1 00:00:19,059 --> 00:00:22,099 Speaker 1: Kyota at Chelsea Daniels here, host of the Front Page. 2 00:00:22,379 --> 00:00:25,259 Speaker 1: We're taking awek breakover summer, but to help build the gap, 3 00:00:25,579 --> 00:00:28,699 Speaker 1: we're re issuing some of our most significant episodes of 4 00:00:28,739 --> 00:00:32,019 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five on behalf of the Front Page team. 5 00:00:32,138 --> 00:00:34,619 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening and we look forward to being back 6 00:00:34,659 --> 00:00:44,298 Speaker 1: with you on January twelfth, twenty twenty six. Kyota, I'm 7 00:00:44,379 --> 00:00:47,818 Speaker 1: Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a daily 8 00:00:47,939 --> 00:00:54,899 Speaker 1: podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The Coalition government 9 00:00:54,979 --> 00:01:00,259 Speaker 1: has unveiled its second budget. Over twenty billion dollars in 10 00:01:00,379 --> 00:01:03,459 Speaker 1: savings has been found over the next four years, more 11 00:01:03,499 --> 00:01:07,899 Speaker 1: than half from the controversial changes to our pay equity scheme. 12 00:01:08,139 --> 00:01:12,259 Speaker 1: There are changes to keyw saver contributions, means testing for 13 00:01:12,339 --> 00:01:17,339 Speaker 1: support for parents, and a major new tax incentive for businesses. 14 00:01:17,499 --> 00:01:20,459 Speaker 1: Finance Minister Nikola Willis has said that it is a 15 00:01:20,579 --> 00:01:24,978 Speaker 1: responsible budget, while Labor has called it an austerity budget 16 00:01:25,059 --> 00:01:28,219 Speaker 1: that leaves women out and is stealing from our kids. 17 00:01:28,378 --> 00:01:29,979 Speaker 2: To break down what all. 18 00:01:29,818 --> 00:01:32,419 Speaker 1: Of this means for you today on the Front Page, 19 00:01:32,459 --> 00:01:35,859 Speaker 1: we're joined by Enzid Herald Business Editor at Large Liam 20 00:01:35,938 --> 00:01:42,659 Speaker 1: dan So. Nikola Willis has called this a growth budget. 21 00:01:42,859 --> 00:01:46,338 Speaker 1: Labour's gone with austerity. If you had to pick a 22 00:01:46,538 --> 00:01:49,979 Speaker 1: pithy one word descriptive of this budget, Liam, what would 23 00:01:50,019 --> 00:01:50,418 Speaker 1: you go with? 24 00:01:50,538 --> 00:01:53,898 Speaker 3: Oh, good question, sort of a tightrope balancing act something 25 00:01:53,939 --> 00:01:56,178 Speaker 3: like that. It's a little bit of austerity and a 26 00:01:56,179 --> 00:01:58,819 Speaker 3: little bit of growth, some big cuts to some things, 27 00:01:58,979 --> 00:02:01,659 Speaker 3: and there's a big roll of the dice, for example, 28 00:02:01,859 --> 00:02:04,339 Speaker 3: in terms of hoping that business is going to really 29 00:02:04,339 --> 00:02:07,099 Speaker 3: grab this tax cut and invest for growth. So that's 30 00:02:07,099 --> 00:02:09,459 Speaker 3: probably it's probably where they really rolled the dice big 31 00:02:09,779 --> 00:02:11,499 Speaker 3: on that one. You know, I was wondering where's the 32 00:02:11,499 --> 00:02:13,659 Speaker 3: growth coming from. They still had growth budget at the 33 00:02:13,699 --> 00:02:15,859 Speaker 3: top of all the press releases, but you know, six 34 00:02:16,019 --> 00:02:18,779 Speaker 3: six billion, six point four billion over four years. It's 35 00:02:18,979 --> 00:02:21,099 Speaker 3: it's a significant break, especially if you think of a 36 00:02:21,099 --> 00:02:24,899 Speaker 3: small business someone who's having to upgrade all their tools 37 00:02:24,939 --> 00:02:26,899 Speaker 3: and you know, their transport and all that sort of 38 00:02:26,939 --> 00:02:29,259 Speaker 3: stuff every five years or so. To get a twenty 39 00:02:29,299 --> 00:02:31,939 Speaker 3: percent break when they do that, it could be quite 40 00:02:31,939 --> 00:02:33,659 Speaker 3: a substantial amount of money for them. So it's an 41 00:02:33,698 --> 00:02:36,899 Speaker 3: incentive to upgrade all the equipment earlier, you know, and 42 00:02:36,939 --> 00:02:40,578 Speaker 3: make themselves more efficient and drive some productivity, which we're 43 00:02:40,578 --> 00:02:43,459 Speaker 3: always talking about. So that's the idea. The theory is 44 00:02:43,459 --> 00:02:45,538 Speaker 3: that that will mean the businesses will invest more in 45 00:02:46,138 --> 00:02:49,538 Speaker 3: up to date technology, latest equipment, and they'll be more 46 00:02:49,538 --> 00:02:52,579 Speaker 3: efficient and workers will be more productive and the economy 47 00:02:52,619 --> 00:02:54,499 Speaker 3: will benefit because of that. 48 00:02:54,659 --> 00:02:57,019 Speaker 1: The key we saver changes are one of the big 49 00:02:57,138 --> 00:03:00,499 Speaker 1: changes here. Hey, tax payers will now get two hundred 50 00:03:00,499 --> 00:03:03,698 Speaker 1: and sixty dollars and seventy two cents from the government, 51 00:03:03,819 --> 00:03:07,659 Speaker 1: down from five hundred and twenty one. In return, employees 52 00:03:07,739 --> 00:03:12,338 Speaker 1: and employers default contribution will rise to four percent from 53 00:03:12,379 --> 00:03:15,059 Speaker 1: three percent, which is being phased in over the next 54 00:03:15,099 --> 00:03:18,739 Speaker 1: three years. What sort of impact could that change have. 55 00:03:19,059 --> 00:03:21,939 Speaker 3: Yeah, so the net outcome is that people would save 56 00:03:22,099 --> 00:03:24,659 Speaker 3: more over the period of time. I mean the risk 57 00:03:24,739 --> 00:03:27,698 Speaker 3: with cutting that tax break is so it's been cut 58 00:03:27,739 --> 00:03:30,018 Speaker 3: by half, so you know, it was five hundred dollars 59 00:03:30,059 --> 00:03:33,379 Speaker 3: a year. You can say, well, you've lost two hundred 60 00:03:33,379 --> 00:03:35,619 Speaker 3: dollars a year, but you compound that over twenty years 61 00:03:35,619 --> 00:03:37,179 Speaker 3: and you can do some maths and say that that's 62 00:03:37,179 --> 00:03:40,499 Speaker 3: actually potentially taking you know, twenty thousand or whatever out 63 00:03:40,539 --> 00:03:43,579 Speaker 3: of people's long term retirement savings. But that is more 64 00:03:43,579 --> 00:03:47,339 Speaker 3: than compensated for by the increase to the contributions which 65 00:03:47,379 --> 00:03:50,699 Speaker 3: will come out of the employee's pocket and the employer's pocket. 66 00:03:50,739 --> 00:03:52,939 Speaker 3: But hopefully, you know, half a percent at a time 67 00:03:53,419 --> 00:03:55,579 Speaker 3: won't be too onerous. It's sort of a step in 68 00:03:55,619 --> 00:03:58,819 Speaker 3: the right direction in terms of lifting those investment rates. 69 00:03:58,899 --> 00:04:01,179 Speaker 3: In Australia, they're up to twelve percent or something. 70 00:04:01,219 --> 00:04:03,299 Speaker 1: For thirteen Now, yeah, man, and. 71 00:04:03,259 --> 00:04:05,699 Speaker 3: Obviously that would sound horrendous to suddenly take an extra 72 00:04:05,859 --> 00:04:07,819 Speaker 3: nine or ten percent out of your pay and for 73 00:04:07,819 --> 00:04:09,899 Speaker 3: employers to have to pay that. But if you if 74 00:04:09,939 --> 00:04:12,059 Speaker 3: you step your way there, gradually you know they've got 75 00:04:12,059 --> 00:04:15,219 Speaker 3: four trillion dollars in their superannuation scheme. And we look 76 00:04:15,219 --> 00:04:17,339 Speaker 3: across the tessman and say, why are they richer than us? Well, 77 00:04:17,379 --> 00:04:19,178 Speaker 3: it was because they've saved the money and they've they've 78 00:04:19,219 --> 00:04:20,058 Speaker 3: got all this money. 79 00:04:22,699 --> 00:04:24,819 Speaker 1: This is not austerity. 80 00:04:25,419 --> 00:04:30,459 Speaker 4: In fact, it is what you do to avoid austerity 81 00:04:31,859 --> 00:04:37,299 Speaker 4: because getting the books in shape ensures New Zealand has 82 00:04:37,339 --> 00:04:40,299 Speaker 4: financial security and choices. 83 00:04:39,779 --> 00:04:40,659 Speaker 1: Into the future. 84 00:04:41,099 --> 00:04:43,299 Speaker 4: That's right, And as I am about to set out, 85 00:04:43,899 --> 00:04:47,738 Speaker 4: savings in this budget have allowed us to make much 86 00:04:48,019 --> 00:04:53,219 Speaker 4: needed investments in health and education, law and order and 87 00:04:53,259 --> 00:04:54,899 Speaker 4: rebuilding our defense force. 88 00:04:55,099 --> 00:05:03,099 Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, New Zealanders are notoriously bad savers and kei 89 00:05:03,179 --> 00:05:06,019 Speaker 1: we savor for a lot of us is our main investments. 90 00:05:06,139 --> 00:05:09,178 Speaker 1: So is this government telling people to pull their bootstraps 91 00:05:09,259 --> 00:05:10,739 Speaker 1: up and put some more effid in. 92 00:05:11,099 --> 00:05:13,459 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess a little bit. You know, it's it's 93 00:05:13,499 --> 00:05:14,859 Speaker 3: a bit of that. I mean, there's there's a bit 94 00:05:14,899 --> 00:05:17,859 Speaker 3: of that all through this budget. It's definitely nature to 95 00:05:18,459 --> 00:05:21,419 Speaker 3: Wellington Business editor said it called it the true blue budget. 96 00:05:21,539 --> 00:05:25,579 Speaker 3: Is it is very much some ideological or political decisions. 97 00:05:25,579 --> 00:05:27,699 Speaker 3: They are like no more dolls for the eighteen to 98 00:05:27,779 --> 00:05:30,699 Speaker 3: nineteen year olds. Parents have to look after them or 99 00:05:30,739 --> 00:05:32,499 Speaker 3: they have to have to go back to study. If 100 00:05:32,499 --> 00:05:34,259 Speaker 3: you can't get a job, you've got to be studying 101 00:05:34,339 --> 00:05:37,459 Speaker 3: otherwise you're in You're still responsibility of their parents to 102 00:05:37,499 --> 00:05:39,819 Speaker 3: pay for That was quite a big change. 103 00:05:39,819 --> 00:05:42,099 Speaker 1: If I was short sighted as well, because I mean 104 00:05:42,419 --> 00:05:45,779 Speaker 1: going to UNI for some people immediately out of school 105 00:05:45,819 --> 00:05:48,459 Speaker 1: that it isn't an option for some people or in 106 00:05:48,539 --> 00:05:50,099 Speaker 1: some people's minds it isn't. 107 00:05:50,539 --> 00:05:52,939 Speaker 3: No, I guess you know, there are other things you 108 00:05:52,939 --> 00:05:56,219 Speaker 3: could be looking for apprenticeships or looking for more vocational 109 00:05:56,299 --> 00:05:58,019 Speaker 3: training and things, but you know they have to make 110 00:05:58,059 --> 00:05:59,219 Speaker 3: sure the pathways are there. 111 00:05:59,259 --> 00:05:59,699 Speaker 1: To do that. 112 00:05:59,819 --> 00:06:02,579 Speaker 3: My concern would be for some of those communities where 113 00:06:02,659 --> 00:06:05,179 Speaker 3: unemployment is endemic and mum and dad are unemployed. But 114 00:06:05,579 --> 00:06:07,259 Speaker 3: I can see you know that that true blue bit 115 00:06:07,379 --> 00:06:09,979 Speaker 3: is that. I guess that from the right wing political perspective, 116 00:06:09,979 --> 00:06:12,459 Speaker 3: it's to try and push people to get motivated and 117 00:06:12,499 --> 00:06:14,419 Speaker 3: go and look after themselves. But it could be quite 118 00:06:14,419 --> 00:06:16,419 Speaker 3: a shock in the short term for some people. 119 00:06:16,579 --> 00:06:19,819 Speaker 1: The investment boost tax is a one as well. You 120 00:06:19,899 --> 00:06:23,259 Speaker 1: mentioned it before. Business is allowed to deduct twenty percent 121 00:06:23,339 --> 00:06:26,419 Speaker 1: of the cost of new assets immediately from their tax 122 00:06:26,459 --> 00:06:29,899 Speaker 1: will income on top of normal depreciation. Essentially, this means 123 00:06:29,939 --> 00:06:32,659 Speaker 1: a lower tax bill and it's believed that over twenty 124 00:06:32,739 --> 00:06:35,579 Speaker 1: years this could increase the level of GDP by one 125 00:06:35,699 --> 00:06:39,859 Speaker 1: percent and wages by one point five percent. How big 126 00:06:39,899 --> 00:06:43,539 Speaker 1: of a deal is this change, given how long term 127 00:06:43,699 --> 00:06:44,859 Speaker 1: those benefits are. 128 00:06:45,059 --> 00:06:47,259 Speaker 3: I was just talking with an economist, Christina Long from 129 00:06:47,339 --> 00:06:49,419 Speaker 3: enzi Are, and she wasn't that impressed with it, like 130 00:06:49,459 --> 00:06:52,219 Speaker 3: in terms of the overall transformative nature of it, But 131 00:06:52,379 --> 00:06:55,619 Speaker 3: I think it is. It's sort of a move in 132 00:06:55,659 --> 00:06:58,939 Speaker 3: the right direction to try and lift the productivity of 133 00:06:59,259 --> 00:07:02,059 Speaker 3: New Zealand. So we have this reputation for being having 134 00:07:02,059 --> 00:07:04,739 Speaker 3: a low productivity rate in the country in this country, 135 00:07:05,099 --> 00:07:08,059 Speaker 3: and there are many reasons, but one of the reasons 136 00:07:08,059 --> 00:07:10,499 Speaker 3: that it has been identified is that we just don't 137 00:07:10,539 --> 00:07:15,659 Speaker 3: invest to the same level in the latest technology, new equipment, 138 00:07:16,059 --> 00:07:18,619 Speaker 3: the stuff that makes each worker be able to generate 139 00:07:18,619 --> 00:07:20,619 Speaker 3: more output. You know, if you go to Germany then 140 00:07:20,659 --> 00:07:23,779 Speaker 3: it's all robotic factories and all that sort of stuff. 141 00:07:23,859 --> 00:07:28,019 Speaker 3: And so anything that incentivizes businesses to invest, it should 142 00:07:28,059 --> 00:07:31,539 Speaker 3: incentivize them perhaps to take a risk, expand a bit more. 143 00:07:31,659 --> 00:07:33,339 Speaker 3: That's what they want, that's what they talk about when 144 00:07:33,339 --> 00:07:35,859 Speaker 3: they say going for growth. It will be interesting to 145 00:07:35,859 --> 00:07:38,859 Speaker 3: see because that you know, employees and Manufacturers Association, Business 146 00:07:38,979 --> 00:07:41,379 Speaker 3: end Z, they've been lobbying for this for a long time. 147 00:07:41,459 --> 00:07:43,579 Speaker 3: They've finally got it. I think businesses will kind of 148 00:07:43,579 --> 00:07:45,139 Speaker 3: have to put their money where their mouth is now 149 00:07:45,139 --> 00:07:46,739 Speaker 3: and get out there and do it. You'd hope, and 150 00:07:46,979 --> 00:07:49,579 Speaker 3: you'd hope that it has some payoff it. It's also 151 00:07:50,019 --> 00:07:51,939 Speaker 3: going to be you're going to get that twenty percent 152 00:07:51,979 --> 00:07:54,459 Speaker 3: break on your new buying a new forklift. Anyway where 153 00:07:54,499 --> 00:07:56,059 Speaker 3: you get a twenty percent break on it, that is 154 00:07:56,139 --> 00:07:59,259 Speaker 3: kind of a stimulus. So that's where people say this 155 00:07:59,299 --> 00:08:02,139 Speaker 3: is an austerity budget or not, arguing that that this 156 00:08:02,219 --> 00:08:04,059 Speaker 3: is a little bit of stimulus into the economy. So 157 00:08:04,339 --> 00:08:07,179 Speaker 3: you know, one point whatever billion a year over four years. 158 00:08:07,299 --> 00:08:09,739 Speaker 1: Well, basically the people who are holding off buying that 159 00:08:09,859 --> 00:08:12,499 Speaker 1: forklift now have an incentive to do so more so 160 00:08:12,659 --> 00:08:13,299 Speaker 1: than before. 161 00:08:13,539 --> 00:08:15,819 Speaker 3: Yeah, and the true blue bit, the sort of the 162 00:08:15,899 --> 00:08:18,379 Speaker 3: right leaning bit is saying, well, the stimulatory part, the 163 00:08:18,379 --> 00:08:20,059 Speaker 3: bit where we putting a bit a bit cash back 164 00:08:20,099 --> 00:08:22,619 Speaker 3: into the economy. You could put it in the pockets 165 00:08:22,659 --> 00:08:25,539 Speaker 3: of consumers. Consumers might go out and just spend a 166 00:08:25,579 --> 00:08:27,579 Speaker 3: little bit, They might drink and eat a little bit more, 167 00:08:27,619 --> 00:08:29,499 Speaker 3: which is, you know, maybe good for the short term 168 00:08:29,619 --> 00:08:31,699 Speaker 3: health of the economy and hospitality. But if you give 169 00:08:31,739 --> 00:08:34,779 Speaker 3: it to the businesses and they invest in the machinery 170 00:08:34,419 --> 00:08:37,979 Speaker 3: of the economy the business world, you know, that's a 171 00:08:38,059 --> 00:08:40,858 Speaker 3: positive long term that means that they ultimately should be 172 00:08:40,939 --> 00:08:44,059 Speaker 3: able to grow bigger, make more money, employ more people. 173 00:08:44,659 --> 00:08:46,578 Speaker 3: You've got to believe, I mean, I'm trying to be 174 00:08:46,619 --> 00:08:49,019 Speaker 3: a political here. You've got to believe that business and 175 00:08:49,659 --> 00:08:51,618 Speaker 3: capitalism is going to do the job for you to 176 00:08:52,458 --> 00:08:55,378 Speaker 3: back this, and obviously this government very clearly does. 177 00:09:04,458 --> 00:09:04,539 Speaker 5: So. 178 00:09:04,578 --> 00:09:07,619 Speaker 1: I reckon means testing is one of the themes of 179 00:09:07,659 --> 00:09:11,098 Speaker 1: this budget. Hey, government, can we save a contributions are 180 00:09:11,139 --> 00:09:13,098 Speaker 1: now going to stop if you earn one hundred and 181 00:09:13,139 --> 00:09:16,338 Speaker 1: eighty thousand dollars a year or more and for the 182 00:09:16,379 --> 00:09:20,258 Speaker 1: best start tax credits that will become income tested. So 183 00:09:20,299 --> 00:09:23,699 Speaker 1: starting at families on seventy nine thousand dollars a year, 184 00:09:23,899 --> 00:09:25,539 Speaker 1: is that a smart move from the government. 185 00:09:25,699 --> 00:09:29,019 Speaker 3: Well, I mean some people argue that it's difficult and complex. 186 00:09:29,059 --> 00:09:31,098 Speaker 3: You know, you're adding another layer of complexity to have 187 00:09:31,098 --> 00:09:33,259 Speaker 3: to means test everything. I guess it seems like a 188 00:09:33,299 --> 00:09:35,618 Speaker 3: really a fairly generous bar one hundred and eighty thousand 189 00:09:35,738 --> 00:09:38,419 Speaker 3: when you're talking about five hundred dollars here or there. 190 00:09:38,539 --> 00:09:40,939 Speaker 3: You know, I think if you could afford to top 191 00:09:41,019 --> 00:09:42,939 Speaker 3: up your own key, we savior to some extent of it. 192 00:09:43,299 --> 00:09:43,939 Speaker 3: That's the case. 193 00:09:44,299 --> 00:09:47,018 Speaker 2: Rich people like getting more money, though. 194 00:09:47,498 --> 00:09:50,458 Speaker 3: Everyone likes getting more money. Yeah, I wonder. I mean, 195 00:09:50,498 --> 00:09:53,098 Speaker 3: it's interesting because they might get a bit better at 196 00:09:53,578 --> 00:09:56,499 Speaker 3: you know, the machinery of means testing. And you know 197 00:09:56,498 --> 00:09:57,218 Speaker 3: where does that lead? 198 00:09:57,299 --> 00:09:57,419 Speaker 6: Well? 199 00:09:57,498 --> 00:10:00,299 Speaker 3: Maybe maybe you know that they've talked about whether we 200 00:10:00,299 --> 00:10:04,819 Speaker 3: should be means testing superannuation, so that if you're actually 201 00:10:05,059 --> 00:10:08,059 Speaker 3: still learning while you're getting the retirement pension. You could 202 00:10:08,098 --> 00:10:10,779 Speaker 3: be means tested, and that's considered quite difficult to do well. 203 00:10:10,819 --> 00:10:13,218 Speaker 3: Perhaps if for governments some getting better at means testing 204 00:10:13,419 --> 00:10:16,299 Speaker 3: because they're doing it for some other things, it becomes 205 00:10:16,338 --> 00:10:18,779 Speaker 3: part and parcel of what they do. But yeah, they 206 00:10:18,779 --> 00:10:21,498 Speaker 3: mean test already for student allowances and things like that, 207 00:10:21,539 --> 00:10:24,539 Speaker 3: So I guess there is mechanisms in place. 208 00:10:24,819 --> 00:10:25,059 Speaker 6: Yeah. 209 00:10:25,098 --> 00:10:28,259 Speaker 3: I mean it's all about clawing back a little bit 210 00:10:28,259 --> 00:10:29,659 Speaker 3: of money here and there, isn't it. I mean that's 211 00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:34,218 Speaker 3: what the finance ministers had to do. They've clawed back 212 00:10:34,259 --> 00:10:37,898 Speaker 3: a large chunk from the pay equity sort of reversal, 213 00:10:38,699 --> 00:10:41,258 Speaker 3: and then they're clrawing back bits and pieces everywhere else 214 00:10:41,299 --> 00:10:43,138 Speaker 3: to get a few billion here and a few billion. 215 00:10:42,819 --> 00:10:45,578 Speaker 1: There seventy nine thousand dollars a year for a family. 216 00:10:45,618 --> 00:10:46,899 Speaker 1: Though that's quite low, isn't it. 217 00:10:47,179 --> 00:10:47,459 Speaker 6: It is? 218 00:10:47,539 --> 00:10:50,098 Speaker 3: The argument is with a real right when government would 219 00:10:50,098 --> 00:10:52,419 Speaker 3: even want that benefit there in the first place. So 220 00:10:52,779 --> 00:10:54,899 Speaker 3: they've put a means test in so it's really just 221 00:10:54,939 --> 00:10:57,578 Speaker 3: the poorest people, I guess that are going to get it. 222 00:10:57,699 --> 00:11:00,578 Speaker 1: So last year's budget was all about putting more money 223 00:11:00,618 --> 00:11:03,739 Speaker 1: into our wallets with tax cuts and other savings. Is 224 00:11:03,779 --> 00:11:06,459 Speaker 1: there anything in this budget that looks like it will 225 00:11:06,498 --> 00:11:08,898 Speaker 1: help ease the cost of living? Or have we moved 226 00:11:08,939 --> 00:11:11,819 Speaker 1: on from that buzz term Now there's support for working 227 00:11:11,858 --> 00:11:14,659 Speaker 1: for families and supercar holders, but it doesn't feel like 228 00:11:15,139 --> 00:11:16,699 Speaker 1: a massive support budget. 229 00:11:16,819 --> 00:11:18,619 Speaker 3: No, this is not a support budget. And I don't 230 00:11:18,618 --> 00:11:20,978 Speaker 3: know you'd call it austerity or not. It's probably depends 231 00:11:20,978 --> 00:11:23,899 Speaker 3: on your political colors, but it's it's certainly from from 232 00:11:23,899 --> 00:11:25,779 Speaker 3: that point of view. You know, it was just that 233 00:11:25,858 --> 00:11:28,858 Speaker 3: tax break for business, which may be a little bit stimulatory, 234 00:11:28,899 --> 00:11:31,978 Speaker 3: but for ordinary consumers there isn't any stimulus. And and 235 00:11:32,498 --> 00:11:34,619 Speaker 3: I don't want to kickstart the inflation again. They don't 236 00:11:34,618 --> 00:11:36,659 Speaker 3: want to get back growing the economy just by putting 237 00:11:36,738 --> 00:11:39,059 Speaker 3: money into it, is what they're saying. Well, that's what 238 00:11:39,179 --> 00:11:41,498 Speaker 3: the last government did. We're not doing that. We need 239 00:11:41,498 --> 00:11:43,138 Speaker 3: it to come from the ground up, needs to come 240 00:11:43,179 --> 00:11:46,219 Speaker 3: from business and export earnings and all that sort of stuff. 241 00:11:46,259 --> 00:11:48,979 Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't think we expected much support for people. 242 00:11:49,179 --> 00:11:52,059 Speaker 3: I'm sure the government would argue that inflation is more 243 00:11:52,179 --> 00:11:54,738 Speaker 3: or less under control. I know right now everyone's panicking 244 00:11:54,738 --> 00:11:58,099 Speaker 3: about the price of butter and there's some cheese. Yeah, yeah, 245 00:11:58,218 --> 00:12:02,218 Speaker 3: don't forget cheese. But basically, you know, weirdly, when dairy 246 00:12:02,259 --> 00:12:04,219 Speaker 3: products are going through the roof like that, that's good 247 00:12:04,218 --> 00:12:06,779 Speaker 3: news for New Zealand. I mean, there's money coming into 248 00:12:06,779 --> 00:12:11,259 Speaker 3: the countries, and economists think that overall inflation will stay 249 00:12:11,618 --> 00:12:14,859 Speaker 3: relatively subdued. A few of those key commodity products that 250 00:12:14,899 --> 00:12:17,339 Speaker 3: are accepted, you know, that are having a bit of 251 00:12:17,338 --> 00:12:21,338 Speaker 3: a moment, but the core inflation economy, because of higher unemployment, 252 00:12:21,379 --> 00:12:24,259 Speaker 3: wages coming off, it's expected to stay pretty subdued. So 253 00:12:24,419 --> 00:12:26,659 Speaker 3: nobody's ever going to say, hey, the cost of living 254 00:12:26,699 --> 00:12:28,578 Speaker 3: is great, but it shouldn't be the same sort of 255 00:12:28,578 --> 00:12:31,458 Speaker 3: issue that it was. And I don't think national would 256 00:12:31,578 --> 00:12:34,819 Speaker 3: ideologically support the kind of just payments to people to 257 00:12:34,819 --> 00:12:36,538 Speaker 3: cope with it anyway, because they would argue that that 258 00:12:36,578 --> 00:12:38,539 Speaker 3: would just exacerbate the inflation. 259 00:12:38,699 --> 00:12:42,139 Speaker 1: Well, you mentioned the pay equity changes that's dominated the 260 00:12:42,139 --> 00:12:45,219 Speaker 1: political discourse for a few weeks. Now, now that we've 261 00:12:45,299 --> 00:12:50,258 Speaker 1: learned that nearly thirteen billion over four years has been saved, 262 00:12:50,419 --> 00:12:52,779 Speaker 1: is it a win for the government. So the average 263 00:12:52,819 --> 00:12:54,978 Speaker 1: person on the street, that's a pretty big number to 264 00:12:55,098 --> 00:12:55,939 Speaker 1: attach a saving. 265 00:12:55,978 --> 00:12:58,658 Speaker 3: Two Yeah, well, I mean, I guess, you know, it 266 00:12:58,659 --> 00:13:01,578 Speaker 3: has kind of opened up the budget for the government 267 00:13:01,738 --> 00:13:04,019 Speaker 3: to do the things they wanted to do, So, you know, 268 00:13:04,019 --> 00:13:06,458 Speaker 3: I think didn't David Seymour get in trouble for saying that. 269 00:13:06,738 --> 00:13:08,499 Speaker 1: Brook van Velden saved the budget. 270 00:13:08,738 --> 00:13:09,939 Speaker 3: Yeah, well it kind of has. 271 00:13:10,019 --> 00:13:10,179 Speaker 1: Right. 272 00:13:10,179 --> 00:13:11,899 Speaker 3: Whether it's a win for the government, well, we'll have 273 00:13:11,978 --> 00:13:13,659 Speaker 3: to wait and see, because I think it's going to 274 00:13:13,738 --> 00:13:16,099 Speaker 3: be a hot topic for a while to come, because 275 00:13:16,139 --> 00:13:19,419 Speaker 3: you know, just just at a superficial level politically, money 276 00:13:19,419 --> 00:13:23,379 Speaker 3: for businesses and it's coming out of the potential wage 277 00:13:23,419 --> 00:13:27,179 Speaker 3: increases that could have gone to some of the poorest workers, 278 00:13:27,498 --> 00:13:31,059 Speaker 3: female workers and female industries and often caring for the 279 00:13:31,098 --> 00:13:33,699 Speaker 3: most vulnerable people in society. So you've got a pretty 280 00:13:34,019 --> 00:13:37,019 Speaker 3: stark contrast there, and that's something for the opposition to 281 00:13:37,059 --> 00:13:39,059 Speaker 3: work with and say, hey, you know, why are we 282 00:13:39,098 --> 00:13:41,378 Speaker 3: giving this money to businesses. They're going to have to 283 00:13:41,419 --> 00:13:43,939 Speaker 3: really sell this kind of productivity argument and it's not 284 00:13:44,498 --> 00:13:47,019 Speaker 3: necessarily a simple, simple sales job. So I think the 285 00:13:47,059 --> 00:13:49,939 Speaker 3: government will still be up against it politically for a 286 00:13:49,939 --> 00:13:51,778 Speaker 3: few more weeks. I think they're hoping that it'll all 287 00:13:51,819 --> 00:13:53,578 Speaker 3: just roll on and that maybe by the time we 288 00:13:53,618 --> 00:13:56,059 Speaker 3: get to an election, but I've spoken to a few 289 00:13:56,098 --> 00:13:57,099 Speaker 3: women who think it might not. 290 00:14:00,379 --> 00:14:03,699 Speaker 5: This House has no confidence in the government because it 291 00:14:03,738 --> 00:14:06,539 Speaker 5: has chosen to pay for its budget by cutting the 292 00:14:06,578 --> 00:14:12,659 Speaker 5: future wages of working women. Mister Speaker Nichola Willis's pre 293 00:14:12,779 --> 00:14:17,499 Speaker 5: budget's been got at half right. This was a scramble 294 00:14:17,819 --> 00:14:23,179 Speaker 5: without the lollies. A budget that has scrambled the government's finances, 295 00:14:23,539 --> 00:14:26,259 Speaker 5: tried a whole lot of smoke and mirrors to hide 296 00:14:26,259 --> 00:14:29,499 Speaker 5: where their cuts are being made, and to try and 297 00:14:29,539 --> 00:14:32,739 Speaker 5: confuse New Zealanders with the idea that they'll be better 298 00:14:32,779 --> 00:14:35,139 Speaker 5: off when for a lot of key we families, this 299 00:14:35,259 --> 00:14:39,339 Speaker 5: budget is nothing but bad news. 300 00:14:42,979 --> 00:14:47,099 Speaker 1: Well, in terms of infrastructure, we've had some investments in 301 00:14:47,259 --> 00:14:52,219 Speaker 1: rail military equipment, and billion dollars on hospitals upgrades and maintenance. 302 00:14:52,379 --> 00:14:55,499 Speaker 1: Just under a billion dollars of capital and operating spending 303 00:14:55,579 --> 00:14:59,179 Speaker 1: on new classrooms, two hundred and nineteen million on recovery 304 00:14:59,219 --> 00:15:02,419 Speaker 1: work on cyclone damaged roads. Does this feel like a 305 00:15:02,459 --> 00:15:06,619 Speaker 1: good infrastructure spend? I ask this only because the Herald 306 00:15:06,699 --> 00:15:10,579 Speaker 1: editorial on Budget Day said that it is unacceptable for 307 00:15:10,699 --> 00:15:13,139 Speaker 1: some of us to have seen our quality of life 308 00:15:13,259 --> 00:15:16,699 Speaker 1: fall because of a lack of basic infrastructure. 309 00:15:17,019 --> 00:15:20,538 Speaker 2: So if we're saving thirty billion dollars, shouldn't we be 310 00:15:20,579 --> 00:15:23,459 Speaker 2: getting something a bit more out of it? Yeah, I mean, 311 00:15:23,459 --> 00:15:26,859 Speaker 2: this is the spending is fairly basic. It's the kind 312 00:15:26,939 --> 00:15:30,739 Speaker 2: of keeping things running, coping with the higher population, more 313 00:15:30,739 --> 00:15:33,579 Speaker 2: people living in certain areas, needing, needing the schools, making 314 00:15:33,619 --> 00:15:35,619 Speaker 2: sure that the hospitals can cope. And I imagine it's 315 00:15:35,619 --> 00:15:37,379 Speaker 2: still going to be plenty of people saying that this 316 00:15:37,459 --> 00:15:39,658 Speaker 2: is still going to be an incredibly tight budget for 317 00:15:40,419 --> 00:15:43,339 Speaker 2: health and education regardless. So this is where the government 318 00:15:43,379 --> 00:15:46,219 Speaker 2: is caught on the spending front. And the argument would 319 00:15:46,259 --> 00:15:48,819 Speaker 2: come back to debt and borrowing because the tax takes 320 00:15:48,859 --> 00:15:51,499 Speaker 2: down issues about how quickly it's going to come back 321 00:15:51,539 --> 00:15:53,979 Speaker 2: and start putting more money into the government coffers. They're 322 00:15:54,019 --> 00:15:55,658 Speaker 2: up against it, and so what are the options, Well, 323 00:15:55,699 --> 00:15:58,379 Speaker 2: you cut or you borrow, And of course the opposition 324 00:15:58,459 --> 00:16:00,779 Speaker 2: is saying, well, we could afford to borrow more, and 325 00:16:00,939 --> 00:16:04,579 Speaker 2: depends who you talk to, you know we could, but 326 00:16:04,619 --> 00:16:07,898 Speaker 2: that might be taking a higher level of risk, and 327 00:16:08,059 --> 00:16:09,939 Speaker 2: some people feel like taking at the moment, we could 328 00:16:09,939 --> 00:16:12,459 Speaker 2: probably technically afford to borrow more. But I think one 329 00:16:12,499 --> 00:16:15,579 Speaker 2: of the issues that politically holds this government back and 330 00:16:15,619 --> 00:16:17,299 Speaker 2: a lot of people who voted for them, is the 331 00:16:17,379 --> 00:16:20,499 Speaker 2: sense that governments can actually spend that money. Well, so 332 00:16:20,659 --> 00:16:23,099 Speaker 2: after what we've been through with all the borrowing and 333 00:16:23,139 --> 00:16:25,499 Speaker 2: spending to get through COVID, but then all all sorts 334 00:16:25,539 --> 00:16:28,339 Speaker 2: of other stuff that was planned on the infrastructure front 335 00:16:28,379 --> 00:16:31,658 Speaker 2: and hasn't happened, people are skeptical about the ability of 336 00:16:31,699 --> 00:16:34,419 Speaker 2: governments to deliver if they borrow more money. So I 337 00:16:34,459 --> 00:16:37,059 Speaker 2: think that's a big part of the debate around borrowing more. 338 00:16:37,139 --> 00:16:38,739 Speaker 3: You know, New Zealand is a country that has to 339 00:16:38,779 --> 00:16:41,219 Speaker 3: be ready for the next earthquake, or the next major 340 00:16:41,379 --> 00:16:45,179 Speaker 3: natural disaster, or the next big international shock. So I'm 341 00:16:45,299 --> 00:16:48,499 Speaker 3: kind of pleased to see Nicola willis being prudent there 342 00:16:48,579 --> 00:16:51,379 Speaker 3: and hopefully, you know, building for the future. I'm not 343 00:16:51,459 --> 00:16:54,339 Speaker 3: as gloomy as as some other commentators. If you've talked 344 00:16:54,339 --> 00:16:56,939 Speaker 3: to Matthew Hooton or someone like that, they think. 345 00:16:56,939 --> 00:16:59,499 Speaker 1: It's pretty gloomy there all day livestream. 346 00:16:59,539 --> 00:17:02,859 Speaker 6: Yeah, until the government is prepared to cut superannuation and 347 00:17:02,979 --> 00:17:08,139 Speaker 6: tertiary healthcare, basically this country is heading towards bankruptcy. None 348 00:17:08,179 --> 00:17:11,139 Speaker 6: of this stakes into account the problems that we've known 349 00:17:11,179 --> 00:17:14,218 Speaker 6: about for thirty or forty years, that Kicken from twenty thirty, 350 00:17:14,619 --> 00:17:18,178 Speaker 6: we're going to start that period about fifty percent of 351 00:17:18,219 --> 00:17:22,179 Speaker 6: GDP work than we expected at the end of the 352 00:17:22,419 --> 00:17:26,259 Speaker 6: era of reform under the Bulger, Shipley and Clark governments. 353 00:17:27,059 --> 00:17:30,299 Speaker 3: He would argue that we're in real trouble, say in 354 00:17:30,339 --> 00:17:32,419 Speaker 3: the next ten years, if we don't take some really 355 00:17:32,499 --> 00:17:35,979 Speaker 3: radical action and cut back even harder. So the alternative 356 00:17:36,019 --> 00:17:38,579 Speaker 3: is to bet on the growth. And so I think 357 00:17:38,619 --> 00:17:41,019 Speaker 3: the government is rolling the dice, betting on business to 358 00:17:41,299 --> 00:17:44,499 Speaker 3: grow this economy and betting I guess or hoping that 359 00:17:44,659 --> 00:17:46,979 Speaker 3: you know that the boom and the primary sector keeps going, 360 00:17:46,979 --> 00:17:49,219 Speaker 3: they can get tourism back. Yeah, those are the things 361 00:17:49,219 --> 00:17:49,979 Speaker 3: that need to happen. 362 00:17:50,099 --> 00:17:52,419 Speaker 1: Well, ultimately, Liam, do you think this budget is going 363 00:17:52,499 --> 00:17:53,979 Speaker 1: to be a winner with voters or is it a 364 00:17:53,979 --> 00:17:55,179 Speaker 1: bit too middle of the road. 365 00:17:55,459 --> 00:17:57,979 Speaker 3: Yeah, it it could be a difficult cell. But it 366 00:17:58,019 --> 00:17:59,859 Speaker 3: is the middle budget, you know, so that the first 367 00:17:59,859 --> 00:18:02,019 Speaker 3: budget in power in the three year term, you've kind 368 00:18:02,019 --> 00:18:03,979 Speaker 3: of got to deliver all these promises that you made, 369 00:18:04,019 --> 00:18:06,539 Speaker 3: so that's pretty costly. Second budget is the one that 370 00:18:06,619 --> 00:18:08,859 Speaker 3: might as well be the most unpopular budget, and it's 371 00:18:08,859 --> 00:18:11,139 Speaker 3: the one that people might forget because you've got another 372 00:18:11,179 --> 00:18:14,219 Speaker 3: one coming up in election year where you can maybe 373 00:18:14,259 --> 00:18:18,059 Speaker 3: put something a little bit more like whatever. For Nicholas said, 374 00:18:18,059 --> 00:18:20,179 Speaker 3: no lolly scramble is I'm not sure that budgets are 375 00:18:20,179 --> 00:18:22,619 Speaker 3: meant to be a lolly scramble, but a lolly or two. 376 00:18:23,139 --> 00:18:23,299 Speaker 6: Yeah. 377 00:18:23,339 --> 00:18:25,099 Speaker 3: I think I think this budget probably is quite a 378 00:18:25,139 --> 00:18:27,459 Speaker 3: hard sell. I mean, the business community will be quite 379 00:18:27,539 --> 00:18:29,779 Speaker 3: happy and they'll be excited about it, and there'll be 380 00:18:29,819 --> 00:18:32,539 Speaker 3: lots of discussion about growth and maybe maybe it's you know, 381 00:18:32,539 --> 00:18:35,899 Speaker 3: from a confidence point of view, that will be quite good. 382 00:18:35,939 --> 00:18:38,059 Speaker 3: But for the wider public, I think it's probably a 383 00:18:38,059 --> 00:18:38,499 Speaker 3: tough sell. 384 00:18:38,579 --> 00:18:44,779 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us, Liam, cheers. That's it for this 385 00:18:44,899 --> 00:18:48,019 Speaker 1: episode of The Front Page. You can read more about 386 00:18:48,059 --> 00:18:52,539 Speaker 1: today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzidherld dot co 387 00:18:52,899 --> 00:18:53,459 Speaker 1: dot MZ. 388 00:18:54,219 --> 00:18:56,539 Speaker 2: The Front Page is produced by Ethan. 389 00:18:56,299 --> 00:19:00,059 Speaker 1: Sells and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer. 390 00:19:00,579 --> 00:19:04,979 Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio 391 00:19:05,179 --> 00:19:08,179 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in on 392 00:19:08,419 --> 00:19:11,459 Speaker 1: Monday for another look behind the headlines.