WEBVTT - Leighton Smith Podcast #263 - November 6th 2024 - Professor Nigel Biggar and Patrick Basham 0:00:09.133 --> 0:00:12.693 You're listening to a podcast from news talks ITB. Follow 0:00:12.773 --> 0:00:16.213 this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio. 0:00:17.053 --> 0:00:18.333 It's time for all the. 0:00:18.373 --> 0:00:22.133 Attitude, all the opinion, all the information, all the debates 0:00:22.253 --> 0:00:27.093 of us now the lighton Smith podcast cow it by 0:00:27.173 --> 0:00:27.973 news talks ITB. 0:00:28.573 --> 0:00:31.813 Welcome to podcasts two hundred and sixty three for November six, 0:00:32.053 --> 0:00:36.173 twenty twenty four. And it is November five in the 0:00:36.333 --> 0:00:39.973 United States of America, and today is election day. That 0:00:40.093 --> 0:00:43.173 has promised some insight and coverage from early in the 0:00:43.253 --> 0:00:48.813 count and Patrick Basham from Democracy Institute releases exit poll 0:00:48.933 --> 0:00:52.813 numbers that of course will be replaced with some real 0:00:52.973 --> 0:00:56.453 life numbers in the very near future, if not already. 0:00:56.773 --> 0:01:00.573 But watching Upholster at work and seeing how accurate he 0:01:00.733 --> 0:01:04.093 and his team are is just part of the interesting 0:01:04.133 --> 0:01:08.213 game now. Whatever the outcome of Patrick delivers his usual 0:01:08.373 --> 0:01:13.693 quality commentary. Over the last few weeks, even last few days, 0:01:14.213 --> 0:01:18.173 I've realized something of importance. The FSU, the Free Speech Union, 0:01:18.333 --> 0:01:22.933 has not been overstating its case, not been for a period. 0:01:22.973 --> 0:01:25.773 I was wondering if they were in a state of overkill. 0:01:26.253 --> 0:01:28.933 It seemed that there were any number of international commentators 0:01:28.973 --> 0:01:32.733 visiting New Zealand with some more coming. But after interviewing 0:01:32.773 --> 0:01:37.413 the latest and present guest, I've realized that the FSU 0:01:37.693 --> 0:01:40.693 is on track. The discussion with Nigel big Ar and 0:01:40.773 --> 0:01:42.853 reading a lot of his work nailed it for me. 0:01:43.413 --> 0:01:47.053 Professor Bigger wrote the Higher Education Freedom of Speech Bill 0:01:47.133 --> 0:01:52.173 twenty twenty one for Britain. But his work doesn't stop there. Well, 0:01:52.213 --> 0:01:55.813 actually did, but there's a story behind. It's interesting and 0:01:56.053 --> 0:02:00.013 I believe that you will greatly appreciate his analysis. But 0:02:00.093 --> 0:02:12.133 in just a moment, Patrick Basham now from the Democracy Institute, 0:02:12.173 --> 0:02:15.293 Patrick Basham. Patrick actually has been very busy, how can 0:02:15.333 --> 0:02:17.493 I say it. He's been working his butt off. After 0:02:17.493 --> 0:02:21.373 spending a few days in Doha at an investment conference, 0:02:21.853 --> 0:02:23.653 he raced back to Washington. I spoke to him from 0:02:23.693 --> 0:02:26.533 the airport. Actually he raced back to Washington to cover 0:02:26.613 --> 0:02:32.853 the election. And we had the Institute's final polling numbers 0:02:33.693 --> 0:02:36.573 twenty four hours ago, will say, and now as a 0:02:36.613 --> 0:02:40.253 result of Patrick's association with the Daily Express in the US, 0:02:40.933 --> 0:02:44.253 we have some exit poll figures. It is great to 0:02:44.253 --> 0:02:46.173 have you back on the podcast, and this is something 0:02:46.173 --> 0:02:49.573 that we've never done before and it's made difficult Patrick, 0:02:49.613 --> 0:02:52.213 as you well know by the fact that the timing 0:02:52.373 --> 0:02:56.173 of this election as opposed to this podcast, and it's 0:02:56.253 --> 0:03:01.293 their fault, not mine, that we are up against the clock, 0:03:01.413 --> 0:03:04.613 so to speak. But that doesn't mean that a lot 0:03:04.653 --> 0:03:06.973 of people are very interested in what you have to say. 0:03:07.453 --> 0:03:09.133 I was very kind of you, kind of to have 0:03:09.253 --> 0:03:12.333 me back on the program again. Or it's good to 0:03:12.333 --> 0:03:14.213 talk to you. It's such an exciting time. I mean 0:03:15.053 --> 0:03:17.533 when you say about timings, I can really appreciate it 0:03:17.573 --> 0:03:20.493 because I've been had such a whirlwind trip to Middle 0:03:20.533 --> 0:03:25.973 East and came back so sleep deprived that all of 0:03:25.973 --> 0:03:28.613 the time zones across America are challenging me with the 0:03:28.973 --> 0:03:33.453 with the polling, let alone the top there the more 0:03:33.573 --> 0:03:36.293 transcontinental one you're dealing with, But there's already lots to 0:03:36.373 --> 0:03:38.453 chew on, I think, so I think it should be 0:03:38.893 --> 0:03:39.933 an interesting conversation. 0:03:39.973 --> 0:03:42.413 All right, let's let's have a look at the exit 0:03:42.493 --> 0:03:46.413 figures that you came up with, because they are interesting. 0:03:47.133 --> 0:03:50.533 You didn't do any state by state, Am I right 0:03:50.653 --> 0:03:50.973 or wrong? 0:03:51.453 --> 0:03:55.093 Correct? The reason for that is, I mean, partly, you know, 0:03:55.453 --> 0:04:00.853 cost timing logistics, but also we just done a whole 0:04:00.933 --> 0:04:05.413 series of swing state polls and we thought that now 0:04:05.493 --> 0:04:07.853 we and the newspaper thought the national polls should be 0:04:09.253 --> 0:04:11.613 truly that and that we could pick and you know, 0:04:11.653 --> 0:04:13.693 we could instead of doing a national poll, we could 0:04:13.733 --> 0:04:16.573 pick one or two exit swing states do exit poles, 0:04:16.773 --> 0:04:18.693 and they might prove to be the pivotal ones. But 0:04:19.653 --> 0:04:21.973 you know, it's a guess. It's a guestimate, and we 0:04:22.013 --> 0:04:23.933 thought that we would be able to hoped we would 0:04:23.933 --> 0:04:25.733 be able to pick up in a national exit pole 0:04:26.653 --> 0:04:29.213 whatever what was that was changing or whatever it was 0:04:29.293 --> 0:04:32.733 most meaningful. So that's that's the sort of risk we took. 0:04:33.053 --> 0:04:35.853 Well, I think you've done the greatest number of people 0:04:36.013 --> 0:04:37.973 that you've done so far, am I right? 0:04:38.893 --> 0:04:41.533 That is right, Yes, we've done well. It was twenty 0:04:41.653 --> 0:04:44.693 two hundred and fifty I think it was the was 0:04:44.733 --> 0:04:48.933 the final tally. So that's quite a bit more than 0:04:48.933 --> 0:04:51.493 we normally do and more than we would have done 0:04:51.533 --> 0:04:54.453 if we'd done individual states. So it's you know, we're 0:04:55.173 --> 0:04:59.933 pretty confident that we got our arms around those who 0:04:59.933 --> 0:05:02.973 had already voted, I mean the vote. The voting is 0:05:02.973 --> 0:05:05.733 still going on in most places, so you know, because 0:05:06.253 --> 0:05:09.093 you have to get these things done and in a 0:05:09.093 --> 0:05:12.213 little early we hope it's not premature in terms of results, 0:05:12.253 --> 0:05:14.933 but you know, you just try to you just try 0:05:14.973 --> 0:05:18.493 to nail down what you can and and cover your 0:05:18.653 --> 0:05:20.773 basis and would say your butt as well as you can. 0:05:20.853 --> 0:05:23.213 But you know, I mean, as a long standing critic 0:05:23.253 --> 0:05:25.933 of exit polls, I'd be the first one to say 0:05:25.973 --> 0:05:28.133 that these are as much art as science. 0:05:28.613 --> 0:05:30.173 Are you started with the voting method? 0:05:30.533 --> 0:05:33.173 Yeah, that's that's the interesting thing about this year's exit 0:05:33.213 --> 0:05:37.533 pole because traditionally is I'm sure your audience is aware, 0:05:38.173 --> 0:05:40.573 exit polls are usually what we used to call man 0:05:40.613 --> 0:05:42.773 on the street or person in the street, person coming 0:05:42.773 --> 0:05:46.773 out of the polling station, interviews and lots of young 0:05:46.773 --> 0:05:50.013 people would be hired at certain locations around the country, 0:05:50.053 --> 0:05:53.453 whether it was you know, UK, Canada, US, you name it, 0:05:53.773 --> 0:05:55.733 and then there asked a series of questions and those 0:05:55.733 --> 0:05:58.213 are fed back. One of the problems with that, of course, 0:05:58.293 --> 0:06:00.493 is it's it's you have to you know, it's you 0:06:00.573 --> 0:06:03.773 have to which locations do you choose? But the biggest problem, 0:06:03.893 --> 0:06:07.213 what we thought the challenge was was the fact that 0:06:07.853 --> 0:06:10.933 at the time time when we arranged this with the newspaper, 0:06:11.013 --> 0:06:13.173 we were looking at about thirty five forty percent of 0:06:13.253 --> 0:06:16.333 people had already voted for exit poles. Correct, it's now 0:06:16.533 --> 0:06:19.973 more than half before election day, So that means even 0:06:20.013 --> 0:06:23.253 if you do a fantastic job of an exit poll 0:06:23.293 --> 0:06:26.293 on election day, you're going to miss half the voters. 0:06:26.853 --> 0:06:28.973 So we thought it made you know, that's really the 0:06:29.013 --> 0:06:34.013 main reason we did what we did. And so when 0:06:34.053 --> 0:06:38.333 we started it, especially early today with the calling, it 0:06:38.453 --> 0:06:43.253 was we were pleasantly surprised that the comparative willingness of 0:06:43.293 --> 0:06:45.973 people to want the ability of people to speak because 0:06:46.133 --> 0:06:50.213 disproportionate number of people had already voted, and so we 0:06:50.253 --> 0:06:54.053 could start getting some serious data and numbers in results 0:06:54.053 --> 0:06:57.333 in you know, well before you would have traditionally expected. 0:06:57.653 --> 0:06:59.373 Are you the only one doing it this way? Do 0:06:59.413 --> 0:07:03.533 you think? Or are some of the other big boys 0:07:04.653 --> 0:07:10.293 following the same routine of calling than standing outside booze? 0:07:11.533 --> 0:07:15.413 I'm I hesitate to say, I know this definitively. I 0:07:15.493 --> 0:07:18.333 think we are. I think we are the only one 0:07:18.373 --> 0:07:24.373 exclusively using our regular polling method. Could be proven wrong, 0:07:24.413 --> 0:07:26.533 but I don't think so. I think they are mostly 0:07:26.573 --> 0:07:30.093 traditional or some sort of hybrid's that's that's my sense. 0:07:30.453 --> 0:07:34.253 Okay, So you divided that up into voting by mail, 0:07:34.453 --> 0:07:37.213 early in person and election day and the figures of 0:07:37.253 --> 0:07:44.213 twenty eight, thirty one and forty one. So let's get 0:07:44.053 --> 0:07:48.933 into the really nitty gritty the president The presidential vote 0:07:49.093 --> 0:07:52.053 is the simplest of all. I think you take it. 0:07:53.213 --> 0:07:58.093 Sure. Our exit poll finds Trump ahead by four points, 0:07:58.133 --> 0:08:01.573 fifty one to forty seven. And the point of reference 0:08:01.653 --> 0:08:03.573 here when you do an exit pole, you know don't 0:08:03.573 --> 0:08:05.693 know I mean we as you know, we finished up 0:08:06.013 --> 0:08:09.333 our final poll national poll late last week, and you 0:08:09.373 --> 0:08:11.213 don't know whether the exit pole is going to be 0:08:11.213 --> 0:08:14.653 way different in one direction or going to be most identical. 0:08:14.893 --> 0:08:16.533 This one turns out, at least in terms of the 0:08:17.133 --> 0:08:19.293 popular vote, to be very close, because our last poll 0:08:19.373 --> 0:08:21.293 is fifty to forty seven in Trump's favor. This is 0:08:21.333 --> 0:08:23.813 fifty one to forty seven. So that part of it 0:08:23.853 --> 0:08:27.973 tells us, well, I guess you might say, tells us 0:08:28.013 --> 0:08:30.413 we're going to be doubly right or doubly wrong. But 0:08:30.773 --> 0:08:35.613 it gives us some sense of security that we weren't 0:08:36.733 --> 0:08:40.693 way off. At least our methods are consistent. And of course, 0:08:41.133 --> 0:08:43.373 as exit polls. One of the problems with the exit 0:08:43.373 --> 0:08:47.253 polls the outcome of the outcomes in North America anyways, 0:08:47.293 --> 0:08:52.093 they tend nearly always to be biased towards the liberal 0:08:52.173 --> 0:08:57.213 or left wing party or candidate, and whether the results 0:08:57.253 --> 0:08:59.093 turn out to be accurate or not, and often they're not. 0:08:59.693 --> 0:09:03.893 And so we didn't know whether that might be more 0:09:05.493 --> 0:09:09.533 an outcome of the sort of method or whether it's 0:09:09.653 --> 0:09:15.533 just another the bias found elsewhere. But finding that Trump 0:09:15.653 --> 0:09:18.093 is in as good a position with those who've already 0:09:18.133 --> 0:09:23.813 voted as those were prospective voters is obviously tells a lot. 0:09:23.853 --> 0:09:27.133 And what I think it does at this early juncture 0:09:27.173 --> 0:09:29.733 when we don't means we're as we're speaking, there's just 0:09:29.773 --> 0:09:35.173 the very first little results trickling in. It tells us 0:09:35.253 --> 0:09:38.453 that what has been apparently happening on the ground, what 0:09:38.493 --> 0:09:41.973 has been measured on the ground today in America, across America, 0:09:42.413 --> 0:09:44.853 with those you know, those who are the forty one 0:09:44.853 --> 0:09:49.013 percent who were voting in person, that the comparatively strong 0:09:49.053 --> 0:09:53.693 Republican turn out, the comparatively lower Democratic turnout might actually 0:09:54.453 --> 0:09:56.973 be the case, you know, might be the case through 0:09:56.973 --> 0:09:57.453 that through the. 0:09:57.493 --> 0:09:58.253 Day, in the evening. 0:09:59.173 --> 0:10:04.093 So this is good news for the Trump side, But 0:10:04.533 --> 0:10:05.933 I'm not sure, I mean, I don't know yet what 0:10:06.013 --> 0:10:07.773 the other exit polls may or may not be showing 0:10:07.813 --> 0:10:10.853 because to release they head to head until the polls 0:10:10.853 --> 0:10:11.293 are closed. 0:10:11.533 --> 0:10:15.093 Right now, you've for demographics, you've done the list of 0:10:15.173 --> 0:10:20.533 for nineteen and it's a very interesting result. I think, 0:10:20.813 --> 0:10:28.613 let me run through it. Men, women, white, Black, Hispanic, Asian, GOP, Democrats, Independent, Catholic, 0:10:29.733 --> 0:10:31.893 and then age groups eighteen to twenty nine, thirty to 0:10:31.933 --> 0:10:35.813 thirty four, forty five to sixty four, sixty five plus urban, suburban, 0:10:35.893 --> 0:10:41.013 small town, rural, middle class and blue collar. That must 0:10:41.013 --> 0:10:44.173 have been the most difficult part of part of doing it, 0:10:44.213 --> 0:10:48.213 I would think. But what stood out to you? 0:10:48.653 --> 0:10:52.293 Yeah, a couple of things stand out, and then most 0:10:52.333 --> 0:10:54.333 of the things that have actually stood out all year 0:10:54.333 --> 0:10:56.813 because you're aware of no late and then some of 0:10:56.813 --> 0:11:00.573 your audience. Maybe our numbers haven't changed that much over 0:11:00.613 --> 0:11:02.453 the course of the year. So the things that stand out, 0:11:02.533 --> 0:11:06.573 especially if you're looking at this a new are the 0:11:06.693 --> 0:11:11.373 minority votes. That's arguably the most telling, the fact that 0:11:11.813 --> 0:11:15.013 according to our exit Paul, you know, Trump's getting more 0:11:15.053 --> 0:11:20.573 than one in five black vote and he's getting almost 0:11:20.573 --> 0:11:25.733 one in two Hispanic votes. And that you know, when 0:11:25.733 --> 0:11:27.853 you when you drill down a bit, what that means 0:11:27.853 --> 0:11:32.413 you've got more Hispanic men than women choosing Trump rather 0:11:32.413 --> 0:11:36.093 than the traditional Democrat vote. However, it's not there's not 0:11:36.173 --> 0:11:38.973 a lot in it. You know, Trump is quite popular 0:11:38.973 --> 0:11:43.493 with Hispanic women, whereas on the black side, you're looking 0:11:43.493 --> 0:11:46.253 at over thirty percent thirty thirty five percent of Black 0:11:46.293 --> 0:11:50.933 men voting for Trump. But the last holdout for the Democrats, 0:11:50.973 --> 0:11:57.293 particularly with Kamala Harris as the candidate, are black women's. Basically, 0:11:57.293 --> 0:11:59.773 I'm talking about middle aged and old, older black women. 0:12:00.493 --> 0:12:02.933 And so you you put that high that high compared 0:12:02.973 --> 0:12:04.773 to be high figure among men that can party of 0:12:04.853 --> 0:12:07.053 low figure among black women together, and you end up 0:12:07.053 --> 0:12:08.813 with sort of a little over one in five. So 0:12:08.853 --> 0:12:13.413 those two numbers alone, you know, if you ask me, okay, 0:12:13.453 --> 0:12:16.413 you know, pick pick one or two of these demographic subgroups, 0:12:16.893 --> 0:12:20.933 and you know, and make your your wager on who wins, 0:12:21.533 --> 0:12:24.933 those are the ones I'd pick because it's just historically 0:12:24.973 --> 0:12:29.733 and arithmetically, it's just really hard borrowing on impossible for 0:12:29.813 --> 0:12:34.973 the Democrats to win a contemporary American national election with 0:12:35.453 --> 0:12:38.933 only in inverted commerce, seventy eight percent of the Black 0:12:39.013 --> 0:12:42.013 vote or half of the Hispanic vote. They just can't 0:12:42.053 --> 0:12:45.333 make it up with white voters. There are only so 0:12:45.453 --> 0:12:50.093 many white liberal women to go around. You know, whether 0:12:50.093 --> 0:12:52.453 some people might view that editorially is a good thing, 0:12:52.493 --> 0:12:56.413 but in terms of the arithmetic, lectural arithmetic, for the Democrats, 0:12:56.773 --> 0:13:00.493 it's unfortunate. And that's why they count on, you know, 0:13:00.613 --> 0:13:08.093 such your uniform almost you know, universal within those electorates 0:13:08.413 --> 0:13:10.053 court and so we don't when you don't get that. 0:13:10.213 --> 0:13:13.813 The other two that jump out at me, they often 0:13:13.853 --> 0:13:16.653 mirror each other, although they aren't. They aren't the same 0:13:16.693 --> 0:13:21.133 people's This overlap is the independence who are we The 0:13:21.173 --> 0:13:25.253 exit poll has Trump up eight points. Independents don't always 0:13:26.973 --> 0:13:30.893 reflect the winner, but they usually do. And the other 0:13:30.933 --> 0:13:33.453 one is the Catholic vote. And the reason we've highlighted 0:13:33.533 --> 0:13:36.933 that is the evangelical vote is very important. It's overwhelmingly 0:13:36.973 --> 0:13:40.373 for Trump. You have atheists is much smaller, overwhelmingly for Harris. 0:13:40.733 --> 0:13:46.453 And then your sort of traditional Protestant, various Protestant denominations 0:13:46.933 --> 0:13:51.293 that tend to skew Republican. But Catholics are a swing 0:13:51.653 --> 0:13:54.973 are these swing maybe the only swing religious group block 0:13:55.013 --> 0:13:58.373 in America? They tend to go with the winner. Doesn't 0:13:58.413 --> 0:14:00.773 tend to be a big difference between the two sides, 0:14:00.813 --> 0:14:03.213 and it's very much like the independent vote. We've got 0:14:03.253 --> 0:14:07.893 an eight point lead for Trump, and that also again, 0:14:07.933 --> 0:14:09.853 you know, if you're looking at this in terms of 0:14:09.853 --> 0:14:11.853 what a history tells us, it tells us that the 0:14:12.013 --> 0:14:16.533 Independents and Catholics are going for going for one candidate, 0:14:16.893 --> 0:14:20.533 and the other candidates lost a good chunk of their 0:14:20.573 --> 0:14:23.053 minority vote which they had count on. You know, that 0:14:23.173 --> 0:14:25.373 suggests the wind is blowing in this particular direction. 0:14:27.173 --> 0:14:30.973 There are two columns that I'm interested in at this point. 0:14:31.693 --> 0:14:35.773 One is for the Democrats. The other is for the Republicans, 0:14:35.973 --> 0:14:39.973 the GOP. And the reason that I that I'm interested 0:14:40.173 --> 0:14:44.813 is because I missed it in the Republican column because 0:14:44.813 --> 0:14:49.213 it's right at the bottom. But overall, let me just 0:14:49.253 --> 0:14:53.373 explain something. This is this is a this is a 0:14:53.493 --> 0:14:55.493 row of shop what do you what would you call 0:14:55.533 --> 0:15:00.733 them polls or what? A row of vertical. 0:15:01.333 --> 0:15:06.053 Yes, they're they're stacked columns. 0:15:05.533 --> 0:15:11.013 Right, That's what I wanted. Ah, And then you've got 0:15:11.533 --> 0:15:14.933 you've got Harris at the bottom and Trump at the top. 0:15:15.013 --> 0:15:19.573 So it's blue and red and the in the GOP column, 0:15:19.813 --> 0:15:24.573 the Democrat sorry, the Republican column you've got ninety six 0:15:24.613 --> 0:15:29.173 percent for Trump voted for Trump, four percent of Republicans 0:15:29.253 --> 0:15:34.013 voted for Harris. And then on the other side, you've 0:15:34.053 --> 0:15:38.853 got ninety four percent voting for Harris and six percent 0:15:39.933 --> 0:15:43.653 voting for Trump. Now that means it's very close, but 0:15:43.933 --> 0:15:45.053 Trump came out top in that. 0:15:46.333 --> 0:15:49.093 That's right, And let's you know, be consistent whether it 0:15:49.133 --> 0:15:52.733 was Biden or Harris's Democratic candidate. For a year or two, 0:15:52.853 --> 0:15:57.213 Trump has been holding on to almost everyone who considers 0:15:57.253 --> 0:16:00.733 himself a Republican and almost everyone who voted for him 0:16:01.013 --> 0:16:05.133 last time. On the Democratic side, it hasn't been disastrous, 0:16:05.573 --> 0:16:08.933 but there's been a little bit of blea kitch compared 0:16:08.973 --> 0:16:12.693 to Trump's voters a few, you know, it's been sort 0:16:12.693 --> 0:16:14.813 of high single digits who voted for him last time 0:16:14.933 --> 0:16:17.773 was saying they wouldn't versus low single digits on the 0:16:17.773 --> 0:16:21.493 Trump side. And you know, in a close race, that 0:16:21.573 --> 0:16:23.373 makes a difference. And of course it depends how the 0:16:23.453 --> 0:16:27.053 volume of votes are for these these these two groups, 0:16:27.213 --> 0:16:31.573 and it tells you how solid Trump's vote has been 0:16:31.653 --> 0:16:34.853 all along, you know, and therefore that it was always 0:16:34.893 --> 0:16:36.933 going to be there's also are going to be a 0:16:36.933 --> 0:16:39.173 close race. I mean, he was never going to do poorly. 0:16:39.213 --> 0:16:41.813 It's a question of did he almost get over the 0:16:41.813 --> 0:16:45.533 line like he officially did last time, or didn't do 0:16:45.653 --> 0:16:51.493 last time, or with new voters and enough switchers from 0:16:51.573 --> 0:16:56.853 the Democrats, either past voters or people who maybe didn't 0:16:56.893 --> 0:16:59.693 vote last time, would he would he make it? And 0:16:59.773 --> 0:17:02.173 what's been interesting is that what they call the sort 0:17:02.173 --> 0:17:06.053 of the flippers, those who voted one way last time 0:17:06.053 --> 0:17:08.853 and then voted nipway this up. He's been winning those 0:17:09.213 --> 0:17:14.093 two to one pretty consistently. And it's not doesn't change 0:17:14.133 --> 0:17:16.893 everything those kinds of numbers because we're they're at the margin, 0:17:16.933 --> 0:17:19.853 But in a in a close race nationally or in 0:17:19.893 --> 0:17:22.373 swing states, you know, that can be everything. 0:17:23.653 --> 0:17:27.973 Indeed, I'm just skipping a hit here at the at 0:17:27.973 --> 0:17:32.493 the moment, I don't think that the details of early 0:17:32.533 --> 0:17:36.693 in person voters matter too much to us, unless you 0:17:37.013 --> 0:17:42.333 think otherwise. Well, actually, actually I'm wrong, because you're you know, 0:17:42.373 --> 0:17:45.453 you look at the the votes for Trump early in 0:17:45.493 --> 0:17:49.653 person voters, fifty seven percent for Harris and that's that's 0:17:49.693 --> 0:17:52.213 a flip? Is that not on the on on previous ears? 0:17:53.493 --> 0:17:56.173 Yes, this is the Yeah, this is the thing. Is 0:17:56.213 --> 0:18:01.453 that Harris I mean the Democrats, you know, they've been 0:18:01.853 --> 0:18:05.053 crushing previous to this election the mail vote, not just 0:18:05.093 --> 0:18:08.573 simply in terms of volume, but in terms of the 0:18:08.733 --> 0:18:11.533 spread between them and the republic The Republicans were actually 0:18:11.533 --> 0:18:14.413 sort of consciously not going through the mail, and they've 0:18:14.413 --> 0:18:16.493 turned it around this time and they vote through the mail, 0:18:16.573 --> 0:18:20.333 vote through the mail, and the Republican numbers haven't actually 0:18:20.413 --> 0:18:22.773 shifted if you should have averaged it all out across 0:18:22.773 --> 0:18:25.253 the country, they haven't shifted that much. You say, Okay, 0:18:25.293 --> 0:18:27.813 well that doesn't that isn't much of a help. Well, 0:18:27.853 --> 0:18:30.133 actually it is, because you know, we had all this 0:18:30.173 --> 0:18:33.293 male in voting because of COVID and so many people 0:18:33.333 --> 0:18:35.933 foind it convenient to do it that way. So for 0:18:36.013 --> 0:18:39.493 the Republicans to sort of maintain roughly that level is 0:18:39.533 --> 0:18:43.133 quite good, particularly when you consider that in most states, 0:18:43.173 --> 0:18:46.853 basically the swing states, the Democrat mail in vote has 0:18:46.933 --> 0:18:51.413 dropped off considerably, and so there's both the difference between 0:18:51.493 --> 0:18:56.293 the who they're voting for is condensed, and also just 0:18:56.373 --> 0:18:58.613 the volume. You know, that lead like Harris has this 0:18:58.653 --> 0:19:02.053 eight point lead upon among those who voted by mail, 0:19:02.533 --> 0:19:04.733 but there are much fewer of them, so that eight 0:19:04.773 --> 0:19:07.213 points doesn't count as much as it did for Biden 0:19:07.253 --> 0:19:09.253 when the lead was far more eight points as well. 0:19:09.773 --> 0:19:12.933 And you look at the early in person that Trump 0:19:13.533 --> 0:19:17.733 has edged them out fifty one for those they have 0:19:17.813 --> 0:19:21.053 chosen Trump fifty one over forty seven for Harris. And 0:19:21.133 --> 0:19:24.733 again that's that's a big improvement in all these different 0:19:24.773 --> 0:19:27.853 ways for the Republicans visa v. The Democrats. And so 0:19:28.173 --> 0:19:31.133 when you when you put those two together, those who 0:19:31.173 --> 0:19:33.693 mailed in their ballots and those who voted in person 0:19:33.733 --> 0:19:37.413 but early, you put it in the in the synthesize it, 0:19:37.453 --> 0:19:41.093 you know, number data wise, and you end up with 0:19:41.213 --> 0:19:45.213 going into election day Harris with a small advantage sort 0:19:45.213 --> 0:19:48.413 of two three points. And then it becomes election day 0:19:49.533 --> 0:19:53.813 becomes about who gets their people, those that are remaining 0:19:53.933 --> 0:19:56.933 roughly half to actually physically go and vote. And it's 0:19:56.933 --> 0:20:01.173 traditionally been the day when Republicans either caught up and 0:20:01.213 --> 0:20:04.573 overtook the Democrats or you know, failed to do so. 0:20:04.573 --> 0:20:09.613 So both sides had everything riding, have everything riding on 0:20:09.893 --> 0:20:12.693 the in person election day vote. 0:20:12.933 --> 0:20:14.813 Tell me something, what are recalled vote? 0:20:16.213 --> 0:20:21.133 Recalled votes are asking people who they voted for last time. 0:20:21.453 --> 0:20:23.133 If you know I did a vote last time, and 0:20:23.173 --> 0:20:26.293 if they did, who they voted for. The reason for asking, well, 0:20:27.293 --> 0:20:28.893 a bunch of reasons for ask any question, but the 0:20:29.333 --> 0:20:34.013 real true reason for asking that is to it's a 0:20:34.093 --> 0:20:36.333 kind of an insurance policy or a safety net to 0:20:36.413 --> 0:20:38.813 make sure that you're not talking to a skewed group. 0:20:39.213 --> 0:20:41.733 That is, you know, like if I if we've done 0:20:41.733 --> 0:20:46.533 this poll and our recalled vote was, you know, ten 0:20:46.573 --> 0:20:50.893 points Trump ahead ten points from twenty twenty, we had 0:20:50.933 --> 0:20:55.853 ten percent more Trump voters than were in the actual electorate, 0:20:56.253 --> 0:20:57.813 then what we would have to do, if we didn't 0:20:57.813 --> 0:20:59.453 want to chuck the whole thing out, is we would 0:20:59.533 --> 0:21:02.453 have to then weight everything for that basis to take 0:21:02.453 --> 0:21:08.813 away Trump votes and Republican volume throughout the poll. So 0:21:09.013 --> 0:21:13.013 just give you one quick example. On the weekend, your 0:21:13.013 --> 0:21:15.893 listeners might have heard about it. One or two state 0:21:15.973 --> 0:21:19.893 poles that came out that surprised everybody with how well 0:21:19.973 --> 0:21:23.253 Harris was doing. And of course it turns out in 0:21:23.293 --> 0:21:28.853 both cases the recalled vote was massively pro Biden from 0:21:28.893 --> 0:21:33.413 twenty twenty, way beyond just you know, double digits difference 0:21:33.453 --> 0:21:38.573 from how that state actually voted, And so you adjust 0:21:38.693 --> 0:21:41.693 that and suddenly Harris doesn't have this surprising lead. She's 0:21:41.733 --> 0:21:45.733 actually still behind. And so when we saw our recall 0:21:45.813 --> 0:21:51.053 vote is actually the charts, the slides don't allow for 0:21:52.253 --> 0:21:56.453 you know, decimal points. So our recall vote was actually 0:21:56.573 --> 0:22:01.853 forty nine point five for Biden to forty six, which 0:22:01.893 --> 0:22:04.813 is a little less than the official popular vote margin 0:22:05.173 --> 0:22:09.573 he won by, but not much. So that told hold 0:22:09.653 --> 0:22:13.173 us whatever else might not be, you know, kosher with 0:22:13.213 --> 0:22:16.413 this poll. Perhaps we'll find out. Then over the next 0:22:16.453 --> 0:22:19.613 couple of days, we do have a group that does 0:22:20.213 --> 0:22:25.053 those who voted last time are an accurate reflection of 0:22:25.093 --> 0:22:28.053 twenty twenty. And then of course, you know you've talked 0:22:28.053 --> 0:22:30.453 to all the new voters and see what they're thinking 0:22:30.653 --> 0:22:31.733 and put that all together. 0:22:32.853 --> 0:22:37.253 Okay, One that intrigues me that I hadn't seen anywhere else, 0:22:37.853 --> 0:22:41.453 and that is new voter's choice. And the margin is considerable. 0:22:41.733 --> 0:22:47.093 Yes, it's sixteen points, which is you know, new voters 0:22:47.133 --> 0:22:50.693 are about seven percent. There's about six or seven percent 0:22:50.733 --> 0:22:54.013 who have voted before, but not that often, not that regular. 0:22:54.053 --> 0:22:57.133 And then you've got seven percent who have never voted before. 0:22:57.133 --> 0:22:59.773 And they're not all young people, most of them are, 0:22:59.893 --> 0:23:01.853 but a lot of them have folks who just just 0:23:01.893 --> 0:23:04.933 weren't interested in many and they're even registered to vote. 0:23:06.573 --> 0:23:10.293 So that is what that's obviously it's a very positive 0:23:10.293 --> 0:23:16.773 sign for Trump. But what it tells us, or reminds us, 0:23:17.533 --> 0:23:22.573 is of Trump's appeal beyond the traditional Republican conservative voter, 0:23:23.573 --> 0:23:27.693 of whom there are simply no longer a sufficient number 0:23:27.733 --> 0:23:34.533 to win a national election. And Trump has for the 0:23:34.533 --> 0:23:39.333 third time running, perhaps most expertly this time, will see 0:23:40.013 --> 0:23:43.653 he has been able to his campaigns have been able 0:23:43.693 --> 0:23:52.853 to identify, reach, persuade, motivate Americans who stopped voting ten 0:23:52.893 --> 0:23:58.213 twenty years ago, who never voted, or, counterintuitively to many 0:23:58.333 --> 0:24:02.773 this time in twenty four are only just approaching their 0:24:03.053 --> 0:24:07.213 first opportunity to vote. And he is doing. You know, 0:24:07.253 --> 0:24:12.213 his support among eighteen to twenty nine year olds, sort 0:24:12.253 --> 0:24:18.253 of your zoomers, is in the forties now, whereas last 0:24:18.253 --> 0:24:22.853 time that age group he was in the high teens. Right, 0:24:23.293 --> 0:24:26.933 So that's all going very well. And of course that 0:24:27.413 --> 0:24:29.733 a lot of those folks, some of them have voted before, 0:24:29.773 --> 0:24:34.293 but a lot of them haven't. And so these those 0:24:34.493 --> 0:24:37.213 the new voters and the occasional voters are what in 0:24:37.253 --> 0:24:42.333 the polling business you call low propensity voters, and when 0:24:42.453 --> 0:24:45.453 so many elections pliculing in America are about turnout rather 0:24:45.493 --> 0:24:49.293