1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Twelve minutes after five, the big world news is the 2 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:08,119 Speaker 1: possibility a peace in the Ukraine. US President Donald Trump 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: says he intends to negotiate an end to the war 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: in Ukraine talking to Vladimir Putin, possibly in Saudi Arabia. 5 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 1: It sounds like any peace deal, he hammers out, won't 6 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: be very favorable to Ukraine. He's talking about landswaps. US 7 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Defense Secretary Pete Higseth says a return to twenty fourteen 8 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: but borders unlikely. And you know what, President Trump agrees. 9 00:00:27,760 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: They took a lot of land, and they fought for 10 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: that land, and they lost a lot of they lost 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: a lot of soldiers. But it would just seem to me. 12 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,639 Speaker 2: And I'm not making an opinion on it, but I've 13 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: read a lot on it, and a lot of people 14 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: think that that's unlikely. Some of it will come back. 15 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 2: I think some of it will come back. 16 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. 17 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: So, Sasha dov Buckman is a professor of international law 18 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:53,599 Speaker 1: and security at Cambridge University, and he joins me, Now, Hello, Sasha. 19 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 3: Hello Andrew, nice talking to you. 20 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: So was this for real or is he caving into Putin? 21 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: Or is this actually what has to happen? 22 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,919 Speaker 3: I think it's for real. It's what a Trump prior 23 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 3: to the elections are. During the last months of the election, 24 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: actually flaunted as a so called Trump peace plan. So 25 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 3: he was committed. He actually was boasting about it twenty 26 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 3: four hours and he will sort it out. He gave 27 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 3: a couple of reasons. But what we have to go 28 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 3: in old fairness, we have to say he actually with 29 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 3: General Kellogg, he assembled a team to look into it 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 3: in more detail, and there were also discussions with President Zelenski. 31 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 3: So it's no surprise that this is happening now. But 32 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 3: the problem obviously is how was it communicated and also 33 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 3: what exactly did the Secretary of Defense Hexit actually say yes. 34 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: And the problem with it is that the US has 35 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: no intention to play any role in enforcing any peace, 36 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: in enforcing any ceasefire, and the Europeans are saying, well, 37 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: we need some help here. Then you're not going to 38 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: be there. How can we enforce it? Isn't that a problem? 39 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 3: I think it's a major problem. The thing is it 40 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 3: was always left a little bit open. But if you 41 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: look at the proposals that were basically discussion around the 42 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 3: beginning of November, it was number one territorial concessions that 43 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 3: means freezing along the conflict lines, the line of contact, 44 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 3: as you would say. And then for example, later negotiations, 45 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 3: that was something where even Ukrainians and the Ukraine president 46 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 3: actually for the time being was you can say, amicable too. 47 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 3: The next thing was, and that is the most important thing, 48 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 3: it was NATO membership. You know that Ukraine for seventeen 49 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 3: years has been basically on that pathway to NATO membership. 50 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 3: And there were discussions and that came from the Trump camp. 51 00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 3: There might be, for example, the possibility of a moratorium 52 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 3: to freeze, for example, any further discussions for about twenty years. 53 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 3: But the one thing that really strikes me here is 54 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,120 Speaker 3: that back then there was a discussion that, for example, 55 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 3: use US troops without for example, you can say not 56 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 3: acting under NATO authority, hence not protected under NATO Article 57 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 3: five for example assist and that if I listen to 58 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 3: a Secretary of Defense heck said, he has basically made 59 00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 3: a statement which actually rules that out. And that is 60 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 3: what is very boriusome. No NATO membership and also no 61 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: basically NATO troops that includes US troops. 62 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: And one last question, if Russia takes more territory. Now 63 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: putin will paint that as a win. Could they then 64 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: use that as a springboard to have another crack in 65 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: the future. 66 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 3: Absolutely, for me Trump to zero, that plan here can 67 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 3: turn into a Munich agreement to zero. And Trump gives 68 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 3: actually put in open, you can say, carte blanche to 69 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 3: sell that to his population as a win. And that 70 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 3: is the dangerous thing. That is the first step in 71 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 3: the wrong direction. 72 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: Sasia, I thank you for your time today. That is 73 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: Sasha dove Backman and he's talking to us from camera. 74 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 3: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive listen live to 75 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 76 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 3: a podcast on iHeartRadio.