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Speaker 1: Lie from val Hartband and the Crossroads of America.

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Speaker 2: It's Tony Katz today.

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Speaker 1: So I think it is very very acceptable to say

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Speaker 1: that when the President says that he's been speaking with

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Speaker 1: the Iranians, it's all right to ask, well, who are

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Speaker 1: you talking with? Because well, the Iranians say that they're

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Speaker 1: not talking, but the Iranians lie about everything. They could

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Speaker 1: just be engaged in a propaganda war because they don't

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Speaker 1: want their people to know that they're negotiating with the

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Speaker 1: Great Satan. Then again, maybe Donald Trump isn't speaking with anybody.

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Speaker 1: And when the US and the Israelis say that they're

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Speaker 1: coming up with a plan that could end this war soon,

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Speaker 1: maybe it is to calm the oil markets. One thing

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Speaker 1: I can say about this administration is that they are

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Speaker 1: not afraid of the propaganda. They're not afraid of the misdirection.

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Speaker 1: But if a conversation's happening, with whom is it happening?

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Speaker 1: Because there doesn't seem to be anybody in charge yet

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Speaker 1: the bombs still drop from Iran, hitting Tel Aviv injuring six,

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz, Tony kats today, Good to be here, Good

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Speaker 1: to be with you. Major Mike Lyons joins me right now,

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Speaker 1: retired United States Army military analyst works with West Point,

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Speaker 1: And I think that this has taken a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: you know, the people who hate Trump and hate all

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Speaker 1: this and think that we're destined to lose and nothing

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Speaker 1: can be in Iran and we're just terrible. You know,

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Speaker 1: people like Senator Chris Murphy and others, they'll take any

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Speaker 1: moment to disparage President Trump, and so I pay no

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Speaker 1: attention to them. But for the rest of us who

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Speaker 1: are looking at this objectively, who in the world is

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Speaker 1: the president or the administration speaking to when we have

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Speaker 1: killed the leadership. You've got a moj Batah Kamani who

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Speaker 1: in some kind of mental of non physical distress, the

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Speaker 1: son who is a going to take over as the

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Speaker 1: new Iatola who nobody has seen. Basically, they're being run

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Speaker 1: by Iatola auto pen Who in the world are we

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Speaker 1: negotiating with as you see it.

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Speaker 3: So it's been reported that's the head of parliament right

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Speaker 3: now in Iran, But the IRGC is running everything right now.

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Speaker 2: They have to be.

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Speaker 3: This is you know, they've been running the regime for

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Speaker 3: forty seven years and this is kind of a classic

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Speaker 3: Stalinist You know, Communist Marxism type organization that they're actually running,

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Speaker 3: and it's cloaked in this Islamic fanaticism. Frankly, I think

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Speaker 3: the you know we are you know, anybody who's alive

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Speaker 3: right now in Iran is a relive for a reason.

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Speaker 3: I think we've talked about regime compliance before, because it's

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Speaker 3: going to be difficult to change the whole regime. Ala Johnny,

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Speaker 3: the guy that was killed last week, was maybe the

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Speaker 3: last one they thought was going to be compliant, and

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Speaker 3: he decided to get out on on the internet and

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Speaker 3: say that he wasn't going to be and then the

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Speaker 3: next thing, you know, he's dead. So you know, they're

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Speaker 3: going down the list of israel Is well inside their

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Speaker 3: intel community. But I still think this war is going

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Speaker 3: to go on for weeks, a lot longer than a

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Speaker 3: lot of people think. It's not over any time soon.

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Speaker 3: The president is trying to assuage the markets and say

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Speaker 3: it's going to be over soon, but I think that

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Speaker 3: you know, he's extended these deadlines.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 3: He went from a very dangerous forty eight hours that

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Speaker 3: would have ended last night to now five days from now, which, oh,

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Speaker 3: by the way, is when the Jaysock package arrives from

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Speaker 3: Fort Bragg and the Marines will also be on station.

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Speaker 1: Really quickly describe the Jaysock package to everybody.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so it looks, you know, from reports and from

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Speaker 3: what's been seen on manifests, seventy fifth Rangers, Delta and

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Speaker 3: the fifth Special Forces Group, looks like they're on planes

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Speaker 3: and they're heading to the Middle East. The eighty second

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Speaker 3: Airborne there as well, probably twenty five hundred to three

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Speaker 3: thousand troops to go along with the twenty five hundred

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Speaker 3: that already exists on the Marines.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 3: We had about that many in Syria that was there

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Speaker 3: under no authorization of use of military force. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I was surprised when that happened, you know, well after

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Speaker 3: we were out of Iraq in the late let's say,

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Speaker 3: you know, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen. So again, I've always

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Speaker 3: said we're likely going to put some troops inside of

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Speaker 3: Iran at some point, not large formations, not the first

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Speaker 3: Armored Division, not three hundred main battle tanks. But the

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Speaker 3: President in order to get what I'm calling a visual

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Speaker 3: signal victory as part of his visible leverage policy, is

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Speaker 3: he's going to have to show all Americans that we're

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Speaker 3: winning or we have won. And the only way to

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Speaker 3: do that, frankly, is put a US flags planted somewhere

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Speaker 3: inside of Iran.

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Speaker 1: Now, JAYSOK, we should be clear stands for Joint Special

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Speaker 1: Operations Command talking to Major Mike Clients retired to United

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Speaker 1: States Army military analyst. Before we get into the possibility

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Speaker 1: of some level of troops on the ground, whether that

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Speaker 1: be carg Islands or elsewhere. We know the USS Tripoli

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Speaker 1: is now there, while the geralds Ford has been pulled

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Speaker 1: out because of a fire on board that has headed

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Speaker 1: out to create for for repairs. We go back to

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Speaker 1: this idea of who they're talking to, and you bring

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Speaker 1: up the idea of regime compliance. Regime compliance means that

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Speaker 1: there's still some level of the regime in control and

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Speaker 1: in power, which says to the Iranian people, hey, you

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Speaker 1: know all that talk about you rising up and as

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Speaker 1: Benjamin Attanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel said, creating the

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Speaker 1: conditions so you can control your own destiny and take

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Speaker 1: back your power that doesn't exist. That's all just mouthpiece

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Speaker 1: nonsense here. So how does regime compliance get President Trump

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Speaker 1: to be able to turn to the American people, never

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Speaker 1: mind the world community and say success told you just

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Speaker 1: that easy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to have to be done

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Speaker 2: in pockets.

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Speaker 3: With ninety million people spread across a very large country,

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Speaker 3: Iran is going to have to build itself up in

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Speaker 3: small areas, in small regions as well. I'm the bus

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Speaker 3: siege that the civilian army in Iran think like kind

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Speaker 3: of like a homeland security plus the local police force.

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Speaker 3: That organization has to turn on the IRGC, who has

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Speaker 3: their thumb and fingerprints everywhere and their shadows everywhere. That

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Speaker 3: if that happens, then perhaps you'll get you'll get some

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Speaker 3: level of compliance inside some of the small little cities

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Speaker 3: until it finally gets into Tehran because we don't want

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Speaker 3: a civil war. We don't want necessarily that to happen.

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Speaker 3: But I but I do think that you know, with

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Speaker 3: the regime compliance, we've seen it happen in the past.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's happened in Venezuela. Fundamentally we took out

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Speaker 3: the main guy, but that regime is still in place,

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Speaker 3: and we've seen it in places like Northern Ireland for example.

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Speaker 2: So again it's it's possible.

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Speaker 3: If you look at history, you know, the Iranians, though

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Speaker 3: the IRGC is a special kind of fanaticism when it

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Speaker 3: comes to what they're doing, and it might be a

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Speaker 3: lot more difficult, which which just means it's going to

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Speaker 3: take a little bit long longer.

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Speaker 1: And I'm also somebody who looks at Venezuela and says,

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Speaker 1: you can't tell me that Elsa Rodriguez has all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden turned into the good guy when she's as

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Speaker 1: much of a hardline. Are certainly bought into Maduro's nonsense.

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Speaker 1: The Hugo shaves nonsense as Nicholas Maduro, And so you

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Speaker 1: still don't have what you could have there, although life

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Speaker 1: has greatly improved as opposed to Iran, where the text

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Speaker 1: messages go out, if you protest, we will kill you.

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Speaker 1: That is what the IRGC is sending. So now we

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Speaker 1: get back to the idea of how the US is

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Speaker 1: maneuvering the USS Tripoli. You have other amphibious warships heading

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Speaker 1: to the area. Four thousand marines. I'm going to go

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Speaker 1: out on a limb, having no military expertise whatsoever, but

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Speaker 1: having the ability to read a book. Four thousand marines

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Speaker 1: could take carg Island in about seventeen and a half minutes,

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Speaker 1: and fifteen of those minutes would be like, hey, look cool,

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Speaker 1: we're on Carg Island. That doesn't seem like a massive

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Speaker 1: undertaking for the Marines and for the assets they would

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Speaker 1: have around the island. This is where the oil is

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Speaker 1: for the Iranians, comes in and out and gives them

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Speaker 1: their hard currency. Is that step number one.

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Speaker 3: I think that would be a very difficult mission for

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Speaker 3: the Marines. I think that there's a lot of things

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Speaker 3: that could go wrong. That would be a D Day

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Speaker 3: kind of invasion. I think we've hit some of the

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Speaker 3: military targets there, but there's dug in resources. I'm sure

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Speaker 3: inside of Carg Island again IRGC elements that are there,

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Speaker 3: and we have to do everything in this in this

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Speaker 3: world under zero casualty operation. I think it'd be very,

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Speaker 3: very difficult. So I don't necessarily see Marines storming the

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Speaker 3: beach there. I see them eventually getting there. But I

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Speaker 3: do see again, go back to Jaysok, that Joint Special

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Speaker 3: Ops Commands, the really the elite soldiers we have in

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Speaker 3: our country, think Israeli commandos back from the seventies, that's

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Speaker 3: you know, a pretty good cadre of folks there they

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Speaker 3: likely fast rope in like you saw in Mogadishu. You

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Speaker 3: saw in that more of an air assault, perhaps even

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Speaker 3: airborne operation, get in on the island and then overwhelm

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Speaker 3: those forces quickly and then provide a path because the

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Speaker 3: Marines will likely still try to come in from the

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Speaker 3: beach and that'll be a great photo opportunity for them.

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Speaker 3: And you heard Lindsay Graham call it an an Eugma

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Speaker 3: moment again, but I think, I think again that's the

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Speaker 3: visual that they're looking for. But to just to say

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Speaker 3: it will happen easily, I think is a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a bridge too far, and we'll continue to soften

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Speaker 3: that place up for many, many weeks before we do that.

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Speaker 1: I think talking to Major Mike Lyons, retired to the

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Speaker 1: United States Army military analyst, and it's always a good

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Speaker 1: reminder that I think we can take thee quickly doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean that that's the reality. It's certainly not the way

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Speaker 1: one should plan. And you are correct that we do

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Speaker 1: live in a society that will only accept zero casualties,

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Speaker 1: which leads people to the idea of is this worth

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Speaker 1: it right? That brings us to the idea of what

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Speaker 1: is winning now? Again, I have stated, and you've heard

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Speaker 1: me talk about this, if the regime in any way

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Speaker 1: stay is, I don't know what we were doing here.

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Speaker 1: Has there been a conversation and does the military accept

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Speaker 1: this conversation as the idea of there are certain things

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Speaker 1: that could be happening a degradation of Iranian capability that

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Speaker 1: would be considered Okay, we don't have to worry about

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Speaker 1: this for another twenty five years, or another seventeen years,

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Speaker 1: another thirty two years, or another eight years. Does that exist?

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Speaker 1: Is that the way they're playing the game right now?

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Speaker 3: I think we're already going in that direction. But I

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Speaker 3: don't think that's going to be good enough for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: I think he wants that visual signal. He wants it's

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Speaker 3: something we can see. The military can tell them that

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Speaker 3: we've set them back twenty five years their ballistic missile capabilities,

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Speaker 3: nuclear sites and the like. But until we put people

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Speaker 3: on the ground there that actually have recovered the enriched uranium,

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Speaker 3: for example, half a ton of that, which is again

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Speaker 3: not going in the back of a special ops helicopter someplace.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be a big op to do that.

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to have he wants a visual

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Speaker 3: and the upside though Saudi Arabia's now involved guitars uae Oman,

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Speaker 3: the Arab States have now turned against Iran. I think

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Speaker 3: that's a it's a big change. It's one thing about

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Speaker 3: fighting a war and another thing about waging a war.

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Speaker 3: And the United States, you don't want to fight us

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Speaker 3: in a war because we'll beat up one side down

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Speaker 3: the other. And I think that's been true in history,

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Speaker 3: you go back to even Vietnam. But the waging war aspect,

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Speaker 3: I think that this administration is getting right. I think

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Speaker 3: it's fine that we threaten their electrical grid. I think

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Speaker 3: it's absolutely fine that we try to take over the

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Speaker 3: there the refinement facilities. So I think that's absolutely fine.

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Speaker 3: That's how you wage war against another country. That's what

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Speaker 3: it's all about. And now i'd like to see a

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Speaker 3: little more congressional involvement with this, but I'm not sure

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Speaker 3: that there's enough in Congress that will ever get by

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Speaker 3: this concept of Donald Trump doing this. But again, all

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Speaker 3: of these problems from the last fifty years are getting

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Speaker 3: settled right now, and that's what we need to do.

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Speaker 3: And again I see Trump in this administration waging war

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Speaker 3: and not just fighting the war, and I think that

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Speaker 3: from the military perspective, it's going to continue.

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Speaker 1: You've had Saudi Arabia guitar, the UAE expelling Iranian diplomats.

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Speaker 1: They've made their decision. The question is does that decision

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Speaker 1: continue to be made. Is there is there a feel

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Speaker 1: that there is a long term strategy now amongst Mid

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Speaker 1: East nations to no matter what comes, marginalize Iran, do

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Speaker 1: away with Iran's influence and their desires to be a

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Speaker 1: hegemonic power, and say we will work amongst ourselves to

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Speaker 1: create tomorrow where they're not in charge, We're in charge.

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Speaker 1: And does that involve Israel in any way?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think Israel gets involved on the on the

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Speaker 3: capitalism side, on the market side, but not necessarily on

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Speaker 3: the alliance side.

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Speaker 2: Let's let's put it that way.

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Speaker 3: I mean, these air nations are thick from a cultural perspective.

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Speaker 3: Although Iran's Iranians are different, they're Persians, they don't necessarily

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Speaker 3: consider themselves Arabs, and the Arab countries really had to

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Speaker 3: get along with them just from proximity.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's you know, the.

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Speaker 3: Distance from Iran to Kuwait, for example, in Saudi Arabia

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Speaker 3: and those desalization points as well within artillery range, ballistic

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Speaker 3: missile range and the like, so they've had to get

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Speaker 3: along with them for necessity. Now they've also tolerated the

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Speaker 3: Iranians controlling the Straits of Ramutzas for as long as

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Speaker 3: they have, and the rest of the world has as well,

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Speaker 3: which again is another thing I don't understand why the

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Speaker 3: rest of the world isn't getting on board with that,

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Speaker 3: because the Iranians, you know, should not have that kind

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Speaker 3: of power to control that.

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Speaker 2: And you're going.

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Speaker 3: To see a very big push by those Arab nations

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Speaker 3: to move products and services they can through pipelines and

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Speaker 3: over roads and avoid that geographic obstacle. Really is what

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Speaker 3: it's become. I think when this is when this is over,

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Speaker 3: the Saudi's are already have a pipeline built that goes

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Speaker 3: to the Red Sea.

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Speaker 2: It goes goes west.

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Speaker 3: I guess they get about seven million barrels a day

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Speaker 3: through there, but it's not the thirteen million that they

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Speaker 3: try to ship daily through the Persian Gulf. So you're

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Speaker 3: going to see the world everything has changed in the

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Speaker 3: Arab world because of this, and now that it's tipped

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Speaker 3: over where those Arab nations are against the Iranians. That

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Speaker 3: that means regime change from their mind is coming to.

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Speaker 1: It's changed the Arab world for us, for the United States.

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Speaker 1: But now we bring up this question of Israel. Can

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Speaker 1: is Israel going to abide by some deal that Trump says, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's the deal, right. The first rule of trump Ism

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Speaker 1: is that Trump wins, and the second rule of trump

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Speaker 1: Ism is that a deal can always be made as

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Speaker 1: long as it adheres to the first rule of trump Ism.

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Speaker 2: So Trump can.

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Speaker 1: Make a deal that net Yahoo or the Israelis don't like.

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Speaker 1: Are they prepared to say, well, this is as far

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Speaker 1: as we're going to go, Because if you ask the Israelis,

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Speaker 1: they want an Iranian regime that in no way exists

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Speaker 1: and they want no more uh Islamic power in that

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Speaker 1: in that area, in that country. Are they Are they

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Speaker 1: on board for the well, this is as far as

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go and that's gonna be that. Or will

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Speaker 1: they're bombing of Park Servaran or a southern Lebanon and

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Speaker 1: Hesbela continue.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're going to continue going after hez Blood. That's

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Speaker 3: the only proxy that the Iranians are even remotely attached

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Speaker 3: to it this point. But you saw the Lebanese government

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Speaker 3: now I believe it is trying to remove the Iranian ministries.

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Speaker 2: Lebanon.

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Speaker 3: What again a disaster of a country taken over by

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Speaker 3: Hesbalah and you know, neighbor of Israel, clearly an enemy

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Speaker 3: of the Israeli States. So again, Israel's taking care of

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Speaker 3: all family business right now, going after them. But Tony,

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Speaker 3: what would that deal look like? What would the United

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Speaker 3: States is not going to agree to anything that. I

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Speaker 3: don't think Israel wouldn't think is as good as well.

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Speaker 3: It didn't obviously Israel didn't like the JCPOA, but Obama

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Speaker 3: didn't care what Israel thought, and that was that's turned

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Speaker 3: out to be a complete disaster if that if that

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Speaker 3: had gone through and the Trump administration didn't pull that

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Speaker 3: off the table, because we see the Iranians are just

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Speaker 3: liars anyway.

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Speaker 2: But what would that look like?

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Speaker 3: I think Israel will be very satisfied because the United

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Speaker 3: States will be satisfied because you mentioned Trump's rule number one,

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Speaker 3: Trump wins, but also in Trump's world, in so many ways,

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Speaker 3: somebody else loses, and that's that's going to be part

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Speaker 3: of the visual of the United States winning.

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Speaker 2: Is going to be somebody else lose.

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Speaker 3: Trump would love another you know, US battleship Missouri moment

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Speaker 3: where we bring the Iranian, you know, whoever a person

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Speaker 3: is signs the surrender statement on the USS Eisenhower or

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Speaker 3: someplace and with ten with a thousand sailors overlooking that person,

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Speaker 3: a very small person, like we did against the Japanese.

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Speaker 3: So it's not only Trump wins, but someone's going to lose.

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Speaker 3: And in this case that's.

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Speaker 2: Going to be a run.

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Speaker 3: I don't see how it is reel, given that what

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Speaker 3: with the United States has demanded for right now, we're

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Speaker 3: not going to give up in any of those things,

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Speaker 3: which means really unconditional surrender.

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Speaker 1: Trump wants to be on the boat when Emperor hero

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Speaker 1: Hido shows up to say we give Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 3: I think that would be the moment they'll they'll find

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Speaker 3: this to find the shortest Iranian that they can to

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Speaker 3: do it to make it look even worse.

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Speaker 1: So there is something to be said about a visual sir.

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Speaker 1: It's it is pretty important stuff. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: that moment's coming. Major Mike Lyons, United States Army, a

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Speaker 1: major retired a military analyst. I appreciate you taking the

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Speaker 1: time to be with us. More is coming up on

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Speaker 1: Tony Katz. This is Tony Katz today