1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,600 Speaker 1: New Zealand businesses are waiting with bated breath to see 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: who's going to become the president in the US, and 3 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:06,560 Speaker 1: obviously it looks like Donald Trump is going to take it. 4 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: Tim Grosser is a former trade minister and former ambassador 5 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: to the US and with US now. Tim, thanks for 6 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: being with us. 7 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 2: I really appreciate it. Pleasure. 8 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: Do you see this coming? 9 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 2: Well? I saw the data and studied the data very 10 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 2: very carefully, and in particular the ninety three electoral College 11 00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 2: votes in the seven swing states, all of which had 12 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: up until about a week ago, Trump marginally leading, and 13 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 2: for sophisticated reasons that political scientists much better in form 14 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 2: than me could tell you a consistent tendency to underestimate Trump. 15 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 2: I thought it was more likely he would win. But 16 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 2: I didn't say it's going to be a Trump walkover. 17 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 2: But I thought the numbers implied what appears to be 18 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: playing out on the screen. The other broader point I've 19 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: been making is, you know, you can you can do 20 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 2: a granular dive into data in elections, or you can 21 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: look at the bigger picture. And to me, the issue 22 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 2: is if you are the incumbent and the underlying mood 23 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 2: of the New Zealand electorate or the British electorate or 24 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 2: the American electorate. Is this is no time to change horses. 25 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 2: You're in good check. If it's throw the bums out, 26 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 2: you're in trouble no matter who you are. And I 27 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 2: have used this analogy, real world analogy before. I asked 28 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 2: my father when I was eighteen years old and he 29 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 2: was old enough to vote. He was born in London, 30 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:30,839 Speaker 2: old enough to vote for the first time in nineteen 31 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 2: forty five, and Winston Churchill was standing on his record. 32 00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: You cannot get a better record for an incumbent than 33 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 2: having saved Western civilization. I'm sorry, so I said, Dad, 34 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 2: did you vote for Winston? And he said, ah, no, 35 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: We were appreciative of what Winston had done, but we 36 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 2: wanted change. So my argument has been to a few people, 37 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 2: if Winston Bloody Churchill cannot withstand the mood will change. 38 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 2: No politician can. I mean, I think there'll be some 39 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 2: really interesting and bitter stuff happens within the Democratic Party 40 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 2: as this unfolds if he wins. But the cardinal mistake 41 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: they made was to screw up the selection process and 42 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 2: put in a candidate that was never going to succeed 43 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: in presenting herself as a candidate to change. 44 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: You think they should have had I had an open contest, 45 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: not just to. 46 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean, look, we'll wait and see how 47 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,239 Speaker 2: this pans out in terms of the internal debate in 48 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 2: the Democratic Party. But the original mistake probably is about 49 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 2: two years ago. Because I agree that Gavin Newsom, the 50 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: governor of California, and the person that I think has 51 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 2: got amazing political talent in the United States, who is 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 2: Gretchen Whitmore, the governor of Michigan. I mean, either of 53 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: those would have been able to present it as a 54 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 2: brilliant candidate, a candidate of change without dumping all over 55 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 2: the Biden administration. They never had a chance. After the 56 00:02:56,840 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 2: debut of the Trump Biden debate. 57 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: Back with Tim Gross, a former trade minister, former ambassadors 58 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: to the US. Tim, So, let's assume that Donald Trump 59 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 1: becomes the president. Most likely outcome at the moment he 60 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 1: has the Senate, he also has the House. He can 61 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 1: do everything he wants. Does he go ahead with the 62 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: tariffs quickly? 63 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 2: Well, he'll certainly try. There are massive problems which he, 64 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,239 Speaker 2: of course is completely unaware of. I mean, I simply 65 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: don't believe for one minute he can implement the full 66 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 2: force of what he's proposing, which will be utter madness 67 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,679 Speaker 2: and do enormous damage to the American people if he 68 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: tried to do it. Don't forget this. Fifty percent of 69 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 2: the imports coming into the United States are what are 70 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 2: called intermediate goods, meaning it ain't sort of sausages and 71 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 2: cell phones. It's the things that go into make sausages 72 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 2: like New Zealand meat, and the things that go in 73 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: to make handphones. And you increase the price of those, 74 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: what the hell do the companies who are buying these 75 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: so called intermediate goods do. They'll pass the costs on, 76 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 2: of course they will, And the idea that suddenly there's 77 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: going to be American comfant copanies will say, oh, we 78 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: can produce all the bits that go into the handphone. 79 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: Do you really think commercially they're going to take that 80 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 2: risk when they know the retaliation coming down? So this 81 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 2: is this is not going to work. But as he 82 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 2: follows this absurd policy, you can break a lot of 83 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 2: stuff in the process. 84 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,359 Speaker 1: Do you think, though, that he's open to having to 85 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:20,479 Speaker 1: being changed on it? 86 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 2: Does he trying? Yes, yes, he is open and this 87 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 2: is I mean, the classic example of this is you've 88 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 2: got this gigantic FTA called the NAFTA that unites the Mexican, Canadian, 89 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 2: and US economies, and over twenty years, supply chains have 90 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 2: grown up of great complexity. Trump becomes the President's with 91 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 2: the same protectionist mindset, says this agreement is the worst 92 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 2: agreement that mankind has ever seen on the planet. I'm 93 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,599 Speaker 2: going to smash it. Then he gets kunter pressure from 94 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 2: Justin Trudeau and from the Mexicans. Then he's forced to backtrack. 95 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 2: A renegotiation takes place, which is now quote, the greatest 96 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,280 Speaker 2: trade agreement that has ever been negotiated, eighty five percent 97 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: of which is identical to the old one. So in 98 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 2: that sense, yes, you are right. He will face a 99 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: lot of pushback, not just externally but internally to this. 100 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 2: So I think the net how I net this out? 101 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 2: It's all bad. It's not going to be literally the 102 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: full Monty that he's put on the table. But there's 103 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 2: no good can come out of this. It's just a 104 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:30,799 Speaker 2: question of how bad is it going to be on there. 105 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: But look, that's not my overarching concern right now. My 106 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 2: overarching concern is much bigger than trade and economics, which 107 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 2: is what it's the international security situation, because so. 108 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: He delays bad things happen. 109 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 2: But first of all, we've got a massive immediate problem 110 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: on our hands if he's the president, because everyone knows 111 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 2: that's where the US is going under a Trump administration. 112 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 2: And we've got two months of the lame duck period 113 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 2: where technically the gravely we can biden Harris presidency is 114 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 2: still in charge of the United States. Meanwhile, we've got 115 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 2: a war in Europe and a war in the Middle East, 116 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 2: which are the most serious wars that we've seen threatening 117 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 2: global peace and stability in seventy years in my personal opinion. So, 118 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 2: and the other thing is this, Heather, that both of 119 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 2: the key to decision makers Putin and Nitnya, who are 120 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: watching Trump above or else for their decision, do I 121 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 2: escalate or do I negotiately? 122 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: Not Tim, thank you will have to leave it there. 123 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: I could talk forever with you, Tim Grosser. Headline's next. 124 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to 125 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: news Talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow 126 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 1: the podcast on iHeartRadio.