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Speaker 1: Shane Soli's with US harbor Esset Management, Shane good Evening.

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Speaker 1: Get it right, Hey, Donald Trump, We've got Liberation Day

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Speaker 1: coming April second, so we're just a few days away. Now,

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Speaker 1: what do we know? What can we say that we

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Speaker 1: know about the tariffs that are potentially coming our way?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's a really good point. So euphemistically Liberation Day,

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Speaker 2: some pretty chunky increases in Twiss Canada, Mexico and China

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Speaker 2: and potentially what they call in the DWTY fifteen a

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Speaker 2: bunch of companies there for more than fifteen percent of

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Speaker 2: persistent trade surpluses with the US. Look for New Zealand,

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Speaker 2: it's a risk, right, We're not directly in the targets

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Speaker 2: of the US twas, but we are exposed to this

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Speaker 2: trade disruption, including this reciprocal trade tarifts, and so we

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Speaker 2: think we're already potentially seeing that slowing pace of recovery

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Speaker 2: in New Zealand economy reflects some of this weariness around tarrace.

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Speaker 2: Business is holding back and the risk for US is

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Speaker 2: that we get caught up in the middle of a

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Speaker 2: global trade war. Look, we're going to find out on

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Speaker 2: Wednesday night in Newson Time. We know that there's lots

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Speaker 2: of room for movement between now and then. Ryan, this

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Speaker 2: is a trade negotiation done by mister Trump. There's lots

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Speaker 2: of things that could move. So that's hard to be definitive,

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Speaker 2: but we are facing a bit of a headpoint.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, what is the head we're going to do to

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Speaker 1: growth forecasts?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think particularly the US, we've already seen a

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Speaker 2: number of forecasters dial back their growth reflecting this tariffs

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Speaker 2: and also the government spending push by the Trump government.

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Speaker 2: So we have seen growth forecasts drop from around five

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Speaker 2: percentage where they currently are to out the next few

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Speaker 2: years right down sort of med fours, and so we

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Speaker 2: are seeing that being a risk for US economic activity.

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Speaker 2: There's a little bit of an offset globally. Certainly we're

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Speaker 2: seeing Europe and China announcing spending increases by their governments,

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Speaker 2: and we've seen a bit of a lifting activity there.

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Speaker 2: But certainly there's a risk to global growth from this

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Speaker 2: US economy coming off what's been a pretty strong run.

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Speaker 1: We've had the A and Z Business Outlooks Survey for

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Speaker 1: the month of March out today. What are we hearing

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Speaker 1: from that?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, you know, again with slightly more business confidence

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Speaker 2: is okay, in new Zeale. We have seen it hold

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Speaker 2: up at positive levels, suggesting there's a bit of a

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Speaker 2: gradual recovery. We're seeing new ze on it's likely to continue.

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Speaker 2: Not all positive. There's an investment in employment intentions a

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Speaker 2: bit of a slip and some pricing intentions going up,

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Speaker 2: so that's something the Reserve Bank will be watching for.

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Speaker 2: But this sort of lead indicator, we're seeing enough positivity

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Speaker 2: coming through and own activity that's the real gauge of

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Speaker 2: how do you think give about your own business? Your

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Speaker 2: own activity that actually increased four points to plus forty nine,

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Speaker 2: so not quite fifty fifty is where we want to

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Speaker 2: see growth, but we're getting back to it.

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Speaker 1: This is obviously the last day of the March quarter.

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Speaker 1: How are capital markets responding. We've got increased uncertainly globally

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Speaker 1: which you've touched on, and got the potential trade terrorifts,

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Speaker 1: but we've also got the geopolitical situation. How are capital

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Speaker 1: markets responding.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a pretty pretty rugged quarter. We certainly

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Speaker 2: seen to invest a risk tolerance for these a lot

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Speaker 2: of growth for quests to come through, so some of

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Speaker 2: the high risk, high growth as it's like, for example,

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Speaker 2: shares making the generally forms what the defensive assets have done,

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Speaker 2: but better it probably the interesting ones of things like

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Speaker 2: the US dollar is this thing called the d x

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Speaker 2: ys US Dollar Index. It's fallen from one hundred and

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Speaker 2: eight at the end of December to one hundred and

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Speaker 2: four and hour, so about four percent. You're kind of

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Speaker 2: a big deal. That's where people park their money when

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Speaker 2: they want to be saved. But what has really performed

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Speaker 2: Ryan's goal up almost seventeen or actually eighteen percent to

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Speaker 2: just add a three thy one hundred US prouns. That

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Speaker 2: just shows how anxious investors are our worried there about

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Speaker 2: this global setting. They've gone back to the og defensive asset.

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Speaker 2: So quite a big spring. We've gone from markets pricing

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Speaker 2: and perfection at the end of December to markets pricing

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Speaker 2: and a degree of chaos at the end of March.

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Speaker 1: Interesting, Shane, Thank you very much for that. Shane, Sally

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Speaker 1: Harbor Asset Management with us on your Monday Evening.

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