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Speaker 1: A couple of things. Won the job's numbers unemployment up

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Speaker 1: to four point eight not as bad as they thought. Also,

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Speaker 1: we got the Reserve bank stability report. This week's of

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Speaker 1: the Finance Minister Nicola willis with us. Very good morning

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Speaker 1: to you.

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Speaker 2: Good morning mate.

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Speaker 1: Do you fear Trump and tariffs?

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Speaker 2: Look new the olympare's a great relationship with the United States,

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Speaker 2: and we're looking forward to building a good relationship with

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Speaker 2: the new Trump administration. Of course, for a trading nation,

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Speaker 2: we continue to want to grow our trade with the

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Speaker 2: United States of America and we will look to do so.

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Speaker 1: I was saying before the break, They've never been free traders.

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Speaker 1: We've never had a proper free trade deal with them

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Speaker 1: under Clinton, Democrats or Republicans. And yet if you look

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Speaker 1: at the numbers we're selling in there, and we're selling well,

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Speaker 1: are you hopeful that can continue?

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Speaker 2: We'll look out its talks into the States through sixteen

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Speaker 2: percent in the past year. Do Americans like our wine,

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Speaker 2: they like our red meat, they like coming here as tourists,

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Speaker 2: they like our services, and I think that will continue

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Speaker 2: to be the case. We also like American products, So

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Speaker 2: trade is ultimately about the exchange of value. That makes

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Speaker 2: sense on both sides. I think it will continue to

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Speaker 2: make sense for both of our nations to trade with

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Speaker 2: each other.

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Speaker 1: Right, jobs yesterday four point eight not as bad as

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Speaker 1: they thought. There is more to come. But I just

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Speaker 1: wonder if whatever is to come is not going to

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Speaker 1: be as bad as some might have thought.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're right, Treasury was forecasting that inflation would be

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Speaker 2: at five point two percent by now, or the bank

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Speaker 2: set it would be five, and it came in at

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Speaker 2: four point eight. The problems, though, with getting too optimistic

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Speaker 2: at this point is that inflation is always comes down

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Speaker 2: and then the economy starts recovering, and then employment is

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Speaker 2: a lagging factor. So even while the economy is recovering,

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Speaker 2: unemployment can stick around a bit. So we can expect

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Speaker 2: it to keep rising a little bit over the next

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Speaker 2: little while. But yeah, maybe it doesn't go as high

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Speaker 2: as some of the more pessimistic forecasts we're saying.

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Speaker 1: I see your grind for the rest of the year

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Speaker 1: and maybe into next year. But those who say it

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Speaker 1: will peak at six I think are wrong. And if

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Speaker 1: you read the b Thing today this week, which I'm

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Speaker 1: sure you did, there talk around mortgage stress and that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. I just think they're too pessimistic, aren't they.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, as I always say, there's mixed things happening

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Speaker 2: across the economy. What we know is that with interest

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Speaker 2: rates coming down, that has had some immediate impacts. You've

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Speaker 2: got such a large group of New Zealanders now with

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Speaker 2: a mortgage that they're refixing within six months, So you're

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Speaker 2: going to see an immediate effect coming into the economy

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Speaker 2: of lower interest rates. That is confidence. You're seeing it

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Speaker 2: coming through in the business confidence numbers, Mike. People are

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Speaker 2: still saying, look a bit worried about how the economy

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Speaker 2: is right now, but feeling very optimistic about next year.

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Speaker 2: In fact, those numbers that are about ten year high

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Speaker 2: year ahead optimism. So those are all positive things. We

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Speaker 2: can see those green shoots coming through. But I am

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Speaker 2: not going to say that everything is going to be

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Speaker 2: wonderful yet, because there's always downside risks as well.

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Speaker 1: No fair enough, Hey, when are you coming on the

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Speaker 1: program to tell us all about the future of Key

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Speaker 1: we Bank.

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Speaker 2: A look. I hope to do that later this year.

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Speaker 2: I haven't taken proposals to cabinet yet, although I do

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Speaker 2: intend to do that next month and I'm optimistic that

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Speaker 2: we can come up with something that will allow Kiwibank

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Speaker 2: to have more capital, that will allow it to grow,

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Speaker 2: that will bring more competition into retail banking.

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Speaker 1: Good stuff. Nice to talk to you, Nichola Willis, Finance Minister.

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