1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,920 Speaker 1: Into Operation Midnight Hammer is what they called it. In 2 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: The Americans claim it's complete success. Where we go now 3 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: is the big question. Gil Bundle, as senior fellow with 4 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: the Defense Priority in Washington, he's bank with us. Gil, 5 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: morning to you, Good. 6 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 2: Morning, very well. 7 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: Indeed, the US claim obliteration and the timeline and all 8 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: of that. Is it from your point of view, the 9 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:19,240 Speaker 1: success they claim? 10 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 2: I think that's still to be scene. 11 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 3: I mean, I think a lot of analysts, especially people 12 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 3: with serious chops on nuclear security, would tell you that 13 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 3: these strikes are unlikely to have destroyed everything or obliterated 14 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 3: the program. And even if they did, you know, it's 15 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 3: clear that their onions can reconstitute that they may take 16 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 3: a couple of years. 17 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: But this isn't sort of the end of it, definitively. 18 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: Some sort of suggesting they could have moved stuff. One 19 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: could they? And two if they did, would they have 20 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 1: seen it anyway? The Americans, Yeah, they. 21 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 3: Definitely could have, and that's the story that's coming out 22 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 3: of some outlets. The question is, when I think, if 23 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 3: they did it after the Israelis began their campaign, ability 24 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 3: is really destroyed a huge chunk of Iranian air defenses 25 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 3: and had really, as far as we can tell, kind 26 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 3: of free reign over huge chunks of the country. So 27 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 3: if they were trying to move things after that, if 28 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 3: they were caught flat footed, which a lot of people 29 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 3: have said, then that may be less likely. 30 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: What's that tell us about being able to fly and 31 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: do what they did and fly out and the Iranians 32 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: seemingly did nothing. I mean, what's that tell us about them? 33 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 3: I think that you know, this is kind of a 34 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,640 Speaker 3: continuation of a story that started two years ago now. 35 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: But I think that the ability of the Israelis. 36 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 3: In terms of their intelligence and then their strike packages 37 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: to knock out Iranian air defense and give them free 38 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: rein it speaks to a lack of capability on the 39 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:41,479 Speaker 3: part of the Iranians and how compromised they were by 40 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 3: Israeli intelligence and maybe by US. 41 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 2: But I think the majority of that is on the 42 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 2: on the Israeli side. 43 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: What would you. 44 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 3: They've had, They've had, They've had really free reigns since 45 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 3: that campaign started on July thirteenth, and I think people 46 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 3: didn't really expect that. They expected that Iranian defensive, especially 47 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 3: the stuff they bought from Russia, would have constrained them 48 00:01:57,440 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 3: more what. 49 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: Would you expect, my wife of a response if there 50 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: is one. 51 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: I mean, that's the that's the million dollar question. And 52 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: I wouldn't I wouldn't hazard a prediction. 53 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: But I think that what Iron could do, even in 54 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 3: this severely weakened state, and even having taken the body blows, 55 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 3: the attrition they took to their leadership over the last week, 56 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 3: they have the ability certainly to to throw missiles at 57 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 3: and to do some damage to a lot of really 58 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 3: kind of key US infrastructure and US troops over there, 59 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 3: whether you're talking about Bahrain or Kuwait or the UAE 60 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 3: or even as far as Jordan we have we have 61 00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 3: serious installations cutter as well. 62 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 2: That's less likely because of their relationship with the Cuties. 63 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 3: The other big question is whether they want to close 64 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 3: the straight up or moves and can sprain you know, 65 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 3: global oil supply, whether temporarily or as long as they can. 66 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 3: That's the other huge economic question that since lingering, is. 67 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: It phase to suggest the Iranians talk a big game 68 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 1: and don't often do a lot. 69 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely, And I think this this strike is probably 70 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 3: predicated in a large part on on confidence that that's 71 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 3: how it's going to go, you know, that are on 72 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 3: is two weak and doesn't want to risk a full blown, 73 00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 3: you know, US response and strikes of indeterminate, you know, 74 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 3: indefinite duration. So I think that's that's one of, if 75 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 3: not the major thing that this White House is gambling on. 76 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 3: But I think that's a dangerous assumption given that we're 77 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 3: talking about actual regime regime stability and the continuing continuation 78 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 3: of the Iranian regime. 79 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,639 Speaker 1: That's my next question, what chance regime change. 80 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 3: I'm very skeptical, and most of the folks I talked 81 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 3: to who are legitimately kind of iron experts of all 82 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 3: the internal politics and the state of that country, are 83 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 3: skeptical that that's this is going to work. 84 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 2: I think for two reasons. 85 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 3: One that the Iranians have done it, or the Iranian 86 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 3: regime the government has done a great job of decapitating 87 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 3: not usually not literally, but decapitating opposition movements. You know, 88 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 3: we saw when they had the serious protests last couple 89 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: of years. They've they've done a good job of delegitimizing 90 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 3: and stopping opposition movements. And so if you're taking the 91 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 3: word of kind of emigres, whether it's whether it's raizopoalavian 92 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: Is people, or whether it's the m K or some 93 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 3: other groups, if you think they have a serious constituency, 94 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 3: let alone kind of people inside I on that can 95 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 3: make things happen. 96 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: I'm skeptical of that. And the second piece, of course, 97 00:03:58,960 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 2: is that this. 98 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 3: Is happening at the you know, on the back of 99 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 3: foreign bombs, and those have generally a tendency to unit 100 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 3: a country, at least temporarily. 101 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 1: I don't know if this is a new wheelhouse, but 102 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: Trump domestically, does he have trouble with the dams and 103 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: you know, America First and all that stuff or not? 104 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 2: I think it all. I think it all depends on 105 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 2: how this goes. 106 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 3: If this is it, If it's what they're saying it is, 107 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 3: and there's a there's this one strike package and that's it, 108 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 3: and then the US does nothing further and there is 109 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 3: no major running in response, then I don't think he 110 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 3: has much of a problem, certainly within his own party. 111 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 2: Being said, I can't remember a. 112 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 3: US military intervention that went forward with this little over 113 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 3: public supporting. If you believe the polls you're talking about, 114 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 3: ten to twenty percent of the country is actually in 115 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 3: favor of this so that you know, we went into 116 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 3: the Iraq War, which was obviously a disaster on multiple levels. 117 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 3: You had two thirds of Americans had come to support 118 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: that through whatever means, and this is very different. 119 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: Well, it's a pleasure, Gil, Guy. Well, and we'll catch 120 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 1: up soon. Gil Bundla, who's the former Marine and senior 121 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: fellow at the Defense Priority in Washington. For more from 122 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 1: the Mic Housking Breakfast, listen live to news talks. It'd 123 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: be from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.