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Speaker 1: So what can one expect in a peace deal between

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Speaker 1: Russia and Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: I mean, never mind that you might not get a

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Speaker 2: deal that you know, you might.

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Speaker 1: Not get them to agree, but what possibly do you

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Speaker 1: think would be the agreement? How do you get Ukraine

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Speaker 1: to accept the fact that they're going to lose land?

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Speaker 2: Wait, they're not going to lose land.

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Speaker 1: How are you gonna get Russia to accept the fact

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Speaker 1: that they've been doing this for three years and they'll

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Speaker 1: have nothing to show for it except the pile of

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Speaker 1: dead bodies against an army that should have taken three

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Speaker 1: hours to defeat. Tony Katz Tony Kats today, good to

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Speaker 1: be with you. Major Mike Leines joins me right now,

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Speaker 1: retired United States Army wes appoint graduate military analyst up

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Speaker 1: and down your cable news dials, and of course our

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Speaker 1: guy right here.

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Speaker 2: The argument is, Major Lions that.

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Speaker 1: Trump is going to sit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska

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Speaker 1: and somehow come up with a deal that he's going

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Speaker 1: to send to Vladimir's Lensky and everything's going to.

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Speaker 2: Work out fine, and he's going to say yes to it.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be great.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to the odds of Ukraine accepting a deal.

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Speaker 1: What is it that the Russians offered up as a

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Speaker 1: possible deal.

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Speaker 3: So the Russians still have a maximist, maximalist objective here.

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Speaker 3: They want basically to take over the Dombas region, the

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Speaker 3: area that they currently have militarily occupied since twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 3: in addition to other land on the map that would

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Speaker 3: from again from a military perspective, would give them kind

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Speaker 3: of a clearer shot if they wanted to come back

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Speaker 3: and do this again in three or four years, towards

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Speaker 3: towards Kiev and towards other strategic locations inside inside of Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: They want the Velenski government out. They still have the

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Speaker 3: same objectives that the strategic objectives that they've had since

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Speaker 3: the very beginning.

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Speaker 4: So they haven't changed.

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Speaker 3: And so I'm not sure exactly what the president is

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Speaker 3: going to do here, especially if Kiev and the link

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Speaker 3: he's not part of this negotiation on any level.

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Speaker 1: I want to interrupt you for a moment, and you

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Speaker 1: forgive me, because I want to talk about what the

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Speaker 1: strategic objective is as I have understood it, the objective

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Speaker 1: was always how much lands can you get? Now, Vladimir

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Speaker 1: Putin said, Also, the Ukrainian government is corrupt and I

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Speaker 1: think it was Nazi this and Laura knows and they

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Speaker 1: have to go. They seem to have dropped that part

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Speaker 1: of it. So the objective is still a land grab

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Speaker 1: or is there something else to play?

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Speaker 4: No, it's clearly a land grab. It has to.

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Speaker 3: I mean, how does Vladimir Putin claim any kind of

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Speaker 3: victory if he doesn't have a land grab because he's

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Speaker 3: not going to change the government inside of Ukraine, so

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Speaker 3: you know, he wants to have something that he can

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Speaker 3: bring back to show for what Russia's sacrifice over the

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Speaker 3: past few years, which again is why I don't see

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Speaker 3: them not agreeing to anything unless they get this land grab,

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Speaker 3: unless they get this region and the Domebous.

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Speaker 4: But then on the flip side of that, that.

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Speaker 3: Seems to where to be where Zelenski and the government

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Speaker 3: we think is still caving in or still dug in

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Speaker 3: on not giving that up. I mean Trump, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's kind of given away the game a little bit

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Speaker 3: when he had him in his office with the Vice

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Speaker 3: President when he started saying he doesn't have the cards,

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Speaker 3: and so from his perspective, the cards are specifically that

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Speaker 3: land that he doesn't control anymore. So again you put

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Speaker 3: it all together, I think they're going to be at

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Speaker 3: loggerheads very quickly on Friday. I'm not sure they're going

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Speaker 3: to have any kind of agreement or any kind of deal.

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Speaker 1: Talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired and United States Army

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Speaker 1: military analyst, Trump wants just the fighting to stop, and

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Speaker 1: Trump I would argue, makes no difference to him if

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Speaker 1: Danetski and lahans because this Dunbas region is giving up

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Speaker 1: Kishon and some other spots if that is given up.

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Speaker 1: Although there might be a hey, you're pushing too much here.

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Speaker 1: As Ukraine sees it, giving up land is a non starter.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to do that. But that's the argument

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Speaker 1: for a permanent peacekeeping force. That's the argument for permanent

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Speaker 1: troops in the eastern part of Ukraine to keep Russia

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Speaker 1: at bay or make them stop altogether. So what Ukraine's

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Speaker 1: position seems to be is, hey, NATO, do this because

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Speaker 1: it's in your best interest, save our country.

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Speaker 2: Keep the Russians at bay at your.

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Speaker 1: Cost, and we'll just keep taking whatever it is we

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Speaker 1: can get from you.

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Speaker 2: That seems to be the Vladimir's Lensky position.

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Speaker 3: And I just don't see Russia though. There's not enough

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Speaker 3: leverage on Russia for them to stop in order to

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Speaker 3: gain their strategic objectives. So that's a great position for

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Speaker 3: Zelenski to have, and I think seeing much more support

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Speaker 3: coming from Europe be seeing the president also speaking the

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Speaker 3: same way. But if you go back and looking for

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Speaker 3: a model in history, right you look at the date

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Speaker 3: and the cords that they had nineteen ninety five, right

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Speaker 3: where the first objective was just to stop the shooting altogether.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's Trump. I think going into this,

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Speaker 3: that's the initial art of the deal here. He just

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Speaker 3: wants the shooting to stop.

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Speaker 4: Now. The shooting stop.

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Speaker 3: Helps both sides, right, It helps Ukrainians and it helps

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Speaker 3: I think it helps the Russians more frankly, because I

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Speaker 3: think they've got to be much more exhausted here. But

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Speaker 3: when you go this, you keep going down a step

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Speaker 3: further because the stakes here are just more global and

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Speaker 3: not just this. Really, it's not just the regional conflict

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Speaker 3: now anymore, with all of Europe involved, without the enforcement piece,

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Speaker 3: without making sure that NATO boots are on the ground

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Speaker 3: there to enforce it, I don't see how any peace

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Speaker 3: treaty between Russia and Ukraine would mean anything to Vladimir

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Speaker 3: Putin anyway.

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Speaker 4: So I think that's the challenge that this whole thing fits.

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Speaker 3: And we've talked about the redline for Russia has always

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Speaker 3: been Ukraine not being into NATO.

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Speaker 1: So the Dating Agreement, by the way, ended the war

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Speaker 1: in Bosnia.

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Speaker 2: So that's the reference they're talking to.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Lyons, retired to United States Army military analyst.

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Speaker 1: You're making the statement that Trump's walking into a meeting,

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Speaker 1: and I would argue, must know based on your commentary

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Speaker 1: that there's no reason for Russia to stop if they

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Speaker 1: believe they can just stay at it and stay at it,

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Speaker 1: and stay at it and eventually kill enough Ukrainians to

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Speaker 1: make them walk away from this land get something. But

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Speaker 1: that's saying that NATO isn't interested in stopping them. Now

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Speaker 1: that NATO has moved from two percent GDP to five

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Speaker 1: percent GDP, the Secretary General Mark Rout clearly understands Trump

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Speaker 1: is one hundred percent a Trump guy. Anything Trump wants

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Speaker 1: this is great, This is wonderful because I think he

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Speaker 1: sees it as a better opportunity. Mean for NATO's future,

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Speaker 1: is NATO down with sitting idly by and letting Russia

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Speaker 1: killing up Ukrainians, never mind letting enough Russians die to

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Speaker 1: get a couple thousand acres or hectares of land and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's it, because nobody's gonna believe that Russia is going

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Speaker 1: to stop from this. So first things first, NATO, okay,

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Speaker 1: with the idea of allowing this to continue.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a hard sell for that to happen,

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Speaker 3: no matter what, because of the fact that Russia again

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Speaker 3: doesn't stop. I think Putin has to lock in some

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Speaker 3: kind of games and this has got to lock in

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Speaker 3: the land there. And you know, NATO, as Trump has

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Speaker 3: pointed out, still can NATO countries can still provide a

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Speaker 3: lot more support to Ukraine aside from what I'll call

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Speaker 3: ministerial support at this point. But so you know, again

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Speaker 3: you go back to Trump, he's just looking to strike

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Speaker 3: a deal. To me, this instinctively looks to me very transactional,

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Speaker 3: and this is what he does best. Look, he just

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Speaker 3: got that deal done last week with Armenia and az Abrajan.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he's ready to go on to the next

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Speaker 3: you know, I want to end the war here, and

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Speaker 3: that's what he's looking to have a brand again. I

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Speaker 3: just think we're setting ourselves up for a great disappointment

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Speaker 3: because Putin knows that Putin knows he's got some kind

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Speaker 3: of leverage here, and I think Putin still believes that

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Speaker 3: Trump thinks.

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Speaker 4: That he has to take that he needs.

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Speaker 3: To move Ukraine off this thing about giving up Bland,

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Speaker 3: and they're not just going to do that.

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Speaker 1: So they're not going to do it, and Zelensky has

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Speaker 1: to believe he's got NATO support to not do that,

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Speaker 1: which is but Trump at odds with NATO in a way,

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Speaker 1: because Trump being transactional, right, the two rules of trump

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Speaker 1: Ism apply.

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Speaker 2: The first rule of trump is is Trump wins. The

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Speaker 2: second rule of trump.

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Speaker 1: Ism is that a deal can always be made as

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Speaker 1: long as it adheres to the first rule of trump Ism.

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Speaker 1: And the win is I stopped the war, just like

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Speaker 1: I said I was going to do.

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Speaker 2: But Trump is not a fool. I don't care wh

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Speaker 2: what leftist media says.

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Speaker 1: He's walking into a meeting knowing that it's not going

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Speaker 1: to work out. That doesn't seem to be a very

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Speaker 1: trump like position, So now play it to the other side.

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Speaker 1: The meeting happened. Vladimir Putin isn't interested in any deal.

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Speaker 1: He isn't going to agree to any deal. Even if

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Speaker 1: he says he'd agree to a deal, it's not going

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Speaker 1: to happen. What should Trump's move be if you're advising him.

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Speaker 3: Well, then if that's the case, then he has to

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Speaker 3: come full circle with support and send overload military equipment

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Speaker 3: into Ukraine. He has to force southern nations to do

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Speaker 3: the same. Thanks as you saw putting sanctions on India,

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Speaker 3: what that did already, you know, try to ratchet up

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Speaker 3: this economic power. I think deep down he doesn't believe

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Speaker 3: in that because he doesn't think that. He thinks that

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Speaker 3: countries will always work around that. But he's kind of

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Speaker 3: boxed himself into a corner and Vladimir Putin might likely

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Speaker 3: make him, you know, try to do that.

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Speaker 4: But I think deep down he doesn't want to do that.

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Speaker 4: He wants this over with.

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Speaker 2: So but if we did not overwhelp, I understand.

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Speaker 1: But if it's not over with, Trump is going to

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Speaker 1: send in weaponry, but he's certainly not going to send

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Speaker 1: in American troops. But we're not asking answering the question

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Speaker 1: of does this mean that NATO troops are gonna are

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Speaker 1: gonna go in and play some kind of peacekeeping force

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Speaker 1: if no deal can be made. Can NATO nations, really

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Speaker 1: European nations afford to let Russia engage this war of

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Speaker 1: attrition to his victory.

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Speaker 3: No. And that's why if I'm advising Trump, you know,

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Speaker 3: without that reinforcement, without that you know, that way to

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Speaker 3: take this a mechanism in order to enforce this peace treaty,

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Speaker 3: all we're doing is risking this that I'm out for

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Speaker 3: Russia to basically reload. I think they need a break

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Speaker 3: right now. I think the Russians are somewhat culminated in

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Speaker 3: certain areas. They've they've gained I had some games on

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Speaker 3: the ground, but they're on the verge of certain areas

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Speaker 3: and particular that if they had somewhat of a little

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Speaker 3: bit of a strategic pause or tactical pause on the

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Speaker 3: ground right now, that would go along the way. Plus

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Speaker 3: they're more concerned about you're seeing deep strikes now by

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Speaker 3: the Ukraine military and the drone strikes that are taking place.

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Speaker 3: So Russia needs this as a pause. So they might

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Speaker 3: do anything, in say anything to get that pause. But again,

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Speaker 3: I just I'm not in the long run, I think

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Speaker 3: it's just going to be them trying to run out

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Speaker 3: the clock a little bit until they can find a

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Speaker 3: fracture within the US and the European allies.

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Speaker 1: Before I let you go, what is the situation in

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Speaker 1: Russia itself as you know it and their feel of

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Speaker 1: this war? Is it having an effect on internal politics,

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Speaker 1: as you know, all politics are local. Is it having

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Speaker 1: an effect on Putin there that maybe he needs to

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Speaker 1: wrap this up to keep everybody calm back on the

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Speaker 1: home front.

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Speaker 3: Now, it's my understanding that this is solidifying Vladimir Putin's

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Speaker 3: control of Russia.

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Speaker 4: It's not.

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Speaker 3: You know, we've projected Russia to be this Soviet Union.

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Speaker 3: Pollet burrow back from the eighties and nineties. I've kind

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Speaker 3: of fallen into this trapped and a little more research

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Speaker 3: and recognized that, you know, Russia only has one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty or one hundred and fifty million people, and

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Speaker 3: they're they're not this, They're not the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 4: So if this was the former Soviet Union, that might

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Speaker 4: be the case.

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Speaker 3: But Vadimir Putin has a clear stranglehold on all things

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Speaker 3: that going on. Russia controls the media, controls anything that's

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Speaker 3: from the communication side, so there's no from what we're seeing,

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Speaker 3: there's no you know, revolution, and there's no uprising that's

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Speaker 3: going to take place. He's fully in control, fully controls

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Speaker 3: the message, and from his perspective, the United States is

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Speaker 3: still an enemy, and I think that's being projected still

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Speaker 3: inside of Russia, and the United States will get involved

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Speaker 3: with this position. Now, we'll get involved with Ukraine, and

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Speaker 3: it'll just make him stronger inside of Russia.

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Speaker 1: Major Mike Lyons retired the United States Army. I appreciate

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Speaker 1: you taking the time to be with us. Follow them

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Speaker 1: on Twitter X m Aj. Mike Lyons Lyons Major Mike

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Speaker 1: Lyons on Twitter XX appreciate you.

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Speaker 2: More is coming up on Tony Katz