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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: The unemployment rate's gone up five point one percent in

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Speaker 2: the final quarter of twenty twenty four, up from four

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Speaker 2: point eight percent in the September quarter. Unemployment now the

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Speaker 2: highest it's been since September twenty twenty, that's when it

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Speaker 2: was five point two percent. Keep we Bank chief economist

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Speaker 2: Jared Curves with me, Jared, good evening, Good evening. So

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Speaker 2: this is what everyone was expecting. Does that mean we

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Speaker 2: can continue expecting that the interest rates will come down

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Speaker 2: in two weeks?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. It came in line with expectations, but to

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Speaker 1: be fair, expectations are pretty miserable and it was an

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Speaker 1: ugly report, and it does suggest the Reserve Being needs

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Speaker 1: to do more to put this economy into recovery mode.

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Speaker 2: More than what they told us they'd do, in other words,

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Speaker 2: more than half a percent.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. I think they'll deliver fifty in February, but we're

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Speaker 1: thinking about where they end this year. They're telling us

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Speaker 1: they'll cut to three and a half percent. We're telling

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Speaker 1: them we think they need to cut to three.

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Speaker 2: Percent by when the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, by the middle of this year, end of this year.

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Speaker 1: The main point is that interest rates are still restrictive,

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Speaker 1: the restraining households, they're restraining businesses. We've seen it in

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Speaker 1: the labor market. It's time, it's time to take some

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Speaker 1: of that pressure off.

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Speaker 2: Is there a point where you get so far in

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Speaker 2: a rut you can't even begin to see your way out?

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Speaker 2: And is that where we are now? In terms of

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Speaker 2: consumer confidence in spending.

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Speaker 1: We were definitely in quite a rut last year. We

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Speaker 1: are somewhat optimistic that things turn around this year. I

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Speaker 1: think there's always a way to sort of dig your

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Speaker 1: way out of problems, and we certainly will do that.

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Speaker 1: It just takes more action from our policy makers.

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Speaker 2: Growth. I've been looking at the numbers from the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank and from Treasury. They reckon, we're going to go.

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Speaker 2: This is Treasury from half a percent growth through till June,

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Speaker 2: so barely registering to three point three percent by June

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six. Does that sound highly optimistic to you.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of in line with what we're expecting. You know,

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Speaker 1: these rate cuts come through, they'll feed through over the

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Speaker 1: next six months. You're working off a very low base,

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Speaker 1: so very low levels, and you start seeing a recovery

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Speaker 1: into twenty and twenty six and yeah, we're sort of

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Speaker 1: pitching the idea that we'll see two to three percent

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Speaker 1: growth rates into twenty twenty six. It's definitely possible. And

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Speaker 1: you know something, we hope that we will see.

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Speaker 2: I certainly hope we do too. Thanks so much for

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Speaker 2: your time, Jared Jared Kirk Keepy Bank chief Economists. For

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Speaker 2: more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks.

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Speaker 2: It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast

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