WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #283 - May 7th 2025 - Nick Cater 0:00:09.093 --> 0:00:11.973 You're listening to a podcast from news Talks it be 0:00:12.373 --> 0:00:16.133 follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:16.693 --> 0:00:19.733 It's time for all the attitude, all the opinion, all 0:00:19.773 --> 0:00:24.293 the information, all the debates of the sis, Now the 0:00:24.453 --> 0:00:27.733 Layton Smith Podcast powered by news Talks. 0:00:27.453 --> 0:00:31.053 It be Welcome to podcasts two eighty three, May seven, 0:00:31.093 --> 0:00:34.853 twenty twenty five. Whichever way you look at it, Australia 0:00:34.893 --> 0:00:38.813 is in political turmoil after the election last Saturday May third. 0:00:39.693 --> 0:00:41.973 There are numerous and plenty of theories as to why. 0:00:42.493 --> 0:00:45.653 There's plenty of propaganda lots of it. One thing is 0:00:45.733 --> 0:00:49.453 certain and lies. One thing is certain, it's a man 0:00:49.453 --> 0:00:53.293 made problem. Question is where does it lead. Nick Cator 0:00:53.333 --> 0:00:55.973 returns in two eighty three to help analyze how a 0:00:56.093 --> 0:00:58.853 government with such a poor record in the first term 0:00:59.093 --> 0:01:02.573 could nuke its opposition so decisively and what it means 0:01:02.613 --> 0:01:08.733 to important issues, starting with free speech, taxation, defense, climate issues, 0:01:09.093 --> 0:01:13.093 energy supply, and of course the cost of living. And 0:01:13.213 --> 0:01:15.253 let's use a little common sense. The cost of living 0:01:15.333 --> 0:01:19.173 is attached to directly to much of the aforementioned, such 0:01:19.213 --> 0:01:22.213 as energy supply, and there is plenty to be said 0:01:22.253 --> 0:01:25.413 about that, but just as a teaser. Here is a 0:01:25.493 --> 0:01:29.693 letter that I received yesterday from Brian Leyland, who is 0:01:30.253 --> 0:01:34.693 a man of vast experience in power supply. He said, 0:01:35.093 --> 0:01:37.693 I've sent this letter to the editor of a newspaper. 0:01:38.133 --> 0:01:40.533 I will be very surprised if it gets published, and 0:01:40.573 --> 0:01:43.013 so far there is no sign of it. New Zealand 0:01:43.013 --> 0:01:46.293 could save billions of dollars simply by following the example 0:01:46.293 --> 0:01:50.013 of many other countries and quietly backpedal on the rash 0:01:50.053 --> 0:01:52.493 promises that we made when we signed the Paris Agreement. 0:01:53.133 --> 0:01:56.053 This will have no effect on the climate because anything 0:01:56.093 --> 0:01:59.533 New Zealand does to reduce emissions will be swamped by 0:01:59.533 --> 0:02:02.853 the emissions from China, India and the United States. The 0:02:02.893 --> 0:02:06.933 carbon market costs about five hundred million dollars a year, 0:02:07.653 --> 0:02:11.893 and axes increase the cost of transport by billions. That's 0:02:11.933 --> 0:02:15.573 with a b of dollars. The previous government's ban on 0:02:15.853 --> 0:02:19.173 gas exploration has left us short of gas and forced 0:02:19.213 --> 0:02:22.613 us to import even more coal. This has cost electricity 0:02:22.613 --> 0:02:27.933 consumers billions of dollars. Likewise electric vehicles and their charging points. 0:02:28.653 --> 0:02:32.093 Then there is the multi billion dollar capital costs of 0:02:32.293 --> 0:02:38.053 unreliable wind and solar farms. Fundamentally uneconomic industries that only 0:02:38.173 --> 0:02:41.733 exist thanks to subsidies and mandates in many other countries. 0:02:42.533 --> 0:02:46.533 The rational alternative is to use our substantial resources of 0:02:46.573 --> 0:02:50.853 gas and coal in existing stations, build more hydro and geothermal, 0:02:51.173 --> 0:02:55.853 and then transition to safe and reliable nuclear power. This 0:02:55.973 --> 0:03:00.813 would provide a reliable and economic supply for the foreseeable future. 0:03:01.133 --> 0:03:05.893 And with his experience and having read lots of background 0:03:06.013 --> 0:03:10.133 on such matters, I endorse exactly what he said. We 0:03:10.253 --> 0:03:13.293 have politicians in power at the moment who are not 0:03:13.373 --> 0:03:16.413 delivering a staying close to home. There is another matter 0:03:16.453 --> 0:03:19.613 that I want to make mention of. This comes from 0:03:19.613 --> 0:03:22.733 a column by Graham Adams. Graham Adams is a freelancer 0:03:23.333 --> 0:03:29.773 who published this through ENZCPR dot com Murial Newman's website. 0:03:30.413 --> 0:03:33.013 So it's worthy of finding and reading in its entirety, 0:03:33.053 --> 0:03:35.933 because I'm not going to read it all. Auckland University 0:03:35.973 --> 0:03:39.933 students react to Treaty indoctrination. This year the University of 0:03:39.973 --> 0:03:42.813 Auckland launched this is something we knew, but this is 0:03:42.853 --> 0:03:46.053 a follow up that is a good one. This year, 0:03:46.093 --> 0:03:49.333 the University of Auckland launched a mandatory courses focused on 0:03:49.453 --> 0:03:54.053 a particular view of New Zealand History, a tyrrity and 0:03:54.333 --> 0:04:00.173 indigenous quote knowledge systems unquote, which is to say matteunger Mary. 0:04:00.573 --> 0:04:04.013 For all first year students, it doesn't matter whether you're 0:04:04.013 --> 0:04:08.893 studying engineering, accounting, science or arts. You'll have to enroll 0:04:09.053 --> 0:04:13.693 in one of the WTR papers, even if you can 0:04:13.773 --> 0:04:17.093 see no value in the topic and object to having 0:04:17.133 --> 0:04:20.093 to pay for it. Domestic students are obliged to pay 0:04:20.133 --> 0:04:24.213 fees of more than one thousand, three hundred for the 0:04:24.253 --> 0:04:28.933 single paper, but international students are ones being really screwed 0:04:29.293 --> 0:04:32.053 with five thousand, seven hundred and thirty dollars well up 0:04:32.093 --> 0:04:35.493 to Apparently it should come as no surprise, he writes 0:04:36.053 --> 0:04:40.453 to the university's Vice Chancellor, Dawn Freshwater and her management 0:04:40.493 --> 0:04:44.773 team that the courses are not universally popular. A petition 0:04:45.133 --> 0:04:50.653 titled stop the WTR one hundred series Courses ASAP has 0:04:50.693 --> 0:04:55.013 gained one four hundred and sixty seven signatures across multiple 0:04:55.013 --> 0:04:59.333 faculties since it was launched in early April. The organizers 0:04:59.333 --> 0:05:01.413 of the petition were very careful to make it clear 0:05:01.493 --> 0:05:04.293 that their objection isn't to students being taught about the 0:05:04.293 --> 0:05:08.573 treaty and the true significance of Marie history in modern 0:05:09.253 --> 0:05:13.933 at Rower per se, but rather the execution of the 0:05:13.933 --> 0:05:19.413 course material. Their rejection centered on student's assessments that the 0:05:19.853 --> 0:05:24.733 content is vague, poorly structured, and disconnected to the degrees 0:05:24.773 --> 0:05:29.053 from which they are enrolled in. It is oversimplified, politically 0:05:29.093 --> 0:05:35.053 one sided, and lacking academic depths. In other words, it's nonsense. However, 0:05:35.173 --> 0:05:38.053 students who gave their reasons for signing the petition were 0:05:38.173 --> 0:05:41.013 more forthright. One said, the course and here have to 0:05:41.053 --> 0:05:43.493 be a little careful. One said, the course has a 0:05:43.613 --> 0:05:47.573 very small amount of valuable content compared to the amount 0:05:47.653 --> 0:05:52.413 of BS content presented. I haven't learned, and then you 0:05:52.453 --> 0:05:55.693 get the second half of the BS. I haven't learned 0:05:56.253 --> 0:05:59.493 so far, and we've done almost six weeks of it. 0:05:59.853 --> 0:06:02.653 Waste of time, waste of money, waste of resources. Never 0:06:02.653 --> 0:06:05.493 should have been created in the first place. Others described 0:06:05.493 --> 0:06:09.093 it as racist, brainwashing, propaganda and the growing of our 0:06:09.213 --> 0:06:15.733 use and woke nonsense, with the content controlled by apartheid enthusiasts. 0:06:16.093 --> 0:06:21.693 One female student wrote, it's just pure, unnecessarily forced indoctrination 0:06:21.973 --> 0:06:26.533 of Marie mythicism and totally inaccurate New Zealand history, as 0:06:26.573 --> 0:06:31.053 well as the extortion of money. Ninety nine percent of 0:06:31.053 --> 0:06:34.173 students would elect to spend their course fees on a 0:06:34.213 --> 0:06:39.133 subject they're passionate about, rather than these Marxist courses designed 0:06:39.133 --> 0:06:41.853 to turn them into angry radicals. It is not yet 0:06:41.893 --> 0:06:44.453 clear how many of the signatories are first year students 0:06:44.493 --> 0:06:48.533 currently enrolled in the courses, which are tailored for different faculties, 0:06:48.933 --> 0:06:52.413 but the university estimates around seven thousand students in total 0:06:52.693 --> 0:06:55.933 will complete them this year. Descent is not limited to 0:06:55.973 --> 0:07:00.133 the petition. Criticism is common on social media. Our one 0:07:00.173 --> 0:07:03.053 Facebook friend contacted me to say, I wonder how long 0:07:03.053 --> 0:07:06.173 the WT papers will continue. My son is at Auckland 0:07:06.253 --> 0:07:09.253 Journey and he said the students are pushing back in class. 0:07:09.333 --> 0:07:14.173 The lecturers are very defensive. I don't know how the 0:07:14.253 --> 0:07:18.653 lecturers feel about it. Probably, knowing universities these days, the 0:07:18.653 --> 0:07:21.013 majority of them would be very much in favor of it. 0:07:21.573 --> 0:07:24.653 But I'll cut to the last paragraph. How long taxpayers 0:07:24.653 --> 0:07:29.613 will agree to support universities which dedicate themselves to decolonization 0:07:30.173 --> 0:07:34.333 and the overthrow of Western knowledge and boast about it 0:07:34.413 --> 0:07:39.253 as Auckland University's newsletter has done is open to question. 0:07:39.693 --> 0:07:42.253 I don't think it's going to survive. They might try 0:07:42.253 --> 0:07:44.413 and make it so, but I don't think it will. 0:07:44.573 --> 0:07:50.493 It isn't warranted, it's outrageously stupidly expensive, and the whole 0:07:50.533 --> 0:07:54.733 thing is purely propaganda. Now just a reminder there is 0:07:54.733 --> 0:07:58.933 some good commentary at the end of the podcast, after 0:07:59.253 --> 0:08:02.293 the mail room, but in a moment after a short 0:08:02.333 --> 0:08:13.813 break nick Cator. Buccolan is a natural oral vaccine in 0:08:13.853 --> 0:08:17.693 a tablet form called bacterial licate. It'll boost your natural 0:08:17.733 --> 0:08:21.253 protection against bacterial infections in your chest and throat. A 0:08:21.293 --> 0:08:24.133 three day course of seven Bucklan tablets will help your 0:08:24.133 --> 0:08:27.613 body build up to three months of immunity against bugs 0:08:27.733 --> 0:08:31.933 which cause bacterial cold symptoms. So who can take buccolan well, 0:08:32.053 --> 0:08:34.893 the whole family From two years of age and upwards. 0:08:35.053 --> 0:08:38.093 A course of Buckelan tablets offers cost effective and safe 0:08:38.133 --> 0:08:42.333 protection from colds and chills. Protection becomes effective a few 0:08:42.413 --> 0:08:45.253 days after you take buccolan and lasts for up to 0:08:45.293 --> 0:08:48.333 three months following the three day course. Buccolan can be 0:08:48.373 --> 0:08:51.813 taken throughout the cold season, over winter, or all year round. 0:08:52.053 --> 0:08:54.973 And remember, Buckolan is not intended as an alternative to 0:08:55.013 --> 0:08:58.453 influenza vaccination, but may be used along with the flu 0:08:58.533 --> 0:09:02.653 vaccination for added protection. And keep in mind that millions 0:09:02.653 --> 0:09:05.933 of doses have been taken by Kiwis for over fifty years. 0:09:06.293 --> 0:09:09.333 Only available from your pharmacist all ways, read the label 0:09:09.613 --> 0:09:12.853 and users directed, and see your doctor if systems persist. 0:09:13.013 --> 0:09:26.773 Farmer Broker Auckland Leighton Smith. So, at the point of 0:09:26.813 --> 0:09:31.013 recording this conversation, the ALP in Australia has won eighty 0:09:31.053 --> 0:09:34.013 seven seats in the Liberal National Party coalition has one 0:09:34.133 --> 0:09:38.453 thirty nine. Damning as hell, you might say, and it is, 0:09:38.493 --> 0:09:41.333 but things are changing a little bit, a little bit. 0:09:41.373 --> 0:09:44.933 They're lifting Couyong is a very interesting seat. But the 0:09:44.973 --> 0:09:49.613 real question for Nick Cata is what went wrong? 0:09:51.413 --> 0:09:54.133 You want to want a quick two sentence answer to that, Yeah, 0:09:55.013 --> 0:09:57.453 and then we shall explain that. Well, I'll try and 0:09:57.453 --> 0:10:01.373 give you one. Then what went wrong was that the 0:10:01.413 --> 0:10:07.773 Liberals forgot how to do politics and that Labor didn't 0:10:07.813 --> 0:10:11.333 know how to do politics. I think that's a simple thing. 0:10:11.453 --> 0:10:14.373 This was not about an honest debate about policy or 0:10:14.373 --> 0:10:18.413 anything like that. This was the most political election I've 0:10:18.413 --> 0:10:22.173 ever seen. It was just played ruthlessly by Labor and 0:10:22.853 --> 0:10:25.093 the Liberals just couldn't match it well. 0:10:25.133 --> 0:10:28.493 Watching Sky News last night, and it wasn't the only time, 0:10:28.693 --> 0:10:32.933 but the sound waves were filled with lies, lies, lies 0:10:33.333 --> 0:10:37.173 that were told by Labor. By ALBERANIZI, you agree with 0:10:37.213 --> 0:10:39.413 that very definitely. 0:10:39.453 --> 0:10:42.613 But that I think Labor and its friends would say 0:10:42.613 --> 0:10:47.853 it's just politics. I'd say it's a distinct erosion about 0:10:48.773 --> 0:10:52.213 civic debate and everything we hold dear. I mean, you've 0:10:52.213 --> 0:10:54.693 got to be able to think that when a prime 0:10:54.693 --> 0:10:57.973 minister opens his mouth, that he's actually speaking the truth 0:10:58.213 --> 0:11:01.253 as he knows it, or some approximation of that. You know, 0:11:01.293 --> 0:11:03.773 we know that they're going to cherry pick the figures 0:11:03.813 --> 0:11:06.653 that work for them, or they might just exaggerate just 0:11:06.693 --> 0:11:10.333 a touch in their rhetoric, well more than a touch. 0:11:10.373 --> 0:11:13.653 But when the prime minister actually says figures, puts a 0:11:13.693 --> 0:11:18.653 figure forward like the opposition's nuclear policy is going to 0:11:18.653 --> 0:11:21.973 cost six hundred billion dollars, and says it not just 0:11:22.053 --> 0:11:26.733 once but repeatedly, and has picked up many times being 0:11:26.733 --> 0:11:29.333 told well, that's not actual the figure, that's not even 0:11:29.333 --> 0:11:32.653 the figure that your own csiro are telling you. He 0:11:32.693 --> 0:11:36.093 doesn't relent, He just does not back away from that figure. 0:11:36.733 --> 0:11:40.093 So I'm troubled by it. Maybe I'm just being old fashioned. 0:11:40.133 --> 0:11:43.773 And I think that we should expect politics or politicians, 0:11:43.853 --> 0:11:47.693 but certainly the leader of the government to speak the 0:11:47.733 --> 0:11:50.573 truth and if he makes a mistake or he misssteps 0:11:50.573 --> 0:11:51.893 and he should correct himself. 0:11:52.613 --> 0:11:55.853 That hasn't happened. That hasn't happened. Now. He still didn't 0:11:55.893 --> 0:11:56.893 fall off the stage. 0:11:57.653 --> 0:12:01.613 No, well he did once. Some of your listeners may 0:12:01.613 --> 0:12:03.973 have seen that memorable shop where he tripped off the 0:12:03.973 --> 0:12:06.973 back of the stage and then afterwards said no, no, 0:12:07.053 --> 0:12:09.613 I didn't fall. I was fine, I didn't fall, And 0:12:09.813 --> 0:12:12.093 we have the video showing he fell, but he never 0:12:12.133 --> 0:12:14.253 admitted he even fell off the stage. But because the 0:12:14.293 --> 0:12:18.973 irony was on election night, the entire Liberal party fell 0:12:18.973 --> 0:12:20.773 off the stage and it's going to take them a 0:12:20.813 --> 0:12:22.213 long time to get back up again. 0:12:23.133 --> 0:12:27.253 Well, I agree with the commentary that says they won't 0:12:27.253 --> 0:12:30.133 be ready for retaking the reins of government by the 0:12:30.213 --> 0:12:33.133 next election. It'll be at the earliest opportunity the one 0:12:33.173 --> 0:12:36.613 after that. But then again, before you comment on that, 0:12:37.013 --> 0:12:40.573 then again, you never know what's going to happen on 0:12:40.613 --> 0:12:43.373 the planet at the moment that could change things. Is 0:12:43.373 --> 0:12:46.173 that a fair comment? Yeah, you just answered your own 0:12:46.253 --> 0:12:49.773 point for me. I mean it's just all we know 0:12:49.933 --> 0:12:52.373 now is that, well, the only thing we can predict 0:12:52.613 --> 0:12:55.173 with some certainty is that the next three years are 0:12:55.213 --> 0:12:58.213 going to be less predictable than we could even imagine. 0:12:58.293 --> 0:13:00.493 So that's just the way it goes, both in world 0:13:00.533 --> 0:13:04.853 affairs and in politics. I mean, all the old rules. 0:13:04.933 --> 0:13:09.733 People used to say, well, it's a second term government, 0:13:09.813 --> 0:13:13.133 so a government that's seeking a second term always suffers 0:13:13.133 --> 0:13:15.573 a swing against it. And that's true going back to 0:13:15.613 --> 0:13:19.653 World War Two, certainly probably before, but it wasn't true 0:13:19.653 --> 0:13:23.413 this time. So there's one rule that's broken. And there 0:13:23.453 --> 0:13:25.253 was always said, look, if you didn't get at least 0:13:25.773 --> 0:13:27.813 forty percent of the primary vote, you didn't have a 0:13:27.893 --> 0:13:29.813 hope of coming anywhere near to government. 0:13:30.173 --> 0:13:31.613 But that's out of the window now. 0:13:31.733 --> 0:13:34.613 So and it was said in going back a little 0:13:34.653 --> 0:13:39.013 bit further, when John Howard lost the election in two 0:13:39.093 --> 0:13:43.173 thousand and seven, lost his seat Landslide to Kevin Rudd. Oh, 0:13:43.213 --> 0:13:45.413 the Liberals won't get him back in power for at 0:13:45.533 --> 0:13:49.893 least two elections, nearly three, probably three or four. They 0:13:50.053 --> 0:13:52.733 almost got back the next election. They were very close 0:13:53.053 --> 0:13:56.093 that label was in a minority government, and then they 0:13:56.133 --> 0:13:58.813 came back the one after that, so the comeback last 0:13:58.853 --> 0:14:02.813 time was much quicker than people were predicting on election night. 0:14:02.853 --> 0:14:04.133 I mean a lot of people have been saying I 0:14:04.133 --> 0:14:07.133 think I heard Peter Credin say this last night. Politics 0:14:07.693 --> 0:14:10.573 is never as bad as you think, and it's never 0:14:10.613 --> 0:14:13.653 as good as you think. So any given moment in time, 0:14:14.413 --> 0:14:18.653 you know, things are always better than what you're imagining 0:14:18.813 --> 0:14:23.093 and not as good as you imagine in the good times. 0:14:24.053 --> 0:14:28.773 Was she do you think genuine with that comment or 0:14:28.813 --> 0:14:33.293 was she just trying to paste over it? Yes? 0:14:33.333 --> 0:14:37.253 I think she was genuine because she's lived through enough campaigns, 0:14:37.693 --> 0:14:39.973 many of them on the inside. Working as you know, 0:14:41.173 --> 0:14:46.293 was a very close advice to Tony Abbott and lived 0:14:46.293 --> 0:14:49.773 all through that campaign, both campaigns twenty ten, twenty thirteen. 0:14:49.773 --> 0:14:53.933 Her husband is a campaign director. First election was two 0:14:53.973 --> 0:14:57.333 thousand and four with John how You know, when you've 0:14:57.373 --> 0:15:00.173 been around in this game for a while, you know, 0:15:00.213 --> 0:15:03.253 you learn not to write anybody off or to think 0:15:03.293 --> 0:15:07.733 anything's a dead certainty. And that's that's probably the story 0:15:07.733 --> 0:15:08.333 of this campaign. 0:15:09.613 --> 0:15:12.533 I have to throw in, seeing you just mentioned John Howard. 0:15:13.013 --> 0:15:15.973 I was literally shocked this morning at a picture I 0:15:16.053 --> 0:15:21.573 saw in The Australian of John Howard. He's looking very old. 0:15:23.333 --> 0:15:27.093 Yeah, yeah he is. He is old. Are you going 0:15:27.133 --> 0:15:30.133 to ask me his age? I never like to even 0:15:30.173 --> 0:15:30.653 think about it. 0:15:30.773 --> 0:15:31.173 Ask him. 0:15:31.373 --> 0:15:35.893 He's one of those people you would dearly love to 0:15:35.933 --> 0:15:39.493 be around forever because he's just got such experienced, such wisdom. 0:15:39.813 --> 0:15:43.373 He's very well loved in the country. But he's you know, 0:15:43.413 --> 0:15:46.813 he's like all of us. He's getting older, but his 0:15:46.853 --> 0:15:48.653 mind is still as sharp as anything. I mean, he 0:15:48.733 --> 0:15:53.933 still speaks brilliantly and perceptively. And you know, I had 0:15:53.933 --> 0:15:56.813 a text exchange with him yesterday about an issue. He's 0:15:57.053 --> 0:15:59.693 very much engaged and has an office here in the 0:15:59.773 --> 0:16:03.573 center of the city center of Sydney and welcomes good 0:16:03.573 --> 0:16:05.573 people to go around and sit in the armchair and 0:16:05.653 --> 0:16:07.533 chat with him about this and that. He always wants 0:16:07.573 --> 0:16:11.573 the latest political gossip. Who doesn't. So he's so much involved. 0:16:11.573 --> 0:16:14.093 But so then the question is, well, who's the next 0:16:14.333 --> 0:16:17.573 person to step up as the next a kind of 0:16:17.693 --> 0:16:20.253 eminence careeze, you know that the sort of great wise 0:16:20.373 --> 0:16:25.013 head behind the scenes. Probably that's Tony Abbott. He's adapting 0:16:25.053 --> 0:16:28.853 to that role of elder statesman very well, although he's 0:16:28.933 --> 0:16:30.973 kind of kicking against it. I think he wants to 0:16:30.973 --> 0:16:33.093 be back in the thick of it. 0:16:33.133 --> 0:16:35.133 Is there any reason why he shouldn't be back in 0:16:35.133 --> 0:16:35.573 the thick of it? 0:16:37.013 --> 0:16:42.253 None at all, None at all, and particularly now. I 0:16:42.293 --> 0:16:44.933 mean the only reason is that it's the logistics of it. 0:16:45.133 --> 0:16:46.973 He'd have to find a seat that he could win. 0:16:47.053 --> 0:16:49.413 But I think, you know, we've a lot of He've 0:16:49.453 --> 0:16:53.453 been talking for some time, sometimes jokingly, sometimes half serious 0:16:53.493 --> 0:16:55.853 that if he found the right seat in Western Sydney, 0:16:55.893 --> 0:16:58.133 where you know, the area where he's very popular, he 0:16:58.853 --> 0:17:01.493 could win it. It wouldn't be a certainty, of course, 0:17:01.533 --> 0:17:04.973 but he could be back in the Parliament. And right now, 0:17:05.013 --> 0:17:07.013 I don't think there's anybody who would stand in his 0:17:07.053 --> 0:17:10.613 way of becoming leader again. And be a very unusual thing, 0:17:11.293 --> 0:17:14.493 certainly post war. But before that it wasn't you know, 0:17:14.693 --> 0:17:17.613 people came and got we came and went from politics, 0:17:17.653 --> 0:17:20.853 didn't they, including you know, people like Winston Churchill for instance. 0:17:20.893 --> 0:17:25.613 So it's not an impossible thing to imagine. He's certainly 0:17:25.613 --> 0:17:28.373 full of vigor and energy and very very sharp. 0:17:29.333 --> 0:17:32.493 Yeah, I want to set this next question up because 0:17:32.533 --> 0:17:35.173 I don't want to leave it, because I'm keen to 0:17:35.213 --> 0:17:38.613 hear what you have to say, I'm talking about Couyong. 0:17:39.773 --> 0:17:42.773 You drew our attention to Cou Young yourself a couple 0:17:42.813 --> 0:17:47.773 of weeks back. But Monique Ryan, who is a doctor 0:17:47.853 --> 0:17:51.853 of something to do with brains or things, what is it? 0:17:52.533 --> 0:17:54.573 I don't really know. I just know that her staff 0:17:56.053 --> 0:17:59.173 tell all the volunteers you must refer to as Dr Ryan. 0:17:59.373 --> 0:18:02.493 It's quite pompous. You know, that's her very much so. 0:18:03.093 --> 0:18:07.853 Having seen her behaving in an unsatisfactory way, I put 0:18:07.893 --> 0:18:12.333 it on someone's interviewing it. On Saturday night, she assumed 0:18:12.333 --> 0:18:16.053 that she'd won the seat again and partied. Now she's 0:18:16.093 --> 0:18:19.413 had to back off that and admit that it's too 0:18:19.413 --> 0:18:22.613 close to coll Well, we should we should locate this 0:18:22.973 --> 0:18:26.533 in time. So we're recording this on Tuesday, I think, 0:18:26.653 --> 0:18:31.693 and three three days after the election. Now, the processing 0:18:31.733 --> 0:18:34.733 of postal votes is the main thing that's going on now, 0:18:35.453 --> 0:18:40.093 and postal votes are moving very heavily in favor of 0:18:40.613 --> 0:18:44.773 the liberal candidate there, Amelia Hamer, by more than two 0:18:44.773 --> 0:18:46.733 to one. I've just looked at them just before we 0:18:47.413 --> 0:18:52.493 cooked up, so on that trajectory, Amelia Hamer is now 0:18:52.533 --> 0:18:54.613 in the in the front seat. Even though there's I 0:18:54.613 --> 0:18:57.533 think about nine hundred votes separating them. She can she 0:18:57.613 --> 0:18:59.573 can clear that up on postals, so it could be 0:18:59.973 --> 0:19:03.653 a narrow Liberal victory, which would be a big thing, 0:19:03.773 --> 0:19:05.973 you know, because you've got these independence came in a 0:19:06.213 --> 0:19:09.933 one term ago so called community independence. But we know 0:19:09.973 --> 0:19:13.333 that they're heavily backed by the renewable energy industry and 0:19:13.853 --> 0:19:19.853 quite sophisticated, well organized American style operation behind them. So 0:19:20.293 --> 0:19:23.733 but people have clonly seen through that in that seat, 0:19:24.453 --> 0:19:26.373 they may even have seen through in the Seed of 0:19:26.413 --> 0:19:29.893 gold Steam, which is another Melbourne seat where the former 0:19:29.933 --> 0:19:34.253 member Liberal member Tim Wilson is is only ninety one 0:19:34.293 --> 0:19:38.453 seats behind, now ninety one boats behind and postals, I 0:19:38.493 --> 0:19:41.213 think about a lot of them to count. Yet he 0:19:41.253 --> 0:19:43.533 would win if those postals continue to go his way. 0:19:43.613 --> 0:19:46.493 So that's two Teals they've knocked off. On the other 0:19:46.573 --> 0:19:49.933 side of it, well, there is another Teal candidate as 0:19:49.973 --> 0:19:51.933 we call them, looks like they're going to win the 0:19:51.933 --> 0:19:54.933 Seed of Bradfield and the north Shore of Sydney, and 0:19:55.133 --> 0:19:59.893 one teal Ish sort of e candiac. You know, they 0:19:59.893 --> 0:20:03.373 all have loose relationship with one another, but they're certainly 0:20:03.813 --> 0:20:07.093 organized and funded by the same sources. There's one in 0:20:07.573 --> 0:20:11.013 camera will fall to a Teal independent or a till 0:20:11.093 --> 0:20:14.413 style independent, and the seed of fremantle in Western Australia 0:20:14.453 --> 0:20:16.493 looks like it might go from Labor to Teal. So 0:20:17.093 --> 0:20:19.933 they may increase their numbers in the chamber up to seven. 0:20:20.013 --> 0:20:23.853 But the way that Parliament is with a thumping Labor majority, 0:20:23.933 --> 0:20:26.013 they'll just be irrelevant, you know, they'll just be sort 0:20:26.013 --> 0:20:30.333 of sitting there, biding their time and looking all perse 0:20:30.413 --> 0:20:34.933 lipped and angry and behaving the way they do. What 0:20:35.173 --> 0:20:39.133 is it about those tials that makes me think of 0:20:39.173 --> 0:20:42.213 them in very negative terms? 0:20:44.213 --> 0:20:49.973 Well, I think it's more about you, your good judgment there. Look, 0:20:50.293 --> 0:20:54.093 there's the best way I can describe it is it's 0:20:54.133 --> 0:20:59.613 like a cult like phenomena, and they actually operate with 0:20:59.813 --> 0:21:03.933 sort of cult like principles. So they'll get a band 0:21:03.933 --> 0:21:06.373 of supporters together. They'll often start by saying, you know, 0:21:07.053 --> 0:21:10.573 you would you like to seependent representing your community, then 0:21:10.613 --> 0:21:12.533 come to this meeting, and then they'll build that up 0:21:12.573 --> 0:21:14.813 and they'll say bring more followers, and they've got sort 0:21:14.853 --> 0:21:17.413 of like ritual chants where they have to say all 0:21:17.453 --> 0:21:19.933 these things and everybody gets worked up and excited. It's 0:21:20.053 --> 0:21:23.213 very much like you know, a cult of some sort 0:21:23.213 --> 0:21:27.333 of weird I don't know, Pentecostal style cult. And I 0:21:27.373 --> 0:21:30.493 think that that analogy holds true because you can see 0:21:30.493 --> 0:21:35.813 how people remain wedded to these candidates even when their 0:21:35.853 --> 0:21:38.453 flaws are exposed, even if they've done a turning government 0:21:38.493 --> 0:21:42.013 and it's quite apparent that they haven't done anything helpful, 0:21:42.053 --> 0:21:44.613 and they voted seventy percent or more of the time 0:21:45.053 --> 0:21:47.733 on the same side as the Greens. You sort to 0:21:47.733 --> 0:21:50.053 go where they claim to be just a nicer shade 0:21:50.093 --> 0:21:52.933 of liberal kind of falls away very quickly, but they're there. 0:21:53.893 --> 0:21:55.653 And the other thing I think I'd say about them 0:21:55.733 --> 0:21:59.573 is that it's a little bit of a misjudgment to 0:21:59.613 --> 0:22:02.653 say that they are liberal voters on strike, as some 0:22:02.773 --> 0:22:04.693 try and say, I mean, some try and compare them 0:22:04.693 --> 0:22:07.853 with the DLP, which, you know, the breakaway movement from 0:22:07.893 --> 0:22:12.133 the Labor Party in the fifties, which damage but most 0:22:12.173 --> 0:22:15.373 of the DLP members were former Labor members in this case, 0:22:15.413 --> 0:22:17.933 probably about twenty twenty five percent of them, the former 0:22:18.013 --> 0:22:21.773 liberal members. The rest are labor people voting tactically and 0:22:22.213 --> 0:22:26.133 Green's voters who are voting tactically, so they are to 0:22:26.133 --> 0:22:28.613 all intents and purposes are just another shade of green. 0:22:29.333 --> 0:22:33.093 So moniy Ryan, would she be a standout for what 0:22:33.133 --> 0:22:37.373 you've just described, Yeah, she's They're all that way. 0:22:37.453 --> 0:22:42.333 Really, they're you know, for so called independence, representing separate communities. 0:22:42.413 --> 0:22:45.573 They are remarkably similar in their voting pattern and views 0:22:45.653 --> 0:22:49.333 on things like say, nuclear power, to which they're staunchly opposed. 0:22:49.893 --> 0:22:53.293 They all want more action on climate change. Well, they're 0:22:53.293 --> 0:22:56.093 in the lucky position of never having to say what 0:22:56.133 --> 0:22:59.813 that more is because you know, as we're seeing in 0:22:59.853 --> 0:23:02.533 places like Splain in Portugal, you know, you get to 0:23:02.573 --> 0:23:04.933 a point where you go more, we can't do more. 0:23:05.173 --> 0:23:07.613 You know, there's no more we can do when it 0:23:07.613 --> 0:23:11.093 comes to the energy system. So yeah, they're in that 0:23:11.133 --> 0:23:13.813 privileged position. I think we might have said this last 0:23:13.813 --> 0:23:16.693 time about them, but they sort of conformed to that 0:23:17.573 --> 0:23:20.653 theory of luxury beliefs. You know, the more the more 0:23:20.693 --> 0:23:24.653 wealthy you've got, then the more you've got time to 0:23:24.733 --> 0:23:28.733 worry about things that don't worry most people, like climate 0:23:28.813 --> 0:23:32.213 change being the big one, or transgender rights. And I 0:23:32.213 --> 0:23:34.853 actually saw some polling in the Seed of Wentworth, which 0:23:34.893 --> 0:23:39.133 is held held by a TiAl candidate, that showed that 0:23:39.293 --> 0:23:45.213 if on the top three issues. Cost of living was 0:23:45.293 --> 0:23:49.293 number three. Now, anywhere else in the country apart from 0:23:49.413 --> 0:23:53.053 those wealthiest inner city seats, I guarantee you it would 0:23:53.053 --> 0:23:55.533 be number one, two, three, four, five. You know, it 0:23:55.573 --> 0:23:58.613 goes on and on. They weren't concerned about energy prices, 0:23:58.693 --> 0:24:01.053 petrol prices, anything like that, you know, the sort of 0:24:01.093 --> 0:24:05.293 things that affect people on lower incomes in other parts 0:24:05.333 --> 0:24:05.893 of the country. 0:24:06.493 --> 0:24:09.453 Well, for those who don't know, went Eth in Sydney 0:24:10.453 --> 0:24:15.093 it's along the along the harves side, specifically, it is 0:24:15.493 --> 0:24:21.933 it would equate to Remuera in Auckland without the well 0:24:22.933 --> 0:24:28.613 Remure has a southern side to it, down along the motorway. 0:24:28.693 --> 0:24:32.973 But take that away and you've got You've got Wentworth 0:24:33.093 --> 0:24:36.693