WEBVTT - What's next for Iran after US bombs the country's nuclear sites? 

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<v Speaker 1>Jiaoda.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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<v Speaker 2>daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. In a

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<v Speaker 2>move called Operation Midnight Hammer, the US has attacked several

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<v Speaker 2>key nuclear facilities in Iran. The strikes mark a significant

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<v Speaker 2>escalation in the ongoing Israel Iran conflict, with President Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump saying Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must

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<v Speaker 2>now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will

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<v Speaker 2>be far greater and a lot easier. He's also calling

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<v Speaker 2>for Iran to myga make I ran greater game. In response,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's foreign minister said Washington crossed a very big red line,

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<v Speaker 2>and its parliament has also reportedly voted to shut the

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<v Speaker 2>Straitu or mass where a fifth of the world's oil

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<v Speaker 2>consumption flows through the advancements saw Our Foreign Minister, Winston

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<v Speaker 2>Peters quickly called for diplomacy and dialogue, while also announcing

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<v Speaker 2>government personnel and a Hercules aircraft be deployed to the

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East to help get stranded Kiwi's home today on

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<v Speaker 2>the front page to help us make sense of this

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<v Speaker 2>crisis and what this heightening of tensions means for the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the world. We're joined by University of Otago

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<v Speaker 2>International Relations professor Robert Patman. The news of this bombing

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<v Speaker 2>came through around midday on Sunday. What was your first

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<v Speaker 2>reaction to the news, Robert dismay.

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<v Speaker 1>And also, I think with the President holding out the

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<v Speaker 1>prospect of a diplomatic solution up to the point where

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<v Speaker 1>the Israeli started attacking Iran, which was about ten days ago,

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<v Speaker 1>I thought it was still possible that there could be

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<v Speaker 1>a way in which this issue could be resolved on

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<v Speaker 1>several fronts. I'm dismayed because, first of all, a strike

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<v Speaker 1>of this nature is inconsistent with a rules based order,

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<v Speaker 1>it's illegal, is inconsistent with the UN Charter. But it

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<v Speaker 1>also is probably going to be a catalyst for Iran

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<v Speaker 1>to develop the nuclear weapons capability. After all, the lesson

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<v Speaker 1>that the Iranian leadership will take is that they've been

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<v Speaker 1>denied the possibility. They are a member of the Non

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<v Speaker 1>Proliferation Treaty, and yet both Israel and the United States

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<v Speaker 1>have been effectively denying them something which has allowed other countries,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the ability to develop nuclear energy for civilian

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<v Speaker 1>purposes without developing nuclear weapons. I mean, that's certainly the

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<v Speaker 1>case in countries like Germany and Japan and many others

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<v Speaker 1>where people have a nuclear energy sector, but it doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>translate into weaponry, and that's what they said they always wanted. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the secrecy of the regime has probably worked

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<v Speaker 1>against them. But it's no secret that mister Neetna, who

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<v Speaker 1>has been campaigning for the best part of thirty years

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<v Speaker 1>to take preemptive action to develop what he has described

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<v Speaker 1>as a nuclear weapon in Iran. But I'm dismayed because

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<v Speaker 1>the President, I think should have shown a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>independence from Israel on this issue. I think many Americans

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<v Speaker 1>feel that. My reason I'm dismayed is because I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think what the Americans have done actually helped solve the problem.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it actually makes it worse.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Trump said he was going to give around two

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<v Speaker 2>weeks to negotiate. He barely gave them a weekend. What

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<v Speaker 2>do you think changed over that time.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, clearly this operation had been planned for a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he wanted to keep the Iranians guessing and

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<v Speaker 1>maybe lull them into a false sense of security that

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<v Speaker 1>America will give it another two weeks up he said.

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<v Speaker 1>He get you know, in his defense, mister Trump would

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<v Speaker 1>say I never committed to going to the fall two weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>I said we would have up to two weeks before

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<v Speaker 1>America had to take I think the term he used

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<v Speaker 1>was decisive action or something like that. I'm not sure that.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the things I worry about the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems to be operating and an information and bubble.

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<v Speaker 1>US intelligence warned mister Trump there was no evidence that

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<v Speaker 1>the regime in Iran was developing nuclear weapons. The International

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<v Speaker 1>Atomic Energy Agency that i AA, I should say, they've

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<v Speaker 1>indicated in the last week there was no evidence that

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<v Speaker 1>Iran was developing nuclear weapons. So, in a sense, mister

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has made a decision based on his briefings from

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<v Speaker 1>mister Netniya, who who he's very close to, and he's

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<v Speaker 1>gout instinct, and I think what he has done has

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<v Speaker 1>been I think that this will prove to be a

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<v Speaker 1>fateful step.

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<v Speaker 3>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's an old saying in military circles, you can

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<v Speaker 1>initiate the application of force, and that's quite easy to

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<v Speaker 1>do that, particularly when you've got a lot of military

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<v Speaker 1>capabilities at your disposed of, like the United States, But

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<v Speaker 1>you can't always bring that process to an easy halt.

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<v Speaker 1>In other words, mister Trump's taken actions which will have

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<v Speaker 1>consequences which he cannot control. I think this is a

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<v Speaker 1>destabilizing step for the region.

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<v Speaker 4>For forty years around Hasman's saying death to America, Death

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<v Speaker 4>to Israel, they have been killing our people, blowing off

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<v Speaker 4>their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That

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<v Speaker 4>was their specialty. We lost over a thousand people, and

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<v Speaker 4>hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the

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<v Speaker 4>world have died as a direct result of their hate.

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<v Speaker 4>In particular, so many were killed by their general Cassem Solomony.

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<v Speaker 4>I decided a long time ago that I would not

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<v Speaker 4>let this happen.

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<v Speaker 5>It will not continue.

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<v Speaker 4>I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.

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<v Speaker 4>We worked as a team like perhaps no team has

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<v Speaker 4>ever worked before.

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<v Speaker 2>Has Trump basically broken every international law there is.

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<v Speaker 1>Well today, mister Trump's actions seem to be inconsistent with

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<v Speaker 1>you in Charter, they seem to be inconsistent with the

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<v Speaker 1>Non Proliferation Treaty, and they seem to be inconsistent with

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<v Speaker 1>international law. Because mister Trump claimed that there was an

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<v Speaker 1>imminent threat, where's the evidence of the imminent threat from

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<v Speaker 1>a country which does not yet have nuclear weapons. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>put this into some sort of context. Chelsea. We had

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<v Speaker 1>two nuclear weapons states, that is Iran, the US using

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<v Speaker 1>military force against the country which doesn't have nuclear weapons

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<v Speaker 1>to prevent it from having nuclear weapons. And the stumbling

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<v Speaker 1>block in the negotiations, which were interrupted by the military

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<v Speaker 1>action of Israel about ten days ago. But up to

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<v Speaker 1>that point the Iranian leadership and the US leadership were

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<v Speaker 1>making quite hopeful noises. But the stumbling block seemed to

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<v Speaker 1>be that the US moved the goalposts halfway through, because

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<v Speaker 1>initially they accepted, at least in principle, that subject to

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<v Speaker 1>intrusive inspection, there was no problem around having nuclear energy

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<v Speaker 1>for peaceful purposes. Halfway through they changed. According this is

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranian a take on the negotiations. Halfway through that

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<v Speaker 1>about the third round of negotiations, there were five rounds,

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<v Speaker 1>so there was going to be a sick round before

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<v Speaker 1>shortly before the Israelis intervene with their military attack. The

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<v Speaker 1>Iranians claimed that halfway through the negotiations, the Americans suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>decided they took on the Israeli negotiating position, which was

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<v Speaker 1>that Iran can't either have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,

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<v Speaker 1>and they certainly can't have it for weapons. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>you know, that basically meant the negotiations were not going

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<v Speaker 1>to progress as quickly as one hoped. But it seems

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<v Speaker 1>that this step. One of the things that worries me

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<v Speaker 1>a great deal is that the administration in Washington seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be, as I said before, operating in a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of an information bubble. Many of the top officials in

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<v Speaker 1>the administration have been appointed on the basis of loyalty,

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<v Speaker 1>not competence. And I was hoping that when Israel unilaterally,

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<v Speaker 1>in the words of the United States, attacked Iran, that

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<v Speaker 1>the President would show the backbone and the fortitude and

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<v Speaker 1>the strength to do what President is how it did

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<v Speaker 1>in nineteen fifty six, which was to denounce a unilateral

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<v Speaker 1>action by a close ally, which was then Israel in

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen fifty six against Egypt. But mister Trump didn't. He's

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<v Speaker 1>seemed quite relaxed about Israel sabotaging American diplomacy in relation

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<v Speaker 1>to Iran, and we subsequent events shows why he was relaxed,

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<v Speaker 1>because he joined in on israel side against Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>There had been maga in fighting over whether or not

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<v Speaker 2>to intervene.

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<v Speaker 5>So I am not the Tucker Carlson mixed bird on Iran.

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<v Speaker 5>You're a sayer who's calling the one about the country.

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<v Speaker 6>No, you don't know anything about the country. You're the

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<v Speaker 6>one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying that.

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<v Speaker 6>Who can't figure out to say it killed General Solamonia.

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<v Speaker 6>You said they're trying to murder Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, because you're not calling for military strikes against them

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<v Speaker 3>in retaliation.

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<v Speaker 6>If they really believed that carrying out military strikes today,

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<v Speaker 6>you said Israel was right with our help.

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<v Speaker 5>I said we Israel is leading them, but we're supporting them.

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<v Speaker 3>You're breaking news here because the US government last night

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<v Speaker 3>denied the nationalis Curity Council spokesman Alex Favor denied on

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<v Speaker 3>behalf of Trump that we were acting on Israel's behalf

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<v Speaker 3>in any offensive capacity.

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<v Speaker 5>We're not barmbing, then Israel's barmbing. You just said we were.

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<v Speaker 2>It's basically isolation versus intervention here. So why is the

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<v Speaker 2>US trying to get involved again?

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's always been a tendency within the United

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<v Speaker 1>States to believe there's a solution to every single problem

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<v Speaker 1>there's also a tendency in the United States to believe

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<v Speaker 1>that military power can solve political problems. I think on

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<v Speaker 1>both counts they're mistaken. As I say, if you hear

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<v Speaker 1>mister Trump said in his speech yesterday to the American

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<v Speaker 1>people that they had obliterated through these bombings through nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>sites in Iran, they had obliterated Iran's nuclear facilities. But

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<v Speaker 1>we've had no independent verification of that claim. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>know whether that's true or not. But the assumption that

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<v Speaker 1>you can bomb your way to eliminating Iran's nuclear capability

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<v Speaker 1>does not sit comfortably with the realities of the world

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<v Speaker 1>we live in.

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<v Speaker 2>He also said he was trying to stop the nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, those are some words that we've heard before.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, Iran's position has been to oppose Israel in the

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<v Speaker 1>context of Middle Eastern politics, and they've been I suppose,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most formidable supporters of the Palestinian cause.

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<v Speaker 1>But the problem is that mister Nietnyahu does not recognize

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<v Speaker 1>that the Palestinians have a right to political self determination.

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<v Speaker 1>And while he denies that right, he's giving scope to

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<v Speaker 1>authoritarian regimes like Iran to exploit that omission, and they've

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<v Speaker 1>done that. They've provided alms to Hamas, they provided arms

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<v Speaker 1>to Hesbula in Lebanon, and they have provided support for

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<v Speaker 1>the Huti rebels in Yemen. That's not all to do

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<v Speaker 1>with the palest Union issue. But what's interesting is that

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<v Speaker 1>the attacks by Israel on Iran haven't been confined to

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear facilities, which then raises the question why they're conducting

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<v Speaker 1>attacks against economic infrastructure and other military capabilities. It raises

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<v Speaker 1>the question of whether they're engaging in an attempt at

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<v Speaker 1>regime change.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you make of New Zealand's response so.

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<v Speaker 1>Far, it's been very guarded and mister Peters, the Foreign Minister,

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<v Speaker 1>said he was waiting for the four facts. He wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>have a rush to judgment. But we have to be

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<v Speaker 1>quite careful because New Zealand as a country does depend heavily,

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<v Speaker 1>in the words of the Department of Cabinet and Prime Minister,

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<v Speaker 1>does depend quite heavily on a rules based international order.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems to me that this type of action, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's one of many that we've seen, not just the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration, but going back, you know, we've got, the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's outlandage claim to ninety percent

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<v Speaker 1>of South China Sea, the US invasion of Iraq. The

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<v Speaker 1>list goes on. We've had a whole series of episodes

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<v Speaker 1>or events in the post nine to eleven period which

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<v Speaker 1>have gradually eroded the idea of international relations being based

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<v Speaker 1>on rules and process and principles. And that's the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of world that New Zealand wants. So I think many

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<v Speaker 1>people are expecting a country like New Zealand, which has

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<v Speaker 1>championed non nuclear security, to have a position on this issue.

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<v Speaker 7>The crisis in the Middle East is extremely concerning. We're

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<v Speaker 7>worried about the developments and the consequences are through the escalation,

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<v Speaker 7>including for newsielders. We acknowledge the developments of the last

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<v Speaker 7>twenty four hours, including President Donald Trump's announcement of US

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<v Speaker 7>at exil nuclear facilities in Iran. Zion continues to advocate

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<v Speaker 7>for diplomacy and a dialogue. Ongoing military action in the

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<v Speaker 7>Middle East is extremely worrying and it's critical further escalation

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<v Speaker 7>is avoided.

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<v Speaker 2>What more should we be doing on the world stage here?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think, first of all, I think mister Peter's

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<v Speaker 1>concern is to make sure he doesn't say anything or

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<v Speaker 1>do anything that will complicate removing New Zealand citizens from

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<v Speaker 1>the strife to l Middle East, which is a fair point.

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<v Speaker 1>But I do think we should be pushing for reform

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<v Speaker 1>of the UN Security Council. That seems to me a

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<v Speaker 1>strategic thing that New Zealand should do because at the moment,

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:50.880
<v Speaker 1>the UN Security Council has been completely marginalized by the

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:54.400
<v Speaker 1>fact that five countries decide matters the war and peace

0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.439
<v Speaker 1>in the world. Because they have the pair of veto,

0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:59.600
<v Speaker 1>they can block anything they don't like internationally, and that

0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:03.559
<v Speaker 1>means effectively that countries like the United States, Russia and

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:08.439
<v Speaker 1>China they can Basically they've got tremendous freedom of autonomy.

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 1>They're not accountable. In short, who's going to hold the

0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:15.280
<v Speaker 1>Trump administration accountable for what they've just done other than

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 1>their own people within the United States and the reaction

0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 1>of the rest of the world in diplomatic terms. But

0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>I do think New Zealand should be looking at this

0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 1>most recent episode and weighing it against those other trends

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 1>I've mentioned in the post nine to eleven world and

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.840
<v Speaker 1>saying I think New Zeum decision makers should get together

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 1>with other small and middle powers which depend on a

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 1>rules based order and say we need to strengthen the

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 1>UN Security Council, We need to constrain the use of

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>the VETO, and we need to make the UN Security

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 1>Council capable of doing what it's supposed to do, which

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 1>is being a barrier to war. And also for Phillip's

0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 1>responsibility of maintaining global peace and security. At the moment,

0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 1>that institution won't do its job. It's dysfunctional. That worries

0:15:02.600 --> 0:15:04.880
<v Speaker 1>me a great deal because the rest of the world

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:07.120
<v Speaker 1>is paying the price for the fact that the three

0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.400
<v Speaker 1>biggest law breakers on the planet are all permanent members

0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:11.520
<v Speaker 1>of the Security Council.

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 2>Well, that leads me on to my next question. I

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.640
<v Speaker 2>was thinking, what is the point of the UN Security

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Council and will there ever be any justice for what's

0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 2>been happening not only in Ukraine, Gaza and now Israel

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 2>and Iran. I mean, will there be some kind of

0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 2>Nuremberg trial at the end of this, like who actually

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 2>pays Well.

0:15:32.640 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 1>It won't happen unless people push for it. And at

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 1>some point the smaller and middle powers have to begin

0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>to assert themselves on the international stage, and that takes courage.

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.280
<v Speaker 1>Many liberal democracies are loath to do anything that was

0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>critical of the United States because they fear for that

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 1>that would result in them being penalized economically or in

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 1>trade terms, and so they're a bit reluctant to do that.

0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 1>But you know, your question is an appropriate one. In

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:03.960
<v Speaker 1>a region where war crimes are being committed by multiple parties,

0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.040
<v Speaker 1>who's going to be held accountable for it? And let's

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.520
<v Speaker 1>be quite frank, let's be quite clear about this. The

0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 1>majority of countries are deeply unhappy about the fact that

0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:18.240
<v Speaker 1>we're slipping into a world where the unilateral use of

0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:23.800
<v Speaker 1>military power is becoming normalized. Traditional principles like non interference

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 1>and domestic affairs, the principal states, sovereignty, and the invilability

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 1>of borders, these are becoming steadily eroded. I know that

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:33.640
<v Speaker 1>mister Trump, Shi Jingping, and mister Poutin won't be too

0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 1>disturbed by that, because they probably see international law and

0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:40.920
<v Speaker 1>a rules based international order as a constraint on their action.

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.880
<v Speaker 1>But that does not apply to the rest of the world.

0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:48.360
<v Speaker 1>So until we get leadership from smaller countries and middle powers,

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.359
<v Speaker 1>I can't see the situation is going to change greatly, Chelsea.

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.480
<v Speaker 2>And lastly, Robert, there have been a few moments in

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.640
<v Speaker 2>the last few years where it does feel like we're

0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 2>on the precipice of a World War three, and if

0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.520
<v Speaker 2>you go on social media at the moment especially, people

0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.880
<v Speaker 2>are acting like it is the end of the world.

0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 2>Do you think people should be concerned here?

0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 1>They should be concerned, definitely, But we have the keep

0:17:09.600 --> 0:17:14.119
<v Speaker 1>a sense of aportion about this. And the thing that

0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.560
<v Speaker 1>worries me a great deal is there is a great

0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:20.199
<v Speaker 1>deal of concern amongst ordinary people. I don't see a

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:25.120
<v Speaker 1>great deal of concern amongst leaders in liberal democracies. How

0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:29.000
<v Speaker 1>many liberal democracies have spoken out forcefully about the action

0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.480
<v Speaker 1>that the Trump administration has taken. Many of them are

0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.080
<v Speaker 1>furious in private, but are they saying much in public?

0:17:35.359 --> 0:17:38.159
<v Speaker 1>Are they articulating the views of their own population on

0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 1>this issue?

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:40.080
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for joining us, Robert.

0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:40.520
<v Speaker 1>Thank you.

0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.919
<v Speaker 2>That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You

0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 2>can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 2>at enzedherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is

0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:58.600
<v Speaker 2>produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:03.400
<v Speaker 2>our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the front

0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:07.040
<v Speaker 2>page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.720
<v Speaker 2>tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.