WEBVTT - Jimmy Rushton: Foreign policy and security analyst on Russia-Ukraine Easter truce

0:00:09.093 --> 0:00:11.973
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to a podcast from News Talks. It'd be

0:00:12.373 --> 0:00:18.693
<v Speaker 1>follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on Iheartradiotin.

0:00:17.213 --> 0:00:21.253
<v Speaker 2>Surprise Easter truce is being criticized by Ukraine Voladomya Zelenski

0:00:21.253 --> 0:00:24.973
<v Speaker 2>says despite forces being ordered to stop military activity, Russia

0:00:25.013 --> 0:00:28.133
<v Speaker 2>has still been firing. The thirty hour truce was supposed

0:00:28.133 --> 0:00:31.053
<v Speaker 2>to last until nine this morning, New Zealand Time. Joining

0:00:31.053 --> 0:00:34.253
<v Speaker 2>me now is Kiev based foreign policy and security analyst

0:00:34.653 --> 0:00:37.173
<v Speaker 2>Jimmy Rushton. He's with me, Jimmy, Good morning.

0:00:38.093 --> 0:00:40.573
<v Speaker 3>Hi, Oh, good evening. Yes it is in Keef.

0:00:41.373 --> 0:00:44.893
<v Speaker 2>Sorry about that, Yeah, was there any truth at all?

0:00:46.693 --> 0:00:50.893
<v Speaker 3>So there was a suspension of Russian drone and missile

0:00:50.933 --> 0:00:54.933
<v Speaker 3>strokes on Ukraine, so we haven't experienced any air raids,

0:00:54.973 --> 0:00:58.613
<v Speaker 3>which has been a definitely a relief for the civilian population.

0:00:58.893 --> 0:01:01.853
<v Speaker 3>But I've spoken to three separate sources in the Ukrainian

0:01:01.853 --> 0:01:03.933
<v Speaker 3>military who are currently deployed in the front line, and

0:01:03.933 --> 0:01:06.213
<v Speaker 3>they're in different sections of the front and they've all

0:01:06.693 --> 0:01:11.493
<v Speaker 3>experienced Russian assaults, Russian drone strikes on their positions, are

0:01:11.533 --> 0:01:14.773
<v Speaker 3>toy fire, etc. So from their perspective, no, there has

0:01:14.813 --> 0:01:17.933
<v Speaker 3>not been a truce and This really has been another

0:01:18.013 --> 0:01:21.373
<v Speaker 3>case of put In really trying to play the West

0:01:21.373 --> 0:01:23.813
<v Speaker 3>for falls. He's trying to show the Americans that they

0:01:23.813 --> 0:01:26.693
<v Speaker 3>are interested in peace, when in fact they aren't. And

0:01:26.733 --> 0:01:30.013
<v Speaker 3>this is just really another a deception on the Russian part.

0:01:30.293 --> 0:01:32.773
<v Speaker 2>Well, is anyone believing him? What are the Americans are

0:01:32.773 --> 0:01:34.293
<v Speaker 2>talking about getting out of the whole thing? But are

0:01:34.333 --> 0:01:35.533
<v Speaker 2>they believing him? What do they care?

0:01:37.333 --> 0:01:41.613
<v Speaker 3>It's very difficult to say. To be honest, the Americans

0:01:41.613 --> 0:01:46.213
<v Speaker 3>have very sophisticated monitoring, signal intelligence capabilities. They will know

0:01:46.293 --> 0:01:50.013
<v Speaker 3>exactly what's happening. Whether they choose to acknowledge it is

0:01:50.333 --> 0:01:54.093
<v Speaker 3>another matter, because we've seen the Trump administration denied basic

0:01:54.133 --> 0:01:56.613
<v Speaker 3>reality in the past. I remember a couple of weeks

0:01:56.613 --> 0:01:59.893
<v Speaker 3>ago they were talking about Ukrainian soldiers being encircled in Kursk.

0:02:00.453 --> 0:02:05.293
<v Speaker 3>That absolutely did not happen. That never side actually claims

0:02:05.333 --> 0:02:11.253
<v Speaker 3>that it did. So if the Americans choose to trust

0:02:11.293 --> 0:02:14.053
<v Speaker 3>their intelligence, then hopefully they'll understand that you know this,

0:02:14.053 --> 0:02:17.733
<v Speaker 3>this Russian truth is nothing of the sort, and it

0:02:17.773 --> 0:02:20.613
<v Speaker 3>really is a manipulation employed by the Russians to pretend

0:02:20.613 --> 0:02:21.933
<v Speaker 3>that they are ready for a peace deal.

0:02:22.053 --> 0:02:23.613
<v Speaker 2>So it is they monitor and good enough that they

0:02:23.653 --> 0:02:28.173
<v Speaker 2>will know who fired the first shot under the truth of.

0:02:28.093 --> 0:02:31.973
<v Speaker 3>Course, absolutely. I mean they have incredibly sophisticated spice aatellites.

0:02:33.373 --> 0:02:36.653
<v Speaker 3>They will know exactly what's happening, and they have you

0:02:36.733 --> 0:02:40.653
<v Speaker 3>know that they still have advisors in Ukraine. They have

0:02:40.853 --> 0:02:44.613
<v Speaker 3>there's there's regular communication between Ukrainian military and the American military,

0:02:44.893 --> 0:02:48.453
<v Speaker 3>so they will know exactly what's happening. And hopefully that's

0:02:48.493 --> 0:02:51.373
<v Speaker 3>being fed up to the White House and hopefully Trump

0:02:51.413 --> 0:02:54.133
<v Speaker 3>has an accurate summary of what's happening in Ukraine on

0:02:54.173 --> 0:02:55.653
<v Speaker 3>his desk tomorrow morning.

0:02:55.813 --> 0:02:58.613
<v Speaker 2>Hopefully he reads that what about the human I mean,

0:02:58.653 --> 0:03:02.333
<v Speaker 2>what was putin saying in pursuit of something humanitarian? I

0:03:02.373 --> 0:03:03.893
<v Speaker 2>mean I scoffed when I read that. What was your

0:03:03.893 --> 0:03:07.173
<v Speaker 2>response and the response in cave to putin talking about

0:03:07.253 --> 0:03:09.493
<v Speaker 2>humanitarian considerations.

0:03:10.093 --> 0:03:12.773
<v Speaker 3>Well, it's just ridiculous, isn't it. This is a country

0:03:12.773 --> 0:03:16.853
<v Speaker 3>which has stepped up their assaults on civilian areas. I mean,

0:03:16.893 --> 0:03:21.653
<v Speaker 3>it's no accident or coincidence that we've seen multiple mass

0:03:21.653 --> 0:03:25.613
<v Speaker 3>casualty missile strikes in Kluv and Swummi. Recently there was

0:03:25.613 --> 0:03:28.773
<v Speaker 3>that horrific attack which killed nearly forty people. Number of

0:03:28.853 --> 0:03:32.893
<v Speaker 3>children as well. And yeah, we're seeing almost every day

0:03:33.733 --> 0:03:39.333
<v Speaker 3>significant missile strikes, drain strikes on civilian population areas, and yeah,

0:03:39.333 --> 0:03:42.293
<v Speaker 3>I mean again, if Putin was worried about civilian casualties

0:03:42.493 --> 0:03:46.573
<v Speaker 3>and you know the humanitarian cost of this, well, he

0:03:46.573 --> 0:03:49.093
<v Speaker 3>could simply order Russian troops to withdraw to Russia and

0:03:49.133 --> 0:03:50.253
<v Speaker 3>that would be the end of it.

0:03:50.253 --> 0:03:52.493
<v Speaker 2>It almost feels preposterous to sect because we know how

0:03:52.493 --> 0:03:53.973
<v Speaker 2>that's not going to happen, doesn't it. But that is

0:03:53.973 --> 0:03:56.853
<v Speaker 2>the simple question. It's all up to him just get.

0:03:56.693 --> 0:04:00.013
<v Speaker 3>Out exactly exactly. And the thing is, Putin's command of

0:04:00.013 --> 0:04:03.693
<v Speaker 3>the Russian information environment is so complete that he could

0:04:04.653 --> 0:04:07.293
<v Speaker 3>order withdraw tomorrow and then tell the Russian people that

0:04:07.373 --> 0:04:11.333
<v Speaker 3>he's achieved all the objectives of his special medity operations

0:04:11.333 --> 0:04:13.653
<v Speaker 3>he likes to call it, and they probably believe him

0:04:13.773 --> 0:04:17.013
<v Speaker 3>because you know that they the Russian people generally believe

0:04:17.053 --> 0:04:19.453
<v Speaker 3>everything the government tells them because they have an extreme

0:04:19.493 --> 0:04:23.373
<v Speaker 3>sophisticated propagand the network and they're incredibly controlled. So you know,

0:04:23.933 --> 0:04:25.813
<v Speaker 3>it's in his power. He could stop it tomorrow if

0:04:25.813 --> 0:04:28.653
<v Speaker 3>he wanted to, and he is the one person in

0:04:28.693 --> 0:04:30.133
<v Speaker 3>the entire world could stop it tomorrow.

0:04:30.173 --> 0:04:33.813
<v Speaker 2>If he wanted to and Ukraine and Keev. What are

0:04:33.973 --> 0:04:36.613
<v Speaker 2>Ukrainians pulling their hopes on. Is that Europe stepping up

0:04:36.653 --> 0:04:40.173
<v Speaker 2>and potentially some new cruise missiles or are they are

0:04:40.173 --> 0:04:43.213
<v Speaker 2>they assuming that jumps out that the US will just

0:04:43.293 --> 0:04:44.213
<v Speaker 2>quote take a pass.

0:04:45.493 --> 0:04:47.693
<v Speaker 3>I think the Ukraine's are relatively realistic. I don't think

0:04:47.693 --> 0:04:49.933
<v Speaker 3>they're putting their hopes on any one thing. I think

0:04:50.053 --> 0:04:55.573
<v Speaker 3>they understand that really, if this war is going to continue,

0:04:55.693 --> 0:04:59.133
<v Speaker 3>and it looks like it is, it's really going to

0:04:59.133 --> 0:05:02.093
<v Speaker 3>be on them. It's going to be on their mainly,

0:05:02.133 --> 0:05:04.773
<v Speaker 3>I would say their drone production production, because this war

0:05:04.853 --> 0:05:07.453
<v Speaker 3>is now a drone war. It's not really about Artilly anymore.

0:05:07.533 --> 0:05:10.253
<v Speaker 3>Though Artilly is still important. It's now about whoever can

0:05:10.293 --> 0:05:14.053
<v Speaker 3>put the most amount of these small FPV first person

0:05:14.133 --> 0:05:16.853
<v Speaker 3>view drones into the air. And the Ukrainians are making

0:05:17.413 --> 0:05:19.693
<v Speaker 3>they've they've made incredible strides of this, and some of

0:05:19.733 --> 0:05:23.013
<v Speaker 3>their factories are churning out huge amounts of drones four

0:05:23.053 --> 0:05:27.933
<v Speaker 3>thousand a day in some cases. Yeah, they're incredibly impressive.

0:05:28.253 --> 0:05:30.733
<v Speaker 3>So I think for the Ukrainians they understand really that

0:05:31.053 --> 0:05:33.133
<v Speaker 3>nobody is going to come to their aid. There's there's

0:05:33.173 --> 0:05:35.013
<v Speaker 3>going to be support from Europe, but it's not going

0:05:35.053 --> 0:05:37.053
<v Speaker 3>to be the sort of support that's going to win

0:05:37.093 --> 0:05:40.173
<v Speaker 3>the war, so they're really going to have to fight

0:05:39.973 --> 0:05:41.493
<v Speaker 3>for themselves.

0:05:41.773 --> 0:05:44.133
<v Speaker 2>Jimmy, I look out for yourself. I really appreciate your

0:05:44.133 --> 0:05:46.733
<v Speaker 2>time this morning. That's Jimmy Rushton. He is a Key

0:05:46.893 --> 0:05:49.093
<v Speaker 2>based foreign policy and security analyst.

0:05:49.693 --> 0:05:52.333
<v Speaker 1>For more from news talks, it'd be listen live on

0:05:52.453 --> 0:05:55.373
<v Speaker 1>air or online and keep our shows with you wherever

0:05:55.453 --> 0:05:58.013
<v Speaker 1>you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio.