mean, it's just not heard of, unheard of.

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Speaker 4: If you want to be a superpower, you have to

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Speaker 4: be able to project power, and if you can't project

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Speaker 4: power to your proxies like they've tried to do, then

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Speaker 4: frankly you're not a superpower.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 4: For whatever reason we've given up this century to the Chinese.

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Speaker 4: You're just acquiesced and said that because of the billion

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Speaker 4: people they have or their technology they're manufacturing. You know,

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Speaker 4: they tried to get upstream and all our supply chains

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Speaker 4: and that's over now as well. So to me, this

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Speaker 4: is such a pivot point within our history, on the

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Speaker 4: history of our country two hund fifty years young.

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Speaker 3: The United States is, but.

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Speaker 4: We're not given a century up for one second to

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Speaker 4: the Chinese. And so I think think that's the message

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Speaker 4: that they're going to get received.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know if it was John Yu or

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Speaker 2: Gordon Chang who and I agree with this, and I

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Speaker 2: have said this before that I believe China is a

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Speaker 2: paper tiger. M there's a lot, a lot of bluster,

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Speaker 2: a lot of screaming, a lot of tough guy. Can

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Speaker 2: they actually take a punch to the nose. They build

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Speaker 2: aircraft carriers. They can't take off from an aircraft carrier,

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Speaker 2: they can't necessarily.

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Speaker 1: Land on an aircraft carrier. This is hard technology.

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Speaker 2: They steal a tremendous amount as you were mentioning, they

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Speaker 2: don't create a tremendous amount of things.

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Speaker 1: They only take.

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Speaker 2: So if you are the If you're the rest of

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Speaker 2: the world watching this, and you are looking at things

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Speaker 2: and believing as you are, that China has shown themselves

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Speaker 2: to be a little bit incapable here and not as strong,

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Speaker 2: and they are now behind the eight ball, and now

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Speaker 2: they're looking in that weakernest kind of kind of position.

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Speaker 2: What is the effect on, for example, Taiwan's safety and

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Speaker 2: security or security of the Pacific room in general.

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Speaker 4: Well, the Chinese could learn a lot from Russia, and

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Speaker 4: that is they can influence Taiwan without taking it. I

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Speaker 4: don't understand this desire or this need to necessarily do that.

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Speaker 4: And what I mean by Russia is Russia decides to

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Speaker 4: invade Ukraine. They really didn't have to that area. In

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Speaker 4: the Dome Boss, they controlled all the politicians, They controlled

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Speaker 4: a great portion of what was going on inside the

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Speaker 4: Ukraine governments. But that wasn't good enough. Well, I'd give

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Speaker 4: the same advice to the Chinese. There's no reason to

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Speaker 4: start a conflict over that. Destroying Taiwan doesn't do any good.

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Speaker 4: And then taking a step further now back that I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure they can do it now anyway without the

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Speaker 4: energy security that's required. You want to start a war,

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Speaker 4: you better have oil reserves and you better be able

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Speaker 4: to support this conflict if it goes for a long time.

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Speaker 4: So I think the Chinese, which are passive anyway in

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Speaker 4: terms of how they think, are going to really rethink

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Speaker 4: about all of their actions when it comes to projecting

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Speaker 4: power on the Pacific.

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Speaker 2: Before I let you go, Major Mike Lyons, retired United

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Speaker 2: States Army, you talk about regime compliance.

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Speaker 1: If that is indeed.

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Speaker 2: The case, there's a real question about boots on the ground,

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Speaker 2: because in order to get regime compliance, are we making

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Speaker 2: the argument that the IRGC gets to stay and terrorize

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Speaker 2: these people, because that doesn't seem to be something that

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Speaker 2: Americans would be super keen on. Do you see a

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Speaker 2: situation where in order to get that compliance. I still

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Speaker 2: don't know if I totally buy into the term where

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Speaker 2: we see American boots on the ground or would this

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Speaker 2: be NATO boots or are there any boots on the ground.

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Speaker 4: So, yeah, regieme compliance meaning that we're not going to

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Speaker 4: parachute some leader in from the outside like happened in

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Speaker 4: seventy nine when Colmini came back and took over. So

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Speaker 4: I think that's what I mean. This person will come

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Speaker 4: from within is what's important. But boots on the ground, right,

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Speaker 4: there's an implied task there. No one wants to talk

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Speaker 4: about this, but there's an implied task of having troops,

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Speaker 4: US troops, somebody to go and check out these nuclear

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Speaker 4: facilities to make sure that they've been destroyed, to make

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Speaker 4: sure that that capability is gone. I think that's going

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Speaker 4: to be insisted upon whoever again finally does surrender, or

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Speaker 4: that'll be part of the deal that we'll have to

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Speaker 4: make with that person. But again, boots on the ground

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Speaker 4: doesn't mean large formations, the first Armored Division, three hundred

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Speaker 4: and sixty main battle tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, air defense platform,

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Speaker 4: that's not what that means. But I do think that

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Speaker 4: there's going to be small unit troop JSOCK level special

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Speaker 4: operators that are going to have to go check to

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Speaker 4: make sure that they're in compliance for what we want

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Speaker 4: them to do.

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Speaker 1: US, Israeli, NATO, who.

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Speaker 4: All of the above, and you know what this is

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Speaker 4: going to be. Victory has a thousand fathers. Defeat is

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Speaker 4: an orphan to quote JFK. Once this victory has been established,

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Speaker 4: everybody will be in the game. The bridget will be back,

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Speaker 4: the French. He'll be back. Everybody will going to want.

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Speaker 3: A piece of this, so the buckle up. We'll have

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Speaker 3: to see what their actions are going to be.

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Speaker 1: Maybe not the Maybe not the Brits. Maybe they can

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Speaker 1: they think could sit this one out.

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Speaker 2: Major Mike Lyons, retired United States Army military analyst.

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Speaker 1: I appreciate you being with us. More to come. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today,