1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: Our economy where geographically each region is that. We've got 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: the ASB regional scorecard this morning. Canterbury utperforms everyone as usual, jobs, spending, tourism, 3 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: getting up in the morning and tying issue laces. They 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: went on everything at Tiger and Wycatto we are jointed second, 5 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: Auckland is up to fourth, Wellington last. Nick Touughley is 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: the asb's chief economists anders with us. Nick, morning to you, 7 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: good morning. Is this going to change in the foreseeable future? 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: As Canterbury just the rock star, followed closely by the 9 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: South Island broadly. 10 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: Well, it's not going to remain there forever, although there 11 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: have been some times when it's been pretty strong for 12 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: reasons such as the all the earthquake rebuilding. But look 13 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 2: what we have seen over the last year or two 14 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,480 Speaker 2: is just that general theme of it. Those export focused 15 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 2: regions have tended to be quite resilient and I think 16 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 2: we'll see that continuing to see a degree, although that 17 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: rise of Auckland does point two Now the impact that 18 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: lower interest rates over the last couple of years have 19 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 2: started to have. 20 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: Right what about tourism, it seems to be on a 21 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: bit of a bounce back of those sort of area 22 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: is going to feel are feeling that at the moment. 23 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 2: We have done fairly well. Although the tourism recovery has 24 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 2: sort of petered out for a number of markets. We've 25 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 2: been very reliant on that Australian market where just after 26 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 2: the initial post COVID rebound where we saw grow from 27 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 2: other markets sort of flatten off a bit, it's continued 28 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:21,480 Speaker 2: to rise up. I think that's where a lot of 29 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: promise does lie because in these times of rising airfares, 30 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 2: worries about global security, we are close and we are 31 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 2: really cheap with where the exchange rate is, so that's 32 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: one thing that we'll hopefully offset some of those other negatives. 33 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 1: That Auckland resurgence is important even if you're not in Auckland, 34 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 1: because it's big numbers, it's big people, and it's a 35 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 1: big engine. So that moving moves everything, doesn't. 36 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 2: It It does help. You know, we've got sort of 37 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 2: roughly on about thirty five percent of the population and 38 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 2: economy based in Auckland, so it does matter for demand 39 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 2: around the rest of the country. And when you think 40 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: about how much of a share of goods within New 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 2: Zealand move through that sort of golden triangles, of like 42 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,240 Speaker 2: Auckland to like have a bay of plenty. There are 43 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: those significance like that. 44 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: What do you make of the comments overnight on the 45 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: war and the oil and the markets and or we 46 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 1: just don't know? 47 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 2: Look, I think quite frankly, we just don't know. It 48 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: sounds like there may have been some talks, although when 49 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 2: you read some of the comments, that doesn't sound like 50 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 2: Theiranians are as convinced that there have been been some talks. 51 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 2: I think we just need to be making sure we're 52 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 2: planning for all prices remaining high for a period. It 53 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 2: looks even if the war was to suddenly end in 54 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 2: this week, we're still going to face some disruption to 55 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,079 Speaker 2: oil supplies and high oil prices because you've just got 56 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: this global supply chain which needs to untangle itself, and 57 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 2: you've got actual damage that has happened to some of 58 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 2: the facilities. 59 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: Do you agree with it? I think it was standard 60 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 1: and paus and if it wasn't standard, in pause, it 61 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: was also the head of United Airlies. He said, even 62 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 1: if this thing's fixed tomorrow, he sees aviation at one 63 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 1: hundred bucks a barrel right through twenty Is that fair? 64 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 2: Well, we don't really see all prices going back to 65 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 2: where they were before this. You still got the issue 66 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 2: of squeeze in the short term. We don't know quite 67 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 2: what damage has been done to some of the refining 68 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: capacity in the Middle East where there's been a lot 69 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 2: of diesel and jet fuel coming through from there as well. 70 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 2: But you're also, i think likely have a lot more 71 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: focus on getting security of supply and that doesn't necessarily 72 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 2: mean that will be depending as much on Middle East 73 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 2: and fuel will be wanting to try and get it 74 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 2: from somewhere else. 75 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 1: Interesting Nick, all right, mate, appreciate it. Nick Tuffley, who's 76 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: the ASB Cheap Economist. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, 77 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, 78 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.