1 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Kilda. 2 00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 2: I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page, a 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:12,239 Speaker 2: daily podcast presented. 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: By The New Zealand Herald. 5 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: This week is seeing New Zealand's highest ranking politicians walking 6 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 2: a tricky diplomatic tight rope. Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: been courting his Indian counterpartner Andra Mody to kickstart trade 8 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 2: deal discussions, but their meeting took a twist when Mody 9 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:36,840 Speaker 2: raised concerns about anti Indian activity in New Zealand. Around 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: the same time, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston 11 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: Peters has been in Washington for his first face to 12 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 2: face talks with the second Trump administration. Those come at 13 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 2: a time when the US is causing upset in Europe 14 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: with its stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 15 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: So how should New Zealand. 16 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 2: Handle these new diplomatic relationships and can we apply any 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: of our tactics from our relationship with today on the 18 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,759 Speaker 2: front page? Why can't our university professor of international law, 19 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: Our Gillespie is with us to look at our changing world? 20 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: Now let's start with India. 21 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: The meeting between Luxon and Mody seemed quite positive for 22 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: the most part, Hey, but There was a small discussion 23 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,480 Speaker 2: near the end where Mody said, and I quote, we 24 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 2: have shared our concerns about anti India activities by some 25 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 2: illegal elements in New Zealand. We are confident that we 26 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 2: will continue to receive the support of the New Zealand 27 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:40,839 Speaker 2: government in taking action against these illegal elements. Now he's 28 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 2: referring to the separatist Kalistan movement. What do you make 29 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 2: of this coming up in the talks? 30 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 3: This is a difficult area. I think the first point 31 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 3: is that when he mister Mody mentioned illegal elements, he's 32 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 3: talking about illegal in terms of India, not illegal in 33 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 3: terms of Zealand. The problem of seek separatism and its 34 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 3: link to violence and terror historically has been very strong 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 3: and there has been a number of atrocious acts and 36 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 3: reprisals against these communities over time. The way India has 37 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 3: responded is that it's designated a number of these groups 38 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 3: associated with separatism as terrorist organizations. New Zealand and other 39 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 3: countries haven't responded in the same way, and this has 40 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: created difficulties not just with this current statement, but also 41 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 3: like with countries like Canada, whereby there has been interference 42 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 3: in Canadian domestic affairs against some of these separatist groups. 43 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 3: From here, the question will be whether there is pressure 44 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 3: put upon the government to designate the separatists seek separatists 45 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 3: as terror groups, which would mean talking in support of them, 46 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: raising finance for them, or any advocacy for them a 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 3: criminal activity, or the approach with New Zealand has which 48 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 3: has continued to allow them to exercise their freedom of 49 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 3: speech and exercise it responsibly. The key thing is that 50 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 3: there should never be an advocacy for violence at home or 51 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 3: advocacy for violence abroad. 52 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 2: Luxeon quickly said after that statement, New Zealand has strong 53 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 2: free speech laws and this had been expressed. Does this 54 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 2: suggest a potential issue further down the track. 55 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 3: It does suggest a potential issue because some of these 56 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 3: communities seeking separatism do methods like they hold fake referendums, 57 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 3: or they have advocacy which can be quite confrontational to India. 58 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 3: And the question will be where the New Zealand does 59 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 3: more to control these groups. It's hard for us because 60 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 3: we value freedom of speech and dissent quite strongly, and 61 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 3: we allow diaspora communities to speak freely without fear of 62 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 3: repercussion from their original countries, and so we see this 63 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 3: worth communities from China, communities from Russia and communities from Iran, 64 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 3: whereby they are allowed to speak with the freedoms that 65 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 3: New Zealand gives an opposition to the countries that they 66 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 3: once came from. The point where it becomes difficult and 67 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 3: it should not be tolerated is if it involves any 68 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 3: advocacy of violence. But for discussion of peaceful change, I 69 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: think we need to be liberal and open to these avenues. 70 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 4: New Zealand is committed to doing more with India across 71 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 4: a wide range of areas, defense and security, trade and economics, 72 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 4: people to people ties, education, tourism, sports and culture. Our 73 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,919 Speaker 4: two way trade today stands at around three billion New 74 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 4: Zealand dollars a year, but there is huge potential to grow. 75 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 4: And it is in that context that I want to 76 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 4: say thank you and I'm pleased to welcome me if 77 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 4: it's a Minister Goyal and Minister maclay on their agreement 78 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 4: between New Zealand and India that we will launch immediately 79 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 4: free comprehensive free trade agreement negotiations making sure that we 80 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 4: work towards a balanced ambition and comprehensive agreement. 81 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 2: How do we balance things like this when we are 82 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 2: hard launching our pitch for a trade deal with India, 83 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 2: does the fact that we're perhaps keener than India for 84 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 2: this deal give them power. 85 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 3: We're at a point in international politics where everything's becoming 86 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 3: quite muddy, and an ideal world, discussions about trade wouldn't 87 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 3: be muddied by discussions about dissident groups in foreign countries. 88 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 3: But what you're seeing is that discussions about trade are 89 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 3: now linked to the war on drugs, illegal immigration gangs. 90 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 3: And you don't have to see mister Trump for this. 91 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 3: And so what used to be distinct avenues whereby you'd 92 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 3: have your negotiations and deal with it one problem at 93 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 3: a time, now everything is getting quite muddy, and so 94 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 3: that means it's not unexpected that you might find the 95 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 3: relationship for a trade deal linked to political repression of 96 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: a group that is deemed by terrorist organization in India 97 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 3: but not in New. 98 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: Zealand on the other side of the world. 99 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 2: Winston Peters has been in the US with Secretary of 100 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 2: State Marco Rubio on Wednesday. 101 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 5: Well, we shared some significant information. For example that since 102 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 5: eighteen seventy we've been asking it about a trade agreement 103 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 5: and I put it out to him how patient they 104 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 5: were on a matter of tariff. We had set the 105 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 5: centard four decades ago and other countries were catching up 106 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 5: in terms of fairness. He understood that. So we came 107 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 5: where much more confident than when we originally came here. 108 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 2: He's came to secure New Zealand an exemption from agricultural 109 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 2: tariffs the US has promised from April second. Now, New 110 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 2: Zealand doesn't currently seem to be on the US's radar 111 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 2: when it comes to these tariffs and the trade wars 112 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 2: happening overseas. What do you think we need to do 113 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 2: to not catch their attention, to stay under the radar. 114 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 3: Well, I think we are on the radar. It just 115 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 3: hasn't been announced, and we aren't going to find out 116 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 3: whether we've been detected and will be impacted until April 117 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 3: the second. I think what will happen, and what has 118 00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 3: been happenant is what we have tried exceptionally hard not 119 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 3: to cause offense to mister Trump or his regime. And 120 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 3: this means that when things have been difficult or some 121 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 3: of mister Trump's suggestions have been problematic for New Zealand 122 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 3: in terms of what we believe as a rule based order, 123 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 3: we haven't been critical unlike other countries. And then when 124 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 3: mister Goff, our ambassador, our highest diplomat in Britain's made 125 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 3: some undiplomatic comments, he was removed from his post. And 126 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 3: so our approach so far has been not to upset 127 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 3: mister Trump, even though he may be doing things which 128 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 3: are not in our interest. The problem we face is 129 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,920 Speaker 3: that it might not be enough just being quiet and 130 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 3: not upsetting mister Trump, because he's already made clear with 131 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 3: the countries which is closer to like Australia than New Zealand, 132 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 3: that even they will not have exemptions over the moves 133 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 3: of a free trade and so I would be surprised 134 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 3: if we are exempt from the new next level of 135 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 3: tariffs while comparable countries which are closer to him are 136 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 3: not exempt. But having said that, I think that the 137 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 3: role here is manifest uncertainty. We really can't predict what 138 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 3: will happen or why, but you can expect that things 139 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 3: will be linked together in unexpected ways, and so you 140 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 3: might find that we are exemple in a trade deal 141 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 3: if we do something else that's not related to trade. 142 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 2: What do you think the US will want to see 143 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 2: from New Zealand going forward over the next four years. 144 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 3: I think political support will be very important for initiatives 145 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:41,679 Speaker 3: that the United States wants, and these will be from 146 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,719 Speaker 3: reforming the international system through to bilateral initiatives that may 147 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 3: involve security. And so they certainly won't expect us to 148 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 3: be critical of any other decisions of mister Trump, because 149 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 3: these aren't seen as policy decisions. They're seen as personal decisions, 150 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: and they can be held quite detrimentally against us. So 151 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 3: I think as he reforms the international architecture, he will 152 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 3: expect us to step in behind and not voice opposition. 153 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 3: That will get quite hard as things like the details 154 00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 3: of Ukraine's peace agreement come to the fore, and we 155 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 3: may have to swallow a peace agreement which we have 156 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 3: vocally and strategically defended Ukraine for. We may now have 157 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 3: to find that some of the things that we hold sacrisant, 158 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 3: like non annexation of territory, accountability for crimes, freedom of 159 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 3: countries to join the security arrangements that they want, may 160 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,199 Speaker 3: all get pushed to one side. Because mister Trump will 161 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 3: make a peace here with mister Putin. We will either 162 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 3: have to be silent or if the international world divides 163 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 3: and Europe forms a different group. Have to choose between 164 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 3: mister Trump and the European approach. 165 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: Defense has become a big talking point in recent months. 166 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 2: Trump has reaffirmed his previous wishes to see the US's 167 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 2: partners spend more on defense, and both Luxeen and Peters 168 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 2: have been pushing that message as well, including in India. 169 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 2: But Trump wanted to see a two percent of GDP 170 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 2: go towards defense when he was last in office. That 171 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 2: would be double what our government committed in last year's budget. 172 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 2: So can we afford to invest this much in defense? 173 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: And what would happen if we aren't being shown to 174 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 2: pull our weight. 175 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 3: I think two percent now is your minimum opening bid. 176 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 3: Countries in Europe are getting closer to three or four percent. 177 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 3: We are in a very concerning arms race right now. 178 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 3: That the two percent is your minimum, and that that's 179 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:29,320 Speaker 3: the NATO target that we're being tied to. Mister Luxon 180 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: has expressed approval of the two percent target, But the 181 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 3: question we have is when will that be achieved by 182 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 3: and what kit you will buy and from who. The 183 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 3: question of affordability is a horrible question because every piece 184 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 3: of military kit you buy has an opportunity cost, which 185 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 3: means it's not being spent on housing, health or education. 186 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 3: The challenge we've got is that the world is changing 187 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 3: so quickly and the risks are rising. That countries similar 188 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 3: to us have the same challenge, but they too have 189 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 3: to make the same commitment of a two percent or 190 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 3: more change. It's not like anyone's flush with money right now, 191 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 3: but everyone's facing the same risks and needs to prepare forward. 192 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 6: It a high stakes phone call today between President Trump 193 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 6: and Russian President Vladimir Putin. 194 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:20,959 Speaker 5: We're getting down to a very critical stage. 195 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 6: It's believed to be the first time Trump and Putin 196 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 6: are speaking to each other since Ukraine agreed to a 197 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 6: thirty day ceasefire with US negotiators a week ago. Still 198 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 6: no guarantees from Russia. 199 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 3: And it's a bad situation in Russia, and it's a 200 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 3: bad situation in Ukraine. 201 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 6: What's happening in Ukraine is not good. 202 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 1: But we're going to see if we can work a 203 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: peace agreement. 204 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 6: Both leaders said to discuss the future of the war 205 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 6: in Ukraine, including possibly how land and assets in Ukraine 206 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 6: could be divided. 207 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:58,079 Speaker 2: Speaking of defense and conflicts, Luxon took part in a 208 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 2: virtual leader's summit for the Coalition of the Willing so 209 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 2: countries backing Ukraine and looking to deploy peacekeepers to the region. Now, 210 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 2: the US's stance on Ukraine has flip flopped a bit 211 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 2: in recent weeks, hey since we last spoke. Currently, the 212 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 2: US and Ukraine have agreed to the potential of a ceasefire, 213 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 2: but Russia doesn't seem very interested in The US currently 214 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 2: isn't doing much to force them to the table. Despite 215 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 2: a mammoth two hour call between Putin and Trump. Where 216 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 2: does this leave New Zealand? Do you think we will 217 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 2: be siding with Europe more on this one? 218 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:36,120 Speaker 3: It's too early to say. And the ceasefire that's been 219 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 3: negotiated between mister Putin and mister Trump is at an 220 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 3: early stage, and they've agreed a partial ceasefire to cover 221 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 3: energy infrastructure. They're going to talk about a maritime ceasefire 222 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 3: over the Black Sea. There's no discussion of a ceasefire 223 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,079 Speaker 3: on the front lines where the soldier's arm but mister 224 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 3: Putin has made it clear that he expects that there 225 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 3: will be no rearmament or resupply of uk position, which 226 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 3: puts Ukraine at a distinct disadvantage. There's no international observers 227 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 3: to see whether the small bit that they've agreed will 228 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 3: actually even be monitored independently. Mister Putin seems to be 229 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 3: saying that they want the ceasefire to be linked to 230 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 3: substantive peace negotiations at the same time, which means that 231 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 3: he will have leverage that Zelensky doesn't have in the 232 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,559 Speaker 3: way that if the negotiations go badly, the partial ceasefire 233 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 3: will break quite quickly. For New Zealand, what this means 234 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 3: is we have to see what the terms of the 235 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 3: agreement are. And it appears that mister Putin and mister 236 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 3: Trump have agreed that there will be some annexation of territory. 237 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 3: And that's even before we discuss issues of compensation, accountability 238 00:13:45,240 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 3: and sovereign choices of alliances. With that one principle of 239 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 3: annexation of territory being given over that this goes against 240 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 3: the UN Charter, that this goes against basic principles of 241 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 3: international law. And so if the Americans and Russian degree 242 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 3: this is the first step for peace, we're instantly going 243 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 3: to find a reaction from Europe. And because the Europeans 244 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 3: might say no, we don't accept this, and we will 245 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 3: continue to support Ukraine. If that does happen, New Zealand 246 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 3: will have to say, well, we're either going to follow 247 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 3: Trump's approach or the approach of the Europeans with the 248 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 3: Coalition of the Willing. This is a discussion between France 249 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 3: and Britain at the forefront about whether there would be 250 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 3: some soldiers who would be put as a security blanket 251 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 3: for Ukraine against further potential aggression by Russia. At the moment, 252 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 3: mister Putin seems to have no tolerance for this idea, 253 00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 3: and so we've got to be careful about talking ourselves 254 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 3: into a circle until we know exactly what the parameters 255 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 3: are that Trump and Putin want. 256 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: Should we be taking a harderligne on this. 257 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 3: We are doing the correct thing being part of the 258 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 3: discussion of the Coalition of the Willing, and we are 259 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 3: doing the correct thing to show our willingness to be 260 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 3: part of this approach. It's premage sure to try to 261 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 3: say what path we should take until we can see 262 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 3: where Putin and Trump land, and only then we should 263 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 3: be able to respond. But at the same time we 264 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 3: need to be very careful that we don't sacrifice principles 265 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 3: about international rules and international order which help keep peace 266 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 3: and security for all of the world and benefit countries 267 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 3: like New Zealand. 268 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 2: Our New Zealand has a unique relationship with China compared 269 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 2: to our other Five Eyes partners. We tend to get 270 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 2: along with them pretty well, even when Australia and the 271 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 2: US are at odds with them. Are there any key lessons, 272 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 2: any dos or don'ts from that relationship we could look 273 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 2: at applying to the Trump administration, to India, to any 274 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 2: of those tense geopolitical situations. 275 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 1: At the moment, I think. 276 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 3: That the diplomatic relationship with China is good. It could 277 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 3: be better. There was concerning what happened over the Cook 278 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 3: Islands and this will be difficult to manage in the future. 279 00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 3: I think the economic relationship is excellent. I think the 280 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 3: cultural relationship could be strengthened, and we need to find 281 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: more initiatives between countries to build bonds bilaterally and in 282 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 3: the region. But the lesson for the United States and 283 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 3: New Zealand is that with China we speak freely behind 284 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 3: closed doors and the discussions are robust and forthright, but 285 00:16:05,560 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 3: we try not to conduct those in public. But that 286 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 3: is beginning to change now as some actions come to 287 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 3: our attention. But with America, I think it's the same. 288 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 3: We need to be able to speak very clearly behind 289 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 3: closed doors, but be very careful what we say in public, 290 00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 3: because whether we like it or not, some misplaced words 291 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 3: could have implications of ten to millions of dollars for 292 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 3: New Zealand exporters. 293 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 2: Would you like to see us taking a stronger stance 294 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 2: in any realm the same way we did, say forty 295 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 2: years ago, with nuclear testing, Yes, yeah, I would. 296 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 3: I think the one area I'm particularly concerned about is 297 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 3: the arms race and what we need to be more forthright. 298 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 3: Even though we must increase our capacity, we need to 299 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 3: consider that the choice of how we increase our capacity, 300 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 3: because warfare in betwenty first century is very different to 301 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 3: warfare in betwentieth century, and so we're going to have 302 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 3: to work out who our suppliers are and what the 303 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,520 Speaker 3: obligations of those shall be. But at the same time, 304 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 3: we need to redouble our reference for disarmament and international 305 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 3: debates around this, whether it's artificial intelligence and nuclear planning, 306 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: whether it's the fragmentation of the architecture which keeps nuclear 307 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 3: weapons at Bay. We need to become more engaged than 308 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 3: we have in recent years, and so we need to 309 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 3: almost have a dual process where we increase our own 310 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,240 Speaker 3: security but we raise our voice to try to mitigate 311 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 3: the threat of nuclear weapons. 312 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us out. 313 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 3: You're welcome, Chelsea. 314 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 2: That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You 315 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 2: can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage 316 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 2: at enzadherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is 317 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 2: produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also 318 00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: our sound engineer. 319 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 1: I'm Chelsea Daniels. 320 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you 321 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow for another look 322 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 2: behind the headlines.