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Speaker 1: So you may have the capacity to explain this market.

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Speaker 1: To me, I can't figure out what's happening now. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is truly, truly weird. We see the producer price

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Speaker 1: index up right, that's what manufacturers are paying. And it's

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Speaker 1: very clear that we're seeing that the tariffs are now

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Speaker 1: moving through to the end consumer, the retailer, and then

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Speaker 1: of course to us. The days of absorbing tariffs are over.

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Speaker 1: And we saw that inflation indeed went up. And one

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Speaker 1: of the few things that President Trump said in his

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Speaker 1: speech Wednesday night when he said inflation was non existent.

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Speaker 1: Sorry that dog won't hunt Tony Katz, Tony Kats today.

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Speaker 1: Good to be here, Good to be with you. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of great economic opportunity. And I do think

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Speaker 1: that President Trump some kind sometimes steps in his own

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Speaker 1: way here. We have had that conversation very often, and

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to shy away from what is reality.

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Speaker 1: But you take a look at the jobs numbers today,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy eight thousand jobs in March when

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Speaker 1: the expectation was fifty nine thousand. You mean it's costing

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Speaker 1: us more to manufacture everything. We're in the middle of

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Speaker 1: a war, and oh, we have more jobs than ever,

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Speaker 1: and yet government jobs went down. It's hard to make

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Speaker 1: sense of it all. It truly is. Doctor Matt Will

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Speaker 1: joins us right now economists at the University of Indianapolis.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to say that I'm not happy. I'm

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Speaker 1: certainly happy to see more jobs. But sometimes a jobs

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Speaker 1: report does not tell a full story. Walk me through

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Speaker 1: what it is that you're seeing here as it just

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Speaker 1: got released this morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, first of all, you know I don't buy it. Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's just talk about this for a moment before we

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Speaker 2: jump into the details. We cover this on your show

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Speaker 2: many times when Biden was president, these massive revisions. We're

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Speaker 2: talking in the million person range of revisions. They're wrong

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Speaker 2: right out of the gate. The President has said the

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Speaker 2: wrong radit right out of the gate. So I do

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Speaker 2: not accept this number. Okay, we'll get into it, but

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Speaker 2: I don't accept it, and I'll tell you why in

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Speaker 2: a little bit. First of all, the head go.

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Speaker 1: Ahead, No, no, no, no, I want to hear first

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Speaker 1: before I start unloading.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Well, let's see what it says. Okay, before I

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Speaker 2: gave you like the end of the story, before I

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Speaker 2: told you the story that's probably the wrong way to

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Speaker 2: approach this. Yeah, the headline plus one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 2: eight thousand, Like you said, this is much more than expected.

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Speaker 2: Private sector amazing. One hundred and forty three thousand up.

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Speaker 2: This is double what the ADP number was two days ago.

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Speaker 2: ADP had sixty two thousand, So they're double the ADP number,

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Speaker 2: which an ADP is overly optimistic. Remember they're a private company.

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Speaker 2: They want to say good news, so the fact that

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Speaker 2: their double ADP tells you something that's fishy. Government minus eight,

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Speaker 2: that's the good news. The good news is government's down

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Speaker 2: three months in a row. Government's shrinking. Thank goodness, we

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Speaker 2: got smaller government. Trump. Everyone sent them a thank you card.

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Speaker 2: Healthcare this was the big driving one of the number,

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Speaker 2: up ninety thousand, and health care. Leisure. You'd think, even

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Speaker 2: with all the stuff going on, Leisures up forty four thousand,

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Speaker 2: transportations up twenty one thousand, goods manufacturing up forty three thousand. Again,

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Speaker 2: this is something that doesn't pass the stinct test. And

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Speaker 2: the reason it doesn't is because if you look at

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Speaker 2: the ISM report which was released yesterday, it's a huge

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Speaker 2: decrease in manufacturing employment. So there's a lot of things

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Speaker 2: in this report that I just don't buy. And I

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Speaker 2: guarantee you in the next two months we will see

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Speaker 2: massive revisions.

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Speaker 1: We now, we did see some revisions from some prior months, right,

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Speaker 1: we saw revisions up for February, for example, But.

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Speaker 2: We have talked about the revisions.

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Speaker 1: We did talk to them about Biden, but the revisions

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Speaker 1: were always down every time we talked about Biden. What

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Speaker 1: happened was they put out a big number and then

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Speaker 1: it got revised downward. A big number revised downward. This

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Speaker 1: is a revision in the opposite direction. So how can

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Speaker 1: we I don't think we can make a comparison here

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Speaker 1: to the Biden administration.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm gonna make a comparison because it's it's fifty

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Speaker 2: to fifty. The January revision was up thirty four thousand.

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Speaker 2: The February revision was down forty one thousand. So we

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Speaker 2: had one good revision from two months ago. We had

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Speaker 2: a bad revision from the previous month. So and they

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Speaker 2: were huge. I mean, we're talking on a February it

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Speaker 2: was down one hundred and thirty three thousand jobs, which

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Speaker 2: was a downward revision of forty one thousand. That's pretty big.

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Speaker 2: So they're just missing the mark. These people in the BLS.

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Speaker 2: It's the same people, by the way, using the same

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Speaker 2: techniques that they used back when Biden was present. They

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Speaker 2: were wrong then and they're wrong now. What more can

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Speaker 2: I tell you? They're wrong and they're not consistent with

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Speaker 2: the ISM Report, which I think has consistently been an

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Speaker 2: accurate report.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: talking about manufacturing. When you talk about the ISM report,

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Speaker 1: and I stated earlier that the tarifs are now being

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Speaker 1: passed through, and we then saw that it showed inflation up,

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Speaker 1: and now you see job growth with inflation up, I

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Speaker 1: agree it sounds odd.

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Speaker 2: But the.

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Speaker 1: Argument that's going to be made is is that if

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Speaker 1: we can't trust these numbers that the BLS puts together,

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Speaker 1: why is there still a BLS? Like why is this

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Speaker 1: still the way we go about doing things? And if

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Speaker 1: the market had been open today, I forgot it's Good Friday,

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Speaker 1: and so therefore the market isn't open. It closes on

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Speaker 1: Good Friday. What do you think their reaction would be

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Speaker 1: to this report?

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Speaker 2: I think it would be a nothing burger. And I

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Speaker 2: sincerely believe that. And you know you say all the

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Speaker 2: time about you know, the TSA should be privatized, and

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Speaker 2: I agree with you. I'm going to take your same

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Speaker 2: logic and apply it to the BLS. The BLS should

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Speaker 2: be shut down and we should privatize it because we

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Speaker 2: have data. You know, I'm doctor Doom. Not now let

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Speaker 2: me give you the fantastic news that came out yesterday.

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Speaker 2: You're not gonna give us fantastic news.

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Speaker 1: Everybody knows that's a setup. By the way, half the

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Speaker 1: audience does call you doctor Doom, and half the audience

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Speaker 1: wants to know if you're single.

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Speaker 2: That's that's been my uh A take from everybody on

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Speaker 2: your reporting. Well, that that means I'm doing my job

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Speaker 2: if half are offended and half are happy. But this

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Speaker 2: is not This is not a setup. The PMI the

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Speaker 2: Manufacturing Index, which is reliable. It's a private industry, real

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Speaker 2: time report. The third month in a row of growing manufacturing,

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Speaker 2: and not in a small way. It's massive. Manufacturing was up,

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Speaker 2: new orders increased significantly. Production in production was up ten

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Speaker 2: percent annualized for the month of March. Everything is going great. Deliveries.

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Speaker 2: Deliveries are up twenty percent in the month.

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Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, Just as a matter of definition,

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Speaker 1: deliveries are the ema the deliverables of the manufactured good.

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Speaker 1: It's one thing to make it. But we're talking about

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Speaker 1: landed at the at the retailer or the consumer. Yes, yes, okay, yes,

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Speaker 1: and now let me correct myself. Deliveries could mean wholesale

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Speaker 1: deliveries or retailer, but it's on its way to the rear.

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Speaker 1: But we understand. We mean that we're talking about that

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Speaker 1: good reaching the retailer. Now is a question of whether

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Speaker 1: or it's being sold from the retailer. That's a second

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Speaker 1: conversation altogether.

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Speaker 2: You got it, You got it. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: the reason their deliveries are up is because inventories have

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Speaker 2: been shrinking at the retail level, so they have to restock.

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Speaker 2: So this is all good news, but there's two pieces

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Speaker 2: of bad news. One is that prices are significantly higher.

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Speaker 2: They are the highest last month for producers than they've

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Speaker 2: been in the entire Trump administration. So this inflation being

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Speaker 2: gone is a false narrative. It's not gone. And exports contracted, well,

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Speaker 2: of course they contracted. The tariffs are reducing import and

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Speaker 2: export activity, and this is what contradicts. This is a

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Speaker 2: stinct test the unemployment report. The reason I don't believe

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Speaker 2: it is because this report showed manufacturing contracting as did

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Speaker 2: which is contradicts the unemployment report. Doesn't make any sense.

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Speaker 2: The real people say, we're not hiring more manufacturers. The

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Speaker 2: government says. We are.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: I said, this report is befuddling that we could see

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Speaker 1: the increase inflation which was in the last PMI report

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Speaker 1: PPI report, We could see that these costs are being

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Speaker 1: passed on. Yet somehow manufacturing is up as a unique

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Speaker 1: unique turn of events. There you talk about the retailers

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Speaker 1: have shrinking inventories, which means they were holding off on

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Speaker 1: having to buy anything new. Right that It wasn't that

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Speaker 1: there weren't things coming. It's that they decided for their

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Speaker 1: own business practices, it was best to hold off, and

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Speaker 1: now is the time that they have to to make

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Speaker 1: up for it. There are seasonal things happening and all

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Speaker 1: sorts of things. Let me go back to the job

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Speaker 1: support really quick, because we see the decrease in government

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Speaker 1: jobs by eighteen thousand and I do cheer that and

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Speaker 1: the biggest increase was in healthcare. Are you now, yes,

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Speaker 1: all this can be revised. I get your point. But

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Speaker 1: when you see the top grower being healthcare, you like

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Speaker 1: that or you think that's assignm an issue.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't concern me because health care is a big

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Speaker 2: it's very broad net. I've said this before. One of

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Speaker 2: the things in the United States that we don't understand,

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Speaker 2: and I wish I could educate the public on this.

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Speaker 2: Our health care costs are not higher than the rest

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Speaker 2: of the world. People think that, oh, it's cheaper in Finland,

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Speaker 2: is cheaper in Germany. No, it's not per unit, it's

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Speaker 2: cheaper in the United States. We consume more volume of

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Speaker 2: health care. We have such access to healthcare that no

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Speaker 2: one in the world has. We run in for a sniffle,

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Speaker 2: We run in for a I got a strained you know, wrist,

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Speaker 2: I run in and I go to the doctor. You

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Speaker 2: go to Canada for a string rich you got an

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Speaker 2: eighteen month wait. So I don't mind the fact that

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Speaker 2: we are consumers and we buy more healthcare. Do I

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Speaker 2: wish we were healthier? Do I wish Maha was more successful?

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Speaker 2: Of course I do, But I think it's not bad

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Speaker 2: that we're consuming more health care as a private capitalist economy.

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Speaker 2: Good for us. We're choosing where to spend our dollars,

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Speaker 2: and apparently it's on good health.

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Speaker 1: That's an interesting take regarding volume. Let's move it over

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Speaker 1: to Iran and these oil prices, which this week has

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Speaker 1: not only seen below one hundred dollars, it is now

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Speaker 1: seen above one hundred dollars. We've seen the West Texas

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Speaker 1: crewed higher than the Brent crud, the West Texas coming

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Speaker 1: out of the ground, the Brent crud coming out of

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Speaker 1: out of the oceans. That is the way I give

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Speaker 1: the basic general idea of what these two different oils are,

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Speaker 1: and these are the two that I look at. Then

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Speaker 1: we have the conversation of President Trump's addressed to the nation,

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Speaker 1: where he says to Europe, go over to this trade

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Speaker 1: of horn moves and go take care of your things

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Speaker 1: and go get your oil or buy from us. But

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Speaker 1: the strain of our moves is going to open naturally.

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Speaker 1: Don't worry about it, which is his way of saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: oil markets, you're being ridiculous. It's all going to be fine.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if that works or not, but let's

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Speaker 1: talk about what this war is doing to a worldwide economy.

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing? Well, what I think the president

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Speaker 2: is doing is in concept correct. Europe needs to get

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Speaker 2: their butt in gear and get over and open up

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Speaker 2: the straight of her moves. But he's wrong in that, Like,

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Speaker 2: We're going to be fine. Oil is a fungible asset.

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Speaker 2: It's like when you pour a glass of water into

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Speaker 2: a bucket of water. It's indistinguishable from the rest. Can

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Speaker 2: we have laws and rules that prevent other countries from

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Speaker 2: using our oil? Can we be independent, self sustaining. Of

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Speaker 2: course we can, but that doesn't matter because the rest

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Speaker 2: of the world still needs oil and we are not

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Speaker 2: an independent economy. We are touched by others. As much

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Speaker 2: as as Trump doesn't like that, we can lead the war.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the world can lead us into a recession.

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Speaker 2: Number two thousand and eight. We led the world into

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Speaker 2: a recession. Guess what can happen now? The world can

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Speaker 2: lead us into a recession. The fact that we just

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Speaker 2: saw today Turkey, which regulates the price of energy, is

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Speaker 2: going to increase the price of energy for the first

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Speaker 2: time in ten years. It was either Italy or France.

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Speaker 2: I forgot to see the byline on that have decided

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Speaker 2: they're going to continue subsidizing fuel for their citizens. Let

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Speaker 2: me tell you the insanity of this. Stop subsidizing your

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Speaker 2: citizens and go open up the straits. Then you don't

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Speaker 2: have to subsidize your citizens. So these countries are making

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Speaker 2: bad decisions because they're afraid to deal with the problem.

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Speaker 2: Trump was brave enough to deal with the problem. They

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Speaker 2: need to go out and deal with it. And I

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Speaker 2: don't know that the president is going to walk away

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Speaker 2: and let others open the straits. I don't think he

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Speaker 2: can do that. I think they've got to be open

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Speaker 2: and everyone else's chicken, So he's probably going to be

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Speaker 2: the one that has to do it.

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Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that. By the way, I don't

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Speaker 1: disagree with that. The idea that President Trump's gonna say

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Speaker 1: it is and it's going to keep oil to an

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Speaker 1: argument artificially high or high. That's not something that is

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Speaker 1: going to work going into midterms. It's not going to

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Speaker 1: work for an economy large. But he does talk a

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Speaker 1: lot about our oil production, our energy production, So he

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Speaker 1: talks about us having more than everybody else, and we

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Speaker 1: do have a lot of energy that we can afford

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Speaker 1: to sell. The question is who's the buyer?

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Speaker 2: You know, first of all, that's a great question, but

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Speaker 2: let me fix one of the things at President said.

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Speaker 2: I was a fan of his speech. I just wish

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Speaker 2: he would have given it four weeks ago. Exactly. It's

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Speaker 2: just okay, thank you for the information. We could have

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Speaker 2: heard this four weeks ago. But he said some things

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Speaker 2: that we're just technically not correct, which is typical Trump.

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Speaker 2: You know, the most proven oil reserves are not the

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Speaker 2: United States, as he said, it's Venezuela, it's Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 2: it's Russia. We are the biggest producer, we are extracting

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Speaker 2: the most, and that is true, we're producing the most,

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Speaker 2: but that's not the whole story. Give me question again,

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Speaker 2: because I got I got myself distracted. The question mindor professor.

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Speaker 1: No, the question we can answer thirty seconds or last.

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Speaker 1: Who's the buyer? The buyer is everybody. It's a fungible market.

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Speaker 1: You cannot distinguish unless we have laws banning the sale

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Speaker 1: of our energy to other countries. Everyone is the buyer

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Speaker 1: of everyone's oil. That's why restrictions on Russia didn't work.

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Speaker 1: That's why restrictions on Iran have never worked. It is

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Speaker 1: a fungible asset, and everyone is a buyer for everyone

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Speaker 1: else's oil. We'll dig more into this, doctor Mattwell, economist

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Speaker 1: at the University of Indianapolis. I appreciate you being with us.

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Speaker 1: More coming up. I'm Tony Katz.