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Speaker 1: Jiaoda.

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Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a

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Speaker 2: daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. In a

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Speaker 2: move called Operation Midnight Hammer, the US has attacked several

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Speaker 2: key nuclear facilities in Iran. The strikes mark a significant

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Speaker 2: escalation in the ongoing Israel Iran conflict, with President Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump saying Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must

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Speaker 2: now make peace. If they do not, future attacks will

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Speaker 2: be far greater and a lot easier. He's also calling

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Speaker 2: for Iran to myga make I ran greater game. In response,

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Speaker 2: Iran's foreign minister said Washington crossed a very big red line,

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Speaker 2: and its parliament has also reportedly voted to shut the

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Speaker 2: Straitu or mass where a fifth of the world's oil

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Speaker 2: consumption flows through the advancements saw Our Foreign Minister, Winston

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Speaker 2: Peters quickly called for diplomacy and dialogue, while also announcing

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Speaker 2: government personnel and a Hercules aircraft be deployed to the

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Speaker 2: Middle East to help get stranded Kiwi's home today on

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Speaker 2: the front page to help us make sense of this

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Speaker 2: crisis and what this heightening of tensions means for the

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Speaker 2: rest of the world. We're joined by University of Otago

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Speaker 2: International Relations professor Robert Patman. The news of this bombing

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Speaker 2: came through around midday on Sunday. What was your first

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Speaker 2: reaction to the news, Robert dismay.

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Speaker 1: And also, I think with the President holding out the

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Speaker 1: prospect of a diplomatic solution up to the point where

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Speaker 1: the Israeli started attacking Iran, which was about ten days ago,

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Speaker 1: I thought it was still possible that there could be

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Speaker 1: a way in which this issue could be resolved on

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Speaker 1: several fronts. I'm dismayed because, first of all, a strike

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Speaker 1: of this nature is inconsistent with a rules based order,

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Speaker 1: it's illegal, is inconsistent with the UN Charter. But it

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Speaker 1: also is probably going to be a catalyst for Iran

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Speaker 1: to develop the nuclear weapons capability. After all, the lesson

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Speaker 1: that the Iranian leadership will take is that they've been

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Speaker 1: denied the possibility. They are a member of the Non

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Speaker 1: Proliferation Treaty, and yet both Israel and the United States

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Speaker 1: have been effectively denying them something which has allowed other countries,

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Speaker 1: which is the ability to develop nuclear energy for civilian

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Speaker 1: purposes without developing nuclear weapons. I mean, that's certainly the

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Speaker 1: case in countries like Germany and Japan and many others

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Speaker 1: where people have a nuclear energy sector, but it doesn't

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Speaker 1: translate into weaponry, and that's what they said they always wanted. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think the secrecy of the regime has probably worked

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Speaker 1: against them. But it's no secret that mister Neetna, who

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Speaker 1: has been campaigning for the best part of thirty years

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Speaker 1: to take preemptive action to develop what he has described

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Speaker 1: as a nuclear weapon in Iran. But I'm dismayed because

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Speaker 1: the President, I think should have shown a lot more

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Speaker 1: independence from Israel on this issue. I think many Americans

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Speaker 1: feel that. My reason I'm dismayed is because I don't

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Speaker 1: think what the Americans have done actually helped solve the problem.

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Speaker 1: I think it actually makes it worse.

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Speaker 2: Well, Trump said he was going to give around two

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Speaker 2: weeks to negotiate. He barely gave them a weekend. What

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Speaker 2: do you think changed over that time.

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Speaker 1: Oh, clearly this operation had been planned for a long time.

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Speaker 1: I think he wanted to keep the Iranians guessing and

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Speaker 1: maybe lull them into a false sense of security that

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Speaker 1: America will give it another two weeks up he said.

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Speaker 1: He get you know, in his defense, mister Trump would

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Speaker 1: say I never committed to going to the fall two weeks.

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Speaker 1: I said we would have up to two weeks before

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Speaker 1: America had to take I think the term he used

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Speaker 1: was decisive action or something like that. I'm not sure that.

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Speaker 1: One of the things I worry about the Trump administration,

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Speaker 1: it seems to be operating and an information and bubble.

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Speaker 1: US intelligence warned mister Trump there was no evidence that

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Speaker 1: the regime in Iran was developing nuclear weapons. The International

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Speaker 1: Atomic Energy Agency that i AA, I should say, they've

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Speaker 1: indicated in the last week there was no evidence that

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Speaker 1: Iran was developing nuclear weapons. So, in a sense, mister

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Speaker 1: Trump has made a decision based on his briefings from

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Speaker 1: mister Netniya, who who he's very close to, and he's

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Speaker 1: gout instinct, and I think what he has done has

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Speaker 1: been I think that this will prove to be a

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Speaker 1: fateful step.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's it's an old saying in military circles, you can

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Speaker 1: initiate the application of force, and that's quite easy to

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Speaker 1: do that, particularly when you've got a lot of military

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Speaker 1: capabilities at your disposed of, like the United States, But

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Speaker 1: you can't always bring that process to an easy halt.

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Speaker 1: In other words, mister Trump's taken actions which will have

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Speaker 1: consequences which he cannot control. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: destabilizing step for the region.

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Speaker 4: For forty years around Hasman's saying death to America, Death

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Speaker 4: to Israel, they have been killing our people, blowing off

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Speaker 4: their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs. That

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Speaker 4: was their specialty. We lost over a thousand people, and

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Speaker 4: hundreds of thousands throughout the Middle East and around the

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Speaker 4: world have died as a direct result of their hate.

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Speaker 4: In particular, so many were killed by their general Cassem Solomony.

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Speaker 4: I decided a long time ago that I would not

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Speaker 4: let this happen.

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Speaker 5: It will not continue.

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Speaker 4: I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu.

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Speaker 4: We worked as a team like perhaps no team has

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Speaker 4: ever worked before.

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Speaker 2: Has Trump basically broken every international law there is.

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Speaker 1: Well today, mister Trump's actions seem to be inconsistent with

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Speaker 1: you in Charter, they seem to be inconsistent with the

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Speaker 1: Non Proliferation Treaty, and they seem to be inconsistent with

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Speaker 1: international law. Because mister Trump claimed that there was an

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Speaker 1: imminent threat, where's the evidence of the imminent threat from

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Speaker 1: a country which does not yet have nuclear weapons. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this into some sort of context. Chelsea. We had

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Speaker 1: two nuclear weapons states, that is Iran, the US using

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Speaker 1: military force against the country which doesn't have nuclear weapons

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Speaker 1: to prevent it from having nuclear weapons. And the stumbling

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Speaker 1: block in the negotiations, which were interrupted by the military

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Speaker 1: action of Israel about ten days ago. But up to

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Speaker 1: that point the Iranian leadership and the US leadership were

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Speaker 1: making quite hopeful noises. But the stumbling block seemed to

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Speaker 1: be that the US moved the goalposts halfway through, because

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Speaker 1: initially they accepted, at least in principle, that subject to

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Speaker 1: intrusive inspection, there was no problem around having nuclear energy

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Speaker 1: for peaceful purposes. Halfway through they changed. According this is

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Speaker 1: the Iranian a take on the negotiations. Halfway through that

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Speaker 1: about the third round of negotiations, there were five rounds,

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Speaker 1: so there was going to be a sick round before

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Speaker 1: shortly before the Israelis intervene with their military attack. The

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Speaker 1: Iranians claimed that halfway through the negotiations, the Americans suddenly

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Speaker 1: decided they took on the Israeli negotiating position, which was

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Speaker 1: that Iran can't either have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,

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Speaker 1: and they certainly can't have it for weapons. So that's

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Speaker 1: you know, that basically meant the negotiations were not going

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Speaker 1: to progress as quickly as one hoped. But it seems

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Speaker 1: that this step. One of the things that worries me

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Speaker 1: a great deal is that the administration in Washington seems

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Speaker 1: to be, as I said before, operating in a bit

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Speaker 1: of an information bubble. Many of the top officials in

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Speaker 1: the administration have been appointed on the basis of loyalty,

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Speaker 1: not competence. And I was hoping that when Israel unilaterally,

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Speaker 1: in the words of the United States, attacked Iran, that

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Speaker 1: the President would show the backbone and the fortitude and

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Speaker 1: the strength to do what President is how it did

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Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty six, which was to denounce a unilateral

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Speaker 1: action by a close ally, which was then Israel in

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Speaker 1: nineteen fifty six against Egypt. But mister Trump didn't. He's

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Speaker 1: seemed quite relaxed about Israel sabotaging American diplomacy in relation

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Speaker 1: to Iran, and we subsequent events shows why he was relaxed,

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Speaker 1: because he joined in on israel side against Iran.

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Speaker 2: There had been maga in fighting over whether or not

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Speaker 2: to intervene.

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Speaker 5: So I am not the Tucker Carlson mixed bird on Iran.

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Speaker 5: You're a sayer who's calling the one about the country.

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Speaker 6: No, you don't know anything about the country. You're the

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Speaker 6: one who claims they're not trying to murder Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that.

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Speaker 6: Who can't figure out to say it killed General Solamonia.

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Speaker 6: You said they're trying to murder Trump.

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Speaker 3: Yes, because you're not calling for military strikes against them

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Speaker 3: in retaliation.

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Speaker 6: If they really believed that carrying out military strikes today,

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Speaker 6: you said Israel was right with our help.

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Speaker 5: I said we Israel is leading them, but we're supporting them.

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Speaker 3: You're breaking news here because the US government last night

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Speaker 3: denied the nationalis Curity Council spokesman Alex Favor denied on

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Speaker 3: behalf of Trump that we were acting on Israel's behalf

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Speaker 3: in any offensive capacity.

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Speaker 5: We're not barmbing, then Israel's barmbing. You just said we were.

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Speaker 2: It's basically isolation versus intervention here. So why is the

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Speaker 2: US trying to get involved again?

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Speaker 1: I think there's always been a tendency within the United

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Speaker 1: States to believe there's a solution to every single problem

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Speaker 1: there's also a tendency in the United States to believe

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Speaker 1: that military power can solve political problems. I think on

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Speaker 1: both counts they're mistaken. As I say, if you hear

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Speaker 1: mister Trump said in his speech yesterday to the American

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Speaker 1: people that they had obliterated through these bombings through nuclear

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Speaker 1: sites in Iran, they had obliterated Iran's nuclear facilities. But

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Speaker 1: we've had no independent verification of that claim. We don't

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Speaker 1: know whether that's true or not. But the assumption that

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Speaker 1: you can bomb your way to eliminating Iran's nuclear capability

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Speaker 1: does not sit comfortably with the realities of the world

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Speaker 1: we live in.

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Speaker 2: He also said he was trying to stop the nuclear

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Speaker 2: threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.

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Speaker 2: I mean, those are some words that we've heard before.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Iran's position has been to oppose Israel in the

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Speaker 1: context of Middle Eastern politics, and they've been I suppose,

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Speaker 1: one of the most formidable supporters of the Palestinian cause.

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Speaker 1: But the problem is that mister Nietnyahu does not recognize

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Speaker 1: that the Palestinians have a right to political self determination.

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Speaker 1: And while he denies that right, he's giving scope to

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Speaker 1: authoritarian regimes like Iran to exploit that omission, and they've

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Speaker 1: done that. They've provided alms to Hamas, they provided arms

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Speaker 1: to Hesbula in Lebanon, and they have provided support for

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Speaker 1: the Huti rebels in Yemen. That's not all to do

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Speaker 1: with the palest Union issue. But what's interesting is that

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Speaker 1: the attacks by Israel on Iran haven't been confined to

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Speaker 1: nuclear facilities, which then raises the question why they're conducting

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Speaker 1: attacks against economic infrastructure and other military capabilities. It raises

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Speaker 1: the question of whether they're engaging in an attempt at

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Speaker 1: regime change.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of New Zealand's response so.

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Speaker 1: Far, it's been very guarded and mister Peters, the Foreign Minister,

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Speaker 1: said he was waiting for the four facts. He wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have a rush to judgment. But we have to be

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Speaker 1: quite careful because New Zealand as a country does depend heavily,

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Speaker 1: in the words of the Department of Cabinet and Prime Minister,

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Speaker 1: does depend quite heavily on a rules based international order.

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Speaker 1: It seems to me that this type of action, and

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Speaker 1: it's one of many that we've seen, not just the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration, but going back, you know, we've got, the

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Speaker 1: Russian invasion of Ukraine, China's outlandage claim to ninety percent

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Speaker 1: of South China Sea, the US invasion of Iraq. The

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Speaker 1: list goes on. We've had a whole series of episodes

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Speaker 1: or events in the post nine to eleven period which

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Speaker 1: have gradually eroded the idea of international relations being based

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Speaker 1: on rules and process and principles. And that's the sort

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Speaker 1: of world that New Zealand wants. So I think many

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Speaker 1: people are expecting a country like New Zealand, which has

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Speaker 1: championed non nuclear security, to have a position on this issue.

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Speaker 7: The crisis in the Middle East is extremely concerning. We're

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Speaker 7: worried about the developments and the consequences are through the escalation,

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Speaker 7: including for newsielders. We acknowledge the developments of the last

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Speaker 7: twenty four hours, including President Donald Trump's announcement of US

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Speaker 7: at exil nuclear facilities in Iran. Zion continues to advocate

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Speaker 7: for diplomacy and a dialogue. Ongoing military action in the

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Speaker 7: Middle East is extremely worrying and it's critical further escalation

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Speaker 7: is avoided.

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Speaker 2: What more should we be doing on the world stage here?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think, first of all, I think mister Peter's

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Speaker 1: concern is to make sure he doesn't say anything or

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Speaker 1: do anything that will complicate removing New Zealand citizens from

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Speaker 1: the strife to l Middle East, which is a fair point.

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Speaker 1: But I do think we should be pushing for reform

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Speaker 1: of the UN Security Council. That seems to me a

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Speaker 1: strategic thing that New Zealand should do because at the moment,

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Speaker 1: the UN Security Council has been completely marginalized by the

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Speaker 1: fact that five countries decide matters the war and peace

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Speaker 1: in the world. Because they have the pair of veto,

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Speaker 1: they can block anything they don't like internationally, and that

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Speaker 1: means effectively that countries like the United States, Russia and

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Speaker 1: China they can Basically they've got tremendous freedom of autonomy.

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Speaker 1: They're not accountable. In short, who's going to hold the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration accountable for what they've just done other than

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Speaker 1: their own people within the United States and the reaction

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Speaker 1: of the rest of the world in diplomatic terms. But

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Speaker 1: I do think New Zealand should be looking at this

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Speaker 1: most recent episode and weighing it against those other trends

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Speaker 1: I've mentioned in the post nine to eleven world and

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Speaker 1: saying I think New Zeum decision makers should get together

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Speaker 1: with other small and middle powers which depend on a

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Speaker 1: rules based order and say we need to strengthen the

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Speaker 1: UN Security Council, We need to constrain the use of

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Speaker 1: the VETO, and we need to make the UN Security

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Speaker 1: Council capable of doing what it's supposed to do, which

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Speaker 1: is being a barrier to war. And also for Phillip's

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Speaker 1: responsibility of maintaining global peace and security. At the moment,

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Speaker 1: that institution won't do its job. It's dysfunctional. That worries

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Speaker 1: me a great deal because the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: is paying the price for the fact that the three

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Speaker 1: biggest law breakers on the planet are all permanent members

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Speaker 1: of the Security Council.

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Speaker 2: Well, that leads me on to my next question. I

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Speaker 2: was thinking, what is the point of the UN Security

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Speaker 2: Council and will there ever be any justice for what's

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Speaker 2: been happening not only in Ukraine, Gaza and now Israel

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Speaker 2: and Iran. I mean, will there be some kind of

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Speaker 2: Nuremberg trial at the end of this, like who actually

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Speaker 2: pays Well.

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Speaker 1: It won't happen unless people push for it. And at

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Speaker 1: some point the smaller and middle powers have to begin

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Speaker 1: to assert themselves on the international stage, and that takes courage.

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Speaker 1: Many liberal democracies are loath to do anything that was

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Speaker 1: critical of the United States because they fear for that

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Speaker 1: that would result in them being penalized economically or in

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Speaker 1: trade terms, and so they're a bit reluctant to do that.

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Speaker 1: But you know, your question is an appropriate one. In

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Speaker 1: a region where war crimes are being committed by multiple parties,

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Speaker 1: who's going to be held accountable for it? And let's

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Speaker 1: be quite frank, let's be quite clear about this. The

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Speaker 1: majority of countries are deeply unhappy about the fact that

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Speaker 1: we're slipping into a world where the unilateral use of

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Speaker 1: military power is becoming normalized. Traditional principles like non interference

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Speaker 1: and domestic affairs, the principal states, sovereignty, and the invilability

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Speaker 1: of borders, these are becoming steadily eroded. I know that

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Speaker 1: mister Trump, Shi Jingping, and mister Poutin won't be too

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Speaker 1: disturbed by that, because they probably see international law and

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Speaker 1: a rules based international order as a constraint on their action.

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Speaker 1: But that does not apply to the rest of the world.

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Speaker 1: So until we get leadership from smaller countries and middle powers,

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Speaker 1: I can't see the situation is going to change greatly, Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: And lastly, Robert, there have been a few moments in

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Speaker 2: the last few years where it does feel like we're

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Speaker 2: on the precipice of a World War three, and if

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Speaker 2: you go on social media at the moment especially, people

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Speaker 2: are acting like it is the end of the world.

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Speaker 2: Do you think people should be concerned here?

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Speaker 1: They should be concerned, definitely, But we have the keep

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Speaker 1: a sense of aportion about this. And the thing that

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Speaker 1: worries me a great deal is there is a great

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Speaker 1: deal of concern amongst ordinary people. I don't see a

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Speaker 1: great deal of concern amongst leaders in liberal democracies. How

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Speaker 1: many liberal democracies have spoken out forcefully about the action

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Speaker 1: that the Trump administration has taken. Many of them are

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Speaker 1: furious in private, but are they saying much in public?

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Speaker 1: Are they articulating the views of their own population on

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Speaker 1: this issue?

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining us, Robert.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You

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Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage

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Speaker 2: at enzedherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is

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Speaker 2: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also

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Speaker 2: our sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the front

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Speaker 2: page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and

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Speaker 2: tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.