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Speaker 1: Now, the Real Estate Institute reckons there are green shoots

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Speaker 1: in the housing market. Although prices in July were down

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Speaker 1: two point two percent from a year ago, the number

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Speaker 1: of properties sold actually jumped almost fifteen percent in the year.

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Speaker 1: Brad Olsen is Infometrics principal economist.

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Speaker 2: Day Brad good evening.

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Speaker 1: Did you hear the sledging from Adrian or towards you

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Speaker 1: last week?

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Speaker 2: Oh, I've heard various views being put out across what

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Speaker 2: the bank may or may not have done with cutting,

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Speaker 2: whether or not it was U turns or not. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: I just stand by my point hither that there that

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Speaker 2: was a big swing in view to go from saying

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Speaker 2: that things will interest rates might go up and certainly

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Speaker 2: going to stay and hold another year to then three

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Speaker 2: months later decide to go for a cut. Now, if

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Speaker 2: the economy had changed, marketly, I could understand that. But

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Speaker 2: most of the high frequency data that we've been setting

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Speaker 2: has continued to look bad through twenty twenty four. It

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Speaker 2: didn't emerge just three months ago.

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Speaker 1: What about him saying that he thinks that you need

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Speaker 1: pictures to be drawn? Did it make you be angry

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Speaker 1: or did you go, oh, that's just classic Adrian.

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Speaker 2: Oh, look, that's not for me to comment. I have

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Speaker 2: tried my heart not to make it personally genuinely, you

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Speaker 2: don't think I have. If others want to try and

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Speaker 2: make it that way, that's completely on them. But put

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Speaker 2: it this way, I'm more than comfortable with calling a

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Speaker 2: spade a spade. If it has been going around forty

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Speaker 2: years this year, you know, making sure that we're providing

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Speaker 2: an independent, robust economic view and we won't be changing that.

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Speaker 1: Now, what do you reckon is going to happen from

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Speaker 1: here on in? Is it going to be cut cut, cut, cut,

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Speaker 1: cut at every single meeting.

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Speaker 2: That's what we're taking from the predictions at the moment.

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Speaker 2: If the economic data comes in as expected, we'd be

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Speaker 2: expecting cuts every meeting until probably mid next year, and

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Speaker 2: then the bank weft is probably take it a little

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Speaker 2: bit more of a do they don't they? After that? Look,

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Speaker 2: it's not out of the rental of possibility either here

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Speaker 2: that the bank sides at the end of this year,

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Speaker 2: come November, they might have to do a fifty pass

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Speaker 2: point cut. They'll have three months, remember before they meet

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Speaker 2: again in twenty twenty five, so they might want to

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Speaker 2: sneak in an extra cut almost ahead of time.

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Speaker 1: Yep, yep, yep. I think you might be on the

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Speaker 1: money on that one. Listen, now, why is the housing

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Speaker 1: market up at the moment? Is this and this is

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Speaker 1: pre the cut? Is this because people start to see

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Speaker 1: good signs?

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Speaker 2: I think there's a few parts. So, I mean, one,

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Speaker 2: June was just sort of quite rubbish in terms of

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Speaker 2: you you've seen sales jump up significantly in July in

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Speaker 2: the housing market. Part of that was just because there

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Speaker 2: wasn't a whole lot happening in June. Sales. If you

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Speaker 2: look at them sort of over the last year or so,

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Speaker 2: it's still pretty weak on all accounts. You can see

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Speaker 2: that in house price growth as well, only zero point

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Speaker 2: two percent over the last year, the slowest annual growth

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Speaker 2: since November twenty twenty three. So it's not like there's

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Speaker 2: a huge amount out there. You might be seeing some

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Speaker 2: green shoots starting to be sullen, but let's be clear

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Speaker 2: that the ground is still pretty frozen underneath, and we're

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Speaker 2: not expecting it thaws out immediately.

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Speaker 1: Brad, you mentioned it's forty years. It's forty years of

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Speaker 1: infametrics today, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: We are celebrating today. I mean, the business has been

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Speaker 2: going a long time, starting in nineteen eighty four as

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Speaker 2: the economy was really starting to go through some big

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Speaker 2: economic ructions. We've sort of been there through it all

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Speaker 2: and we're pretty excited to say that, you know, we've

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Speaker 2: made the smilestone and we're looking forward to a lot more.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, good stuff. As you've got a party in Earliament tonight.

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Speaker 1: So you've got the Finance Minister coming, Gareth Morgan coming.

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Speaker 2: Yes, indeed we've got Gareth coming along. We've got our

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Speaker 2: team and a bunch of clients and supporters and similar

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Speaker 2: not wanting it to be too big. We're economists after all,

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Speaker 2: and so we've got to be you know, conservative. We

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Speaker 2: don't want to try and reinflate you know, the inflationary

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Speaker 2: pressures again, so.

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Speaker 1: Keeping it sort of reserve Adrian coming.

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Speaker 2: We have not got the Reserve Bank Governor in attendance.

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Speaker 2: We have invited the chief economists, but unfortunately they're not

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Speaker 2: able to make.

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Speaker 1: It other commitments like washing their hair tonight. Brad, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much, really appreciate it. Brad alson infametrics principle

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Speaker 1: economists For more from Heather Duplassy Allen Drive, Listen live

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