1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,080 Speaker 1: So where does the war go after the White House 2 00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:04,200 Speaker 1: melt down? We have an emergency summit in London. I 3 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 1: but not of course, Zelensky has met Starma, also met 4 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: the King, got plenty of encouraging words of support, but 5 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: words don't win wars. And that's where the Americans fit. 6 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: And from the CENA FOL Strategic and International Studies Senior 7 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: Advisor Mark Kensian's with us. Mike, very good morning to you. 8 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on the show. 9 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: Not at all. Did you see it unfold live in 10 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: the White House on Saturday? 11 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 2: I did. It was incredible and. 12 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: Appalling from whose point of view? 13 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 2: Well, I think from most observers. This was a very 14 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: uncomfortable exchange. Zelensky was trying to explain himself. He was 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: cut off. You know, these kinds of exchanges I think 16 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: are not uncommon in diplomacy, but they're done behind closed doores, 17 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: not in front of the press. 18 00:00:57,960 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: That is true. Do you have a view as to 19 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: whether JD. Dance was there as an attack dog to 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: set that off or not? 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: One certainly gets that ceiling. Of course, there's been a 22 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 2: lot of speculation about whether that was true. He did 23 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 2: seem ready to be harshly critical and jumped very quickly 24 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 2: on Zelensky. So my personal suspicion as he came in 25 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 2: ready to be hostile, but hard to say for sure. 26 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 1: Mark Route, who said out of the weekend, as Zelensky's 27 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 1: got to repair the damage with Trump, do you see 28 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 1: a way back to get America back at the table 29 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 1: in some way, shape or form or not. 30 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 2: That's very hard to say. This meeting was very disappointing, 31 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 2: and the administration has been very skeptical about a to Ukraine. 32 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 2: They become increasingly hostile to Ukraine, saying you a variety 33 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 2: of unfavorable things, and of course saying favorable things about 34 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 2: Russia and put Uh. I think there's going to be 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: a lot of effort to repair the relationship. I think 36 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: you'll see the Europeans and others weighing in. I think 37 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: that Zelensky will uh uh eat a little crow to 38 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 2: use an American expression, I mean he will apologize and uh, 39 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: you know, try to offer some you know, some you know, 40 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 2: something to make the Americans or make the White House 41 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 2: feel better. Maybe sign this trade agreement, uh, this mining agreement. 42 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll see something, uh to try to repair 43 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 2: the relationship. In an extreme situation. You know, maybe Zelensky 44 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 2: would would stand down. I don't see that happening, but 45 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 2: they were clearly pushing for that. 46 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: The logic seems to be as regards the minerals, once 47 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: we sign up, the Americans are on the ground in 48 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: Uyb looking after their interests. That's the security guarantee of sorts. 49 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: Is that the way you see it or not? 50 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,959 Speaker 2: Well, it's a partial security guarantee. It does bring the 51 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: two countries more close together, It puts American capital at risk, 52 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: It brings Americans into Ukraine as part of these exchanges. 53 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 2: But it's not in itself enough. It would have to 54 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: be complemented by some sort of weapons deals to rearm 55 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 2: the Ukrainians, perhaps for some peacekeeping force or something like that. 56 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 2: But it is a peace and Zelenski's desires for NATAL 57 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 2: membership I think are just not going to happen. The 58 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 2: United States would oppose it. I think many of the 59 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: Europeans are uncomfortable with it. Also. 60 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: Also, then you get Russia itself, and I just had 61 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: a meeting with Putin. The Americans had a meeting with Putin. 62 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: And the suggestion is there's not a single thing that 63 00:03:57,880 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 1: that Russia is prepared to back down on in any 64 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: way shape of form. Is that ultimately a sticking. 65 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: Point, Well, it certainly could be. A lot depends on 66 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 2: the negotiators negotiations themselves. I think that they'll, you know, 67 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 2: they're going to push for some sort of cease fire 68 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 2: along the current front lines. One of the negotiators Trump 69 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 2: negotiators put out an article while ago suggesting that, I mean, 70 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 2: the Russians would have to back off their desire to 71 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: take over the whole country to neutralize it. You know, 72 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 2: right now, there's not a whole lot of overlap between 73 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: the two sides. But on the other hand, they're also 74 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 2: very exhausted, and Trump will be pushing both of them 75 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: very hard. 76 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 1: Exactly. Make appreciate your expertise very much, Mike Kenton, who's 77 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: the senior advisor at the Center PA Strategic International Studies 78 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. For more from The Mic Housking Breakfast, 79 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: listen live to News Talks at b from six am weekdays, 80 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 1: or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.