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Speaker 1: And solid harbor asset management with US now. Hey Shane,

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Speaker 1: Hello Heather Shane. You've been at the New Zealand AGM today.

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Speaker 1: How's it looking like?

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Speaker 2: It's been a really tough environment for a New Zion.

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Speaker 2: Despite this tough newsion economy and what's really massive supply

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Speaker 2: channel shues, they've actually provide a slightly positive update to day,

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Speaker 2: driven by better cost control, revenue better than expected, talking

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Speaker 2: about a little grin shoots and to the small medium

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Speaker 2: sized enterprises corporate travel Domestic still got sixteen percent of

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Speaker 2: their fleet grounded by lack a part supply chain. They're

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Speaker 2: saying could get through the worst of that by early

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six, and they're even talking about growing a

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Speaker 2: network again to three to four percent. But it's all

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Speaker 2: been driven by things they're doing internallyders, some transformation programs,

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Speaker 2: talking about three to four hundred men savings, a couple

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Speaker 2: of interesting nuggets in there, some new products, some new

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Speaker 2: services will be apparently released pretty soon, but certainly investing

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Speaker 2: for the growth up to eight hundred million of capital

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Speaker 2: investment and per annum, so massive investment. Talking about continuing

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Speaker 2: with their Clean Skies initiative by twenty thirty bearing ten

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Speaker 2: percent of sustainable owned viewers. But yeah, I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of these enhancements they've been working hard on last

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Speaker 2: year or two post COVID starting to come through. It's

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Speaker 2: still very tough.

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Speaker 1: So we are, i think, part way through the company

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Speaker 1: reporting the season for the September period. What's the tone

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Speaker 1: that you're getting from the ins and xlisted companies right now?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, we are in to think of it hither

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Speaker 2: You're right at the margin results are looking slightly better

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Speaker 2: than expected, and it just suggests that the earnings for

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Speaker 2: ZE own companies may be basing again. Like in New Zealand,

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Speaker 2: it's been some tough runs, but we are seeing some

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Speaker 2: real spread of outcomes global logistics something the main forre

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Speaker 2: it better result starting to say there's in some green

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Speaker 2: shoots a bit of improvement. Reles that companies like Goodman

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Speaker 2: and Argasy saying, hey, we're seeing things getting a little

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Speaker 2: bit better, but we're not getting to eat it ourselves.

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Speaker 2: And we've got companies that may people they've bounced back

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Speaker 2: from a really tough a whole space lad and then

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Speaker 2: we've got companies okay to total one out of the box,

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Speaker 2: big upgrade. So yeah, I think management teams still being cautious.

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Speaker 2: They're becoming increasingly cautiously optimistic and bit of a contrast there,

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Speaker 2: and we think that might just provide a bit of

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Speaker 2: upside for the ze own company earnings.

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Speaker 1: Hey, are we still are we still expecting a fifty

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Speaker 1: basis point cut this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think that's right. The market is saying fifty

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Speaker 2: basis points. You know, the data continues to point to

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Speaker 2: inflation falling. We are seeing businesses a little bit more confident.

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Speaker 2: There's another reading later this week on Thursday, actually after

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Speaker 2: the Reserve Banking Design is due to report. But you know, again,

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Speaker 2: employment level is that so thing we're going to watch

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Speaker 2: for that There is actually put unemployments and the creep

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Speaker 2: up Reserve Bank may want to get ahead of that.

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Speaker 2: This is of course their last meeting before mid February

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Speaker 2: when they come back after the summer break. So they

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Speaker 2: have maintained this path of less regrets, which means they

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Speaker 2: don't want to be the reserve bank that lets the

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Speaker 2: inflation gene out of the bottle by not by easing

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Speaker 2: interest rates to really, so I probably want to keep

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Speaker 2: it a little but not get too carried away. So

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Speaker 2: A three quarter point seven five percent cut, That would

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Speaker 2: be a surprise. So fifty is the odds on money

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Speaker 2: at this stage.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Hey, over in the US shape, we've obviously had

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Speaker 1: the Trump trades push everything up and has come back

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Speaker 1: a wee bit. Now what are you looking when you

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Speaker 1: look at that? What do you think that means for

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Speaker 1: returns for the U S share market and then for

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Speaker 1: US as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, you've seen some extremes there. There's definitely some

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Speaker 2: of the leveraged exchange trade of phones, the cryptophones, all

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Speaker 2: the sort of speculative elements have really gone hot. But

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Speaker 2: there's four things that we're looking at that are sort

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Speaker 2: of seeing people will just be a bit more cautious

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Speaker 2: of recent days. Firstly, we've seen the Central Bank, the Reserve,

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Speaker 2: Central Bank Reserve, US Federal Reserve. Some of the commentators

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Speaker 2: just stepping back from cut expectations say saying, hey, the

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Speaker 2: complation is not going away so quick quickly as we thought.

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Speaker 2: We're going to want to just be a bit slower

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Speaker 2: people are watching. Secondly, the Ukraine war getting broader. Thirdly,

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Speaker 2: certainly some of the policy certainty around some of the

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Speaker 2: appointments that mister Trump's proposing is just challenging a few

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Speaker 2: parts of the economy. And finally, I think you know,

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Speaker 2: we've seen some results, truly impressive results, but not enough,

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Speaker 2: not enough for expectations. And so normally we've see the

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Speaker 2: US market rally into the end of the year, into

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Speaker 2: december've already seen four and a half five percent rally.

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Speaker 2: It's a long way for us here in New Zealand.

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Speaker 2: We've got to be careful about moatility around these political appointments,

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Speaker 2: particularly what that means for US bond markets and shure markets.

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Speaker 2: And certainly this more expansion in US fiscal spending AI

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Speaker 2: the government spending more money that has potential to keep

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Speaker 2: the reserve bank interest rates higher and the US viedual

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Speaker 2: reserve higher, and so that could mean that US dollar

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Speaker 2: stays stronger, makes it tougher for holidays.

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Speaker 1: Heither totally does Shane. Thanks very much appreciated, Shane Solly

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Speaker 1: Harbor Asset Management. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,

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