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Speaker 1: So the jobs numbers came out and the market went nuts.

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Speaker 1: There was a moment where the market was over six hundred.

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Speaker 1: I do not know where it's going to end today.

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Speaker 1: It could end over one thousand, it could end down. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I have no crystal ball. What I know is these

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Speaker 1: jobs numbers are from September. And you're like, Tony, it's November.

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Speaker 1: Well there was a shutdown, which makes one wonder do

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Speaker 1: these job numbers mean anything at all?

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Speaker 2: And is that what's moving the market? Tony Katz, Tony

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Speaker 2: Katz today, good to be with you.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Mattwill joins me right now, economist at the University

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Speaker 1: of Indianapolis. I sent this to you. Actually, I didn't

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Speaker 1: even get a chance to send this to you. You

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Speaker 1: immediately are sending me a text and you're like, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: this ain't this ain't nothing, Tony, this is not even

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Speaker 1: a thing.

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Speaker 2: You've seen the job's numbers, right, you.

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Speaker 1: Took a look at what it is that happened, adding

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Speaker 1: one hundred and nineteen thousand jobs in September. That's well

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Speaker 1: over the estimate. But your argument is, Tony, it does

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Speaker 1: doesn't mean anything. Talk to me about the job's numbers

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Speaker 1: and what you're seeing.

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Speaker 3: Well, the reason it's meaningless is because there's lots of

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Speaker 3: weeks missing. The government shutdown occurred, so we have all

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Speaker 3: this data that's not even reported, so there may have

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Speaker 3: been negative weeks in there that we don't even know

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Speaker 3: about that could have pulled that one hundred and nineteen

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Speaker 3: thousand down. So it's unreliable. Plus it's old, it's September,

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Speaker 3: the market has moved on, We've got other sources of information,

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Speaker 3: so the market really doesn't care about this. And because

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Speaker 3: of the government shutdown, what's interesting is we're not going

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Speaker 3: to have a report for the October data. There's not

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Speaker 3: even going to be another report until December on the

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Speaker 3: November data, and then that report will come out after

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Speaker 3: the FED meeting. So it's a very convoluted thing. But

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Speaker 3: even inside the report, there's some good news and there's

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Speaker 3: some bad news. Unreliable on both sides, but it's a

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Speaker 3: mixture of news in this report. So let's let's throw

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Speaker 3: it away.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about at least what's in it.

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Speaker 1: One hundred nineteen thousand jobs added instead of the fifth

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Speaker 1: that was expected, unemployment rate ticks up to four point

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Speaker 1: four percent. You still toss both those numbers and say

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Speaker 1: there's a good, there's a bad. It's like af setting

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Speaker 1: finalties in the NFL. Just let's let's rehike the balls,

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Speaker 1: repeat second down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's exactly what the case is. Because while

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Speaker 3: the non farm payrolls are up, and the September hourly

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Speaker 3: wages are up year over year, and the revisions from

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Speaker 3: August were improving, and the participation rates up, so there's

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Speaker 3: all these good things, but then the September monthly wages

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Speaker 3: are down, the unemployment rate is up, the continuing jobless

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Speaker 3: claims are at the highest level since twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 3: So even even if we say, hey, it's reliable data,

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Speaker 3: it's it's it's a do over. It's a total draw

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Speaker 3: on the good and the bad. So but I gotta

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Speaker 3: tell you, Tony, I'm actually glad the government shut down

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Speaker 3: from the perspective of government reports because we focus you

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Speaker 3: and I even we're guilty of this. We focus so

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Speaker 3: much on the government day when we should be looking

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Speaker 3: at Wall Street and how our business is doing and

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Speaker 3: are they profitable and are they growing and are they

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Speaker 3: laying people off? That is much more important, and that's

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Speaker 3: where we should pay our attention rather than at every

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Speaker 3: government report that comes out, Well.

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Speaker 2: Then let us do that.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis earlier this week, markets went down. I mean they

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Speaker 1: went down in this market considerably, if you will, not

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Speaker 1: multi thousand points, not oh my gosh, it's the end

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Speaker 1: of days. But they went down, and part of it

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Speaker 1: is because there was a real question of is this

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Speaker 1: AI bubble really a bubble? Are we all just buying

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Speaker 1: into a bunch of nonsense here. If it wasn't for

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Speaker 1: AI investing, there'd be no investing at all, as you've

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Speaker 1: discussed on this show many many times. Then in video

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Speaker 1: which makes the chips came out and said, you know

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Speaker 1: what we're doing. Fine, we're investing here, We're doing this.

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Speaker 1: Trust me, your money's in a good spot. And the

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Speaker 1: market has jumped back up. So did the market see

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Speaker 1: the jobs and say finally we have a job report,

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Speaker 1: or did the market see nvidians say finally we have

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Speaker 1: someone telling us it's all gonna be okay, stroking our

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Speaker 1: hair as we've had a night of heavy drinking, saying

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Speaker 1: don't worry, you'll feel better in the morning.

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Speaker 3: Well, okay, I'm not gonna you can stick with your analogy.

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Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say a pretty good one, but I'm

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Speaker 3: not gonna deny that. But it's back to what I said.

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Speaker 3: The market is looking to businesses now. Thank goodness, they're

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Speaker 3: doing that. And Nvidia said, look, people, everything is fine.

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Speaker 3: These AI profits are real. Walmart came out. Walmart even

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Speaker 3: said earnings solid. So we have solid earnings from one

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Speaker 3: of the biggest retailers in the world. We have solid

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Speaker 3: earnings reports from the biggest AI company in the world.

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Speaker 3: Everything is looking good. Well, okay, not everything's looking good.

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Speaker 3: Verizon laid off thirteen thousand people. So there's the AI rub,

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Speaker 3: the rub, especially in companies that are heavily can use

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Speaker 3: technology like Verizon can use technology. Then we're going to

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Speaker 3: see those layoffs continue, which we saw in this corrupted

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Speaker 3: unemployment report.

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Speaker 1: And this is not the only layoffs we've seen, right,

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Speaker 1: the layoffs from ups, the layoffs from Amazon, and they've

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Speaker 1: been more on a corporate side. Talking to doctor Matt Will,

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Speaker 1: economist at the University of Indianapolis, this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: I mean, we can play this politically for a moment, sir,

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Speaker 1: this is going to be Oh my gosh, look at

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Speaker 1: Trump's economy.

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Speaker 2: Look how charabud is. Look at all the jobs that

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Speaker 2: are being laid off.

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Speaker 4: This is exactly what one would expect, if they're rational

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Speaker 4: from the multi trillion dollar investment that has gone into AI,

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Speaker 4: that people are going to now utilize these tools as

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Speaker 4: a way of seeing if they can replace workforce.

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Speaker 1: There's really this huge experiment going on right now in

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Speaker 1: the American economy. I don't think it's going to pay

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Speaker 1: off the way others do, but that is what we're seeing.

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Speaker 1: The layoffs are not a result of the Trump economy

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Speaker 1: as they are of the Trump investment.

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Speaker 2: True or false, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: The answer to that question, but I'm gonna take exception

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Speaker 3: with what you said. This great experiment. This isn't an experiment, Tony.

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Speaker 3: We've done it before. We did it when we replaced

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Speaker 3: the horse and buggy with the car. We did it

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Speaker 3: when we replaced the typewriter with the computer. This is

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Speaker 3: not an experiment. This is transitional unemployment. And you and

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Speaker 3: I you know we're gonna have to have a fight

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Speaker 3: on this one because I think AI is legit. I

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Speaker 3: think it's here to stay, and it's going to produce

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Speaker 3: all the great things, but it does cause what we

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Speaker 3: call transitional unemployment. There is going to be a moment

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Speaker 3: when the people taking care of the horses, shoes, and

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Speaker 3: the buggies are out of jobs until we build up

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Speaker 3: that other industry, which was cars. This is the same thing.

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Speaker 3: I can really sincerely believe that.

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Speaker 1: So let's first say that we agree on that basic point.

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Speaker 1: That's not actually a moment of disagreement, calling you a

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Speaker 1: transitional what do you call it?

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Speaker 2: Transitional employment?

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Speaker 3: Yes, transitional unemployments?

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Speaker 2: Is that actually? Is that a term? Is that a

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Speaker 2: term of arts for economists? Yep?

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Speaker 1: So I agree with you there, and I think that

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Speaker 1: people are politically going to say, look what Trump's done

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Speaker 1: to the economy, look at all these jobs, and not

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Speaker 1: notice that a lot of this has to do with

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Speaker 1: the investment in AI, and then it's it's it's utilization.

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Speaker 1: What I'm saying is is that absolutely it's an experiment

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Speaker 1: to find out whether or not AI can actually replace

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Speaker 1: these jobs, or whether or not people are going to

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Speaker 1: realize we need some of them back. There's also the

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Speaker 1: greater conversation of how much bloat did we have as

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Speaker 1: a company with all of these corporate folk or all

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Speaker 1: these other folk companies do this.

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Speaker 2: They take a look, they reorg they they engage some shedding,

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Speaker 2: et cetera.

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Speaker 1: But as we take a look at the Trump economy overall,

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Speaker 1: you heard President Trump with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 1: Mohammed Ben Solomon, saying that the a billion dollars worth

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Speaker 1: of investment. You saw Trump at the US Saudi Investment

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Speaker 1: Forum cheering this on, and the trillions that have come

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Speaker 1: into the US economy. I've made the argument that he

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Speaker 1: needs to turn that into a conversation about how it

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Speaker 1: helps people in the Midwest in order to get them

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Speaker 1: to understand how this big investment actually helps people when

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Speaker 1: they're seeing job losses, Verizon ups, Amazon, etc.

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Speaker 2: So, as you see the investments happening, the investment going.

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Speaker 1: On, and you see still higher costs and groceries and

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Speaker 1: other things in a bunch of places, is the Trump

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Speaker 1: economy working in your view?

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Speaker 3: Well, those are two different things. First of all, I've

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Speaker 3: seen the investments announced, but I haven't seen the investments

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Speaker 3: in the ground. I haven't seen the shovels in the ground.

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Speaker 3: And Trump is very good at talking, and I think

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Speaker 3: he's announced a lot of investments in a trillion dollars

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Speaker 3: is of course a big deal, but I haven't seen

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Speaker 3: it physically occur yet, and I think he needs to

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Speaker 3: get somebody in his administration to roll up their sleeves

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Speaker 3: and get the shovels in the ground. So that's the

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Speaker 3: first part. And so I think he's doing a good

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Speaker 3: job if he can deliver on the promises. And the

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Speaker 3: promises are legit, but have they actually resulted in jobs.

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Speaker 3: As far as the inflation goes, I think that there's

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Speaker 3: still a big problem, and that is the inflation is

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Speaker 3: caused by government spending, and the government spending is still happening.

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Speaker 3: The Republicans are spending, just not quite as exuberantly as

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Speaker 3: the Democrats, and so the inflation is not going away.

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Speaker 3: But one of the ways he can address it is

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Speaker 3: by economic growth. And he's hurting himself. I'm gonna say

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Speaker 3: it again with the tariffs. If it weren't for the tariffs,

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Speaker 3: he could grow himself out of this inflation. He's his

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Speaker 3: own worst enemy.

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Speaker 1: Talking to doctor Matt Will economists at the University of Indianapolis, Yes,

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Speaker 1: you actually have to see the dollars flow in.

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Speaker 2: That has to happen.

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Speaker 4: You have.

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Speaker 2: However, the administration starting to.

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Speaker 1: In my view, finally talk about how listen, we know

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Speaker 1: that things aren't happening right away, but they will and

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Speaker 1: here's what we're setting up for the future, which I

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Speaker 1: think is a smart way to be talking about this

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Speaker 1: and something that should have happened months ago. In my view,

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Speaker 1: does the promise of the investment move Wall Street? Or

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Speaker 1: will we see real excitement, real changes when the dollars

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Speaker 1: actually mean shovels in the ground.

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Speaker 3: It's like the boy that cries wolf. Wall Street sees

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Speaker 3: the announcements, they're happy, they react positively, but guess what

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Speaker 3: they keep seeing announcements. They don't see shovels yet. And

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Speaker 3: I think that's what Wall Street is now skeptical. They

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Speaker 3: now see this administration as crying wolf because they keep

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Speaker 3: announcing big numbers, and they're bigger and bigger at trillion dollars,

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Speaker 3: but they don't see the shovels in the ground. I

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Speaker 3: think we got to go back to the Ronald Reagan

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Speaker 3: playbook of the eighties. Ronald Reagan did not go around

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Speaker 3: bragging about how great the economy was when he took

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Speaker 3: it over from Jimmy Carter. He just rolled up his sleeves,

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Speaker 3: did the things. We paid the price, you know, with

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Speaker 3: higher interest rates to kill inflation, and then when the

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Speaker 3: elections came around, he swept through him again because he

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Speaker 3: had evidence. I think Trump needs to focus less on

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Speaker 3: the pr and I know this is where you know,

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Speaker 3: I hear you saying that he's got a message better.

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Speaker 3: I think he needs results better. I always like to

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Speaker 3: have this saying that I can't hear what you're saying

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Speaker 3: because your actions are so loud.

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Speaker 2: Oh don't go now.

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Speaker 1: Let's not disagree with each other here on a point

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Speaker 1: that is very very well made by you talking to

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Speaker 1: doctor Matt Will, economist at the University of Indianapolis. Results matter.

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Speaker 1: Results are the only things that matter. For sure, I

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Speaker 1: wholeheartedly agree. But while you're waiting for the results, you

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Speaker 1: got to explain what it is that you're doing and

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Speaker 1: why it is that matters, and all these conversations of

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Speaker 1: huge investments. Here's how it's going to affect you in

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Speaker 1: the Midwest, in the South, you can't worry about the

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Speaker 1: coastal people on that subject at all, though you can

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Speaker 1: also talk to them.

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Speaker 2: We're also hearing that because.

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Speaker 1: Of you know, as we started with the jobs numbers

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Speaker 1: one hundred nineteen thousand jobs in September that coming out

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Speaker 1: today unemployment to four point four percent. That maybe the

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Speaker 1: FED doesn't feel as great about lowering interest rates as

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Speaker 1: they have, promising a full point cut over this year,

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Speaker 1: and maybe the leap things where they are.

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Speaker 2: I don't believe inflation is down enough to cut rates.

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Speaker 2: I don't think inflation has been tamed. That I have

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Speaker 2: stayed with that now for well years now. I'm now

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Speaker 2: years on that subject. Doctor. Well, where are you you

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Speaker 2: think the FED should cut?

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Speaker 1: Or maybe better said, do you think the Fed will cut?

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Speaker 3: Well? First of all, will they cut? I think not.

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Speaker 3: I don't think there's strong enough evidence in their formula

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Speaker 3: to cut the rates. But I go back to what

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Speaker 3: I've said before. You know, Kevin Walsh, I agree with him.

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Speaker 3: I think that the whole solution here is to cut

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Speaker 3: rates and shed the balance sheet, and the FED is

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Speaker 3: doing the opposite. They've frozen their balance sheet. They're not

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Speaker 3: getting rid of the assets they know, so they're causing inflation.

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Speaker 3: Whether they cut rates or not is more a signal.

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Speaker 3: The most important thing is their open market operations, and

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Speaker 3: they have frozen those. So I think what the FED

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Speaker 3: is doing is wrong. Whether they cut rates or not

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Speaker 3: is meaningless. They are causing inflation. Inflation is here and

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Speaker 3: Trump needs to grow the economy to fight Jerome Pal's

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Speaker 3: bad decisions.

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Speaker 1: Doctor Mattwell, economist at the University of Indianapolis, I appreciate

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Speaker 1: you taking the time to be with us, more to

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Speaker 1: get to I'm Tony Katz.

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Speaker 2: This is Tony Katz today.