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Speaker 1: Trish Shurson Shurson Willis pr Is with us on the

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Speaker 1: huddle tonight. Trish, good evening, Hello, Ryan and Joseph beganni's

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Speaker 1: CEO of Child Fun Josie, good evening to you, Hello

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Speaker 1: and happy New Year. Nice to have you both on

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Speaker 1: the show to kick us off.

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Speaker 2: Are we not past that yet? We must be past

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Speaker 2: saying Happy New Year?

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Speaker 3: Someone said to me today it's it's Valentine's Day? Is

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Speaker 3: the cutoff? Which I felt, Oh.

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Speaker 1: We've got anniverse? Well, surely white angy day.

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Speaker 3: How many hn wy's can you put an emails? I'm

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Speaker 3: thinking I've I've been back a day and I've already

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Speaker 3: at my limits.

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Speaker 1: Overwhelmed.

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Speaker 3: I'm overwhelmed.

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Speaker 1: Right, were you overwhelmed? Underwhelmed feelings about the state of

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Speaker 1: the nation because you went to the speech today, didn't you? Trish?

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Speaker 3: I went to the speech today. It was at the

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Speaker 3: brand new New Zealand International Convention Center, which, don't forget,

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Speaker 3: was the brainchild of Christopher Luxen's political hero John Key

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Speaker 3: many years late. But I have to say one of

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Speaker 3: the highlights was actually seeing the nz ICC today. It

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Speaker 3: looked fantastic.

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Speaker 1: I think you went to a state of the nation

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Speaker 1: address by the country's leader, and your takeaway was the building.

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Speaker 3: Well, well, you know you sometimes during your speech you

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Speaker 3: need to look at the carpet and the drakes and

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Speaker 3: things as you sort of your eyes dripped around the road.

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Speaker 3: But but no, meal was great. I tell you what

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Speaker 3: I do worry about though, when I when I go

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Speaker 3: to things like this, I'm always very sympathetic to the

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Speaker 3: plants that get wheeled out on the stage as a backdrop.

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Speaker 3: You know, they they always look sort of a bit.

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Speaker 3: It's a tough gig for those background plants. It really

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Speaker 3: is how do you do you stand out? Do you look?

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Speaker 3: You know? Do you how do you keep a straight

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Speaker 3: face for it? Anyway, No, all jokes aside. Here's here's

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Speaker 3: the interesting thing.

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Speaker 1: Is there one? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Well there is? It actually funny enough. This was a

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Speaker 3: very sober corporate crowd. And I don't just mean because

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Speaker 3: of the seriousness of where we're at. I looked around

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Speaker 3: the room and those big tables covered in wineglasses, not

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Speaker 3: one full, right, So everyone went along today. This is

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Speaker 3: not a fun outing. This was a serious event to

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Speaker 3: kind of sniff the breeze and see what the vibe was. Overall,

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Speaker 3: my view of Luxeen. In his speech, he was energized,

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Speaker 3: he looked fresh. But the feedback that I got from

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Speaker 3: those who I spoke to afterwards was that the speech

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Speaker 3: was repetitive. So it's a continuation of that sort of

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Speaker 3: mode that Chrys Fhilixen has where he has two or

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Speaker 3: three sort of you know, sayings or slogans get ready

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Speaker 3: this year for fixing the basics and set the foundation

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Speaker 3: for growth. He described it as a mantra and we

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Speaker 3: are going to hear that ad nauseum. Very little that

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Speaker 3: was new or material in the speech except a couple

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Speaker 3: of things that stood out to me. One was the

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Speaker 3: sort of wedge for other political parties in the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister saying there is no room this year for any

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Speaker 3: extravagant election promises. So he wasn't only speaking to national

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Speaker 3: he was actually putting a warning out to other parties

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Speaker 3: into voters. If you think of promises is too good,

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Speaker 3: it probably is because as we all know, you know,

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Speaker 3: the country is still in pretty dire financial circumstances. He

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Speaker 3: gave a very interesting and in my view, sort of

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Speaker 3: his fresh take on where New Zealand is sitting and

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Speaker 3: what is changing for us because of the international geopolitical situation,

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Speaker 3: but he only mentioned Putin once, no mention of Trump whatsoever,

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Speaker 3: In fact, studiously avoided that. And then his big cell

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Speaker 3: was on the three things we already know, which are

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Speaker 3: changes to keep we save, changes to the RIMA, and

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Speaker 3: getting rid of the NCA. So safe and repetitive really

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Speaker 3: is how I would sum it up.

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Speaker 1: Safe and repetitive. Gosh, what a raging endorsement, Joseph. Your thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Oh, thank god for the pot plants. I mean, when

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Speaker 2: we spent the first five minutes talking about the pot plants,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't really fill you with confidence that this has

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Speaker 2: been a searingly memorable to Chilean speech, does it? And

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Speaker 2: I do think, I mean, I listened to some of it,

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Speaker 2: and I've read the reports of it too. I agree,

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Speaker 2: Trisha seemed to be kind of dated as a message.

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Speaker 2: When I looked back to our huddle last year this

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Speaker 2: time last year, it was the year of growth, and

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Speaker 2: we all know that the year of growth ended up

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Speaker 2: not being the year of growth, but being the year

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Speaker 2: of the organogram. You know, there was lots of sort

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Speaker 2: of restructuring with science and research and so on. So

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Speaker 2: there has been some stuff done but it just feels

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Speaker 2: like this whole message of reset the economy, fix the

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Speaker 2: basics feels quite dated, and there wasn't really enough there

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Speaker 2: about well what will the future look like? And I

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Speaker 2: think Simon Bridges sum this up. You know, people want

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Speaker 2: to know not just what you're going to do now,

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Speaker 2: but what's the next term look like if we had

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Speaker 2: the same government. And he does have a style problem.

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Speaker 2: He talks with this sort of you know, he talks

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Speaker 2: spreadsheet rather than human. It's all about PMI indicators and

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Speaker 2: ober gall and green shoots and so on, and he

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Speaker 2: sort of loses the room. Rather than talking about I

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Speaker 2: want your wages to go up, I want prices to

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Speaker 2: go down, I want kids not to be hungry, and

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Speaker 2: I want more hospital operations. You don't get that kind

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Speaker 2: of granular talking to people as humans. You just get

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Speaker 2: this sort of spreadsheet talk.

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Speaker 1: All of this is not to say that he would

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Speaker 1: lose an election. The big question now, of course, is

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Speaker 1: what date will that be held? Will debate that next.

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Speaker 1: Trishuson and Josie Bigani on the huddle, So Wednesday we'll

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Speaker 1: find out. You're on the huddle, by the way, Tress

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Speaker 1: Susan and Josie Bigani. Wednesday we find out the election date.

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Speaker 1: And I just made the point earlier on the show

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Speaker 1: Josie that because last year we were all saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: they should go as late as possible, wait till the

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Speaker 1: economy improves. But I was just thinking about over the summer,

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Speaker 1: you've got all this international stuff going on, more tariffs

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Speaker 1: and threats and blah blund and geopolitics. Should he do

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Speaker 1: something bold and should he come out and say I'm

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Speaker 1: going to the polls early, I'm going to the polls

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Speaker 1: and end of July, start of August. You know, are

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Speaker 1: people going to warm to him between July and November?

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Speaker 1: Are people going to feel materially better off over the

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Speaker 1: course of those three months? Or is the political calculation? Now,

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Speaker 1: let's actually stop the Winston Seymour side show from going

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Speaker 1: on too long. Let's pounce while the Maldi party is

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Speaker 1: in disarray and go a bit early and do something

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Speaker 1: a bit bold but different but surprising for the electorate.

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Speaker 2: Thoughts be crazy to do that, though, Ryan. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if he's only got from January to say June, you're

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Speaker 2: saying a June election, he's got even less time to

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Speaker 2: make us think that he's that he's got some vision

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Speaker 2: and he's got something to say about the next election.

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Speaker 2: And I think, what you what I mean? You imagine

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Speaker 2: if it was basically a two year term, is what

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Speaker 2: we'd have then if we went because everything would just

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Speaker 2: gear up for the election in June, and you know,

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Speaker 2: we'd lose a year. So when we're unstable enough with

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Speaker 2: three year terms, I reckon, we just don't want to

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Speaker 2: do that. But but and so I don't think he

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Speaker 2: will do it either, Ryan that he won't do it

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Speaker 2: he needs But the one thing I would say about

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Speaker 2: one of the things I want to point out about

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Speaker 2: the speech is that the indication is that he's going

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Speaker 2: to make the election about the r m A about

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Speaker 2: about the changes to the RMA. And there are risks

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Speaker 2: for national and labor with that, which I think is

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Speaker 2: really interesting because the Nats are splitting on development, so

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Speaker 2: you know, Bess and christ Bishop and that lot want

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Speaker 2: to build fast, get things done, know, hurry up. And

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Speaker 2: then you've got the anti housing intensification side of the

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Speaker 2: right where Act won't support intensification in Auckland and so on.

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Speaker 2: And then in labor you've got the same split where

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Speaker 2: you've got the kind of hands off degrowths don't do

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Speaker 2: anything to the environment, and then you've got that versus

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Speaker 2: sort of abundance, get out and build stuff. That's the

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Speaker 2: new idea on the left. So it's going to be

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Speaker 2: that's going to be really interesting if that issue becomes

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Speaker 2: the election issue.

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Speaker 3: Well, I thought you were being unnecessarily provocative of your

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Speaker 3: first day back. Snap elections in New Zealand are very

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Speaker 3: rare and they usually smell like trouble. So fifty one

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Speaker 3: it was sid Holland went to the election early and

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Speaker 3: what that was was a reaction to the waterfront strikes

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Speaker 3: and he was really back me or sack me.

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Speaker 1: Holly Clark did.

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Speaker 3: It, Helen Clark did in two thousand and two, and

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Speaker 3: then of course you had Muldoon in eighty four. But

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Speaker 3: both of those were about actually chaos or a breakdown

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Speaker 3: in their own government and inability to have the numbers.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I say it really signals a lack

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Speaker 3: of control rather than leadership. So I don't think there's

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Speaker 3: any way that Luxem will do it. And don't forget

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Speaker 3: this election is going to be about the economy, and

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Speaker 3: what National is banking on is that by the time

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Speaker 3: we get to November, people will feel materially better off

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Speaker 3: in their back pocket and they'll be willing to give

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Speaker 3: them a second.

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Speaker 1: They reward National or the Coalition for.

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Speaker 3: That Well, here's I think this is the twist for

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Speaker 3: this election. Don't forget this election. This election is the

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Speaker 3: it's the thirtieth anniversary election of MMP, which the first

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Speaker 3: MMP election was in nineteen ninety six, and this is

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Speaker 3: the first MMP government I can remember where the major

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Speaker 3: party will have to work the hardest in terms of

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Speaker 3: differentiating itself different and selling its value to the electorate. Normally,

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Speaker 3: what has happened in all of the m MP elections

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Speaker 3: is at this stage the minor parties who are propping up,

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Speaker 3: you know, a major party in the coalition, they are

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Speaker 3: blinking in and out of the five percent. There's a

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Speaker 3: question on whether or not they'll make it back because

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Speaker 3: it's normally very hard for them to sell their value.

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Speaker 3: This time around New Zealand Fares particularly and ACT are

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Speaker 3: looking like their poll numbers may potentially increase on last time,

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Speaker 3: whereas National is down in the you know, in the

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Speaker 3: low thirties.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And how interesting In his speech today, Trish

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Speaker 2: that he didn't mention Labor once, but he did mention

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Speaker 2: Shane Jones by name, so not even just New Zealand first,

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Speaker 2: but Shane Jones. So they clearly see the threat from

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Speaker 2: New Zealand first, I think, but of you know, being

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Speaker 2: kind of bold and brash and saying yeap, let's let's

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Speaker 2: get the oil and gas going, let's do this, let's mind,

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Speaker 2: let's build, let's get stuff done. So you're absolutely right

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Speaker 2: they're seeing the threat from their smaller coalition parties rather

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Speaker 2: than from Labor.

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Speaker 1: Trishuson Jace Bcganni on the Huddle tonight. Good to have

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Speaker 1: you both on for your analysis. For more or from

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Speaker 1: Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks it'd

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Speaker 1: be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio