1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,080 Speaker 1: Wow, and the data is actually coming across the wires 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: on time good job bls change in non farm payrolls 3 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: for the August Job Job Jobs Report twenty two thousand, 4 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 1: twenty two thousand. Interest rates started dropping long before this 5 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: data was released. And last month, while a subtle revision 6 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 1: is seventy nine thousand, and if you look at the 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: two month revision, thank goodness, it's not minus two hundred 8 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: and fifty eight thousand like it was last month, comes 9 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 1: out to minus. 10 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 2: Twenty one thousand. 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 3: Now everything gets revised, and we have seen nothing but 12 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 3: revisions in the days of the Biden White House. But 13 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 3: they started with a high number and revised low twenty 14 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 3: two thousand jobs versus a seventy five thousand estimate. And 15 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 3: you've got Kevin Hassett of the White House Economic Council saying, oh, no, no, no, no, 16 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 3: next month it'll get revised up. It will why twenty 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 3: two thousand jobs. And then the market responded by saying, hey, 18 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 3: maybe this means we'll get interest cuts, and then they 19 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 3: realized maybe we won't get interest cuts. It's a it's 20 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: a thing. Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, good to be 21 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 3: with you, doctor, Matt Will joins us right now, economists 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 3: at the University of Indianapolis. Let's talk about these jobs 23 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 3: numbers twenty two thousand versus seventy five thousand. Where did 24 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 3: the jobs come from? Where did they not materialize? 25 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 2: Well? I like how you started by saying that they're 26 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: going to be revised and probably down, because that's the 27 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: trend that June was revised down thirteen thousand. Private was 28 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 2: revised down from June by twenty seven thousand. But to 29 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 2: get to your question, Tony, I got to put a 30 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: positive spin on this because I know some of the 31 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 2: people on the chat always liked to play on Joom 32 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 2: and green dye, So let me put a positive attitude 33 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: on it. Okay, Hospitality went up twenty eight thousand, healthcare 34 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 2: went up forty six thousand, so there's a there are 35 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 2: some strong segments of this. Retail went up ten and 36 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: a half thousand, but the overall number twenty two is 37 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:12,399 Speaker 2: pretty bad. We saw manufacturing and this is of course 38 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 2: where we're gonna get the doom and gloom. Manufacturing down 39 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 2: twelve thousand, Overall goods production down twenty five thousand. This 40 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: is not good. This is terrible, but again good News 41 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: government down sixteen thousand. So we see the bad parts 42 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 2: are the parts being impacted by tariffs. And I'll say this, 43 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:35,559 Speaker 2: I've said it before, tariff. I mean, Trump is amazing. 44 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 2: His economy's fantastic. If he can just get it out 45 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 2: of his own way, it would be one of the 46 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 2: best economies we've ever seen. 47 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 3: So we're discussing jobs numbers and you started discussing tariffs. 48 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 3: You're saying now that there's a correlation. Where do you 49 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: see it. 50 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 2: Oh, it's one hundred percent. There's no disputing that the 51 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: correlation is between tariffs and what we see because the 52 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: parts of the economy that are shrinking is the manufing base, 53 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 2: the goods production base. Those are the things that are shrinking. 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: And that's why this number is so low and why 55 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 2: the JEW number was revised down. But it's not just 56 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 2: an opinion. We can look at other data. The ISMPMI report, 57 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 2: that's the one that measures manufacturing in the United States. 58 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 2: It just came out four days ago and it showed 59 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:27,640 Speaker 2: us the sixth consecutive month of contracting manufacturing in the 60 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: United States. That's what tariffs do. They shrink manufacturing because 61 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 2: we're spending more money on imports, which means we have 62 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: less money to spend. That's just math. If you have 63 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 2: less money to spend, you're going to buy less of 64 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: stuff you produce at home. It's not the right formula. 65 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: Talking to doctor Matt Will, economists at the University of Indianapolis, 66 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: this manufacturing number and tariffs to the manufacturing number of 67 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 3: tariffs to the jobs numbers, I want to go back 68 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 3: first to what we were just talking about with jobs, 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 3: saying that the tariffs are hired, so people are not hiring. 70 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 3: And that's why you saw an increase in the hospitality 71 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 3: because that really doesn't get affected by tariffs, and you 72 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 3: saw a decrease everywhere else. And I'll take any decrease 73 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 3: in government job numbers i can get. I do consider 74 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 3: that to be excellent, excellent news, better for everybody. I'm 75 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 3: happy to see it. I want to see more of it. 76 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 3: But the growth in hospitality and not the other places. 77 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 3: Is this just you or is this something that economists 78 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 3: theorize about and share about, discuss that, hey, this is 79 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 3: actually very worrisome. No, No, I don't think it's worrisome. 80 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 3: I think hospitality growth is a good thing. And I'll 81 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 3: tell you you know you say a phrase in your show, 82 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 3: I like you that you say a lot is it's 83 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 3: possible for both things to be possible at the same time. 84 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 3: It is possible to have good parts of the economy 85 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 3: and bad parts. 86 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: Bad parts. I think the positive retail number, I think 87 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: the positive hospitality number. I think the positive healthcare growth number. 88 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: These are all good things. The total growth in private 89 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: industry plus thirty eight thousand. All of these are good 90 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 2: because Trump has incredibly good policies. He's taking government regulation out. 91 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 2: You can get an approval for a merger much quicker 92 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 2: than you could before. You could get regulation out of 93 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 2: the way, so you can produce a product that you 94 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: couldn't produce before. These are all growing the economy, and 95 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 2: we see the growth. The area we see no growth, 96 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 2: we see contraction is in the areas that are directly 97 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 2: impacted by terraffs. Wages, in hospitality, healthcare, retail. Those aren't 98 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 2: impacted directly by the terriffs and wages. I didn't even 99 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 2: mention the other good news. Wages were up point three percent, 100 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 2: that's three point six annualized. There is good wage news 101 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 2: in this report. We haven't seen that in a long time, 102 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: so just to be clear. 103 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 3: Talking to doctor Matt Will Economists, University of Indianapolis. The 104 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 3: argument was that real wages were up point seven percent 105 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 3: and annualize that puts us at almost five percent for 106 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 3: the year. You just gave a love number. I just 107 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 3: want to make sure there's a not a why there's 108 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 3: a discrepancy between those two. 109 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 2: Oh, there's different reports. Just the report we saw of 110 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 2: the point seven you're referring to was earlier in the 111 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 2: week or last week, I forget what it was, and 112 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,719 Speaker 2: this was today's report. Okay, they're just different reports, but 113 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 2: they're both in the same direction, which is positive news 114 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: about wages. So wages good. Again, Trump is his worst 115 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: enemy and he's his best friend, and I just wish 116 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 2: his worst enemy would lose more so. 117 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 3: The worst enemy you feel is of course tariffs. And 118 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 3: this brings us to this manufacturing number, which, again, if 119 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 3: you want to talk about the thing that you have 120 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 3: discussed on this show more than anything as a guys, 121 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 3: this is where you need to be paying attention. Doctor Mattwell, 122 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 3: it's been this manufacturing report, these manufacturing numbers, what it 123 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 3: is we're seeing down again for the sixth month in 124 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 3: a row, so down manufacturing means down hiring and down sales. 125 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 3: Yet we see real wages up, we see retail spending up, 126 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 3: and a GDP that's revised up to three point three percent. 127 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: You will forgive me. 128 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 3: If I say that sounds schizophrenic and nutty and I 129 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 3: can't follow it. 130 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 2: It is. It is because again the good Trump is 131 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 2: causing a growth in the economy. We see it in 132 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 2: the revised GDP data. But the segment of the economy 133 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 2: that is shrinking is manufacturing. The thing that he claims 134 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: should grow as a result of tariffs is not. And 135 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 2: everybody knows this. Every economist knows this. It's called comparative advantage. 136 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 2: We've seen it throughout history. That the tariffs are causing 137 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 2: a shrinking in manufacturing and that will continue until we 138 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 2: get off this bandwagon. I think his statement Lettinix said 139 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 2: it today, and I think that Trump said it. You 140 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 2: have to look to next year. I do believe the 141 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: pain from the tariffs will subside. We'll get to a 142 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 2: new norm. We will live with the suffering of it. 143 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 2: It's not going to be perpetual. So I do believe, 144 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: like with anything you increase taxes, tariffs are taxes. You're 145 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: going to absorb those taxes, a budget for them, and 146 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: then I think at some point you will see growth. 147 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 3: Now and again, I'm just now I'm start going to 148 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 3: start slapping you around. You can't budget for them. If 149 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 3: they change, the tariffs on India change the tariffs on 150 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 3: China could change in any second. I don't disagree. If 151 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 3: you had a standard play ten percent tariff. 152 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 2: The market could figure out what to do. 153 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 3: But we don't have that yet and that doesn't seem 154 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 3: to be coming. 155 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, you're right, and this is what I'm saying. 156 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,719 Speaker 2: The market will absorb it. The market will figure it 157 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 2: out if it becomes stable. But it's just not stable yet. 158 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 2: I think the market could deal with it and manage 159 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 2: it if it sees it. Let me give you some 160 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 2: good news in the report that I love to talk about. 161 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 2: New orders were up quite substantially this month. Supply your 162 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 2: deliveries were up, so we see the good Trump policy input. 163 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 2: All those things are good. But inflation is still there. 164 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: Stomer inventories are still down. And this is the worst 165 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,520 Speaker 2: part is for the seventh month in a row, manufacturing 166 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 2: employment has declined. Yeah, so again he's got to get 167 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 2: out of his own way to have the greatest economy 168 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 2: that we may have seen in a long time. 169 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 3: Talking to doctor Matt Well, economists at the University of 170 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 3: Indianapolis on the tariff's subject, I do think that sooner 171 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 3: rather than later, companies are going to start passing parts 172 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 3: of not all of that tariff cost on. 173 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 2: They can't absorb forever. 174 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 3: But now let's get into where the market is. And 175 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 3: you may be in the market in a retirement funder 176 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 3: all sorts of things. I'm just utilizing it right now 177 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:42,960 Speaker 3: as a kind of a benchmark conversation piece. And that 178 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 3: the market, the pre market was down. Then after the 179 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 3: announcement of the jobs numbers twenty two thousand on seventy 180 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 3: five thousand dollars estimate, seventy five thousand jobs estimate, the 181 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 3: market went up and then it has been down down 182 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 3: over three hundred and this is because people thought, oh, 183 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 3: maybe the bad jobs will mean we'll have rate cuts, 184 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 3: and then they said, well, maybe they won't do rate cuts. 185 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 3: What's with the schizophrenia over these This job's report in 186 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 3: the matter of just hours. 187 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 2: This is vital for everyone to understand. Markets fluctuate. These 188 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: are people with perceptions and their perceptions change minute to minute. 189 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 2: I was listening to your show earlier and you talked 190 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 2: about mortgage rates being down. That was a shock. People 191 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 2: were happy, Oh, mortgage rates are down. When rates go down, 192 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 2: the market goes up. And then but wait then some 193 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 2: reports came out as to why are the rates down. Oh, oh, 194 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 2: because of recession fears and there's a flight to quality, 195 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 2: So people are going to bonds to buy bonds as 196 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 2: a safe haven. That pulls up the price of bonds. 197 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,839 Speaker 2: It pulls yields down. So yields are down down because 198 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 2: of recession fears. So then the market drops again. Tony, 199 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 2: it's minute to minute throughout the day. The market reacts 200 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: to every that it hears. 201 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 3: By the way, when he says heard me earlier, he 202 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 3: was talking about the morning show. Listen to the morning 203 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 3: show as I was discussing this, doctor Matt Will, economist 204 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 3: at the University of Indianapolis. I appreciate you taking the 205 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:14,800 Speaker 3: time to be with us more to get to I'm 206 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 3: Tony Katz, and this is Tony Katz today.