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Speaker 1: Ever do for ze Ellen well business optimism, how good

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Speaker 1: is this keeps growing? It's up five points in October

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Speaker 1: alone to sixty six points. Businesses are still rating their

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Speaker 1: own activity much lower though, at negative eleven, but that's

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Speaker 1: still at the highest level since March. Sharon z Ona

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Speaker 1: is A and z's chief economist and with.

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Speaker 2: Us, Hey, Sharon, good evening. What do you put this

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Speaker 2: optimism down to? Is this basically the rate cuts?

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Speaker 3: I'd say so, I mean, when it boils down to it,

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Speaker 3: the slow down scene caused by higher interest rates. So

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Speaker 3: why wouldn't lower interest rates be the solution. There hasn't

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Speaker 3: been a lot else going on. There's obviously some fiscal

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Speaker 3: cutting that's hurting Wellington and the export markets in China

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Speaker 3: maybe an't so great at the moment, but but overall

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Speaker 3: the slowdown has really been a result of interest rates.

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Speaker 3: So in that context, perhaps not surprising to see a

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Speaker 3: fairly enthusiastic response to rates now coming down.

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing in the construction sector.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a really interesting one because the construction sector

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Speaker 3: is by far the most sensitive to interest rates, and

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Speaker 3: it's just generally on a bigger rollercoaster than the rest

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Speaker 3: of the economy. It was booming the most in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one, but it's actually been the weakest since early

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty three in terms of what they are reporting

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Speaker 3: for experienced activity as opposed to their expectations. But they've

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Speaker 3: also had the biggest lift in that. So this isn't

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Speaker 3: just the hope and optimism looking forward that fewer construction

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Speaker 3: terms are now reporting that they're less busy than a

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Speaker 3: year ago. They're still the majority, so you know, it's

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Speaker 3: still pretty tough times, absolutely, but things are just perhaps

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Speaker 3: starting to look up a little.

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Speaker 2: What are you expecting in the unemployment numbers next week?

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Speaker 3: We're picking four point nine. There, reserve banks at five.

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Speaker 3: I've seen an estimate of five point one out there,

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Speaker 3: so we're all there or thereabouts. The number can surprise

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Speaker 3: us because it's impacted not only by how many people

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Speaker 3: are employed, but also by how many people are looking

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Speaker 3: for work, and that can actually jump around quite a bit,

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Speaker 3: so the details will matter, but we're all focusing at

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Speaker 3: number around five.

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Speaker 2: Right, four point nine from you guys on the path

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Speaker 2: to what, we're.

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Speaker 3: Picking around five and a half. That seems to be

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Speaker 3: the general expectation. There are some people picking that could

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Speaker 3: go as high as six. Hopefully not, but you know,

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Speaker 3: in the early nineteen nineties it went well into double digits.

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Speaker 3: But there in our survey too, there was some good news,

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Speaker 3: employment intentions lifting strongly, and actually firms reported past employment

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Speaker 3: also lifting. Again, still negative, but it does suggest that

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Speaker 3: perhaps the margin some ferns are choosing to keep their

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Speaker 3: staff in anticipation of better time.

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Speaker 2: Love them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's great, hey, Sharon, thank you very much, appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: Sharon's on ass chief economist. For more from Heather Duplessy

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Speaker 1: Allen Drive, listen live to news Talks the'd be from

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Speaker 1: four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio