1 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:10,800 Speaker 1: Line from ball Hartbiner and the Crossroads of America. It's 2 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: Tony Katz today, fifteen days to flatten the curve. 3 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: I remember that as you do. 4 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: We were told fifteen days, everyone just stays home. You 5 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: won't have this massive amount of COVID cases in hospitals. 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: We'll be able to manage everything. And well that didn't 7 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,800 Speaker 1: work out so well, and I did it, Tony Katz, 8 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: Tony kats today, Good to be here, Good to be 9 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: with you. Now it's President Trump telling Iran fifteen days 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: to come to a deal. 11 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 2: Or you're going to regret it. Now. 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: I'm not in favor of what it is that we're 13 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: seeing regarding the Iranian regime. I'm not in favor of 14 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: keeping the Eyeah toolin in power. If you ask me 15 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: if I favor regime change, if we're going to call 16 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: it that, the answer is yeah, I really and truly do. 17 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: But when we talk about while the President is going 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: to engage in attack on the regime, what does it 19 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: mean we're gonna hit military targets, what do I do 20 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: with that information? Because that doesn't help the people. I'm 21 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 1: focused on the people, not dealmaking and regarding nuclear capabilities 22 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: that I thought we destroyed, and certainly we did a 23 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: lot of damage to Noah Roffman joins me right now 24 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 1: from National Review. His third book, Blood and Progress, A 25 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,320 Speaker 1: Century of Left Wing Violence, will be out in May 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six. Be looking for pre orders at 27 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 1: Amazon dot com. His piece over at National Review, The 28 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: clock ticks in Iran. Is it your take that the 29 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: clockticks because the iatola knows that his days are numbered? 30 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,559 Speaker 1: Or is just the clock ticking because at any moment, 31 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: Iran can be involved in some type of military action 32 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: with Israel or the United States. 33 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 3: Or both, and it's increasingly looking like both. Yeah, I'm 34 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 3: leaning much towards the latter of your description. There. Nobody 35 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 3: knows precisely what the president is thinking, and I think 36 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: there's an element of ambiguity there that he himself is cultivating. 37 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: He's beginning to talk about the Wall Street Journal reported, 38 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 3: and he said as much to reporters yesterday and today 39 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 3: that maybe we do a limited strike, Maybe we only 40 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: hit a couple of things, some military targets, and then 41 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 3: you guys come back to the negotiating table and you 42 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 3: strike a deal with us, or there's going to be 43 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:35,640 Speaker 3: another round of strikes. That's going to be bigger and 44 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: it will grow successfully until you guys come to the table. 45 00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 3: I don't believe that for a second. This is a 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,959 Speaker 3: user or lose its scenario for the Iranian regime, and 47 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 3: they understand as much. And indeed, the United States has 48 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 3: enough firepower in this region that it would make very 49 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,119 Speaker 3: little sense for it to tailor it's targeting to such 50 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: an extent that it leads itself vulnerable to retaliatory responses 51 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 3: the IRGC, the Iranian regime, its army, or the dozens 52 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 3: of proxy groups that are still active in the region. 53 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 3: And we'll engage with the US in Israel on m's 54 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: behalf once hostilities start. I don't anticipate that's what we're 55 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 3: going to see, but I think we're going to see, 56 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,240 Speaker 3: and what we're beginning to get some glimpses of in 57 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 3: the Israeli press in particular, but some in the American 58 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 3: press and the Wall Street Journal in particular, is some 59 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 3: biblical stuff we executed. We have a few weeks ago 60 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: an attack on Venezuela that was phenomenal in its technical 61 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 3: tactical capacity. It was an interoperable, integrated combined arms operation 62 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 3: using every element of American firepower, as well as special 63 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 3: forces on the ground, in which we used experimental weapons 64 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 3: that apparently turned the Cuban security forces around Nicholas Buerrero 65 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,119 Speaker 3: into jelly. They came home in shoe boxes. We haven't 66 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: seen anything like what we're about to see in Iran. 67 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 3: The scope, the scale, the speed, and the aggression with 68 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: which the US can apply power to. First, Iranian military targets. 69 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 3: It's missile launchers, it's whatever remains of its layered air 70 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 3: defense system from the Twelve Day War, as well as 71 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 3: any other ability for its proxies read in the region 72 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 3: and around Iran and inside Iran to project power. That's first, 73 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 3: and that's going away in hours. And in the subsequent 74 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 3: hours there will be attacks on ier GC targets and 75 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 3: regime targets designed to minimize the casualties of the experienced 76 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 3: by the Iranian people, the civilian population. The whole point 77 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 3: of this exercise is to re energize the protest movement 78 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: and filment something that looks like a ground force, because 79 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 3: you can't dissolve a regime from the air without a 80 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 3: ground force. 81 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 2: And that's why the protesters join us. 82 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 3: But that is the goal. I think the goal is 83 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 3: to collapse the regime. 84 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 2: So that's where it gets for me rather confusing. 85 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: That is what I want, and I'm going to be 86 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: called a warmonger for it, and I honestly don't care 87 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: about that. One of the things I think interesting about 88 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: Trump foreign policy is that while he would never call 89 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: himself a Neocon, I think he's given himself a little 90 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: bit of an eye to the idea that maybe dealing 91 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: with these things before they become bigger things is the 92 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 1: right way to go about things. I don't know if 93 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: we would call that a Neocon policy or any other 94 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: kind of policy, but I have been questioning, how in 95 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: the world, if I bomb this site, if I bomb 96 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: that site, how does that help the people? He said 97 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: help is on its way. You can't say help is 98 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 1: on its way and then not provide help. You have 99 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: to break the IRGC, and the only way I think 100 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 1: to do that is to end the money supply and 101 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: the power supply that goes to these people. So what 102 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 1: you're arguing is is that what we saw in Venezuela 103 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: is only a taste of the kind of activity you 104 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 1: could see in Iran, and that means that you're going 105 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: to see US troops actually making maneuvers. 106 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: We don't have a force posture in the region that's 107 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 3: conducive to a ground element, don't. They're not there. Well, 108 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 3: we do have are probably special Forces operations that it 109 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: would not be surprised if they'd taken a role on 110 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 3: the ground in some very limited capacity, and much the 111 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 3: same way that we saw in Venezuela. There was a 112 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 3: ground component to that as well. I wouldn't rule that out. 113 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 3: But what you have to do, and when you're engaged 114 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 3: in a campaign like this, is start with the military targets, 115 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 3: because you're trying to protect your forces. We want to 116 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 3: make sure that as much as Iran is capable of 117 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 3: retaliating against US and Israeli and allied forces in the 118 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: region at the US basis, Israeli basis, our joint partnership bases, 119 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 3: as well as our naval assets. You want to neutralize 120 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 3: all that stuff right away. That's the first that's job 121 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 3: number one. Then you start peeling away the regime targets, 122 00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:47,840 Speaker 3: the IRGC command structure, as well as its capacity to 123 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: communicate with its troops on the ground, and then after 124 00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 3: that you start attacking symbolic targets symbols of political authority, 125 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 3: the region's political authority, and inside Iran. And you know, 126 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 3: we've been talking about who knows how long this campaign lasts. 127 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: What it looks like, we've been talking about weeks and 128 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 3: weeks and weeks. But if you start looking at reading 129 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 3: some of the informed speculation from people who know exactly 130 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 3: what they're talking about, like those who are talking who 131 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: are not inside the loop here, but are nevertheless informed 132 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 3: on it, like for example, Vice Admiral Bob Howard, the 133 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 3: former Deputy commander of the US Central Command SYNCOM in 134 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 3: the Middle East, speaking of the Jerusalem Post, it speculates 135 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 3: that a lot of the really heavy kinetic operations will 136 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 3: take place within hours, not days, not weeks, hours that 137 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 3: we have the capacity and we have the firepower in 138 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 3: this region to execute something that the world has never 139 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 3: seen before. And make no mistake, the world is watching. 140 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 3: The audience for this is not justin Tehran, it is 141 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 3: in Beijing, it is in Moscow. And what the performance 142 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 3: that is about to be put on is for their benefit, 143 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 3: and it is designed to deter as much as anything else, 144 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 3: a much broader conflict in West in the Western Pacific, 145 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 3: or in Europe and I think we're going to see 146 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 3: something that's going to be pretty impressive. You know, you 147 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 3: had regime Chinese regime officials speaking to their house organs, 148 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: the propagandist outlets that they populate the West with, and 149 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 3: even they could not like really hide how impressed they 150 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: were with that. You know, it was a violation of 151 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 3: international law, it was reckless and imperialist. Yeah, yeah, yeah. 152 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 3: But at the same time, you had Beijing, Beijing Link 153 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 3: officials and military strategists speaking with for example, the Daily, 154 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 3: the Chinese People's Daily, saying like, well, you got to 155 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: hand it to them. I mean, it was really actually 156 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 3: pretty impressive as a matter of tactical and strategic military prowess. 157 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 3: And I think that really did it really did hit 158 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 3: home in Beijing what they saw in Caracas, and I 159 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 3: think what they're about to see in Iran is going 160 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 3: to is going to be just as impressive and leave 161 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 3: just as lasting an impression of what usk the abilities 162 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 3: are for sustained power projection, for the speed at which 163 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 3: we can amass resources halfway across the planet Earth, for 164 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 3: the integrity of our alliances while we're doing this sort 165 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,599 Speaker 3: of thing. It's designed to be a deterrent and I 166 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 3: think it'll be effective. 167 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: Now, just really quickly, before we move on we talk 168 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: about not having certain forced postures in the region. You 169 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 1: can argue that the Israelis are in the region, and 170 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: the Israelis are absolutely capable of doing a whole bunch 171 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: of things. Is this a coordinated effort with the Israelis 172 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: or is it better for a on a pr level, 173 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: I'll call it to tell the Israelis or to say, hey, 174 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: we're not going to involve the Israelis in this until 175 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: they start getting hit with drones and missiles and whatever 176 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: it is Iran does in a flurry of fury. 177 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 3: Yeah. So we have to stress at this point in 178 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 3: time that the information environment is saturated with a lot 179 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 3: of stuff that may not be real. There's efforts to 180 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 3: mister redirect to get the Iranians to think something is 181 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 3: coming that is not coming, to get the Iranians to 182 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,839 Speaker 3: think that something is coming that may not be coming. 183 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,839 Speaker 3: So we have to be cautious about being caught in 184 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 3: the misinformation loop that is being actively cultivated right now 185 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 3: as part of any competent strategic operation. But there are 186 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 3: indications in Western media outlets that Israel will take an 187 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 3: active role jointly along with the United States in this operation, 188 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 3: which would be kind of unprecedented. There really was, There 189 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 3: was coordination during the Twelve Day War, and we took 190 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 3: over in the middle of that operation to execute the 191 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 3: Operation Midnight Hammer, but it wasn't a joint allied operation 192 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 3: like what we're seeing in news reports. I can't necessarily 193 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 3: say that that's definitely going to happen. I would be 194 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 3: kind of surprised if it did, but not completely surprised 195 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: because this is a joint project. For one very important reason, 196 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 3: Iran does not distinguish between the United States and Israel. 197 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 3: It doesn't distinguish it strategically, it doesn't distinguish it tactically. 198 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 3: When there are when when things this will start popping 199 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 3: off on either side of this equation, we get involved 200 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 3: very quickly. Irradians target us, we target them. Their proxies 201 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 3: target us, we target them. There is no distinction on 202 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 3: the ground when it comes to when the when the 203 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 3: shootings begins, So it's sort of a distinction without a 204 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 3: difference for me. It's the sort of thing that really 205 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 3: dominates the thinking in Western European capitals. And then you know, uh, 206 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 3: social media venues, but it really is. As far as 207 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 3: tactical strategic considerations go, it's just not really up there 208 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 3: for me. 209 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: Talking to Noah Roffman of National Review his new book 210 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,600 Speaker 1: Blood and Progress, A Century of Left Wing Violence. You'll 211 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: be able to get that in May of this very year. 212 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: Look for pre sales at Amazon dot Com or wherever 213 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: it is you like to get your books. Let me 214 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: move it over to Representative Acasio Cortez. This performance at 215 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: the Munich Security Conference, which I would say before anything else, 216 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: that Marco speech was an absolute joy to listen to, 217 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: and not only just I think a full throated defense 218 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: of the value of Western civilization. But I took this 219 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: speech not as I think some Europeans wanted to take it, 220 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: that we are not abandoning you, but rather if you 221 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: don't want to survive, well that's on you. 222 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 2: We simply won't be a part of it. The best 223 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 2: of luck to you. 224 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: The United States is moving in this direction, but with 225 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: Representative Acasio Cortes. 226 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 2: Most people are. 227 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: Pointing to her answer regarding what if China made a 228 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: move on Taiwan, and her hemming and hauing, and her 229 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: inability to even understand the question never mind formulate an 230 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: answer which was rather sophomoric as saying, we need to 231 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 1: do what we can to make sure that moment never comes. 232 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 2: As opposed to answering the question. 233 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: I would argue that there were a great number of 234 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: things that she discussed at the Munich Security Conference that 235 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,560 Speaker 1: showed that even with all her prep work, it was 236 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 1: a very sophomoric attempt at trying to be seen as 237 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,200 Speaker 1: somebody sirious about foreign policy. 238 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 2: Your piece AOC's breakout. 239 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 1: Performance, which you can find at National Review dot com, 240 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: do you see it as a sophomore performance or do 241 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: you see it as something else? 242 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 3: No, I absolutely agree with your assessment. And yeah, that 243 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 3: piece was written sort of a tongue in cheek praising 244 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 3: her for her what her staff build as really like 245 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 3: her debutants ball here, like she was going to come 246 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 3: out and demonstrate her foreign policy chops. They had prepped 247 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 3: the beaches for weeks in advance of her trip to Munich, Amberlyn, 248 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 3: you know, indicating to the press, hey, keep your eye 249 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 3: on Aoca. She's going to make some news. And she 250 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 3: sure did, and it wasn't the news that she wanted 251 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 3: to make. I watched as much as I possibly could 252 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 3: the hour and forty five minutes she spent at a 253 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 3: Berlin university speaking, you know, extemporaneously on foreign policy issues. 254 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 3: And it was excruciating because this lady just doesn't know 255 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 3: how to speak about far and policy. She understands how 256 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 3: to appeal to an audience of far left progressives in 257 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,559 Speaker 3: the United States on domestic issues. That is her box 258 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 3: of rhetorical tricks, and she pulled every single one out 259 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 3: over the course of this that engagement and in subsequent 260 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 3: engagements over in Germany over the course of that week, 261 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 3: and they were so wholly unimpressive. They were really reflective 262 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 3: of the milieu in which she is steeped, in which 263 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 3: the United States is the bad guy. Western Europe is 264 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 3: the bad guy. We were imperialists, where aggressive, we're prester 265 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 3: naturally racist, institutionally and structurally racist, and all of that 266 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 3: informs her worldview. So when she goes out and she 267 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 3: just doesn't know what, she doesn't know. So a lot 268 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 3: of the stuff that made news was her hemming and 269 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 3: hawing and not saying anything of substance at all, but 270 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 3: using a lot of polysyllabic jargon that is familiar to 271 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 3: the academy and sounds superficially authoritative, but then when you 272 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 3: actually type it out and read the transcript, you realize 273 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 3: nothing was said at all. No point was ever made 274 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 3: over the course of the entire paragraph in which she spoke. 275 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 3: But there were other moments where she said Marco Rubioz, 276 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 3: for example, appeal to Western culture was essentially chauvinist, that 277 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 3: he didn't really understand that cowboys are really I guess 278 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 3: the tantamount of slave patrols is sort of the implications 279 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 3: she made that Mexicans and descendants of African enslaved people 280 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 3: are word for it. 281 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: Because I listened to her and I still don't know 282 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: what she was talking about. 283 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 3: No, it's because she wasn't saying anything. She was saying 284 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 3: a lot of words that don't amount to a complete 285 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 3: and coherent thought. It's like she starts talking and then 286 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 3: hopes her brain will catch up to her with a 287 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 3: point that's comprehensive and becogent. But most of the time 288 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 3: she just keeps talking and doesn't actually get to anything 289 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 3: resembling a point. But you can assess if you dissect 290 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 3: and interrogate, to use her word and her highly academic language, 291 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 3: the points that she's attempting to make and you get 292 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 3: at the nut of it, which is that the United 293 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 3: States is fundamentally imperialist, even when it engages, even with 294 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 3: anti democratic actors, as they did with Nicholas Maduro, a 295 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 3: very generous concession on her part, it is nevertheless imperialist, 296 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 3: and it is informed entirely by the degree to which 297 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 3: we're executing hostile operations against people with dark skin. That's 298 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: her worldview. It is very naive, it is very childish, 299 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 3: but she's been taught her whole life that this is 300 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 3: the height of sophistication. That you can't understand the events 301 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 3: without layering onto them this elaborate academic framework that reduces 302 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,440 Speaker 3: everything to the influence of capital and the influence of race. 303 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 3: That's just her worldview, and it is impossible to navigate 304 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 3: foreign policy with that worldview. I should know. I went 305 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 3: through a foreign when I was in graduate school for 306 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 3: doing an IR degree. There were schools of thought that 307 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:50,479 Speaker 3: I had to understand, like the Feminist school of international relations, 308 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 3: which isn't a thing which does not help you understand 309 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 3: the geopolitical landscape and navigate it. The Marxist school of 310 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 3: international relations, which again is of a theory that reduces 311 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 3: everything to the pernicious influence of capital, and it's obstructive, 312 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 3: It obscures, it doesn't it doesn't enlighten you about how 313 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 3: the world works. It makes it very confusing how the 314 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,400 Speaker 3: world works, because nothing is behaving as your doctrine tells 315 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 3: you it should. This is the kind of world that 316 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 3: she comes from, and it was very interesting to see 317 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 3: the extent to which the entire planet seemed to agree 318 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 3: that what they were hearing was not sophisticated. They didn't 319 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 3: have to pretend as though this was some really nuanced 320 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 3: and authoritative outlook on foreign policy just to prop this 321 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 3: person up, even though she's a great white hope. They 322 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 3: let her fly, they let her flail, they let her fail, 323 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 3: and it was really refreshing to see that. I don't 324 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 3: know if it's going to be indicative of the future 325 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,879 Speaker 3: trajectory of her political career. She's going to be around 326 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,080 Speaker 3: for a very, very long time, but it was refreshing. 327 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 2: She's going to be around. 328 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,400 Speaker 1: She's going to be formidable because she talks in sloganeering 329 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: and emojis, and the American press is already trying to 330 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,199 Speaker 1: rally around her. I think in great ways. But that's 331 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: another conversation for another day. Noah Roth been National Review. 332 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,199 Speaker 1: I appreciate you taking the time. Moore is coming up 333 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: on Tony Katz, President Trump promising more information on UFOs, 334 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 1: and all I could say is, finally, this is all 335 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: we wanted Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, good to be here. 336 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 2: Good to be with you. 337 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 1: You had a President Obama leaking classified information, according to 338 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 1: President Trump, regarding extraterrestrials, and now. 339 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 2: He's saying, well, I might have to release some information here. 340 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 1: About UFOs and what are known as UAPs unidentified anomalist phenomena. 341 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: And I didn't know that was the thing, that was 342 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 1: what was called whatddy Kenny identify? 343 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 2: What will he release? I don't know. 344 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,880 Speaker 1: But man, everybody who's been talking about you know, UFOs 345 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 1: are real and the space aliens are real. 346 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,200 Speaker 2: Man, you don't understand, man. 347 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: And I was probed, man, and all those people have 348 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: been wealth indicated. And for the record, just we're playing 349 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: the home game. I do not in any way believe 350 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: that we are alone in the universe. I flat out 351 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 1: do not believe that we are alone in the universe 352 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: in any way, shape or form. I think you're I 353 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: think you're out of your head if you think in 354 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: an infinite universe that is ever expanding, we're the only 355 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: life form that's there's just no way that's possible. Does 356 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: that are you surprised to hear that? I mean, does 357 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 1: that make me conspiratorial? Because I think that's just rational. 358 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 1: An ever expanding universe and we are the only planet 359 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: that can actually produce life. Now, that's that's some egomaniacal 360 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: stuff right there. 361 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 2: I'm Tony Katz, and this is Tony Katz. Today. 362 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 1: The GDP comes in for the fourth quarter at one 363 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: point four percent, and I said. 364 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 2: My gosh, that's not big at all. 365 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:57,199 Speaker 1: Tony Katz, Tony Katz today, good to be with you. 366 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: One point four percent is a knee. 367 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:02,880 Speaker 2: What in the world is happening? 368 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: What happened to the five percent GDPs? What happened to 369 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: the massive growth? We saw good numbers just a couple 370 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: of weeks ago. This number doesn't seem to make any 371 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: sense at all. Doctor mattwill joins as economist at the 372 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: University of Indianapolis. I want to get to the GDP numbers, 373 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: but of course, the big story today the Supreme Court six' 374 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: to three decision saying That, no THE, ieepa which is 375 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: the ability to utilize the emergency, powers is not a 376 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: reason or is not something that can be utilized to 377 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 1: put forth. Tariffs The International Emergency Economic Powers act does 378 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: not authorize The president to offer up tariffs of basically 379 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: unlimited size and. 380 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 2: SCOPE a six to three. 381 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: Decision the descent From Samuel, Alito Clarence, thomas And Brett, 382 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 1: kavanaugh who wrote the, descent a rather interesting descent at 383 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: that as an, economist you look at, this, right this 384 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: is the, law not necessarily. Economics what does this decision 385 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:08,560 Speaker 1: say to? 386 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 4: You, well it says a. Lot this is this is 387 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 4: going to be a landmark. Decision it's going to go 388 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 4: down in. History it's going to be taught in law 389 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,919 Speaker 4: schools for a long. Time And i'll focus on just 390 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 4: the economic. Aspects they say it right out of the, 391 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 4: gate they say tariffs are. TAXES i know this will 392 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 4: be a shock to everyone in the, world but you 393 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 4: AND i have been saying this. Forever they say. It 394 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 4: they just, Say, okay terrorists are. Taxes then it goes 395 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 4: on to Say article one Gives congress the power to levy. Taxes, 396 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:39,399 Speaker 4: Surprise so, right out of the. Gate this thing is very, 397 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,360 Speaker 4: clear and then it gets into some very important issues such, 398 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 4: as you, know this is not a teriff, statute again 399 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 4: emphasizing the point that you AND i keep saying that 400 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 4: terrorists are taxes and the president doesn't have the power 401 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,639 Speaker 4: to impose. Taxes and one THING i really love about. 402 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 4: It it says tariffs are a tax on THE us, citizen, 403 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 4: again something that's obvious to all of. Us and they 404 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 4: say the president doesn't have the authority to impose taxes 405 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 4: on us without congressional, approval that it's Only. Congress but 406 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,560 Speaker 4: what it does say is that THE iepa it allows, 407 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 4: regulation and the president can regulate, things so he can 408 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 4: block Import it's clear on. This he can, Say i'm, Sorry, 409 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,920 Speaker 4: taiwan you cannot send something to THE. Us i'm, Sorry, 410 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 4: japan you cannot export this to THE. Us he can block, 411 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 4: imports but he can't TAX US us citizens on those. 412 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 4: Goods and that's the economic. Angle AND i think they 413 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 4: made the right. 414 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 1: Decision SO i will counter only by saying THAT i 415 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: think the tariffs are. 416 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 2: TAXES i state that tariffs are. 417 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: Taxes but with THE, ieepa the conversation, is how is it. 418 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 1: Possible and this is The kavanaugh. Descendant how is it 419 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,200 Speaker 1: possible THAT i can. REGULATE i could literally stop goods 420 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 1: from coming into a, country BUT i can't tariff. THEM 421 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 1: i would consider a tariff in that, case, regulating AND 422 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,200 Speaker 1: i would still be able to hold that a tariff 423 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 1: is a. Tax, now this doesn't, mean of, course that 424 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: The president can't engage tariffs through other. MEANS i believe 425 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: that he, will or at least he will. Try but 426 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 1: there's an argument to be made of, maybe, HEY i 427 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:20,639 Speaker 1: gave it the, shot they said, no and there's something better. 428 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 2: That comes from. 429 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 1: This the, tariffs let's say fall, away maybe. Money the, 430 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 1: money of COURSE i shouldn't say maybe it's going to 431 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: have to get paid back some one hundred and seventy 432 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: billion dollars whatever it. IS i don't know how that 433 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: part actually. Works what is going to be the market's 434 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: response to these tariffs being now basically. 435 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 4: Nullified, well, okay long, term the market's going to like. 436 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 4: This this is good because we don't like the. Taxes 437 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 4: nobody wants more, taxes well except for the. Left but 438 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,200 Speaker 4: in the short term it's. 439 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 3: Going to be a. 440 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 4: Negative even Though i'm against, tariffs it's a negative because 441 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 4: we just took a tool of bargaining chip away from the. 442 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 4: President so he's going to have to use an another bargaining, 443 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 4: tool another chip to put on the. Table and are 444 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 4: all these deals that he, did are they now null and? 445 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,199 Speaker 4: Void he just signed one yesterday With? Indonesia is that 446 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 4: null and? Void because those things do include? Tariffs do 447 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 4: they have to be approved by The? Senate because again 448 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 4: their trade agreements now and those things the president can't do. 449 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 4: Unilaterally he has to get the approval of The. Senate 450 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 4: SO i think long Term Wall street's going to be 451 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 4: happy with. This but right now there's some, chaos and you, 452 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 4: KNOW i guess that's the definition of The trump presidency 453 00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 4: is throw some chaos out there and see what. 454 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 1: Happened talking to, you Doctor Matt, will economist at The 455 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: university Of. Indianapolis now let's move it over to THIS 456 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 1: gdp one point four, percent and you also have a 457 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 1: conversation of inflation firming. Up they're saying three. Percent The 458 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,199 Speaker 1: fed is very very concerned about cutting. 459 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 2: Rates they absolutely don't want to do. 460 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 1: This this is Going i'm going to be yet another 461 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: fight that's going to place Before Jerome powell is. Replaced 462 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: but let's talk about this one point four PERCENT gdp 463 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: in the fourth. Quarter it was a two and a 464 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: half percent. Estimate that's a miss by basically a full. 465 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: Percent what the heck happened? 466 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 4: Here, okay there's a lot of parts to, this AND 467 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 4: i want us to cover all of them because it's. 468 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,040 Speaker 4: Important but let me say the. Headline it's not as 469 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 4: bad as the president. Thinks The president went right out 470 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 4: of the gating and he attacked The democrats for the. 471 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,080 Speaker 4: Shutdown he attacked your own poal for not cutting, rates 472 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 4: and you know, WHAT i understand him on both of those. 473 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 4: Points but it's not as bad as he. Thinks and 474 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,639 Speaker 4: you got to look under the. Hood you AND i 475 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 4: always do, this and let's look under the. Hood first of, 476 00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 4: all there is a one percent reduction IN gdp because 477 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 4: of the government, Shutdown so right out of the, gate 478 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 4: there's a one percent off number that we need to 479 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 4: take into. Account but there's some really good stuff in this. Report, 480 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 4: okay first good. Thing consumer spending is up two and 481 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 4: a half, percent two point Four that is an excellent. 482 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 4: Number probably my favorite number in this well maybe it's 483 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 4: my second. Favorite is domestic investment people putting shovel in the, 484 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 4: ground putting up, buildings building their businesses up three point eight. 485 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 4: Percent that's a very good. Number but there's two. Drags 486 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,919 Speaker 4: there's two things that are pulling it, down AND i 487 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 4: think they're good. Things one is the government shrink by 488 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 4: five point one. Percent remember we talked About BIDEN'S gdp 489 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 4: was up because he was growing. Government THIS gdp is 490 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 4: down because government shrank five point one. Percent this is a. 491 00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 4: Flaw it's a flaw with this Ridiculous knesy AND gdp 492 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,400 Speaker 4: formula in that the growth of government contributes to THE gdp. 493 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,640 Speaker 4: Number so IF i Were, Trump i'd, say, hey, yeah 494 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 4: one point, Four but come, on we struck. Government that's 495 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 4: a good. Thing private industry is, growing consumer spending is. Up, 496 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 4: okay government's. Down that's perfectly. Fine but there's also an 497 00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 4: import export angle on this that relates back to The 498 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 4: Supreme court. DECISION i thought they could be breath first 499 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 4: because there were a lot after just. 500 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 1: That, yeah the idea that the shutdown is CAUSING gdp 501 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:12,679 Speaker 1: to go. 502 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 2: Down what's? 503 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: Shutdown are referring to that The homeland security shutdown that's 504 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 1: been going on for just about a. 505 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,400 Speaker 2: Week are we talking about the shutdown From October. 506 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: November that's what, Well i'm talking fourth, quarter so of 507 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,680 Speaker 1: course you're talking about the shutdown From october And. NOVEMBER 508 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: i thought these were good things because it reduces government. 509 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: Payrolls now you're telling me that that also leads to 510 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:35,680 Speaker 1: a SMALLER. 511 00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:40,359 Speaker 4: Gdp, yes because remember we're not traveling as. Much you, 512 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 4: know The Homeland security had, Issues flights were, canceled rail issues, 513 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,439 Speaker 4: occurred people at the docks couldn't get goods, off you, 514 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,040 Speaker 4: know boats In Long beach and in they Own New. 515 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 4: Jersey so, no there's a lot of these things that 516 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 4: government does that you AND i, like you, know national. Defense, 517 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 4: okay those things are. Good they contribute to the activity 518 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 4: of the, country even if it's not government spending that's causing. 519 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 4: It so the government infrastructure that shut down cause all 520 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 4: of the, economy private economy to pull. Back and that's 521 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,359 Speaker 4: where we get the one percent. From and that's kind 522 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,000 Speaker 4: of the consensus estimate from economists across the. 523 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,399 Speaker 1: Board President trump putting out on a truth Social The 524 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,119 Speaker 1: democrats shutdown costs THE usa at least two points IN. 525 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 2: Gdp that's why they're doing. It in many. 526 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 1: Form, Again i'm talking about this latest. Shutdown no shutdowns 527 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,400 Speaker 1: also lower interest rates too. 528 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 2: Late powell is the. 529 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 1: Worst yet he hasn't fired too Late, powell AS i, 530 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: said The fed seems very very concerned about. Inflation they're 531 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: saying three, percent and they're saying they're they're hinting that 532 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 1: there won't be another rate. Cut you cutting? 533 00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 2: Rates? 534 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 4: Good, well okay, again let's let's let's put aside the 535 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 4: wash combo decision of rate cuts and balance. Sheet but 536 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 4: this report indicate. Inflation they have their own numbers called 537 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 4: the gd price. Deflator it's an indication of inflation that's 538 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 4: built into THE gdp. Report it was three point seven. 539 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 4: Percent that's not an annualized. Number it was actually by their, 540 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 4: definition not the matt. Willmath by their definition in this, 541 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:21,720 Speaker 4: report three point seven percent inflation for the third or 542 00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 4: for the fourth. Quarter that is. Real and that also 543 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 4: was a drag ON gdp because you, know we call 544 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 4: NOMINAL gdp versus REAL. Gdp it's adjusted for. Inflation and 545 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 4: the inflation was three point seven. Percent it is not 546 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 4: gone into cut rates right now without a setting of 547 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,840 Speaker 4: the balance, sheet would even contribute more to. Inflation so 548 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 4: the president's wrong to be pointing the finger at your 549 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 4: own pal on is that that's NOT i don't agree with. 550 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:51,600 Speaker 1: Him but you do agree that the shutdown Of October 551 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: november led to a LOWER gdp. 552 00:29:55,560 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 4: Overall, yes it led to a LOWER, gdp AND i 553 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 4: believe the one percent. Estimate you, know the president likes 554 00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 4: to use. Hyperbole but, again the shutdown also reduced the 555 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 4: size of, government which also REDUCED. Gdp but there's a 556 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 4: very interesting part of this report import, export because again 557 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 4: this is a flaw with THE. Gdp it doesn't consider 558 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 4: foreign direct. Investment so we had fewer exports last quarter 559 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:29,240 Speaker 4: and more. Imports that's a drag ON gdp because it's 560 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 4: a flaw in THE gdp. 561 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:31,720 Speaker 3: FORMULA i want a lot of. 562 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 4: IMPORTS i want to buy cheap stuff From germany and 563 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,280 Speaker 4: From switzerland and from THE. Uk but that's a drag ON. 564 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 4: Gdp and his. Tariffs we've said it a million, times 565 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,360 Speaker 4: And i'm not. Good i'm not going to stop saying. 566 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 4: It his tariff's actually harm manufacturing and exports and. IMPORTS 567 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 4: i give you The whirlpool, EXAMPLE i give you The intel. 568 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 4: Example whenever you put protectionist tariffs in, place it only 569 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 4: protects your. Industry short, term long, term it hurts your, 570 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 4: industry and that's what we see in this Gd The 571 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 4: april tariffs hurt the fourth QUARTER. 572 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,640 Speaker 1: Gdp, hey you, know sometimes the gift comes in all 573 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:07,000 Speaker 1: sorts of. 574 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 2: Ways if the tariffs. 575 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 1: Are, gone your argument would be on my, argument we're 576 00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 1: going to see. 577 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 2: Some very good growth that could take. 578 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 1: Place but really quick on this trade, deficit because The 579 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: Wall Street journal had the Story america imported a record 580 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 1: amount last year despite seismic trade policy. Changes you saw 581 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:27,719 Speaker 1: seventy point three billion DOLLARS us trade deficit goods and services. 582 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 1: Monthly and what you're saying is that even with the 583 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,120 Speaker 1: tariffs and this claim that we were going to close trade, 584 00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: gaps that's not the way it. Works the trade gap 585 00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: is as big as. 586 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:44,360 Speaker 4: Ever, yes this is not news liberal, economists conservative, economists 587 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 4: it doesn't. Matter trade tariffs do not reduce your trade. 588 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 4: Deficit the president has this false impression in his mind 589 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 4: and he can't get rid of, it and The Wall 590 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 4: Street journal is reporting exactly the. DATA i just explained 591 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 4: the tariffs had a short term bump in trade, deficits 592 00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,120 Speaker 4: long term harm to. Him but, Again i'm a fan 593 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 4: of trade. DEFICITS i don't like the word. DEFICITS i 594 00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 4: don't want to include some other things in the. 595 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 1: Explanation so if you're advising the, president, hey The Supreme 596 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: court ruled against you just on THE ieepa, right not 597 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: tariffs and. Tote we should be clear about. 598 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 2: That six to three. 599 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:25,239 Speaker 1: Decisions The Supreme court rules against UTILIZING taraza via This 600 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: Emergency Powers. 601 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 2: Act what are you advising? 602 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: Him you're his, economist just sitting there in the, oval 603 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 1: and he's, Like, matt what do you THINK i should? 604 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:38,959 Speaker 4: Do, Hooster, president this is a great opportunity for. You 605 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,720 Speaker 4: what you need to do is use some other tools 606 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 4: other than the tariff tool block import of. GOODS i 607 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,160 Speaker 4: think that is a bigger hammer to use against a 608 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 4: country in a trade negotiation than a tariff or attacks 609 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 4: on THE us. Citizen use other tools to bring them 610 00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,800 Speaker 4: to their. KNEES i think he's capable of doing. THAT 611 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 4: i have incredible trust in this president and is negotiating. 612 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 4: Skills just use a different technique rather than, tariffs AND 613 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 4: i think you can accomplish the same, results if not, Better. 614 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: Doctor, mattwell economist at The university Of. INDIANAPOLIS i appreciate 615 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,240 Speaker 1: you being with us more to get To I'm Tony. 616 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 1: KATZ i have not talked much about The, olympics but 617 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: watching the women hockey team win a gold, medal it 618 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 1: was it was pretty Solid Tony, Katz Tony katz. 619 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,000 Speaker 2: Today good to be, here good to be with. 620 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: You it was a very very Worthwhile the, OVERTIME i, 621 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 1: mean first of, all just overtime in. 622 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,360 Speaker 2: General how this had to come. About and then THE 623 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: i mean it was a sick. 624 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 1: MOVE i don't consider myself a hockey expert by any 625 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 1: stretch of the, imagination but it was an incredible. Move 626 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 1: to be able to move the puck back to the center, 627 00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:10,800 Speaker 1: ice to be able to take that shot in. Incredible 628 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: and then they get their gold medals and what do they. 629 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:23,439 Speaker 1: Do they're singing the national anthem. TOGETHER i, mean that's 630 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 1: kind of all we, wanted, right some people fighting For 631 00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 1: america win or, lose who actually liked the country they come. 632 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 2: From that's. 633 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 3: What we. 634 00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 2: Wanted that's all we were asking for in These. 635 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:41,239 Speaker 1: Olympics and then to See Alyssa lou winning the gold 636 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,360 Speaker 1: medal in figure, skating. 637 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:44,720 Speaker 2: SHE i, mean that's a crazy. 638 00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,319 Speaker 1: STORY i never minded the story of her father and 639 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,359 Speaker 1: being A chinese dissident and The chinese going after, him 640 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,720 Speaker 1: and then they wanted his daughter to skate For china 641 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 1: and he's, like that is not happening as opposed to 642 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,240 Speaker 1: This Eileen, gou who skates For china instead of The United, 643 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 1: states and she gets upset when people talk about. 644 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,840 Speaker 2: Her she's, LIKE i feel like a punching. Bag Aileen. 645 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,799 Speaker 1: Goo She's, american but she's she skis For. China you 646 00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 1: don't feel like a punching. Bag you feel like a 647 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 1: punching bag that's filled with millions of dollars From china 648 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,320 Speaker 1: because that's what they're paying you to ski for, them. 649 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 2: Not our. 650 00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,760 Speaker 1: Problem if you feel like somehow you're not being treated, 651 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,279 Speaker 1: right you're skiing for. 652 00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:32,200 Speaker 2: The, commies it's. Gross Alyssa lou winning the gold. 653 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: Medal the story here is that she was was she 654 00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,959 Speaker 1: An olympic champion or a national. Champion she was really 655 00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,120 Speaker 1: like a young young, teenager thirteen something like, that and she. 656 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:42,600 Speaker 2: Left she left a. Sport she's, Like i'm. 657 00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,279 Speaker 1: Done four years later she's, like, Yeah i'm gonna come 658 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: back to. 659 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,680 Speaker 2: It they don't take four years off as An olympic. 660 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 1: Athlete she did came back won a gold, medal that's, 661 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:56,760 Speaker 1: nuts crazy. 662 00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,439 Speaker 2: Cool find everything At tony katz dot. COM i will 663 00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 2: catch you. Tomorrow, everyone take, care