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Speaker 1: Will Donald Trump returned to the Oval office.

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Speaker 2: I'm continue to.

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Speaker 3: Or will Kamala Harris become the first female president of

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Speaker 3: the USA.

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Speaker 4: It is time to turn the page on the drama

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Speaker 4: and the carniflex.

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Speaker 3: The Race to two seventy is online with the latest

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Speaker 3: on the US presidential election. It's hither duplicy, allan drive

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Speaker 3: with one New Zealand let's get connected news talk said.

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Speaker 5: Be.

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Speaker 4: Right, good afternoon, coming up today. We're going to get

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Speaker 4: you across that US selection result. Going to talk to

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Speaker 4: the Democratic camp, also to Republicans, also find out what

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Speaker 4: a polster is seeing at the moment. We're going to

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Speaker 4: get your market reaction as well, because of course the

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Speaker 4: Aussie and Asian markets should still be open once the

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Speaker 4: result is clear. We also will deal with the surprisingly

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Speaker 4: good unemployment number here in New Zealand and find out

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Speaker 4: why it is that Westpac Bank is going harder on

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Speaker 4: our dairy farmers with their climate targets than they are

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Speaker 4: on the Aussie dairy farmers.

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Speaker 1: What heaver do for see alot O.

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Speaker 4: Let me get you up to speed on what is

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Speaker 4: happening in the US election. Now at this point it

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Speaker 4: is still really early and really have to Street it

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Speaker 4: as early. There's a lot yet to happen, but I

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Speaker 4: tell you what, it's feeling a hell of a lot

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Speaker 4: like it could be Trump's night. The New York Times

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Speaker 4: has just started forecasting a Trump win. They are running

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Speaker 4: a needle on their site and it basically swings one

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Speaker 4: way or the other depending on how things are going.

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Speaker 4: At the moment, it is leaning to Donald Trump, and

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Speaker 4: it's giving him a sixty nine percent chance of winning

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Speaker 4: the selection. None of the seven swing states have been

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Speaker 4: called just yet, but he is probably going to win,

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Speaker 4: at least according to the New York Times. Georgia, he's

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Speaker 4: got quite a lead there, so I say probably right.

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Speaker 4: And North Carolina, two swing states now potentially he will

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Speaker 4: win those, depending on how things are going, by a

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Speaker 4: lot more than the polls were predicting.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: A couple of other things have also gone his way already.

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Speaker 4: He's won Florida. Florida, to be fair, historically a swing state,

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Speaker 4: but you know, since he's been in the running in

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Speaker 4: twenty sixteen's has pretty solidly been a Trump's. But the

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Speaker 4: interesting thing here is that the Democrats were talking about

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Speaker 4: the possibility that they could flip Florida over the abortion

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Speaker 4: issue there that hasn't happened. He has won it by

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Speaker 4: a margin, and it is a huge margin. And if

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Speaker 4: that is a sign of the mood of the country

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Speaker 4: at the moment, he will be very happy. By the

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Speaker 4: end of tonight. He's also won Ohio again, a Trump

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Speaker 4: state like Florida, used to be a swing state but

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Speaker 4: has been his since twenty sixteen. Again won it by

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Speaker 4: a big margin. Now, as I say, really early days, okay,

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Speaker 4: he is absolutely ahead in the electoral College vote, and

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Speaker 4: every single outlet that I've had to look at as

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Speaker 4: counting him like eighty votes higher than Karmala Harris, but

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Speaker 4: that is to be expected. There usually is what they

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Speaker 4: call a red mirage really early in the evening, where

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Speaker 4: they get a lot of votes coming in for the

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Speaker 4: Republicans and then the Democrats catch up later on. Nothing

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Speaker 4: surprising has happened at the moment. Neither side has actually

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Speaker 4: managed to flip a state against the other. But so

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Speaker 4: far two swing states and two signal states have gone

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Speaker 4: for Trump, and early on it feels like it's going

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Speaker 4: his way. We're going to keep you posted throughout.

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Speaker 1: The show, Heather do for see Ellen nine.

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Speaker 4: Two nine two hit me with a standard techs fees apply.

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Speaker 4: Let's go now live to Carmala Harris HQ to Q

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Speaker 4: and a host and host of Saturday Morning's Jack tamed Jack.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Hello, Heather.

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Speaker 4: Are you getting any kind of a vibe from the

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Speaker 4: Democrats about whether they're feeling bummed out or optimistic?

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Speaker 6: Nah?

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Speaker 7: See that all the students here at Howard University in Washington, DC,

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Speaker 7: her alma mater, and all the students are flooding and

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Speaker 7: here to see her speak later on this evening. Although

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Speaker 7: will she speak, We'll all remember, of course, that Hillary

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Speaker 7: Clinton decided not to on election night when she found

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Speaker 7: herself in a potentially similar situation.

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Speaker 2: Eight years ago.

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Speaker 7: Look, I think you're right it's too early to read

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Speaker 7: too much into things, but I think your analysis is

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Speaker 7: also spot on.

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Speaker 2: At the stage.

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Speaker 7: You would much rather be teen Trump than teen Harris

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Speaker 7: at the moment, looking at those early numbers, especially around Georgia,

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Speaker 7: like they've put a lot of resources in that, the Democrats,

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Speaker 7: and I think looking at those numbers in Georgia, it's

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Speaker 7: not an unassailable lead Vietnam.

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Speaker 2: It's called Georgia.

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Speaker 7: For Trump to sept He's well ahead at the moment.

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Speaker 7: The early numbers in Pennsylvania are probably the only thing

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Speaker 7: giving the Democrats much reason for optimism. But even if

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Speaker 7: you go and look at some of the counties across

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Speaker 7: Michigan in Wisconsin, they've been comparing some of the numbers

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Speaker 7: that Harris is posting there with the numbers that Joe

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Speaker 7: Biden posted and across those counties, and they're just individual counties,

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Speaker 7: she doesn't seem to be performing as well at the stage,

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Speaker 7: which then would suggest that maybe she's not in the

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Speaker 7: strongest position right now. Like you say earlier in the night,

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Speaker 7: no one here is crying just yet. It's not too

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Speaker 7: somber or dark just yet. For certainly the people here

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Speaker 7: at Howard are going to be hoping that the results

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Speaker 7: starts in the way.

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Speaker 4: So Ap, I mean Pennsylvania, what are you looking at?

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Speaker 4: Are you still see Pennsylvania ahead? Because I'm looking at

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Speaker 4: AP's count AP's got on on fifty point three in

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Speaker 4: her now on forty eight point eight, so he's got an.

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Speaker 7: I haven't seen that, lads, I haven't seen it. Haven't

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Speaker 7: seen those letters, the latest updates because they sort of

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Speaker 7: dropped them in matches, right, So there you go. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: she was leading, she was leading on the early numbers

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Speaker 7: out of Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: They'll bum her out.

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Speaker 7: Oh my god, if they lose Pennsylvania, good night, nurse.

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Speaker 2: Do we just pack up?

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Speaker 4: If they lose Pennsylvania, Jack, do we just go right?

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Speaker 4: That's that, we'll call it and we'll go home.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's whether or not they can call it tonight. Right.

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Speaker 7: So the problem is that they might they might have

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Speaker 7: eighty five percent of the boat counters in Pennsylvania, but

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Speaker 7: those last votes are taking a long time, maybe the

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Speaker 7: mail and ballot something like that, taking a long time

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Speaker 7: to actually add them up. So when they finally do

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Speaker 7: call Pennsylvania, we're able to pack up and call it

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Speaker 7: something a recond room front.

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Speaker 4: What do you make of Trump be leading in Virginia?

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Speaker 4: So they've got amateur We're how far through are they?

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Speaker 4: They're about sixty four percent so done about about two

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Speaker 4: thirds of the count there. Donald Trump is on forty

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Speaker 4: nine point seven and she's on forty eight point seven.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, it's interesting. I'm sure the breakdown favors like the

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Speaker 7: Trump support favors the rural parts of Virginia over those

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Speaker 7: you know, the areas that border on Washington, d C.

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Speaker 7: I mean, the you know, Washington, DC is a very

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Speaker 7: very Democrat leaning compared to most other cities in the US.

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Speaker 7: But yeah, I mean, that's that is very interesting that

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Speaker 7: it's you know, like I say, I think I think

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Speaker 7: that the Trump team will be very pleased and interesting

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Speaker 7: that especially in Georgia, perhaps more than anywhere else at

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Speaker 7: the moment, although Virginia as well. He is comfortably out

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Speaker 7: doing what the polls suggested. And surely we thought after

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Speaker 7: two previous elections the polsters might have a good steer

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Speaker 7: on how much sensity to be adjusting their models to

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Speaker 7: account for Donald Trump. But I don't know, maybe maybe

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Speaker 7: those numbers again early days are suggesting that they haven't

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Speaker 7: appropriately adjusted them for the Trump effect or Jack It's going.

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Speaker 4: To be exciting. I bet you were bet you were

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Speaker 4: sure at the Trump HQ tonight based on this, I.

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Speaker 7: Oh, yeah, I mean it's well, it's always My theory

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Speaker 7: is I'm here with my wonderful colleague, logan US correspondent. Well,

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Speaker 7: he gets DIBs, he gets DIBs and so and I

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Speaker 7: just do what I'm told, and so that I do have.

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Speaker 2: I honestly think I have a real habit of this.

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Speaker 7: My fourth US election I've never been there on looks

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Speaker 7: to night when a candidate has won. So on with

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden four years ago, and he remember he was like,

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Speaker 7: oh it's looking girl. I didn't call it, So I

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Speaker 7: don't know. Maybe there's the tame factor as well.

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Speaker 4: Maybe maybe, yeah, maybe that is the thing. Jack, Maybe

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Speaker 4: you are the key influence. I appreciate it. Look after

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Speaker 4: yourself enjoyed Jack dam Q and a host host of

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Speaker 4: Saturday Mornings.

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Speaker 8: Listen.

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Speaker 4: We're going to go to David Seymore next because look,

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Speaker 4: it is a funny old day, so we're trying to

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Speaker 4: make space for the most important news the day. Normally

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Speaker 4: would be talking about sport next, but we need to

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Speaker 4: talk to David Seymore about what's going on with the

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Speaker 4: Treaty Principal's bills. So we're going to do that. Just

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Speaker 4: want to really get you across North Carolina. The Democrats

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Speaker 4: apparently are feeling pretty optimistic there because North Carolina they

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Speaker 4: were doing pretty well earlier on in the evening. But

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Speaker 4: currently the vote count has Donald Trump ahead. He's on

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Speaker 4: fifty two, Kamala's on forty seven percent. Is like seventy

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Speaker 4: percent of the votes are in CNN's Pamela Brown has

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Speaker 4: been told by North Carolina officials there are still so

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Speaker 4: many votes to count in the state.

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Speaker 9: It's going to get closers some more time to get

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Speaker 9: results from across North Carolina's one hundred counties. He said

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Speaker 9: that this is going to be close. It's going to

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Speaker 9: take some time. There are counties that haven't reported yet

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Speaker 9: that are read and there are counties that haven't reported

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Speaker 9: yet that are blue.

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Speaker 3: Quarter past four, who will take the White House results

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Speaker 3: and analysis of the US election on hither duplessy Alan

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Speaker 3: drive with one New Zealand let's get connected the news talk.

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Speaker 1: Sa'd be.

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Speaker 4: All right it is eighteen passbole are going to get

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Speaker 4: you across the U S Selection as any more information comes

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Speaker 4: to hand. Right now, the government's planning to introduce the

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Speaker 4: Treaty Principle's Bill tomorrow. Now this is surprising because it

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Speaker 4: is a week and a half earlier than expected. Act

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Speaker 4: Leader David Seymour is with us on this right now.

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Speaker 4: Hey David, Hey, you ever feels very much like you

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Speaker 4: guys are doing this while we're distracted by the U

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Speaker 4: S Selection?

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Speaker 2: Is that?

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Speaker 4: What's up?

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Speaker 10: I'll tell you one thing about conspiracies and government here

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Speaker 10: are all sorts of things that we're supposedly up to, and

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Speaker 10: I thaid man, I wish we were that organized.

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Speaker 4: Well, hang on because it already winds. As he was

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Speaker 4: saying this morning that there was a meeting yesterday in

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Speaker 4: Parliament where you would all supposed to discuss the business

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Speaker 4: of the House and this was not at all flagged

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Speaker 4: as happening this week. Why was that?

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Speaker 10: I guess it's probably rather than doesn't have a huge

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Speaker 10: amount of experience. In fact, it normally doesn't pay a

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Speaker 10: lot of respect to Parliament. I've been in that Business

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Speaker 10: Committee for six years and the government doesn't always tell

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Speaker 10: you everything. So there's nothing unusual here. There's just people

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Speaker 10: trying to make mountains from moleholes.

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Speaker 4: Okay, So why is it coming in earlier than we're expecting?

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Speaker 10: I guess the question is why did you expect it

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Speaker 10: at a certain time. Actually, things change all the time.

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Speaker 10: The reason people expected it on a day is that

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Speaker 10: the waiting a tribunal demanded a date, which is very unusual,

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Speaker 10: so we gave them one, and states often do this

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Speaker 10: one change. So really, this has got to be the

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Speaker 10: craziest mounted out of a mole hall ever because the

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Speaker 10: reality is you're in parliament, it's chaos. Sometimes you get

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Speaker 10: things done early.

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Speaker 2: You go early.

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Speaker 10: Sometimes it takes longer, you do it later. Normally no

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Speaker 10: one noticed this because you don't have waiting ea, you

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Speaker 10: demanding live updates on every date and expectation, and you

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Speaker 10: don't have lowerd eocity. You pitching in with his reckons

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Speaker 10: despite having with the greatest respect to them, pretty omitted

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Speaker 10: experience of parliament.

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Speaker 4: David, what do you make the white tonguey Tribunal leaking

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Speaker 4: the information and elusing everyone that you're going to table

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Speaker 4: it tomorrow.

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Speaker 10: Well, it's pretty saddening, to be honest. I mean, ultimately,

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Speaker 10: in a country, you need trust in your institutions and

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Speaker 10: you need people to act honorably. So they say, you

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Speaker 10: have to give us this information. It's your duty and

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Speaker 10: its respect and vomity and all of these other things.

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Speaker 10: And then we pay our part and we find when

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Speaker 10: we give them information, within an hour we have the

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Speaker 10: media ringing up saying we have been told this and

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Speaker 10: of course we expected that.

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Speaker 4: Did they tell because I thought that they told lawyers.

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Speaker 4: Did they tell lawyers who told the media, or did

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Speaker 4: they just go directly and tell the media.

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Speaker 10: Well, you'd know better than anyone either. The journalists aren't

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Speaker 10: going to reveal their sources, so I guess that secret

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Speaker 10: dies with them.

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Speaker 4: And when you told the White Pngy Tribunal, did you

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Speaker 4: tell them on the understanding that they would retain that

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Speaker 4: information and not share it.

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Speaker 10: Look, I'm not sure, but you'd have to assume that

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Speaker 10: if somebody told you something, then it would be for

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Speaker 10: a certain purpose and it would be up to the

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Speaker 10: person who had the information to announce it publicly. In

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Speaker 10: any event, through their processes, the information got out within

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Speaker 10: an hour. Whether it was them, whether it was lawyers

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Speaker 10: who were acting for applicants who were informed of details

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Speaker 10: of the case, it's not entirely clear. But one of

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Speaker 10: the results of them demanding the information and seeing it

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Speaker 10: get into the public demand so rapidly is that they're

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Speaker 10: actually are road trust and institutions, including their own. That's

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Speaker 10: a bit saddening in a way.

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Speaker 4: Now do you expect comedy from them in the same

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Speaker 4: way that you would from a stock standard court.

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Speaker 10: Well, that they're not a court, So often people say

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Speaker 10: you have to fully respect them. They're actually out of court.

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Speaker 10: Understanding commission of inquiry that's been going for forty eight years.

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Speaker 10: I think it's just good to treat people well. Wherever

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Speaker 10: you can, I've always bring someone who believes in the

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Speaker 10: basic respects and dignity for each individual. That's why I'm

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Speaker 10: opposed to the Treaty being cast as a partnership, because

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Speaker 10: when you say the Treaty is a partnership between races

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Speaker 10: which the member of which group, your group membership becomes

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Speaker 10: more important than your basic human dignity.

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Speaker 4: And just listen very quickly, are you guys planning to

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Speaker 4: reform the tribunal? Have you actually got this across the

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Speaker 4: line with the big guns in the NATS.

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Speaker 10: Well, I assume you said the big guns and the Nats.

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Speaker 4: In the NATS, the pop dogs in the NATS.

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Speaker 10: Well, you know for the very Democratic party. Look, you

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Speaker 10: got to remember that that's not an act policy, that's

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Speaker 10: the New Zealand First policy. But I mean, all i'd

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Speaker 10: say is that you know it's something that that supports

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Speaker 10: as we support all of the different policies that we've

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Speaker 10: signed up to through coalition. And I frankly think it's

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Speaker 10: a really sad time because the Whites only Tribunal and

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Speaker 10: the Treaty settlement process have been enormously positive. I think

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Speaker 10: it's a point of pride for New Zealand. In fact,

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Speaker 10: I don't think many countries would have gone through the

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Speaker 10: kind of civilized process of reconciliation that New Zealand has

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Speaker 10: in the last thirty years or so with treaty settlements. However,

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Speaker 10: they've now become so politicized that I think they've actually

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Speaker 10: diminished their own manner, and that will only lend strength

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Speaker 10: to the arm of those in government who would like

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Speaker 10: to see them substantially reformed.

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Speaker 4: Quite right, Hey, David, thanks very much, appreciate it. David

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Speaker 4: Seymour as part of Leeder, will come back to this

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Speaker 4: later on the program. To Georgia, Zach Manifold, an election

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Speaker 4: supervisor in one of the counties, Gwinnett County and Georgia, says,

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Speaker 4: a whole lot of votes are about to be reported,

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Speaker 4: and this is a county where Trump is currently ahead.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, about three hundred and twenty thousand advance and.

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Speaker 8: In person and absody by mail.

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Speaker 12: They're coming.

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Speaker 4: In Georgia, Trump is at eighty eight cent of the

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Speaker 4: votes counted. He's at fifty one point three percent, and

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Speaker 4: Karmala Harris is at forty eight percent. So he's probably

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Speaker 4: going to take that one. Four twenty four, who will.

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Speaker 3: Take the White House Results and analysis of the US

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Speaker 3: election on Heather duple c Alan Drive with one New

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Speaker 3: Zealand Let's get connected.

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Speaker 1: The news talk said, be.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the Trump victory. Soon, tell Barry to suck eggs.

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Speaker 4: We'll have Barry on shortly. We can tell him that

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Speaker 4: to his face. Shortly on that. Remember, there was that

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Speaker 4: big kerfuffle earlier this week about the Iowa poll that

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Speaker 4: had completely flipped things for Donald Trump. He'd been leading

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Speaker 4: by eighteen percent when Biden was still there in about June,

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Speaker 4: and then all of a sudden, Karmela was leading by

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Speaker 4: three percent. Just in the days ahead of the election.

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Speaker 4: Everybody thought, oh, yeah, we go, Karmela is going to

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Speaker 4: win well. Ioways being counted at about forty two percent

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Speaker 4: of votes. Now that's that's less than fifty so that's

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Speaker 4: very early. But Trump's leading fifty three to forty six

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Speaker 4: on that one. So we'll see how that one goes.

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Speaker 4: For that pole, we're going to talk to Scott Brown,

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Speaker 4: who's a Republican and a former US ambassador. He was

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Speaker 4: the US ambassador, the Centerfold Ambassador, Remember, is going to

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Speaker 4: be this after the news. Just need to get you

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Speaker 4: across this. The flight upgrade scandal in Australia, it's got

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Speaker 4: more ridiculous what's happened now because remember, first of all

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Speaker 4: it was Albow who's in trouble for upgrades and now

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Speaker 4: and then Bridget McKenzie got in trouble. Now Bridget McKenzie

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Speaker 4: is the opposition transport spokes woman and she was having

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Speaker 4: a crack at Elbow. She said I've never taken an upgrade.

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Speaker 4: Well turns out actually she did. Well now it turns

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Speaker 4: out might have taken more than a dozen, because she

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Speaker 4: wrote to all she was like I want a bit

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Speaker 4: of check, wrote to all the airlines, asked them did

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Speaker 4: I get any upgrades from you? And they were like yeah,

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Speaker 4: more than twelve. So apparently she is at some stage,

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Speaker 4: if not today, going to have to declare all of those,

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Speaker 4: which is a little embarrassing, isn't it.

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Speaker 13: Headlines Next.

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Speaker 3: Life coverage to the US election as the votes accounted,

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Speaker 3: it's hither duplicy Alan drive with one New Zealand let's

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Speaker 3: get connected news talks.

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Speaker 1: That'd be.

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Speaker 4: Right, Barry Soap is going to that's hard, a hard

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Speaker 4: on the old years isn't it. Jays Barry Soap is

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Speaker 4: going to be with us in ten minutes time and

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Speaker 4: absolutely keeping you across all of the election coverages it

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Speaker 4: comes across from the States. Just back home some things

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Speaker 4: that are happening that are important. The unemployment number today

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Speaker 4: was a big deal and actually something of a surprise,

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Speaker 4: wasn't It came in at four point eight percent, which

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Speaker 4: is quite a bit lower. I mean, it doesn't feel

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Speaker 4: a lot lower than five percent, but that it for economists.

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Speaker 4: That's quite a lot lower than the five percent that

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Speaker 4: pretty much everybody, including the Reserve Bank, was expecting. But

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Speaker 4: what they're thinking is that doesn't mean that people haven't

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Speaker 4: lost their jobs. What it means is that people are

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Speaker 4: not being counted in that number because they've already had

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Speaker 4: off to Australia, so they are no longer in the country.

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Speaker 4: They're not sitting here on the doll they they've gone

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Speaker 4: over there. They've got themselves a job. Right now, the

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Speaker 4: most important thing about this number is what does this

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Speaker 4: do to the official cash rate decision that's going to

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Speaker 4: come down the pipeline later this month. We'll have a

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Speaker 4: chat to Brad Olson about it. At about quarter past

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Speaker 4: five right now, it's twenty three away from five.

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Speaker 3: It's the world wires on news talks, they'd be drive.

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Speaker 1: Right well.

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Speaker 4: Both US presidential candidates have been hitting the phones to

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Speaker 4: get the vote out. Today, Carmela popped into one of

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Speaker 4: her phone banks to lend a hand.

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Speaker 10: Caroline cal Carolyn can hi, Carolyn, Hi?

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Speaker 5: Hi are you?

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Speaker 4: And according to CNN's Caitlin Collins, Trump's been phoning people too.

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Speaker 14: I was told that he was just on the phone,

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Speaker 14: calling into radio stations inside Pennsylvania urging people to get

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Speaker 14: out and make sure they get to the polls and vote.

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Speaker 4: And they aren't the only ones. Here's a voter in

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Speaker 4: North Carolina.

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Speaker 15: I wasn't going to vote at all until my girlfriend

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Speaker 15: was blowing on my phone telling me to go vote

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Speaker 15: and if I did, and she was going to wreak

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Speaker 15: up with me.

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Speaker 4: So now I'm here, good woman. Broadcast to Pierce Morgan

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Speaker 4: thinks that Donald Trump will be victorious at the end,

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Speaker 4: but not by a lot I.

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Speaker 8: Have never seen.

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Speaker 16: I've studied American politics for a long time. I've never

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Speaker 16: seen polls at a national and swing state level that

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Speaker 16: have been so close. My gut feeling, having been in

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Speaker 16: America now for a week and having been in Los

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Speaker 16: Angeles recently, is that I think Trump is going to win.

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Speaker 4: And finally, scientists in California have genetically modified male mosquitos

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Speaker 4: to make them deaf. Now, what is important about this

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Speaker 4: is that deaf mutant mosquitos can't mate because mossie blokes

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Speaker 4: find a partner by listening for attractive sounding wing beats

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Speaker 4: from the lady mosquitos. That's how they know that they're

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Speaker 4: a bit sexy. The wings sound nice, and the deaf

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Speaker 4: bugs can't hear the sexy wings, so just not interested. Now,

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Speaker 4: the scientists hope that they can use this new technique

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Speaker 4: to keep mosquito populations down and prevent the spread of disease.

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Speaker 3: International correspondence with Ends and Eye insh runs peace of

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Speaker 3: mind for New Zealand business.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: Well, Donald Trump's been pretty confident, hasn't he That he's

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Speaker 4: got the selection in the bag in the last few days,

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Speaker 4: and it looks like it might be panning out that

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Speaker 4: way for him today. Scott Brown was the US Ambassador

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Speaker 4: to New Zealand. He was appointed by Donald trumpet he's

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Speaker 4: with us now, Scott.

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Speaker 5: Hello, Well, hello stranger, how are you.

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Speaker 4: I'm very well, thank you. It's very good to talk

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Speaker 4: to you. Is this an evening that you were enjoying

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Speaker 4: so far?

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Speaker 17: Well, yeah, it's been good, certainly, something that I'm used to.

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Speaker 17: It seems very similar to twenty sixteen. I've been obviously

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Speaker 17: doing the analyzing and making calls like everybody else.

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Speaker 5: And the thing that's different about this one is.

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Speaker 17: That he has brought a broad base, the pop the

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Speaker 17: Latino votes, Hispanic votes, Black American male votes, female votes,

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Speaker 17: Black American female votes, they're all up dramatically, and she's

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Speaker 17: underperforming in a lot of those.

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Speaker 5: So called blue wall states.

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Speaker 17: And Iowa was just called and you know, the Iowa

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Speaker 17: newspaper had him down like thirteen.

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Speaker 5: They just called it.

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Speaker 17: So I believe he's going to win North Carolina soon

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Speaker 17: and then Georgia, and I believe he'll win Pennsylvania too,

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Speaker 17: and then it's really it's pretty much over. Then she

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Speaker 17: would have to just go and win everything. And it

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Speaker 17: doesn't look at President's up in Wisconsin as well, and

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Speaker 17: if it's even close in New Mexico, do.

441
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 4: You think, I mean, do they call Pennsylvania tonight or

442
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 4: is that a tomorrow thing?

443
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,920
Speaker 17: You know, they learned from last time that people aren't

444
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 17: going to wait weeks. I think it'll be earlier in

445
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 17: the morning. But things seem to be moving along pretty well.

446
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 17: There's been very few problems because everyone is getting a

447
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 17: little bit fed up. You have, for example, here in Florida.

448
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 17: I'm actually at our place here in Florida. I mean

449
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 17: they have they processed the votes was about three or

450
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 17: four million votes in an hour and a half. And

451
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 17: yet you have other states that, oh, it's.

452
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 5: Going to you know, Arizona, and others, Oh.

453
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 17: It's going to take you know, at least a week.

454
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 17: Why why hire more people? Just that's where the confidence

455
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 17: in the voat with people is really a problem.

456
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 5: They don't trust the process. If they could just do

457
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 5: it right, it would be great.

458
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,879
Speaker 4: Scott, So what's gone his way? Why is it explain

459
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 4: to me how it is that everybody appears to have

460
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 4: been like, well, this race is really tight, when actually

461
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 4: right now it doesn't look tight at all.

462
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 17: Well, if you go to the if you're a better

463
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 17: you go to the betting site, sees that he started

464
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 17: out of fifty two percent, he's up at ninety one percent.

465
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 17: Even the New York Times has him winning it as well.

466
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 17: Bottom line is you know she came in late. People

467
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 17: don't like what they did to Joe Biden, whether you

468
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 17: like them or not, you know, they forced them out.

469
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 17: She didn't any vote, she was one of the she

470
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 17: didn't even get to two percent when she was running

471
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 17: for president. And I think her biggest problem, and I've

472
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 17: said this for months now, is that she didn't take

473
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 17: a tough interview except for Brett bher and I thought

474
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 17: she did fairly well there, and she wasn't She wasn't

475
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 17: ready for prime time when it came to actually answering questions.

476
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 5: You know, what are you going to do about the economy? Well,

477
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 5: let me just stop by this. You know, I'm from

478
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 5: the middle class, a big deal.

479
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,240
Speaker 17: That doesn't that's not that's not how you're going to

480
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,359
Speaker 17: do it. And so avoiding interviews really not having any answers.

481
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 17: I'm not doing a thing on the border, letting fifteen

482
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 17: million people into our country who don't belong here, giving

483
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,879
Speaker 17: them free stuff all over the place over our vet.

484
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 4: Explain to me how, once again, people and talking politic

485
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 4: specifically about commentations in the media, how did they not

486
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 4: see this.

487
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 17: Coming Because they're blind, they don't listen to the people.

488
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 17: They're in their high towers and they don't come down

489
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 17: and actually go to the local diners or or you know,

490
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 17: speak to people who had under President Trump, you know

491
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 17: a couple of thousand dollars of savings in their pocket

492
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 17: and the event of emergency. Now they don't have any

493
00:22:55,760 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 17: Their credit cards are over leveraged, their mortgages are underwater.

494
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 17: Are there a stack of bills on there on their table?

495
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 17: That some of our cities are unsafe? We have gangs

496
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 17: taking over housing complexes in Colorado? Are you kidding me?

497
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 17: Is just upside down. And that's why quite frankly, she's

498
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 17: not gonna win.

499
00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: Hey, Scott, so if your man wins, do you get

500
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 4: another cool job?

501
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: Yeah?

502
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 5: Listen, you know it's up to him. I'm always willing

503
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 5: to serve.

504
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 17: It was an honor, I mean, meeting you, not Barry,

505
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 17: but meeting you and actually, you know, really getting to

506
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 17: know New Zealand.

507
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 4: And really, Scott, you're gonna love this. It is ripping

508
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 4: berries ninety that Trump is winning today. He just is

509
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 4: so beside himself.

510
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 5: I wish I was there, man, I wish.

511
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 3: I was there.

512
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 17: I could just like torture him, which I can still do.

513
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 4: Well, you are, but just by existing as one of

514
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: Trump's guys, you are torturing him. Scott, It's so good

515
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 4: to talk to you, mate. Look at yourself and enjoy

516
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 4: the rest of the evening that Scott Brown, former US

517
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 4: Ambassador to New Zealand. One of the first times that

518
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 4: Barry's so Oper met Scott Brown, he turned up with

519
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 4: a Donald Trump T shirt on to taunt Scott Brown,

520
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 4: as if that would be some sort of like a

521
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 4: horrific thing for Scott, who is a trump Man. Of course,

522
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 4: Scott just loved the whole experience, didn't They Listen over

523
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 4: in Nevada and Barry will be thus shortly and it

524
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 4: is ripping as night, he trust me. Multiple polling places

525
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 4: in Nevada have had weights of over an hour. The

526
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 4: polls were scheduled to close at about four o'clock our time,

527
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 4: so that's forty five minutes ago. So voters who are

528
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 4: in line at the time that polls the scheduled to

529
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 4: close are still able to vote. They just have to

530
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 4: stay in the line despite the long wait time. And

531
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 4: Donald Trump has been people has been telling people rather

532
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 4: to do that and stay in line.

533
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 8: Our Republicans we're doing really well.

534
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 15: If you're in line, Stay in line, don't let them

535
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:44,360
Speaker 15: take you off that line.

536
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,199
Speaker 1: Vote, Stay in the line. They can't do anything about it.

537
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: And vote.

538
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 12: We're going to win it big, thank you.

539
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 4: And as Scott just said, and as texts are telling

540
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 4: me right now, they have called Iowa for Donald Trump.

541
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 4: This is despite that poll that said that she was

542
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 4: going to win the woo Pole earlier this week. Donald

543
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 4: Trump's on fifty six percent against her forty two point

544
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 4: six percent, with fifty seven percent of the count in Iowa.

545
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 4: And that's his state.

546
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: Now, Quarter to Politics with centric credit. Check your customers

547
00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 1: and get payments.

548
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 4: Certainty, very so, per senior political correspondence with us Now Barry.

549
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 6: Good afternoon, and what a wonderful afternoon it is. Look,

550
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is such a wonderful man. The Americans have

551
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 6: a lot of faith in them. Clearly, the New York

552
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 6: Times is now saying that he'll be likely the likely

553
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 6: winner eighty five percent from the New York Times, and

554
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 6: that would give him two hundred and ninety seven electoral

555
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 6: College seats. He only needs two hundred and seventy. So look, so.

556
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 4: We're going to find out tonight, aren't we.

557
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 6: I would imagine if this trend continues, but don't forget

558
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 6: there's still a lot of counting to be done. And

559
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 6: you know the Democrat count always comes in late. So

560
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 6: this is certainly a reflection that Donald Trump's got a

561
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 6: pretty strong.

562
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 4: So just explain to me, Barry, how big is the

563
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: rip in your ninety right now? How much do you

564
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 4: hate this? And are you going to accept that you

565
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 4: are firmly part of the political elite, aren't you?

566
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 6: No, I wouldn't think so at all.

567
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 4: Lost so of loss it's going to happen.

568
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 6: It wasn't deep analysis, as I said to you at

569
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 6: the start. It was I still can't believe that more

570
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,679
Speaker 6: than half the population in America would go out and

571
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 6: vote for a man like Donald Trump. But you've got

572
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 6: to give it to Trump. He's extraordinary when you think

573
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 6: about his survivability. And I remember when I was there

574
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 6: in twenty sixteen, on the night, we're at the Clinton

575
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 6: headquarters because Trump canceled our invitation to his headquarters in

576
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 6: New York. So we went to Clinton.

577
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 12: Yeah, and at about three.

578
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 6: In the morning, John Podesta, who pain chairman, came out

579
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 6: told about four or five thousand people who had been

580
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 6: gathered all night. He had worked for her tirelessly in

581
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 6: the campaignmpaign that she wasn't going to concede defeat, and

582
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 6: so they started filing out. I talked to a number

583
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 6: of them. They were very disappointed, and to me, it

584
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 6: just goes to show the sort of person that Hillary

585
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 6: Clinton was the wrong Democrat to be put up. Same then,

586
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 6: on the way back to my hotel in the cab,

587
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 6: what did you do? She conceded defeat and I thought

588
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 6: it was despicable behavior. But Kamala Harris would, of course

589
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 6: she would. She's nothing like Hillary Clinton, and in a

590
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 6: way she was thrust into the job. You'd have to

591
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 6: say because of Joe Biden and.

592
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 4: His didn't want U.

593
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 6: No, no, you can't do that. But you know, the

594
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 6: idea of going out and getting another Democratic nominee in

595
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 6: the time that was available to them was pretty much.

596
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 4: So what was the being did you agree to the

597
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 4: three thousand dollar bet with me?

598
00:27:58,720 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 17: On?

599
00:27:58,960 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 3: Well?

600
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 6: No, I've agreed to an number of bets hither and

601
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 6: I might be losing quite a lot of them. But look,

602
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 6: it's interesting if Donald Trump does win. I just looked

603
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 6: at the history books. There was a chap called Grover Cleveland.

604
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 6: Now he lost the White House in eighteen eighty two.

605
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 4: Yes, then he was the only.

606
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 6: President in history to come back four years later.

607
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 4: So take a four year break and then down then

608
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 4: win again. He won the Trump now.

609
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 6: Who won three subsequent elections. So is there for another

610
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 6: twelve years. I don't think Donald Trump's going to pull

611
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 6: that one off, but nevertheless he will become the first

612
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 6: and more than one hundred years.

613
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 4: I don't think you're in any position to be making

614
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:48,959
Speaker 4: any predictions today. Well, who knows, maybe Donald Trump does. Hey, Barry,

615
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 4: just back home quickly. What do you make of the tree,

616
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 4: the White Tonguey tribunal leaking, the fact that the Treaty

617
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: Principal's Bill is going to Parliament?

618
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 6: Well, look, I think the White Tonguy tribunalist it hardly

619
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 6: comes as anything. You that they are quite political, And

620
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 6: I've got to say, in Parliament this afternoon it was

621
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 6: as though the bill had already been introduced, meaning that

622
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 6: the Prime Minister was in the hot seat, fielding questions

623
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 6: from the Maori Party co leader Rivalry Waite to tea,

624
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 6: with Chris Luxon saying the government will govern for all

625
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 6: New Zealanders. Any pretense though that the Waitangi Tribunal isn't

626
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 6: political has been removed by its actions on the bill.

627
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 6: But Luxon was adamant about National and the Government's position

628
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 6: when being questioned by YT.

629
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 18: They've got a government that's here to advance outcomes for

630
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 18: Maori and non Mary.

631
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 19: How can you sleep that night knowing that the violence

632
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 19: of the treaty principles built is going to have a discriminatory,

633
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 19: intergenerational impact on our.

634
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 18: Mobbiner, I disagree with the characterization of that question.

635
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 19: How many apologies as a state willing to make while

636
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 19: they continue to inflict violence and abuse on our people

637
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 19: whilst continuously breaching tidity.

638
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 18: Or wait to again? I disagree with the characterization of

639
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 18: that statement.

640
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 19: Oh can you stand in his house and support a

641
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 19: bill which the way Tangy Tribunal has described as quote

642
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 19: the worst did me emphasize the worst, most comprehensive breach

643
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 19: of the treaty to tility and modern time end quote?

644
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 18: We're not supporting the bill in second reading he.

645
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 6: Was sort of being worn down by the questions. I think,

646
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 6: and you know, it's a difficult situation for the National

647
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 6: Party to be in this note out about that. But

648
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 6: the way tangy tribunal. I think should reflect on the

649
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 6: position that it's played in all of this.

650
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 4: Barry, thanks very much, enjoy your evening. Enjoy your evening,

651
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 4: very sober senior political correspondence even away from five.

652
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 1: Digging into the issues that affect you. The mic asking breakfast.

653
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 20: Are you bullish or full of apprehension?

654
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 21: All pretty good of it before we are.

655
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 20: It is a pitiful mess for such a large, influential

656
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 20: and wealthy country.

657
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 22: I'm hearing in Transylvania they want to have an answer

658
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 22: until two work three days from now.

659
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 20: That's not true. Paper ballads are cumbersome and slow. Essentially,

660
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 20: he's full of bullshit, but a lot of the BS

661
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 20: is show and the Liberals won't see it. Back tomorrow

662
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 20: at six am the Mike Hosking Breakfast with the Rain

663
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 20: Driver of the Lahn News.

664
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: Talk z B.

665
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 4: Here the thanks for the interview with Scott Brown. Big

666
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 4: difference to that moron Gilbert, who is with Mike this

667
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 4: morning to ask you that moron is going to be

668
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 4: with us Mark next because we're going to the Democrat

669
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 4: camp and we're going to the Republican camp to try

670
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 4: to get a sense from each of them as to

671
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 4: how they're feeling at the moment. On the New York

672
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 4: Times forecast, they are now forecasting that it's eighty seven

673
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 4: percent chance of victory to Trump. Likely that he wins

674
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 4: the next step up is very likely. So he's basically there,

675
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 4: and they are now they're estimating he's going to Remember

676
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 4: he needs two hundred and seventy Electoral College votes, they

677
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 4: are now calling that he will get three hundred. That

678
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 4: says to me that we find out tonight. We're not

679
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 4: waiting days for this outcome. We're going to find out tonight.

680
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 4: I think three hundred according to the New York Times.

681
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 4: And they also think he could take out the pop

682
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 4: vote as well, so that that's a mandate, isn't it.

683
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: Hither to answer your question as to how many commentators

684
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 4: could have called it so wrong, it's it's woke, lefty

685
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 4: media who think they can influence the outcome. Look, I

686
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 4: don't I think that that's there's an element of that,

687
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 4: but I don't think that's the whole thing. I think

688
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 4: part of what's going on here is, Look, Trump's offensive, right,

689
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 4: he is, He's gross, and he makes gross jokes and

690
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 4: he just says like he's outrageous. He says things that

691
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 4: are just clearly not true, and he does offensive things,

692
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 4: and he's a convicted felon, and he sort of offends

693
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,239
Speaker 4: all of your sensibilities. And I just think that I

694
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 4: think that he I just think that It's like, it's

695
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:39,840
Speaker 4: what Barry was trying to say before, he just can't

696
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 4: imagine that anybody would vote for this guy. But that's

697
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 4: failing to understand why people vote for this guy, right that,

698
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 4: because really the Democrats think the most important thing is

699
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 4: that you break a glass ceiling. You've got a black

700
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 4: woman there. Actually the most important thing is what is

701
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 4: this person going to do to make my life easier

702
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 4: so I can raise my children? And that's where Trump

703
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 4: just comes straight through and gives people the message. Anyway, listen,

704
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 4: we have lots to get through. This is a lot

705
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 4: happening over there also a lot happening in New Zealand.

706
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 4: So next we're off to the Republicans and Democrats and

707
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: then our unemployment number news talks edb.

708
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 3: The folks are coming in. Who will lead the free

709
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 3: world for the next four years? It's hither duplass Ellen

710
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: drive with one New Zealand Let's get connected news talks edb.

711
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: All right, good afternoon. It's looking like it's an uphill

712
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 4: battle for Kamala Harris from here, and pretty sweet for

713
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. Donald Trump is leading in all of the

714
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 4: swing states bar one, which is Nevada because counting hasn't

715
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 4: actually started there yet. And it's a very happy time

716
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: at Trump HQ.

717
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 14: You can hear at Donald Trump's favorite song, Ymca is

718
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 14: playing behind me, and certainly the audience here has gotten

719
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 14: a lot livelier in just the last forty five minutes

720
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 14: or so, Jake, We've been here for several hours, and

721
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 14: that matches the feeling back at mar A Lago, where

722
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 14: we are hearing from Trump campaign sources that they are

723
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 14: feeling a lot more. It's mystic about these numbers.

724
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 4: Political commentator Dominic caunters with us Dominic Heloi.

725
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 5: Heather, good afternoon. Is so nice to be here with

726
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 5: you now.

727
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 4: It is good to talk to you. I see New

728
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 4: York Times has got him on an eighty eight chance

729
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 4: of a win.

730
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:17,879
Speaker 22: Had you says yes, Well, Heather, I've been calling this

731
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 22: for a while because all indications were and I've been

732
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 22: covering politics for for some forty years. Kamala Harris has

733
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,960
Speaker 22: not been the ideal candidate for the Democrats, and she

734
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 22: hasn't resonated exactly the way that they expected her to.

735
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 22: Case in point, she hasn't done and this may be

736
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 22: hard to believe, she has not done one news conference

737
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 22: as the Democratic nominee, and so the swing states. I

738
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 22: have not seen this much excitement in America in many,

739
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,360
Speaker 22: many years, one way or the other. Whether you support Trump,

740
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 22: don't support Trump, whether you hate Trump, love Kamala Harris,

741
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 22: all indications are Heather as a right now, the votes

742
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 22: are still coming in, but as of right now, Trump

743
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 22: is doing exceedingly well in the battleground states. And world

744
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 22: get ready because it looks like Trump is coming back

745
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 22: for a second term.

746
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 4: Now, how on earth have we got this so wrong?

747
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 4: Once again? Not seeing that Trump was gonna win it.

748
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 22: Well, some of us predicted it from day one. And

749
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,920
Speaker 22: I'm not saying that to my own horn. I'm saying

750
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 22: that is because if you understand how much he's able

751
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 22: to resonate with people. The economy here in America, Heather

752
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:35,720
Speaker 22: is bad.

753
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:37,800
Speaker 5: Crime is bad.

754
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 22: We have a migrant problem, a homeless problem. And Trump's

755
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 22: line Heather at every campaign event where he started with

756
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 22: was is your life better off now than it was

757
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 22: four years ago, And obviously the answer is it was

758
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 22: better under his tenure. So again, you know, things can change,

759
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 22: but I don't think it's going to He's headed back

760
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 22: to the White House. And with his supporters, many of

761
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 22: them have not told posters Heather whether or not they

762
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 22: were gonna support Trump. I don't know why they didn't

763
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 22: tell the posters, but you're correct, yet again, posters have

764
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 22: this wrong by all in every indication, it is a

765
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 22: strong possibility, really strong that he is headed back to

766
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 22: the White House.

767
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 4: Is anything going her way tonight, dominic? Because I looked

768
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: at the swing states that she had the lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan,

769
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 4: and I think it was Wisconsin. He's leading, you know,

770
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 4: that was the lead going into it. He's leading in

771
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 4: all of them. So is anything actually happening for her

772
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 4: this evening?

773
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 22: No, And the clear sign of that, Heather, Her people

774
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 22: are not saying anything, not saying anything to the media,

775
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 22: trying to spend their side. Trump is even doing well

776
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 22: with African American black voters and Hispanic voters getting higher

777
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 22: numbers than the other Republican So that's something wrong. When

778
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 22: when the nominee for your party happens to be black,

779
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 22: and she can't resonate with with with her own race.

780
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 22: That it's it just didn't work, Heather, It did not

781
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 22: work for her. It was an experiment that went bad

782
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 22: and wrong for the Democrats, and they're learning the hard

783
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:18,479
Speaker 22: way right now.

784
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 4: Compensated back, Dominic, thanks so much, mate, Enjoy the evening.

785
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 4: That's Dominic Carter, US political commentator, former Senate debate moderator. Now,

786
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 4: apparently things are not very nice at Kamala. HQ CNN says.

787
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 4: The vibes are a little bit low, and I think.

788
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:35,719
Speaker 23: The operative word right now is silence. There's not a

789
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 23: lot being sad because the Harris team appears to be

790
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 23: searching for a bright spot in the map as these

791
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 23: results very very solo.

792
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 4: Now, Democrat and former US Ambassador to New Zealand Mark

793
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 4: Gilbert is at Howard University with Karmala's expected to speak

794
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 4: and back with us Mike Hallo and now are you

795
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 4: hearing that she's expected to speak potentially within the next

796
00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: half hour.

797
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 24: Yes, absolutely, I'm standing right where she's going to be speaking.

798
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 24: It's very loud, so I apologize for that in the background,

799
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 24: but I have to tell you what Dominic said was

800
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 24: about as far from the truth as it could be,

801
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,760
Speaker 24: saying that Kamala Harris has not done a press conference.

802
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 24: He's talking to the press multiple times a day. Donald

803
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 24: Trump canceled her debate, Donald Trump wouldn't do sixty minutes.

804
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 24: Donald Trump wouldn't do town halls. I mean, I don't

805
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 24: know what Dominic was watching, but it's nothing, but you know,

806
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 24: far from the truth. He also talked about how crime

807
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 24: was up in America. Crime is way down since Donald

808
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 24: Trump was president. So you know, he's giving the New

809
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:42,240
Speaker 24: Zealand people inaccurate facts and I think it's pretty disturbing.

810
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 4: Mack if she's speaking in the next half hour, is

811
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 4: it a CONCETIONI space.

812
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 5: No, No, not at all.

813
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 24: This was always scheduled to be at this time after

814
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,280
Speaker 24: the polls called in the West Coast. All the states

815
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 24: that have been called so far were expected to go

816
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 24: to Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, all the battleground states.

817
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 24: The number are still coming in and people have short memories.

818
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 24: You know, Donald Trump came out and said he won

819
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 24: the election, you know, back in twenty twenty, and then

820
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 24: the votes to get count it later are Democratic votes.

821
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 24: So this race is still there. It was always going

822
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 24: to be a margin of the margin of error race,

823
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 24: and not a single battleground state has yet to been called.

824
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 4: Do you still hold hope, Mark, because it sounds like

825
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 4: it in the face of all of the evidence that

826
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: he is going to win tonight. He's ahead in the

827
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: electoral college vote. New York Times has got him winning

828
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 4: eighty eight percent. He's leading all the swing states that accounting.

829
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 4: You still think that something might come through for him.

830
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 24: Heather, The New York Times had Hillary Clinton winning in

831
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 24: twenty sixteen. You know, during this period of time, there

832
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 24: hasn't been a single state that has been won or

833
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 24: lost by either candidate. Yet that wasn't expected, and people

834
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 24: forget Joe Biden. If you remember, Donald Trump came out

835
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 24: and claimed victory because he was ahead and all of

836
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 24: these out of ground states, but when the Democrat votes

837
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 24: were counted, many of the states the early vote is

838
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 24: not count until after the polls closed. And you know,

839
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 24: we are very helpful. We believe that's the blue wall holes.

840
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 24: We believe she's going to win the city of Omaha,

841
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 24: which is one electoral vote, yep. And all the Sunbelt

842
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 24: states are still in play we So the advantage that

843
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,720
Speaker 24: Kamla Harris has is she has many different paths to victory.

844
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 4: Brilliant, Mike, listen, thank you so much. I really appreciate

845
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 4: it and looking forward to hearing from her. That's Mark Gilbert,

846
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:35,280
Speaker 4: the former US Ambassador to New Zealand fourteen past five. Okay,

847
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 4: so here's a seven year bloc deal that is actually

848
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 4: so good that we've got to keep the full details

849
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Speaker 4: on the download tonight on the show. Now it is

850
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Speaker 4: available online exclusively with the guys of the Good Wine Co.

851
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852
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853
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854
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855
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Speaker 4: can tell you is this is a wine that's won

856
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857
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858
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859
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860
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864
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865
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867
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868
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869
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872
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873
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874
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Speaker 4: to four point eight percent in the September quarter. This

875
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Speaker 4: is slightly below what we were all expecting, including the

876
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 4: Reserve Bank at around five percent. Infametrics principal economist Brad

877
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 4: Olson is with us. Now, Hey, Brad, good evening. Why

878
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 4: is it coming less than expected? Is this because everybody's

879
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 4: gone off tozy? Not fully, but you're sort of on

880
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 4: the right track.

881
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 25: It's not actually because the labor market is in that

882
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:08,840
Speaker 25: great position and it's sort of not all bad news.

883
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 25: It's more that we've had a bunch of people that

884
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 25: haven't become what we'd define as unemployed. So we saw

885
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 25: around fourteen thousand fewer people in employment in the September quarter.

886
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 25: Of those fourteen thousand fewer in jobs, only five thousand

887
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 25: were counted as an increase in unemployment, So the remaining

888
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 25: nine thousand or so got into what we call the

889
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 25: not in labor force group, So, for various reasons, are

890
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 25: either not looking for work, they can't find work, they're

891
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,919
Speaker 25: not available to start immediately. So although their unemployment number

892
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 25: not quite as high as we might.

893
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:43,439
Speaker 8: Have expected, realistically, still a lot of challenges out there's

894
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 8: still a difficult labor market, and looking through the numbers

895
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 8: you are starting to see over the last year definitely

896
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 8: more discouragement where people are not able to find jobs

897
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 8: and therefore they're not looking quite as much.

898
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 4: Now, how is this going to affect the OCR decision?

899
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 4: Does this totally scrap any hope of a seventy five

900
00:42:58,360 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 4: basis point cut?

901
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 25: I don't know if it scraps any hope, but it

902
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 25: sure puts the dabner on it pretty significantly. Not only that,

903
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 25: but We also saw that when we got the labor

904
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 25: cost data that came out, it didn't drop by quite

905
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:13,240
Speaker 25: as much as was expected either. Part of that because

906
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 25: those public sector pay increases still quite substantial. We had

907
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 25: the new police agreement that came into force in the

908
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 25: September quarter. But long story short, I think what it

909
00:43:22,280 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 25: probably does is that there was a lot of other

910
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 25: pretty weak economic data that's come out over the last

911
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 25: couple of months in similar this labor market data itself

912
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 25: maybe not quite as bad as expected.

913
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 8: So fifty is still very much firmly on the table

914
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 8: in pole position.

915
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 25: But ye're right, probably not quite as much expectation now

916
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,959
Speaker 25: for that seventy five. It's just not as bad enough

917
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 25: to sort of pull that fire alarm yet.

918
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 4: No, Hey, thank you very much. Brad really appreciated Brad

919
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 4: Alson Informetric CEO and principal economists. Hither that guy this

920
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 4: is it's obviously Mark Mark the Optimus Gilbert. That guy

921
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 4: needs to start betting. Karmela is at twenty one dollars

922
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 4: to one on Betfair. It's over Heather. OMG. That guy's

923
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 4: in total denial. The Dems are massively delusional. They handed

924
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: this one to Trump. Now, look, he's probably telling you

925
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 4: what he's hearing from within the Democratic camp, which is

926
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 4: basically where he is right now. Right he's at headquarters.

927
00:44:10,760 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 4: Harris's campaign manager has apparently sent a memo to all

928
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 4: staff and it's still full of optimism.

929
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 23: E actually says Jake that the returns are coming in slowly.

930
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 23: They still see their path, but that path is largely

931
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 23: going to be through the Blue will.

932
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 4: And they're also not expecting a result tonight.

933
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,440
Speaker 23: We are built for this, let's finish the night out.

934
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 23: We will see you tomorrow. They are not expecting this

935
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:35,720
Speaker 23: to be wrapped up tonight.

936
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 4: And in further bad news for Kamela unfortunately, AP which

937
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 4: calls a lot of things much earlier than anybody else.

938
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 4: They're doing massive data analytics and stuff like that. They

939
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 4: have just called North Carolina for come sorry for Donald Trump. Now,

940
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 4: this is one that North Kamala Harris was actually in

941
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 4: the earlier in the evening pretty optimistic about she thought

942
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 4: she was going to take this one out. It's gone

943
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 4: to Donnie fifty one percent against forty eight percent, and

944
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 4: that's with eighty nine percent to the votes Countess, there's

945
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 4: another swing state down and gone. Read five twenty one.

946
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 3: Heather Duplicy Allen digging into the results of the US

947
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 3: presidential election. It's Heather Duplicy Allen drive with one New

948
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 3: Zealand let's get connected the use dogs.

949
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,359
Speaker 4: That'd be five twenty four. By the way, I think

950
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 4: it's Fox answers it, Fox, Yeah, Fox, Fox is now

951
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 4: calling that looks like the Republicans are going to take

952
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 4: the Senate. They are on track to take the Senate

953
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 4: at the stage, so it's looking like Trumpy gets the presidency,

954
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 4: they get the Senate, and then the things start to

955
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:31,920
Speaker 4: fall in line for the Republicans in a big way.

956
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 4: Just quick you back to the Treaty Principles Bill now.

957
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,359
Speaker 4: Despite David Seymore's best efforts to pretend earlier on in

958
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 4: the show that there's absolutely nothing to see here, there

959
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,360
Speaker 4: is no doubt. Don't buy it. There is no doubt

960
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,920
Speaker 4: in my mind that the government is planning to introduce

961
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 4: the Treaty Principle's Bill tomorrow pretty much to try to

962
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 4: hide it because they know full well we're all going

963
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 4: to be completely obsessed and distracted by the US election,

964
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 4: and they know that if they get it out on

965
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 4: Thursday tomorrow, it's before the planned hkoy even sets off

966
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 4: on Monday's the hecoy against the bill, and so I

967
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 4: think that indicates that they're trying to kind of bury

968
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 4: the thing and get ahead of everything, and it shows

969
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 4: how much the hating the heat that they're getting for this. Look,

970
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 4: it's politics, right, I mean, it feels slightly underhand, it

971
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,720
Speaker 4: feels a little bit cowardly, but it's politics, and it's

972
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 4: an option available to them, and you can't really begrudge

973
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 4: them for doing it. But I should don't even think

974
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 4: that's the most interesting thing that's going on here. I

975
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 4: think the most interesting thing is it the White Tonguey

976
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: Tribunal leaked the fact that the government was going to

977
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 4: do this. Apparently within an hour of getting a heads up,

978
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 4: a friendly little heads up from the government. They heard

979
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,560
Speaker 4: it and they were like, tell everybody, what are these

980
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 4: guys doing? How naive can you possibly be? They are

981
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 4: pretty much at the White Tounguy Tribunal or by themselves

982
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 4: making a case for why they should be reformed like

983
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 4: New Zealand First wants to do. What they've done here

984
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 4: is that they have demonstrated just how unbelievably political they

985
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 4: now are. They are not a neutral body, right, They're

986
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 4: not just a neutral body sitting there doing their job

987
00:46:56,520 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 4: making decisions. They are actively taking on the government of

988
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 4: the day because they do not like the government of

989
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 4: the day. Now, that is weird to me, especially when

990
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 4: it comes to the Treaty Principal's Bill, because this is

991
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 4: a bill that's going nowhere. I mean, the Prime Minister

992
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 4: has already said the thing is going to die. He's

993
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 4: going to kill it. So why is the White Tongue

994
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 4: tri Tribunal even wasting what credibility they have trying to

995
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 4: kill a bill that's already gonna die. It feels like

996
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 4: a really weird hill to die on. And if they

997
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 4: carry on like this, they are going to die on

998
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 4: a hill because they will get reformed by New Zealand first,

999
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:28,920
Speaker 4: because there will be a point of which we're all

1000
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 4: completely convinced that too political. Yeah, it's about time. They've

1001
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 4: already shown their political hand by doing weird things like

1002
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 4: taking cases to adjudicate on government policy, which is kind

1003
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 4: of outside their remit that they're having a crack at

1004
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 4: the government over this spill before even seeing the spill.

1005
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,959
Speaker 4: But I think that this particular leak takes the cake

1006
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 4: because there are a few things more political than a

1007
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 4: political leak, and by doing this they have convinced me

1008
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 4: that they actually do need to be reformed to put

1009
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,279
Speaker 4: them back in their lane together.

1010
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 1: Do for ce Ellen, Okay.

1011
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 4: I'm going to get you across every it's still happening

1012
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 4: with the US election as it comes in. Just a

1013
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 4: quick heads up there. There has been a bit of

1014
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:06,839
Speaker 4: a twist in the drama over the Algerian boxer at

1015
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,840
Speaker 4: the Olympics and whether or not the boxer is a woman.

1016
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 4: Now you'll remember this. It's being reported that that documents

1017
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 4: have been leaked that show Amine Khalif is actually a

1018
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 4: biological man. Her medical records from twenty twenty three shows

1019
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 4: she doesn't have ovaries, she doesn't have a uterus. The

1020
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 4: medical records come from French and Algerian expert endochronologists and

1021
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 4: apparently IOC. Basically, what it shows is that she has

1022
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 4: got what's known as five A reduct taste two deficiency,

1023
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 4: which is a development that is outside the norm and

1024
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 4: only happens in men. But when kids are born, they

1025
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 4: are usually classified by the doctors as girls because the

1026
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 4: testes are inside the bodies, so they are not obviously

1027
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 4: to the naked eye boys. Blah blah blah. Anyway, so

1028
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,720
Speaker 4: she is apparently a man. According to these medical records,

1029
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:53,919
Speaker 4: she shouldn't have been boxing against girls. But what makes

1030
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:56,439
Speaker 4: this worse is that the IOC has known since May

1031
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 4: last year, because they've had these medical documents in the

1032
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 4: letter box. Anyways, and now there are calls obviously to

1033
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 4: strip the gold medal. Watch the space headlines next.

1034
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 3: Red or blue, Trump or Harrison? Who will win the

1035
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 3: battleground states? To the latest on the US election is

1036
00:49:11,160 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 3: Heather Duplicy allan drive with one.

1037
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:16,080
Speaker 1: New Zealand let's get connected these talks. That'd be.

1038
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 4: All right, the Hudless standing by the sevening. We've got

1039
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,120
Speaker 4: two people who are very interested in American politics, Tim

1040
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 4: Wilson and Morris Williams, and they're going to talk us

1041
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,280
Speaker 4: through what they think. And Jeremy Hutton of Milford Asset

1042
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 4: Management will give us the market reaction because at this

1043
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 4: stage the markets will be most likely pricing in a

1044
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 4: Trump victories. Will have a chat to them about that

1045
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,759
Speaker 4: very quickly. There is something weird going on with Westpac

1046
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 4: now west Pack. Apparently they've introduced these climate targets. They

1047
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 4: want to force dairy farmers to reduce their emissions. But

1048
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 4: apparently they're going harder on our dairy farmers than they

1049
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 4: are on OSSI dairy farmers. I'm gonna running through those

1050
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 4: details before six o'clock and then we'll have a chat,

1051
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 4: I think to federat a farmers actually about that after

1052
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 4: six twenty three away from six.

1053
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 1: Heather due to see Allen.

1054
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 6: But it looks like.

1055
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 4: North Carolina has fallen to Donald Trump. This is the

1056
00:50:10,200 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 4: first of the hotly contested battleground states. It's been called

1057
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 4: by ap for him. Trump is so far leading all

1058
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,879
Speaker 4: other swing states bar Nevada because counting hasn't started the yet.

1059
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 4: Polster John Zogby has been watching the numbers roll in

1060
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 4: all night and he's with us.

1061
00:50:22,320 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 12: Hey, John, Yes, Hi, how are you.

1062
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 4: I'm very well, thank you.

1063
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:25,879
Speaker 16: Now.

1064
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 4: We just had Mark Gilbert from the Democrats on with

1065
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 4: us about half an hour ago, arguing that there are

1066
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 4: still paths to victory for Kamala Harris. Can you see them?

1067
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 12: Yeah, there is a past to victory.

1068
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 21: It is getting narrower, to be honest with you. However,

1069
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:44,800
Speaker 21: in terms of the popular vote, which is still important. California,

1070
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 21: the big Kahuna has not been counted yet, and Joe

1071
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 21: Biden had a five million vote differential there, So I

1072
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 21: would kind of discount the widelya that Donald Trump has

1073
00:50:56,400 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 21: in the popular vote. But losing North Carolina was a

1074
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,919
Speaker 21: major blow. I don't know that the Harris folks were

1075
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 21: necessarily expecting to win North Carolina, but it's a big state,

1076
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 21: sixteen electoral votes, and it now makes it a bit

1077
00:51:13,760 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 21: tougher for her to win. Now where things stand, she

1078
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:26,760
Speaker 21: needs to win what we call the blue Wall Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania.

1079
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 12: Two of those are real possibilities.

1080
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:35,360
Speaker 21: That would be Wisconsin and Michigan. But Pennsylvania.

1081
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 26: God knows when we're going to know about Pennsylvania, I

1082
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 26: mean Pennsylvania.

1083
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 4: He's got a lead of fifty one according to AP

1084
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 4: fifty one to her forty eight with seventy nine percent

1085
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 4: of votes county. Can you see her flipping that?

1086
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: Well?

1087
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,160
Speaker 21: You know, what we do know is that typically in

1088
00:51:55,239 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 21: most states, the smaller rural counties have fewer votes to count,

1089
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 21: and they get their votes in much more quickly. So

1090
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:10,399
Speaker 21: it's the bigger cities in this instance, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh

1091
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:15,960
Speaker 21: to some degree, Scranton and Allentown, smaller cities, but those

1092
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 21: are democratic places and their votes are are not entirely

1093
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 21: in yet UH. And then there are the early votes,

1094
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 21: the mandatory vote count and so I'm not betting on

1095
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 21: anything right now, but it does look like a very

1096
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,280
Speaker 21: much more narrow path for Kamala Harris.

1097
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 4: That Iowa poll that we got a few days ago

1098
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 4: that really sent a shockwave through the campaign. Can we

1099
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 4: call that a rug?

1100
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 3: Now?

1101
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 21: Well, we thought that it was going to be, you know,

1102
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:53,840
Speaker 21: where it was possible.

1103
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 12: That's a very good pollster.

1104
00:52:55,680 --> 00:53:01,319
Speaker 21: They're really one of the platinum standards an Seltzer, who

1105
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:07,280
Speaker 21: pulls Iowa. We do know that she revealed women's vote

1106
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 21: was heavily in favor of Donald of Kamala Harris, and

1107
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:14,799
Speaker 21: a lot of it have to do with abortion and

1108
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:21,000
Speaker 21: fear of a Trump presidency. We also know that the

1109
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 21: early votes have not been counted yet, and there was

1110
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 21: a differential of eleven points more women voting in UH

1111
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 21: in early votes than men voting in early votes. So,

1112
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 21: in short, this thing is not over yet.

1113
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 4: When John, when would you say it's over? What is

1114
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 4: the thing that you got? Okay, that's what I give up?

1115
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 4: Trump wins?

1116
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:53,080
Speaker 21: Well, you know I was looking closely at North Carolina.

1117
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 21: But if there is a loss in uh in Michigan

1118
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:02,400
Speaker 21: for count my Harrison, I think it's going to be

1119
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:05,720
Speaker 21: that may be a bell weather at this point.

1120
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:07,279
Speaker 4: Okay, John, it's good to talk to you. Thank you

1121
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 4: very much, as John Zogby Polster, Michigan. At this stage,

1122
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 4: very early day, well not very early day's still early days,

1123
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 4: though middling early days. I suppose thirty eight percent of

1124
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 4: the vote counted. Donald Trump's on fifty one point seven percent.

1125
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,520
Speaker 4: She Karmala Harris is on forty six point six percent,

1126
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 4: nineteen away from six.

1127
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:27,839
Speaker 3: The huddle with New Zealand Southerby's international realty, local and

1128
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 3: global exposure.

1129
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:29,759
Speaker 1: Like no other.

1130
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 4: On the huddle of me this evening, we've got Morris

1131
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 4: Williams and Auckland Councilor, former US Consul General, and Tim

1132
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 4: Wilson Maxim Institute, former US correspondent for TV ands that

1133
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 4: how are you two?

1134
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:39,240
Speaker 27: Good afternoon?

1135
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:40,520
Speaker 1: Hi there now Morris.

1136
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 4: When John was just saying that he still sees a

1137
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 4: path for Carmela, you shook your headway.

1138
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 27: I just don't think it's possible. The percentages have closed

1139
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:51,279
Speaker 27: down so much the eighties percents of the vote are in.

1140
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 27: He's talking about Allantown and Pittsburgh, but there's a county

1141
00:54:55,520 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 27: there called Northampton, right by Allentown. I was watching Northampton before.

1142
00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 27: It's a really interesting one. Like Arie on the other side,

1143
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:06,960
Speaker 27: it went both times with Obama, it then went with Trump,

1144
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:09,240
Speaker 27: and it then went with Biden and.

1145
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 4: Trump is one north that's a bell Weather, is it.

1146
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 27: It's a very bell Weather county within Pennsylvania, and so

1147
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 27: is Aerie. So I just think there would have to

1148
00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:23,360
Speaker 27: be some boxes of ballots hidden somewhere underneath the tables

1149
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,879
Speaker 27: now for it to not be a final Trump win.

1150
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 4: I mean, I've been reluctant to say things like that

1151
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 4: out loud. Tim, given the circumstances, what do you think,

1152
00:55:30,880 --> 00:55:34,200
Speaker 4: do you see any chance that she takes it?

1153
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 28: It's getting harder and harder, isn't it. And I think

1154
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:40,680
Speaker 28: your reference to Fox News calling the Senate, I think

1155
00:55:40,719 --> 00:55:43,759
Speaker 28: that's really indicative because that determines the mood of the

1156
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 28: nation in a way that you know, this discussion, was

1157
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 28: it going to be Karmela or Trump? I don't like Trump,

1158
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 28: blah blah blah. All of the personnelities taken out of

1159
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:54,280
Speaker 28: it but when you look at the House and Senate,

1160
00:55:54,520 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 28: I think that's a fascinating that's the fascinating sort of contest.

1161
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:01,520
Speaker 28: I think Karmala always had a problem because, as a

1162
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:05,000
Speaker 28: very smart person framed it the other day, she's saying, oh,

1163
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 28: I'm the change person, but she's an incumbent. So there

1164
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:12,839
Speaker 28: just seems to be a structural paradox there that we're

1165
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 28: seeing evidence of.

1166
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 1: Now.

1167
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 27: I've been on the rough end of that pineapple in

1168
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 27: nineteen ninety nine. I would sit up at Premiere House

1169
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 27: with Jenny Shipley. Our polling was showing we were down

1170
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:25,960
Speaker 27: the toilet, so we would announce the next day some

1171
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:27,760
Speaker 27: things that would help get us back in the game.

1172
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 27: And two nights later the polling come in and we

1173
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:32,279
Speaker 27: dropped another three points. When you're on that tide of

1174
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 27: its time to go, it just sweeps you no matter

1175
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 27: what track, right track is all you need to do.

1176
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,479
Speaker 27: And she didn't distance herself enough from incumbency. If she'd

1177
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 27: come out and said, look, I was only a vice

1178
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 27: president and you're not allowed to say anything. I didn't win.

1179
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 27: Joe Biden became the president. I was only his running mate.

1180
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 27: But I can tell you there was heaps of things

1181
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,000
Speaker 27: he said and did I disagreed with I would have

1182
00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:53,799
Speaker 27: changed if I'd been the president, and if he had

1183
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:55,919
Speaker 27: left earlier, I would have made that Joe. She could

1184
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:58,160
Speaker 27: have tried to distance herself, but she actually said she

1185
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:02,279
Speaker 27: supported everything that he's Yeah, and that means she was

1186
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 27: part of the incumbent track. And I think I sent

1187
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 27: you a text well earlier today. There's just not possible

1188
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:10,520
Speaker 27: for him for her to win. When people are desperate

1189
00:57:10,560 --> 00:57:13,440
Speaker 27: for change, they're hurting in their pocket book, they're hurting

1190
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 27: in their bank account, they're hurting in their mortgage. Right,

1191
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 27: the economy. Every one of the polls I saw on

1192
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 27: see an end of the day number one was always

1193
00:57:20,080 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 27: the economy.

1194
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:21,040
Speaker 4: It always is.

1195
00:57:21,200 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 1: I like you what.

1196
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 4: I like that both of you guys. Before you carry on, Tim,

1197
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:25,479
Speaker 4: I just want to give both of you props. Okay,

1198
00:57:25,560 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 4: both of you made sure that you got your predictions

1199
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 4: on record into me early So two o'clock this afternoon,

1200
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 4: Morris texts me and says, I believe Trump will win

1201
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 4: the selection and reasonably comfortably. And Tim, when did you

1202
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 4: text me? Was it last night?

1203
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 28: Yeah?

1204
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 4: Last night, Yeah, last night, seven twenty two you said

1205
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 4: I'm picking the result will surprise many commentators. At two

1206
00:57:45,760 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 4: to three percent shift will make a significant dent. And

1207
00:57:48,680 --> 00:57:51,000
Speaker 4: I said to you, as Trump you pick, you are like, yep, clean,

1208
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 4: clear result either way. So there you go, both of

1209
00:57:53,320 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 4: you there geniuses. You're both better than most of the

1210
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 4: posters in the States. Trump Trump Tim.

1211
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:03,160
Speaker 28: Sorry, hey, listen, I just I just spent the afternoon

1212
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:05,480
Speaker 28: with him once, so please don't mistake me for Donald Trump.

1213
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 4: And was in person as he seems on Telly.

1214
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 28: No, No, he was.

1215
00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: He was.

1216
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 28: He was a new He was a New York real

1217
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 28: estate guy. He was a charming He was a charming,

1218
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 28: charming fellow. Interesting fact about Donald Trump, though, when you

1219
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 28: meet he's always late.

1220
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:23,479
Speaker 1: You're waiting for him. You're waiting, you're waiting.

1221
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 28: And when you meet him, he comes in and he

1222
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 28: does the power handshake. You know, the power handshake is that,

1223
00:58:29,640 --> 00:58:33,000
Speaker 28: and you're on the bottom and it goes on and

1224
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 28: on and yeah, firm squeeze. But he's a he's a germophobe,

1225
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:43,720
Speaker 28: so he hates touching strangers, but he likes the power.

1226
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 4: Why this is creeping me out so much?

1227
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 12: All right, creeping me out?

1228
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 5: Doing it?

1229
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 4: Relive it, all right? And did he have small hands,

1230
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,000
Speaker 4: because did he have small hands as well?

1231
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 28: No, no, not that I recall.

1232
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 16: That's that's the myth.

1233
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 27: They all say his hands are very well.

1234
00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 4: Well, I mean it's always possib that Tim also has

1235
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 4: small hands, could be and so relative to each other.

1236
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 27: You can give us a report when we come back

1237
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:06,600
Speaker 27: after the break right size of your hands?

1238
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 4: Please, thank you, break record.

1239
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 3: It's the Huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty Elevate

1240
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 3: the marketing of your home.

1241
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 4: Ap by the way, has just called Virginia for Karmala Harris.

1242
00:59:20,000 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 4: Nevada has just been called for Donald Trump by Fox News.

1243
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 4: And also remember apparently Karmala Harris was supposed to be

1244
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 4: speaking within half an hour. We're outside that half an

1245
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 4: hour bracket at the moment and she hasn't started speaking yet.

1246
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 4: So we'll keep you posted if that actually does happening.

1247
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:36,480
Speaker 4: You back with the Huddle, Morris Williamson and Tim Wilson. Morris,

1248
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 4: what do you make of the White Tangy Tribunal just

1249
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 4: back home here quickly leaking the fact that the Treated

1250
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 4: Principal's Bill is going to Parliament tomorrow.

1251
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 27: Well, I think it's disgraceful. I think the White Tangy

1252
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 27: Tribunal really has to answer for what it's done. It's

1253
00:59:48,600 --> 00:59:50,919
Speaker 27: clear they have leaked it out after they were given

1254
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 27: the date. I actually don't think there is a plot

1255
00:59:53,960 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 27: for bringing it forward for any reason. I was a

1256
00:59:56,720 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 27: minister with a whole lot of portfolio, is trying to

1257
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:02,920
Speaker 27: get legislative time. Sometimes the LEDs Committee would say you're

1258
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 27: on tomorrow, and so I haven't even got my speech right.

1259
01:00:05,440 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 4: Oh but Morris, come on, where all the whole world.

1260
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 4: I agree with you on that, But the whole world

1261
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 4: like this is when you bury bad news TV and

1262
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 4: z it has just announced fifty people are going to

1263
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 4: lose their jobs on election day for a reason, And

1264
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 4: whatever happens tomorrow is being done for a reason because

1265
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:21,640
Speaker 4: it's buried by the US election.

1266
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:24,960
Speaker 27: Yeah, well, I look, I go with the Moldoon line.

1267
01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,160
Speaker 27: He used to say, if you have to choose between

1268
01:00:27,200 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 27: the conspiracy theory and the cockup, always go with a cockup.

1269
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:34,200
Speaker 27: And that's what I think. But I'm a big fan

1270
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 27: of the bill. I actually am sorry the NATS are

1271
01:00:36,240 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 27: opposed to it because me too.

1272
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 12: I tell you the.

1273
01:00:38,240 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 27: Problem I had while I was a minister, I'd put

1274
01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:42,520
Speaker 27: some papers together, getting a bill together, and I'd write

1275
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,080
Speaker 27: what I wanted done, and then i'd have official saying,

1276
01:00:45,520 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 27: problem as minister, that could be in breach of some

1277
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 27: of the principles of the treaty, and I'd say, oh,

1278
01:00:49,680 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 27: can I get a copy of the principle so I

1279
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:54,040
Speaker 27: can work through them and see where I'm Well, they're

1280
01:00:54,080 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 27: not that clearly, they're not written down. I said, so,

1281
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 27: then how do I know what they are? Well, they've

1282
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:01,240
Speaker 27: been made by a number of judges and by the

1283
01:01:01,280 --> 01:01:04,160
Speaker 27: White Tangy trim and it's really not clear. And I said, well,

1284
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:05,480
Speaker 27: hang on, how would you ever play a game of

1285
01:01:05,560 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 27: rugby if you didn't have a rule book? You get

1286
01:01:07,440 --> 01:01:09,240
Speaker 27: the rule book. No, you can't pass the ball forward,

1287
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,280
Speaker 27: that's fine, can't tackle the man without the ball. So

1288
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 27: I know how to play rugby. But if they said,

1289
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 27: I'm not telling you what the rules are, now go

1290
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 27: and play. So I think it's a damn good thing.

1291
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,120
Speaker 27: And I thought it would be welcomed by everybody, including

1292
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 27: Mariy that we know exactly what is the Treaty of

1293
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 27: White Town. This idea we're trying to rewrite the treaty.

1294
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 27: No one's doing that. The treaty is starting, the treaty

1295
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 27: is not being touched. Yea, But what are the principles

1296
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 27: and where did they come from? And who had the

1297
01:01:32,160 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 27: right to decide them? Because of one judge somewhere who

1298
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 27: decided these are this is a principle of the treaty.

1299
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 12: Why does he have.

1300
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 27: That right as opposed to a parliament that's elected and

1301
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 27: so on. So I'm disappointed in that's and not backing

1302
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 27: it at least a little bit further. But they're clearly

1303
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:50,360
Speaker 27: not They clearly.

1304
01:01:50,160 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 4: Said well there, but cowardly on the subject. I think

1305
01:01:52,760 --> 01:01:54,720
Speaker 4: what do you make of it? Tim?

1306
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 28: Yeah, look, I said, I think we need to be

1307
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:00,400
Speaker 28: able to because even at chriss Hipkins, I think Rasena

1308
01:02:00,520 --> 01:02:02,960
Speaker 28: last year said that Labor hadn't brought people with them

1309
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 28: on this issue. So this is what I think David

1310
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 28: Seymour is trying to do. At least, let's have the discussion.

1311
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 28: And it's going to be painful. It's like a kind

1312
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 28: of national adolescence. They'll be pimples, they'll be passed, but

1313
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 28: I think we'll be more developed for it. So I

1314
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,880
Speaker 28: think it's I think it's a positive because you can't

1315
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:23,080
Speaker 28: move anywhere if you don't know what you're talking about.

1316
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 27: And the one thing I get confused about is I'm

1317
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 27: being told how dreadful it is. And just like saying, oh,

1318
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 27: you can't give me a rule booker for rugby, you

1319
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:32,800
Speaker 27: can't give me a rule book for now, you're saying, well,

1320
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 27: we would then have a guide that everyone had signed

1321
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:37,280
Speaker 27: up to, that it has been passed through Parliament, and

1322
01:02:37,280 --> 01:02:39,520
Speaker 27: we would know what we could bring, and then ministers

1323
01:02:39,520 --> 01:02:41,440
Speaker 27: wouldn't say, well, I'd like to do this, but does

1324
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:43,400
Speaker 27: it breach the principles because I don't know what they

1325
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 27: are and no one will show them to me.

1326
01:02:45,320 --> 01:02:45,920
Speaker 8: I just don't.

1327
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 28: I want to make sure that we're yeah, what's wrong.

1328
01:02:48,120 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 28: I want to make sure that we need to be

1329
01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:55,480
Speaker 28: able to bring Mary with us with along on this,

1330
01:02:55,960 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 28: on this hiding of this journey, so that I think

1331
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:00,240
Speaker 28: that's the important part of it. But yeah, it's part of.

1332
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 27: I'm not a parst of that. I think that's vital

1333
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 27: that everyone's bored along with us. But I would have

1334
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 27: thought that a really good debate sensible and said, well,

1335
01:03:07,040 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 27: actually that's just too radical, that's not what you can.

1336
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 4: Fox is called the Senate for the Republicans. Morris I

1337
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:15,720
Speaker 4: make I think you make a very good point, and

1338
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 4: I think so do you, Tim about Actually I'm taking

1339
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 4: taking everybody with but let's not let's not assume that

1340
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:24,040
Speaker 4: Mary arenecessarily all represented by the Marty Party.

1341
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 16: Correct, absolutely, song and dance about it.

1342
01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 12: Absolutely, because you don't.

1343
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:28,920
Speaker 28: You don't want to. You don't want to make assumptions

1344
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:30,680
Speaker 28: about us, like who are Mary?

1345
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 1: Who are parkingher?

1346
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 4: Exactly? Yeah, because we don't all think like a lady

1347
01:03:34,000 --> 01:03:36,640
Speaker 4: politician doesn't necessarily represent me just because she's a lady.

1348
01:03:36,800 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 27: But my current cabinet's got more mara than any cabinets ever.

1349
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 4: Had quite a very good point. Guys, listen, thank you.

1350
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 4: We're gonna have to leave it there. I really appreciate

1351
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 4: your insights. That's a huddle this evening, Morris Williamson and

1352
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 4: Tim Wilson.

1353
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 3: Red or blue, Trump or Harris? Who will win the

1354
01:03:50,040 --> 01:03:53,560
Speaker 3: battleground states? The latest on the US election. It's Heather

1355
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:57,360
Speaker 3: Duplicy allan drive with one New Zealand let's get connected.

1356
01:03:57,400 --> 01:03:58,280
Speaker 1: These talks'd be.

1357
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 4: If five away from six now. Fox News, as we

1358
01:04:02,320 --> 01:04:05,320
Speaker 4: were just saying, has called the Senate for the Republicans.

1359
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 29: Fox Nears projects that the Republicans will take control of

1360
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:12,880
Speaker 29: the United States Senate. The party will hold at least

1361
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 29: fifty one seats, which is enough for an outright majority.

1362
01:04:17,560 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 4: And bitcoin has jumped to a record as chances of

1363
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,360
Speaker 4: a Trump victory gross. The price of bitcoin is now

1364
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 4: at seventy five thousand dollars. That's up from the previous

1365
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:29,080
Speaker 4: all time I have seventy three thousand dollars. Markets are

1366
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 4: expecting a lot of volativity for volatility sorry from a

1367
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 4: Trump where we're going to talk to Jeremy Hutton from

1368
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:35,920
Speaker 4: Milford Asset Management straight after the news about that. As

1369
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:38,240
Speaker 4: I was telling you about Westpac and the farmers. Now,

1370
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:41,080
Speaker 4: Patrick Smalley's written an excellent piece for Business Desk and

1371
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 4: if you are into this kind of thing, I recommend

1372
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:46,800
Speaker 4: digging it up in which he basically asks what is

1373
01:04:46,840 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 4: the point of the banking inquiry at Parliament, which is

1374
01:04:49,640 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 4: kind of what we've been talking about on the show,

1375
01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 4: Like what is the point of these backbench National Party

1376
01:04:54,160 --> 01:04:57,320
Speaker 4: and piece goingham? How much do you earn? How much

1377
01:04:57,360 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 4: do you end? I don't care. I don't care. That's

1378
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 4: in the annual. I don't need you to have a

1379
01:05:01,080 --> 01:05:03,520
Speaker 4: parliamentary inquiry to find that out. But maybe this is

1380
01:05:03,520 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 4: a thing that they can get themselves stuck into. Westpac

1381
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:09,040
Speaker 4: apparently is being tougher on the dairy farmers in New

1382
01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:12,320
Speaker 4: Zealand than the dairy farmers in Australia when they demand

1383
01:05:12,360 --> 01:05:15,880
Speaker 4: reductions and climate emissions. So when Westpac reported it's big

1384
01:05:15,920 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 4: profit a couple of days ago, it also announced its

1385
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 4: targets for reducing emissions. Now this is important because it

1386
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 4: starts to impact, like if they give you finance. If

1387
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 4: they finance you, then they expect the stuff off you

1388
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:29,880
Speaker 4: and then what happens do they stop financing if you're

1389
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:33,080
Speaker 4: a baddie with the climate and stuff like that. They

1390
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:35,280
Speaker 4: are harder on our farmers than the Aussies. The Bank's

1391
01:05:35,320 --> 01:05:39,480
Speaker 4: twenty thirty target for the Australian dead dairy farmers is

1392
01:05:39,600 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 4: zero point eighty five tons of CO two equivalent per

1393
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:45,800
Speaker 4: ton of fat protein corrected milk. So the Assies are

1394
01:05:45,800 --> 01:05:48,840
Speaker 4: being slapped with a expectation of zero point eight five tons,

1395
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 4: But for New Zealand dairy farmers the expectation is zero

1396
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 4: point seven to five tons, which is quite a lot difference,

1397
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:58,280
Speaker 4: and apparently the same thing is being done by Westpac

1398
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 4: to our beef and our sheep, which doesn't seem fair.

1399
01:06:02,360 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 4: Feels like the Banking Inquiry might want to ask some

1400
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 4: questions about that. When Katherine McGrath appears in about two

1401
01:06:07,440 --> 01:06:10,439
Speaker 4: weeks time before them CEO of Westpac. Obviously two point

1402
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:13,280
Speaker 4: two million dollars, don't bother asking. We already know and

1403
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 4: we're going to talk to Richard McIntyre of Federated Farmers

1404
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:17,200
Speaker 4: about that very shortly. News Talks dB.

1405
01:06:18,880 --> 01:06:35,000
Speaker 3: You know, a change of president, how will it affect

1406
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 3: the US economy and what are the flow on effects globally.

1407
01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 1: Analyzing the economic impact of the US election.

1408
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:44,479
Speaker 3: It's the Business Hour with Heather Duplicyl and my HR

1409
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 3: the HR solution for busy SMEs News.

1410
01:06:47,360 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 1: Talks dB.

1411
01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:51,760
Speaker 4: All right, even in coming up in the next hour,

1412
01:06:51,800 --> 01:06:54,040
Speaker 4: we're going to talk to Federated Farmers very shortly about

1413
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,120
Speaker 4: wes Pac, Tim Grosser, former US and a former New

1414
01:06:57,200 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 4: Zealand ambassador rather to the US and what the Trump

1415
01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:02,040
Speaker 4: president see will mean for US most likely outcome. And

1416
01:07:02,080 --> 01:07:04,920
Speaker 4: also Thomas problems at Carmela's headquarters, so we'll check in

1417
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:06,320
Speaker 4: with him in half an hour just to see how

1418
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 4: miserable they are its eight past six now with us

1419
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 4: right now is Jeremy Hutton of Milford Asset Management even

1420
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 4: in Jeremy, good evening, Heather, can you to me? They've

1421
01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 4: just set the scene a little bit for how markets

1422
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:17,000
Speaker 4: have been trading pre election.

1423
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:20,680
Speaker 30: Yeah, just a bit of context to our starting point. So,

1424
01:07:20,840 --> 01:07:23,720
Speaker 30: financial markets in a few weeks before the election had

1425
01:07:23,760 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 30: started to put on some trades that were perceived as

1426
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:29,800
Speaker 30: more pro Trump or factoring in a Trump win. And

1427
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:33,919
Speaker 30: effectively this was a reinflation trade. So you saw US

1428
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:37,360
Speaker 30: bond yields or interest rates starting to rise steadily. This

1429
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 30: was linked to concerns about an increase a further increase

1430
01:07:40,360 --> 01:07:43,880
Speaker 30: in the US government budget deficit, obviously highly negative already

1431
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:47,520
Speaker 30: but proceed to get worse under Trump. Effectively, those corporate

1432
01:07:47,560 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 30: tax cuts contributing to the deficit rising further, Bitcoin that's

1433
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 30: rarely really strongly, that seen as a pro Trump trade.

1434
01:07:55,600 --> 01:07:57,840
Speaker 30: And then the flow on effect from these high bond

1435
01:07:57,880 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 30: yields or interest rates is a strong US particularly the

1436
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 30: other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, so good for

1437
01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:09,000
Speaker 30: our exports. And then finally higher tariffs that Trump talks about. Again,

1438
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:13,640
Speaker 30: financial markets believing that these are inflationary, and that's impacted

1439
01:08:13,680 --> 01:08:16,360
Speaker 30: you know, the Chinese room and be Mexican peso euro

1440
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:20,280
Speaker 30: all all falling in anticipation of these tariffs, and you

1441
01:08:20,320 --> 01:08:22,639
Speaker 30: know the negative impacts that these might have on their

1442
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:23,680
Speaker 30: respective economies.

1443
01:08:24,320 --> 01:08:26,559
Speaker 4: Right now, Jeremy, it looks like Trump's going to win,

1444
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:28,640
Speaker 4: but you know, we haven't had a final count, so

1445
01:08:28,880 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 4: there is an element of uncertainty. And this how's the

1446
01:08:31,320 --> 01:08:32,599
Speaker 4: market reacted so far?

1447
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:36,320
Speaker 30: Yeah, I mean markets will hate that uncertainty, you know,

1448
01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 30: you know, they'll prefer a landslide in either direction. But

1449
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:41,639
Speaker 30: it doesn't look like it's going to happen just yet.

1450
01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:44,680
Speaker 30: But effectively, a few, a few of the items I've

1451
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:47,600
Speaker 30: been watching, you know, you're right now to term or

1452
01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:51,040
Speaker 30: positive to Trump. You know, US security markets are closed

1453
01:08:51,040 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 30: given the time zone, but the futures are always trading.

1454
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 30: The Nazdak, the tech GIV Nazdak and the S and

1455
01:08:56,360 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 30: P five hundred are up one percent, and that's sort

1456
01:08:59,160 --> 01:09:02,519
Speaker 30: of steadily gained through afternoon as the results have come through.

1457
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 30: Asian markets, Japan has been really strong over two percent.

1458
01:09:06,360 --> 01:09:09,479
Speaker 30: That's sort of seen as an anti China moved there.

1459
01:09:09,560 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 30: Hong Kong down over two percent and career down as

1460
01:09:12,280 --> 01:09:14,920
Speaker 30: well on that tariff risk. But I think the big

1461
01:09:14,960 --> 01:09:17,599
Speaker 30: moves have the newest bond yields ever are still up

1462
01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:21,320
Speaker 30: sharply again. And the currency, the US dollars strong across

1463
01:09:21,320 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 30: the board as well. His own dollar down over one

1464
01:09:23,720 --> 01:09:27,800
Speaker 30: percent versus usd and bitcoin doing really well up up

1465
01:09:27,840 --> 01:09:29,559
Speaker 30: seven percent as we speak right now.

1466
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 4: Have we seen any impact on the Intertex or Inzed companies.

1467
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:39,160
Speaker 30: Yeah, the Injets company should be relatively well insulated. There's

1468
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:43,280
Speaker 30: no direct exposures to the US election. The only company

1469
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:46,960
Speaker 30: that has got some discussion is Infertile, and that's because

1470
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 30: one of its largest portfolio companies, Long Road Energy, is

1471
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:54,320
Speaker 30: a large renewable builder in the US that has benefited

1472
01:09:55,080 --> 01:09:58,400
Speaker 30: a bit from the Inflation Reduction Act under Biden. So

1473
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:03,080
Speaker 30: any potential reform type that with a strong Republican vote

1474
01:10:03,160 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 30: could impact in Fortil at the margins. But other than that,

1475
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:08,720
Speaker 30: exporters you know will be favored with the week in

1476
01:10:08,760 --> 01:10:11,920
Speaker 30: New Zealand dollar and your dairy prices is very strong overnight,

1477
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 30: which will help as well.

1478
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:15,879
Speaker 4: And then what about Ozzie companies AZI listed companies.

1479
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:19,760
Speaker 30: Yeah, so remember the A six The Aussie market is

1480
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:22,559
Speaker 30: seen as the easy way to access China or some

1481
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:26,920
Speaker 30: China proxies and financial markets are thinking, you know, Trump win,

1482
01:10:27,120 --> 01:10:30,000
Speaker 30: that's bad for the Chinese economy with these tariffs coming in.

1483
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:32,760
Speaker 30: So Trump win could hit some of those resource names

1484
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:36,679
Speaker 30: in Australia iron Ore in particular, so the HP Leo Tinto,

1485
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:39,960
Speaker 30: but at the moment they're largely trading flat, so shragging

1486
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:42,760
Speaker 30: that off. And then the other one is the Australian

1487
01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:45,080
Speaker 30: banks on the flip side, so they've been really strong

1488
01:10:45,680 --> 01:10:49,880
Speaker 30: in twenty twenty four on that weeker China trade, so

1489
01:10:49,960 --> 01:10:51,519
Speaker 30: you could see a bit more bidding up off the

1490
01:10:51,600 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 30: OSSI banks.

1491
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 4: Jeremy, good to talk to you, mate, thanks so much

1492
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 4: for running us for as Jeremy Hutton of Milfed Act

1493
01:10:56,360 --> 01:11:00,679
Speaker 4: Management over at Harris's. This is Kmon Harris's past at

1494
01:11:00,680 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 4: Howard University. They have turned off the broadcasts of CNN.

1495
01:11:05,439 --> 01:11:07,360
Speaker 4: And the reason they've turned off the broadcast of CNN

1496
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:09,040
Speaker 4: is because the cheers and the crowd have become less

1497
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:11,240
Speaker 4: frequent because the results are coming in showing its very

1498
01:11:11,280 --> 01:11:13,240
Speaker 4: tight race on victories for Trump, and so it's basically

1499
01:11:13,320 --> 01:11:17,000
Speaker 4: killing the mood. And instead they've done is they have

1500
01:11:17,200 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 4: put on very high energy remixes and floodlights in ten pots.

1501
01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 4: Try to hype the crowd and maybe this is an

1502
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:27,680
Speaker 4: anticipation of her coming out, or maybe it's just I

1503
01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 4: don't know, try and make people feel good.

1504
01:11:29,120 --> 01:11:33,000
Speaker 1: Twelve past six, Heather Duplessyl Right now, as.

1505
01:11:32,880 --> 01:11:35,360
Speaker 4: I was telling you, Westpac has set tougher climate targets

1506
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:37,240
Speaker 4: for our dairy farmers in New Zealand than it has

1507
01:11:37,280 --> 01:11:39,720
Speaker 4: for their Oussie counterparts. So they want to reduce the

1508
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 4: emissions of all the dairy farms by ten percent. This

1509
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 4: is the ones they finance by twenty thirty. So the

1510
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 4: Ossie farmers need to get their emissions down to zero

1511
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:49,280
Speaker 4: point eight five tons of carbon per ton of milk,

1512
01:11:49,520 --> 01:11:51,559
Speaker 4: but Krewe farmers need to get theirs down to zero

1513
01:11:51,640 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 4: point seventy five, which is a lot lower. Richard McIntyre

1514
01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:57,080
Speaker 4: as the banking spokesperson for Federated Farmers and with us. Now,

1515
01:11:57,080 --> 01:11:59,960
Speaker 4: hey Richard, Hey, Heather, why are they doing this?

1516
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:03,920
Speaker 31: Oh look, it's a case of over each and double

1517
01:12:03,920 --> 01:12:06,120
Speaker 31: standards unfortunately from the banks.

1518
01:12:07,479 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, you know, we really.

1519
01:12:08,880 --> 01:12:11,400
Speaker 31: Do question why exactly why they would be wanting to

1520
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:14,839
Speaker 31: do this. You know, what's the bank's place being involved

1521
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:18,080
Speaker 31: in setting emissions targets for anyone in all reality, you know,

1522
01:12:18,160 --> 01:12:20,720
Speaker 31: as farmers, we've already got the government sitting targets for us,

1523
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 31: and we've also got our processes and meat companies sitting

1524
01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:25,880
Speaker 31: targets for us. So what's the bank's place within this?

1525
01:12:26,040 --> 01:12:26,840
Speaker 1: It makes no sense.

1526
01:12:26,920 --> 01:12:28,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with you on that. But what is

1527
01:12:28,560 --> 01:12:31,240
Speaker 4: their argument for why they're going harder on KIW dairy farmers?

1528
01:12:31,320 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 4: Is it because they are saying it's a ten percent

1529
01:12:34,040 --> 01:12:36,360
Speaker 4: cut for each and a ten percent cut just lands there?

1530
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 4: Is that what it is?

1531
01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 31: Yeah, that's right, So I guess they're trying for the

1532
01:12:40,640 --> 01:12:44,720
Speaker 31: same amount of reduction across both industries. But the fact

1533
01:12:44,720 --> 01:12:46,840
Speaker 31: of the matter is we're so much more efficient than

1534
01:12:47,200 --> 01:12:50,639
Speaker 31: the Australian dairy farmers are and so we've already pulled

1535
01:12:50,680 --> 01:12:52,880
Speaker 31: so many leavers that there are to be pulled through

1536
01:12:53,160 --> 01:12:56,680
Speaker 31: the efficiency gains that we've had, and it's a lot

1537
01:12:56,720 --> 01:12:58,880
Speaker 31: harder for us to make these reductions. So it's really

1538
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:00,599
Speaker 31: just a case of double stands from the banks.

1539
01:13:00,720 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 4: Okay, have they explained this to you?

1540
01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:04,679
Speaker 1: No, not very well.

1541
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:06,639
Speaker 31: We're still waiting for a little bit more detail as

1542
01:13:06,640 --> 01:13:09,600
Speaker 31: to exactly why they've done it like this, how they

1543
01:13:09,720 --> 01:13:11,600
Speaker 31: expecting us to be able to achieve that that, and

1544
01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:15,080
Speaker 31: probably more importantly, exactly how they intend to enforce it.

1545
01:13:15,200 --> 01:13:18,200
Speaker 31: You know, are they going to begin putting excessive pressure

1546
01:13:18,600 --> 01:13:21,679
Speaker 31: on farmers that are struggling to pull enough leavers to

1547
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:24,400
Speaker 31: meet their targets? Is it going to put more stress

1548
01:13:24,439 --> 01:13:25,400
Speaker 31: on farming families?

1549
01:13:25,640 --> 01:13:28,559
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, what's the most likely way of enforcement? Isn't

1550
01:13:28,600 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 4: it to just pull the loan or not give the loan?

1551
01:13:31,439 --> 01:13:35,160
Speaker 31: Look exactly. You know, the Banking Inquiry shows that, you know,

1552
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:37,559
Speaker 31: farming families are under so much pressure from banks at

1553
01:13:37,560 --> 01:13:41,439
Speaker 31: the moment due to various factors, and this is yet

1554
01:13:41,439 --> 01:13:43,479
Speaker 31: another one that the banks are putting on farmers which

1555
01:13:43,479 --> 01:13:44,639
Speaker 31: is really just very unfair.

1556
01:13:44,840 --> 01:13:46,800
Speaker 4: Is the Banking Inquiry going to get into this?

1557
01:13:48,160 --> 01:13:50,600
Speaker 31: I really hope so, it's Sydney in our submission. You know,

1558
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:54,320
Speaker 31: I think all the discussion about CEO's salaries is really

1559
01:13:54,439 --> 01:13:56,880
Speaker 31: just a side show, and you know, I really hope

1560
01:13:56,880 --> 01:14:01,200
Speaker 31: the Banking Inquiry or the Select Committee focus on issues

1561
01:14:01,320 --> 01:14:03,960
Speaker 31: like this so that we can dig down into it,

1562
01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:07,160
Speaker 31: understand why, and really hold the banks to account around this,

1563
01:14:07,320 --> 01:14:10,800
Speaker 31: because you know, it serves no benefit beyond, you know,

1564
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:13,599
Speaker 31: virtue signaling. As far as I'm concerned, May, I'm with.

1565
01:14:13,600 --> 01:14:13,960
Speaker 1: You on this.

1566
01:14:14,040 --> 01:14:17,920
Speaker 4: Thank you very much. Richard McIntyre, Federated Farmer's Banking spokesperson. Listen,

1567
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:20,080
Speaker 4: I got a lot of Textsman Morris Williamson was on

1568
01:14:20,120 --> 01:14:21,559
Speaker 4: the show before, and I want to get some of

1569
01:14:21,560 --> 01:14:22,719
Speaker 4: them to you, So I'm going to do it before

1570
01:14:22,720 --> 01:14:24,280
Speaker 4: this half hours through, but I need to give you

1571
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:27,599
Speaker 4: an update on what's happening with the election results rolling in.

1572
01:14:28,200 --> 01:14:30,240
Speaker 4: Carmala Harrison in terms of the numbers that she is

1573
01:14:30,280 --> 01:14:32,680
Speaker 4: getting in the Electoral College has closed the gap with

1574
01:14:32,720 --> 01:14:35,719
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. So he's sitting on two thirty. She's sitting

1575
01:14:35,720 --> 01:14:38,519
Speaker 4: on two ten, and remember they have to get to

1576
01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:41,479
Speaker 4: two seventy. Now, the three states that everybody's keeping a

1577
01:14:41,560 --> 01:14:43,240
Speaker 4: very close eye on because these are the states that

1578
01:14:43,280 --> 01:14:45,080
Speaker 4: can help her out and if she loses them then

1579
01:14:45,160 --> 01:14:50,160
Speaker 4: she's absolutely stuffed are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin,

1580
01:14:51,360 --> 01:14:53,320
Speaker 4: most of the votes have been countered that three quarters

1581
01:14:53,320 --> 01:14:55,320
Speaker 4: of the way through. Now Trump's on fifty one, She's

1582
01:14:55,360 --> 01:14:58,479
Speaker 4: on forty seven, so he is likely at the stage

1583
01:14:58,479 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 4: to take Wisconsin, but there's an outside chance for her Michigan,

1584
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,320
Speaker 4: just about half the votes have been counted. He's on

1585
01:15:04,360 --> 01:15:06,240
Speaker 4: fifty two, she's on forty six. She still has a

1586
01:15:06,320 --> 01:15:08,040
Speaker 4: chance there because anything can happen with half the votes

1587
01:15:08,120 --> 01:15:11,240
Speaker 4: yet to count. Pennsylvania, eighty six percent of the votes

1588
01:15:11,240 --> 01:15:13,360
Speaker 4: have been counted. He's on fifty one, she's on forty eight.

1589
01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:15,439
Speaker 4: So chances are he takes it. But if she gets

1590
01:15:15,439 --> 01:15:18,640
Speaker 4: some of those big ballots coming through, maybe there's an

1591
01:15:18,680 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 4: outside chance. The New York Times is calling it now

1592
01:15:25,080 --> 01:15:30,000
Speaker 4: a ninety percent chance of Donald Trump winning with three

1593
01:15:30,120 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 4: hundred and one Electoral College votes and still has them

1594
01:15:33,360 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 4: on track to win the popular vote. The impact of

1595
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:38,200
Speaker 4: a Donald Trump presidency on New Zealand is now the

1596
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:40,240
Speaker 4: thing we're interested in. Tim Grosser will talk us through

1597
01:15:40,280 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 4: that next sixteen.

1598
01:15:41,000 --> 01:15:45,240
Speaker 3: Pas six analysis from the experts, bringing you everything you

1599
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:47,960
Speaker 3: need to know on the US election. It's The Business

1600
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:52,040
Speaker 3: Hour with Heather Duplicy, Allen and my THEHR solution for

1601
01:15:52,120 --> 01:15:53,719
Speaker 3: busy SMEs news talks.

1602
01:15:53,760 --> 01:15:54,160
Speaker 1: They'd be.

1603
01:15:56,200 --> 01:15:58,519
Speaker 4: I listen, Thomas Coglan just a reminder will be with

1604
01:15:58,600 --> 01:16:02,080
Speaker 4: us out of Kamela Harris hq in. I'm just shy

1605
01:16:02,160 --> 01:16:05,320
Speaker 4: of thirty minutes now it's at the moment nineteen past six,

1606
01:16:05,360 --> 01:16:07,880
Speaker 4: New Zealand businesses are waiting with bated breath to see

1607
01:16:07,880 --> 01:16:09,680
Speaker 4: who's going to become the president in the US. And

1608
01:16:09,720 --> 01:16:11,880
Speaker 4: obviously it looks like Donald Trump is going to take it.

1609
01:16:12,080 --> 01:16:15,680
Speaker 4: Tim Grosser is a former trade minister and former ambassador

1610
01:16:15,760 --> 01:16:17,320
Speaker 4: to the US and with US now. Tim, thanks for

1611
01:16:17,320 --> 01:16:18,680
Speaker 4: being with us. I really appreciate it.

1612
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:19,280
Speaker 8: Pleasure.

1613
01:16:19,520 --> 01:16:20,360
Speaker 4: Do you see this coming?

1614
01:16:21,720 --> 01:16:22,080
Speaker 1: Well?

1615
01:16:23,320 --> 01:16:27,360
Speaker 26: I saw the data and studied the data very very carefully,

1616
01:16:27,880 --> 01:16:31,840
Speaker 26: and in particular the ninety three electoral College votes in

1617
01:16:31,880 --> 01:16:35,479
Speaker 26: the seven swing states, all of which had up until

1618
01:16:35,479 --> 01:16:39,120
Speaker 26: about a week ago, Trump marginally leading, and for sophisticated

1619
01:16:39,160 --> 01:16:43,000
Speaker 26: reasons that political scientists much better in form than me

1620
01:16:43,080 --> 01:16:47,800
Speaker 26: could tell you a consistent tendency to underestimate Trump. I

1621
01:16:47,880 --> 01:16:50,000
Speaker 26: thought it was more likely he would win. But I

1622
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:52,760
Speaker 26: didn't say it's going to be a Trump walkover. But

1623
01:16:52,880 --> 01:16:55,880
Speaker 26: I thought the numbers implied what appears to be playing

1624
01:16:55,880 --> 01:16:58,479
Speaker 26: out on the screen. The other broader point I've been

1625
01:16:58,520 --> 01:17:01,559
Speaker 26: making is, you know you can beat You can do

1626
01:17:01,600 --> 01:17:05,040
Speaker 26: a granular dive into data in elections, or you can

1627
01:17:05,080 --> 01:17:08,519
Speaker 26: look at the bigger picture. And to me, the issue

1628
01:17:08,600 --> 01:17:12,639
Speaker 26: is if you are the incumbent, and the underlying mood

1629
01:17:12,680 --> 01:17:15,200
Speaker 26: of the New Zealand electorate, or the British electorate or

1630
01:17:15,240 --> 01:17:18,919
Speaker 26: the American electorate is this is no time to change horses.

1631
01:17:19,200 --> 01:17:22,800
Speaker 26: You're in good check. If it's throw the bums out,

1632
01:17:23,240 --> 01:17:25,320
Speaker 26: you're in trouble no matter who you are. And I

1633
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:28,840
Speaker 26: have used this analogy, real world analogy before. I asked

1634
01:17:28,840 --> 01:17:31,640
Speaker 26: my father when I was eighteen years old and he

1635
01:17:31,720 --> 01:17:33,759
Speaker 26: was old enough to vote. He was born in London,

1636
01:17:34,120 --> 01:17:36,120
Speaker 26: old enough to vote for the first time in nineteen

1637
01:17:36,120 --> 01:17:40,799
Speaker 26: forty five, and Winston Churchill was standing on his record.

1638
01:17:40,920 --> 01:17:44,080
Speaker 26: You cannot get a better record for an incumbent than

1639
01:17:44,120 --> 01:17:47,160
Speaker 26: having saved Western civilization. I'm sorry, so I said, Dad,

1640
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:49,600
Speaker 26: did you vote for Winston? And he said, ah, no,

1641
01:17:50,439 --> 01:17:52,600
Speaker 26: we were appreciative of what Winston had done, but we

1642
01:17:52,680 --> 01:17:55,720
Speaker 26: want to change. So my argument has been to a

1643
01:17:55,760 --> 01:18:01,559
Speaker 26: few people. If Winston Bloody Churchill cannot withstand the mood

1644
01:18:01,640 --> 01:18:06,920
Speaker 26: for change, no politician can. So I mean, I think

1645
01:18:07,160 --> 01:18:10,760
Speaker 26: there'll be some really interesting and bitter stuff happens within

1646
01:18:10,800 --> 01:18:15,200
Speaker 26: the Democratic Party as this unfolds if he wins. But

1647
01:18:15,520 --> 01:18:18,840
Speaker 26: the cardinal mistake they made was to screw up the

1648
01:18:18,880 --> 01:18:22,400
Speaker 26: selection process and put in a candidate that was never

1649
01:18:22,479 --> 01:18:25,800
Speaker 26: going to succeed in presenting herself as a candidate to change.

1650
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:28,240
Speaker 4: You think they should have had I had an open contest,

1651
01:18:28,280 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 4: not just.

1652
01:18:28,520 --> 01:18:32,120
Speaker 26: To oh yeah, but I mean, look, we'll wait and

1653
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:34,679
Speaker 26: see how this pans out in terms of the internal

1654
01:18:35,080 --> 01:18:38,240
Speaker 26: debate in the Democratic Party. But the original mistake probably

1655
01:18:38,280 --> 01:18:42,799
Speaker 26: is about two years ago. Because I agree that Gavin Newsom,

1656
01:18:42,840 --> 01:18:45,519
Speaker 26: the governor of California, and the person that I think

1657
01:18:45,560 --> 01:18:48,519
Speaker 26: has got amazing political talent in the United States, who

1658
01:18:48,560 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 26: is Gretchen Whitmore, the governor of Michigan. I mean, either

1659
01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:54,439
Speaker 26: of those would have been able to present it as

1660
01:18:54,479 --> 01:18:58,599
Speaker 26: a brilliant candidate, a candidate of change without dumping all

1661
01:18:58,600 --> 01:19:01,960
Speaker 26: over the Biden administration. They never had a chance. After

1662
01:19:02,000 --> 01:19:04,840
Speaker 26: the debuk of the Trump Biden debate.

1663
01:19:04,680 --> 01:19:06,120
Speaker 4: Tim, listen, have you got a minute if I take

1664
01:19:06,120 --> 01:19:08,719
Speaker 4: a break now to come back to you. Absolutely hang about,

1665
01:19:08,720 --> 01:19:10,040
Speaker 4: don't go anywhere. Six to twenty.

1666
01:19:09,840 --> 01:19:13,479
Speaker 3: Two, getting ready for a new administration in the US.

1667
01:19:13,800 --> 01:19:15,000
Speaker 1: What will be the impact?

1668
01:19:15,200 --> 01:19:18,479
Speaker 3: It's the Business Hour with Hither Dupless Allen and my

1669
01:19:18,800 --> 01:19:22,160
Speaker 3: HR the HR solution for busy SMEs news talks.

1670
01:19:22,200 --> 01:19:22,800
Speaker 14: That'd be right.

1671
01:19:22,840 --> 01:19:24,840
Speaker 4: We're back with Tim gross A, former trade minister, former

1672
01:19:24,840 --> 01:19:28,120
Speaker 4: ambassadors to the US. Tim. So, let's assume that Donald

1673
01:19:28,160 --> 01:19:30,559
Speaker 4: Trump becomes the president. Most likely outcome at the moment

1674
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:32,760
Speaker 4: he has the Senate, he also has the House. He

1675
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:34,600
Speaker 4: can do everything he wants. Does he go ahead with

1676
01:19:34,600 --> 01:19:35,439
Speaker 4: the tariffs quickly?

1677
01:19:36,680 --> 01:19:41,080
Speaker 26: Well, he'll certainly try. There are massive problems which he,

1678
01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:44,200
Speaker 26: of course is completely unaware of. I mean, I simply

1679
01:19:44,280 --> 01:19:46,760
Speaker 26: don't believe for one minute he can implement the full

1680
01:19:46,840 --> 01:19:50,040
Speaker 26: force of what he's proposing, which would be utter madness

1681
01:19:50,360 --> 01:19:52,680
Speaker 26: and do enormous damage to the American people if he

1682
01:19:52,760 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 26: tried to do it. Don't forget this. Fifty percent of

1683
01:19:55,320 --> 01:19:57,800
Speaker 26: the imports coming into the United States are what to

1684
01:19:57,880 --> 01:20:03,360
Speaker 26: call intermediate goods, meaning ain't sort of sausages and cell phones.

1685
01:20:03,400 --> 01:20:05,920
Speaker 26: It's the things that go into make sausages like New

1686
01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:09,160
Speaker 26: Zealand meat, and the things that go into make handphones.

1687
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:13,920
Speaker 26: And you increase the price of those, what the hell

1688
01:20:14,000 --> 01:20:16,920
Speaker 26: do the companies who are buying these so called intermediate

1689
01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:19,760
Speaker 26: goods do. They'll pass the costs on, of course they will.

1690
01:20:20,000 --> 01:20:22,759
Speaker 26: And the idea that suddenly there's going to be American

1691
01:20:22,800 --> 01:20:25,519
Speaker 26: companies that say, oh, we can produce all the bits

1692
01:20:25,560 --> 01:20:28,400
Speaker 26: that go into the handphone. Do you really think commercially

1693
01:20:28,439 --> 01:20:30,400
Speaker 26: they're going to take that risk when they know there's

1694
01:20:30,439 --> 01:20:34,120
Speaker 26: retaliation coming down. So this is this is not going

1695
01:20:34,160 --> 01:20:38,360
Speaker 26: to work. But as he follows this absurd policy, you

1696
01:20:38,400 --> 01:20:40,320
Speaker 26: can break a lot of stuff in the process.

1697
01:20:40,400 --> 01:20:42,320
Speaker 4: Do you think, though, that he's open to having to

1698
01:20:42,400 --> 01:20:43,320
Speaker 4: being changed on it?

1699
01:20:43,640 --> 01:20:46,479
Speaker 26: Does he s try? Yes, yes, he is open, And

1700
01:20:46,520 --> 01:20:49,599
Speaker 26: this is I mean the classic example of this is

1701
01:20:50,560 --> 01:20:54,960
Speaker 26: You've got this gigantic FTA called the NAFTA that unites

1702
01:20:55,040 --> 01:20:59,920
Speaker 26: the Mexican, Canadian and US economies, and over twenty years,

1703
01:21:00,360 --> 01:21:04,080
Speaker 26: supply chains have grown up of great complexity. Trump becomes

1704
01:21:04,080 --> 01:21:08,520
Speaker 26: the president's with the same protectionist mindset, says this agreement

1705
01:21:08,800 --> 01:21:11,960
Speaker 26: is the worst agreement that mankind has ever seen on

1706
01:21:12,040 --> 01:21:14,559
Speaker 26: the planet. I'm going to smash it. Then he gets

1707
01:21:14,600 --> 01:21:18,760
Speaker 26: kind of pressure from Justin Trudeau and from the Mexicans.

1708
01:21:19,400 --> 01:21:23,280
Speaker 26: Then he's forced to backtrack. A renegotiation takes place, which

1709
01:21:23,320 --> 01:21:26,519
Speaker 26: is now quote, the greatest trade agreement that has ever

1710
01:21:26,560 --> 01:21:29,400
Speaker 26: been negotiated, eighty five percent of which is identical to

1711
01:21:29,439 --> 01:21:33,639
Speaker 26: the old one. So in that sense, yes, you are right.

1712
01:21:34,640 --> 01:21:38,280
Speaker 26: He will face a lot of pushback, not just externally

1713
01:21:38,320 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 26: but internally to this. So I think the net how

1714
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:45,360
Speaker 26: I net this out? It's all bad. It's not going

1715
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:48,280
Speaker 26: to be literally the full Monty that he's put on

1716
01:21:48,600 --> 01:21:51,400
Speaker 26: the table. But there's no good can come out of this.

1717
01:21:51,479 --> 01:21:53,000
Speaker 26: It's just a question of how bad is it going

1718
01:21:53,080 --> 01:21:56,160
Speaker 26: to be on there. But look, that's not my overarching

1719
01:21:56,240 --> 01:21:59,400
Speaker 26: concern right now. My overarching concern is much bigger than

1720
01:21:59,400 --> 01:22:02,920
Speaker 26: trade and he can which is what it's the international

1721
01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:05,200
Speaker 26: security situation because.

1722
01:22:04,920 --> 01:22:07,360
Speaker 4: So hes he delays, bad things happen.

1723
01:22:07,560 --> 01:22:10,320
Speaker 26: But first of all, we've got a massive immediate problem

1724
01:22:10,360 --> 01:22:13,120
Speaker 26: on our hands if he's the president, because everyone knows

1725
01:22:13,160 --> 01:22:15,880
Speaker 26: that's where the US is going under a Trump administration.

1726
01:22:16,360 --> 01:22:19,920
Speaker 26: And we've got two months of the lamb duck period

1727
01:22:20,000 --> 01:22:26,599
Speaker 26: where technically the gravely weakened Biden Harris presidency is still

1728
01:22:26,640 --> 01:22:28,880
Speaker 26: in charge of the United States. Meanwhile, we've got a

1729
01:22:28,920 --> 01:22:30,599
Speaker 26: war in Europe and a war in the Middle East,

1730
01:22:30,640 --> 01:22:35,120
Speaker 26: which are the most serious wars that we've seen threatening

1731
01:22:35,160 --> 01:22:39,640
Speaker 26: global peace and stability in seventy years in my personal opinion. So,

1732
01:22:40,280 --> 01:22:43,519
Speaker 26: and the other thing is this heather that both of

1733
01:22:43,560 --> 01:22:46,880
Speaker 26: the key to decision makers putin and NITNYA who are

1734
01:22:46,960 --> 01:22:49,920
Speaker 26: watching Trump above all else for their decision do I

1735
01:22:50,040 --> 01:22:51,400
Speaker 26: escalate or do I negotiate?

1736
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:52,920
Speaker 4: Not Tim, thank you will have to leave it there.

1737
01:22:52,920 --> 01:22:55,519
Speaker 4: I could talk forever with you, Tim Gross. The headline's next.

1738
01:22:58,880 --> 01:23:02,120
Speaker 3: Analysis from the bringing you everything you need to know

1739
01:23:02,240 --> 01:23:05,799
Speaker 3: on the US election. It's the Business Hour with Heather Duplicy,

1740
01:23:05,920 --> 01:23:07,719
Speaker 3: Allen and my Hr Ehr.

1741
01:23:07,880 --> 01:23:10,519
Speaker 1: Solution for busy SMEs news talks. They'd be.

1742
01:23:12,920 --> 01:23:21,640
Speaker 11: Us right.

1743
01:23:21,680 --> 01:23:24,440
Speaker 4: We'll have Gavin Gray out of the UK shortly.

1744
01:23:24,640 --> 01:23:24,800
Speaker 25: Now.

1745
01:23:24,800 --> 01:23:27,839
Speaker 4: An interesting thing is happening. Okay, this is reed Georgia.

1746
01:23:27,960 --> 01:23:33,799
Speaker 4: No network who has oh, CNN has just called Georgia.

1747
01:23:34,120 --> 01:23:35,799
Speaker 4: I'm glad you told me that, Laura of the producer,

1748
01:23:35,800 --> 01:23:38,040
Speaker 4: because I was just about to say, no network has

1749
01:23:38,040 --> 01:23:40,679
Speaker 4: called the outcome of the Georgia election yet, obviously except

1750
01:23:40,680 --> 01:23:42,880
Speaker 4: for CNN. And this is one of the swing states

1751
01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:46,120
Speaker 4: where it is still very close. Interestingly, though, Georgia Secretary

1752
01:23:46,160 --> 01:23:48,960
Speaker 4: of State Brad Rathensburger said this in a press conference.

1753
01:23:49,880 --> 01:23:52,000
Speaker 21: Also, if you look at who's leading the rest right now,

1754
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:56,640
Speaker 21: Donte Trump has an insurmountable lead, with a number of

1755
01:23:56,680 --> 01:23:58,280
Speaker 21: books outstanding.

1756
01:23:57,960 --> 01:24:00,600
Speaker 4: And the reason he's saying it's insurmountable. Listen to what

1757
01:24:00,680 --> 01:24:03,439
Speaker 4: CNN has said about this important information in Georgia.

1758
01:24:03,439 --> 01:24:06,880
Speaker 9: I'm getting from Gabriel Stirling, the top election official there.

1759
01:24:06,880 --> 01:24:09,519
Speaker 9: The margin right now in Georgia is one hundred and

1760
01:24:09,520 --> 01:24:14,120
Speaker 9: eighteen thousand votes right. One hundred and thousand votes are

1761
01:24:14,160 --> 01:24:15,439
Speaker 9: outstanding right now.

1762
01:24:15,479 --> 01:24:17,280
Speaker 4: So if his leader is one hundred and eighteen thousand

1763
01:24:17,360 --> 01:24:19,880
Speaker 4: votes and they have one hundred thousand to count, there's

1764
01:24:19,920 --> 01:24:21,479
Speaker 4: no way even if she won every single one of

1765
01:24:21,520 --> 01:24:23,519
Speaker 4: those votes, he would still be leading by eighteen thousand,

1766
01:24:23,560 --> 01:24:26,160
Speaker 4: impossible for her to win. Therefore, he gets it. So

1767
01:24:26,200 --> 01:24:29,160
Speaker 4: according to CNN, remember they have to get to two seventy.

1768
01:24:29,520 --> 01:24:31,880
Speaker 4: He's on two four six, two hundred and forty six,

1769
01:24:32,080 --> 01:24:34,240
Speaker 4: she's on one hundred and eighty two. He needs another

1770
01:24:34,360 --> 01:24:37,080
Speaker 4: twenty four Electoral College votes, and he's over the line,

1771
01:24:37,120 --> 01:24:43,799
Speaker 4: and he takes the thing twenty two away from seven. Okay,

1772
01:24:43,880 --> 01:24:45,680
Speaker 4: we're hearing, we're just gonna go straight to Thomas. Why

1773
01:24:45,680 --> 01:24:48,240
Speaker 4: not that little thingy thing didn't work? We're hearing. Kamala Harris,

1774
01:24:48,280 --> 01:24:51,040
Speaker 4: by the way, is not planning on speaking tonight. Donald

1775
01:24:51,080 --> 01:24:54,120
Speaker 4: Trump is on his way to his party. Thomas Coglin

1776
01:24:54,240 --> 01:24:57,679
Speaker 4: is at the Kamala Harris HQ. Hey Thomas, Hey, Ever,

1777
01:24:58,560 --> 01:25:00,280
Speaker 4: what's the vibe I heard that they can all to

1778
01:25:00,280 --> 01:25:01,960
Speaker 4: see an inn feed and the pumping the music to

1779
01:25:02,000 --> 01:25:03,040
Speaker 4: trying to hype you guys up.

1780
01:25:04,280 --> 01:25:07,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, that pumping Adele Heather who comes to dele to

1781
01:25:07,439 --> 01:25:08,439
Speaker 2: get people hyped up?

1782
01:25:08,640 --> 01:25:10,479
Speaker 4: Is it a sad adele song? Or is it like

1783
01:25:10,479 --> 01:25:11,519
Speaker 4: a happy breakup song?

1784
01:25:12,080 --> 01:25:14,840
Speaker 2: Well, it's rolling, it was rolling in the deeps, which

1785
01:25:15,040 --> 01:25:17,360
Speaker 2: it's it's just like it's upseeat but the lyrics coming

1786
01:25:17,400 --> 01:25:20,559
Speaker 2: grim yep, you know, yep. So I have to say

1787
01:25:20,600 --> 01:25:22,599
Speaker 2: it didn't work. But what I'm looking at right now

1788
01:25:22,720 --> 01:25:25,040
Speaker 2: is so the bit in front of the stage with

1789
01:25:25,160 --> 01:25:28,000
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris was due to speak that better, the that

1790
01:25:28,160 --> 01:25:31,040
Speaker 2: that bit of the university who had been empty most

1791
01:25:31,040 --> 01:25:34,080
Speaker 2: of the night. In about eleven o'clock, Kamala Harris's campaign

1792
01:25:34,120 --> 01:25:37,759
Speaker 2: staff filed into getting radio. I suppose maybe the here speak,

1793
01:25:37,840 --> 01:25:40,320
Speaker 2: maybe a couple of hundred of them filed in or

1794
01:25:40,360 --> 01:25:43,920
Speaker 2: wearing MVP lanyards. I'm now watching them file out again.

1795
01:25:44,479 --> 01:25:46,800
Speaker 2: A lot of those, a lot of those campaign staff

1796
01:25:46,840 --> 01:25:48,880
Speaker 2: appear to be sort of giving up now whether that's

1797
01:25:48,880 --> 01:25:51,120
Speaker 2: that's definitely an indication that she's not speaking tonight. That

1798
01:25:51,560 --> 01:25:54,519
Speaker 2: does sort of feel like I'm hitting that way. You know,

1799
01:25:54,880 --> 01:25:58,000
Speaker 2: I don't even know that, but regardless, I'm watching maybe

1800
01:25:58,160 --> 01:26:03,360
Speaker 2: fifty or sixty campaign staff just leave elsewhere in the university.

1801
01:26:03,360 --> 01:26:07,080
Speaker 2: There maybe a couple of thousand students students here, and

1802
01:26:07,120 --> 01:26:09,160
Speaker 2: they are just quiet. You know, have you ever seen

1803
01:26:09,200 --> 01:26:12,120
Speaker 2: two thousand students be absolutely definitely quiet?

1804
01:26:12,240 --> 01:26:14,240
Speaker 4: What does this tell you, Thomas? Is this like an

1805
01:26:14,280 --> 01:26:17,000
Speaker 4: acceptance that it's all over and there is no chance?

1806
01:26:17,120 --> 01:26:20,519
Speaker 4: Or or is it like, is there just the outside

1807
01:26:20,520 --> 01:26:22,000
Speaker 4: of people believing there's an outside chance?

1808
01:26:22,920 --> 01:26:22,960
Speaker 28: No?

1809
01:26:23,120 --> 01:26:26,640
Speaker 2: I I mean, look look at studentalistically, you've got to

1810
01:26:26,640 --> 01:26:30,000
Speaker 2: look at those numbers and say, like, credibly, credibly, there

1811
01:26:30,040 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 2: is a there is a tiny path to victory for

1812
01:26:32,439 --> 01:26:37,559
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris, but obviously it's pretty narrow, and it looks like,

1813
01:26:38,520 --> 01:26:40,400
Speaker 2: by far and away, the most likely outcome of this

1814
01:26:40,479 --> 01:26:43,040
Speaker 2: election is that Donald Trump's going to win. And actually,

1815
01:26:43,040 --> 01:26:45,680
Speaker 2: the vibe on the ground here is I think acceptance.

1816
01:26:46,680 --> 01:26:48,840
Speaker 2: I think they're looking at that New York Times needle,

1817
01:26:49,080 --> 01:26:51,600
Speaker 2: They're looking at the pathway the victory narrowing, and and

1818
01:26:51,960 --> 01:26:55,360
Speaker 2: the vibe here feels very much like they have accepted

1819
01:26:55,400 --> 01:26:57,679
Speaker 2: that this is that that this is probably all over.

1820
01:26:57,920 --> 01:27:00,760
Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, Kamala Harris can pay and she seem to

1821
01:27:00,760 --> 01:27:03,960
Speaker 2: have an email maybe half an hour forty five minutes

1822
01:27:04,000 --> 01:27:06,439
Speaker 2: ago saying that that that they always thought the path

1823
01:27:06,479 --> 01:27:10,600
Speaker 2: the victory would lie through those blue Wall states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

1824
01:27:10,800 --> 01:27:14,080
Speaker 2: and Michigan. So they're still hanging on to that host.

1825
01:27:14,120 --> 01:27:16,200
Speaker 2: But gosh, I mean, I'm just as I'm talking to you,

1826
01:27:16,240 --> 01:27:20,040
Speaker 2: even more campaigns start a leaving. But that's you know, honestly,

1827
01:27:20,240 --> 01:27:22,320
Speaker 2: Donald Trump looks like he's seeing pretty well in those states.

1828
01:27:22,320 --> 01:27:24,080
Speaker 2: But even that pathway down in Bochacks, right.

1829
01:27:24,320 --> 01:27:26,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, Now we were told earlier that she was going

1830
01:27:27,000 --> 01:27:28,760
Speaker 4: to speak, and now she's not going to speak. So

1831
01:27:28,800 --> 01:27:30,880
Speaker 4: what happened was that just a miscommunication or was she

1832
01:27:30,920 --> 01:27:32,479
Speaker 4: actually planning to speak and changed her mind.

1833
01:27:33,920 --> 01:27:36,960
Speaker 2: I'm not I actually don't have information on there. I haven't.

1834
01:27:37,680 --> 01:27:40,479
Speaker 2: We're in the media, Pendon, that's keeping us in the

1835
01:27:40,560 --> 01:27:42,120
Speaker 2: dark and all this. I had heard that she was

1836
01:27:42,200 --> 01:27:46,400
Speaker 2: going to speak regardless, because obviously it's pretty important to

1837
01:27:46,800 --> 01:27:50,479
Speaker 2: say something as concession or something. But you know this

1838
01:27:50,479 --> 01:27:53,960
Speaker 2: this campaign email from from the campaign chairs to muddy things,

1839
01:27:54,040 --> 01:27:56,640
Speaker 2: because that suggests that you know, a bit like a

1840
01:27:56,640 --> 01:27:58,920
Speaker 2: bit like last year, they're still seeing a pathway to

1841
01:27:59,000 --> 01:28:01,240
Speaker 2: victory that that they want to make sure as I're

1842
01:28:01,320 --> 01:28:03,639
Speaker 2: both absolutely closed off before they are for any kind

1843
01:28:03,640 --> 01:28:06,280
Speaker 2: of confession. It's also it's just approaching midnight here, so

1844
01:28:06,320 --> 01:28:08,400
Speaker 2: maybe they're thinking it's a bit late and they'll do

1845
01:28:08,520 --> 01:28:11,519
Speaker 2: what Hillary Clinton did between sixteen speak in the morning.

1846
01:28:12,240 --> 01:28:15,599
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's an interesting one. At least forty five

1847
01:28:15,640 --> 01:28:18,080
Speaker 2: minutes ago, the campaign was still telling people that they

1848
01:28:18,439 --> 01:28:20,639
Speaker 2: you know, that the pathway the victory that they thought

1849
01:28:20,760 --> 01:28:23,880
Speaker 2: was their main pathway the victory dear scenario number one,

1850
01:28:24,080 --> 01:28:25,439
Speaker 2: they thought that was still open to them.

1851
01:28:25,600 --> 01:28:29,600
Speaker 4: But so, Thomas, what's your plan? How long are you

1852
01:28:29,600 --> 01:28:30,960
Speaker 4: going to stick around listening to Adele?

1853
01:28:32,960 --> 01:28:36,040
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I'm they've changed the Adele and I'm

1854
01:28:36,080 --> 01:28:38,240
Speaker 2: hoping they keep changing the music up. I have heard

1855
01:28:38,360 --> 01:28:43,720
Speaker 2: the same songs by now. I'm going to stay here

1856
01:28:43,800 --> 01:28:44,400
Speaker 2: until it's over.

1857
01:28:45,680 --> 01:28:47,519
Speaker 4: He might be there for a long time. Thomas, thank

1858
01:28:47,560 --> 01:28:51,240
Speaker 4: you very much, Thank you. I really appreciate here a trooper.

1859
01:28:51,280 --> 01:28:54,160
Speaker 4: Thomas Coblan, the deputy political editor at the HEROLD. So

1860
01:28:54,240 --> 01:28:56,920
Speaker 4: this is where the key races are right now. He

1861
01:28:57,000 --> 01:28:59,840
Speaker 4: was mentioning there Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the ones

1862
01:28:59,880 --> 01:29:02,560
Speaker 4: that they're still hoping they might be able to take. Pennsylvania.

1863
01:29:02,600 --> 01:29:07,400
Speaker 4: Trump's leading by three percent. That is eighty six percent counted. Michigan,

1864
01:29:07,479 --> 01:29:11,320
Speaker 4: Trump's leading by six percent, that's fifty six percent counted. Wisconsin.

1865
01:29:11,320 --> 01:29:13,599
Speaker 4: Trump's leading by four percent. That's eighty three percent counted.

1866
01:29:13,600 --> 01:29:20,240
Speaker 4: So he's basically leading in everything. Yeah, should we break

1867
01:29:20,280 --> 01:29:22,080
Speaker 4: it to them? I think Thomas should break it to them.

1868
01:29:22,120 --> 01:29:24,880
Speaker 4: I mean, the fact that they're all depeting, deplarting, departing

1869
01:29:24,960 --> 01:29:28,040
Speaker 4: jesuits a long day, already departing with their MVP lanyards

1870
01:29:28,040 --> 01:29:30,720
Speaker 4: means it's not a good sign. The Trump campaign is

1871
01:29:30,760 --> 01:29:33,040
Speaker 4: loving it. Obviously, they've weighed in on it. One of

1872
01:29:33,040 --> 01:29:36,000
Speaker 4: them has posted. A campaign spokesperson from the Trump campaign

1873
01:29:36,040 --> 01:29:37,880
Speaker 4: has posted, sounds like the joy has left the building.

1874
01:29:37,920 --> 01:29:40,439
Speaker 4: And it does, doesn't it? And now it's turning out.

1875
01:29:40,479 --> 01:29:44,280
Speaker 4: I mean, to be fair, right to the Harris campaign,

1876
01:29:44,720 --> 01:29:48,840
Speaker 4: if they're surprised by the red wave coming at them hard.

1877
01:29:49,280 --> 01:29:51,320
Speaker 4: It does appear that even the Republicans are kind of

1878
01:29:51,320 --> 01:29:53,760
Speaker 4: surprised by how strong he's coming through on the night,

1879
01:29:53,880 --> 01:29:56,439
Speaker 4: because they thought it was going to be a lot

1880
01:29:56,479 --> 01:29:59,920
Speaker 4: closer than it actually is, so much so that Elin

1881
01:30:00,160 --> 01:30:03,040
Speaker 4: Musk sent what he called what is being called an

1882
01:30:03,040 --> 01:30:06,120
Speaker 4: emergency squad to Pennsylvania to basically fix the voting papers

1883
01:30:06,160 --> 01:30:08,720
Speaker 4: that have been rejected for being filled out wrongly. Now,

1884
01:30:08,760 --> 01:30:11,960
Speaker 4: what happens in the states, and certainly in Pennsylvania, is

1885
01:30:11,960 --> 01:30:14,439
Speaker 4: that if there's a mistake on the ballot paper, on

1886
01:30:14,439 --> 01:30:16,960
Speaker 4: the voting paper, they reject that voting paper, and they

1887
01:30:16,960 --> 01:30:19,120
Speaker 4: have a list of people. The election officers keep a

1888
01:30:19,120 --> 01:30:21,360
Speaker 4: list of people who have voted but made mistakes and

1889
01:30:21,400 --> 01:30:24,160
Speaker 4: will not be counted for that reason. So then you're

1890
01:30:24,200 --> 01:30:26,519
Speaker 4: actually allowed, if you're like an official yourself, to go

1891
01:30:26,680 --> 01:30:29,160
Speaker 4: through that list, try to get in contact with the

1892
01:30:29,200 --> 01:30:31,320
Speaker 4: voter and bring them back to fix it. As long

1893
01:30:31,360 --> 01:30:33,960
Speaker 4: as you do that before eight pm on election day.

1894
01:30:34,360 --> 01:30:36,800
Speaker 4: It's a very expensive thing to do. Hardly anyone ever

1895
01:30:36,840 --> 01:30:39,759
Speaker 4: does it because it's so expensive, because because the cost

1896
01:30:39,880 --> 01:30:42,280
Speaker 4: per vote that you managed to get is so high,

1897
01:30:42,439 --> 01:30:44,280
Speaker 4: you've got to employ people to come and go through

1898
01:30:44,280 --> 01:30:45,760
Speaker 4: the list and then track down the people and then

1899
01:30:45,800 --> 01:30:47,880
Speaker 4: bring them back and blah blah blah, and maybe you

1900
01:30:47,960 --> 01:30:50,960
Speaker 4: only end up with, you know, like a handful of votes,

1901
01:30:51,680 --> 01:30:54,280
Speaker 4: tens of votes, maybe hundreds of votes. That's not a

1902
01:30:54,280 --> 01:30:56,479
Speaker 4: lot in a country the size of the US. But

1903
01:30:56,560 --> 01:30:59,200
Speaker 4: Elon Musk is doing this. He's paying a political advisory

1904
01:30:59,200 --> 01:31:02,599
Speaker 4: film called blitz ca Ambassing, to go to Pennsylvania, go

1905
01:31:02,720 --> 01:31:05,680
Speaker 4: through the list, track down voters who they think are

1906
01:31:05,720 --> 01:31:09,479
Speaker 4: Trump voters, have made mistakes, Go track them down, get

1907
01:31:09,479 --> 01:31:12,200
Speaker 4: them back to the booth, get them to fix their mistakes.

1908
01:31:12,560 --> 01:31:15,080
Speaker 4: And because they think even just those few votes may

1909
01:31:15,080 --> 01:31:16,800
Speaker 4: flip things. That is how close they thought it was

1910
01:31:16,840 --> 01:31:18,599
Speaker 4: going to be. But meanwhile, what did I say before?

1911
01:31:18,800 --> 01:31:22,479
Speaker 4: How much is he leading in Pennsylvania by three eighty

1912
01:31:22,479 --> 01:31:24,880
Speaker 4: seven percent counted, sixteen away from seven.

1913
01:31:25,720 --> 01:31:28,600
Speaker 1: Getting ready for a new administration in the US. What

1914
01:31:28,840 --> 01:31:29,759
Speaker 1: will be the impact?

1915
01:31:29,960 --> 01:31:33,800
Speaker 3: It's the Business Hour with Hither Duplessy Allen and MYHR

1916
01:31:34,000 --> 01:31:37,639
Speaker 3: the HR solution for busy SMEs news talks'd be hey.

1917
01:31:37,640 --> 01:31:41,160
Speaker 4: This is Cedric Richmond, who's Harris, the Kamala Harris campaign

1918
01:31:41,240 --> 01:31:42,840
Speaker 4: co chair, just speaking a few minutes ago.

1919
01:31:43,439 --> 01:31:49,000
Speaker 15: We still have votes to count, We still have states

1920
01:31:49,120 --> 01:31:53,479
Speaker 15: that have not been called yet. We will continue overnight

1921
01:31:54,479 --> 01:31:58,799
Speaker 15: to fight to make sure that every vote is counted.

1922
01:32:00,120 --> 01:32:04,680
Speaker 15: Every voice has spoken, so you won't hear from the

1923
01:32:04,800 --> 01:32:11,320
Speaker 15: Vice President tonight, but you will hear from her tomorrow.

1924
01:32:11,560 --> 01:32:15,200
Speaker 15: She will be back here tomorrow to address not only

1925
01:32:15,200 --> 01:32:17,960
Speaker 15: the Hu family, not only to address her support us,

1926
01:32:18,400 --> 01:32:20,040
Speaker 15: but to address the nation.

1927
01:32:21,200 --> 01:32:21,960
Speaker 5: So thank you.

1928
01:32:22,400 --> 01:32:24,360
Speaker 11: We believe in you.

1929
01:32:24,400 --> 01:32:27,720
Speaker 15: May God bless you, May God keep you, and go

1930
01:32:27,960 --> 01:32:29,480
Speaker 15: Hu and go Harris.

1931
01:32:30,680 --> 01:32:31,280
Speaker 5: Thank you all.

1932
01:32:33,240 --> 01:32:35,160
Speaker 4: One of the TV channels on the cable channels is

1933
01:32:35,240 --> 01:32:38,400
Speaker 4: running shots of what's happening at Trump HQ and Harris HQ.

1934
01:32:38,479 --> 01:32:41,440
Speaker 4: Trump HQ is full to the brim of people. It's

1935
01:32:41,600 --> 01:32:43,559
Speaker 4: vibing in there. They're waiting for Donald Trump to arrive.

1936
01:32:43,600 --> 01:32:46,439
Speaker 4: He's on his way. It is dire over at Kamala

1937
01:32:46,479 --> 01:32:48,760
Speaker 4: Harris HQ. It is so empty. I just saw an

1938
01:32:48,800 --> 01:32:51,599
Speaker 4: interior shop before. It's so empty. Now inside you can

1939
01:32:51,640 --> 01:32:53,479
Speaker 4: actually see the rubbish on the ground, which just goes

1940
01:32:53,520 --> 01:32:55,479
Speaker 4: to share how many people have left. Twelve away from

1941
01:32:55,520 --> 01:32:58,280
Speaker 4: seven and Gavin Gray are UK correspondence with us. Now, Hey, Kevin,

1942
01:32:59,560 --> 01:33:01,519
Speaker 4: hi there, you glued to this as well.

1943
01:33:02,920 --> 01:33:03,160
Speaker 5: Well.

1944
01:33:03,200 --> 01:33:06,559
Speaker 32: It's very difficult for the news cycle here because of

1945
01:33:06,600 --> 01:33:09,439
Speaker 32: the timing. It's ten to six in the morning. The

1946
01:33:09,439 --> 01:33:11,960
Speaker 32: newspapers had to sort of put on their front pages

1947
01:33:12,040 --> 01:33:14,679
Speaker 32: guesswork and all the rest. But it's interesting they've actually

1948
01:33:14,720 --> 01:33:18,960
Speaker 32: focused on the social tension in America. The Daily Mail

1949
01:33:19,000 --> 01:33:22,679
Speaker 32: with the headline tinderbox America on knife edge, the Daily

1950
01:33:22,680 --> 01:33:28,160
Speaker 32: Mirror Pray for victory, Brace for chaos, obviously siding there

1951
01:33:28,400 --> 01:33:34,400
Speaker 32: with Kamala Harris, and The Guardian Hope and fear as

1952
01:33:34,439 --> 01:33:36,680
Speaker 32: well with the picture of Kamala Harris. So there is

1953
01:33:36,720 --> 01:33:40,200
Speaker 32: an awful lot of interest of courses. You would expect

1954
01:33:40,240 --> 01:33:43,920
Speaker 32: no reaction from our leaders thus far, but being so

1955
01:33:44,000 --> 01:33:47,760
Speaker 32: early in the morning, that's probably not not terribly unexpected.

1956
01:33:47,800 --> 01:33:50,719
Speaker 32: But I think lots of people obviously it's been massive

1957
01:33:50,800 --> 01:33:53,679
Speaker 32: coverage over here as well. Indeed, people have been complaining

1958
01:33:53,720 --> 01:33:56,920
Speaker 32: probably too much coverage, perhaps even more coverage than our

1959
01:33:57,000 --> 01:34:01,120
Speaker 32: own general election. So yes, we vote for we wait

1960
01:34:01,320 --> 01:34:03,160
Speaker 32: rather for the vote of the Americans.

1961
01:34:03,240 --> 01:34:05,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, it's hard to speak if you're one of

1962
01:34:05,000 --> 01:34:07,360
Speaker 4: the world leaders before Carmela's even spoken, So I could

1963
01:34:07,400 --> 01:34:09,640
Speaker 4: kind of understand that. Listen to what's going on with

1964
01:34:09,720 --> 01:34:11,800
Speaker 4: you guys in your country. I see your government is

1965
01:34:11,840 --> 01:34:14,040
Speaker 4: planning to ditch those smoking band plans.

1966
01:34:15,439 --> 01:34:17,720
Speaker 32: Yes, so a bit of a surprise this because it

1967
01:34:17,760 --> 01:34:20,920
Speaker 32: was well trailed, this to attack on trying to really

1968
01:34:20,960 --> 01:34:24,960
Speaker 32: get people younger people not to smoke, and one of

1969
01:34:24,960 --> 01:34:30,000
Speaker 32: them was to ditch is to get plans to really

1970
01:34:30,080 --> 01:34:33,959
Speaker 32: force people not to smoke outside of hospitals and outside

1971
01:34:34,000 --> 01:34:37,599
Speaker 32: of schools and also in pub gardens. Now, of course

1972
01:34:37,600 --> 01:34:41,240
Speaker 32: you're not allowed to smoke inside a pub, but the

1973
01:34:41,280 --> 01:34:44,320
Speaker 32: government when they first of all thought about banning garden

1974
01:34:44,600 --> 01:34:50,040
Speaker 32: pub and also restaurant restaurant gardens for smoking, I have

1975
01:34:50,160 --> 01:34:52,160
Speaker 32: seen to sort of backtrack on that now with the

1976
01:34:52,200 --> 01:34:54,640
Speaker 32: Health Secretary saying and I quote, you didn't want to

1977
01:34:54,720 --> 01:34:58,679
Speaker 32: cause further harm to the hospitality industry, saying people don't

1978
01:34:58,680 --> 01:35:00,800
Speaker 32: want to see their high streets go down the pan.

1979
01:35:01,600 --> 01:35:04,639
Speaker 32: This is in response to a massive, I think, sort

1980
01:35:04,640 --> 01:35:09,120
Speaker 32: of backlash to those proposals to ban pub garden smoking,

1981
01:35:09,439 --> 01:35:11,519
Speaker 32: just saying look, you know it really is key and

1982
01:35:11,600 --> 01:35:16,160
Speaker 32: at the moment things to their business are extremely sensitive. Indeed,

1983
01:35:16,160 --> 01:35:19,759
Speaker 32: the British Beer and Pub Association representing twenty thousand pubs,

1984
01:35:19,960 --> 01:35:23,120
Speaker 32: said it welcomed the change of heart, adding that pubs

1985
01:35:23,160 --> 01:35:25,720
Speaker 32: would have led to this ban would have led to

1986
01:35:25,800 --> 01:35:29,760
Speaker 32: many pubs shutting their doors and jobs being lost. So

1987
01:35:30,640 --> 01:35:32,559
Speaker 32: we're going to have to see what's what they're going

1988
01:35:32,600 --> 01:35:35,120
Speaker 32: to crack on with now, but the government's certainly having

1989
01:35:35,120 --> 01:35:37,800
Speaker 32: a retake after a lot of feedback that was negative

1990
01:35:38,439 --> 01:35:41,519
Speaker 32: about these pub gardens and restaurant gardens being banned.

1991
01:35:41,600 --> 01:35:43,040
Speaker 4: Yeah too, right, Hey, how's Camilla is?

1992
01:35:43,040 --> 01:35:49,200
Speaker 32: You're right, well, it's interesting that the general thing is

1993
01:35:49,280 --> 01:35:52,640
Speaker 32: it just appears to be a chest infection. But the

1994
01:35:52,680 --> 01:35:55,679
Speaker 32: seventy seven year old has canceled all her appointments this week.

1995
01:35:55,920 --> 01:35:58,439
Speaker 32: This hope she may be able to do something for

1996
01:35:58,520 --> 01:36:04,360
Speaker 32: the forthcoming Remembering Day commemorations coming up. But apparently on

1997
01:36:04,439 --> 01:36:07,440
Speaker 32: the way back from Australia they stopped off at a

1998
01:36:07,439 --> 01:36:10,479
Speaker 32: health spa in India and then on the way back

1999
01:36:10,600 --> 01:36:13,439
Speaker 32: apparently not feeling terribly well either. So she's only being

2000
01:36:13,520 --> 01:36:16,439
Speaker 32: back in the UK short while that this chest infection.

2001
01:36:16,520 --> 01:36:19,800
Speaker 32: According to doctors, they she needs to rest. What we're

2002
01:36:19,840 --> 01:36:22,719
Speaker 32: not being told, because of course it's private, is how

2003
01:36:22,800 --> 01:36:26,080
Speaker 32: and close Charles is getting. King Charles is getting to

2004
01:36:26,160 --> 01:36:30,320
Speaker 32: Queen Camilla because with his cancer treatment he doesn't obviously

2005
01:36:30,360 --> 01:36:32,920
Speaker 32: want to pick up any infections. And the chest infections

2006
01:36:32,960 --> 01:36:35,559
Speaker 32: doing the rounds, the bugs doing the rounds in our

2007
01:36:35,640 --> 01:36:39,400
Speaker 32: early winter here have been really really widespread and also

2008
01:36:39,439 --> 01:36:43,759
Speaker 32: pretty tenacious. Rumors of some sort of chest infections lasting

2009
01:36:43,800 --> 01:36:46,200
Speaker 32: some people several weeks before they could get rid of them.

2010
01:36:46,240 --> 01:36:49,120
Speaker 32: So they're playing on the safe side for the Queen Camilla,

2011
01:36:49,680 --> 01:36:51,960
Speaker 32: and I think she's been told to effectively rest for

2012
01:36:52,000 --> 01:36:52,599
Speaker 32: a few days.

2013
01:36:52,880 --> 01:36:54,479
Speaker 4: Kevin, good to talk to you, mat Thank you very much.

2014
01:36:54,560 --> 01:36:57,200
Speaker 4: Enjoy the election coverage. It's Kevin Gray, a UK correspondent.

2015
01:36:57,560 --> 01:37:00,880
Speaker 4: So Donald Trump is on two thirty officially, but if

2016
01:37:00,880 --> 01:37:02,760
Speaker 4: he gets Georgia, which has been called by CNN, then

2017
01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:04,680
Speaker 4: it takes him up to two forty six. Right, So

2018
01:37:04,720 --> 01:37:07,840
Speaker 4: he needs twenty four more electoral College votes. Basically he

2019
01:37:07,960 --> 01:37:11,360
Speaker 4: just needs a combination of two different states. I mean

2020
01:37:11,720 --> 01:37:13,920
Speaker 4: there is one combo where he made need three states,

2021
01:37:13,920 --> 01:37:17,040
Speaker 4: but he basically needs two different states. Arizona a bit

2022
01:37:17,080 --> 01:37:19,920
Speaker 4: tight at the moment. That's eleven, Pennsylvania nineteen. These are

2023
01:37:19,920 --> 01:37:23,519
Speaker 4: electoral votes Wisconsin on tena Michigan on thirteen. And if

2024
01:37:23,520 --> 01:37:25,840
Speaker 4: he manages to shut down, he's leading in all of them.

2025
01:37:26,320 --> 01:37:28,120
Speaker 4: If he just manages to shut down two of them

2026
01:37:28,160 --> 01:37:31,120
Speaker 4: for himself, he's their home and host eight away from seven.

2027
01:37:32,360 --> 01:37:35,240
Speaker 1: Getting ready for a new administration in the US. What

2028
01:37:35,439 --> 01:37:36,360
Speaker 1: will be the impact.

2029
01:37:36,560 --> 01:37:40,400
Speaker 3: It's The Business Hour with Heather Duplessi, Allen and MYHR

2030
01:37:40,600 --> 01:37:44,320
Speaker 3: the HR solution for busy SMEs News talks'b.

2031
01:37:45,600 --> 01:37:47,840
Speaker 4: It's five away from seven Sorr. I slightly distracted them

2032
01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:51,080
Speaker 4: because it looks like maybe there was an exciting development

2033
01:37:51,160 --> 01:37:53,080
Speaker 4: with CNN calling one of the states for Trump. But no,

2034
01:37:53,120 --> 01:37:54,840
Speaker 4: they haven't. They haven't yet, so we're still standing by

2035
01:37:54,920 --> 01:37:57,120
Speaker 4: for that. We are waiting for Donald Trump to arrive

2036
01:37:57,160 --> 01:37:59,720
Speaker 4: at his headquarters. He is on his way, although he

2037
01:37:59,760 --> 01:38:02,120
Speaker 4: has been on his way for about half an hour's time,

2038
01:38:02,160 --> 01:38:04,200
Speaker 4: so on his way he could be like, I'm on

2039
01:38:04,280 --> 01:38:05,320
Speaker 4: my way. I'm getting out of the bar.

2040
01:38:05,640 --> 01:38:07,320
Speaker 11: Do you think he's walking. He's doing it on foot,

2041
01:38:07,479 --> 01:38:10,040
Speaker 11: and you know, maybe maybe he got lost, like just

2042
01:38:10,120 --> 01:38:11,439
Speaker 11: kind of took the wrong turn and he's having to

2043
01:38:11,439 --> 01:38:11,800
Speaker 11: walk back.

2044
01:38:11,960 --> 01:38:13,920
Speaker 4: Just have it, just waiting for Elon to come get

2045
01:38:14,000 --> 01:38:15,760
Speaker 4: him so they can go together. God only knows me.

2046
01:38:15,760 --> 01:38:16,840
Speaker 8: Maybe the tesla broke down.

2047
01:38:16,880 --> 01:38:20,400
Speaker 4: You're right, yeap, they're still charging the tesla. They are

2048
01:38:20,400 --> 01:38:23,080
Speaker 4: taking their time. But anyway, what's gonna happen is, oh,

2049
01:38:23,080 --> 01:38:25,519
Speaker 4: and Fox is just called Georgia for Trump, So Georgia's

2050
01:38:25,560 --> 01:38:29,040
Speaker 4: definitely Trump's. So two forty sixs has count to forty

2051
01:38:29,080 --> 01:38:31,280
Speaker 4: eight at the moment they've got him on. So what's

2052
01:38:31,280 --> 01:38:33,960
Speaker 4: gonna happen is we're waiting for Donald Trump. If and well,

2053
01:38:34,040 --> 01:38:37,920
Speaker 4: when Donald Trump turns up, we will bring you Donald

2054
01:38:37,960 --> 01:38:42,160
Speaker 4: Trump and in all his absolute gleefuldest snow down, we

2055
01:38:42,240 --> 01:38:44,080
Speaker 4: will bring it to you if it happens within the

2056
01:38:44,080 --> 01:38:46,080
Speaker 4: next fifteen minutes. And I'm gonna hang about it. If it

2057
01:38:46,120 --> 01:38:48,080
Speaker 4: happens within the next fifteen minutes, I'll come back in. Otherwise,

2058
01:38:48,160 --> 01:38:49,880
Speaker 4: Darcy's going to be in charge of that situation. And

2059
01:38:50,080 --> 01:38:50,760
Speaker 4: what have you got?

2060
01:38:51,520 --> 01:38:53,720
Speaker 11: Ojy's for the love of money to play us out tonight,

2061
01:38:53,840 --> 01:38:55,920
Speaker 11: probably better known to most of us as the theme

2062
01:38:56,000 --> 01:38:59,280
Speaker 11: song from the reality show The Apprentice. I had a

2063
01:38:59,360 --> 01:39:01,360
Speaker 11: Lady Gaga song ready to go just in case it

2064
01:39:01,360 --> 01:39:03,800
Speaker 11: went the other way, But I think given the current numbers,

2065
01:39:03,840 --> 01:39:05,200
Speaker 11: let's let's let's go with this one.

2066
01:39:05,320 --> 01:39:08,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, what what is I mean when The New York Times,

2067
01:39:08,920 --> 01:39:11,520
Speaker 4: a bastion of liberal media.

2068
01:39:11,560 --> 01:39:13,599
Speaker 11: Says there is another They got it wrong in twenty

2069
01:39:13,600 --> 01:39:15,839
Speaker 11: sixteen as well. But I think John King on CNN

2070
01:39:15,880 --> 01:39:18,680
Speaker 11: talking about in Wisconsin like Milwaukee is going to have

2071
01:39:18,680 --> 01:39:20,720
Speaker 11: to come out so hard for Harris for her to

2072
01:39:20,720 --> 01:39:23,080
Speaker 11: win that one. I think when you're talking about that,

2073
01:39:23,080 --> 01:39:24,720
Speaker 11: that's more of an indication for me that it's going

2074
01:39:24,760 --> 01:39:25,080
Speaker 11: the other one.

2075
01:39:25,120 --> 01:39:27,360
Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, Or I've just sold on the New York

2076
01:39:27,360 --> 01:39:29,720
Speaker 4: Times Little and Needle because I like a picture and

2077
01:39:29,760 --> 01:39:31,600
Speaker 4: the needle is like ninety.

2078
01:39:31,280 --> 01:39:33,360
Speaker 8: Three per times here.

2079
01:39:33,479 --> 01:39:35,720
Speaker 11: So you always refamiliarize yourself with the US geography as

2080
01:39:35,720 --> 01:39:36,679
Speaker 11: it all turns blue and red.

2081
01:39:36,920 --> 01:39:39,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's cool. Now I know where George is. Anyway,

2082
01:39:40,479 --> 01:39:42,439
Speaker 4: enjoy yourself. I might be back in ten minutes time

2083
01:39:42,479 --> 01:39:45,000
Speaker 4: if Trump he turns up. Otherwise you're with Darcy, but

2084
01:39:45,439 --> 01:39:47,160
Speaker 4: stand by for Trump News Talk ZB.

2085
01:40:00,040 --> 01:40:00,439
Speaker 1: M HM.

2086
01:40:02,920 --> 01:40:06,080
Speaker 3: For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive. Listen live to

2087
01:40:06,160 --> 01:40:09,200
Speaker 3: News Talks at B from four pm weekdays, or follow

2088
01:40:09,240 --> 01:40:10,960
Speaker 3: the podcast on iHeartRadio