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Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news talks ITB. Follow

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Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.

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Speaker 2: It's time for all the.

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Speaker 1: Attitude, all the opinion, all the information, all the debates

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Speaker 1: of us now the lighton Smith podcast cow it by

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Speaker 1: news talks ITB.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to podcasts two hundred and sixty three for November six,

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four. And it is November five in the

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Speaker 3: United States of America, and today is election day. That

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Speaker 3: has promised some insight and coverage from early in the

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Speaker 3: count and Patrick Basham from Democracy Institute releases exit poll

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Speaker 3: numbers that of course will be replaced with some real

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Speaker 3: life numbers in the very near future, if not already.

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Speaker 3: But watching Upholster at work and seeing how accurate he

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Speaker 3: and his team are is just part of the interesting

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Speaker 3: game now. Whatever the outcome of Patrick delivers his usual

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Speaker 3: quality commentary. Over the last few weeks, even last few days,

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Speaker 3: I've realized something of importance. The FSU, the Free Speech Union,

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Speaker 3: has not been overstating its case, not been for a period.

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Speaker 3: I was wondering if they were in a state of overkill.

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Speaker 3: It seemed that there were any number of international commentators

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Speaker 3: visiting New Zealand with some more coming. But after interviewing

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Speaker 3: the latest and present guest, I've realized that the FSU

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Speaker 3: is on track. The discussion with Nigel big Ar and

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Speaker 3: reading a lot of his work nailed it for me.

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Speaker 3: Professor Bigger wrote the Higher Education Freedom of Speech Bill

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one for Britain. But his work doesn't stop there. Well,

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Speaker 3: actually did, but there's a story behind. It's interesting and

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Speaker 3: I believe that you will greatly appreciate his analysis. But

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Speaker 3: in just a moment, Patrick Basham now from the Democracy Institute,

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Speaker 3: Patrick Basham. Patrick actually has been very busy, how can

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Speaker 3: I say it. He's been working his butt off. After

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Speaker 3: spending a few days in Doha at an investment conference,

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Speaker 3: he raced back to Washington. I spoke to him from

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Speaker 3: the airport. Actually he raced back to Washington to cover

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Speaker 3: the election. And we had the Institute's final polling numbers

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Speaker 3: twenty four hours ago, will say, and now as a

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Speaker 3: result of Patrick's association with the Daily Express in the US,

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Speaker 3: we have some exit poll figures. It is great to

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Speaker 3: have you back on the podcast, and this is something

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Speaker 3: that we've never done before and it's made difficult Patrick,

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Speaker 3: as you well know by the fact that the timing

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Speaker 3: of this election as opposed to this podcast, and it's

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Speaker 3: their fault, not mine, that we are up against the clock,

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Speaker 3: so to speak. But that doesn't mean that a lot

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Speaker 3: of people are very interested in what you have to say.

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Speaker 2: I was very kind of you, kind of to have

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Speaker 2: me back on the program again. Or it's good to

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Speaker 2: talk to you. It's such an exciting time. I mean

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Speaker 2: when you say about timings, I can really appreciate it

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Speaker 2: because I've been had such a whirlwind trip to Middle

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Speaker 2: East and came back so sleep deprived that all of

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Speaker 2: the time zones across America are challenging me with the

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Speaker 2: with the polling, let alone the top there the more

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Speaker 2: transcontinental one you're dealing with, But there's already lots to

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Speaker 2: chew on, I think, so I think it should be

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Speaker 2: an interesting conversation.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's let's have a look at the exit

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Speaker 3: figures that you came up with, because they are interesting.

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Speaker 3: You didn't do any state by state, Am I right

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Speaker 3: or wrong?

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Speaker 2: Correct? The reason for that is, I mean, partly, you know,

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Speaker 2: cost timing logistics, but also we just done a whole

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Speaker 2: series of swing state polls and we thought that now

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Speaker 2: we and the newspaper thought the national polls should be

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Speaker 2: truly that and that we could pick and you know,

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Speaker 2: we could instead of doing a national poll, we could

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Speaker 2: pick one or two exit swing states do exit poles,

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Speaker 2: and they might prove to be the pivotal ones. But

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Speaker 2: you know, it's a guess. It's a guestimate, and we

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Speaker 2: thought that we would be able to hoped we would

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Speaker 2: be able to pick up in a national exit pole

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Speaker 2: whatever what was that was changing or whatever it was

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Speaker 2: most meaningful. So that's that's the sort of risk we took.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think you've done the greatest number of people

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Speaker 3: that you've done so far, am I right?

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Speaker 2: That is right, Yes, we've done well. It was twenty

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty I think it was the was

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Speaker 2: the final tally. So that's quite a bit more than

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Speaker 2: we normally do and more than we would have done

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Speaker 2: if we'd done individual states. So it's you know, we're

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Speaker 2: pretty confident that we got our arms around those who

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Speaker 2: had already voted, I mean the vote. The voting is

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Speaker 2: still going on in most places, so you know, because

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Speaker 2: you have to get these things done and in a

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Speaker 2: little early we hope it's not premature in terms of results,

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Speaker 2: but you know, you just try to you just try

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Speaker 2: to nail down what you can and and cover your

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Speaker 2: basis and would say your butt as well as you can.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I mean, as a long standing critic

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Speaker 2: of exit polls, I'd be the first one to say

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Speaker 2: that these are as much art as science.

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Speaker 3: Are you started with the voting method?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the interesting thing about this year's exit

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Speaker 2: pole because traditionally is I'm sure your audience is aware,

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Speaker 2: exit polls are usually what we used to call man

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Speaker 2: on the street or person in the street, person coming

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Speaker 2: out of the polling station, interviews and lots of young

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Speaker 2: people would be hired at certain locations around the country,

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Speaker 2: whether it was you know, UK, Canada, US, you name it,

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Speaker 2: and then there asked a series of questions and those

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Speaker 2: are fed back. One of the problems with that, of course,

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Speaker 2: is it's it's you have to you know, it's you

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Speaker 2: have to which locations do you choose? But the biggest problem,

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Speaker 2: what we thought the challenge was was the fact that

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Speaker 2: at the time time when we arranged this with the newspaper,

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Speaker 2: we were looking at about thirty five forty percent of

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Speaker 2: people had already voted for exit poles. Correct, it's now

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Speaker 2: more than half before election day, So that means even

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Speaker 2: if you do a fantastic job of an exit poll

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Speaker 2: on election day, you're going to miss half the voters.

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Speaker 2: So we thought it made you know, that's really the

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Speaker 2: main reason we did what we did. And so when

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Speaker 2: we started it, especially early today with the calling, it

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Speaker 2: was we were pleasantly surprised that the comparative willingness of

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Speaker 2: people to want the ability of people to speak because

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Speaker 2: disproportionate number of people had already voted, and so we

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Speaker 2: could start getting some serious data and numbers in results

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Speaker 2: in you know, well before you would have traditionally expected.

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Speaker 3: Are you the only one doing it this way? Do

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Speaker 3: you think? Or are some of the other big boys

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Speaker 3: following the same routine of calling than standing outside booze?

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Speaker 2: I'm I hesitate to say, I know this definitively. I

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Speaker 2: think we are. I think we are the only one

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Speaker 2: exclusively using our regular polling method. Could be proven wrong,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think so. I think they are mostly

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Speaker 2: traditional or some sort of hybrid's that's that's my sense.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So you divided that up into voting by mail,

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Speaker 3: early in person and election day and the figures of

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Speaker 3: twenty eight, thirty one and forty one. So let's get

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Speaker 3: into the really nitty gritty the president The presidential vote

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Speaker 3: is the simplest of all. I think you take it.

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Speaker 2: Sure. Our exit poll finds Trump ahead by four points,

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Speaker 2: fifty one to forty seven. And the point of reference

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Speaker 2: here when you do an exit pole, you know don't

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Speaker 2: know I mean we as you know, we finished up

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Speaker 2: our final poll national poll late last week, and you

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Speaker 2: don't know whether the exit pole is going to be

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Speaker 2: way different in one direction or going to be most identical.

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Speaker 2: This one turns out, at least in terms of the

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Speaker 2: popular vote, to be very close, because our last poll

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Speaker 2: is fifty to forty seven in Trump's favor. This is

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Speaker 2: fifty one to forty seven. So that part of it

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Speaker 2: tells us, well, I guess you might say, tells us

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Speaker 2: we're going to be doubly right or doubly wrong. But

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Speaker 2: it gives us some sense of security that we weren't

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Speaker 2: way off. At least our methods are consistent. And of course,

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Speaker 2: as exit polls. One of the problems with the exit

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Speaker 2: polls the outcome of the outcomes in North America anyways,

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Speaker 2: they tend nearly always to be biased towards the liberal

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Speaker 2: or left wing party or candidate, and whether the results

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Speaker 2: turn out to be accurate or not, and often they're not.

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Speaker 2: And so we didn't know whether that might be more

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Speaker 2: an outcome of the sort of method or whether it's

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Speaker 2: just another the bias found elsewhere. But finding that Trump

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Speaker 2: is in as good a position with those who've already

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Speaker 2: voted as those were prospective voters is obviously tells a lot.

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Speaker 2: And what I think it does at this early juncture

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Speaker 2: when we don't means we're as we're speaking, there's just

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Speaker 2: the very first little results trickling in. It tells us

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Speaker 2: that what has been apparently happening on the ground, what

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Speaker 2: has been measured on the ground today in America, across America,

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Speaker 2: with those you know, those who are the forty one

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Speaker 2: percent who were voting in person, that the comparatively strong

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Speaker 2: Republican turn out, the comparatively lower Democratic turnout might actually

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Speaker 2: be the case, you know, might be the case through

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Speaker 2: that through the.

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Speaker 4: Day, in the evening.

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Speaker 2: So this is good news for the Trump side, But

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure, I mean, I don't know yet what

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Speaker 2: the other exit polls may or may not be showing

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Speaker 2: because to release they head to head until the polls

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Speaker 2: are closed.

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Speaker 3: Right now, you've for demographics, you've done the list of

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Speaker 3: for nineteen and it's a very interesting result. I think,

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Speaker 3: let me run through it. Men, women, white, Black, Hispanic, Asian, GOP, Democrats, Independent, Catholic,

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Speaker 3: and then age groups eighteen to twenty nine, thirty to

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Speaker 3: thirty four, forty five to sixty four, sixty five plus urban, suburban,

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Speaker 3: small town, rural, middle class and blue collar. That must

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Speaker 3: have been the most difficult part of part of doing it,

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Speaker 3: I would think. But what stood out to you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of things stand out, and then most

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Speaker 2: of the things that have actually stood out all year

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Speaker 2: because you're aware of no late and then some of

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Speaker 2: your audience. Maybe our numbers haven't changed that much over

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Speaker 2: the course of the year. So the things that stand out,

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Speaker 2: especially if you're looking at this a new are the

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Speaker 2: minority votes. That's arguably the most telling, the fact that

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Speaker 2: according to our exit Paul, you know, Trump's getting more

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Speaker 2: than one in five black vote and he's getting almost

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Speaker 2: one in two Hispanic votes. And that you know, when

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Speaker 2: you when you drill down a bit, what that means

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Speaker 2: you've got more Hispanic men than women choosing Trump rather

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Speaker 2: than the traditional Democrat vote. However, it's not there's not

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Speaker 2: a lot in it. You know, Trump is quite popular

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Speaker 2: with Hispanic women, whereas on the black side, you're looking

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Speaker 2: at over thirty percent thirty thirty five percent of Black

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Speaker 2: men voting for Trump. But the last holdout for the Democrats,

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Speaker 2: particularly with Kamala Harris as the candidate, are black women's. Basically,

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Speaker 2: I'm talking about middle aged and old, older black women.

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Speaker 2: And so you you put that high that high compared

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Speaker 2: to be high figure among men that can party of

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Speaker 2: low figure among black women together, and you end up

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Speaker 2: with sort of a little over one in five. So

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Speaker 2: those two numbers alone, you know, if you ask me, okay,

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Speaker 2: you know, pick pick one or two of these demographic subgroups,

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Speaker 2: and you know, and make your your wager on who wins,

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Speaker 2: those are the ones I'd pick because it's just historically

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Speaker 2: and arithmetically, it's just really hard borrowing on impossible for

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Speaker 2: the Democrats to win a contemporary American national election with

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Speaker 2: only in inverted commerce, seventy eight percent of the Black

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Speaker 2: vote or half of the Hispanic vote. They just can't

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Speaker 2: make it up with white voters. There are only so

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Speaker 2: many white liberal women to go around. You know, whether

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Speaker 2: some people might view that editorially is a good thing,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of the arithmetic, lectural arithmetic, for the Democrats,

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Speaker 2: it's unfortunate. And that's why they count on, you know,

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Speaker 2: such your uniform almost you know, universal within those electorates

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Speaker 2: court and so we don't when you don't get that.

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Speaker 2: The other two that jump out at me, they often

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Speaker 2: mirror each other, although they aren't. They aren't the same

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Speaker 2: people's This overlap is the independence who are we The

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Speaker 2: exit poll has Trump up eight points. Independents don't always

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Speaker 2: reflect the winner, but they usually do. And the other

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Speaker 2: one is the Catholic vote. And the reason we've highlighted

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Speaker 2: that is the evangelical vote is very important. It's overwhelmingly

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Speaker 2: for Trump. You have atheists is much smaller, overwhelmingly for Harris.

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Speaker 2: And then your sort of traditional Protestant, various Protestant denominations

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Speaker 2: that tend to skew Republican. But Catholics are a swing

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Speaker 2: are these swing maybe the only swing religious group block

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Speaker 2: in America? They tend to go with the winner. Doesn't

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Speaker 2: tend to be a big difference between the two sides,

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Speaker 2: and it's very much like the independent vote. We've got

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Speaker 2: an eight point lead for Trump, and that also again,

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Speaker 2: you know, if you're looking at this in terms of

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Speaker 2: what a history tells us, it tells us that the

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Speaker 2: Independents and Catholics are going for going for one candidate,

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Speaker 2: and the other candidates lost a good chunk of their

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Speaker 2: minority vote which they had count on. You know, that

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Speaker 2: suggests the wind is blowing in this particular direction.

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Speaker 3: There are two columns that I'm interested in at this point.

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Speaker 3: One is for the Democrats. The other is for the Republicans,

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Speaker 3: the GOP. And the reason that I that I'm interested

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Speaker 3: is because I missed it in the Republican column because

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Speaker 3: it's right at the bottom. But overall, let me just

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Speaker 3: explain something. This is this is a this is a

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Speaker 3: row of shop what do you what would you call

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Speaker 3: them polls or what? A row of vertical.

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Speaker 2: Yes, they're they're stacked columns.

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Speaker 3: Right, That's what I wanted. Ah, And then you've got

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Speaker 3: you've got Harris at the bottom and Trump at the top.

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Speaker 3: So it's blue and red and the in the GOP column,

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Speaker 3: the Democrat sorry, the Republican column you've got ninety six

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Speaker 3: percent for Trump voted for Trump, four percent of Republicans

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Speaker 3: voted for Harris. And then on the other side, you've

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Speaker 3: got ninety four percent voting for Harris and six percent

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Speaker 3: voting for Trump. Now that means it's very close, but

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Speaker 3: Trump came out top in that.

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Speaker 2: That's right, And let's you know, be consistent whether it

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Speaker 2: was Biden or Harris's Democratic candidate. For a year or two,

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Speaker 2: Trump has been holding on to almost everyone who considers

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Speaker 2: himself a Republican and almost everyone who voted for him

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Speaker 2: last time. On the Democratic side, it hasn't been disastrous,

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Speaker 2: but there's been a little bit of blea kitch compared

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Speaker 2: to Trump's voters a few, you know, it's been sort

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Speaker 2: of high single digits who voted for him last time

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Speaker 2: was saying they wouldn't versus low single digits on the

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Speaker 2: Trump side. And you know, in a close race, that

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Speaker 2: makes a difference. And of course it depends how the

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Speaker 2: volume of votes are for these these these two groups,

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Speaker 2: and it tells you how solid Trump's vote has been

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Speaker 2: all along, you know, and therefore that it was always

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Speaker 2: going to be there's also are going to be a

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Speaker 2: close race. I mean, he was never going to do poorly.

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Speaker 2: It's a question of did he almost get over the

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Speaker 2: line like he officially did last time, or didn't do

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Speaker 2: last time, or with new voters and enough switchers from

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Speaker 2: the Democrats, either past voters or people who maybe didn't

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Speaker 2: vote last time, would he would he make it? And

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Speaker 2: what's been interesting is that what they call the sort

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Speaker 2: of the flippers, those who voted one way last time

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Speaker 2: and then voted nipway this up. He's been winning those

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Speaker 2: two to one pretty consistently. And it's not doesn't change

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Speaker 2: everything those kinds of numbers because we're they're at the margin,

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Speaker 2: But in a in a close race nationally or in

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Speaker 2: swing states, you know, that can be everything.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, I'm just skipping a hit here at the at

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Speaker 3: the moment, I don't think that the details of early

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Speaker 3: in person voters matter too much to us, unless you

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Speaker 3: think otherwise. Well, actually, actually I'm wrong, because you're you know,

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Speaker 3: you look at the the votes for Trump early in

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Speaker 3: person voters, fifty seven percent for Harris and that's that's

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Speaker 3: a flip? Is that not on the on on previous ears?

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Speaker 2: Yes, this is the Yeah, this is the thing. Is

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Speaker 2: that Harris I mean the Democrats, you know, they've been

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Speaker 2: crushing previous to this election the mail vote, not just

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Speaker 2: simply in terms of volume, but in terms of the

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Speaker 2: spread between them and the republic The Republicans were actually

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Speaker 2: sort of consciously not going through the mail, and they've

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Speaker 2: turned it around this time and they vote through the mail,

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Speaker 2: vote through the mail, and the Republican numbers haven't actually

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Speaker 2: shifted if you should have averaged it all out across

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Speaker 2: the country, they haven't shifted that much. You say, Okay,

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Speaker 2: well that doesn't that isn't much of a help. Well,

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Speaker 2: actually it is, because you know, we had all this

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Speaker 2: male in voting because of COVID and so many people

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Speaker 2: foind it convenient to do it that way. So for

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Speaker 2: the Republicans to sort of maintain roughly that level is

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Speaker 2: quite good, particularly when you consider that in most states,

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Speaker 2: basically the swing states, the Democrat mail in vote has

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Speaker 2: dropped off considerably, and so there's both the difference between

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Speaker 2: the who they're voting for is condensed, and also just

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Speaker 2: the volume. You know, that lead like Harris has this

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Speaker 2: eight point lead upon among those who voted by mail,

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Speaker 2: but there are much fewer of them, so that eight

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Speaker 2: points doesn't count as much as it did for Biden

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Speaker 2: when the lead was far more eight points as well.

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Speaker 2: And you look at the early in person that Trump

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Speaker 2: has edged them out fifty one for those they have

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Speaker 2: chosen Trump fifty one over forty seven for Harris. And

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Speaker 2: again that's that's a big improvement in all these different

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Speaker 2: ways for the Republicans visa v. The Democrats. And so

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Speaker 2: when you when you put those two together, those who

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Speaker 2: mailed in their ballots and those who voted in person

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Speaker 2: but early, you put it in the in the synthesize it,

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Speaker 2: you know, number data wise, and you end up with

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Speaker 2: going into election day Harris with a small advantage sort

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Speaker 2: of two three points. And then it becomes election day

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Speaker 2: becomes about who gets their people, those that are remaining

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Speaker 2: roughly half to actually physically go and vote. And it's

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Speaker 2: traditionally been the day when Republicans either caught up and

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Speaker 2: overtook the Democrats or you know, failed to do so.

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Speaker 2: So both sides had everything riding, have everything riding on

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Speaker 2: the in person election day vote.

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Speaker 3: Tell me something, what are recalled vote?

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Speaker 2: Recalled votes are asking people who they voted for last time.

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Speaker 2: If you know I did a vote last time, and

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Speaker 2: if they did, who they voted for. The reason for asking, well,

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Speaker 2: a bunch of reasons for ask any question, but the

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Speaker 2: real true reason for asking that is to it's a

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Speaker 2: kind of an insurance policy or a safety net to

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Speaker 2: make sure that you're not talking to a skewed group.

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Speaker 2: That is, you know, like if I if we've done

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Speaker 2: this poll and our recalled vote was, you know, ten

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Speaker 2: points Trump ahead ten points from twenty twenty, we had

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Speaker 2: ten percent more Trump voters than were in the actual electorate,

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Speaker 2: then what we would have to do, if we didn't

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Speaker 2: want to chuck the whole thing out, is we would

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Speaker 2: have to then weight everything for that basis to take

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Speaker 2: away Trump votes and Republican volume throughout the poll. So

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Speaker 2: just give you one quick example. On the weekend, your

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Speaker 2: listeners might have heard about it. One or two state

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Speaker 2: poles that came out that surprised everybody with how well

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Speaker 2: Harris was doing. And of course it turns out in

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Speaker 2: both cases the recalled vote was massively pro Biden from

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty, way beyond just you know, double digits difference

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Speaker 2: from how that state actually voted, And so you adjust

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Speaker 2: that and suddenly Harris doesn't have this surprising lead. She's

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Speaker 2: actually still behind. And so when we saw our recall

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Speaker 2: vote is actually the charts, the slides don't allow for

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Speaker 2: you know, decimal points. So our recall vote was actually

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Speaker 2: forty nine point five for Biden to forty six, which

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Speaker 2: is a little less than the official popular vote margin

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Speaker 2: he won by, but not much. So that told hold

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Speaker 2: us whatever else might not be, you know, kosher with

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Speaker 2: this poll. Perhaps we'll find out. Then over the next

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Speaker 2: couple of days, we do have a group that does

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Speaker 2: those who voted last time are an accurate reflection of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty. And then of course, you know you've talked

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Speaker 2: to all the new voters and see what they're thinking

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Speaker 2: and put that all together.

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Speaker 3: Okay, One that intrigues me that I hadn't seen anywhere else,

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Speaker 3: and that is new voter's choice. And the margin is considerable.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it's sixteen points, which is you know, new voters

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Speaker 2: are about seven percent. There's about six or seven percent

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Speaker 2: who have voted before, but not that often, not that regular.

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Speaker 2: And then you've got seven percent who have never voted before.

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Speaker 2: And they're not all young people, most of them are,

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Speaker 2: but a lot of them have folks who just just

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Speaker 2: weren't interested in many and they're even registered to vote.

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Speaker 2: So that is what that's obviously it's a very positive

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Speaker 2: sign for Trump. But what it tells us, or reminds us,

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Speaker 2: is of Trump's appeal beyond the traditional Republican conservative voter,

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Speaker 2: of whom there are simply no longer a sufficient number

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Speaker 2: to win a national election. And Trump has for the

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Speaker 2: third time running, perhaps most expertly this time, will see

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Speaker 2: he has been able to his campaigns have been able

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Speaker 2: to identify, reach, persuade, motivate Americans who stopped voting ten

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Speaker 2: twenty years ago, who never voted, or, counterintuitively to many

390
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Speaker 2: this time in twenty four are only just approaching their

391
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Speaker 2: first opportunity to vote. And he is doing. You know,

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Speaker 2: his support among eighteen to twenty nine year olds, sort

393
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Speaker 2: of your zoomers, is in the forties now, whereas last

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Speaker 2: time that age group he was in the high teens. Right,

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Speaker 2: So that's all going very well. And of course that

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Speaker 2: a lot of those folks, some of them have voted before,

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Speaker 2: but a lot of them haven't. And so these those

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Speaker 2: the new voters and the occasional voters are what in

399
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Speaker 2: the polling business you call low propensity voters, and when

400
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Speaker 2: so many elections pliculing in America are about turnout rather

401
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Speaker 2: than persuasion, certainly in the latter stages, and with the

402
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Speaker 2: partisan divide so strong and so set so sort of

403
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Speaker 2: in the cement, whichever side can identify and reach and

404
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Speaker 2: motivate low propensity voters is almost certainly going to win.

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Speaker 2: And it was part of the secret source of a

406
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Speaker 2: lot of a secret source of all those unexpected mail

407
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Speaker 2: in ballots the Democrats of twenty twenty. Many of the

408
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Speaker 2: people whose names at least were on those ballots had

409
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Speaker 2: never voted before, or hadn't voted for a long time,

410
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Speaker 2: and even some of them, many of them didn't even

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Speaker 2: know they voted in twenty twenty. But this time the

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Speaker 2: Trump campaign recognized from the get go that this was

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Speaker 2: how they could potentially turn an absolute squeaker They might win,

414
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Speaker 2: they might not to have a coin toss election into

415
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Speaker 2: one that gave them a greater chance of victory likelihood

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Speaker 2: of victory. And so most of their outreach they're knocking

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Speaker 2: on doors and text messages and all that kind of thing,

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Speaker 2: has been to identify people who they think, for one

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Speaker 2: reason or another, would be inclined to support them, many

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Speaker 2: of them former Democrats, many of them independents, and get

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Speaker 2: enough of them out to make a difference. And whether

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Speaker 2: he wins the election or not, they've certainly made a

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Speaker 2: substantial out of progress in that direction.

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Speaker 3: So the expected winner, yes, is based on anything else

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Speaker 3: other than the results you got in this.

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Speaker 2: No, no, no, it's I can. I mean, if you

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Speaker 2: have the time, I can explain to you why we

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Speaker 2: asked these sort of crazy questions.

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Speaker 3: I'll leave that to you whether you want to do it.

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Speaker 2: Give me enough rope to hang myself if I forget,

431
00:26:34,293 --> 00:26:38,453
Speaker 2: to thank you later. So that is one of the

432
00:26:38,493 --> 00:26:43,613
Speaker 2: ways that we attempt to tease out how people are

433
00:26:43,653 --> 00:26:46,493
Speaker 2: really thinking and how strong their support is for one

434
00:26:46,533 --> 00:26:50,373
Speaker 2: candidate or another. Because one of the tricks we learned,

435
00:26:50,813 --> 00:26:53,213
Speaker 2: you know, our first so let's say our only, but

436
00:26:53,453 --> 00:26:56,133
Speaker 2: our only claims to fame in the polling world, was

437
00:26:56,173 --> 00:26:58,973
Speaker 2: that we nailed the Brexit vote in the UK at

438
00:26:58,973 --> 00:27:01,573
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, right. And one of the ways we were

439
00:27:01,613 --> 00:27:05,733
Speaker 2: able to do that and then identify mostly successfully the

440
00:27:05,773 --> 00:27:09,773
Speaker 2: Trump vote in America ever since is getting our arms

441
00:27:09,813 --> 00:27:14,373
Speaker 2: around the shy Brexit voter, the shy Trump voter h

442
00:27:14,973 --> 00:27:17,733
Speaker 2: and one of the ways we figured out you could

443
00:27:17,733 --> 00:27:21,253
Speaker 2: do that was when you had these sort of disproportionate

444
00:27:21,333 --> 00:27:24,813
Speaker 2: number of undecided voters who clearly, based on their answers

445
00:27:24,813 --> 00:27:28,653
Speaker 2: to other questions, were sympathetic to Brexit or tremble whoever,

446
00:27:28,653 --> 00:27:31,653
Speaker 2: whatever the cause or person may be, but wouldn't but

447
00:27:31,693 --> 00:27:35,053
Speaker 2: put said and maintain they were undecided if you ask,

448
00:27:35,133 --> 00:27:37,453
Speaker 2: It turns out if you ask them questions not about

449
00:27:37,493 --> 00:27:43,053
Speaker 2: themselves but about others, they are far more likely to

450
00:27:43,053 --> 00:27:47,373
Speaker 2: to indirectly indicate to you what they plan on doing. So, yeah,

451
00:27:47,413 --> 00:27:50,093
Speaker 2: so you ask them about their neighbor, you ask them

452
00:27:50,133 --> 00:27:53,333
Speaker 2: about their friends, their relatives, their wife, the people they

453
00:27:53,333 --> 00:27:56,533
Speaker 2: work with, or you asked them and or you ask

454
00:27:56,653 --> 00:28:00,373
Speaker 2: them so you know you're undecided. No one knows what's

455
00:28:00,373 --> 00:28:01,613
Speaker 2: gonna happen. Who do you think is going to win?

456
00:28:01,933 --> 00:28:03,653
Speaker 2: And it's amazing how many of these people have a

457
00:28:03,653 --> 00:28:06,813
Speaker 2: really strong opinion about it's going to win. And so

458
00:28:07,733 --> 00:28:09,773
Speaker 2: it's another part that have signed for Trump fifty three

459
00:28:09,893 --> 00:28:13,813
Speaker 2: forty six. It's a greater margin then you find in

460
00:28:13,853 --> 00:28:16,373
Speaker 2: this exit poll, or we always find there's a greater

461
00:28:16,493 --> 00:28:18,693
Speaker 2: margin a few points. You know, if we find a

462
00:28:18,933 --> 00:28:20,573
Speaker 2: we do a poll with most of our polls have

463
00:28:20,653 --> 00:28:24,093
Speaker 2: been recently nationally Trump up by two or three. You

464
00:28:24,213 --> 00:28:25,933
Speaker 2: ask the question about who you think's going to win,

465
00:28:26,653 --> 00:28:29,133
Speaker 2: or who your neighbors voting for, and you get Trump

466
00:28:29,213 --> 00:28:32,973
Speaker 2: up by four or six or eight. Uh, it always

467
00:28:33,053 --> 00:28:37,333
Speaker 2: goes in that direction. And what I think when we

468
00:28:37,373 --> 00:28:41,693
Speaker 2: think from our polls, we've been able to demonstrate that,

469
00:28:42,413 --> 00:28:45,213
Speaker 2: you know, that does tell you something. But if you

470
00:28:45,293 --> 00:28:49,013
Speaker 2: simply think about Trump's performance, this will be his third election,

471
00:28:49,533 --> 00:28:53,613
Speaker 2: whether it's primaries, caucuses, or general elections, whether he wins, loses,

472
00:28:53,653 --> 00:28:57,893
Speaker 2: whatever he does, he nearly always out votes his polling,

473
00:28:57,973 --> 00:29:00,653
Speaker 2: whether it's a point five points, you know, he just

474
00:29:01,893 --> 00:29:05,933
Speaker 2: the poll Most posters underestimate Trump. I mean, it's just

475
00:29:05,973 --> 00:29:08,853
Speaker 2: a fact. And obviously one of the key ess this

476
00:29:08,973 --> 00:29:12,453
Speaker 2: time is is that going to happen again? And I

477
00:29:12,493 --> 00:29:14,413
Speaker 2: have suspected it would. I didn't know, you know, you

478
00:29:14,413 --> 00:29:18,453
Speaker 2: don't know to how to what degree, But it's, uh,

479
00:29:18,533 --> 00:29:20,453
Speaker 2: that's what I've always said. And again, over the next

480
00:29:20,533 --> 00:29:23,093
Speaker 2: number of hours and days, I maybe be proven completely wrong.

481
00:29:23,373 --> 00:29:25,733
Speaker 2: But I've been saying all year to people that the

482
00:29:25,893 --> 00:29:30,293
Speaker 2: narrow lead that we've been finding consistently for Trump, we

483
00:29:30,573 --> 00:29:33,373
Speaker 2: obviously we could be wrong. But if we are wrong

484
00:29:33,733 --> 00:29:35,253
Speaker 2: and you ask you put a gun to my head,

485
00:29:35,253 --> 00:29:39,573
Speaker 2: I'd say we are underestimating his vote rather than overestimating

486
00:29:39,613 --> 00:29:42,253
Speaker 2: his vote, you know, to be you know, I don't

487
00:29:42,253 --> 00:29:44,413
Speaker 2: know whether I'll be proven right or not, but this

488
00:29:44,653 --> 00:29:47,653
Speaker 2: kind of a result on the exit poll suggests there

489
00:29:47,733 --> 00:29:52,133
Speaker 2: might be something to my guess.

490
00:29:53,413 --> 00:29:57,253
Speaker 3: Is there anything anything else apart from the any anything

491
00:29:57,293 --> 00:30:01,813
Speaker 3: personal that you would like to throw into this conversation

492
00:30:02,013 --> 00:30:08,053
Speaker 3: briefly checking the time? Ah, about how you think it's

493
00:30:08,093 --> 00:30:12,093
Speaker 3: kind of now, or anything that's out of order, or

494
00:30:12,133 --> 00:30:14,893
Speaker 3: any any election day surprise.

495
00:30:16,293 --> 00:30:22,893
Speaker 2: Right, Well, intellectually, my own judgments of what will happen

496
00:30:22,933 --> 00:30:25,493
Speaker 2: are based I mean, obviously I'm a greg proponent of polling,

497
00:30:25,573 --> 00:30:28,973
Speaker 2: but polling can be wrong, and polling isn't everything, And

498
00:30:29,493 --> 00:30:31,853
Speaker 2: there are all kinds of other dozens of other metrics,

499
00:30:31,853 --> 00:30:35,973
Speaker 2: some empirical, some anecdotal, which historically have are is that

500
00:30:36,053 --> 00:30:39,053
Speaker 2: proven as accurate or even more accurate than polling? So

501
00:30:39,173 --> 00:30:42,613
Speaker 2: my brain, you know, I try to get my intellectual

502
00:30:42,693 --> 00:30:46,373
Speaker 2: arms around all of that. And as a consequence of that,

503
00:30:46,613 --> 00:30:50,093
Speaker 2: all year my brain has told me this is Trump's

504
00:30:50,813 --> 00:30:54,373
Speaker 2: election to lose. Could he lose it? Yes? Will you

505
00:30:54,573 --> 00:30:58,293
Speaker 2: lose it. I don't think so. I think probably not. Okay,

506
00:30:58,453 --> 00:31:02,333
Speaker 2: that's where my brain has been. But for since the summer,

507
00:31:03,453 --> 00:31:08,573
Speaker 2: my intuition, my gut has been on a sort of

508
00:31:08,573 --> 00:31:11,613
Speaker 2: of its own. Now, therefore, I sort of when they're

509
00:31:11,613 --> 00:31:13,493
Speaker 2: the same, you know how other people are and how

510
00:31:13,533 --> 00:31:16,293
Speaker 2: you are latent, When you're braking your intuition are in sync,

511
00:31:16,493 --> 00:31:18,573
Speaker 2: you sort of feel confident whatever that is. Even if

512
00:31:18,573 --> 00:31:19,893
Speaker 2: it's bad views do you think at least you can

513
00:31:19,893 --> 00:31:22,573
Speaker 2: face it. But when when they're not quite in sync,

514
00:31:22,613 --> 00:31:26,933
Speaker 2: you start questioning both. But what my intuition has been

515
00:31:26,973 --> 00:31:28,733
Speaker 2: telling me for a couple of months, and I've mentioned

516
00:31:28,733 --> 00:31:32,253
Speaker 2: this to anyone you know unwise enough to ask, is

517
00:31:32,293 --> 00:31:38,333
Speaker 2: that although you can't expect it these days, I've just

518
00:31:38,413 --> 00:31:41,573
Speaker 2: had this nagging feeling that this thing could get blown

519
00:31:41,613 --> 00:31:44,173
Speaker 2: wide open and it could end up being trumped quite

520
00:31:44,213 --> 00:31:45,413
Speaker 2: by quite a big margin.

521
00:31:46,533 --> 00:31:47,453
Speaker 3: Welcome to the club.

522
00:31:47,573 --> 00:31:50,573
Speaker 2: And yeah, and now, of course you know you have

523
00:31:50,613 --> 00:31:53,413
Speaker 2: to check yourself one because I have to sort of

524
00:31:53,813 --> 00:31:56,453
Speaker 2: people ask me to speak to the numbers. But also

525
00:31:56,733 --> 00:31:59,893
Speaker 2: you know, you want's own personal bias and all of that.

526
00:32:00,213 --> 00:32:03,173
Speaker 2: But it's not a not a sense I had a

527
00:32:03,253 --> 00:32:05,693
Speaker 2: year ago or two years ago, before the last election,

528
00:32:05,813 --> 00:32:09,013
Speaker 2: or before the one before that. This just and I'm

529
00:32:09,013 --> 00:32:10,693
Speaker 2: certainly not the first person to think or to say

530
00:32:10,733 --> 00:32:14,173
Speaker 2: this out loud, but the election itself has a lot

531
00:32:14,213 --> 00:32:16,573
Speaker 2: of echoes. For those of us old enough to remember,

532
00:32:16,653 --> 00:32:19,613
Speaker 2: you might be late. And I'm not sure the nineteen

533
00:32:19,653 --> 00:32:25,533
Speaker 2: eighty Carter Reagan race, where all of the kind of

534
00:32:25,893 --> 00:32:32,213
Speaker 2: basic metrics were favored Reagan, but in terms of the

535
00:32:32,533 --> 00:32:36,493
Speaker 2: conventional wisdom and the much faded polls of where they

536
00:32:36,493 --> 00:32:39,853
Speaker 2: were much far fewer then, they never really had him

537
00:32:39,853 --> 00:32:43,653
Speaker 2: in a great position. It was competitive, but Carter was

538
00:32:43,733 --> 00:32:45,373
Speaker 2: up a lot, and then he be up and this

539
00:32:45,453 --> 00:32:48,893
Speaker 2: kind of thing, and then it all broke for Reagan

540
00:32:48,933 --> 00:32:52,133
Speaker 2: at the end. And I think it's less that there

541
00:32:52,173 --> 00:32:54,213
Speaker 2: were specific I mean, Bragan had a great debate and

542
00:32:54,253 --> 00:32:56,053
Speaker 2: things like that, but I think it was less that

543
00:32:56,133 --> 00:32:58,493
Speaker 2: and more that it was always going that way, but

544
00:32:58,573 --> 00:33:01,533
Speaker 2: it was hidden, you know, it was sort of under

545
00:33:01,573 --> 00:33:05,773
Speaker 2: the radar stuff. And Reagan wins up winning by nine

546
00:33:05,773 --> 00:33:07,893
Speaker 2: points in a race that the experts said would be

547
00:33:07,933 --> 00:33:10,453
Speaker 2: one or two points either way, right, And it just

548
00:33:11,053 --> 00:33:14,413
Speaker 2: it feels like that, it has felt like that. But

549
00:33:14,653 --> 00:33:17,293
Speaker 2: you know, every other every day there's another media pole

550
00:33:17,373 --> 00:33:20,493
Speaker 2: saying Kamala is up by two, or this swing state

551
00:33:20,693 --> 00:33:23,373
Speaker 2: is you know, within a decimal point, and all the

552
00:33:23,373 --> 00:33:27,733
Speaker 2: rest of it, and the crazy posters like me, we

553
00:33:27,813 --> 00:33:31,693
Speaker 2: have our results that suggest, you know, it's advantage Trump,

554
00:33:32,653 --> 00:33:35,653
Speaker 2: which i've you know, maintained it is up to this,

555
00:33:35,773 --> 00:33:38,133
Speaker 2: up to this brain minute, and the exit pole, I think,

556
00:33:38,573 --> 00:33:40,853
Speaker 2: you know, gives me more more reason to do that.

557
00:33:40,893 --> 00:33:44,733
Speaker 2: But I'm looking at this exit pole and there's nothing

558
00:33:44,813 --> 00:33:50,093
Speaker 2: in it that screams landslide except for the question. We've

559
00:33:50,133 --> 00:33:53,013
Speaker 2: just been discussing the expected winner, which I found, you know,

560
00:33:53,093 --> 00:33:56,693
Speaker 2: one of the more useful over the years in different contexts.

561
00:33:56,733 --> 00:34:01,573
Speaker 2: So again, you know, if she wins big, I'll have

562
00:34:01,813 --> 00:34:04,973
Speaker 2: missed both both my brain and my intuition will have missed.

563
00:34:05,653 --> 00:34:09,493
Speaker 2: But that's my quasi personal take on the evening. And

564
00:34:09,533 --> 00:34:12,413
Speaker 2: what that means, of course, is that I wouldn't be

565
00:34:12,413 --> 00:34:15,453
Speaker 2: at all surprise surprised, will be shocked, I should say,

566
00:34:15,693 --> 00:34:19,373
Speaker 2: be pleasantly surprised, you know, if he wins these blue

567
00:34:19,413 --> 00:34:23,733
Speaker 2: states like Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota and New Hampshire.

568
00:34:25,133 --> 00:34:28,533
Speaker 2: And that's why, well it is in the American context,

569
00:34:28,933 --> 00:34:32,333
Speaker 2: if it's an absolute blowout. If my intuition is right,

570
00:34:32,933 --> 00:34:36,773
Speaker 2: then we'll know quite early because the Virginia's New Hampshire's

571
00:34:37,213 --> 00:34:41,413
Speaker 2: are on these coast and Virginia's one of the for

572
00:34:41,493 --> 00:34:44,213
Speaker 2: actually Virginia's closing just around now. They'll start doing the

573
00:34:45,813 --> 00:34:49,813
Speaker 2: start doing the early vote counts. But you know, but

574
00:34:49,893 --> 00:34:51,853
Speaker 2: if they go as they tould, as they have gone

575
00:34:51,853 --> 00:34:56,373
Speaker 2: in recent elections, then we'll be waiting for others. But yeah,

576
00:34:56,373 --> 00:35:00,573
Speaker 2: there's just it just feels it feels that way. I mean,

577
00:35:00,613 --> 00:35:04,933
Speaker 2: there's a number of people commenting today, some famous, some

578
00:35:05,093 --> 00:35:07,493
Speaker 2: not famous, who've all been i mean, on the on

579
00:35:07,533 --> 00:35:10,533
Speaker 2: the not the Trump campaign, but they're on the Trump side,

580
00:35:10,813 --> 00:35:13,133
Speaker 2: Trump's side pretty much wishing to win. And they've all

581
00:35:13,173 --> 00:35:15,813
Speaker 2: made the same point, which is, whether they're thirty years

582
00:35:15,853 --> 00:35:18,093
Speaker 2: old or sixty years old, they can't quite remember the

583
00:35:18,173 --> 00:35:21,853
Speaker 2: last time that everything seemed to be lined up for

584
00:35:21,893 --> 00:35:24,773
Speaker 2: the Republican to win, except for the fact half the

585
00:35:24,853 --> 00:35:28,413
Speaker 2: pole say you might lose, you know, So it's I

586
00:35:28,453 --> 00:35:31,093
Speaker 2: think it's on one side of the aisle at least.

587
00:35:31,453 --> 00:35:36,733
Speaker 2: It's a fairly common theme that what one's seeing and

588
00:35:36,813 --> 00:35:39,813
Speaker 2: reading and hearing is from you know, you might say

589
00:35:41,133 --> 00:35:46,253
Speaker 2: official sources doesn't quite gel with the how how it

590
00:35:46,293 --> 00:35:47,053
Speaker 2: all smells? You know?

591
00:35:47,413 --> 00:35:53,093
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just got a message in the top right corner,

592
00:35:54,613 --> 00:35:57,533
Speaker 3: as you do. And all I got all I got

593
00:35:57,533 --> 00:36:00,813
Speaker 3: off it before it disappeared was Trump projected to win

594
00:36:00,973 --> 00:36:04,973
Speaker 3: in Kentucky and great. A couple of others followed. I

595
00:36:05,013 --> 00:36:09,333
Speaker 3: think anyway, I can't exist it. Look, I'm going to

596
00:36:09,413 --> 00:36:11,573
Speaker 3: let you go because I know you have other obligations.

597
00:36:11,613 --> 00:36:14,213
Speaker 3: I have a challenge for you, if there is, if

598
00:36:14,253 --> 00:36:18,573
Speaker 3: there is a good reason, shall we reconvene tomorrow for

599
00:36:18,653 --> 00:36:21,453
Speaker 3: something that's never been done before on this podcast, and

600
00:36:21,493 --> 00:36:23,973
Speaker 3: that is to do a follow up?

601
00:36:24,333 --> 00:36:26,693
Speaker 2: No, absolutely, if there if there is good reason, and

602
00:36:26,773 --> 00:36:27,893
Speaker 2: then we should do that.

603
00:36:28,013 --> 00:36:31,293
Speaker 3: I will be enthusiastic if you if you don't answer

604
00:36:31,373 --> 00:36:33,213
Speaker 3: your phone, I'll know that you didn't agree with me

605
00:36:33,373 --> 00:36:34,173
Speaker 3: on the good reason.

606
00:36:35,453 --> 00:36:38,733
Speaker 2: No, it probably means that I finally I've just involuntarily

607
00:36:38,773 --> 00:36:42,413
Speaker 2: fallen asleep. But I don't know there's much chance of

608
00:36:42,493 --> 00:36:44,213
Speaker 2: that anyway.

609
00:36:44,653 --> 00:36:48,413
Speaker 3: As always, you're most generous. Let you go, and just

610
00:36:48,493 --> 00:36:51,133
Speaker 3: be aware that you are much valued.

611
00:36:51,293 --> 00:36:53,533
Speaker 2: Oh, you're most kindly. Always a pleasure.

612
00:37:04,853 --> 00:37:09,293
Speaker 3: Levericks is an antihistamine made in Switzerland to the highest quality.

613
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614
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615
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616
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617
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619
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621
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622
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623
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Speaker 3: if symptoms persist, see your health professional. Farmer Broker Auckland.

624
00:38:00,653 --> 00:38:06,173
Speaker 3: Nigel Bigar CBE is Regius Professor Emeritus of Moral Theology

625
00:38:06,373 --> 00:38:09,173
Speaker 3: the University of Oxford, is Chairman of the Board of

626
00:38:09,173 --> 00:38:12,773
Speaker 3: the Free Speech Union, one of Prospects magazines twenty five

627
00:38:12,973 --> 00:38:16,853
Speaker 3: Top Thinkers of twenty twenty four, and author of the

628
00:38:16,893 --> 00:38:23,293
Speaker 3: best selling Colonialism, A Moral Reckoning. Out of those four lines,

629
00:38:23,493 --> 00:38:29,693
Speaker 3: I could drive this interview with multiple feed off questions. Nigel,

630
00:38:29,853 --> 00:38:31,733
Speaker 3: great to have you in New Zealand. I've been looking

631
00:38:31,733 --> 00:38:35,453
Speaker 3: forward to your arrival. You are an impressive man, a

632
00:38:35,573 --> 00:38:39,373
Speaker 3: very impressive thinker, and even if one doesn't agree with you,

633
00:38:39,373 --> 00:38:43,333
Speaker 3: you have very persuasive powers. Welcome to the lesiond Welcome

634
00:38:43,333 --> 00:38:43,973
Speaker 3: to the country.

635
00:38:45,173 --> 00:38:47,773
Speaker 4: Glad to be here. I've been in New Zealand for

636
00:38:47,813 --> 00:38:49,173
Speaker 4: about twelve hours and I'm joining it.

637
00:38:49,253 --> 00:38:52,293
Speaker 3: So far terrific. I want to quote you a few

638
00:38:52,333 --> 00:38:56,213
Speaker 3: things and then ask you a question. Following the academic

639
00:38:56,213 --> 00:38:59,493
Speaker 3: freedom report by doctor James Kiersted from the New Zealand

640
00:38:59,533 --> 00:39:04,813
Speaker 3: Initiative shows many experiences of academics self censoring. He was

641
00:39:04,853 --> 00:39:08,293
Speaker 3: even closer than the initiative because he was a prefarre

642
00:39:08,733 --> 00:39:12,533
Speaker 3: lecturer at the university for a number of years. University

643
00:39:12,533 --> 00:39:16,893
Speaker 3: of Auckland's flawed policy on academic freedom took four years

644
00:39:16,933 --> 00:39:21,293
Speaker 3: to draft, only for academics to rightly reject it. Damning

645
00:39:21,373 --> 00:39:25,773
Speaker 3: results at the aut Law Society staff survey and a

646
00:39:25,853 --> 00:39:31,493
Speaker 3: professor's equally damning response Massi University's staff survey results more

647
00:39:31,533 --> 00:39:35,573
Speaker 3: evidence of self censorship at university and finally, for the

648
00:39:35,613 --> 00:39:39,493
Speaker 3: moment at least, back in May, Victoria University three speech

649
00:39:39,533 --> 00:39:45,693
Speaker 3: panel discussion was postponed due to backlash. So there's just one, two, three, four,

650
00:39:45,813 --> 00:39:50,773
Speaker 3: five things that have happened at universities in the very

651
00:39:50,853 --> 00:39:55,653
Speaker 3: recent well in the immediate past. Nigel, simple question. I

652
00:39:55,693 --> 00:39:58,853
Speaker 3: think you grew up in a democracy. I was born

653
00:39:58,853 --> 00:40:01,813
Speaker 3: in a democracy. We've both grown up and we know

654
00:40:01,813 --> 00:40:05,413
Speaker 3: what democracy is all about. What has happened that what

655
00:40:05,453 --> 00:40:08,613
Speaker 3: I've just quoted you is in play at the moment

656
00:40:08,813 --> 00:40:13,973
Speaker 3: in this country, Australia, Britain, America, Canada, all the Anglo

657
00:40:14,053 --> 00:40:16,893
Speaker 3: speaking world. What's happened? How did it get here?

658
00:40:18,013 --> 00:40:21,653
Speaker 4: That's a great and important question, Lathon. Then you're quite right.

659
00:40:22,173 --> 00:40:27,293
Speaker 4: When I first fell into trouble over my views on

660
00:40:27,493 --> 00:40:31,293
Speaker 4: Colonel History in twenty seventeen, I had no idea there

661
00:40:31,293 --> 00:40:34,693
Speaker 4: was a problem. I was accustomed to speaking my mind

662
00:40:35,413 --> 00:40:38,493
Speaker 4: and I try and do so reasonably, but I wasn't

663
00:40:38,533 --> 00:40:42,253
Speaker 4: aware that anyone would try and shut me down. So

664
00:40:42,973 --> 00:40:48,013
Speaker 4: what's happened a number of different things. You certainly have

665
00:40:49,173 --> 00:40:55,133
Speaker 4: the emergence of, I think a minority of very zealous

666
00:40:55,493 --> 00:41:00,613
Speaker 4: progressive folk who have dogmatic views on gender, dogmatic views

667
00:41:00,653 --> 00:41:03,973
Speaker 4: on the extent to which we're racist, and dogmatic views

668
00:41:04,013 --> 00:41:12,373
Speaker 4: on how bad, how relentlessly colonial government was, so you

669
00:41:12,453 --> 00:41:14,893
Speaker 4: have the zealous. Then, as I've discovered, you have a

670
00:41:14,933 --> 00:41:20,213
Speaker 4: majority of people in universities, both students and professors, who

671
00:41:20,613 --> 00:41:23,733
Speaker 4: don't know much about the issues, just want to get

672
00:41:23,773 --> 00:41:28,653
Speaker 4: on with their careers and their lives conflict averse and

673
00:41:28,813 --> 00:41:32,373
Speaker 4: have failed, I think, have failed to understand how much

674
00:41:32,453 --> 00:41:36,453
Speaker 4: is at stake here. And then, most presently of all,

675
00:41:36,493 --> 00:41:41,973
Speaker 4: you've got university administrations run by apparently grown ups who

676
00:41:42,573 --> 00:41:47,293
Speaker 4: twenty years ago would have been quite firm in telling

677
00:41:47,373 --> 00:41:50,813
Speaker 4: let's say, agree to students, we feel your pain, but

678
00:41:50,893 --> 00:41:55,693
Speaker 4: I'm afraid you don't get to evade points of view

679
00:41:55,733 --> 00:41:58,613
Speaker 4: you don't like. And that's changed. And I think it's

680
00:41:58,613 --> 00:42:02,333
Speaker 4: the behavior of institutions and authorities at the top that

681
00:42:02,533 --> 00:42:06,373
Speaker 4: is most decisive and most troubling. Why have they changed

682
00:42:06,373 --> 00:42:10,373
Speaker 4: their behavior, Well, some of them have absorbed and critically

683
00:42:11,133 --> 00:42:14,693
Speaker 4: notions like the only virtue is compassion, the only virtue

684
00:42:14,773 --> 00:42:17,213
Speaker 4: is kindness, and we must do all we can to

685
00:42:17,293 --> 00:42:24,653
Speaker 4: avoid upsetting young people, especially members of supposedly marginalized or

686
00:42:25,853 --> 00:42:30,293
Speaker 4: victimized groups. Historically, so that's that's certain ideas have got

687
00:42:30,293 --> 00:42:34,093
Speaker 4: into the bloodstream of culture, and those who lead us

688
00:42:35,013 --> 00:42:38,253
Speaker 4: have absorbed those ideas. But there's also the fact that

689
00:42:38,373 --> 00:42:44,093
Speaker 4: universities are businesses and highly competitive businesses, and they are

690
00:42:44,573 --> 00:42:48,253
Speaker 4: desperate to retain market share and attract students and to

691
00:42:48,373 --> 00:42:53,413
Speaker 4: keep donors on side. And if they perceive that certain

692
00:42:53,533 --> 00:43:00,373
Speaker 4: views are going to disturb potential customers or disturb potential donors,

693
00:43:00,533 --> 00:43:04,013
Speaker 4: they will quickly clamp down on those ideas. So I

694
00:43:04,053 --> 00:43:06,693
Speaker 4: think it's a number of different factors that have brought

695
00:43:06,773 --> 00:43:10,013
Speaker 4: us here. So there's there are They questioned later was

696
00:43:10,013 --> 00:43:11,973
Speaker 4: a simple one, but the answer is a bit more complicated.

697
00:43:12,533 --> 00:43:15,333
Speaker 3: Well, it needs to be complicated because it seems simple,

698
00:43:15,573 --> 00:43:17,813
Speaker 3: and to get a decent answer, it has to come

699
00:43:17,853 --> 00:43:21,253
Speaker 3: out as you've described it. Now you talk, you talk

700
00:43:21,253 --> 00:43:25,973
Speaker 3: about universities and competition. Does that where does that place

701
00:43:26,173 --> 00:43:29,053
Speaker 3: universities on the free market ticket?

702
00:43:29,533 --> 00:43:31,933
Speaker 4: You know, I'm sixty nine years old later, and so

703
00:43:32,013 --> 00:43:34,573
Speaker 4: when I was to university in the nineteen seventies in Britain,

704
00:43:35,333 --> 00:43:38,453
Speaker 4: I think about twelve percent of every generation at university.

705
00:43:38,453 --> 00:43:41,773
Speaker 4: Then it was very late, but with twelve percent of

706
00:43:41,773 --> 00:43:45,493
Speaker 4: the university of the each co op going to university,

707
00:43:45,933 --> 00:43:50,613
Speaker 4: the States could afford to fund my education. So I

708
00:43:50,613 --> 00:43:52,653
Speaker 4: don't think. I don't think my parents paid much at all.

709
00:43:53,533 --> 00:43:58,733
Speaker 4: But then around before the end of the twentieth century, governments,

710
00:43:59,653 --> 00:44:05,973
Speaker 4: certainly in Britain and elsewhere, decided to expand university sector enormously,

711
00:44:06,013 --> 00:44:09,493
Speaker 4: so that now in Britain it's some between forty and

712
00:44:09,493 --> 00:44:13,813
Speaker 4: fifty percent of every generation goes to university. Well, the

713
00:44:13,853 --> 00:44:17,653
Speaker 4: state couldn't afford to fundel that directly, so they developed

714
00:44:17,653 --> 00:44:23,253
Speaker 4: a business model which partly involves partly involved students paying fees.

715
00:44:24,333 --> 00:44:28,053
Speaker 4: It also involves New Zealand and Australia numbers very well.

716
00:44:28,573 --> 00:44:34,413
Speaker 4: It involves attracting overseas students, not least from China, to

717
00:44:34,453 --> 00:44:37,613
Speaker 4: come to our universities. But the unity depends on overseas

718
00:44:37,613 --> 00:44:41,093
Speaker 4: students heavily, and they certainly depend on student fees. So

719
00:44:41,373 --> 00:44:45,773
Speaker 4: in international rankings of universities, one of the categories is

720
00:44:45,773 --> 00:44:50,613
Speaker 4: now student experience. Now that didn't appear twenty thirty years ago.

721
00:44:51,013 --> 00:44:54,333
Speaker 4: And you know, I'm all for students being aware of

722
00:44:55,133 --> 00:44:59,853
Speaker 4: excuse me, of universities being aware of how students are

723
00:45:00,333 --> 00:45:06,093
Speaker 4: experiencing their university because frankly, during my undergraduate career fifty

724
00:45:06,173 --> 00:45:11,293
Speaker 4: years ago, I wasn't taught very well. Frankly, So universities

725
00:45:11,373 --> 00:45:13,213
Speaker 4: have good reasons as it were, You want to know

726
00:45:13,933 --> 00:45:17,413
Speaker 4: how students are fairing, what the experience is. However, the

727
00:45:17,533 --> 00:45:19,813
Speaker 4: danger is, and I think it's the danger that is

728
00:45:20,533 --> 00:45:26,413
Speaker 4: really has been realized. The danger is you treat students

729
00:45:26,413 --> 00:45:28,293
Speaker 4: like customers and if they're not unhappy, it doesn't matter

730
00:45:28,293 --> 00:45:31,573
Speaker 4: why they're unhappy. They're not happy. That should determine policy.

731
00:45:32,173 --> 00:45:35,213
Speaker 4: That I think is a major distortion, because students, of course,

732
00:45:35,213 --> 00:45:38,453
Speaker 4: can be happy for all sorts of bad reasons. Maybe

733
00:45:38,453 --> 00:45:42,053
Speaker 4: they're lazy, they don't like working. So universites can't take

734
00:45:42,053 --> 00:45:43,733
Speaker 4: that serious, but they do. They do.

735
00:45:44,733 --> 00:45:47,973
Speaker 3: So this is a clip on question. Students think that

736
00:45:47,973 --> 00:45:51,093
Speaker 3: they run the university, so it seems why and how

737
00:45:51,133 --> 00:45:54,213
Speaker 3: did they get that idea. I mean, you've partly sorry,

738
00:45:54,213 --> 00:45:58,093
Speaker 3: you've partly you've partly answered that, but we're taking a

739
00:45:58,133 --> 00:46:01,253
Speaker 3: step further. In my mind, that they come to university

740
00:46:01,373 --> 00:46:03,893
Speaker 3: learn very quickly or be told very quickly by fellow

741
00:46:03,933 --> 00:46:08,173
Speaker 3: students or however else that they they control it or

742
00:46:08,653 --> 00:46:11,613
Speaker 3: control it, and so it goes to their head why

743
00:46:11,613 --> 00:46:12,653
Speaker 3: were they allowed to do that?

744
00:46:13,533 --> 00:46:17,773
Speaker 4: So, yes, universities are businesses. I mean they have to

745
00:46:17,813 --> 00:46:20,893
Speaker 4: make ends meet. We get that, nothing wrong with that,

746
00:46:22,453 --> 00:46:26,853
Speaker 4: but those at the top of the universities. Nevertheless, should

747
00:46:26,933 --> 00:46:30,653
Speaker 4: remember that universities are not primarily there to make a profit.

748
00:46:30,733 --> 00:46:34,973
Speaker 4: They there to survive, but they're there to educate, and

749
00:46:35,893 --> 00:46:41,573
Speaker 4: university leaders should also remember that although not all wisdom

750
00:46:41,613 --> 00:46:44,133
Speaker 4: lies with adults, the fact of the matter is that

751
00:46:44,813 --> 00:46:47,933
Speaker 4: professors and older people usually know a lot more than

752
00:46:47,973 --> 00:46:53,413
Speaker 4: younger people, and therefore they should have the as it were,

753
00:46:53,493 --> 00:46:58,093
Speaker 4: the kind of self confidence, and they should have a

754
00:46:58,173 --> 00:47:02,253
Speaker 4: right conception of what their businesses, which is education, to

755
00:47:02,253 --> 00:47:05,133
Speaker 4: be able to say to students again, we feel your pain,

756
00:47:05,213 --> 00:47:10,053
Speaker 4: we understand you're aggrieved, but actually no, we think you

757
00:47:10,173 --> 00:47:13,933
Speaker 4: require this for your education. You don't get to determine things.

758
00:47:14,093 --> 00:47:16,013
Speaker 4: But I think it's a combination of what I was

759
00:47:16,013 --> 00:47:21,573
Speaker 4: saying before in terms of universities being excessively business like

760
00:47:21,653 --> 00:47:23,773
Speaker 4: and how they can see what they're up to, so

761
00:47:23,813 --> 00:47:26,773
Speaker 4: they are very sensitive, as it were, to market indicators

762
00:47:26,773 --> 00:47:31,173
Speaker 4: of student student dissatisfaction. But there's also I think I

763
00:47:31,253 --> 00:47:34,173
Speaker 4: wonder if there isn't also a kind of cultural change

764
00:47:34,213 --> 00:47:36,973
Speaker 4: here that we're now ruled by those who grew up

765
00:47:37,013 --> 00:47:41,533
Speaker 4: in the nineties sixties, and these are people who are

766
00:47:41,533 --> 00:47:47,013
Speaker 4: afraid of exercising authority. I do remember I held a

767
00:47:47,053 --> 00:47:52,053
Speaker 4: conference in twenty nineteen under the title Academic Freedom under

768
00:47:52,093 --> 00:47:54,733
Speaker 4: Threat what is to be done in Oxford, And the

769
00:47:54,773 --> 00:47:59,293
Speaker 4: observation was made that the people of my generation, who

770
00:47:59,293 --> 00:48:03,773
Speaker 4: grew up or slightly younger than me, we were told

771
00:48:03,773 --> 00:48:06,773
Speaker 4: that authority is a bad thing. So I would not

772
00:48:06,853 --> 00:48:09,253
Speaker 4: be surprised if a lot of those olimans you shoulds

773
00:48:09,413 --> 00:48:12,253
Speaker 4: actually are very uncomfortable about saying no.

774
00:48:13,693 --> 00:48:20,933
Speaker 3: That actually stuns me. You'd think if you grew up

775
00:48:20,933 --> 00:48:23,053
Speaker 3: in the sixties and you had a lifetime of experience

776
00:48:23,093 --> 00:48:25,773
Speaker 3: behind you, buy now you do, you'd have grasped some reality.

777
00:48:27,453 --> 00:48:30,333
Speaker 4: Well, you would have thought so. But that's not the

778
00:48:30,333 --> 00:48:33,573
Speaker 4: way they tend to behave. I mean, I'm just aware

779
00:48:33,693 --> 00:48:36,693
Speaker 4: how in my own universe, even in my own university,

780
00:48:36,773 --> 00:48:39,773
Speaker 4: and Oxford is relatively clear of some of the worst.

781
00:48:40,493 --> 00:48:45,613
Speaker 4: As vice Chancellor send out some circular recently exhorting everyone

782
00:48:45,653 --> 00:48:50,053
Speaker 4: to be kind. I'm all, I'm all favorite of kindness,

783
00:48:51,493 --> 00:48:55,733
Speaker 4: but it ain't the only virtue. And sometimes you don't

784
00:48:55,733 --> 00:48:58,733
Speaker 4: do other people. You don't do them justice, and you

785
00:48:58,773 --> 00:49:03,053
Speaker 4: don't you don't help them always by being kind. Sometimes

786
00:49:03,053 --> 00:49:05,813
Speaker 4: you have to be firm, and they won't experience that,

787
00:49:05,893 --> 00:49:09,253
Speaker 4: they will not experience that as kindness. But but you

788
00:49:09,333 --> 00:49:12,733
Speaker 4: need to serve their welfare, not just their feelings. Because sometimes,

789
00:49:12,773 --> 00:49:15,933
Speaker 4: as I have long said, and as I'm sure lots

790
00:49:15,973 --> 00:49:19,933
Speaker 4: of younger folks here would find incomprehensible, I often say,

791
00:49:20,373 --> 00:49:24,373
Speaker 4: sometimes feelings lie. You can't take them for you can't

792
00:49:24,373 --> 00:49:28,293
Speaker 4: take them as indicators of the truth. And so they

793
00:49:28,373 --> 00:49:29,933
Speaker 4: were grown up, grown ups for the sake of the

794
00:49:29,933 --> 00:49:32,853
Speaker 4: welfare of younger, younger people. Sometimes they say, I know,

795
00:49:32,973 --> 00:49:36,133
Speaker 4: I know how you feel strongly about this, but I'm

796
00:49:36,133 --> 00:49:37,773
Speaker 4: totally sorry. I'm not going to yield.

797
00:49:38,373 --> 00:49:40,853
Speaker 3: I'm sorry. Who did you say? There was the chancellor?

798
00:49:41,293 --> 00:49:42,853
Speaker 4: Well, I think it was that. I don't I don't

799
00:49:42,853 --> 00:49:44,693
Speaker 4: want to get Yeah, it was it was a vice

800
00:49:44,773 --> 00:49:48,293
Speaker 4: chancellor at Oxford. I think who sent out a circular.

801
00:49:50,093 --> 00:49:52,093
Speaker 3: So I'm going to I'm going to leap leap to

802
00:49:52,133 --> 00:49:57,373
Speaker 3: the present. Oxford needs a firebrand chancellor to destroy wokery.

803
00:49:57,773 --> 00:50:00,973
Speaker 3: James Price and James Price in the in the Telegraph,

804
00:50:01,413 --> 00:50:05,973
Speaker 3: and I'll go further where he says. My vote would

805
00:50:05,973 --> 00:50:10,973
Speaker 3: go to Professor Reverend Nigel Biggas, an academic and writer who,

806
00:50:11,053 --> 00:50:14,373
Speaker 3: when dragged into the culture Wars did not apologize meekly,

807
00:50:14,853 --> 00:50:18,573
Speaker 3: but took his place bravely on the intellectual barricades. He

808
00:50:18,653 --> 00:50:21,053
Speaker 3: will be well known to readers of the Telegraph for

809
00:50:21,093 --> 00:50:24,573
Speaker 3: his accounts of the erosion of academic freedom and failures

810
00:50:24,613 --> 00:50:28,053
Speaker 3: to grasp it. Charged with thought crimes, he did not

811
00:50:28,253 --> 00:50:32,373
Speaker 3: commit bigger stood up to the mob, and has provided

812
00:50:32,413 --> 00:50:35,133
Speaker 3: an inspiration for many of us who wished to do

813
00:50:35,293 --> 00:50:37,813
Speaker 3: the same. Like I say, I'm bringing this forward, we'll

814
00:50:37,813 --> 00:50:41,213
Speaker 3: have to take a step back in a moment. You you

815
00:50:41,293 --> 00:50:44,453
Speaker 3: got into this position because of colonialism, the book.

816
00:50:45,533 --> 00:50:47,413
Speaker 4: A nature before that.

817
00:50:48,013 --> 00:50:52,013
Speaker 3: Well, all right, so that the book magnified it. Yeah, certainly,

818
00:50:52,053 --> 00:50:56,973
Speaker 3: okay either way. You you got yourself into into trouble.

819
00:50:57,053 --> 00:51:00,653
Speaker 3: You got yourself for a few problems. What gave what

820
00:51:00,733 --> 00:51:03,573
Speaker 3: gave you the courage to take the stands you did

821
00:51:03,973 --> 00:51:04,653
Speaker 3: and survived.

822
00:51:06,093 --> 00:51:10,373
Speaker 4: Oh that's a that's a great question. I've thought about

823
00:51:10,373 --> 00:51:13,453
Speaker 4: it a lot, because people do say I've been courageous

824
00:51:13,453 --> 00:51:17,493
Speaker 4: and brave, and my heart is warmed by that, and

825
00:51:17,853 --> 00:51:21,053
Speaker 4: I'm encouraged by it, and I hope it's true. But

826
00:51:21,413 --> 00:51:26,813
Speaker 4: I've often thought I feel like decorated soldiers who've been

827
00:51:27,013 --> 00:51:31,173
Speaker 4: courageous on the battlefield who risk their lives to save

828
00:51:31,253 --> 00:51:34,573
Speaker 4: their mates, and I suspect they also feel kind of

829
00:51:35,853 --> 00:51:40,853
Speaker 4: something perplexed because they were just doing their duty. That's

830
00:51:40,853 --> 00:51:43,013
Speaker 4: what they did. They didn't they didn't do it to

831
00:51:43,013 --> 00:51:46,253
Speaker 4: be courageous. And so when I think about, you know,

832
00:51:46,973 --> 00:51:50,893
Speaker 4: what makes me or what makes other people courageous or

833
00:51:50,973 --> 00:51:56,653
Speaker 4: to take risks in doing or saying things, I think

834
00:51:56,773 --> 00:52:01,213
Speaker 4: really late is simply if you care about something enough,

835
00:52:01,693 --> 00:52:03,733
Speaker 4: if you care about enough, if you love it enough,

836
00:52:04,533 --> 00:52:06,533
Speaker 4: then there comes a point where you just can't stand

837
00:52:06,573 --> 00:52:11,493
Speaker 4: by anymore and see it crushed or damaged or defamed,

838
00:52:12,093 --> 00:52:14,533
Speaker 4: and you have to speak up. But I think it's

839
00:52:14,573 --> 00:52:18,893
Speaker 4: a compulsion out of love for something that makes you say,

840
00:52:19,293 --> 00:52:22,533
Speaker 4: bugger it, I don't care what people think. I'm going

841
00:52:22,573 --> 00:52:25,253
Speaker 4: to take this risk. So it's not that you aim

842
00:52:25,333 --> 00:52:27,693
Speaker 4: to be courageous. It knows you aim to be courageous.

843
00:52:27,693 --> 00:52:30,573
Speaker 4: I think it's a matter of saying to yourself, well

844
00:52:30,613 --> 00:52:34,453
Speaker 4: do I care enough to stand by and see this

845
00:52:34,933 --> 00:52:41,173
Speaker 4: precious thing crushed? And some people need to get up

846
00:52:41,213 --> 00:52:45,333
Speaker 4: and stand up. I think also, Frankly Lateten, it's also

847
00:52:45,373 --> 00:52:51,853
Speaker 4: partly personality. I'm Scot's I'm more inclined to be directed

848
00:52:51,853 --> 00:52:56,693
Speaker 4: and blunt than most of my nice, gentle, polite English

849
00:52:57,133 --> 00:53:01,613
Speaker 4: friends and colleagues. I'm more impatient. And also I'm older,

850
00:53:01,653 --> 00:53:04,453
Speaker 4: so I'm sixty nine. At the end of my career,

851
00:53:04,653 --> 00:53:07,413
Speaker 4: I was relatively safe. Other colleagues have suffered much more

852
00:53:07,453 --> 00:53:10,573
Speaker 4: grievous than I. And you know, one thing about older

853
00:53:10,613 --> 00:53:15,933
Speaker 4: age is that it's produced as two things which are

854
00:53:15,933 --> 00:53:18,013
Speaker 4: a dangerous combination. First of all, you finally think that

855
00:53:18,093 --> 00:53:22,053
Speaker 4: what you think, and secondly, you cease to carry what

856
00:53:22,053 --> 00:53:24,093
Speaker 4: other people think so much so you inclined to say

857
00:53:24,093 --> 00:53:29,413
Speaker 4: what you think. And I, although you know I've attracted aggression,

858
00:53:30,813 --> 00:53:32,933
Speaker 4: it wouldn't be anywhere else. So I'm very glad to

859
00:53:32,933 --> 00:53:36,533
Speaker 4: be saying, well, I think, because I think what There's

860
00:53:36,533 --> 00:53:38,173
Speaker 4: some things that are important, and there's some truth that

861
00:53:38,173 --> 00:53:39,973
Speaker 4: are important that I'm glad to say them.

862
00:53:40,213 --> 00:53:42,973
Speaker 3: I can only say, excellent. Want to read you a

863
00:53:43,253 --> 00:53:47,213
Speaker 3: letter to the editor. This is This is purely coincidental.

864
00:53:47,613 --> 00:53:51,493
Speaker 3: It arrived this morning from a friend of mine. You

865
00:53:51,653 --> 00:53:53,493
Speaker 3: took a photo of it and said it to me,

866
00:53:54,173 --> 00:53:58,333
Speaker 3: not knowing that I was talking to you. It's just

867
00:53:58,453 --> 00:54:05,173
Speaker 3: so coincidental. Fears of censure, the concern by doctor Jared Gilbert,

868
00:54:05,533 --> 00:54:08,653
Speaker 3: sociologist at the University of Canterbury, that students don't turn

869
00:54:08,733 --> 00:54:12,893
Speaker 3: up to class but would rather choose to engage remotely

870
00:54:13,013 --> 00:54:16,373
Speaker 3: for courses that are not designed that way. This was

871
00:54:16,413 --> 00:54:19,893
Speaker 3: for an article that appeared on October twenty eighth. Don't

872
00:54:19,933 --> 00:54:24,053
Speaker 3: speak up in class and have become disengaged, claiming that

873
00:54:24,093 --> 00:54:28,373
Speaker 3: they have anxiety issues. They might have missed the boat. Sorry,

874
00:54:28,373 --> 00:54:30,693
Speaker 3: the letter might have missed the boat. Could it be

875
00:54:30,773 --> 00:54:32,933
Speaker 3: that the Could it be that the fault of all

876
00:54:33,013 --> 00:54:36,293
Speaker 3: this lies with the universities themselves and not entirely were

877
00:54:36,333 --> 00:54:39,213
Speaker 3: the students. Many years ago, universities were the bastions of

878
00:54:39,253 --> 00:54:43,293
Speaker 3: free thought, opened discourse and debate from professors to first

879
00:54:43,333 --> 00:54:48,933
Speaker 3: grade to first year undergraduates. However, could the reasons for

880
00:54:48,973 --> 00:54:54,013
Speaker 3: student disengagement outlined by Gilbert be emblematic of the decline

881
00:54:54,013 --> 00:54:57,213
Speaker 3: in our university's commitment to a willingness to protect the

882
00:54:57,293 --> 00:55:00,853
Speaker 3: viewpoints of all engaged in debate even though there is disagreement.

883
00:55:01,253 --> 00:55:03,453
Speaker 3: One example of this was the backlash over the letter

884
00:55:03,493 --> 00:55:07,173
Speaker 3: published by several University of Auckland academics in the Listener

885
00:55:07,253 --> 00:55:09,973
Speaker 3: back in twenty twenty one. You may have heard of this,

886
00:55:10,053 --> 00:55:14,453
Speaker 3: by the way, arguing that Matt oranger Mary is not

887
00:55:14,653 --> 00:55:18,093
Speaker 3: science in the traditional sense. There was a call for

888
00:55:18,133 --> 00:55:21,853
Speaker 3: these academics to be censured. Surely, if academics are going

889
00:55:21,893 --> 00:55:24,893
Speaker 3: to run the risk of being censured at their own university,

890
00:55:25,493 --> 00:55:28,413
Speaker 3: then what hope will ordinary students have in delivering their

891
00:55:28,453 --> 00:55:31,773
Speaker 3: own views on whatever topic they might feel passionate about,

892
00:55:32,293 --> 00:55:37,253
Speaker 3: not because of anxiety, but for the fear of being censured.

893
00:55:38,373 --> 00:55:45,453
Speaker 4: Yep, those are unfortunately not rare phenomena. Later so, I

894
00:55:45,493 --> 00:55:53,733
Speaker 4: think universities have a very very serious civic duty to

895
00:55:53,773 --> 00:55:59,253
Speaker 4: create a forum where all ideas that are lawful are

896
00:55:59,293 --> 00:56:02,933
Speaker 4: allowed to come into play, and where students are trained

897
00:56:04,453 --> 00:56:08,493
Speaker 4: to react to ideas that challenge them more threatns no

898
00:56:08,613 --> 00:56:12,773
Speaker 4: or upset them with strict justice, not to distort them

899
00:56:13,253 --> 00:56:16,093
Speaker 4: in reporting, not to much represent them, not to lie

900
00:56:16,093 --> 00:56:20,293
Speaker 4: about them, and trained to have the courage to think

901
00:56:20,333 --> 00:56:24,173
Speaker 4: about them, to wonder whether actually this strange idea, the

902
00:56:24,213 --> 00:56:26,613
Speaker 4: threatening idea, might be right, or how far it's right.

903
00:56:27,333 --> 00:56:32,653
Speaker 4: But they have a universes have a duty to support

904
00:56:32,693 --> 00:56:35,533
Speaker 4: an environment where all sorts of ideas, some of them

905
00:56:36,093 --> 00:56:39,453
Speaker 4: are no doubt challenging, come into play, and with students

906
00:56:39,533 --> 00:56:44,493
Speaker 4: are trained in the virtues necessary for us to have

907
00:56:44,533 --> 00:56:46,973
Speaker 4: a liberal society, because if universities failed to do that,

908
00:56:48,093 --> 00:56:50,733
Speaker 4: our public life and a political life is going to

909
00:56:50,773 --> 00:56:53,533
Speaker 4: suffer in the way it now is, where people tend

910
00:56:53,573 --> 00:56:57,573
Speaker 4: to shout and scream and and appeal to emotion, and

911
00:56:57,613 --> 00:57:00,853
Speaker 4: they don't know how to deal with perfectly reasonable ideas.

912
00:57:00,893 --> 00:57:04,853
Speaker 4: And what you've just described these New Zealand academics as

913
00:57:04,933 --> 00:57:11,973
Speaker 4: saying about the difference between certain traditional Maori stories and

914
00:57:12,213 --> 00:57:15,733
Speaker 4: natural science, for example, that's a perfectly sensible point to make.

915
00:57:16,453 --> 00:57:18,333
Speaker 4: They should be allowed to say that, and students should

916
00:57:18,373 --> 00:57:22,413
Speaker 4: be required, frankly required to deal with these things in

917
00:57:22,453 --> 00:57:24,813
Speaker 4: a rational manner, and that does require the self for

918
00:57:24,853 --> 00:57:28,333
Speaker 4: strange of emotion. And too many universities, not all of them,

919
00:57:28,333 --> 00:57:32,413
Speaker 4: too many universities are completely oblivious to that duty. That

920
00:57:32,453 --> 00:57:34,893
Speaker 4: they're behaving, as it were, simply as businesses. They've forgotten

921
00:57:34,893 --> 00:57:39,773
Speaker 4: what their main purpose is. But so I agree, I

922
00:57:39,773 --> 00:57:43,133
Speaker 4: think universities have a lot to do it. Also, I mean,

923
00:57:43,173 --> 00:57:47,533
Speaker 4: I think it is said that mental health issues are

924
00:57:47,573 --> 00:57:52,933
Speaker 4: a growing problem among students, and of course what I

925
00:57:52,973 --> 00:57:55,493
Speaker 4: would what I would have called what I still call

926
00:57:55,973 --> 00:58:00,893
Speaker 4: distress or even mild depression is now now trauma. I

927
00:58:00,933 --> 00:58:03,733
Speaker 4: regard distress and depression as a normal, normal feature of life,

928
00:58:03,773 --> 00:58:06,093
Speaker 4: and I think it's not helping kids if they are

929
00:58:06,213 --> 00:58:10,013
Speaker 4: told that. But I'm also told that living life on

930
00:58:10,533 --> 00:58:14,773
Speaker 4: social media does create lots of anxiety in Eurosis, and

931
00:58:14,773 --> 00:58:18,093
Speaker 4: that may be a new phenomenon, in which case, when

932
00:58:18,093 --> 00:58:22,093
Speaker 4: presented with kids who are really distressed at ideas that

933
00:58:22,133 --> 00:58:26,093
Speaker 4: they find disturbing, universities need to treat this as a

934
00:58:26,133 --> 00:58:32,613
Speaker 4: partial therapeutic problem, not allowing students to proceed without having

935
00:58:32,653 --> 00:58:35,533
Speaker 4: different fund ideas they don't like, but helping students to

936
00:58:35,573 --> 00:58:40,133
Speaker 4: acquire resilience in coping with ideas they don't like. Whereas

937
00:58:40,173 --> 00:58:42,333
Speaker 4: I think the tendency is to take the easy option

938
00:58:42,733 --> 00:58:48,773
Speaker 4: of simply allowing students to shield themselves from find things

939
00:58:48,773 --> 00:58:49,813
Speaker 4: they find distressing.

940
00:58:50,533 --> 00:58:55,213
Speaker 3: All right, So resilience is one of the most important

941
00:58:55,253 --> 00:58:58,573
Speaker 3: aspects of life, particularly when you're growing up.

942
00:58:59,373 --> 00:58:59,613
Speaker 4: Yep.

943
00:59:00,253 --> 00:59:04,653
Speaker 3: So let's just verbally draw up a short list of

944
00:59:04,693 --> 00:59:09,093
Speaker 3: things that might have might have gone wrong one way

945
00:59:09,173 --> 00:59:12,213
Speaker 3: or another that have allowed kids to grow up and

946
00:59:12,653 --> 00:59:17,333
Speaker 3: find themselves in this position, not understanding why it's happened

947
00:59:17,373 --> 00:59:20,173
Speaker 3: and what they can do about it. The collapse of

948
00:59:20,173 --> 00:59:23,173
Speaker 3: marriage is my first option, is my first offer. The

949
00:59:23,213 --> 00:59:28,453
Speaker 3: collapse of marriage, the lack of father's same category, pulling

950
00:59:28,453 --> 00:59:31,653
Speaker 3: the rug on kids at achievement. One of one of

951
00:59:31,653 --> 00:59:34,773
Speaker 3: my sons, for instance, was at a school where he

952
00:59:34,853 --> 00:59:41,253
Speaker 3: had he had three chances to submit answers to an exam. Yes,

953
00:59:41,413 --> 00:59:44,813
Speaker 3: after it was over, he did. They all did. So

954
00:59:44,893 --> 00:59:47,293
Speaker 3: there's no there was no pressure, there's no drive as

955
00:59:47,333 --> 00:59:49,893
Speaker 3: far as that's concerned. What would you what would you

956
00:59:49,893 --> 00:59:51,373
Speaker 3: add to that shortlist so far?

957
00:59:52,573 --> 00:59:56,813
Speaker 4: Is it? Comment on that last point? Late? And yes,

958
00:59:56,933 --> 01:00:00,853
Speaker 4: I in my own university one hears of all sorts

959
01:00:00,933 --> 01:00:04,413
Speaker 4: of special measures being taken to allow students of suffering

960
01:00:04,453 --> 01:00:09,493
Speaker 4: anxiety to to take exams, to retake exam because of

961
01:00:09,533 --> 01:00:13,813
Speaker 4: course failing is distressing. I fail. I fail quite badly.

962
01:00:14,293 --> 01:00:15,013
Speaker 4: At university.

963
01:00:15,093 --> 01:00:19,133
Speaker 3: We have something in common, Well, we both.

964
01:00:19,053 --> 01:00:22,693
Speaker 4: Learned there's there's life after failure. But that's but that's

965
01:00:22,933 --> 01:00:26,653
Speaker 4: the point, isn't it That it's not doing students a service.

966
01:00:26,973 --> 01:00:29,533
Speaker 4: It's not being kind to them to pretend that the

967
01:00:29,573 --> 01:00:32,373
Speaker 4: outside world is going to forgive them all the time,

968
01:00:32,613 --> 01:00:37,133
Speaker 4: or as it will ignore their failure. The outside world

969
01:00:37,173 --> 01:00:41,253
Speaker 4: is going to be very harsh so so universities and

970
01:00:41,453 --> 01:00:47,773
Speaker 4: parents need to get kinder to their kids in explaining

971
01:00:47,813 --> 01:00:51,213
Speaker 4: to them that actually failure is a pretty normal part

972
01:00:51,213 --> 01:00:54,533
Speaker 4: of human life. One needs to learn to fail and

973
01:00:54,573 --> 01:00:56,533
Speaker 4: then to get them off the ground and try again.

974
01:00:56,653 --> 01:00:59,813
Speaker 4: That's that's called resilience. But but I fear that's not

975
01:00:59,893 --> 01:01:03,853
Speaker 4: what's happening, and students are being indulged in a way

976
01:01:03,853 --> 01:01:06,293
Speaker 4: that is actually doing them harm and the adults are

977
01:01:06,293 --> 01:01:07,053
Speaker 4: responsible for that.

978
01:01:07,893 --> 01:01:10,253
Speaker 3: Let's say the attack on masculinity.

979
01:01:11,333 --> 01:01:15,373
Speaker 4: Yes, help help me there, well, the attack.

980
01:01:15,093 --> 01:01:19,453
Speaker 3: On masculinity that the boys, for instance, are not allowed

981
01:01:19,493 --> 01:01:22,653
Speaker 3: to show masculine tendencies when they're at school, when they're

982
01:01:23,533 --> 01:01:27,253
Speaker 3: when they're when they're growing up. Attitudes are part of

983
01:01:27,413 --> 01:01:31,693
Speaker 3: the physical part of life is another part, yes, and

984
01:01:31,733 --> 01:01:34,573
Speaker 3: not having a not having a shall we say, a

985
01:01:34,613 --> 01:01:36,853
Speaker 3: guide through life in the form of a man in

986
01:01:37,293 --> 01:01:39,973
Speaker 3: the family contributes even more.

987
01:01:40,933 --> 01:01:41,093
Speaker 2: Yeah.

988
01:01:41,213 --> 01:01:46,293
Speaker 4: Of course, masculinity and feminity are kind of ideal types

989
01:01:46,333 --> 01:01:49,973
Speaker 4: of behavior. So so to be masculin is to be strong.

990
01:01:50,293 --> 01:01:55,253
Speaker 4: It's to be willing to to to fight, to be

991
01:01:55,293 --> 01:02:02,373
Speaker 4: in conflict, to have resilience and courage. Strength, femininity the

992
01:02:02,453 --> 01:02:05,813
Speaker 4: ideal is no, it's it's not about fightings, about reconciliations,

993
01:02:05,813 --> 01:02:09,853
Speaker 4: about relationships, it's about being kind of it. My view

994
01:02:09,933 --> 01:02:14,173
Speaker 4: is that all human beings should, in different situations, be

995
01:02:14,373 --> 01:02:17,853
Speaker 4: masculine and feminine. I have heard and this is plausible,

996
01:02:17,893 --> 01:02:22,093
Speaker 4: I don't know what the empirical substantiation of it is.

997
01:02:22,573 --> 01:02:25,493
Speaker 4: Part of the problem in universities and elsewhere is the

998
01:02:25,533 --> 01:02:29,893
Speaker 4: feminization institutions often run by women. I've not plain against that,

999
01:02:30,533 --> 01:02:34,133
Speaker 4: but if it's true that women tend to focus on

1000
01:02:34,933 --> 01:02:40,733
Speaker 4: reconciliation and conflict with avoidance and kindness and compassion, if

1001
01:02:40,893 --> 01:02:45,213
Speaker 4: women are too feminine, not not masculine enough, then that

1002
01:02:45,373 --> 01:02:49,733
Speaker 4: is certainly contributed to our problem. Because what we need,

1003
01:02:49,813 --> 01:02:54,053
Speaker 4: is particularly in university, is also in schools. We need

1004
01:02:54,093 --> 01:03:00,013
Speaker 4: our young people taught how to manage conflict responsibly because

1005
01:03:00,453 --> 01:03:02,173
Speaker 4: when they go into life, they're not going to be

1006
01:03:02,213 --> 01:03:04,733
Speaker 4: able to avoid conflict. So the question is how do

1007
01:03:04,773 --> 01:03:07,493
Speaker 4: you manage it responsibly? And if you avoid it, If

1008
01:03:07,493 --> 01:03:10,693
Speaker 4: you will kids to avoid it all the time and

1009
01:03:10,853 --> 01:03:16,613
Speaker 4: not to grow the virtues of patients and resilience and

1010
01:03:16,693 --> 01:03:20,693
Speaker 4: self restraint, then they're going to mismanaged conflict. And when

1011
01:03:20,693 --> 01:03:23,413
Speaker 4: they grew up to run institutions, we're all going to.

1012
01:03:23,333 --> 01:03:27,453
Speaker 3: Suffer the Higher Education Freedom of Speech Build twenty twenty one,

1013
01:03:27,533 --> 01:03:31,253
Speaker 3: but that you had a big hand in. You made

1014
01:03:31,413 --> 01:03:35,493
Speaker 3: a you made a submission to the Public Bills Committee. Yes,

1015
01:03:35,733 --> 01:03:38,973
Speaker 3: and I've read it and I've read it and its outstanding,

1016
01:03:40,133 --> 01:03:43,733
Speaker 3: and it got if I'm not mistaken, it got passed.

1017
01:03:44,653 --> 01:03:46,893
Speaker 4: The bill was passed. Yeah, it was in active last year.

1018
01:03:47,093 --> 01:03:50,613
Speaker 3: Yes, and then it didn't. One day it was coming

1019
01:03:50,613 --> 01:03:53,053
Speaker 3: into fourth and the next day it wasn't.

1020
01:03:53,053 --> 01:03:58,133
Speaker 4: What happened change your government, the new Labor government of

1021
01:03:58,213 --> 01:04:06,533
Speaker 4: kas Darma I and my allies in shaping and promoting

1022
01:04:06,573 --> 01:04:10,813
Speaker 4: the hid K Should Be Speech Bill, which was an

1023
01:04:10,813 --> 01:04:14,093
Speaker 4: active in May last year. We wondered before the election

1024
01:04:14,213 --> 01:04:18,373
Speaker 4: whether a new Labor government would try and pull it

1025
01:04:18,573 --> 01:04:22,013
Speaker 4: or qualified or damage it or whatever. And there's no

1026
01:04:22,013 --> 01:04:25,333
Speaker 4: sign at all, none at all, that they were interested

1027
01:04:25,373 --> 01:04:28,733
Speaker 4: in changing what we put in position. But no sooner

1028
01:04:28,733 --> 01:04:31,333
Speaker 4: had the government been elected at the Secretary of State

1029
01:04:31,373 --> 01:04:34,253
Speaker 4: for Education Bridge At Phillipson, announced that she was going

1030
01:04:34,293 --> 01:04:41,493
Speaker 4: to suspend the operation of the Act and perhaps repeal it. Now,

1031
01:04:41,853 --> 01:04:46,613
Speaker 4: why did you do that? Well, someone from within government,

1032
01:04:47,453 --> 01:04:52,533
Speaker 4: a reliable source, i'm told, reported that vice chancellors had

1033
01:04:52,613 --> 01:05:00,293
Speaker 4: lent on the then Shadow Secretary of State because the

1034
01:05:00,893 --> 01:05:07,213
Speaker 4: Act would have required universities to make transparent their dependents,

1035
01:05:07,773 --> 01:05:12,853
Speaker 4: their dependent on foreign that is Chinese funding, and the

1036
01:05:13,173 --> 01:05:15,453
Speaker 4: advice chancellors did not want to have to be transparent

1037
01:05:15,493 --> 01:05:17,893
Speaker 4: about that, which is why they lent on the Secretary

1038
01:05:17,893 --> 01:05:20,773
Speaker 4: of State. That's not why the Secretary of State stay

1039
01:05:20,893 --> 01:05:25,413
Speaker 4: she wants to pause it or to repeal it. But

1040
01:05:25,493 --> 01:05:27,733
Speaker 4: we're told actually that is why the buds vice chances

1041
01:05:27,733 --> 01:05:30,053
Speaker 4: that have lent on her. So, yes, the Act is

1042
01:05:30,093 --> 01:05:35,333
Speaker 4: currently paused because we have a Free Speech Union in

1043
01:05:35,373 --> 01:05:39,333
Speaker 4: Britain now founded four years ago, now extremely healthy, twenty

1044
01:05:39,373 --> 01:05:44,133
Speaker 4: thousand members, an annual income from subscriptions alone of about

1045
01:05:44,133 --> 01:05:48,613
Speaker 4: a million pounds plus donations. Because we have an FSQ

1046
01:05:48,773 --> 01:05:54,933
Speaker 4: with a staff and a full time legal mind working

1047
01:05:54,973 --> 01:06:00,493
Speaker 4: on cases, the FSU has applied to take the government

1048
01:06:00,573 --> 01:06:03,893
Speaker 4: to court by means of judicial review. So there's bad

1049
01:06:03,933 --> 01:06:08,213
Speaker 4: news that Laton. Yes, the government appears to want to

1050
01:06:08,333 --> 01:06:12,093
Speaker 4: who perhaps repeal the Act. The good news is we

1051
01:06:12,133 --> 01:06:15,573
Speaker 4: now have an institution in Britain sufficiently powerful and well

1052
01:06:15,613 --> 01:06:19,933
Speaker 4: resourced to challenge that and to embarrass the government. In

1053
01:06:19,973 --> 01:06:21,253
Speaker 4: the pages of the press.

1054
01:06:21,853 --> 01:06:25,573
Speaker 3: Concern about threats to free speech and research in universities

1055
01:06:25,613 --> 01:06:32,333
Speaker 3: is sometimes dismissed as a manufactured distraction. Can I suggest

1056
01:06:32,413 --> 01:06:37,613
Speaker 3: that that is a very purposed claim to allow them

1057
01:06:37,733 --> 01:06:40,613
Speaker 3: to continue with what they want to achieve.

1058
01:06:42,253 --> 01:06:45,733
Speaker 4: Oh yes, later, every time I hear that, my blood

1059
01:06:45,733 --> 01:06:50,373
Speaker 4: pressure starts to rise. Because it's the leaders of most

1060
01:06:50,413 --> 01:06:57,293
Speaker 4: of our universities in Britain, throughout four years of press

1061
01:06:57,333 --> 01:07:03,013
Speaker 4: coverage or free speech in universities, have consistently said, there

1062
01:07:03,053 --> 01:07:06,253
Speaker 4: is no problem. The problem is limited to a small

1063
01:07:06,333 --> 01:07:09,733
Speaker 4: handful of cancelation of events and we're all committed to

1064
01:07:09,733 --> 01:07:14,533
Speaker 4: free speech. That's what they say. I will point out

1065
01:07:14,613 --> 01:07:21,853
Speaker 4: that although I probably was the first the first person

1066
01:07:23,853 --> 01:07:27,853
Speaker 4: to hit the pages of the press in twenty seventeen

1067
01:07:28,893 --> 01:07:35,453
Speaker 4: because an attempted to be maze to constrain my academic freedom,

1068
01:07:35,773 --> 01:07:39,573
Speaker 4: and it was in the pressook for weeks and so

1069
01:07:39,613 --> 01:07:42,813
Speaker 4: all of my most people in Oxford and in the

1070
01:07:43,013 --> 01:07:48,173
Speaker 4: university university administration who are conscious will know who I

1071
01:07:48,213 --> 01:07:51,573
Speaker 4: am and what happened to me. Nobody in the administration

1072
01:07:51,693 --> 01:07:54,013
Speaker 4: oxyd University has ever asked me to come in and

1073
01:07:54,013 --> 01:07:57,333
Speaker 4: talk to them of what's going on. Apart from that,

1074
01:07:57,453 --> 01:08:02,413
Speaker 4: you've got people like Kathleen Starkey, lesbian, a gender critical

1075
01:08:02,973 --> 01:08:08,173
Speaker 4: feminist philosopher. If you ever hear her speech, she's on YouTube.

1076
01:08:08,373 --> 01:08:10,973
Speaker 4: She is a model of reason, the model of reason.

1077
01:08:11,773 --> 01:08:13,853
Speaker 4: She was driven out of her job in her career

1078
01:08:13,893 --> 01:08:17,333
Speaker 4: at the University of Sussex a few years ago by

1079
01:08:17,533 --> 01:08:24,133
Speaker 4: campaign carried out by students are betted by fellow academics,

1080
01:08:24,693 --> 01:08:27,173
Speaker 4: and the university authorities allowed it to happen. She was

1081
01:08:27,253 --> 01:08:30,293
Speaker 4: driven out of a job. So I get really quite

1082
01:08:30,293 --> 01:08:32,973
Speaker 4: angry when I had universities an others say this is

1083
01:08:33,013 --> 01:08:36,253
Speaker 4: not a problem, because it is to say that you

1084
01:08:36,333 --> 01:08:40,733
Speaker 4: simply have to willfully ignore ample evidence of their being

1085
01:08:40,853 --> 01:08:44,573
Speaker 4: a problem. And if anyone's in any doubt, go and

1086
01:08:44,573 --> 01:08:46,893
Speaker 4: look at the website of the Free Speech Union in

1087
01:08:46,933 --> 01:08:49,693
Speaker 4: the UK. There are plenty of cases of people, not

1088
01:08:49,773 --> 01:08:52,733
Speaker 4: just universities but in other walks of life whose free

1089
01:08:52,733 --> 01:08:57,813
Speaker 4: speech and academic and freedom of thought is being constrained,

1090
01:08:57,813 --> 01:08:59,413
Speaker 4: and lawfully in many.

1091
01:08:59,173 --> 01:09:02,773
Speaker 3: Cases, I quite for the very beginning again. And in

1092
01:09:02,853 --> 01:09:06,533
Speaker 3: their June submission to the Times Education Commission, Tony Blair

1093
01:09:06,573 --> 01:09:11,853
Speaker 3: and Andrew o'donnis wrote that the Higher Education Freedom of

1094
01:09:11,893 --> 01:09:15,693
Speaker 3: Speech Bill is now making its way through Parliament is

1095
01:09:15,733 --> 01:09:19,293
Speaker 3: a reform in search of a problem. Since free speech

1096
01:09:19,373 --> 01:09:23,333
Speaker 3: is hardly a key issue on university campuses, Tony Blair

1097
01:09:23,933 --> 01:09:26,533
Speaker 3: lives up to his reputation or down to it? Should

1098
01:09:26,533 --> 01:09:28,413
Speaker 3: I say?

1099
01:09:28,893 --> 01:09:32,013
Speaker 4: Well? Actually, like and I used to hold a candle

1100
01:09:32,013 --> 01:09:35,853
Speaker 4: for Tony Blair and didn't hold a candle for Andrew

1101
01:09:35,893 --> 01:09:39,493
Speaker 4: Dunnas And the best I can say is that there

1102
01:09:39,613 --> 01:09:43,493
Speaker 4: is an ignorant statement, and given the available evidence, it

1103
01:09:43,573 --> 01:09:47,013
Speaker 4: is a willfully ignorant statement. And they should know better.

1104
01:09:47,413 --> 01:09:48,573
Speaker 3: Well, I'm sure they do.

1105
01:09:51,253 --> 01:09:55,173
Speaker 4: Well that case through more vulnerable, right, because there's a

1106
01:09:55,213 --> 01:10:01,533
Speaker 4: serious problem because, as I interimitted before, we need we

1107
01:10:01,573 --> 01:10:04,213
Speaker 4: need a liberal society which we all thought we heard

1108
01:10:04,333 --> 01:10:08,853
Speaker 4: until ten years ago, where all lawful ide years get

1109
01:10:08,893 --> 01:10:12,733
Speaker 4: to be expressed. And that means where we're raining orthodoxies

1110
01:10:13,693 --> 01:10:18,653
Speaker 4: whenever they are but orthodoxies with regard to gender self recognition.

1111
01:10:18,973 --> 01:10:24,053
Speaker 4: Orthodoxy is about about our societies being systemically racist. Orthodox

1112
01:10:24,173 --> 01:10:27,013
Speaker 4: is about that all ourcalgal history is nothing but a

1113
01:10:27,093 --> 01:10:32,093
Speaker 4: literary of racism and oppression. Those orthodoxies need testing, they

1114
01:10:32,133 --> 01:10:34,853
Speaker 4: need challenging. I think every one of them is actually false,

1115
01:10:35,733 --> 01:10:39,293
Speaker 4: but they are. They are determining a government policy. They're

1116
01:10:39,293 --> 01:10:43,733
Speaker 4: determine determining curriculating schools. And they're false, and we need

1117
01:10:43,733 --> 01:10:46,853
Speaker 4: a society which is able to test them and to

1118
01:10:46,973 --> 01:10:49,813
Speaker 4: expose how far they're false and how far they're true.

1119
01:10:50,693 --> 01:10:55,293
Speaker 4: And universities have an enormously important civic duty to perform

1120
01:10:55,893 --> 01:11:00,573
Speaker 4: in helping to shape as I said before, so they're

1121
01:11:00,613 --> 01:11:05,213
Speaker 4: capable of having liberal discussions. And governments have an enormously

1122
01:11:06,493 --> 01:11:10,173
Speaker 4: an enormous civic duty to make sure we have spaces

1123
01:11:10,213 --> 01:11:14,573
Speaker 4: where which are probably liberal. And all sorts of institutions

1124
01:11:14,773 --> 01:11:17,733
Speaker 4: and sometimes governments are failing, and the future of liberal

1125
01:11:17,733 --> 01:11:22,213
Speaker 4: society among us is therefore jeopardized. And it's really really important.

1126
01:11:22,253 --> 01:11:24,453
Speaker 4: So all those people who were trying to get on

1127
01:11:24,533 --> 01:11:26,573
Speaker 4: with their lives and hoping there's no problem that they

1128
01:11:26,573 --> 01:11:29,253
Speaker 4: had to deal with here and they can just keep

1129
01:11:29,253 --> 01:11:32,373
Speaker 4: their heads under the parapet. If you want a liberal society,

1130
01:11:32,573 --> 01:11:34,613
Speaker 4: you need to stand up, because otherwise we're going to

1131
01:11:34,653 --> 01:11:34,933
Speaker 4: lose it.

1132
01:11:35,853 --> 01:11:39,133
Speaker 3: So we've got universities. Now we've talked about them right

1133
01:11:39,133 --> 01:11:43,413
Speaker 3: from the beginning, but you've got students arriving at universities

1134
01:11:43,453 --> 01:11:47,693
Speaker 3: where I constantly hear it's a regular thing that they

1135
01:11:47,773 --> 01:11:50,293
Speaker 3: arrive at university and they can't even construct a sentence.

1136
01:11:51,093 --> 01:11:53,493
Speaker 3: They can't analyze anything, they don't know what they're doing.

1137
01:11:54,493 --> 01:11:59,373
Speaker 3: So who's is that the result of the backwash from

1138
01:11:59,493 --> 01:12:04,133
Speaker 3: universities or is it providing the problem for universities.

1139
01:12:06,093 --> 01:12:08,813
Speaker 4: Well, it's probably listening again to do with this massive

1140
01:12:08,813 --> 01:12:13,533
Speaker 4: expansion of higher education in the nineties and early noughties.

1141
01:12:14,533 --> 01:12:17,733
Speaker 4: So so in Britain we you know, universities used to

1142
01:12:17,813 --> 01:12:21,893
Speaker 4: be research universities then we we we I think Margaret

1143
01:12:21,933 --> 01:12:25,853
Speaker 4: Thatcher actually her government decided to upgrade the status of

1144
01:12:25,933 --> 01:12:32,293
Speaker 4: what were polytechnics into universities. Polytechnics traditionally were about vocational education,

1145
01:12:32,453 --> 01:12:36,533
Speaker 4: which is very important, very important indeed, But that that

1146
01:12:36,573 --> 01:12:40,733
Speaker 4: meant that some some polytechnics decided to stop doing vocational

1147
01:12:40,853 --> 01:12:45,893
Speaker 4: education and to try and rival universities in academic research

1148
01:12:45,933 --> 01:12:50,653
Speaker 4: and teaching. And it also means that there are some

1149
01:12:50,773 --> 01:12:57,133
Speaker 4: of the weaker polytechnics who you know, as businesses, they

1150
01:12:57,173 --> 01:13:01,093
Speaker 4: want to attract students, but their admissions criteria pretty low.

1151
01:13:03,293 --> 01:13:06,693
Speaker 4: And it does mean therefore that kids are being sent

1152
01:13:06,733 --> 01:13:11,653
Speaker 4: to university who twenty years ago would not have gone

1153
01:13:11,653 --> 01:13:15,333
Speaker 4: to university simply because they're not prepared for it. Actually

1154
01:13:15,533 --> 01:13:18,493
Speaker 4: they have no attitude for it. They're much better off

1155
01:13:19,293 --> 01:13:23,013
Speaker 4: going to learn a vocational skills, so they become plumbers

1156
01:13:23,013 --> 01:13:27,133
Speaker 4: and whatever, because we need you know, we will never

1157
01:13:27,173 --> 01:13:30,413
Speaker 4: cease to need people with manual skills or artisanal skills,

1158
01:13:30,853 --> 01:13:34,413
Speaker 4: vacational skills. And I mean I've heard talks certainly in

1159
01:13:34,413 --> 01:13:39,053
Speaker 4: Britain in recent years that maybe was a mistake, particularly

1160
01:13:39,093 --> 01:13:42,133
Speaker 4: under the Blair government, to take an arbitrary figure of

1161
01:13:42,133 --> 01:13:44,893
Speaker 4: forty or fifty percent of the population to serve the

1162
01:13:44,973 --> 01:13:49,973
Speaker 4: knowledge economy, because actually that has led to a decline

1163
01:13:50,093 --> 01:13:55,253
Speaker 4: in the standards of some universities, because otherwise some kids

1164
01:13:55,253 --> 01:13:57,373
Speaker 4: simply couldn't cope if they were subjected to a more

1165
01:13:57,373 --> 01:14:00,133
Speaker 4: reduced standards. So there has been a decline in standards.

1166
01:14:01,453 --> 01:14:03,733
Speaker 4: And then going back to an earlier point we made

1167
01:14:03,773 --> 01:14:08,453
Speaker 4: about concessions made to students stuff from various kinds of

1168
01:14:08,533 --> 01:14:12,773
Speaker 4: mental and health. It makes it easier for them. And

1169
01:14:12,813 --> 01:14:16,293
Speaker 4: then also there is the issue of grade inflation in

1170
01:14:17,133 --> 01:14:21,533
Speaker 4: earlier years. For four decades ago, the number of students

1171
01:14:21,573 --> 01:14:26,293
Speaker 4: getting first class degrees was small ten percent. Maybe it's

1172
01:14:26,333 --> 01:14:29,493
Speaker 4: now thirty percent, and that I think is partly because

1173
01:14:29,533 --> 01:14:34,013
Speaker 4: of as a market competition, because you know, you want

1174
01:14:34,013 --> 01:14:38,333
Speaker 4: to attract good students to university. Well, if you're a

1175
01:14:38,493 --> 01:14:41,493
Speaker 4: university that gives first class de reason out generously, then

1176
01:14:41,493 --> 01:14:43,653
Speaker 4: that's one reason why student might choose to go with you.

1177
01:14:43,933 --> 01:14:45,933
Speaker 4: But of course it means that standards are being lowered

1178
01:14:47,013 --> 01:14:50,613
Speaker 4: for market reasons, and so you know, if there's are

1179
01:14:50,693 --> 01:14:53,853
Speaker 4: undermining their own credibility in this.

1180
01:14:53,853 --> 01:14:58,773
Speaker 3: Way, how much do you indulge in politics? Oh, publicly

1181
01:14:58,933 --> 01:14:59,493
Speaker 3: or privately.

1182
01:15:01,373 --> 01:15:04,853
Speaker 4: I'm now out of myself as a conservative, so I

1183
01:15:04,893 --> 01:15:06,973
Speaker 4: do politics at.

1184
01:15:06,853 --> 01:15:10,813
Speaker 3: This point of time. And by the time we are

1185
01:15:10,893 --> 01:15:16,973
Speaker 3: released with this podcast, they'll be counting votes. What's your

1186
01:15:17,013 --> 01:15:22,613
Speaker 3: thought on the American elect presidential election. I'm not even

1187
01:15:22,693 --> 01:15:24,493
Speaker 3: really asking you who do you think is going to win,

1188
01:15:24,693 --> 01:15:28,853
Speaker 3: because that's a question most people are trying to avoid.

1189
01:15:29,453 --> 01:15:34,533
Speaker 3: I'm just I'm wondering, if you accept the complaint of

1190
01:15:34,773 --> 01:15:39,013
Speaker 3: how could a country, a nation as big as three

1191
01:15:39,093 --> 01:15:45,093
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty million people, produce two candidates of such inferiority.

1192
01:15:46,413 --> 01:15:51,053
Speaker 3: That was before Biden resigned, and it's now applicable to

1193
01:15:51,093 --> 01:15:54,053
Speaker 3: his replacement. Now I'm not saying that's what I believe,

1194
01:15:54,133 --> 01:15:56,933
Speaker 3: but that's what that's the quote, and I'm wondering what

1195
01:15:57,013 --> 01:15:57,693
Speaker 3: your response is.

1196
01:16:00,813 --> 01:16:05,773
Speaker 4: Well, if the complained is about the quality of front

1197
01:16:05,853 --> 01:16:09,453
Speaker 4: rank politicians. Then there's not just an American problem. I

1198
01:16:09,453 --> 01:16:13,653
Speaker 4: think we have a general problem in the democratic world

1199
01:16:13,893 --> 01:16:16,253
Speaker 4: that the best people are not going to politics, and

1200
01:16:16,933 --> 01:16:21,453
Speaker 4: the quality of politicians that appears quite mediocre generally. As

1201
01:16:21,493 --> 01:16:24,653
Speaker 4: for the American situation, well, of course, although you and

1202
01:16:24,693 --> 01:16:27,933
Speaker 4: I look get to vote, we and the rest of

1203
01:16:27,973 --> 01:16:30,733
Speaker 4: the world, and not least the free world will have

1204
01:16:30,773 --> 01:16:34,453
Speaker 4: to suffer the result in one way or another. Yeah,

1205
01:16:34,733 --> 01:16:37,573
Speaker 4: I mean yes, of course. Donald Trump, in so many

1206
01:16:37,653 --> 01:16:45,253
Speaker 4: ways is this mainly crude and appears quite stupid. Sometimes.

1207
01:16:45,293 --> 01:16:47,853
Speaker 4: On the other hand, those who watch the effect of

1208
01:16:47,893 --> 01:16:52,053
Speaker 4: his policies when he was present say that with regard

1209
01:16:52,173 --> 01:16:56,253
Speaker 4: to deterring Russia and China, he was actually more robust

1210
01:16:56,893 --> 01:17:01,653
Speaker 4: than Obama and Biden. There is also the feature that

1211
01:17:02,653 --> 01:17:05,693
Speaker 4: whatever you think of Donald Trump himself, the fact there

1212
01:17:05,773 --> 01:17:08,053
Speaker 4: is a lot of Americans want to vote for him,

1213
01:17:08,573 --> 01:17:11,973
Speaker 4: and they are often Americans who feel left behind or

1214
01:17:12,013 --> 01:17:16,853
Speaker 4: ignored by the progressive elite. And I've certainly seen in

1215
01:17:16,853 --> 01:17:20,293
Speaker 4: my own country. I see it all the time. The

1216
01:17:20,373 --> 01:17:24,373
Speaker 4: progressive elites do not want to hear certain things, certainly

1217
01:17:24,413 --> 01:17:28,893
Speaker 4: not about immigration, and they just refuse to listen, and

1218
01:17:28,933 --> 01:17:31,933
Speaker 4: as a consequence of which people who are concerned about

1219
01:17:31,973 --> 01:17:36,453
Speaker 4: let's say illegal immigration or the rate of immigration, or

1220
01:17:36,573 --> 01:17:42,213
Speaker 4: that the impact of immigration on housing or parts of

1221
01:17:42,213 --> 01:17:46,293
Speaker 4: the country that are still languishing in post industrial ruin,

1222
01:17:47,013 --> 01:17:49,293
Speaker 4: the refusal of the left to pay attention to other

1223
01:17:49,373 --> 01:17:52,413
Speaker 4: things just means that other people who are concerned about

1224
01:17:52,453 --> 01:17:56,733
Speaker 4: them become increasingly illustrated and move to the right, so

1225
01:17:56,813 --> 01:18:00,893
Speaker 4: that the deafness of the left causes an absurge in

1226
01:18:00,973 --> 01:18:03,093
Speaker 4: support for the right. And I think that's to some

1227
01:18:03,213 --> 01:18:07,293
Speaker 4: extent to it. In so far as you find Trump

1228
01:18:07,893 --> 01:18:11,853
Speaker 4: apport the fault, I think lies to a large extent

1229
01:18:12,573 --> 01:18:13,853
Speaker 4: on the side of the Democrats.

1230
01:18:14,613 --> 01:18:19,453
Speaker 3: You just used a word that was in my mental

1231
01:18:19,653 --> 01:18:23,893
Speaker 3: waiting list. You said it, You said it lies with

1232
01:18:23,973 --> 01:18:27,253
Speaker 3: the with the Democrats. My belief is that there are

1233
01:18:27,293 --> 01:18:32,333
Speaker 3: so many lies being told now that objecting, objecting that

1234
01:18:32,373 --> 01:18:37,853
Speaker 3: they're wrong is a waste of time. The lies, the

1235
01:18:37,893 --> 01:18:42,533
Speaker 3: lies are breeding like flies, and and even even when

1236
01:18:42,573 --> 01:18:46,333
Speaker 3: they are discredited. And I'm thinking of three or so

1237
01:18:46,693 --> 01:18:51,733
Speaker 3: quotes from Trump that got twisted and thrown thrown at

1238
01:18:51,773 --> 01:18:54,813
Speaker 3: him from a from a different perspective. Obama was using

1239
01:18:54,853 --> 01:18:59,093
Speaker 3: one of them yesterday in the speech, and I can't

1240
01:18:59,253 --> 01:19:02,573
Speaker 3: understand why they get away with it. The only reason

1241
01:19:02,613 --> 01:19:05,733
Speaker 3: that I can provide is that things have standards have

1242
01:19:05,773 --> 01:19:09,013
Speaker 3: collapsed so much that nobody cares well.

1243
01:19:09,253 --> 01:19:12,333
Speaker 4: It's a dangerous supposed to be, isn't And I agree.

1244
01:19:12,573 --> 01:19:18,013
Speaker 4: And social media, which is so uninhibited, allows lies to

1245
01:19:18,133 --> 01:19:21,573
Speaker 4: spread in a way that they couldn't do informer generations.

1246
01:19:22,173 --> 01:19:25,453
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm an academic. I try to be reasonable,

1247
01:19:25,773 --> 01:19:28,853
Speaker 4: and I'm sometimes perplexed as to how on earth one

1248
01:19:29,613 --> 01:19:36,013
Speaker 4: persuades people who are zealous and dogmatic. And I think

1249
01:19:36,013 --> 01:19:38,573
Speaker 4: I've come an inclusion. If people want to lie, you

1250
01:19:38,573 --> 01:19:40,693
Speaker 4: can't stop them. You just can't stop them. If they

1251
01:19:40,693 --> 01:19:43,533
Speaker 4: want to lie, they'll carry on doing it unless they

1252
01:19:44,093 --> 01:19:47,813
Speaker 4: suffer some kind of penalty. All one can do. And

1253
01:19:47,893 --> 01:19:52,173
Speaker 4: I just assisted doing this. I tell the truth as

1254
01:19:52,213 --> 01:19:56,373
Speaker 4: best I know it. I try and expose lies I

1255
01:19:56,413 --> 01:20:01,533
Speaker 4: find around me as best I can. My experience has

1256
01:20:01,573 --> 01:20:04,173
Speaker 4: been certainly through the success of my book. And I

1257
01:20:04,253 --> 01:20:08,413
Speaker 4: mentioned the editor of plum Scree, who commissioned it for

1258
01:20:08,533 --> 01:20:12,573
Speaker 4: blooms Free canceled it. He predicted sales up up to

1259
01:20:12,693 --> 01:20:16,333
Speaker 4: twenty thousand copies. It's now soul over sixty thousand copies.

1260
01:20:16,933 --> 01:20:22,573
Speaker 4: My experience in Oxford was putting on lectures to platform

1261
01:20:22,653 --> 01:20:25,813
Speaker 4: more or less conservative thinking. There's a big appetite for it,

1262
01:20:26,293 --> 01:20:28,373
Speaker 4: and since I've been in Australia, a lot of people

1263
01:20:28,413 --> 01:20:30,373
Speaker 4: want to hear what I have to say. So I'm

1264
01:20:30,533 --> 01:20:34,173
Speaker 4: encouraged that. You know, the lopul out there who don't

1265
01:20:34,733 --> 01:20:40,733
Speaker 4: buy the lies, don't buy the orthodoxies about race and

1266
01:20:40,813 --> 01:20:43,773
Speaker 4: gender and colonial history. They don't know very much, but

1267
01:20:43,813 --> 01:20:46,613
Speaker 4: they know enough to know that doesn't make sense. But

1268
01:20:46,893 --> 01:20:50,133
Speaker 4: who are eager to be told the whole truth? So

1269
01:20:50,213 --> 01:20:53,493
Speaker 4: I don't want to unestimate the problem later. And you know,

1270
01:20:53,493 --> 01:20:57,173
Speaker 4: most people like be talking to or not youngsters. But

1271
01:20:58,533 --> 01:21:01,693
Speaker 4: there's an appetet out there for the truth and whatever

1272
01:21:01,733 --> 01:21:07,173
Speaker 4: the difficult is, and however formidable task looks those of

1273
01:21:07,293 --> 01:21:09,733
Speaker 4: us well, we all have a responsibility to speak the

1274
01:21:09,733 --> 01:21:12,733
Speaker 4: truth as we know it, and I'm confident more people

1275
01:21:12,813 --> 01:21:15,933
Speaker 4: will listen than we might we might fear.

1276
01:21:16,413 --> 01:21:20,253
Speaker 3: Okay, I just got to quite you a headline and

1277
01:21:21,333 --> 01:21:24,773
Speaker 3: my question is very simple. Do you believe the following?

1278
01:21:25,773 --> 01:21:30,933
Speaker 3: And if so, can you explain it? But I will

1279
01:21:30,933 --> 01:21:39,253
Speaker 3: allow a brief explanation why the ruling class fears democracy.

1280
01:21:40,653 --> 01:21:41,453
Speaker 3: Do you agree with that?

1281
01:21:43,093 --> 01:21:48,893
Speaker 4: Yes, I do. I do because the ruling class has

1282
01:21:48,933 --> 01:21:55,493
Speaker 4: discovered that democratic politics will produce results they don't like.

1283
01:21:56,133 --> 01:21:59,293
Speaker 4: So it produced Brexit, and it may well produce the

1284
01:21:59,333 --> 01:22:05,453
Speaker 4: second Trump presidency. And so yes, Presa elites begin to

1285
01:22:05,493 --> 01:22:10,213
Speaker 4: wonder about democracy because people are getting wrong. Well, you know,

1286
01:22:11,053 --> 01:22:15,613
Speaker 4: I'm a democrat written and I know that democracy isn't perfect.

1287
01:22:15,653 --> 01:22:18,933
Speaker 4: I mean Hitler. Hitler came to pound that I said before,

1288
01:22:19,893 --> 01:22:25,213
Speaker 4: by normal democratic constitutional means. So you know, the people

1289
01:22:25,213 --> 01:22:28,933
Speaker 4: can get badly wrong, that's for sure. But the alternatives

1290
01:22:28,973 --> 01:22:31,533
Speaker 4: democracy are even worse. And what we have to do is,

1291
01:22:32,493 --> 01:22:36,293
Speaker 4: first of all, when the people give an answer we

1292
01:22:36,293 --> 01:22:39,373
Speaker 4: don't want to hear, we need to listen very carefully.

1293
01:22:39,933 --> 01:22:41,853
Speaker 4: Just in the case that people are saying something we

1294
01:22:41,533 --> 01:22:44,653
Speaker 4: needed to hear. What we shouldn't do, and this is

1295
01:22:44,653 --> 01:22:47,693
Speaker 4: what the eleite to do is to dismiss the people

1296
01:22:47,733 --> 01:22:54,253
Speaker 4: as ignorant, uncivilized, wicked. So those are voted for Brexit,

1297
01:22:54,293 --> 01:22:59,893
Speaker 4: we're all stupid white xenophobes with a salader for empire

1298
01:22:59,933 --> 01:23:06,453
Speaker 4: wanted to take Britain back to nineteen hundred, just as

1299
01:23:06,493 --> 01:23:09,773
Speaker 4: the left too often does. Instead of engaging and engaging

1300
01:23:09,813 --> 01:23:14,213
Speaker 4: with the reasons, the real reasons. The left too often

1301
01:23:14,733 --> 01:23:17,853
Speaker 4: reaches for dismissal, just just wipe it off the table

1302
01:23:18,613 --> 01:23:22,693
Speaker 4: and to dismiss the people. So although the people sometimes

1303
01:23:22,773 --> 01:23:27,333
Speaker 4: do get it wrong, elites need to listen because if

1304
01:23:27,333 --> 01:23:30,453
Speaker 4: they don't listen, they are going to be responsible for

1305
01:23:30,813 --> 01:23:35,373
Speaker 4: a violent reaction. But I'm afraid too many elites just

1306
01:23:35,413 --> 01:23:39,853
Speaker 4: talk to themselves and they're not honest, and they stay

1307
01:23:39,853 --> 01:23:41,333
Speaker 4: in their comfort zone, and they need to come out

1308
01:23:41,333 --> 01:23:45,453
Speaker 4: and and listen carefully and look carefully, and not just

1309
01:23:46,173 --> 01:23:50,013
Speaker 4: dismiss some popular view views they don't like as racist

1310
01:23:50,093 --> 01:23:51,373
Speaker 4: or as anaphobic or whatever.

1311
01:23:52,853 --> 01:23:55,413
Speaker 3: Just looking at the line of this is quite by accident,

1312
01:23:55,533 --> 01:24:01,413
Speaker 3: because I was about the rapid a line from your

1313
01:24:01,853 --> 01:24:05,333
Speaker 3: article that I'll get to in a second. That is

1314
01:24:05,373 --> 01:24:10,653
Speaker 3: not how the progressive lift react. What's the progressive just quickly.

1315
01:24:12,373 --> 01:24:17,573
Speaker 4: Well, I define a progressive as someone who believes in

1316
01:24:18,253 --> 01:24:22,373
Speaker 4: trans generous self identification, who believes that our societies are

1317
01:24:22,413 --> 01:24:26,373
Speaker 4: systemic the racism, believes that clone history was nothing but wickedness.

1318
01:24:27,253 --> 01:24:33,853
Speaker 4: What's more, a progressive is authoritarian, will not heed dissent,

1319
01:24:33,973 --> 01:24:36,253
Speaker 4: will not listen to descent, and does their best to

1320
01:24:37,093 --> 01:24:42,213
Speaker 4: repress it, repress it. So I'll talk about the repressive left,

1321
01:24:42,333 --> 01:24:46,013
Speaker 4: because they all left was more liberal. You know that

1322
01:24:46,133 --> 01:24:48,773
Speaker 4: they all left would have an argument with you and

1323
01:24:48,813 --> 01:24:52,733
Speaker 4: give reasons this plot the repressive left, they don't want

1324
01:24:52,773 --> 01:24:55,453
Speaker 4: an argument. They want to use power. They want to

1325
01:24:55,533 --> 01:24:58,653
Speaker 4: use a timidation to shut things down. So it's a

1326
01:24:58,653 --> 01:25:03,773
Speaker 4: combination of a certain dogmatic point of view plus authoritarian politics.

1327
01:25:04,933 --> 01:25:09,733
Speaker 3: You might have wondered that the of my life.

1328
01:25:11,213 --> 01:25:11,853
Speaker 4: What are you thinking?

1329
01:25:13,013 --> 01:25:16,453
Speaker 3: Oh, I can I can describe a progressive in in

1330
01:25:16,613 --> 01:25:19,973
Speaker 3: two words? All right, go ahead, and you send her

1331
01:25:20,013 --> 01:25:28,533
Speaker 3: adern by her own by her own exclamation. But but

1332
01:25:29,493 --> 01:25:32,653
Speaker 3: people listening to this know my thoughts on that. Soon

1333
01:25:32,653 --> 01:25:34,453
Speaker 3: as soon as as soon as I as soon as

1334
01:25:34,493 --> 01:25:37,653
Speaker 3: I heard her say that she was a progressive, I knew,

1335
01:25:38,053 --> 01:25:40,773
Speaker 3: I knew we were in trouble. So so now I

1336
01:25:40,813 --> 01:25:43,813
Speaker 3: have to get very quickly with you because I'm wearing

1337
01:25:43,813 --> 01:25:51,253
Speaker 3: your sin. I want to encourage the reading of how

1338
01:25:51,373 --> 01:25:55,013
Speaker 3: conservatives can win the culture Wars that you wrote and

1339
01:25:55,053 --> 01:26:00,853
Speaker 3: published only what less than a week ago in in

1340
01:26:00,973 --> 01:26:04,613
Speaker 3: Quadrant magazine and the current Quadrant magazine. It's the lead story.

1341
01:26:04,653 --> 01:26:08,333
Speaker 3: I think from memory, how conservatives can win the culture

1342
01:26:08,493 --> 01:26:10,533
Speaker 3: wardshould why should we read it?

1343
01:26:12,893 --> 01:26:17,453
Speaker 4: You should read it first of all, because you're right. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1344
01:26:18,773 --> 01:26:23,493
Speaker 4: uh read it because some conservatives, sort of centrist conservatives,

1345
01:26:24,333 --> 01:26:28,613
Speaker 4: pretend that the culture wars are not important, that they're manufactured,

1346
01:26:29,133 --> 01:26:32,733
Speaker 4: and they're the kind of things that that nasty people

1347
01:26:32,773 --> 01:26:34,853
Speaker 4: on the extreme right and extreme left fight and we

1348
01:26:34,893 --> 01:26:37,093
Speaker 4: should rise above it. And I say no, the culture

1349
01:26:37,213 --> 01:26:43,093
Speaker 4: was enormously important for the safety of women, for hormongious

1350
01:26:43,173 --> 01:26:46,933
Speaker 4: race relations, and for the self confidence of the liberal

1351
01:26:46,933 --> 01:26:50,573
Speaker 4: Western the face of threats from China and Russia. So

1352
01:26:50,653 --> 01:26:52,933
Speaker 4: conservatives need to get in there and win the argument

1353
01:26:52,973 --> 01:26:57,573
Speaker 4: because important truths are at stake here, and we can

1354
01:26:57,613 --> 01:27:00,493
Speaker 4: win it, I think, because, as I've said, most people

1355
01:27:00,573 --> 01:27:05,813
Speaker 4: in our societies don't know enough about race and gender

1356
01:27:05,893 --> 01:27:11,693
Speaker 4: and colonial history. They're not entirely convinced by the progressive

1357
01:27:12,333 --> 01:27:16,093
Speaker 4: story being hoisted upon them. So if we can simply

1358
01:27:16,173 --> 01:27:23,213
Speaker 4: mobilize the unsure, slightly intimidated majority, I think the landscape,

1359
01:27:23,213 --> 01:27:27,053
Speaker 4: the political landscape, would change quickly. But some of us

1360
01:27:27,093 --> 01:27:29,573
Speaker 4: need to have the courage or the recklessness to stand

1361
01:27:29,653 --> 01:27:33,573
Speaker 4: up and say things that other people object to in

1362
01:27:33,613 --> 01:27:36,533
Speaker 4: the hope that we can really the troops and just

1363
01:27:36,693 --> 01:27:39,573
Speaker 4: encourage more people to voice their doubts because their doubts

1364
01:27:39,613 --> 01:27:43,333
Speaker 4: actually are reasonable and they ensure some of the stuff

1365
01:27:43,333 --> 01:27:46,733
Speaker 4: they're being told is false, and it is false. So

1366
01:27:46,773 --> 01:27:50,653
Speaker 4: we need together the troops to start exposing the falsehoods.

1367
01:27:51,253 --> 01:27:53,813
Speaker 3: It's a mastery as far as I'm concerned, how conservatives

1368
01:27:53,853 --> 01:27:57,213
Speaker 3: can win. The culture was and it's the I think

1369
01:27:57,253 --> 01:28:04,093
Speaker 3: the lead story in the November Quadrant magazine from Australia

1370
01:28:04,213 --> 01:28:07,013
Speaker 3: that I encourage everyone to read.

1371
01:28:07,613 --> 01:28:10,013
Speaker 4: Yes I should. I should add later that it was

1372
01:28:10,013 --> 01:28:11,973
Speaker 4: a Quadrant that brought me for the first time to

1373
01:28:11,973 --> 01:28:17,773
Speaker 4: Australia three weeks ago, and now FSU New Zealand have

1374
01:28:17,853 --> 01:28:19,693
Speaker 4: brought me here to Wellington.

1375
01:28:19,493 --> 01:28:23,293
Speaker 3: The Free Speech Union, of course. And you're talking, you're

1376
01:28:23,333 --> 01:28:24,293
Speaker 3: talking tonight.

1377
01:28:25,813 --> 01:28:29,533
Speaker 4: Talking to night in summer in Parliament, I believe I'm

1378
01:28:29,573 --> 01:28:35,333
Speaker 4: also talking in christ Church on Wednesday and in Auckland

1379
01:28:35,573 --> 01:28:36,893
Speaker 4: on on Saturdays.

1380
01:28:38,333 --> 01:28:43,253
Speaker 3: Excellent, Nigel Bigger. It's been a huge pleasure, at a

1381
01:28:43,333 --> 01:28:49,533
Speaker 3: privilege to meet you sort of. And and one day

1382
01:28:50,253 --> 01:28:51,813
Speaker 3: if I get to shake your hand, you can buy

1383
01:28:51,893 --> 01:28:53,253
Speaker 3: me a drink. I'm sorry, I'll buy.

1384
01:28:53,133 --> 01:28:57,093
Speaker 4: You a drink. I will, Linton, And thanks so much

1385
01:28:57,093 --> 01:28:58,893
Speaker 4: for having me on because these issues are so important

1386
01:28:58,893 --> 01:29:00,773
Speaker 4: to all of us, and it's great that you give

1387
01:29:00,813 --> 01:29:02,413
Speaker 4: me the maritime it's my pleasure.

1388
01:29:02,693 --> 01:29:09,373
Speaker 3: Thank you for now Light and swith okay mail room

1389
01:29:09,453 --> 01:29:12,853
Speaker 3: for two hundred and sixty three, missus producer. We are

1390
01:29:13,013 --> 01:29:16,453
Speaker 3: very close to the first the first announcements with regard

1391
01:29:16,573 --> 01:29:20,453
Speaker 3: to the election, and I think we'll just play this

1392
01:29:20,493 --> 01:29:21,053
Speaker 3: straight down the.

1393
01:29:21,013 --> 01:29:25,173
Speaker 5: Middle, absolutely latent, so let's get let's get going with it.

1394
01:29:25,773 --> 01:29:30,813
Speaker 5: Aileen says, it wouldn't surprise me if Queen Kamala the

1395
01:29:30,853 --> 01:29:34,053
Speaker 5: Kookabaro wins the election on November the fifth, Bring on

1396
01:29:34,133 --> 01:29:37,613
Speaker 5: the skyrockets and Roman candles. She'll be laughing all the

1397
01:29:37,653 --> 01:29:39,773
Speaker 5: way to the top, and so will her handlers in

1398
01:29:39,853 --> 01:29:44,013
Speaker 5: the background. Political dynasties are powerful in the Democrat Party,

1399
01:29:44,173 --> 01:29:48,053
Speaker 5: especially when they're lawyers, the Clinton's and the Obamas as

1400
01:29:48,133 --> 01:29:54,853
Speaker 5: recent examples. But lawyers, no disrespect, aren't economists, and as wordsmiths,

1401
01:29:54,933 --> 01:29:57,333
Speaker 5: they can often pull on emotions to win their case.

1402
01:29:57,933 --> 01:30:01,213
Speaker 5: And Eileen says, God bless America and God defend New.

1403
01:30:01,173 --> 01:30:05,973
Speaker 3: Zealand indeed on both counts. Now, Jenny, Jenny was watching

1404
01:30:06,093 --> 01:30:08,933
Speaker 3: a television interview and she was for us by what

1405
01:30:09,093 --> 01:30:12,733
Speaker 3: the interviewee was saying, I don't know who it was.

1406
01:30:13,693 --> 01:30:15,613
Speaker 3: Until I can find out, I'll just leave that apart.

1407
01:30:16,453 --> 01:30:19,453
Speaker 3: I'm totally perplexed. She goes on, who you can believe

1408
01:30:19,533 --> 01:30:22,173
Speaker 3: in this troubled world in which we live. This gets

1409
01:30:22,253 --> 01:30:24,933
Speaker 3: worse and worse the more it goes on. I'm beginning

1410
01:30:25,013 --> 01:30:27,493
Speaker 3: to think that whoever wins the election, there's going to

1411
01:30:27,533 --> 01:30:32,013
Speaker 3: be big trouble either way. We watched January sixth, carry

1412
01:30:32,053 --> 01:30:35,773
Speaker 3: on when Trump requested police protection as there was talk

1413
01:30:35,853 --> 01:30:40,213
Speaker 3: of trouble. Nanci Pelosi did not grant his request the

1414
01:30:40,413 --> 01:30:44,253
Speaker 3: extra for the extra protection, and the officers did not arrive.

1415
01:30:44,693 --> 01:30:47,613
Speaker 3: But there was a Democrat man who was identified by

1416
01:30:47,693 --> 01:30:50,053
Speaker 3: the media as being a Democrat. He was wearing a

1417
01:30:50,093 --> 01:30:52,493
Speaker 3: Trump hat. He was stirring up the crowd big time.

1418
01:30:52,613 --> 01:30:57,333
Speaker 3: No mention of that occurring. I can't think of his name,

1419
01:30:57,733 --> 01:31:00,373
Speaker 3: but he did get he got nailed in the end.

1420
01:31:00,573 --> 01:31:02,693
Speaker 3: I think he had a connection with the FBI, But

1421
01:31:02,773 --> 01:31:05,693
Speaker 3: I'm not totally sure. Are you able to mention any

1422
01:31:05,733 --> 01:31:06,853
Speaker 3: of this on your podcast?

1423
01:31:08,053 --> 01:31:08,093
Speaker 2: No?

1424
01:31:08,733 --> 01:31:11,613
Speaker 3: I can't, or is the subject much too sensitive to

1425
01:31:11,733 --> 01:31:16,453
Speaker 3: even try? Never roll on the fifth, Well, here we are, Leyton.

1426
01:31:16,173 --> 01:31:18,293
Speaker 5: Michael says, love your show, but I won't say a

1427
01:31:18,373 --> 01:31:22,213
Speaker 5: second Trump presidency is inevitable just yet. Too many gaffes

1428
01:31:22,253 --> 01:31:25,373
Speaker 5: the left wing media have pounced on at the moment,

1429
01:31:25,453 --> 01:31:28,653
Speaker 5: such as the Puerto Rico joke, and they don't care

1430
01:31:28,693 --> 01:31:32,013
Speaker 5: if women like it or not comment and Professor Lickman,

1431
01:31:32,093 --> 01:31:35,493
Speaker 5: who's been write nine out of ten past elections, is

1432
01:31:35,613 --> 01:31:39,213
Speaker 5: still predicting a Harris victory. Hopefully this will be his

1433
01:31:39,413 --> 01:31:41,053
Speaker 5: second incorrect prediction.

1434
01:31:41,373 --> 01:31:44,373
Speaker 3: Yes, you need a coin, that's all toss up. Some

1435
01:31:44,573 --> 01:31:48,733
Speaker 3: comments from Claire some comments regarding a letter about how

1436
01:31:49,173 --> 01:31:52,693
Speaker 3: easy it is for overseas people to fraudulently vote in

1437
01:31:52,733 --> 01:31:56,093
Speaker 3: the US election. As an expat who voted, I know

1438
01:31:56,213 --> 01:32:00,653
Speaker 3: it's not easy. But first, Bezos doesn't need to endorse Kamara.

1439
01:32:01,413 --> 01:32:04,173
Speaker 3: With almost every article favorable to her in his newspaper,

1440
01:32:04,293 --> 01:32:08,653
Speaker 3: it's extremely clear he supports her. I wouldn't actually count

1441
01:32:08,773 --> 01:32:12,013
Speaker 3: on that the moment. You might be right, you might

1442
01:32:12,093 --> 01:32:16,093
Speaker 3: be wrong. For an expat to vote. We need an

1443
01:32:16,253 --> 01:32:20,013
Speaker 3: address at our last domicide in the US. We need

1444
01:32:20,213 --> 01:32:22,893
Speaker 3: a social Security number, we need to fill in a

1445
01:32:23,013 --> 01:32:27,573
Speaker 3: voter registration and absentee ballot request, sign it and email

1446
01:32:27,613 --> 01:32:31,613
Speaker 3: it back. Due to time zone differences, weekends, etc. This

1447
01:32:31,773 --> 01:32:35,973
Speaker 3: took me about four days. Only then will they send

1448
01:32:36,053 --> 01:32:39,213
Speaker 3: you your ballot with strict instructions on mailing it back.

1449
01:32:39,333 --> 01:32:42,853
Speaker 3: That's right, mailing it back. Four years ago I voted online,

1450
01:32:42,893 --> 01:32:46,013
Speaker 3: but maybe because of fraud, that option was not available

1451
01:32:46,133 --> 01:32:49,373
Speaker 3: this year. The ballot must be placed into a plain

1452
01:32:49,533 --> 01:32:54,293
Speaker 3: envelope with voted ballot written on it. This envelope is

1453
01:32:54,333 --> 01:32:58,053
Speaker 3: then placed into another plane envelope, also with instructions on

1454
01:32:58,133 --> 01:33:01,213
Speaker 3: that envelope as to the mailing address and where your

1455
01:33:01,293 --> 01:33:05,093
Speaker 3: return address and signature goes. I wanted to track my ballot,

1456
01:33:05,173 --> 01:33:08,413
Speaker 3: but New Zealand post only allows those blue places to

1457
01:33:08,613 --> 01:33:12,053
Speaker 3: envelopes for tracking. My ballot would have been disallowed for

1458
01:33:12,173 --> 01:33:17,053
Speaker 3: not being mailed in a plain envelope. Crazy, my state

1459
01:33:17,333 --> 01:33:21,413
Speaker 3: is read my ballot wouldn't be necessarily so, but I

1460
01:33:21,533 --> 01:33:24,093
Speaker 3: wanted to vote for Trump so he can take out

1461
01:33:24,213 --> 01:33:29,333
Speaker 3: the garbage. Is to that, Thank you clear Layton.

1462
01:33:29,413 --> 01:33:31,773
Speaker 5: Vanessa says, just wanted to say how much I enjoyed

1463
01:33:31,813 --> 01:33:34,773
Speaker 5: listening to the latest podcast with your son Christian talking

1464
01:33:34,853 --> 01:33:37,813
Speaker 5: with you from the UK. He says he'll talk again anytime.

1465
01:33:37,973 --> 01:33:39,173
Speaker 5: You'll have to hold him to that.

1466
01:33:39,693 --> 01:33:44,093
Speaker 3: Indeed, I will I am and as a promise. Now,

1467
01:33:44,133 --> 01:33:48,013
Speaker 3: Allison writes once I was a listener to Candace Owen's

1468
01:33:49,253 --> 01:33:51,493
Speaker 3: But have you heard her in the past year or so?

1469
01:33:52,253 --> 01:33:55,893
Speaker 3: Her vitriol, her lies against Israel, her false and evil

1470
01:33:55,933 --> 01:33:59,413
Speaker 3: accusations against the IDF. The way she words thinks her

1471
01:33:59,533 --> 01:34:05,133
Speaker 3: serious slanders against all manner of persons such as Madame

1472
01:34:05,653 --> 01:34:09,853
Speaker 3: Macron and others, is oppress and difficult to listen to,

1473
01:34:10,253 --> 01:34:13,773
Speaker 3: so I don't online. One may look up the long

1474
01:34:13,893 --> 01:34:17,653
Speaker 3: letter that Dennis Prager wrote to Candace, a one time

1475
01:34:17,773 --> 01:34:20,653
Speaker 3: friend of his, trying to point out her errors in

1476
01:34:20,813 --> 01:34:24,533
Speaker 3: his gracious way. But would it be too much to

1477
01:34:24,573 --> 01:34:28,053
Speaker 3: say that there is no correcting Candace. When an arrogant

1478
01:34:28,053 --> 01:34:31,053
Speaker 3: person knows everything, what is one to do but boycott her?

1479
01:34:31,693 --> 01:34:35,613
Speaker 3: Her speech is so filled with deep rooted bitterness, anti Semitism,

1480
01:34:35,813 --> 01:34:40,413
Speaker 3: false presuppositions, and lack of knowledge of the subject that

1481
01:34:40,573 --> 01:34:44,733
Speaker 3: we actually have been praying that she not be accepted

1482
01:34:44,893 --> 01:34:47,533
Speaker 3: in Australia. Our first prayer has been answered, and also

1483
01:34:47,613 --> 01:34:51,173
Speaker 3: that New Zealand reject her application, waiting for our second

1484
01:34:51,213 --> 01:34:54,413
Speaker 3: prayer to be heard. Bless you and Carolyn Layton, and

1485
01:34:54,533 --> 01:34:57,493
Speaker 3: again thank you for all the hard work that you

1486
01:34:57,613 --> 01:35:01,173
Speaker 3: do in bringing us a superb podcast every week. And

1487
01:35:01,253 --> 01:35:04,013
Speaker 3: I appreciate that letter comment Allison.

1488
01:35:03,733 --> 01:35:07,013
Speaker 5: Thank you, Paul says, thanks for all that you do.

1489
01:35:07,173 --> 01:35:09,453
Speaker 5: I don't know how you do it up against ignorance

1490
01:35:09,533 --> 01:35:13,253
Speaker 5: so called media actors and announcers who are either too

1491
01:35:13,373 --> 01:35:15,733
Speaker 5: complacent to go and find the truth or more likely

1492
01:35:15,893 --> 01:35:18,813
Speaker 5: too lazy, pathetic and scared to speak the truth.

1493
01:35:18,893 --> 01:35:22,133
Speaker 3: I'll go for the second, do what is right.

1494
01:35:22,853 --> 01:35:24,933
Speaker 5: I'm not a religious man, but I am praying for

1495
01:35:25,013 --> 01:35:28,093
Speaker 5: the right outcome on Tuesday, Wednesday, New Zealand Time.

1496
01:35:28,413 --> 01:35:31,813
Speaker 3: And that's from Paul, Paul, and that's it. Thanks. Now

1497
01:35:32,013 --> 01:35:35,493
Speaker 3: we wait to see in the well. By the time

1498
01:35:35,573 --> 01:35:37,373
Speaker 3: you hear this, of course we all know numbers, but

1499
01:35:37,493 --> 01:35:40,573
Speaker 3: at the moment we speak with bated breath. Well, I

1500
01:35:40,653 --> 01:35:42,093
Speaker 3: was going to say ignorance that I thought, no, that's

1501
01:35:42,133 --> 01:35:47,293
Speaker 3: the wrong word. It could be misinterpreted without information. That's right,

1502
01:35:47,413 --> 01:35:57,893
Speaker 3: see you soon, see you. Now that will take us

1503
01:35:57,893 --> 01:36:00,413
Speaker 3: out to a number two sixty three. I have to

1504
01:36:00,453 --> 01:36:02,293
Speaker 3: say that it was put together under a little bit

1505
01:36:02,333 --> 01:36:06,013
Speaker 3: of pressure, but nevertheless we got there. I think. So

1506
01:36:06,333 --> 01:36:08,053
Speaker 3: if you would like to write to us Layton and

1507
01:36:08,173 --> 01:36:10,493
Speaker 3: New U Talks av dot co dot nz or Carolyn

1508
01:36:10,533 --> 01:36:13,973
Speaker 3: at newstalksb dot co dot nz. I would expect and

1509
01:36:14,093 --> 01:36:16,493
Speaker 3: hope there'll be plenty of commentary on the on the

1510
01:36:16,573 --> 01:36:20,573
Speaker 3: election outcome, part of which we have covered. I wish

1511
01:36:20,613 --> 01:36:23,813
Speaker 3: there was more. So it remains to be said that

1512
01:36:23,933 --> 01:36:25,933
Speaker 3: we shall be back for two seventy four in a

1513
01:36:26,013 --> 01:36:29,853
Speaker 3: few days. Until then, thank you for listening and we'll

1514
01:36:29,973 --> 01:36:30,413
Speaker 3: talk soon.

1515
01:36:38,453 --> 01:36:41,653
Speaker 2: Thank you for more from News Talks B.

1516
01:36:41,933 --> 01:36:45,173
Speaker 1: Listen live on air or online, and keep our shows

1517
01:36:45,213 --> 01:36:48,493
Speaker 1: with you wherever you go with our podcast on iHeartRadio