1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: Frame Bridge, so Germany is on the road to change. 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: The Christian Democrats got the highest share of the vote, 3 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: with a tech over twenty eight percent. The far right 4 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: the AfD, got their best of a result with a 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: twenty percent share, but they won't enter government, as they 6 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: say to you. He's ruled them out as a coalition partner. 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: The New Zealand executive director, sorry, New Zealand Initiative executive 8 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: director is Oliver Hart. Which he's with me. He's an 9 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: expert on European and German politics. Good evening, Oliver, good 10 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: even thanks for being with me. I want to talk 11 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: about the German economy, massive manufacturing powerhouse, third largest economy 12 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: in the world, but is facing some real headwinds and 13 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: selling it's basically its cars to the rest of the world. 14 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: Yes, and that's not the only problem the German economy faces. 15 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: It's also an economy facing massive bureaucracy costs and of 16 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 2: course massive energy costs because it was an economic model 17 00:00:54,360 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: that was based on cheap, cheap energy imports from Russia. 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 2: And of course with the Ukraine War ended, and then 19 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: of course the Chinese took over the large part of 20 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: the German car manufacturer's market, and that was it, and 21 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 2: saw Germany has been struggling ever since, and that was 22 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 2: one of the reasons why the outgoing government was so 23 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 2: unpopular in the end. 24 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: And Germans, Germany is not used to struggling in recent years, 25 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 1: is it. 26 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: Well, the last time Germany struggled was about twenty years 27 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,759 Speaker 2: ago when unemployment reached five million people in two thousand 28 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: and three two thousand and four. But then they had 29 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 2: some economic reformance in the labor market and the next 30 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 2: twenty years basically went sillingly. More recently, of course, and 31 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: all the other geopolitical factors are starting to buy it 32 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 2: for the Germans, and ever said, this is one of 33 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 2: the explanations for the rights of the AfD. 34 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: So what do they do about it? Because you've got, 35 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: as you said, the energy situation. Well, hopefully we'll have 36 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: a resolution to the war in Ukraine, which will help 37 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: you alleviate some of that. But the bureaucracy, obviously you 38 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: can cut some of that. What do they have to 39 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: do and can they do it? Was whoever they might 40 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: manage to form a government with. 41 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 2: Well, they obviously have to work on deregulation and getting 42 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 2: rid of the bureaucracy, which is a massive problem for Germany. 43 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 2: They have to do something about the energy market because 44 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 2: the cheap Russian guests will not come back. Even at 45 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: the end of the Ukraine War, and keep in minds 46 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 2: that they also faced out nuclear power right in the 47 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: middle of the war, so that was probably not the 48 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 2: wisest decision to take. So they have to work at 49 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: on the economic front. But they also have to do 50 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 2: on top of that is they have to re arm 51 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: because the German armed forces are in a sorry state 52 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 2: and with the current uncertain geopolitical landscape, Germany has to 53 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: invest a lot more in its defense. So there are 54 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 2: many many challengers waiting for the next and most likely 55 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 2: new Chancellor. British mats And he has never had an 56 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 2: executive role in his whole career at sixty nine. He's 57 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: been an MP for a long time. He's an experienced lawyer, 58 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 2: but this is the first time that he actually takes 59 00:02:56,919 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 2: an executive job in government and interesting to see how 60 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 2: he adjusted that. 61 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: Did Angela Merkel make some pretty big fatal errors in 62 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: relying on that guess from Russia and also on migration. 63 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 2: Yes, she made some massive errors on guests. She also 64 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 2: made some massive errors and consto migration, opening the boarders 65 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 2: to a massive wave of refugees in twenty fifteen. And 66 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 2: again this is another explanation for the rise of the EFD, 67 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: because the AfD was the party that made it its 68 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 2: main topic really over the last ten years, to fight 69 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 2: against this rise of asilum seekers and refugees, to the 70 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 2: point actually we're sixty eight percent of Germans and recent 71 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 2: polls said that they thought the level was where the 72 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 2: fine should be reduced. And so all of this and 73 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: the unwillingness of the existing parties to tackle any of 74 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 2: these issues explains why the AfD became such a strong 75 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: party in yesterday's election. 76 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: Do you believe Mees when he says he won't touch 77 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: the AfD. Do you think he would break that blockade? 78 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: I totally believe him on that, because he has actually 79 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 2: positioned himself very clearly on that. What he was trying 80 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: to do, especially over the past few weeks, was to 81 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: rob the AfD of its lifeblood by basically tackling the 82 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 2: problems that many other German politicians on the center right 83 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 2: had so far refused to even talk about. He tried 84 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 2: to actually rob the AfD some of the percentage points 85 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: that may not have worked in the short run, as 86 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 2: we could see in the elections out yesterday, but I 87 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: think in the long run it's probably the only chance 88 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: that his party has to actually regain some of the 89 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 2: territory that over the past ten years lost. 90 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: Can you explain how his party is going to work 91 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 1: basically basically going to have to work with ol Of 92 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: Schultz's party that they know, more left wing party that's 93 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: in government and coalition at the moment. How does that work? 94 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 2: It's not very interesting to see. But then again Germans 95 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 2: are used to having relatively unusual coalitions and mine by 96 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: New Zealand stent. That's what they're talking about is the 97 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: coalition of National and Labor except National would have twenty 98 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,359 Speaker 2: eight percent in Labor sixteen. So this is rough. Just 99 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: to put it in context into context, this is what 100 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 2: the Germans have to deal with. But then again they've 101 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 2: had very unusual constellations in government before. I mean, think 102 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 2: of the outgoing government. It was the coalition of the 103 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 2: Social Democrats, the Greens and the FTPS about New Zealand standards, 104 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 2: that's sort have been Labor Act and the Greens together. 105 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 2: I mean, it was one of the reasons why it 106 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: probably didn't work any end because it was such an 107 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 2: unusual coalition. But there is a tradition of having unusual 108 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 2: coalitions and it's not the first time, of course that 109 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 2: we get this so called grand coalition. I mean it's 110 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 2: happened in the nineteen sixties, before it happened for most 111 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 2: of the time that Ange Lamac was chancellor. Saw this 112 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 2: is just another kind of grand coalition and they have 113 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:42,240 Speaker 2: been there before. 114 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: Oliver, thank you very much for that. Oliver Hartwich, who's 115 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 1: the New Zealand Initiative executive director. For more from Hither 116 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: Duplessy Alan Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be 117 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.